Thursday, September 26, 2019

Let's Look at the League - September 2019

The IndyCar season is over and for the 2019 season we have been keeping track of a fictional sub-championship where IndyCar was based on head-to-head weekly matches and ended with a playoff and one champion. It was also a two-league system with promotion of relegation.

Over the course of the season we have done these looks at the league and the last time we left you it was heading into the final week of the regular season for the top league and the penultimate week of the season for the second division.

What Did We Know?
We knew the #26 Andretti Autosport entry was being relegated.

We knew the #2 Penske, #9 Ganassi, #28 Andretti, #27 Andretti, #22 Penske, #12 Penske and #5 Schmidt Peterson Motorsports entries were in the playoffs.

We knew the final playoff spot was between the #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan entry and the #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry.

We knew the final relegation spot was between the #21 ECR entry and the #98 Andretti.

We knew the #19 Coyne, #88 Harding Steinbrenner, #14 Foyt and the #59 Carlin entries were fighting for the two promotion spots.

What Happened Next?
Let's start with what happened at Pocono. and the final playoff spot.

Since Takuma Sato was caught in that first lap accident it gave the #20 ECR entry the final playoff spot with no drama.

It also set the seeding for the playoffs and the playoff match-ups and the first round looked like this:

#2 Penske vs. #5 SPM
#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske
#27 Andretti vs. #20 ECR

As for the relegation battle, Spencer Pigot had an accident on lap 40 and it meant he would lose his matchup with the #22 Penske of Simon Pagenaud. The bad news for Pigot was Marco Andretti and the #98 Andretti entry had been gifted the victory that weekend, as the #10 Ganassi entry of Felix Rosenqvist was involved in the first lap accident.

This combination of events kept the #98 Andretti entry up while the #21 ECR entry was relegated

Here is what the final standings looked like:

Conference 1
1.) #2 Penske 11-3
2.) #9 Ganassi 10-4
3.) #28 Andretti 8-6
4.) #20 ECR 7-7
5.) #30 RLLR 7-7
6.) #15 RLLR 6-8
7.) #18 Coyne 6-8
8.) #26 Andretti 1-13 - R

Conference 2
1.) #27 Andretti 12-2
2.) #22 Penske 10-4
3.) #12 Penske 10-4
4.) #5 SPM 7-7
5.) #10 Ganassi 5-9
6.) #7 SPM 5-9
7.) #98 Andretti 4-10
8.) #21 ECR 3-11 - R

What About The Promotion Battle?
With victories in the final two weekends of the year, the #19 Coyne entry earned promotion. The #14 Foyt entry and the #59 Carlin entry both won the final two weeks and it led to a tiebreaker for the final promotion spot. With the #14 Foyt entry going 3-0 against the #59 Carlin entry, the #14 Foyt entry moves up and the #59 Carlin entry remains in the second division.

Here is what the League Two standings looked like:

1.) #19 Coyne 10-5 - P
2.) #14 Foyt 9-6 - P
3.) #59 Carlin 9-6
4.) #88 HSR 8-7
5.) #4 Foyt 5-10
6.) #23/#31 Carlin 4-11

Quarterfinals
Gateway was the first round of the playoffs and it produced a surprise.

With Alexander Rossi's interesting strategy choice, combined with Ed Carpenter's break of not pitting before the final caution, the #20 ECR entry knocked out the #1 seed and the team with the best regular season record.

It was otherwise chalk with Josef Newgarden ahead of James Hinchcliffe, seventh to 12th and Simon Pagenaud was fifth, ahead of Ryan Hunter-Reay in eighth.

The other quarterfinal matchup was interesting because it put Scott Dixon against Will Power and they were two of the bottom three finishers. Power was the first one out after hitting the barrier exiting turn four. At the same time, Dixon had a punctured radiator. Who knows what would have happened if both cars had continued without any issues. Power was looking racy that night but Dixon advanced and it set up these semifinal match-ups:

#2 Penske vs. #22 Penske
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR

Semifinals
Both Penske cars were in the back half of the grid at Portland with Newgarden starting 13th and Pagenaud in 18th.

Dixon started third and Ed Jones, who entered the #20 ECR entry started 23rd.

Dixon was quick and pressured Colton Herta for the overall race lead and got it before the first round of pit stops. Close to halfway through the race it appeared to be Dixon's race to lose and then he suffered a mechanical issue and that was it. He was able to re-join the race but three laps down and at that point the #20 ECR entry was out of reach and led to a surprise finalist, despite finishing a lap down in 14th.

In the other semifinal, Pagenaud spun at the start but was able to continue, however, he never really challenged Newgarden, who kept his nose clean and ended up finishing fifth to Pagenaud's seventh.

This set up the #2 Penske vs. the #20 ECR in the final at Laguna Seca

Final
Newgarden started fourth while Jones was starting 18th.

Newgarden remained at the front and since he was running for the actual drivers' championship, he was on the rear wing of Rossi for most of this one. Jones on the other hand was in the middle of the pack and it led to the unfortunate circumstance of being collateral damage when Santino Ferrucci ran into Takuma Sato on the only restart. Jones made contact with another car, went off course and ended up with damaged suspension.

Jones retired after completing 51 of 90 laps and it handed another championship to Newgarden and the #2 Penske entry.

What Does it All Mean?
Nothing. But it is fascinating to look at.

The overall champion was still the champion in this format. The runner-up was 14th in the entrant championship. The two semifinalists were second and fourth in the championship. The other quarterfinalists were third, fifth, eighth and 12th in the championship.

The top entries that missed the playoffs were the #10 Ganassi in sixth, the #88 HSR in seventh, which is in the second division, the #30 RLLR in ninth, the #15 RLLR in tenth and the #18 Coyne entry in 11th.

Looking Ahead
If we just do what we did last year, here is what the 2020 League One breakdown will look like:

Conference 1
#1 Penske
#9 Ganassi
#12 Penske
#30 RLLR
#15 RLLR
#19 Coyne
#20 ECR
#7 SPM

Conference 2
#22 Penske
#27 Andretti
#10 Ganassi
#28 Andretti
#18 Coyne
#5 SPM
#14 Foyt
#98 Andretti

And League Two will be the following:

League Two
#88 HSR
#21 ECR
#26 Andretti
#59 Carlin
#4 Foyt
#23/#31 Carlin

This is all subject to change. Entries could come and go. Nothing is set in stone and it is entirely tentative.

After what happened early in the season it is interesting to see the #88 HSR entry still in League Two with Colton Herta in that car. When Herta won at Austin it seemed he was destined for promotion but plenty of things went wrong at the wrong times in 2019 and that he wasn't one of the best two cars from those six entries is a complete shocker. I don't think that will happen again in 2020. I think the #88 HSR entry will be one of the two promoted teams.

The #88 HSR entry still might be promoted if one of the other entries fold. We aren't rooting for that but it is a reality in the IndyCar system. No team is safe.

This was fun. It is another wrinkle to the series and I think in this changing world this is something IndyCar and other motorsports series should consider adopting. In a world of fantasy sports and gambling where people are not necessarily worried about the outright winner, head-to-head match-ups and having a league structure might get more interested in these series.

I am not saying lets completely get rid of the full season aggregate championship structure but add a secondary championship that complements what already exists. It would make a race more interesting and, instead of just focusing on the leader, the battles on the racetrack could be much more meaningful. The battle for seventh could be a battle for a head-to-head victory and what if you had two or three or six of those in one race and in the closing laps? There would be a great emphasis on battles throughout the field.

Of course, you would need the teams to take this seriously otherwise it is for nothing. There is always the incentive of cash. You could get bonuses for each weekly winner. I am not sure how much would be enough for teams to take it seriously. With how low the purses are in IndyCar I think a $10,000 for each matchup winner would be enough. Then there is a final prize and IndyCar pays $1 million for the overall champion now. It could not give out another million dollars but it would have to be something. Maybe $100,000 for the playoff champion? I am not sure what is enough for these teams to care.

This format could be a change without having to change the fundamentals of a series and a championship. It could be a way to take something that people look at as an otherwise processional affair and dull into something intriguing because the battle for ninth and the battle for 11th could actually be for something. If it gets more people involved and participating in the series then it is worth it.

All we need is the powers at be to embrace it.