Friday, October 25, 2019

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2019 Season

The antepenultimate IndyCar review will be Chip Ganassi Racing. Coming off Scott Dixon's fifth championship, the team saw a shuffle with Ed Jones exiting after one season and Felix Rosenqvist entering after spending the last five years proving he is the best young driver in the world that every Formula One team has missed.

It wasn't a championship but 2019 was a stout season for Scott Dixon
Scott Dixon
Dixon entered the 2019 season looking to do something he had never done before: Successfully defend a championship and a successful defense would give him six titles, putting him one behind A.J. Foyt for the all-time record. While Dixon continued to pad his stats and move up the record book, a few rough days spoiled what was otherwise an exceptional season.

What objectively was his best race?
His two victories in the second Belle Isle race and at Mid-Ohio.

What subjectively was his best race?
Is it fair to say that despite winning two races Dixon never really had a dominating day in 2019?

Dixon was great in 2019 and he really did put up champion-like numbers but the only time he lead more than 50% of the laps in a race was his Belle Isle victory. He led the most laps in his Mid-Ohio victory but both his victories were races that could have gone another way.

Belle Isle was a race where Dixon was on pit lane when Spencer Pigot and Sébastien Bourdais got together and it put space between him and the other front-runners of Josef Newgarden, Alexander Rossi and James Hinchcliffe, who would all get together later in the race and Dixon had smooth sailing from there. When everyone else makes mistakes, Dixon usually comes out on top.

Mid-Ohio could have gone to his teammate Felix Rosenqvist but Dixon held on with worn tires, alternate tires nonetheless, and won in one of the best races at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. I think Mid-Ohio was better because it was the best of Dixon coming to light. His ability to conserve equipment and go faster than anybody else and win from eighth on the grid in a caution-free race is spectacular.

I realize none of the above answers the question so I am going to say Mid-Ohio because on worn tires he was able to hold off a hungry teammate in the dying laps.

What objectively was his worst race?
The first Belle Isle race, where Dixon brushed the barrier on the inside of turn seven, broke his suspension and sent him in the tire barrier on the outside of the turn, ending his day while he was in contention for a podium finish. Up to this point, Dixon had completed every lap of the 2019 season, he had 12 consecutive lead lap finishes and he had finished 31 consecutive races.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There are two races Dixon should feel angry about and the first is the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. It was his race. He had it in the bag. He had the best car for most of the day and he had a 5.5-second lead with six laps to go. It should have been his but Simon Pagenuad was on fire in the wet and caught Dixon, making an audacious pass in turn nine of all places with three laps to go.

This race could have shifted the championship. Dixon wins it and he leads the championship by four points. Instead, he headed into Indianapolis 500 qualifying six points behind Josef Newgarden. It is absurd to think Dixon leading the championship after a Grand Prix of Indianapolis victory would have somehow significantly altered the results that occurred over the next 12 races but it is Dixon. People would have been afraid if Dixon, a historically slow starter, was leading the championship after five races. Things would have been different.

The second is Portland because he was leading and he seemed destined to win that race, take a huge chunk out of Newgarden's championship lead and head to Laguna Seca down about 45 points to Newgarden instead of 85 points like he was. Rossi and Pagenaud were only 41 points and 42 points behind Newgarden entering Laguna Seca. The finale would have been completely different if you had Rossi, Pagenaud and Dixon all within 45 to 50 points of Newgarden and after seeing how Newgarden's day played out, the championship could have gone to someone else.

Scott Dixon's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 4th (578 Points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 10
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 214
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 8
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 5.5625
Average Finish: 7.6471

Felix Rosenqivst left his mark on the 2019 IndyCar season
Felix Rosenqvist
After three years of trying, Chip Ganassi Racing had finally landed the big fish it had been chasing. After impressing the team in testing all those years ago, Rosenqvist entered IndyCar with Formula E, Indy Lights, Formula Three and sports car triumphs already on his résumé. Expectations were high and despite a few stumbles the Swede proved he had what it took for IndyCar.

What objectively was his best race?
Rosenqvist had two runner-up finishes in 2019, the aforementioned runner-up finish at Mid-Ohio to Dixon and the gap was 0.0934, and the other runner-up finish was at Portland behind Will Power.

What subjectively was his best race?
It was neither of his runner-up finishes. It was the final race of Rosenqvist's rookie season at Laguna Seca. He had a car that should have started on the front row. After a qualifying mishap he started 14th and went on a tear up to fifth without much help from the one caution. Rosenqvist did it on his own. He very well should have won the race that day. He had to finish seventh to clinch rookie of the year and he did it.

Mid-Ohio deserves a mention because Rosenqvist played strategy beautifully. He turned what appeared to be a two-stop race to a three-stop race on a dime. He got off the alternate tires at the correct time and it put him in a position late to chase down Dixon. Did traffic help Rosenqvist catch Dixon? Partially but with another lap that would have been Rosenqvist's victory.

What objectively was his worst race?
His Indianapolis 500 debut where he was caught in the Graham Rahal/Sébastien Bourdais accident in turn three and his race ended after 176 laps, leaving him in 28th position.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis was tough because he struggled to find speed, kind of found his feet and then had it taken from him but four other races deserved to be mentioned because they all happened early in the year and it seemed to show the learning Rosenqvist had to do: Austin, Long Beach, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the second Belle Isle race.

Rosenqvist struggled with tire degradation at Austin after starting fifth. It looked like he wasn't going to finish in the top ten and then he had contact with James Hinchcliffe put him into the barrier at pit entry guaranteeing he would not finish in the top ten.

Long Beach was Laguna Seca before Laguna Seca. Rosenqvist was going to make the Fast Six at Long Beach and then put it into the barrier in turn seven in the second round of qualifying and he had to start 12th. He was stuck in the middle of the field and he could not do better than tenth.

The Grand Prix of Indianapolis saw Rosenqvist start on pole position but lost the lead early to Dixon and he kept falling back. Also note he had two fires during pit stops! He still finished eighth but it was not the breakout performance many expected.

The second Belle Isle race was going to be at worst a sixth place finish but he bent his suspension after hitting a barrier, he held on as long as he could but lost the car in turn one and he ended up with a 16th place finish.

Felix Rosenqvist's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (425 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 10
Laps Led: 71
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 10.313
Average Finish: 10.706

An Early Look Ahead
Chip Ganassi Racing is really set for the next five years and it is expanding with the addition of Marcus Ericsson.

Scott Dixon will turn 40 next July. Felix Rosenqvist turns 28 years old next week. Ericsson is 29 years old. Dixon isn't going anywhere any time soon and I think he could easily run to 45. There is no reason to think Rosenqvist is going to drop that far off that he will lose his seat in 2021 or 2022. If anything he is only going to cement himself as the heir apparent to the number one throne at CGR when he is 33 years old. Ericsson was an odd addition but with the sports car program going away Ganassi has the personnel for a third car. If Ericsson works out then great. If results are not great in 2020 or 2021 the team will move on and either find another driver or that crew will go back to sports cars when Ganassi finds another program.

Either way, for the first time since Dario Franchitti was in the team CGR has two championship-caliber drivers. Rosenqvist stayed in Dixon's shadow for most of the season. He was there in qualifying and in the race and at the end of the year we saw Rosenqvist start to eek out ahead of Dixon. This season very well could have ended with two race victories to Rosenqvist and one for Dixon. Imagine how differently we would be viewing the 2019 offseason if that was the case.

I only expect Rosenqvist to force Dixon to raise his game and I think both drivers will win races in 2020. The question becomes can both drivers put together championship runs?

Dixon is always in it and 2019 was a championship season where he lost out because the few errors he made cost him dearly and mechanical failure fell at the wrong time. He only lost the title by 63 points. If you take away the punctured radiator at Gateway, the electrical issue while leading at Portland and if he holds on for another two and a quarter laps at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis the championship would have been his. He had ten podium finishes and is the first driver with double-figure podium finishes not to win the title since 2009 when he and Ryan Briscoe both did it. His 11 top five finishes were only behind Newgarden's 12 and he was level with Rossi. I do not foresee the same number of issues catching Dixon next season.

Rosenqvist was stellar on road and street courses but he has to improve on ovals. He had zero top ten finishes in five starts. Other than Indianapolis he was a mid-pack guy in the other four oval races. Unless Rosenqvist wins six to eight road course races, including the finale, he will need significantly better oval results to be in the championship discussion.

With that said, I am not sure any other team should feel more confident for 2020 than Chip Ganassi Racing. It is primed to win now and it is primed to win for the future.