Back in January, we looked over the top riders and previewed how things stacked up heading into the season. Now it is time to look back and see where we were right and wrong in the frigid conditions of January.
1. Cooper Webb - #2 Red Bull KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
Victories: 7 (Anaheim 2, Oakland, Minneapolis, Arlington, Atlanta, Houston, East Rutherford)
Podium Finishes: 12
What did I write: "Webb falls a lot. He won two 250 West titles but he has yet to string together consistent results. He is making a big move to KTM. It could elevate his career if he stays up right."
How wrong was it: It did elevate his career because he did stay up right and it earned him a championship. Nobody saw this coming. How disconnected was everyone? Jeff Gluck tweeted that at the start of the season there was a press conference with the top 11 riders and Webb was not one of them.
It was an odd Supercross season and one of the reasons is Webb didn't make a mistake. He didn't go down when running third. He didn't have a bad race. He kept reeling off victories while others had bad days around him and this was a championship you would not have expected going Webb's way. If you had said the champion would have seven victories, 12 podium finishes, not fall and not put a wheel wrong, there are probably eight riders I would have selected before Webb but all credit to him. He was a rider that was prone for mistakes and in 2019 he made up for missed opportunities with a stunning championship.
2. Eli Tomac - #3 Monster Energy Kawasaki KX 450F
Victories: 6 (San Diego, Detroit, Daytona, Nashville, Denver, Las Vegas)
Podium Finishes: 10
What did I write: "This has to be Tomac's year to win the Supercross championship. He has won everything else and if he can avoid the two or three poor races that have derailed his title hopes in previous seasons the title will unquestionably be his."
How wrong was it: It wasn't Tomac's year and he didn't avoid those two or three poor races but unlike previous seasons where those two or three bad results were falls from the lead and finishes in the final three spots, this year had rides that were uncharacteristic for Tomac, races where he was fifth and that was the best he could do.
He still had his errors and it cost him at East Rutherford but never did it seem momentum was going in his direction and he was going to be able to chase down Webb. It took five races for him to get his first victory and while he would win three of the six races from San Diego to Daytona, Webb finished second in two of Tomac's three victories and in the three races Tomac didn't win, Webb took the top step of the podium.
3. Marvin Musquin - #25 Red Bull KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
Victories: 2 (Indianapolis, Seattle)
Podium Finishes: 12
What did I write: "The Frenchman will win a few races and he has the ability to compete for the title. He still needs to find that final gear to compete with the likes of Eli Tomac and he needs to be a bit more consistent to match Anderson. He isn't far off those two in those respective categories but that is right now what is separating him a championship."
How wrong was it: Musquin won twice but that wasn't going to be good enough and his second victory was the most controversial. He didn't roll through a section when the medical flag was out and for 75% of the Seattle main event we watched a man destined for a reprimand carry on and win a race knowing the result would be influx.
Musquin kept the victory but was docked seven points. Instead of clawing points out of his teammate's lead, Musquin and Webb both left Seattle with 19 points to their names respectively. The Frenchman won but left with a net-zero difference from prior to the start of the race. He did not finish ahead of Webb in the final five races.
It seemed like a man shattered because of his own mistake and in the next round, the final Triple Crown event at Houston, he knew he had to do double the work. He found himself playing chicken with his teammate and not only could not get Webb to blink but was pushed around by the man he was chasing. The title race ended that night. Webb was spotless, Tomac was erratic and Musquin had been played like a fiddle. If Webb had not broken in Houston he wasn't going to break over the final month of the season.
4. Ken Roczen - #94 Team Honda HRC Honda CRF 450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 6
What did I write: "Everything hangs on whether Roczen can stay healthy. He can push Tomac for the title but Roczen has not been the same since his injury in 2017 and it could be a case where Roczen does not have that last bit of aggression to take a title from Tomac, Musquin and Anderson."
How wrong was it: Roczen stayed healthy and he finished fourth in the championship but he is still rebuilding. We saw moments from Roczen but not an entire race. He came close a few times and he was leading the championship after the first six races but we had not seen the killer instinct to close out a race and either hold onto a victory or take one away from a rival.
The most painful thing for Roczen is he may have been 0.028 seconds away from that breakthrough. That was the margin he finished second to Webb by at Arlington, a race he had led 21 of 25 laps. Webb took the championship lead by two points and never looked back. It is hard to say this one result swung the championship and if he had won at Arlington it would somehow have changed the results of the final ten races of the season, none of which where Roczen finished on the podium but it was on a plate from Roczen, he missed it by an eye lash and he never got another sniff at the top step after that.
5. Blake Baggett - #4 Rocky Mountain ATV/MC – KTM – WPS KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
Victories: 1 (Glendale)
Podium Finishes: 5
What did I write: "Baggett improved last season but he is still on KTM's second team and, if everyone else stays healthy, Baggett may lose a few places in the championship but still put up a respectable showing."
6. Dean Wilson - #15 DW/Rockstar Engery Husqvarna Factory Team Husqvarna FC450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "Wilson kind of takes over the vacancy Chad Reed left as a privateer Husqvarna rider. Wilson is a bit younger but I can't see him finishing in the top ten of the championship."
How wrong was it: What we didn't see coming was Jason Anderson getting hurt after three races, Zach Osborne continuing to recover from a preseason injury and Husqvarna bringing Wilson in. In his substitute role, he was sufficient and had a third place finish at Houston. Unfortunately for Wilson, he got hurt at Denver and missed the final two rounds but sixth was likely the best he was going to do.
7. Cole Seely - #14 Team Honda HRC Honda CRF 450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 5th
What did I write: "Seely won in his rookie year at Houston in 2015 and he finished third in the championship. However, his championship finish has dropped ever since. He is a top ten rider but I don't think he can compete with the top four this season. He needs to reverse his championship slide and it will be tough to do with the depth of this grid."
How wrong was it: It is hard to say Seely stopped the bleeding when he finished seventh in the championship, never stood on the podium and after eight rounds, he was 11th in the championship and three riders ahead of him in championship would all go on to get injured and miss races and reigning champion Jason Anderson had already been sidelined for a month.
8. Joey Savatgy - #17 Monster Energy Kawasaki KX 450F
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 4th
What did I write: "Savatgy had respectable results in the 250 division with five victories and 19 podium finishes over five seasons. I don't think Tomac will have much to worry about and I think Savatgy will be in the back half of the top ten."
How wrong was it: And Savatgy was in the back half of the top ten with an eighth place championship finish.
9. Justin Bogle - #19 Rocky Mountain ATV/MC – KTM – WPS KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 4th
What did I write: "I am not sure. None of his results have been that great in his Supercross career and he has missed his fair share of races. I am not sure he finishes in the top ten even if he starts every race."
How wrong was it: Bogle benefitted from all the injuries and he did start every main event. He likely would not have finished ninth in the championship if everyone remained healthy but he did have a few respectable showings at San Diego, Denver and Houston.
10. Justin Brayton - #10 Bullfrod Spas/Smartop/Motoconcepts/Honda Honda CRF 450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 5th
What did I write: "He led the Honda contingent last year when the manufacture needed it most. I think he will be in the top ten of the championship but not be the top Honda rider."
How wrong was it: He did finish 10th in the championship and he was not one of Honda's top two finishers let alone top Honda rider. He did miss three races due to injury.
Other Riders
Justin Barcia - #51 Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing Yamaha YZ450F
Victories: 1 (Anaheim 1)
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "Barcia got a big opportunity last year filling in for the injured Davi Millsaps and now he has a full-time ride with factory Yamaha. He had a great start until his injury. It will be a tough battle between he and Plessinger to see who is top Yamaha rider."
How wrong was it: Barcia got Yamaha a surprise victory in the season opener, ending the manufacture's losing streak that stretch back almost seven years. He was sixth in the championship after Detroit and then missed the next two races at Atlanta and Daytona. He came back only to not finish better than 17th in the next three races and he elected to sit out the remainder of the season. I think Yamaha made a big leap forward this season only the results will not show it.
Zach Osborne - #16 Rockstar Engery Husqvarna Factory Team Husqvarna FC450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "Unfortunately, Osborne injured his collarbone during a practice day and he will need surgery. He has not been ruled out for making a debut midseason. Osborne had won three consecutive championships before his 250 Motocross season ended prematurely in 2018. He kind of pairs well with Anderson. Osborne was consistent in 250s. Since he switched to Husqvarna in 2015, Osborne has won seven races, had 18 podium finishes, 24 top five finishes and 33 top ten finishes in 36 races. If he was healthy and running every race, I think Osborne would be in the top ten of the championship."
How wrong was it: Osborne missed the first six races of the season and finished dead last in his first main event of the season at Arlington. However, he ended the season strong and the highlight was in New Jersey, where he led late and it appeared for a moment he was on his way to his first main event victory only to blow a corner and let Webb through but Osborne did finish second.
He scored 154 points from 11 starts, equal to Justin Barcia for 13th in the championship with tiebreaker to Barcia. He averaged 14 points per start that is more than fellow rookies Savatgy, who averaged 12.235 points, Justin Hill, who finished 11th with 162 points from 15 starts, good enough for 10.8 per start and Aaron Plessinger, who averaged 12.3 points from ten starts. Osborne came on strong and it would have been interesting to see how he would have done if he was healthy from the start and had a healthy Jason Anderson alongside him.
Chad Reed - #22 JGRMX/Yoshimura/Suzuki Factory Racing Suzuka RM-Z450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "After toughing out a year running his own bike, the injury to Weston Peick has landed Reed back at the factory Suzuki effort. It has been nearly four years since his last victory and Suzuki has not won since 2016. Reed should improve from his championship position last season but I don't think he will be pushing for the top five in the championship."
How wrong was it: Reed suffered season-ending injuries at Seattle and he finished 15th in the championship with 151 points but he was seventh in the championship at the time of his injury, he had finished third at Detroit and he had seven top ten finishes, nearly double the number he had in 2018. This was a nice year for Reed and it was terrible that it was cut short.
Aaron Plessinger - #7 Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing Yamaha YZ450F
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 5th
What did I write: "It is going to be a tough fight for rookie of the year this season between Plessinger, Savatgy and Hill and it would have been better is Osborne was healthy. I think every race could have a great battle between these three somewhere between fifth and tenth. The one thing against Plessinger is Yamaha has not won a 450 Supercross race since James Stewart at Daytona in 2012."
How wrong was it: While Barcia won a race, Plessinger was eighth in the championship at the time he broke his heel at Daytona, ending his season and he had just picked up his best result of the season with his fifth place finish in Atlanta. He was only two points behind Reed after the race in the Peach State. On average points per start, he was second to Osborne. It was a promising year for Yamaha and hopefully we get to see Plessinger, Osborne and Savatgy all get to race against each other and more than four occasions.
Jason Anderson - #1 Rockstar Engery Husqvarna Factory Team Husqvarna FC450
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "Anderson won a title with his consistency last year and there is no reason not to think Anderson will keep up his track record. Will it be enough to win a title for a second consecutive year? He will be up there but if Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen and Marvin Musquin all remain on the bike and do not allow Anderson to make up points in bunches Anderson may find himself dropping a few positions down the championship standings."
How wrong was it: Anderson got hurt in a training accident between the second Anaheim race and Oakland. His title defense was over before it got interesting. He had a rough opening race at Anaheim but rebounded to finish second to Baggett in the second race. The second Anaheim race, a Triple Crown round, was another rough one for Anderson and I think a second consecutive title was not going to be in the cards.
The only saving grace for Anderson is he probably would not have been like Tomac and Musquin and made mistakes and if anything his consistency would have at least kept him close to Webb. I think Webb would have had more out right pace than Anderson but I think a few races would have gone Anderson's way and instead of having seven victories, Webb would have had four or five. That significantly changes the championship but I think Webb would have won over Anderson had it come down to a head-to-head battle in final few rounds. Of course, this is entirely hypothetical and we will never know what the 2019 season would have looked like had Anderson been healthy.
Conclusion
This was an odd Supercross season. Nobody thought Webb was going to win it. Nobody though Tomac would look pedestrian in a handful of races. Nobody thought Musquin would lose the role of number one KTM rider. Nobody thought Anderson would get injured.
With that said, the first half of the season was full of thrilling races. We had a photo finish, a legitimate photo finish was no daylight between Webb and Roczen at Arlington. The first seven races were phenomenal and it fell off a bit in the second half. It was a mixture of us getting spoiled in the first half but also the championship falling into Webb's lap. He led from Arlington onward and was never really challenged.
There was not a point where it seemed like another rider was in better form than Webb. Musquin won consecutive races at Indianapolis and Seattle but as stated before the penalty for not rolling through the medical flag section cancelled out any gain Musquin would have made. In what should have been a case of Musquin breaking serve, ended up being a hold for Webb and that second wind carried him to another victory at Houston, all but sealing the title for him.
Now we head to the outdoor season. The last rider to win the Supercross and Motocross titles in the same season was Ryan Villopoto in 2013. Tomac has won the Motocross championship the last two seasons. Roczen is a two-time champion and won twice last year. Webb has not won a 450cc Motocross event but he was the 2016 250cc champion. On top of all that, hopefully some top riders will return from injuries and only add to the intrigue this summer.
