103rd Indianapolis 500 Qualifying Preview

Four practice days are behind us and ahead of us are a six-hour and 50-minute qualifying session to determine the Fast Nine, tenth through 30th and the six drivers that will be battling for the final row of the 103rd Indianapolis 500 grid on Saturday with the starting grid being finalized on Sunday afternoon.

Through four practice days, four different drivers topped each day but only two different drivers topped the no tow reports with an unlikely name having the fastest no tow lap on three of the four days.

This preview will look at the 36 drivers slated to qualify over these two days and breakdown those fighting for the Fast Nine, those who could be in bumping trouble, those who are going to be happy where they are at and those who haven't been in either conversation when it comes to the Fast Nine or Last Row Shootout.

Who is in Play For the Fast Nine?
All three Ed Carpenter Racing entries.  All three have been fast this week and the leader has been Ed Jones. Jones was fastest on the no tow report on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday and he was fastest overall Thursday. Jones was sixth fastest Friday. He was third on the no tow and ninth on Wednesday and he was tenth when practice opened.

Ed Carpenter opened the week third overall, fell to tenth on Wednesday, dropped to 13th but was eighth in the no tow report on Thursday and he was ninth overall on Friday and second on the no tow report. Spencer Pigot was a spot behind Jones on Tuesday but was third on Wednesday, eighth on Thursday and fourth on Friday. The one concern for Pigot is his no tow results are iffy. He was second on the no tow report on Thursday but 30th on Wednesday and 36th on Friday. It should be noted how the no tow report is an imperfect yardstick and it could come down to Pigot not getting in a lap with enough open track to register on the no tow report and the laps he did register as no tow laps were slower laps. I think Pigot will be fine and push for the Fast Nine.

All four Penske entries. This isn't a surprise. The week started with Will Power, Simon Pagenaud and Hélio Castroneves taking three of the top four. Josef Newgarden jumped from 17th on Tuesday to the top spot on Wednesday. Penske closed out practice Friday with Power fourth on the no tow report, Pagenaud fifth and Newgarden in ninth. All three of those drivers were in the top ten of the no tow report on Thursday. Castroneves has not been as high up the no tow report with the Brazilian being 31st, 29th and 14th the last three days.

As for Honda entries, the Honda that has been regularly at the top is Takuma Sato. He opened the week in 14th and 17th but closed the week in second and third and seventh on the no tow report Thursday. The problem is that Thursday was his only day in the top ten of the no tow report.

Marco Andretti closed out practice second fastest overall at 230.851 MPH and he was seventh on the no tow report Friday. Andretti opened the week in ninth but dropped in the overall results the next two days. He did not post a no tow lap on Wednesday but he was sixth on Thursday. Alexander Rossi topped the no tow report on Wednesday despite being 34th overall. He was eighth overall on Tuesday and 11th overall on Friday but he was 11th on the no tow report on Thursday and third on Friday.

Colton Herta was eighth and ninth on the no tow report on Wednesday and Friday and he was fifth overall on Tuesday and Thursday. Graham Rahal jumped up to sixth on the no tow report on Friday but he was not in the top ten in either the overall practice results or no tow reports all week.

I am not sure Sébastien Bourdais can make the Fast Nine but it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. I could be an uphill climb but, with that said, Bourdais has been sixth, sixth, four and 15th. His no tow report results do not point to a driver that will be in the Fast Nine after he was 19th, 32nd and 12th the last three days.

Tony Kanaan was second in the no tow report from Wednesday but he has not been in the top ten overall or no tow reports all week.

Scott Dixon was second overall on Wednesday and ninth on the no tow report that day but the only other day he was in the top ten was Thursday when he was ninth and he only got up to eighth on the no tow report on Friday.

Who Are Biting Their Finger Nails?
Kyle Kaiser.

Everything was looking good for Kaiser and Juncos Racing. From the start of the week the team was putting up competitive times both overall and on the no tow report, constantly ending up in the middle of the field, which is exactly where a team that lost its two biggest sponsors on the eve of practice beginning and then Indianapolis reminded us it is a cruel mistress and Kaiser spun in the middle of turn three on his first hot lap of Friday practice.

Juncos Racing has a backup car and it has got it put together for qualifying but the primary car was tuned in. Kaiser was set to make this race, not necessarily compete for the top nine but all Kaiser has to do it put the car solidly in 19th and it is mission accomplished for the team.

If this were a Hollywood script, Kaiser and the crew would work all night, get the backup car built, sprint down the pit lane moments before his spot in the qualifying, they would make it in time and Kaiser would got out and qualify but we have also seen the team scrabble to make it back and be a mile and a half off what it is take and continue to push the envelope in desperation of making the race only a little over 24 hours after it pushed it too far.

Three of the four Carlin related entries and those entries are specifically Max Chilton, Patricio O'Ward and McLaren's Fernando Alonso.

I guess we will start with the biggest name and Alonso has been good but closer to the bubble than the 2017 Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year probably expected to be. His practice results over the four days were 31st, 29th after an accident early Wednesday, a day with no laps turned on Thursday and 24th on Friday. He was 17th on the no tow report on Wednesday but 31st on Friday.

This is the hairiest situation in Alonso's career. That seems like hyperbole but I am not sure he has ever faced getting egg on his face like this. He has gone into grand prix with a world championship on the line and come out with nothing. He has survived two unceremonious exits from Formula One teams. He was a public benefactor to team orders when team orders were banned from Formula One and he was an afterthought, a charcuterie in his final seasons with a woeful McLaren but not making the Indianapolis 500, not being faster than three people, three people who likely were never in the same solar system as a Formula One seat with HRT, that will haunt him. That is part of what makes Indianapolis great but this is case where Alonso just has to live up to some of the results on paper.

Moving on to the full-time drivers, Patricio O'Ward had an accident on Thursday and it was already  a trying week for him before that accident. O'Ward had electrical issue keep him from completing Rookie Orientation on Tuesday and was 34th overall. He was 22nd on Wednesday and 13th on the no tow report and he was 23rd overall before his accident on Thursday but his no tow time was 33rd. On Friday, O'Ward was 34th overall and 35th on the no tow report.

This week has not been a terrible week for Max Chilton but for the last year and a half we have seen Chilton start a race weekend and look promising and have it all go to hell in a blink of an eye. He was 27th, 30th, 15th and 33rd in the overall results. His no tow times looked good with Chilton 22nd on both Wednesday and Thursday but he dropped to 32nd on Friday. This all is point to at least two Carlin cars being in the bottom six at the end of Saturday.

Ben Hanley has been 36th, 36th, 33rd and 35th over the four days of practice. His last three no tow results were 32nd, 17th and 34th. It is going to be tough for Hanley and DragonSpeed to make the race. It is going to be tough to watch because DragonSpeed is a suitable operation and it is trying to make its way into IndyCar. It has two other races scheduled this season, all on road courses. Those will help the team as it looks to increase its IndyCar participation but making the Indianapolis 500 would certainly help this team out.

Jordan King is making his first attempt at an IndyCar oval race and while his teammate's Sato and Rahal are fighting for one of the top nine spots, King is in position to be one of the bottom six after Saturday. He opened in 32nd, move up to 31st, moved up again to 29th but dropped to 32nd on Friday. The no tow speeds are encouraging with King going 24th, 19th and 27th over the last three days but if King gets a curveball on Saturday and finds himself needing to find speed it could catch King out like many first time runners before him.

Pippa Mann was 33rd, 35th, 27th and 31st on the four practice days. The one bright spot may be she was 12th, 25th and 21st on the no tow reports the last three days. This could be a case of a team focusing everything on putting together one solid qualifying attempt but being outside the top thirty on three of the four days is not an encouraging sign.

Oriol Servià was the last entrant announced and he has been in the bottom third all week. Servià was 27th, 19th, 28th and 28th over the four days. His no tow speeds the last three days were 26th, 30th and 29th. Last year, Servià was fighting to get in late and he did. He might be in the same situation again this year.

After last year, James Hinchcliffe has to be in this discussion; especially after his practice results were 25th, 32nd, 35th and 29th. These results are similar to last year. A lot of things went against Hinchcliffe last year and if the rain delays do not happen and if he doesn't have a loose tire sensors he probably makes the race but he put himself in the position to get bumped and he was bumped. It could happen again this year. His no tow speeds are calming at 27th, 13th and 19th but fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Felix Rosenqvist had an accident late on Wednesday and Rosenqvist has been fighting from behind ever since. The week started well with the Swede in 18th and he was 16th before his accident on Wednesday. He returned on Thursday but he was 34th and he was 30th on Friday. The bad news is Rosenqvist's no tow speeds are not much cover for shaky overall results. He was 35th on Wednesday before the accident. He ended the week in 34th and 26th on the no tow report. The results were trending in the right way but I do not think Ganassi is out of the clear heading into Saturday.

Who Should be Happy With Where They Are At?
Conor Daly went to the top late in Friday practice and he closed out practice week in the number one spot at 231.704 MPH. While Daly topped Friday, he was 22nd on the no tow report and his best no tow report result was tenth. He could make the Fast Nine but I think Daly just needs an entry where he can qualify a car and know he will be in the field and have a decent car for 500 miles.

Ryan Hunter-Reay seemed lost all week and none of his no tow report speeds were all that impressive with him going 14th on Wednesday and Thursday and 24th on Friday but after his left rear suspension broke while on a qualifying simulation during Fast Friday, he came back and jumped to fifth late in the session, his first serious showing of speed. The Fast Nine might be out of reach but after his history with bumping in the past I think he will be glad to just put himself in a spot where he will not have to sweat it out all day.

Zach Veach was seventh, seventh, third and 17th on the first four practice days but he didn't break the top ten on the no tow report on any of the days. Veach might find himself on row four or five but I think the top nine is just out of his reach.

Charlie Kimball should be happy because he has solidly been in the middle while his Carlin teammates are gasping for air at the bottom. Kimball was 22nd, eighth, 16th and eighth overall on the four days and his last three no tow speeds had him fourth, fifth and 25th. I know he was in the top five twice on the no tow report but I think it is a stretch for him to make the Fast Nine and if he is 14th after everyone's first qualifying attempt I think Carlin will call it a day because it cannot afford to risk losing its best horse in the stable.

The other Dale Coyne Racing entries have looked good. Santino Ferrucci was 19th on day one, fourth on day two, 35th out of 35 cars on day three but he moved back up to 19th on Friday. Ferrucci's no tow speeds are concerning. He was fourth on Wednesday but 33rd when it came to the no tow results. His best no tow time on Wednesday had him in 31st but he bounced back to 18th on the no tow chart on Friday.

James Davison started out the week in 35th but climbed the chart to 25th on Wednesday, 12th on Thursday and closed the week in 23rd. Similar to Ferrucci, Davison's no tow speeds are a head-scratcher. He was 34th and 35th on the no tow report on Wednesday and Thursday but he got up to 20th on Friday. There is some reason to worry about the other two Coyne entries but I think the team will have these two somewhere in the middle of the field, not in the conversation for the Fast Nine but not in the conversation for bumping either.

Who Has Not Yet Been Mentioned?
Sage Karam, J.R. Hildebrand, Matheus Leist, Marcus Ericsson and Jack Harvey.

Hildebrand has solidly been in the middle of the field all week during practice and Karam has had some promising practice results but neither driver has been putting up impressive no tow speeds. I think each should be somewhere between row five and row eight.

Leist hasn't been bad this week. He hasn't been great. His practice results have been 30th, 12th, 31st and 27th with no tow speeds putting him 11th, 24th and 28th the final three days. I don't get a sense where Leist will be. He could be in the bumping discussion but he has at least been out of the cellar this week while there are three or four entries that have yet to see sunlight.

Ericsson and Harvey have not put a wheel wrong this week. Ericsson has been quicker than Hinchcliffe on all four practice days and Harvey was quicker than Hinchcliffe on two of the four days but the two days Harvey was not quicker he was one spot directly behind Hinchcliffe. Ericsson was seventh, 10th and 13th on the no tow report the last three days while Harvey was sixth, 18th and 23rd in terms of no tow.

All signs point to Ericsson potentially being a Fast Nine surprise. I think that is a stretch but I am not going to rule it out. Harvey may end up 20th and that should be fine for him and Meyer Shank Racing.

What is the Qualifying Order?
Conor Daly will be the first primary car to take the race track with Spencer Pigot being the second primary car in the qualifying order and Alexander Rossi in the third spot. Ed Carpenter will be the fourth qualifier ahead of Sébastien Bourdais, Tony Kanaan, Marco Andretti, Charlie Kimball, Will Power, Ben Hanley, Max Chilton and Jack Harvey will round out the first third of qualifiers.

Santino Ferrucci will be the 13th qualifier with fellow rookie Marcus Ericsson following the American. James Davison is scheduled to drive 15th ahead of Ed Jones, Takuma Sato and Simon Pagenaud will end the first half of the qualifying order.

Pippa Mann is 19th in the qualifying line ahead of Fernando Alonso, Sage Karam, Jordan King, Hélio Castroneves and Josef Newgarden will be the 24th qualifier.

Oriol Servià starts off the final third of qualifiers ahead of Scott Dixon, James Hinchcliffe, Patricio O'Ward, Graham Rahal and Matheus Leist will be the 30th qualifier.

J.R. Hildebrand will follow Leist with Ryan Hunter-Reay scheduled to be the 32nd qualifier. Kyle Kaiser is slated to be the 33rd qualifier amongst the primary cars. Felix Rosenqvist, Colton Herta and Zach Veach round out the qualifying order.

What is the Weather Forecast?
For Saturday, mostly sunny skies are in the forecast with a high of 86º F.

When qualifying starts at 11:00 a.m. ET, the temperature will be around 76º F with winds at 10 MPH from the Southwest. Winds should continue from the Southwest and pick up to as high as 16 MPH with temperatures rising but cloud cover increasing over the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 10%.

There is an 80% chance of precipitation forecasted for Sunday with thunderstorms starting at 7:00 a.m. ET with the chance of precipitation jumping to 60% at 9:00 a.m. ET and 70% at 10:00 a.m. ET. It remains at 70% until noon when it increases to 75% before dropping to 50% at 1:00 p.m. ET but chances of precipitation remaining likely throughout the afternoon into Sunday evening. Winds are projected to come from the South and Southwest and be about 20 MPH.

What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
There will be three practice sessions on Saturday morning; each will be a half-hour in length. The first session will begin at 8:00 a.m. ET for half the field with the other half of the entries practicing at 8:30 a.m. ET and both halves of the grid will be allowed to practice together at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Qualifying will begin on Saturday at 11:00 a.m. ET and go until 5:50 p.m. ET. The top nine drivers at the end of Saturday's session will take part in the Fast Nine session on Sunday. Positions 10-30 after Saturday's session will be locked into the race. The 31st-36th qualifiers will compete in the Last Row Shootout on Sunday.

The Last Row Shootout will take place at 12:15 p.m. ET on Sunday. Each of the six qualifiers will get one qualifying attempt. The fastest three cars will fill the 11th row of the Indianapolis 500 starting grid. The three slowest cars will not race in the Indianapolis 500.

The Fast Nine session will take place at 1:15 p.m. ET with each entry getting one qualifying attempt for pole position.

After the Fast Nine session, there will be a practice session scheduled for 3:15 p.m. ET and that session will run until 6:00 p.m. ET.

If rain washes out qualifying on Sunday, the Fast Nine session will not take place and the first ten rows will be set for the 103rd Indianapolis 500. The Last Row Shootout could be pushed to Monday and potentially as late as Tuesday if needed to determine the final three starting positions for the Indianapolis 500.

Saturday qualifying will be shown on NBC Sports Gold from 11:00 a.m. ET to 5:00 p.m. ET with NBCSN showing the final hour of Saturday qualifying. NBC's coverage of Sunday qualifying begins at noon ET with NBCSN showing the Sunday practice at 3:00 p.m. ET.