Friday, February 1, 2019

2019 Bathurst 12 Hour Preview

We have reached February and the month starts with another endurance race. After experiencing the twice-around-the-clock events from Dubai and Daytona it is time for a race of half the distance but on an iconic circuit. For the 18th time the Bathurst 12 Hour will be held and the Mount Panorama Circuit hosts the opening round of the Intercontinental GT Challenge season for the fourth consecutive year.

Eight manufactures have committed to this year's Intercontinental GT Challenge season. Audi is back and will try to maintain its unbeaten record in this series, as it is three-for-three in the manufactures' championship. Mercedes-AMG was vice-champion to Audi last year and returns as well as Porsche and Bentley. BMW, Nissan, Ferrari and Honda are new manufactures to this year's championship. Honda will be absent from the Bathurst 12 Hour because the NSX GT3 Evo kit is not eligible for this race.

This year's race has 41 entries with 28 in Class A, the leading GT3 class. Class B has three Porsche 911 GT3 Cup cars, Class C has six GT4 cars and Class I for invitational cars has four entries, including one that has Paul Tracy paired with two-time Bathurst 12 Hour winner and one-time Bathurst 1000 winner Paul Morris.

This preview looks at the 28 Class A entries, which will be fighting for the overall victory. Unfortunately, two Class A entries have been withdrawn after accidents and those are covered below as well.

#2 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Christopher Mies, Christopher Haase, Markus Winkelhock
Why this car could win: Mies has won this race twice before and he and Haase have experience driving together. All three of these drivers have won the biggest endurance races from around the world and Audi is coming off winning this race for the third time last year. Winkelhock won the 2017 Intercontinental GT Challenge Drivers' championship. This car was third in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There have been four different manufactures that have won this race in the last four years and the last manufacture to win in consecutive years was Audi in 2011 and 2012.

#3 Melbourne Performance Centre Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Pete Storey, Gordon Sheddon, Matthew Neal
Why this car could win: It can't because Storey had an accident during a practice session and the car will not be repaired in time. Sheddon and Neal are British Touring Car champions. Sheddon ran the World Touring Car Cup season last year.
Why this car would not have won: While Sheddon had one Bathurst start a few years ago, his two co-drivers were making their Bathurst debut. I don't think they would have been able to compete with some of these much more experienced entries.

#6 Melbourne Performance Centre Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Adrian Deitz, Julain Westwood, Cameron McConville, Tony D'Alberto
Why this car could win: McConville has six Bathurst 1000 podium finishes and he won a Bathurst 24 Hour before. D'Alberto also finished on the Bathurst 1000 podium a few years ago. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: McConville and D'Alberto cannot carry this car to victory.

#9 Audi Sport Team MPC Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Marc Cini, Lee Holdsworth, Dean Fiore
Why this car could win: All three have experience at Mount Panorama with Holdsworth having finished on the podium for the Bathurst 1000 before.
Why this car will not win: This is a good lineup but not a great lineup and Holdsworth and Fiore are coming off rough seasons in the Supercars Championship.

#11 Objective Racing McLaren 650S GT3
Drivers: Tony Walls, Warren Luff, Andrew Watson
Why this car could win: Walls and Luff have run together for many years and Luff has five Bathurst 1000 podium finishes in the last seven year including runner-up results the last two years. Watson has some Bathurst experience. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: Luff has yet to break through and get a race victory in the Bathurst 1000. A few years ago this team could get a victory but the competition has become really stiff.

#12 Competition Motorsports/McElrea Racing Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: David Calvert-Jones, Kévin Estre, Jaxon Evans
Why this car could win: Calvert-Jones has experience in this race and has had some good outings before. Estre is a top driver and has won plenty for Porsche. Evans is a young driver but he is coming off the Porsche Carrera Cup Australia title and he won a race at Bathurst last year. This car rounded out the top five in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: Surprisingly, Porsche has yet to win the Bathurst 12 Hour. Calvert-Jones has normally had four-drive lineups and I think that fourth driver would come in handy.

#18 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Alexandre Imperatori, Oliver Jarvis, Edoardo Liberati
Why this car could win: These three all ran the Dubai 24 Hour last month. All three of veterans of sports car racing and have run all around the globe. Nissan won this race four years ago. Jarvis is going to want to make up for the lost opportunity at the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Why this car will not win: Nissan's GT3 program hasn't been as strong on the international level since its won this race four years ago and won the Blancpain Endurance Series title that same year.

#19 Griffith Corp. Team Nineteen Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Mark Griffith, Yelmer Buurman, Christina Nielsen
Why this car could win: Buurman won the Dubai 24 Hour last month and Nielsen is a champion in IMSA's GTD class. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This lineup does not have experience with each other, Nielsen is making her Bathurst debut and the Mercedes-AMG pool is deep.

#22 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Kelvin van der Linde, Garth Tander, Frédéric Vervisch
Why this car could win: Van der Linde and Vervisch have plenty of experience with Audi's GT3 operation. Van der Linde is a race winner. Vervisch is still climbing the ladder. Add to the lineup a three-time Bathurst 1000 winner and Bathurst 24 Hour winner in Tander and this team will be competing for the top step of the podium. These three ran last year's race together.
Why this car will not win: This is a deep field. Van der Linde is in his third endurance race on a third different continent in five weeks. Tander is north of 40 and he is coming off the worst Supercars Championship finish of his career.

#27 HubAuto Corsa Ferrari 488 GT3
Drivers: Nick Foster, Tim Slade, Nick Percat
Why this car could win: Percat has a fondness for Bathurst having won on his Bathurst 1000 debut and he has since added another two podium finishes at the track. Slade has had respectable results in the Supercars the last few seasons and Foster has gotten out on the international stage and done pretty good. On top of that, Ferrari has done well in this event and this car was second fastest in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There are not many Ferraris in the field and Ferrari has not had much success in the IGTC.

#29 Trofeo Motorsport Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Jim Manolios, Benjamin Porter, Ivan Capelli, Dean Canto
Why this car could win: Canto and Capelli have been around the block a few times. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too amateur to win overall.

#34 Walkenhorst Motorsport BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Christian Matias Krognes, Nicky Catsburg, Mikkel Jensen
Why this car could win: Krognes won last year in the Spa 24 Hours with this team. Catsburg has been a regular in BMW program for a few years now and he has won in many different series. Jensen has been developing as a sports car driver in recent years.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too inexperience to win this race. All three are making their Bathurst debuts.

#35 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Katsumasa Chiyo, Matsuda Tsugio, Joshua Burdon
Why this car could win: Chiyo won this race in 2015 and Tsugio has been successful in Japan. Burdon is still getting accustomed to sports cars but has spent the last few years in LMP3.
Why this car will not win: Burdon is a weak link and Nissan might not be able to complete with Mercedes-AMG and Porsche.

#42 BMW Team Schnitzer BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Augusto Farfus, Chaz Mostert, Martin Tomczyk
Why this car could win: Mostert has won the Bathurst 1000 before. Farfus is coming off a big victory at the 24 Hours of Daytona. Before that Farfus has won in the DTM and has been stout in BMW's GT operation. Tomczyk was a DTM champion and he is learning in sports cars.
Why this car will not win: Farfus is coming over from Daytona and after such a high he might have a let down race and that would be understandable. Daytona was such an emotional experience; especially with the victory coming after the passing of long-time BMW Team Schnitzer team principal Charly Lamm. Add to that a transcontinental flight and everything is bound to catch up with you and slow you down. Add on top of all that, Tomczyk is a Bathurst rookie.

#51 Spirit of Race Ferrari 488 GT3
Drivers: Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy, Mathias Lauda
Why this car could win: They have won the FIA World Endurance Championship GTE-Am title. They have a lot of experience with one another and they just ran a Ferrari 488 GT3 at Daytona. These three ran this race last year.
Why this car will not win: This team will have a bit of jet lag. It is still an amateur lineup and is going up against not only professional lineups but Bathurst experienced drivers. Dalla Lana also had an accident in practice but the crew will attempt to repair the car.

#62 R-Motorsport Aston Martin Vantage GT3
Drivers: Jake Dennis, Matthieu Vaxivière, Marvin Kirchhöfer
Why this car could win: Dennis and Vaxiviére won last year in the Blancpain Endurance Series at Silverstone. All three drivers have moderately successful junior formula careers and are doing well in their transition to GT competition. Kirchhöfer did well last year in ADAC GT Masters with a third place championship finish. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: All three are new to Bathurst and Aston Martin has not regularly competed in this event.

#75 SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Kenny Habul, Dominick Baumann, Thomas Jäger
Why this car could win: Tristan Vautier was supposed to be in this car and is coming off winning the International GT Challenge title but Vautier has come down with the flue. Baumann will replace him and this will be his Bathurst 12 Hour debut. Habul won the Bronze Drivers' championship last year in IGTC. These two finished second last year and Jäger won this race back in 2013.
Why this car will not win: Habul and Vautier had Jamie Whincup and Raffaele Maricello last year and no offense to Baumann and Jäger but they aren't Jamie Whincup and Raffaele Maricello. This lineup experienced a late shake up. It will be an uphill fight.

#77 Mercedes-AMG Team Craft Bamboo Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Maro Engel, Luca Stolz, Gary Paffett
Why this car could win: Engel has experience at Mount Panorama and Stolz was in last year's race. Paffett is coming off a DTM title and he has been running in Formula E. This car was fourth quickest during Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: Paffett does not have much GT experience and no experience at Mount Panorama.

#98 Matt Stone Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Todd Hazelwood, Roger Lago, David Russell
Why this car could win: Lago and Russell have run together in the Austrian GT Championship. Hazelwood is coming off his first full season in Supercars. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This is a good lineup but there are many superior cars in this race.

#107 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Steven Kane, Jules Gounon, Jordan Pepper
Why this car could win: Gounon has won IGTC races before as he has won the Spa 24 Hours. These three got to run the back half of the Blancpain Endurance Series schedule last year together. Kane was on the overall podium in third in 2016 and 2017.
Why this car will not win: It has been a while since this car has won a race.

#108 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Andy Soucek, Maxime Soulet, Vincent Abril
Why this car could win: This trio has a lot of experience together and has won races in the Blancpain Endurance Series. Bentley has not won this race before but has come close.
Why this car will not win: Bentley's good races are too sporadic to think it could happen at this race.

#540 Black Swan Racing Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: Tim Pappas, Jeroen Bleekemolen, Marc Lieb
Why this car could win: It can't win because Pappas suffered a massive accident in practice and the team has withdrawn the car. It is a shame because this team finished third last year with Luca Stolz as a fourth driver in this car. Pappas and Bleekemolen both raced in the 24 Hours of Daytona last week.
Why this car would not have won: The car was written off in a practice accident but I would have said Lieb is in pseudo-retirement and it seems this is his only race of choice each year. I am not sure that is enough to keep a driver fresh.

#760 R-Motorsport Aston Martin Vantage GT3-R
Drivers: Florian Kamelger, Andreas Bänzleger, Peter Leemhuis, Mathew Perry
Why this car could win: It is on the grid and R-Motorsport has produced race winners before. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: Too many unknowns with this lineup.

#777 The Bend Motorsports Park Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Yasser Shahin, David Reynolds, Luke Youlden
Why this car could win: Reynolds and Youlden won the Bathurst 1000 in 2017. Reynolds won three races last year in Supercars including the final race of the season at Newcastle. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: When looking at other lineups, Shahin is one of the weaker third drivers.

#88 888 Mercedes-AMG Team Vodafone Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Craig Lowndes, Jamie Whincup, Shane van Gisbergen
Why this car could win: Between the three drivers they have 11 Bathurst 1000 victories, 11 Supercars championship and four Bathurst 12 Hour victories with each driver having won this race before.
Why this car will not win: Because it is too good to be true and the dream team is not always victorious. Also, this team made contact with the #51 Ferrari in that practice accident and while the team had minimal damage in comparison it is a minor setback.

#911 EBM Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: Romain Dumas, Sven Müller, Mathieu Jaminet
Why this car could win: This lineup could win in any series in the world. Dumas has won in everything everywhere he has been. Müller and Jaminet are both hungry drivers and getting Porsche its first win in the Bathurst 12 Hour would boost their careers.
Why this car will not win: A few teams are stronger and this team is beat by a Bathurst-experience group.

#912 EBM Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: Dirk Werner, Dennis Olsen, Matt Campbell
Why this car could win: Another strong lineup from Porsche and Campbell is a past Porsche Carrera Cup Australia champion and he is had a really strong year in the FIA WEC. Olsen is the defending Porsche Supercup champion.
Why this car will not win: Its sister car is stronger. I think either Porsche could win this race.

#999 Mercedes-AMG Team MANN FILTER GruppeM Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Maximilian Buhk, Raffaele Marciello, Maximilian Götz
Why this car could win: All three drivers have won championships. Buhk has won titles in the Blancpain GT Series as has Marciello. Götz won an ADAC GT Masters title. Maricello did well last year in the IGTC and won at Suzuka. This car was quickest in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There are many good teams in this field. This field has at least eight cars that would not surprise me if they won this race.

The Bathurst 12 Hour will begin at 1:45 p.m. ET on Saturday February 2nd with the race continuing to 1:45 a.m. ET on Sunday February 3rd.