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| Another IndyCar season concludes running through the corkscrew at Laguna Seca |
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday September 22nd with green flag scheduled for 3:15 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Jon Beekhuis, Marty Snider and Robin Miller will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Thursday:
Open Test: 12:15 p.m. ET (2 Hours)
Open Test: 4:30 p.m. ET (4 Hours)
Friday:
First Practice: 1:30 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Second Practice: 5:10 p.m. ET (90 minutes)*
Saturday:
Third Practice: 1:00 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 4:30 p.m. ET (Live coverage on NBCSN)
Sunday:
Race: 3:15 p.m. ET (90 laps)
* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.
Championship Picture
Josef Newgarden, Alexander Rossi, Simon Pagenaud and Scott Dixon head to Laguna Seca alive for the Astor Cup. Pagenaud, Newgarden and Dixon are responsible for the last three championships while Rossi is attempting to win his first IndyCar title.
Newgarden enters holding serve with a 41-point lead over Rossi, a 42-point lead over Pagenaud and 85 points over Dixon.
All Newgarden has to do to clinch the championship is finish in the top four regardless of where any of the other three championship contenders finish. In 2019, Newgarden has finished in the top four on ten occasions, however he had not finished in the top four in the last four races.
Rossi's best chance at the championship will be a race victory. However, a race victory is not even the simplest route to the title. If Rossi wins and only scores one bonus point for leading a lap, all Newgarden has to do is finish fifth to clinch the championship should Newgarden not score any bonus points. If Rossi finishes second with no bonus points, all Newgarden would have to do is finish tenth or better to clinch the title. A third place result for Rossi means Newgarden can win the title with a 20th place finish. The worst result Rossi can score and win the championship is seventh but he will need to score at least two bonus points in that case.
With only a point separating Rossi and Pagenaud, Pagenaud's championship aspirations follow a similar path. A 101-point victory for Pagenaud means Newgarden just has to finish fifth. If Pagenaud is second, Newgarden clinches the title with an 11th-place finish. A third place result for Pagenaud allows Newgarden to take the title with at least a 21st-place finish. The worst result Pagenaud can score and win the championship is seventh with at least two bonus, the same as Rossi.
If Newgarden starts the race, Dixon can only with the title with a race victory. A 101-point victory for Dixon means Newgarden can win the title with a 22nd-place finish. If Dixon scores 104 points in a maximum points victory, he forces Newgarden to at least finish 20th. Even if Dixon gets the result he wants for Newgarden, he will need Rossi's day and Pagenaud's day to go a certain way.
A 104-point victory for Dixon means Newgarden will have to finish 21st or worse, Rossi would have to finish fifth or worse with no bonus points and Pagenaud would have to finish fifth or worse with no more than one bonus point.
The bad news for Dixon is Newgarden's worst finish this season was 19th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he has never finished outside the top twenty since joining Team Penske. His last finish outside the top twenty was at Texas in 2016, the race where he broke his clavicle and wrist. In his IndyCar career, Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty on 19 occasions in 133 starts. Only five of those 19 results occurred on natural-terrain road courses, including three times at Sonoma in 2012 (23rd), 2013 (24th) and 2015 (21st). The other two were at Mid-Ohio in 2013 (23rd) and the 2016 Grand Prix of Indianapolis (21st).
Entering this race, the tiebreaker is advantage Newgarden as he wins all tiebreaker because he is guaranteed to have more victories than Rossi and Dixon and he is guaranteed to have more runner-up finishes than Pagenaud. Newgarden had four victories while Pagenaud has three victories and Rossi and Dixon have each won twice. Newgarden has two runner-up finishes while Rossi has three, Dixon has six and Pagenaud has zero.
There is no possible way there could be a four-way tie but there are eight possible outcomes that lead to a three-way tie:
Outcome #1:
Dixon wins the race but only scores 101 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with no bonus points AND Rossi finishes sixth and scores one bonus point. In this case, Newgarden would be champion, Dixon would be second and Rossi would be third.
Outcome #2:
Dixon wins the race but only scores 101 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with no bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes sixth with two bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be champion, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #3:
Dixon wins the race but only scores 101 points AND Newgarden finishes 23rd with two bonus points AND Rossi finishes sixth with one bonus point. In that case, Newgarden would be champion, Dixon would be second and Rossi would be third.
Outcome #4:
Dixon wins the race and scores 102 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with one bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes sixth with three bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #5:
Dixon wins the race and scores 103 points AND Newgarden finishes 21st with no bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes fifth with no bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #6:
Dixon wins the race and scores 103 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with two bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes fifth with no bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #7:
Dixon wins the race and scores 104 points AND Newgarden finishes 21st with one bonus point AND Rossi finishes fifth with no bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Rossi would be third.
Outcome #8:
Dixon wins the race and scores 104 points AND Newgarden finishes 21st with one bonus point AND Pagenaud finishes fifth with one bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
In every possible three-way tie, Newgarden is champion with Dixon in second and either Rossi or Pagenaud in third. There is no possible three-way tie that does not involve Newgarden and only involves Rossi, Pagenaud and Dixon.
History is on Newgarden's Side
Laguna Seca hosted the IndyCar finale eight times, from 1989 to 1996. On all eight occasions the championship leader entering Laguna Seca left Laguna Seca as champion.
In four of those eight years, the championship had been clinched prior to Laguna Seca with Emerson Fittipaldi in 1989, Al Unser, Jr. in 1990 and 1994 and Nigel Mansell in 1993.
In the four years the title was undecided entering Laguna Seca, the championship leader extended the gap with Michael Andretti doing it in 1991 and Jimmy Vasser doing it in 1996.
In 1992, Bobby Rahal entered Laguna Seca with a 12-point lead over Michael Andretti but the final championship margin was four points as Andretti finished second and Rahal was fourth. In 1995, Jacques Villeneuve had a 16-point championship lead entering the race over Al Unser, Jr. and the final championship margin was 11 points, as Unser, Jr. finished sixth and Villeneuve finished 11th.
Championship Ifs
If Josef Newgarden wins the championship Newgarden will be the only Team Penske driver with multiple championship this decade.
If Newgarden wins the championship he will be the first American driver with multiple championships since Sam Hornish, Jr.
If Newgarden wins the championship he will be first driver with multiple championships before the age of 30 since Scott Dixon.
If Newgarden wins the championship he will be the first driver to win the championship after winning the season opener since Will Power in 2014.
If Newgarden wins the championship it will be the fourth consecutive season the driver leading the championship entering the finale won the title. It would be the longest stretch where the championship lead did not change in the finale since the first 13 years of the IRL from 1996 to 2008. The championship lead also did not change in the finale in the 2000-2007 CART/Champ Car seasons.
If Alexander Rossi wins the championship but does not win the race Rossi will be the first champion with fewer than three victories since Gil de Ferran won two races and the championship in 2001.
If Rossi wins the championship it will be the first time since Scott Dixon in 2008 that the vice-champion from the previous season won the title the following year.
If Rossi wins the championship it will be Andretti Autosport's fifth championship joining Tony Kanaan in 2004, Dan Wheldon in 2005, Dario Franchitti in 2007 and Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012.
If Rossi wins the championship he will be the tenth Californian to win the championship and the first since Jimmy Vasser in 1996.
If Rossi or Newgarden wins the championship it will be the first time there will be two American champions in a three-season period since Greg Ray, Buddy Lazier and Sam Hornish, Jr. combined to win four consecutive championships from 1999-2002.
If Simon Pagenaud wins the championship Pagenaud will be the first driver to win the championship and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year since Dario Franchitti in 2010.
If Pagenaud wins the championship he will be the first Team Penske driver to win the championship and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year since Sam Hornish, Jr. in 2006.
If Pagenaud wins the championship he will be the only Team Penske driver with multiple championship this decade.
If Pagenaud wins the championship but does not finish on the podium it will only be the second time the champion has had fewer than five podium finishes since 2000 joining Scott Dixon's four podium finishes in 2015.
If Pagenaud wins the championship but does not finish in the top five his six top five finishes will be the fewest top five finishes for a championship since Buddy Lazier had six top five finishes in a nine-race season in 2000. It will be the lowest percentage of top five finishes for a champion at 35.29% since the CART-USAC split in 1979.
If Scott Dixon wins the championship it will be Dixon's sixth championship, putting him one behind A.J. Foyt for the all-time record.
If Dixon wins the championship it will be the first time Dixon has won championships in consecutive years and it will be the first time a driver won consecutive championships since Dario Franchitti won three consecutive from 2009-11.
If Dixon wins the championship he will be the oldest champion at 39 years old since Nigel Mansell won the 1993 championship at 40 years old.
If Dixon wins the championship it will be the first time the champion has had at least ten podium finishes since Franchitti had ten podium finishes in 2010.
If Dixon finishes on the podium but does not win the championship it will be the first time a driver had at least ten podium finishes but did not win the championship since Dixon had ten podium finishes in 2009 and Ryan Briscoe had 11 podium finishes in 2009.
If Rossi, Pagenaud or Dixon wins the championship it will be the sixth time in the 12 seasons since reunification that the championship lead changed in the final race of the season.
Rookie of the Year Battle
While four drivers will battle for the championship, three drivers are contesting the Rookie of the Year honors for the 2019 season.
Felix Rosenqvist heads to Laguna Seca seventh in the championship, top rookie, with 365 points. Santino Ferrucci rounds out the top ten in the championship on 339 points. Colton Herta is still alive, 13th in the championship on 316 points.
Rosenqvist picked up his second podium finish of the season last time out in Portland and it was the eighth time Rosenqvist was the top finish rookie this season. Ferrucci has been the top rookie in four races this season but all of those have been oval races. Marcus Ericsson cannot win Rookie of the Year but he could still be the second best rookie and he has been the top rookie in three races. Herta has only been the top rookie in one race this season, his victory at Austin.
Another runner-up finish for Rosenqvist would guarantee him Rookie of the Year honors. For Herta to have any shot of Rookie of the Year, he will need Rosenqvist to finish outside the top seven.
Laguna Seca Experience
IndyCar has not been to Laguna Seca since 2004 and that means few drivers competing this weekend have experience at the track in the top level of North American open-wheel racing.
Only four drivers race at Laguna Seca in CART/Champ Car: Tony Kanaan, Scott Dixon, Sébastien Bourdais and Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Laguna Seca is the location of Kanaan's first career podium finish, which came in the 1998 race when he finished third. Kanaan's average finish in five Laguna Seca starts is 13.2.
Dixon, Bourdais and Hunter-Reay all have two starts at the track. Dixon ran the 2001 and 2002 races and he finished fourth and sixth in his two Laguna Seca starts. He started third and ninth in those two races. Bourdais and Hunter-Reay each ran the 2003 and 2004 races. Bourdais retired from the first race because of a turbo issue but he eighth in the next race. Hunter-Reay was a lap down in the 2003 race in 12th but he finished fifth in 2004. Hunter-Reay won at Laguna Seca in 2002 in the Alantic Championship.
Spencer Pigot, Ed Jones, Jack Harvey, Max Chilton and Zach Veach all ran at Laguna Seca in Indy Lights when the series used the track as its season finale in 2015 and 2016. Pigot swept the 2015 races.
Jones and Chilton each finished third in the 2015 races while Harvey finished fifth in both 2015 races. Jones returned in 2016 where he finished second and fourth and clinched the Indy Lights championship.
Prior to Chilton's Indy Lights starts at Laguna Seca, he ran in the 2007 Star Mazda race at the track and he finished 15th after starting fourth.
Veach finished third in the first 2016 race and he followed it up with a victory in the second race. Veach also competed at the track in Star Mazda in 2012.
James Hinchcliffe has victories at Laguna Seca. He won the 2005 Star Mazda race with Jonathan Klein in second and Graham Rahal was third. Hinchcliffe's other victory was the 2008 Atlantic Championship race at the track.
Marco Andretti was also in that 2005 Star Mazda race but was disqualified from a sixth place finish due to a technical infringement.
Simon Pagenaud is a two-time winner at Laguna Seca in the American Le Mans Series. He won the 2009 race with Gil de Ferran as his co-driver and he won the following year with David Brabham and Marino Franchitti in what was a six-hour race.
Graham Rahal's first major outing at Laguna Seca was in A1GP in 2005 when he drove for Team Lebanon. The Lebanese-American driver retired in the first race and ended up in 21st and he had an accident in the second race and was classified in 20th. Notable drivers in that A1GP weekend were Salvador Durán, who swept the races, Nicolas Lapierre, Álvaro Parente, Patrick Carpentier, Timo Scheider, Bryan Herta, Ryan Briscoe, Mathias Lauda, Christian Fittipaldi, Jos Verstappen, Tomáš Enge and Max Papis.
Conor Daly returns to Andretti Autosport for the IndyCar finale and Daly has recent experience at Laguna Seca. He swept the Lamborghini Super Trofeo races with Brandon Gdovic this past weekend in support of the IMSA weekend from the track. Daly had previously won at Laguna Seca in Star Mazda in 2010.
Alexander Rossi got his start at Laguna Seca in Skip Barber competition but he also ran at the track in Formula BMW Americas in 2008. His best finish was second to Canadian Gianmarco Raimondo.
Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series have championships left unclaimed but it could be over very quickly in Indy Lights.
Oliver Askew heads into Laguna Seca with 442 points and he has a 41-point lead over Rinus VeeKay. All Askew has to do this weekend to clinch the championship is score 23 points, which could be done simply by starting both Laguna Seca races this weekend or he could clinch it with a runner-up finish in the first race.
The battle for third in Indy Lights is a little tighter. Ryan Norman sits on 328 points, eight clear of the most recent winner Toby Sowery and Robert Megennis is 14 points behind his Andretti Autosport teammate for third.
Indy Lights will race at 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday September 21st and at 12:10 p.m. ET on Sunday September 22nd.
Kyle Kirkwood has won six consecutive races and eight of the last nine races and that has lifted Kirkwood to the Indy Pro 2000 championship lead on 382 points, 20 points clear of Rasmus Lindh. While Kirkwood has been strong, his work is not done yet. Kirkwood needs to score 46 points this weekend to clinch the title. A runner-up finish and a third place finish would be enough for Kirkwood to claim the championship.
Parker Thompson is third in Indy Pro 2000 on 300 points, six points ahead of Daniel Frost and Sting Ray Robb is fifth on 280 points.
The first Indy Pro 2000 race will be at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday September 21st with the final race of the season being at 6:15 p.m. ET on Sunday September 22nd.
While Askew and Kirkwood could have each title wrapped up before the second race of the weekend, the U.S. F2000 championship will likely come down to the final lap of the season.
Hunter McElrea has won four consecutive races and he has taken the championship lead from Braden Eves. McElrea heads to Laguna Seca on 316 points, six points ahead of Eves. Eves has won five races this season but he has not won since Road America in June. Eves has only two podium finishes since that Road America victory, both were runner-up finishes to McElrea at Portland. McElrea has started on pole position for four consecutive races and Eves has not won a pole position since the second race during the Grand Prix of Indianapolis weekend.
Eves is looking to give Cape Motorsports its ninth consecutive U.S. F2000 drivers' championship, although that record does deserve a note that the 2014 champion Florian Latorre ran the first seven races with Belardi Auto Racing before running the final seven races with Cape Motorsports.
Darren Keane is third in U.S. F2000 on 241 points, four ahead of Colin Kaminsky and 16 points ahead of Christian Rasmussen.
U.S. F2000 will race at 8:05 p.m. ET on Saturday September 21st and the final race for U.S. F2000 is scheduled for 1:25 p.m. ET on Saturday September 22nd.
Fast Facts
This will be the 12th IndyCar race to take place on September 22nd but first since Gil de Ferran won at Rockingham in 2001 over Kenny Bräck.
This year's race will come 28 years to the day Michael Andretti won at Road America in what would be his lone championship season.
Team Penske has the most victories at Laguna Seca with six victories. Truesports has the second most victories among teams with four. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Newman/Haas Racing and Forsythe Racing all have three Laguna Seca victories. Chip Ganassi Racing has two victories at the track.
Chevrolet has five Laguna Seca victories while Honda has three Laguna Seca victories.
The only Chevrolet victory at Laguna Seca that was not a Team Penske entry was Michael Andretti in 1991 driving for Newman/Haas Racing.
Dallara has never won a Laguna Seca race.
American drivers have won 12 of 22 Laguna Seca races but only three of the previous 12 Laguna Seca races have had an American winner.
The only other nationalities to win at Laguna Seca are Italian, Canadian and Brazilian.
Paul Tracy and Patrick Carpentier combined for four Canadian victories.
Teo Fabi, Alex Zanardi and Max Papis are the three Italian winners.
Gil de Ferran, Hélio Castroneves and Cristiano da Matta are the three Brazilian winners.
Bryan Herta, Tony Kanaan and Cristiano da Matta each won in IndyCar and Indy Lights at Laguna Seca.
Jimmy Vasser and Patrick Carpentier each won in IndyCar and the Atlantic Championship at Laguna Seca.
An American driver has not finished on the podium in the last five Laguna Seca races and American drivers have a combined for three top five finishes and seven top ten finishes in those five races.
The last Laguna Seca race with multiple American drivers on the podium was in 1996 when Bryan Herta and Scott Pruett were second and third behind Alex Zanardi. That 1996 race is also the last time a Laguna Seca race had multiple Americans finish in the top five as Jimmy Vasser also finished fourth in that race.
This year's Laguna Seca race has 24 entries. Only three Laguna Seca races have had fewer than 24 entries, 2001-2003.
The average starting position for a Laguna Seca winner is 2.681 with a median of one.
The pole-sitter has won 14 times at Laguna Seca. The winner has started on the front row 18 times. The winner has started in the top three 20 times.
The only Laguna Seca races where the winner did not start in the top three were in 1997, when Jimmy Vasser won from sixth, and in 2001, when Max Papis won from 25th.
The average number of lead changes in a Laguna Seca race is 2.863 with a median of three.
There have been six Laguna Seca races with zero lead changes, all coming in the last 17 Laguna Seca races.
In the 17 Laguna Seca races after the track reconfiguration there have been four races with five lead changes or more.
The average number of cautions in a Laguna Seca race is 1.818 with a median of 1.5. The average number of caution laps is 7.681 with a median of eight laps.
Six Laguna Seca races have had no cautions.
Six Laguna Seca races have had three cautions or more.
The most cautions in a Laguna Seca race is eight in 2001 and the most caution laps is 29, which also came in 2001.
Possible Milestones:
If Scott Dixon takes the green flag, he will make his 321st start, moving him ahead of Al Unser, Jr. for sixth all-time.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 24 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Alexander Rossi needs to lead 81 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 12 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Alexander Rossi finishes ahead of Josef Newgarden but Josef Newgarden wins his second championship. Newgarden will also finish ahead of Ed Jones. Scott Dixon gets a top five finish. A Honda driver wins Rookie of the Year. Graham Rahal does not run into anyone at the start. Takuma Sato does not run into anyone at the start. There will be at least one notable pass in turn three, turn five and into the corkscrew. Tony Kanaan will finish worse than his car number. Jack Harvey will not advance to the second round of qualifying. One of the drivers with an Indy Lights podium finish in the IL-15 chassis at Laguna Seca will finish in the top ten. The race winner will make at least three pit stops. Sleeper: Max Chilton.
Championship Picture
Josef Newgarden, Alexander Rossi, Simon Pagenaud and Scott Dixon head to Laguna Seca alive for the Astor Cup. Pagenaud, Newgarden and Dixon are responsible for the last three championships while Rossi is attempting to win his first IndyCar title.
Newgarden enters holding serve with a 41-point lead over Rossi, a 42-point lead over Pagenaud and 85 points over Dixon.
All Newgarden has to do to clinch the championship is finish in the top four regardless of where any of the other three championship contenders finish. In 2019, Newgarden has finished in the top four on ten occasions, however he had not finished in the top four in the last four races.
Rossi's best chance at the championship will be a race victory. However, a race victory is not even the simplest route to the title. If Rossi wins and only scores one bonus point for leading a lap, all Newgarden has to do is finish fifth to clinch the championship should Newgarden not score any bonus points. If Rossi finishes second with no bonus points, all Newgarden would have to do is finish tenth or better to clinch the title. A third place result for Rossi means Newgarden can win the title with a 20th place finish. The worst result Rossi can score and win the championship is seventh but he will need to score at least two bonus points in that case.
With only a point separating Rossi and Pagenaud, Pagenaud's championship aspirations follow a similar path. A 101-point victory for Pagenaud means Newgarden just has to finish fifth. If Pagenaud is second, Newgarden clinches the title with an 11th-place finish. A third place result for Pagenaud allows Newgarden to take the title with at least a 21st-place finish. The worst result Pagenaud can score and win the championship is seventh with at least two bonus, the same as Rossi.
If Newgarden starts the race, Dixon can only with the title with a race victory. A 101-point victory for Dixon means Newgarden can win the title with a 22nd-place finish. If Dixon scores 104 points in a maximum points victory, he forces Newgarden to at least finish 20th. Even if Dixon gets the result he wants for Newgarden, he will need Rossi's day and Pagenaud's day to go a certain way.
A 104-point victory for Dixon means Newgarden will have to finish 21st or worse, Rossi would have to finish fifth or worse with no bonus points and Pagenaud would have to finish fifth or worse with no more than one bonus point.
The bad news for Dixon is Newgarden's worst finish this season was 19th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he has never finished outside the top twenty since joining Team Penske. His last finish outside the top twenty was at Texas in 2016, the race where he broke his clavicle and wrist. In his IndyCar career, Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty on 19 occasions in 133 starts. Only five of those 19 results occurred on natural-terrain road courses, including three times at Sonoma in 2012 (23rd), 2013 (24th) and 2015 (21st). The other two were at Mid-Ohio in 2013 (23rd) and the 2016 Grand Prix of Indianapolis (21st).
Entering this race, the tiebreaker is advantage Newgarden as he wins all tiebreaker because he is guaranteed to have more victories than Rossi and Dixon and he is guaranteed to have more runner-up finishes than Pagenaud. Newgarden had four victories while Pagenaud has three victories and Rossi and Dixon have each won twice. Newgarden has two runner-up finishes while Rossi has three, Dixon has six and Pagenaud has zero.
There is no possible way there could be a four-way tie but there are eight possible outcomes that lead to a three-way tie:
Outcome #1:
Dixon wins the race but only scores 101 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with no bonus points AND Rossi finishes sixth and scores one bonus point. In this case, Newgarden would be champion, Dixon would be second and Rossi would be third.
Outcome #2:
Dixon wins the race but only scores 101 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with no bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes sixth with two bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be champion, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #3:
Dixon wins the race but only scores 101 points AND Newgarden finishes 23rd with two bonus points AND Rossi finishes sixth with one bonus point. In that case, Newgarden would be champion, Dixon would be second and Rossi would be third.
Outcome #4:
Dixon wins the race and scores 102 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with one bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes sixth with three bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #5:
Dixon wins the race and scores 103 points AND Newgarden finishes 21st with no bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes fifth with no bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #6:
Dixon wins the race and scores 103 points AND Newgarden finishes 22nd with two bonus points AND Pagenaud finishes fifth with no bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
Outcome #7:
Dixon wins the race and scores 104 points AND Newgarden finishes 21st with one bonus point AND Rossi finishes fifth with no bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Rossi would be third.
Outcome #8:
Dixon wins the race and scores 104 points AND Newgarden finishes 21st with one bonus point AND Pagenaud finishes fifth with one bonus points. In this case, Newgarden would be championship, Dixon would be second and Pagenaud would be third.
In every possible three-way tie, Newgarden is champion with Dixon in second and either Rossi or Pagenaud in third. There is no possible three-way tie that does not involve Newgarden and only involves Rossi, Pagenaud and Dixon.
History is on Newgarden's Side
Laguna Seca hosted the IndyCar finale eight times, from 1989 to 1996. On all eight occasions the championship leader entering Laguna Seca left Laguna Seca as champion.
In four of those eight years, the championship had been clinched prior to Laguna Seca with Emerson Fittipaldi in 1989, Al Unser, Jr. in 1990 and 1994 and Nigel Mansell in 1993.
In the four years the title was undecided entering Laguna Seca, the championship leader extended the gap with Michael Andretti doing it in 1991 and Jimmy Vasser doing it in 1996.
In 1992, Bobby Rahal entered Laguna Seca with a 12-point lead over Michael Andretti but the final championship margin was four points as Andretti finished second and Rahal was fourth. In 1995, Jacques Villeneuve had a 16-point championship lead entering the race over Al Unser, Jr. and the final championship margin was 11 points, as Unser, Jr. finished sixth and Villeneuve finished 11th.
Championship Ifs
If Josef Newgarden wins the championship Newgarden will be the only Team Penske driver with multiple championship this decade.
If Newgarden wins the championship he will be the first American driver with multiple championships since Sam Hornish, Jr.
If Newgarden wins the championship he will be first driver with multiple championships before the age of 30 since Scott Dixon.
If Newgarden wins the championship he will be the first driver to win the championship after winning the season opener since Will Power in 2014.
If Newgarden wins the championship it will be the fourth consecutive season the driver leading the championship entering the finale won the title. It would be the longest stretch where the championship lead did not change in the finale since the first 13 years of the IRL from 1996 to 2008. The championship lead also did not change in the finale in the 2000-2007 CART/Champ Car seasons.
If Alexander Rossi wins the championship but does not win the race Rossi will be the first champion with fewer than three victories since Gil de Ferran won two races and the championship in 2001.
If Rossi wins the championship it will be the first time since Scott Dixon in 2008 that the vice-champion from the previous season won the title the following year.
If Rossi wins the championship it will be Andretti Autosport's fifth championship joining Tony Kanaan in 2004, Dan Wheldon in 2005, Dario Franchitti in 2007 and Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012.
If Rossi wins the championship he will be the tenth Californian to win the championship and the first since Jimmy Vasser in 1996.
If Rossi or Newgarden wins the championship it will be the first time there will be two American champions in a three-season period since Greg Ray, Buddy Lazier and Sam Hornish, Jr. combined to win four consecutive championships from 1999-2002.
If Simon Pagenaud wins the championship Pagenaud will be the first driver to win the championship and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year since Dario Franchitti in 2010.
If Pagenaud wins the championship he will be the first Team Penske driver to win the championship and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year since Sam Hornish, Jr. in 2006.
If Pagenaud wins the championship he will be the only Team Penske driver with multiple championship this decade.
If Pagenaud wins the championship but does not finish on the podium it will only be the second time the champion has had fewer than five podium finishes since 2000 joining Scott Dixon's four podium finishes in 2015.
If Pagenaud wins the championship but does not finish in the top five his six top five finishes will be the fewest top five finishes for a championship since Buddy Lazier had six top five finishes in a nine-race season in 2000. It will be the lowest percentage of top five finishes for a champion at 35.29% since the CART-USAC split in 1979.
If Scott Dixon wins the championship it will be Dixon's sixth championship, putting him one behind A.J. Foyt for the all-time record.
If Dixon wins the championship it will be the first time Dixon has won championships in consecutive years and it will be the first time a driver won consecutive championships since Dario Franchitti won three consecutive from 2009-11.
If Dixon wins the championship he will be the oldest champion at 39 years old since Nigel Mansell won the 1993 championship at 40 years old.
If Dixon wins the championship it will be the first time the champion has had at least ten podium finishes since Franchitti had ten podium finishes in 2010.
If Dixon finishes on the podium but does not win the championship it will be the first time a driver had at least ten podium finishes but did not win the championship since Dixon had ten podium finishes in 2009 and Ryan Briscoe had 11 podium finishes in 2009.
If Rossi, Pagenaud or Dixon wins the championship it will be the sixth time in the 12 seasons since reunification that the championship lead changed in the final race of the season.
Rookie of the Year Battle
While four drivers will battle for the championship, three drivers are contesting the Rookie of the Year honors for the 2019 season.
Felix Rosenqvist heads to Laguna Seca seventh in the championship, top rookie, with 365 points. Santino Ferrucci rounds out the top ten in the championship on 339 points. Colton Herta is still alive, 13th in the championship on 316 points.
Rosenqvist picked up his second podium finish of the season last time out in Portland and it was the eighth time Rosenqvist was the top finish rookie this season. Ferrucci has been the top rookie in four races this season but all of those have been oval races. Marcus Ericsson cannot win Rookie of the Year but he could still be the second best rookie and he has been the top rookie in three races. Herta has only been the top rookie in one race this season, his victory at Austin.
Another runner-up finish for Rosenqvist would guarantee him Rookie of the Year honors. For Herta to have any shot of Rookie of the Year, he will need Rosenqvist to finish outside the top seven.
Laguna Seca Experience
IndyCar has not been to Laguna Seca since 2004 and that means few drivers competing this weekend have experience at the track in the top level of North American open-wheel racing.
Only four drivers race at Laguna Seca in CART/Champ Car: Tony Kanaan, Scott Dixon, Sébastien Bourdais and Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Laguna Seca is the location of Kanaan's first career podium finish, which came in the 1998 race when he finished third. Kanaan's average finish in five Laguna Seca starts is 13.2.
Dixon, Bourdais and Hunter-Reay all have two starts at the track. Dixon ran the 2001 and 2002 races and he finished fourth and sixth in his two Laguna Seca starts. He started third and ninth in those two races. Bourdais and Hunter-Reay each ran the 2003 and 2004 races. Bourdais retired from the first race because of a turbo issue but he eighth in the next race. Hunter-Reay was a lap down in the 2003 race in 12th but he finished fifth in 2004. Hunter-Reay won at Laguna Seca in 2002 in the Alantic Championship.
Spencer Pigot, Ed Jones, Jack Harvey, Max Chilton and Zach Veach all ran at Laguna Seca in Indy Lights when the series used the track as its season finale in 2015 and 2016. Pigot swept the 2015 races.
Jones and Chilton each finished third in the 2015 races while Harvey finished fifth in both 2015 races. Jones returned in 2016 where he finished second and fourth and clinched the Indy Lights championship.
Prior to Chilton's Indy Lights starts at Laguna Seca, he ran in the 2007 Star Mazda race at the track and he finished 15th after starting fourth.
Veach finished third in the first 2016 race and he followed it up with a victory in the second race. Veach also competed at the track in Star Mazda in 2012.
James Hinchcliffe has victories at Laguna Seca. He won the 2005 Star Mazda race with Jonathan Klein in second and Graham Rahal was third. Hinchcliffe's other victory was the 2008 Atlantic Championship race at the track.
Marco Andretti was also in that 2005 Star Mazda race but was disqualified from a sixth place finish due to a technical infringement.
Simon Pagenaud is a two-time winner at Laguna Seca in the American Le Mans Series. He won the 2009 race with Gil de Ferran as his co-driver and he won the following year with David Brabham and Marino Franchitti in what was a six-hour race.
Graham Rahal's first major outing at Laguna Seca was in A1GP in 2005 when he drove for Team Lebanon. The Lebanese-American driver retired in the first race and ended up in 21st and he had an accident in the second race and was classified in 20th. Notable drivers in that A1GP weekend were Salvador Durán, who swept the races, Nicolas Lapierre, Álvaro Parente, Patrick Carpentier, Timo Scheider, Bryan Herta, Ryan Briscoe, Mathias Lauda, Christian Fittipaldi, Jos Verstappen, Tomáš Enge and Max Papis.
Conor Daly returns to Andretti Autosport for the IndyCar finale and Daly has recent experience at Laguna Seca. He swept the Lamborghini Super Trofeo races with Brandon Gdovic this past weekend in support of the IMSA weekend from the track. Daly had previously won at Laguna Seca in Star Mazda in 2010.
Alexander Rossi got his start at Laguna Seca in Skip Barber competition but he also ran at the track in Formula BMW Americas in 2008. His best finish was second to Canadian Gianmarco Raimondo.
Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series have championships left unclaimed but it could be over very quickly in Indy Lights.
Oliver Askew heads into Laguna Seca with 442 points and he has a 41-point lead over Rinus VeeKay. All Askew has to do this weekend to clinch the championship is score 23 points, which could be done simply by starting both Laguna Seca races this weekend or he could clinch it with a runner-up finish in the first race.
The battle for third in Indy Lights is a little tighter. Ryan Norman sits on 328 points, eight clear of the most recent winner Toby Sowery and Robert Megennis is 14 points behind his Andretti Autosport teammate for third.
Indy Lights will race at 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday September 21st and at 12:10 p.m. ET on Sunday September 22nd.
Kyle Kirkwood has won six consecutive races and eight of the last nine races and that has lifted Kirkwood to the Indy Pro 2000 championship lead on 382 points, 20 points clear of Rasmus Lindh. While Kirkwood has been strong, his work is not done yet. Kirkwood needs to score 46 points this weekend to clinch the title. A runner-up finish and a third place finish would be enough for Kirkwood to claim the championship.
Parker Thompson is third in Indy Pro 2000 on 300 points, six points ahead of Daniel Frost and Sting Ray Robb is fifth on 280 points.
The first Indy Pro 2000 race will be at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday September 21st with the final race of the season being at 6:15 p.m. ET on Sunday September 22nd.
While Askew and Kirkwood could have each title wrapped up before the second race of the weekend, the U.S. F2000 championship will likely come down to the final lap of the season.
Hunter McElrea has won four consecutive races and he has taken the championship lead from Braden Eves. McElrea heads to Laguna Seca on 316 points, six points ahead of Eves. Eves has won five races this season but he has not won since Road America in June. Eves has only two podium finishes since that Road America victory, both were runner-up finishes to McElrea at Portland. McElrea has started on pole position for four consecutive races and Eves has not won a pole position since the second race during the Grand Prix of Indianapolis weekend.
Eves is looking to give Cape Motorsports its ninth consecutive U.S. F2000 drivers' championship, although that record does deserve a note that the 2014 champion Florian Latorre ran the first seven races with Belardi Auto Racing before running the final seven races with Cape Motorsports.
Darren Keane is third in U.S. F2000 on 241 points, four ahead of Colin Kaminsky and 16 points ahead of Christian Rasmussen.
U.S. F2000 will race at 8:05 p.m. ET on Saturday September 21st and the final race for U.S. F2000 is scheduled for 1:25 p.m. ET on Saturday September 22nd.
Fast Facts
This will be the 12th IndyCar race to take place on September 22nd but first since Gil de Ferran won at Rockingham in 2001 over Kenny Bräck.
This year's race will come 28 years to the day Michael Andretti won at Road America in what would be his lone championship season.
Team Penske has the most victories at Laguna Seca with six victories. Truesports has the second most victories among teams with four. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Newman/Haas Racing and Forsythe Racing all have three Laguna Seca victories. Chip Ganassi Racing has two victories at the track.
Chevrolet has five Laguna Seca victories while Honda has three Laguna Seca victories.
The only Chevrolet victory at Laguna Seca that was not a Team Penske entry was Michael Andretti in 1991 driving for Newman/Haas Racing.
Dallara has never won a Laguna Seca race.
American drivers have won 12 of 22 Laguna Seca races but only three of the previous 12 Laguna Seca races have had an American winner.
The only other nationalities to win at Laguna Seca are Italian, Canadian and Brazilian.
Paul Tracy and Patrick Carpentier combined for four Canadian victories.
Teo Fabi, Alex Zanardi and Max Papis are the three Italian winners.
Gil de Ferran, Hélio Castroneves and Cristiano da Matta are the three Brazilian winners.
Bryan Herta, Tony Kanaan and Cristiano da Matta each won in IndyCar and Indy Lights at Laguna Seca.
Jimmy Vasser and Patrick Carpentier each won in IndyCar and the Atlantic Championship at Laguna Seca.
An American driver has not finished on the podium in the last five Laguna Seca races and American drivers have a combined for three top five finishes and seven top ten finishes in those five races.
The last Laguna Seca race with multiple American drivers on the podium was in 1996 when Bryan Herta and Scott Pruett were second and third behind Alex Zanardi. That 1996 race is also the last time a Laguna Seca race had multiple Americans finish in the top five as Jimmy Vasser also finished fourth in that race.
This year's Laguna Seca race has 24 entries. Only three Laguna Seca races have had fewer than 24 entries, 2001-2003.
The average starting position for a Laguna Seca winner is 2.681 with a median of one.
The pole-sitter has won 14 times at Laguna Seca. The winner has started on the front row 18 times. The winner has started in the top three 20 times.
The only Laguna Seca races where the winner did not start in the top three were in 1997, when Jimmy Vasser won from sixth, and in 2001, when Max Papis won from 25th.
The average number of lead changes in a Laguna Seca race is 2.863 with a median of three.
There have been six Laguna Seca races with zero lead changes, all coming in the last 17 Laguna Seca races.
In the 17 Laguna Seca races after the track reconfiguration there have been four races with five lead changes or more.
The average number of cautions in a Laguna Seca race is 1.818 with a median of 1.5. The average number of caution laps is 7.681 with a median of eight laps.
Six Laguna Seca races have had no cautions.
Six Laguna Seca races have had three cautions or more.
The most cautions in a Laguna Seca race is eight in 2001 and the most caution laps is 29, which also came in 2001.
Possible Milestones:
If Scott Dixon takes the green flag, he will make his 321st start, moving him ahead of Al Unser, Jr. for sixth all-time.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 24 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Alexander Rossi needs to lead 81 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 12 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Alexander Rossi finishes ahead of Josef Newgarden but Josef Newgarden wins his second championship. Newgarden will also finish ahead of Ed Jones. Scott Dixon gets a top five finish. A Honda driver wins Rookie of the Year. Graham Rahal does not run into anyone at the start. Takuma Sato does not run into anyone at the start. There will be at least one notable pass in turn three, turn five and into the corkscrew. Tony Kanaan will finish worse than his car number. Jack Harvey will not advance to the second round of qualifying. One of the drivers with an Indy Lights podium finish in the IL-15 chassis at Laguna Seca will finish in the top ten. The race winner will make at least three pit stops. Sleeper: Max Chilton.
