Wednesday, November 21, 2018

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2018 Season

We have done it! We have reached the final IndyCar Wrap-Up and it is the champions! It is Chip Ganassi Racing. The team shrunk to two cars after seven years running a four-car operation and it worked. A familiar face was responsible for bringing the hardware back to Chip Ganassi Racing for the team's 12th IndyCar championship.

The picture says it all
Scott Dixon
It was another year in which Scott Dixon ended as champion. It was a difficult fight but Dixon never seemed to lose his grip once he took the championship lead for the entirety of the second half of the season. Along the way, Dixon moved his name up the record book in multiple categories and he continues to cement himself as one of the all-time greats in motorsports let alone IndyCar.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon added another three victories to his decorated IndyCar career and in doing so he has moved to third all-time with 44 victories behind only A.J. Foyt's 67 and Mario Andretti's 52. The first victory came at the first Belle Isle race. He ran on the back of Marco Andretti for the first stint and ran better in and out laps to get the lead. The first caution erased the challenge of Ryan Hunter-Reay, who was on a three-stop strategy, and Dixon had control from there on out.

The following week, Dixon ran strong at Texas and he was going all-out on a four-stop strategy while some tired to stretch it on three stops. Timely cautions killed any reason to conserve fuel and Dixon had put a fair amount of the field a lap down and had clean air to work with on the restart. He pulled away again while Alexander Rossi battled Simon Pagenaud and took the championship lead with this victory.

At Toronto, Dixon was running second and Josef Newgarden brushed the barrier on coming to a restart allowing Dixon through. From there, Dixon took another convincing victory and on that day it became clear Dixon was likely going to win the championship. He had a 62-point lead with five races to go and Toronto was a race where his four biggest championship challengers all had issues. Rossi got into Will Power. Hunter-Reay got into the barrier all on his own when he locked up the brakes in turn three. Power had a second accident. Newgarden brushed the barrier while leading. Every other driver showed their flaws and it was clear they were not going to have enough to defeat Dixon.

What subjectively was his best race?
Portland! It is the race where he finished fifth after coming out of a cloud of dust without any damaged and four wounded racecars, two to his left and two to his right. Dixon made mistakes during that race. The first lap accident wasn't one of them but even being at the wrong place at the wrong time didn't get him. Dixon had everything go against him in that race and he shot himself in the foot with a pit lane speeding penalty but timing was in his favor. A caution occurred after Dixon's pit stops and Alexander Rossi was caught out. Rossi shuffled to the back, Dixon slid up to the front and what was going to be a 72-points swing in the American's favor turned out to be a day where Dixon added some insurance heading into the finale. Portland was the day when it became clear the title was going to be Dixon's.

What objectively was his worst race?
His worst race was 12th at Iowa. It was his one bad day. He started sixth and fell back to 12th. His only other result outside the top ten was 11th at Long Beach, where he was in contention for a podium finish but a caution caught him out. He made it to pit road but not before the caution and he had to serve a penalty. Despite the set back, he fought back to finish 11th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
When you win a championship, is there really a worst race? Unlike every other driver that can look back at points lost over the course of a season, the champion didn't lose points. Dixon can look back and think he could have finished fourth at Portland but it would have been another three points to his championship total.

He could look back at Gateway and say he should have won that race after starting on pole position and leading 145 of 248 laps but finished third. It doesn't matter. Enough was done. You can always want more but Dixon did what Dixon does. He ended the season with six consecutive top five finishes and 12 top five finishes in the final 13 races. He did what was needed to get his fifth championship.

Scott Dixon's 2018 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (678 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 9
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 15
Laps Led: 357
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 8.0
Average Finish: 4.235

There were a lot of pluses and minuses for Ed Jones in 2018
Ed Jones
The sophomore season for Ed Jones saw him move from Dale Coyne Racing to Chip Ganassi Racing. Jones improved in the championship but the results were not good enough. His best days could not cover up his shortcomings and his tenure with the team lasted one season.

What objectively was his best race?
Jones had two podium finishes; both third place finishes at Long Beach and the second Belle Isle race. Long Beach was a race where he benefited from a caution that took him from the back half of the top ten to the podium but it was not a cakewalk. Zach Veach put up a challenge for third and Jones held on.

What subjectively was his best race?
The second Belle Isle race was the only race Jones started in the top ten and finished in the top ten and better yet, he started in the top five and finished in the top five. Jones started fourth and finished third and he held off Dixon for that final podium position.

What objectively was his worst race?
Because there are 33 cars at the Indianapolis it makes it more likely a driver's worst finish will occur in that race and sure enough, Jones' worst result was 31st in the Indianapolis 500 after an accident exiting turn two after 57 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Jones was going to finish on the podium at Phoenix but he had an accident and instead of finishing second, the marbles caught him out and ended what could have been a remarkable result in his second start with Chip Ganassi Racing. Instead, he pretty much ended his Ganassi career before it even got started. It didn't help that Jones was always the third choice for the team and when he could have won the team over and maybe saved any hope of a second season at Ganassi he only set the dominos in motion to justify his removal after 2018 and sure enough he is gone.

Ed Jones' 2018 Statistics
Championship Position: 13th (343 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 13.1875
Average Finish: 13.294

An Early Look Ahead
Ed Jones is out and Felix Rosenqvist is in and it is one of the most anticipated rookie of the year campaigns in IndyCar in recent memory. Though Rubens Barrichello was not classified as a rookie, I think this addition to the grid matches the level of interest when Barrichello came in but in two different respects.

With Barrichello, we wondered how the most experienced driver in Formula One history not only would do in IndyCar but how would he adapt to the differences and Barrichello seemed to fit right in. He didn't dominate but he had respectable results and he seemed to fit in. For Rosenqivst, he has been a highly touted prospect for over six years and he seems to fit the quintessential European driver that has the talent but not the budget to move up to Formula One and no Formula One snagged the kid while they could.

Rosenqvist beat many on the current Formula One grid whilst in Formula Three. In 2012, he beat teammate Pascal Wehrlein and Carlos Sainz, Jr. while finishing third in in the championship. The following year he topped Alex Lynn, Harry Tincknell and Jordan King and was vice-champion. He dropped to tenth in 2014 but was the 2015 European Formula Three champion ahead of Antonio Giovinazzi, Charles Leclerc, Lance Stroll and George Russell and all four of those drivers will be in Formula One next year.

The Swede has found success everywhere he has gone. After Formula Three, he won three Indy Lights races in ten starts. He was competitive in Formula E from the drop of the hat. He had three podium finishes in Super Formula and he finished on the podium last year in Super GT while scoring points in six of seven starts.

I am not worried about off the track for Rosenqvist. He ran Indy Lights, he understands the American scene a bit and after watching him in Indy Lights and Formula E he seems like a flexible guy and I don't think he will suffer a culture shock in the paddock. I look at Rosenqvist and after the season Robert Wickens had I think that is not an unrealistic bar for Rosenqvist. He has some experience when it comes to the tracks but plenty will be new to him and the car is different. He will not necessarily be Juan Pablo Montoya but I do not expect him to be lost every weekend. He is the early favorite for rookie of the year.

It would be easy to say Scott Dixon has nothing to work on because every year he seems to do the same old thing and at worst he finishes fourth in the championship. Dixon has pretty much had a championship-caliber every year since 2006 it is just some years another driver was slightly better. But this level of consistency has not been matched by anybody and that is how Dixon has won five championships.

Dixon has never gone more than five seasons without a championship. He won titles in 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018. We can pencil him in for another title by at least 2023 at this rate and it would not surprise anybody if he would three titles in the next five years.

Dixon finished the year with 678 of a possible 1,026 points, 66.0818% of the maximum and this is the third consecutive seasons the champion has scored over 60% of the maximum points total after four consecutive years scoring below 60%. This is the second-highest percentage of the maximum points Dixon has scored in his five championships. In 2008, he scored 646 of 901 points, 71.698%, the last time a champion has scored over 70% of the maximum points.

This was the second consecutive season the champion had nine podium finishes but Dixon's 13 top five finishes and 15 top ten finishes gave him in the highest percentage in each category since Dario Franchitti achieved both totals in 2011. Dixon had top five finishes in 76.47% of the races and top ten finishes in 88.235% of the races.

Where could Dixon improve? Qualifying? I guess he could have a Will Power-esque qualifying record but he has been pretty damn successful without qualifying on the front row in 14 races.

Dixon is going to be at the top of championship and I think Rosenqvist will be better than Jones. How much better? I think he will be in the top ten and we will see where he goes from there.