Wednesday, October 23, 2019

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's 2019 Season

The eighth IndyCar team review will focus on Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. This was RLLR's second consecutive season with two cars and the team carried over its two drivers from 2018 with Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato returning to the organization. It was a solid season for the team but it again felt like something was missing.

There were high points and low points for Takuma Sato in 2019
Takuma Sato
This was Sato's second consecutive season at Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and he entered 2019 off the back of a victory at Portland. Sato stayed on his best form through the first half of the season but another year saw him take a step back come summer. He again ended up in the spotlight for the wrong reasons but redemption would follow.

What objectively was his best race?
His victory at Barber from pole position. Out of 90 laps, Sato led 74 of them. It was an old-fashioned beat down. It was one of the most complete performances Sato has had in his IndyCar career.

What subjectively was his best race?
His victory at Gateway, from fifth on the grid but really it was a comeback. Sato dropped to the rear almost immediately. At one point he was dead last and two laps down. And this was after a difficult week following the opening lap accident at Pocono that saw most of the fingers pointed in his direction.

Somehow, Sato pulled it out at Gateway. After falling behind he had to pit later than others and with the way the cautions fell, Sato cycled back onto the lead lap. When it came time for the final pit stops, Sato held on long enough for his final stop to come under caution for Sébastien Bourdais' spin. He had trapped many of the front-runners a lap down and he could make his final stop and retain the lead.

The victory did not come easy. Ed Carpenter put up a late charge but Sato got to the finish line 0.0399 seconds ahead of the American driver.

What objectively was his worst race?
Sato's worst finish was 22nd at Toronto after he lost engine after 67 of 85 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
I hate to harp on it but it is Pocono. It is not a matter of fault. I don't think everything can be 100% pinned on Sato but looking at his record and then looking at his Pocono record, there is a history of Sato putting himself in the wrong place.

Sato participated in all seven Pocono races from 2013 to 2019. Out of a possible 1,288 laps, Sato completed only 493 laps. Out of a possible 3,220 miles, Sato completed 1,232.5 miles. Sato failed to make it to lap ten in three of seven races, he failed to complete 63 miles in four of seven races and he only made the halfway point twice in his career at the track. Coincidentally, both times he made it to halfway he completed all 500 miles.

Most of Sato's incidents at Pocono are infamous. He bowled into Ryan Hunter-Reay entering the pit lane in 2013 while Hunter-Reay was running at the front. He spun on lap one after starting third in a race that was rain-delayed to Monday. The last two years he was caught in the early accidents with his role more prominent in 2019.

And he started in the top ten every year at Pocono! We should have almost known Pocono would not be Sato's day before we ever got there.

Takuma Sato's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 9th (415 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 4
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 200
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 5
Average Start: 10.563
Average Finish: 11.353

It was not a bad year for Graham Rahal but it was not a great one either
Graham Rahal
For the seventh consecutive season, Rahal ran for the family team and he entered with four consecutive years finishing in the top ten in the championship but the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Rahal also entered 2019 with a podium finish in eight consecutive seasons but he did not win a race in 2018 and he did not have a podium finish in the final 16 races of 2018.

What objectively was his best race?
Rahal had a third place finish at Texas and he spent pretty much the entire race in top ten and he extended his podium finish streak to nine consecutive seasons.

What subjectively was his best race?
There are two races I want to throw out there: Austin and Road America.

Rahal started tenth at Austin and he did a great job managing his tires while others struggled. He was always going to score a top ten result but the one caution for Felix Rosenqvist's spin put him in position for a top five result and he brought the car home in fourth.

At Road America, Rahal started fifth and spent the entire race in the top five. He didn't quite have the pace to keep up with Alexander Rossi, nobody did, and the Team Penske cars of Will Power and Josef Newgarden were a little out of reach but Rahal was the fourth best car that day and he finished fourth without putting a wheel wrong.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rahal made contact with Sébastien Bourdais in turn three with 24 laps to go in the Indianapolis 500 and it was while both cars were in the top ten and possibly being on the verge for a top five result. Rahal has only three top ten finishes in 12 Indianapolis 500 starts.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis is up there but Barber should probably top the list because it was setting up to be a great day for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The team swept the front row and both cars were quick in the race. During that first stint it even appeared Rahal might have a slightly better car than Sato and, instead of taking the lead on the racetrack, he was going to wait to leapfrog Sato during the pit cycle.

Unfortunately, Rahal had throttle issues on his first pit stop and he was taken out of contention right then and there. Barber proved to be Rahal's best chance of victory all season even though he had great runs at Texas and Road America. Barber was the closest he got to victory all season and it lasted all of two-dozen laps.

Graham Rahal's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 10th (389 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 9
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 10.75
Average Finish: 11.059

An Early Look Ahead
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had a textbook good season. The team won two races and it had two drivers finish in the top ten of the championship but it feels unfulfilled.

After Barber, it seemed RLLR might be the surprise of the season. The team swept the front row and this was after the team had a pretty encouraging outing at Austin. It felt like RLLR may have made a breakthrough and could have had both cars up front more.

That really wasn't the case but 2019 was a step forward. This was the first time RLLR had two drivers finish in the top ten of the championship since 2004. The drivers combined for eight top five finishes and it had its first pole position since 2007.

I am not sure how much is going to carry over to 2020. Sato may have won twice but he had fewer top ten finishes than in 2018. Rahal took a step back in the championship and since 2015 his championship finishes have been fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth and tenth! I think this team is good and it is on the doorstep of something great but it still has to put the pieces together.

Are Rahal and Sato the drivers capable of getting the team over that hump?

We have been watching Rahal for over a decade and he had one championship contending season. Maybe he can recapture that magic. Sato has never been a championship-contender and while in recent years we have seen him turn into a race winning driver he has plenty of poor days each year that you know at best he is just cracking the top ten in the championship.

Sato is going to stick around because he has Honda funding but after 2020, where does this team go? I think come 2021 this team has to start looking to the future. Rahal will only be 32 years in 2021. Rahal still has another decade in IndyCar if he wants it but this team has to position itself in 2020 to hire a top candidate in 2021. A strong year and the team could be ready for that next piece. A step back and then the team may be forced to keep Sato for another year and hope it can expand to that elusive third entry and snag a big fish.

This isn't a team that we expect to win every single race but it was not that long ago Rahal was fighting for the championship and he was flying solo. The team hasn't regressed since 2015 but it has found itself in a rut.

If any team can lay claim to a fourth spot in an IndyCar "Big Four" it is RLLR. The only problem is it is a distant fourth.