Friday, November 16, 2018

Friday Five: Shanghai, Valencia, Australia, Macau

We are into part two of this weekend's preview and it is mostly in the Asia-Pacific region. We have an endurance race and a sprint race, a grand prix and a rally and a few titles to decide. A few drivers look to retain their crowns, others are looking to ascend to the throne. Meanwhile, some motorcycles will race in Spain.

6 Hours of Shanghai
The fifth round of the 2018-19 FIA World Endurance Championship season and the final round of the calendar year 2018 takes place at Shanghai with the sixth editions of the 6 Hours of Shanghai. It is the final time the race will be six hours in duration. Next season's visit to Shanghai will be a four-hour race.

The #8 Toyota of Fernando Alonso, Sébastien Buemi and Kazuki Nakajima lead the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with 84 points and has a 13-point lead over the sister #7 Toyota of Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and José María López after the #7 Toyota won at Fuji last month. The #1 Rebellion Racing Rebellion of Thomas Laurent Gustavo Menezes and Mathias Beche trail the #8 Toyota by 21 points with André Lotterer and Neel Jani 33 points back in the #3 Rebellion.

One point covers the top three LMP2 teams heading into Shanghai. The #36 Signatech Alpine of Nicolas Lapierre, Pierre Thiriet and André Negrão lead the championship with 87 points with the two Jackie Chan DC Racing entries tied on 86 points. The #37 Oreca of Jazeman Jaafar, Weiron Tan and Nabil Jefri won the most recent round at Fuji while the #38 Oreca of Ho-Pin Tung, Gabriel Aubry and Stéphane Richelmi has two victories this season, both victories coming at tracks that start with the letter "S" in Spa-Francorchamps and Silverstone.

Michael Christensen and Kévin Éstre have control of the World Endurance GTE Drivers' Championship. The #92 Porsche has won two of four races this season and sits on 96 points. The #92 Porsche has finished on the podium in every race this season. The #66 Ford GT of Stefan Mücke and Olivier Pla trail by 31 points after a pair of sixth-place finishes in the last two races after winning at Spa-Francorchamps and finishing third at Le Mans. The #51 AF Corse Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi won at Silverstone and despite that being the duo's only podium finish of the season, it has them third in the championship on 55.5 points.

Porsche has won three consecutive races in GTE-Am. The #80 Dempsey-Proton Racing Porsche of Matt Campbell, Christian Ried and Julien Andlauer lead the championship with 80 points after victories at Le Mans and Silverstone. The #56 Team Project 1 Porsche of Jörg Bergmeister, Patrick Lindsey and Egidio Perfetti won the most recent race at Fuji and are second in the championship on 66 points. The #90 TF Sport Aston Martin of Salih Yoluç and Charlie Eastwood have finished second in three of four races this year and are on 54 points, two ahead of the factory #98 Aston Martin of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda. Jonathan Adam will be in the #90 Aston Martin for the third consecutive race.

Corvette Racing has entered a Corvette for this round. It is the first time Corvette has entered a car in a WEC event that was not Le Mans or in the United States. Oliver Gavin and Tommy Milner will split the #64 Corvette. Gavin and Milner finished third in the IMSA GTLM championship this year and they won at Long Beach.

The 6 Hours of Shanghai will begin at 10:00 p.m. ET on Saturday November 17th.

MotoGP
Marc Márquez clinched the MotoGP title three races ago in Japan but the Spaniard could end the 2018 season with ten victories.

It would be only the second time Márquez has won ten races in a MotoGP season, he won 13 races in 2014. He also had ten victories in the 2010 125cc season and he won the title that year as well. If Márquez is to break into double figures in the win column, he will have to do it at one of his most elusive tracks. He has only won twice at Valencia with a Moto2 victory in 2012 and a MotoGP victory in 2014. He does have six consecutive podium finishes at Valencia across all series.

Andrea Dovizioso will finish second in the championship regardless of what happens on Sunday. Dovizioso has never won at Valencia and an Italian has not won in MotoGP at the track since Marco Melandri in 2005. The last Italian to win at Valencia in any category was Michele Pirro in 2011 while in Moto2. Dovizioso's only podium finishes at the track were a second in 125cc in 2004 and a third in MotoGP in 2011.

The battle is for third between the Yamaha teammate Valentino Rossi and Maverick Viñales. Rossi has 195 points and a two-point lead over his Spanish teammate. Rossi is looking to avoid his first winless season since 2012, his final year with Ducati. Rossi has never had a winless season with Yamaha. Rossi and Viñales each have two victories at Valencia. Rossi won the 2003 and 2004 MotoGP races while Viñales won in the 125cc class in 2011 and in Moto3 in 2013.

Álex Rins and Johann Zarco are tied for fifth in the championship on 149 points. Rins and Zarco finished second and third in the most recent round from Sepang. Rins currently holds the tiebreaker as  both riders each have two runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes. Rins has finished fourth twice while Zarco's next best finish is fifth. Zarco finished second in last year's race from Valencia and he won the Moto2 race in 2016. Rins has yet to win at the track.

Cal Crutchlow is a point behind Rins and Zarco in seventh with Danilo Petrucci five points behind the battle in eighth. Andrea Iannone is ninth on 133 points and Jorge Lorenzo will look to return to competition after missing the last four races due to injury. Lorenzo sits in tenth on 130 points.

The MotoGP race is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET on Sunday November 18th.

Moto2
The Moto2 championship has been wrapped up and MotoGP-bound Francesco Bagnaia will look to close out his career in the series with his ninth victory of the season.

Bagnaia has seven podium finishes in the last eight races and he has never finished on the podium at Valencia with his best finish being fourth last year. Bagnaia will move up to ride for Pramac Racing Ducati next year in MotoGP. Miguel Oliveira will also be moving up to MotoGP in 2019 and he will finish second in the championship regardless of what happens on Sunday. Oliveira has two victories and 11 podium finishes but has not won since Brno in August. Oliveira will ride a Tech3 KTM next season.

Brad Binder will stay in Moto2 next season and he is looking for his fourth victory of 2018. Binder's three victories this year are his only podium finishes in 2018.

Fifteen points cover fourth to seventh in the championship. Lorenzo Baldassarri has 162 points and has a five-point gap over Álex Márquez. Joan Mír is two points behind Márquez and Sepang winner Luca Marini is seventh on 147 points.

Oliveira has won twice at Valencia, in 2015 in Moto3 and last year in Moto2. Binder won the 2016 Moto3 race from the track.

The Moto2 finale will take place at 6:20 a.m. ET on Sunday November 18th.

Moto3
Jorge Martín will move up to be Brad Binder's teammate next year in Moto2 but the 2018 Moto3 champion will look to close the season with his eighth victory of the year and his second consecutive Moto3 victory at Valencia. Martín won the most recent race at Sepang and he has started on pole position in the last two races.

Marco Bezzecchi is second in the championship on 214 points and he holds a nine-point advantage over Fabio Di Giannantonio. Bezzecchi has won three times this year while Di Giannantonio has won twice. Enea Bastianini is fourth on 166 points with Lorenzo Dalla Porta rounding out the top five on 151 points. Bastianini's only victory this season was at Barcelona in June. Dalla Porta won at Misano in September. Dalle Porta has been the runner-up finisher in three of the last four races.

There have been six different winners in the last six Moto3 races from Valencia and those six winners represented five different countries. An Italian has not won the 125cc/Moto3 race at Valencia since Simone Corsi in 2008.

The Moto3 race will take place at 5:00 a.m. ET on Sunday November 18th.

Rally Australia
The World Rally Championship will decided at the finale and three drivers could take home the top prize in Australia. This is the first time the WRC title will be decided in the final round of the season since 2011.

M-Sport Ford driver Sébastien Ogier seeks his sixth consecutive championship and the Frenchman re-took the championship lead in the last round from Catalunya. Ogier has 204 points and a three-point lead over Hyundai driver Thierry Neuville. Toyota's Ott Tänak has an outside at the title with the Estonian 23 points behind Ogier.

Ogier and Tänak each have four victories this year while Neuville has won three times. All three drivers have six podium finishes this season.

Three different drivers have won the last three editions of Rally Australia with Neuville entering as the defending championship. Ogier won in 2015 and Andreas Mikkelsen won in 2016. Ogier's 2015 victory was his third Rally Australia victory. Toyota's two Rally Australia victories were with Juha Kankkunen in 1989 and 1993.

The last time a driver overcame a deficit to win the World Rally Championship in the final round was Sébastien Loeb in 2009, who trailed Mikko Hirvonen by one point entering the finale. Loeb won Wales Rally GB while Hirvonen finished second and Loeb took the title by one point.

Guia Race of Macau
Seven drivers are alive for the World Touring Car Cup championship entering the final round form Macau.

Gabriele Tarquini won the most recent race from Suzuka and the Hyundai driver extended his championship total to 291 points. Fellow Hyundai driver Yvan Muller trails Tarquini by 39 points with Muller's M Racing-YMR teammate Thed Björk rounding out an all-Hyundai top three and 53 points behind Tarquini.

Pepe Oriola is the first non-Hyundai driver in the championship and the SEAT driver sits on 227 points with Audi driver Jean-Karl Vernay on 216 points. Honda driver Esteban Guerrieri has 213 points and Tarquini's teammate Norbert Michelisz is the final driver mathematically alive for the title on 212 points.

Tarquini and Björk are tied for the most victories this season with four apiece. Muller and Vernay each have three victories while Oriola, Guerrieri and Michelisz all enter the finale with just one victory.

It is Macau and Rob Huff is entered. Huff has won nine Macau races and he has had at least one victory in eight of the last ten years at Macau. Huff is ninth in the championship and he has victories at the Hungaroring and Suzuka this season.

Tarquini was the 2009 World Touring Car Championship while Muller won the WTCC title four times. Björk won the WTCC title last year while Vernay won the TCR International Series championship in 2017. Oriola, Guerrieri and Michelisz are all going for their first championship.

The first WTCC race will be at 1:25 a.m. ET on Saturday November 17th. The final two races of the season will be at 7:20 p.m. ET on Saturday November 17th and at 10:00 p.m. on Saturday November 17th.

Macau Grand Prix
This weekend marks the 65th Macau Grand Prix and 28 cars are entered for the event.

Dan Ticktum won last year's race and he will defend his victory. Ticktum will drive for Motopark and he is coming off a runner-up finish in the European Formula Three championship to Mick Schumacher. Schumacher will be at Macau driving for Theodore Racing by Prema. Schumacher defeated Ticktum by 57 points for the title.

Ticktum will have Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters race winner Joel Eriksson as a teammate as well as Ferdinand Habsburg. Habsburg led last year's Macau Grand Prix into the final corner of the race but hit the barrier on exit and slid to a third place finish. Eriksson was the fastest qualifier last year at Macau and he started second for the main race before retiring after two laps.

Callum Ilott started on pole position last year at Macau and he is back as one of four Carlin entries alongside Jehan Daruvala, Sacha Fenestraz and Yoshiaki Katayama. Ilott is currently third in the GP3 Series with one round to go next week from Abu Dhabi.

Team TOM's has entered the All-Japan Formula Three champion Sho Tsuboi and vice-champion Ritomo Miyata. Tsuboi won 17 of 19 races including ten consecutive victories to close out the season. Miyata won the other two races with Tsuboi finishing second in each.

B-Max Racing Team will have Super Formula race winner Yuhi Sekiguchi in car alongside Álex Palou. Sekiguchi finished fourth in this year's championship and his lone victory was in the rain-shortened race from Okayama.

Jake Hughes leads the F3 Asian Championship with a round to go and he will drive for Hitech GP. Hughes has won all nine races he has entered this season. He missed the second round of the season from Ningbo and the season closes next week from Sepang.

Ticktum could become the seventh driver to win the Macau Grand Prix in consecutive years joining John MacDonald, Arsenio Laurel, Vern Schuppan, Riccardo Patrese, Geoff Lees, Edoardo Mortara and Felix Rosenqvist. Schumacher's father Michael won the race in 1990 and his uncle Ralf won it in 1995.

The qualifying race will take place at 8:00 a.m. ET on Friday November 16th with the Macau Grand Prix scheduled for 2:30 a.m. ET on Sunday November 18th

FIA GT World Cup
This year marks the fourth FIA GT World Cup from Macau. Fifteen drivers from five manufactures are entered in this year's race.

Edoardo Mortara is the defending champion and he is back in the #1 Mercedes for Mercedes-AMG Team GruppeM Racing. His teammates will be the 2015 FIA GT World Cup winner Maro Engel in the #888 Mercedes and this year's Blancpain GT Series champion Raffaele Marciello in the #999 Mercedes.

Audi won this race in 2016 and it looks to reclaim the title with four drivers entered. Christopher Haase is coming off a runner-up finish in the Intercontinental GT Challenge and he will be in the #28 Audi for Audi Sport Team Rutronik. Robin Frijns had two runner-up finishes in the DTM season this year and he will be in the #66 Audi for Audi Sport Team WRT with Dries Vanthoor as his teammate in the #88 Audi. Frijns was the runner-up finisher last year to Mortara. Adderly Fong will drive the #77 Audi for Zun Motorsport Crew.

Laurens Vanthoor won the 2016 race for Audi but the Belgian looks to get Porsche its first victory in the FIA GT World Cup. Vanthoor will drive the #911 Porsche for Manthey Racing with Le Mans winner and World Endurance Drivers' Champion Earl Bamber as his teammate in the #912 Porsche. Craft-Bamboo Racing will have Darryl O'Young and Mathieu Jaminet in the #55 Porsche and #991 Porsche respectively.

The only non-German manufacture entered for the FIA GT World Cup is Nissan and Nissan has three entries. Tsugio Matsuda leads the charge. The two-time Super GT GT500 champion will drive the #23 Nissan with Oliver Jarvis in the #35 Nissan and Alexandre Imperatori in the #18 Nissan.

BMW has one bullet in the chamber and it is DTM race winner Augusto Farfus. The Brazilian will drive the #42 BMW for Team Schnitzer.

The FIA GT World Cup will take place at 11:25 p.m. ET on Saturday November 17th.

Over or Under?
1. Over or Under: 188.5 laps completed by the 6 Hours of Shanghai overall winner?
2. Over or Under: 3.5 riders in the top ten of the championship improving their championship position after Sunday's race?
3. Over or Under: 15.5 points for Brad Binder this weekend?
4. Over or Under: 3.5 seconds covering the top five of the Moto3 race?
5. Over or Under: 0.5 Australians scoring points in Rally Australia?
6. Over or Under: 2.5 total championships between WTCC/TCR for this year's World Touring Car Cup champion after Sunday?
7. Over or Under: 1.5 teams on the podium of the Macau Grand Prix?
8. Over or Under: 1.5 manufactures on the podium of the FIA GT World Cup?

Last Week's Over/Unders 
1. Over or Under: 91.5 minutes elapsed time for the Motegi race? (Under: The race took 91 minutes and nine seconds).
2. Over or Under: 0.5 retirements on lap one? (Under: There were no retirements of lap one).
3. Over or Under: 14.5 stage points for Chase Elliott? (Under: Elliott had 14 stage points).
4. Over or Under: 20.5 being the worst finishing position for a championship eligible driver? (Over: Justin Allgaier finished 24th).
5. Over or Under: 3.5 starting position for the race winner? (Over: Brett Moffitt won from fifth).
Last Week: 3 Unders; 2 Overs. Overall: Unders 26; Overs 21

Predictions
1. Nothing controversial, such as a disqualification from a session, happens to a Toyota entry.
2. Jorge Lorenzo gains at least one position in the championship.
3. A ride that is not heading to MotoGP in 2019 wins the Moto2 race.
4. An Italian wins the Moto3 race.
5. The WRC champion does not win Rally Australia.
6. Rob Huff wins a race but only one race from Macau.
7. Dan Ticktum does not repeat in the Macau Grand Prix but he finishes in the top five.
8. A new manufacture wins the FIA GT World Cup.

Last Week's Predictions
1. There will be at least one European race winner this weekend (Wrong! All winning drivers were Japanese).
2. The race lap record is broken by at least a half-second (Correct! Valtteri Bottas broke it by 0.504 seconds).
3. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. all remain championship eligible after Phoenix (Correct! All three are still alive).
4. The top three finishers combine to lead at least 170 laps (Wrong! The top three led a combined 95 laps).
5. There will be fewer than six cautions (Correct! There were five).
Last Week: 4/7. Overall: 24.5/42