Wednesday, January 29, 2020

2020 Bathurst 12 Hour Preview

A week after Daytona the motorsports world turns it eyes to a 12-hour endurance race in Bathurst, Australia on the Mount Panorama Circuit.

For the 19th-time the Bathurst 12 Hour will take place and for the fifth consecutive year this race will be the opening round to the Intercontinental GT Challenge season. The five-race IGTC calendar will feature Bathurst, the 24 Hours of Spa on July 25-26th, Suzuka 10 Hours on August 23rd, the inaugural Indianapolis 8 Hours on October 3rd and the Kyalami 9 Hours on November 22nd.

This year's Bathurst race will feature 11 manufactures. Porsche took the IGTC championship last year, ending Audi's run of three consecutive championships in the first three years of IGTC competition. Porsche driver Dennis Olsen won the drivers' championship, joining Laurens Vanthoor, Markus Winkelhock and Tristan Vautier as the drivers to take that honor. Porsche won three of the five races in the 2019 season after having never won a IGTC race since the introduction of the series.

Porsche will defend its title while Mercedes-AMG will look to breakthrough and gets its first IGTC crown after falling seven points behind Porsche. Audi and BMW made it a clean sweep of the top four in the championship for German manufactures. The other manufactures competing for the championship will be Lamborghini, Bentley, Honda, Aston Martin and Ferrari. Lamborghini and Aston Martin are new to the championship while Nissan has not committed to the full season.

Five different manufactures have won the last five editions of the Bathurst 12 Hour. Nissan won in 2015 with McLaren, Ferrari, Audi and Porsche taking the races since. Mazda has the most Bathurst 12 Hour victories, having won the race four times when it was a touring car race in the 1990s. Audi has three victories while Mitsubishi, BMW and Ferrari each have two victories. Mitsubishi and BMW had all of their victories come when the race was touring car based.

There are 39 entries for this year's Bathurst 12 Hour with 33 Class A entries for GT3 cars, two Class C entries for GT4 cars and four Class I entries for invitational cars. Class A is broken down into three categories, Class A Pro, Class A Pro-Am and Class A Silver. There are 20 Class A-Pro entries, six Class A-PA and seven Class A-SIL entries.

This preview will look at each Class A entry, give you the team, the drivers, reasons why that entry could win this race and reasons why that entry will not win the Bathurst 12 Hour.

#1 Earl Bamber Motorsport Porsche GT3 R
Drivers: Earl Bamber, Laurens Vanthoor, Craig Lowndes
Why this car could win: Earl Bamber Motorsport won this race last year and it is taking the defending IMSA GT Le Mans class champions in Bamber himself and Vanthoor and pairing them with two-time Bathurst 12 Hour winner and seven-time Bathurst 1000 winner Lowndes.
Why this car will not win: This is a completely new lineup from last year's winners, Bamber and Vanthoor are coming over from the 24 Hours of Daytona and Lowndes is not in his prime anymore. On paper, this is a great entry and I think this car will be pushing for the victory but this is not the Porsche team running for the IGTC championship. Politics could play out on the mountain.

#2 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS GT3
Drivers: Dries Vanthoor, Christopher Haase, Frédéric Vervisch
Why this car could win: Vanthoor won this race two years ago, Haase is a two-time 24 Hours Nürburgring winner and Vervisch and Vanthoor won the Suzuka 10 Hours last year.
Why this car will not win: Haase has yet to win this race and Vanthoor is coming from Daytona. This is another entry that should be putting up a strong fight.

#4 Grove Racing Porsche GT3 R
Drivers: Stephen Grove, Brenton Grove, Benjamin Barker
Why this car could win: These three drivers have won the last two years at Bathurst in Class B for Porsche GT3 Cup cars.
Why this car will not win: This team has moved up to Class A and this is a much tougher class.

#6 Wall Racing Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Adrian Deitz, Tony D'Alberto, Julian Westwood, Camerson McConville
Why this car could win: It will be on the grid is a DJR Team Penske endurance race driver for the three Supercars endurance races with Fabian Coulthard. McConville won the Bathurst 24 Hour in 2002.
Why this car will not win: This is one of the Class A Silver entries.

#7 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Jules Gounon, Maxime Soulet, Jordan Pepper
Why this car could win: Gounon and Pepper have a lot of experience together in the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Series. Soulet has had his success with Bentley. Bentley was on the podium for in 2016 and 2017.
Why this car will not win: In the last two years in the IGTC the best finish for Bentley is sixth.

#8 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Alex Buncombe, Oliver Jarvis, Seb Morris
Why this car could win: Jarvis is coming off a runner-up finish in the 24 Hours of Daytona. Buncombe has experience at Bathurst not only in the 12-hour but as a two-time Bathurst 1000 starter.  Buncombe also has a Blancpain Endurance Series championship to his name. Morris was the 2017 British GT champion in the GT3 class.
Why this car will not win: This is Morris' Bathurst debut and, despite Buncombe's Bathurst experience, he has not been to Bathurst since 2017. Jarvis is flying in from Daytona.

#9 Hallmarc Audi R8 LMS GT3
Drivers: Marc Cini, Dean Fiore, Lee Holdsworth
Why this car could win: Fiore and Holdsworth have plenty of Bathurst experience between this race and the Bathurst 1000. Cini is a regular in this event. These three were 11th in last year's race, third amongst the A-PA class.
Why this car will not win: It is a Class A Pro-Am and there are too many Class A Pro entries in this race for a Pro-Am to sneak through and get the victory.

#12 NED Racing Team Porsche GT3 R
Drivers: David Calvert-Jones, Romain Dumas, Jaxon Evans
Why this car could win: Calvert-Jones has won in Class B in this race and he has stood on the overall podium. Dumas is one of the most versatile drivers in the world. Evans is a Porsche Carrera Cup Australia champion and he was in Porsche SuperCup last year.
Why this car will not win: Like the entry above, this is a Pro-Am squad and though I think this might be the top Pro-Am entry, even with Dumas overall victory is asking a lot.

#18 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: João Paulo de Oliveira, Edoardo Liberati, Alexandre Imperatori
Why this car could win: De Oliveira is a race winner in Super GT and Super Formula. Liberati and Imperatori ran together in Intercontinental GT Challenge last year. Nissan won this race in 2015. This team led 18 laps in last year's race before finishing seventh.
Why this car will not win: Nissan's best finish in IGTC last year was sixth. There are stronger cars in the field.

#22 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS GT3
Drivers: Garth Tander, Christopher Mies, Mirko Bortolotti
Why this car could win: Tander is a three-time Bathurst 1000 winner, he was runner-up last year with Shane van Gisbergen and he won the Bathurst 24 Hour in 2002. Mies has won this race twice. Bortolotti had a lot of success with Lamborghini and in his first two starts with Audi he has look good, finishing third at Daytona in the GTD class.
Why this car will not win: It is hard to argue against this car. Bortolotti is coming from Daytona but Tander and Mies will be ready. Audi won this race two years ago. The one concern is Audi struggled last year. Its best finisher was in ninth and none of the Class A Pro Audis finished the race. Last year's results are going to linger a little bit.

#24 Bostik Australia Audi R8 LMS GT3
Drivers: Tony Bates, Geoff Emery, Max Twigg, Dylan O'Keeffe
Why this car could win: Emery has won three consecutive Australian GT Championships. Twigg was fourth in the Australian GT Championship last year.
Why this car will not win: It is a Class A Silver entry.

#27 HubAuto Corsa Ferrari 488 GT3
Drivers: Marcos Gomes, Tim Slade, Daniel Serra
Why this car could win: Serra has been an ascending driver in sports cars for the last few years and last year he won at Le Mans, Petit Le Mans and picked up his third consecutive Stock Car Brasil championship. Slade knows Mount Panorama and he won the California 8 Hours last year.
Why this car will not win: Gomes is too much of an unknown and this will be Serra's Bathurst debut.

#29 Trofeo Motorsport Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Liam Talbot, Dean Canto, Marcel Zallousa, Grant Denyer
Why this car could win: Canto has 21 Bathurst 1000 starts to go with his Bathurst 1000 experience. Denyer has some Bathurst experience but is an amateur driver.
Why this car will not win: This is a Class A Silver entry.

#30 Honda Racing Team JAS Honda NSX GT3
Drivers: Dane Cameron, Renger van der Zande, Mario Farnbacher
Why this car could win: Cameron is coming off an IMSA Daytona Prototype international championship, van der Zande is coming off his second consecutive 24 Hours of Daytona victory, Farnbacher is coming off an IMSA GT Daytona championship. This is a pretty stout trio for Honda to put together.
Why this car will not win: We have yet to see Honda have any great success in IGTC or what will now be known as the GT World Challenge Europe Series. Not to forget mentioning all three of these drivers are coming over from Daytona and van der Zande is the only one with Bathurst experience with that coming in 2016. This will be the first time the Honda NSX GT3 has entered the Bathurst 12 Hour. We are not sure how this car will handle Mount Panorama.

#34 Walkenhorst Motorsport BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Augusto Farfus, Nicky Catsburg, Chaz Mostert
Why this car could win: Farfus and Mostert are heading to Bathurst fresh off a victory in the 24 Hours of Daytona in the GTD class. Last year, Farfus and Mostert led 68 laps with Martin Tomczyk, the most laps led. Catsburg is coming over fresh off a debut with Corvette at Daytona. Mostest won the Bathurst 1000 in 2014. Walkenhorst Motorsport won the 24 Hours of Spa in 2018.
Why this car will not win: BMW has not won the Bathurst 12 Hours since it became a GT3 race. All three of these drivers are coming from Daytona, two of which are coming off a victory and here is a fun fact: Since adopting GT3 cars in 2011, no Daytona class winner has gone immediately to Bathurst and won the race.

#35 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Josh Burdon, Katsumasa Chiyo, Tsugio Matsuda
Why this car could win: Chiyo won this race in 2015. Matsuda has two Super GT GT500 championships and two Super Formula championships. Burdon and Chiyo were teammates last year in IGTC.
Why this car will not win: The only time Burdon and Chiyo finished in the points last year was sixth at Suzuka.

#46 Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Patrick Assenheimer, Sergey Afanasiev, Michele Beretta
Why this car could win: Black Falcon has a history of winning endurance races and just won the Dubai 24 Hour.
Why this car will not win: It is a Class A Silver entry.

#59 59Racing McLaren 720S GT3
Drivers: Dominic Storey, Fraser Ross, Martin Kodrić
Why this car could win: It is on the grid. Storey is an Australian GT Championship Endurance champion. Kodrić is a GT World Challenge Asia champion and was third in the International GT Open championship last year.
Why this car will not win: It is a Class A Silver entry.

#60 59Racing/EMA Racing McLaren 720S GT3
Drivers: Álvaro Parente, Ben Barnicoat, Tom Blomqvist
Why this car could win: Parente has had a lot of success with McLaren and won this race in 2016. Barnicoat has spent the last two years running an LMP2 car in European Le Mans Series and Asian Le Mans Series. Blomqvist is making his McLaren debut after five years at BMW where he won a Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters race and ran in Formula E.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too inexperienced together. It is a pretty good lineup but this car doesn't feel like a race winner right now.

#62 R-Motorsport Aston Martin Vantage AMR GT3
Drivers: Luco Ghiotto, Marvin Kirchhöfer, Oliver Caldwell
Why this car could win: Ghiotto is the latest successful Formula Two driver to leave the path to Formula One for greater pastures in sports car racing. This is his Bathurst debut after being third in the Formula Two championship last year. Kirchhöfer has been picking up respectable results in ADAC GT Masters and he was runner-up in this ace last year. Caldwell is 17 years old and spent 2019 in the Formula Regional European Championship where he was fifth in the title race with one victory.
Why this car will not win: A little bit too inexperienced to win Bathurst this year.

#63 Orange1 FFF Racing Team Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Andrea Caldarelli, Marco Mapelli, Dennis Lind
Why this car could win: These three drivers had great success in the Blancpain Endurance Series last year with Lind unfortunately missing the finale while Caldarelli and Mapelli won the race to take the championship. Caldarelli and Mapelli also won the Blancpain Sprint Series title as well to sweep the those championships. Caldrelli is coming off a GTD class victory at Daytona and Mapelli was second in class. Mapelli was second in this race in 2015.
Why this car will not win: Caldarelli and Lind are making Bathurst debuts and Mapelli has not been here since 2016. I think this car could be the surprise of the weekend and be competing at the front but it is a tough field and if it just breaking into the top ten that would be a good result.

#75 SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Kenny Habul, Dominik Baumann, Martin Konrad, David Reynolds
Why this car could win: Reynolds is a Bathurst 1000 winner and has made plenty of starts in this race. Habul was second overall in this race in, albeit with a stack list of co-drivers, Jamie Whincup, Tristan Vautier and Raffaele Marciello.
Why this car will not win: This is a Pro-Am lineup and I think this field is too deep for this entry to win.

#76 R-Motorsport Aston Martin Vantage AMR GT3
Drivers: Jake Dennis, Rick Kelly, Scott Dixon
Why this car could win: Dennis was second in this race last year after a fierce battle with Matt Campbell and Dennis did everything he could to win this race. Kelly is a two-time Bathurst 1000 winner and he was runner-up in this race in 2016. Scott Dixon is Scott Dixon and just picked up his third overall victory in the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Why this car will not win: Dixon's inexperience? That sounds crazy but Dixon has never raced at Mount Panorama. I don't think this is going to be a race full of rookie mistakes for Dixon but it is a new car and a new track and Dixon is human racing against a bunch of guys for whom this is their main form of racing. I think this car could win. The 2020 season could be all Scott Dixon with victories at Daytona, Bathurst, Sebring, Indianapolis and with a sixth IndyCar championship to boot but if Dixon is to win this race it is not because he carried the team but because Dennis repeated his 2019 performance, Kelly was smooth and Dixon got ran a respectable pace without making a mistake.

#77 Mercedes-AMG Team Craft-Bamboo Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Maro Engel, Luca Stolz, Yelmer Buurman
Why this car could win: Engel, Buurman and Stolz have shared the same car plenty of times. They were co-drivers in the Blancpain Endurance Series last year and they were champions in 2018. Engel has won the 24 Hours Nürburgring and Buurman has won the Dubai 24 Hour. Engel and Stolz had a great race going last year with Gary Paffett before a water pump issue ended their race.
Why this car will not win: It is hard to come up with a reason. This is a good lineup and nobody would be surprised if this car won. The only negative is Mercedes-AMG has not won at Bathurst since 2013.

#96 Hobson Motorsport Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Brett Hobson, Kurt Kostecki, Jake Kostecki
Why this car could win: I am going to save you some time, it is a Class A Silver entry, it isn't going to win overall.
Why this car will not win: See above.

#159 Garage 59 Aston Martin Vantage AMR GT3
Drivers: Andrew Watson, Olivier Hart, Roman de Angelis
Why this car could win: Watson has had some respectable races at Bathurst. De Angelis is making the step into high-end GT3 racing after Porsche GT3 Cup success in North America.
Why this car will not win: Another silver entry.

#188 Garage 59 Aston Martin Vantage AMR GT3
Drivers: Alexander West, Chris Goodwin, Côme Ledogar, Maxime Martin
Why this car could win: Ledogar was previously a Blancpain Endurance Series champion. West and Goodwin have raced together before in Blancpain GT Series competition. Martin is a DTM race winner and is having a strong season in Aston Martin's WEC program.
Why this car will not win: This is a Pro-Am entry with a heavy emphasis on the Am. Ledogar and Martin do lift this car to a competitive level. This will be Martin's Bathurst debut.

#222 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS GT3
Drivers: Kelvin van der Linde, Mattia Drudi, Markus Winkelhock
Why this car could win: Van der Linde and Winkelhock have more GT3 success than can be listed but van der Linde won the IGTC race at Suzuka last year, van der Linde is the reigning ADAC GT Masters champion, both drivers have won the 24 Hours Nürburgring, van der Linde once and Winkelhock three times and Winkelhock was the 2017 IGTC champion. Drudi spent last year in Porsche SuperCup, ADAC GT Masters and the Blancpain Endurance Series.
Why this car will not win: Drudi is the weakest link in the three Audi Sport Team Valvoline cars. I think that brings this car down and makes an overall victory difficult. 

#777 The Bend Motorsport Park Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Yasser Shahin, Nick Foster, Anton de Pasquale, Sam Shahin
Why this car could win: Foster won the California 8 Hours last year. De Pasquale is coming off a respectable sophomore season in Supercars where he picked up two podium finishes and finished 14th in the championship after being 20th as a rookie.
Why this car will not win: It is a Pro-Am entry and not one of the stronger Pro-Am entries. 

#888 Mercedes-AMG Team Triple Eight Race Engineering
Drivers: Shane van Gisbergen, Jamie Whincup, Maximilian Götz
Why this car could win: It has two of the top Supercars drivers in van Gibsergen and Whincup and both those drivers have won this race before. Add to those two Götz, who was second in the IGTC last year and previously was a Blancpain Sprint Series champion.
Why this car will not win: Götz has had a rough last couple of years. He has only won four races in the last three years, two in ADAC GT Masters, one in Blancpain GT Series Asia and a Blancpain Endurance Series Pro-Am class victory and before that he had not won since 2014. I think this will be  a contender for the victory. Van Gisbergen and Whincup are not going to struggle but there could be one stronger Mercedes-AMG in the way.

#911 Absolute Racing Porsche GT3 R
Drivers: Mathieu Jaminet, Patrick Pilet, Matt Campbell
Why this car could win: Here is one of the winners from last year in Campbell, whose strong 2019 got him a promotion into Porsche's factory GT program. Campbell is special and I do not see him faltering. Pilet is still a strong driver and Jaminet is another Porsche hopeful.
Why this car will not win: Repeating is hard to do for anyone and this is a different team running the lead Porsches at Bathurst. This will be Pilet's Bathurst debut. 

#912 Absolute Racing Porsche GT3 R
Drivers: Dirk Werner, Matteo Cairoli, Thomas Preining
Why this car could win: Werner is another third of the Bathurst-winning combination from last year. Cairoli and Preining have plenty of WEC experience with Cairoli having a few GTE-Am victories to his name.
Why this car will not win: This is the Bathurst debuts for Cairoli and Preining. It just doesn't feel like a Bathurst 12 Hour winning team. 

#999 Mercedes-AMG Team GruppeM Racing
Drivers: Felipe Fraga, Maximilian Buhk, Raffaele Marciello
Why this car could win: Fraga is another rising star in sports car racing. Buhk and Marciello have each won championships in GT World Challenge Europe. Buhk was third in IGTC last year and Marciello was fourth. Marciello did win the 2018 Suzuka 10 Hours.
Why this car will not win: Buhk's one major endurance race victory was the 2013 24 Hours of Spa. It has been a while. This is a good entry but it is not even the best Mercedes-AMG on the entry list.

The Bathurst 12 Hour will begin at 1:45 p.m. ET on Saturday February 1st with it concluding 12 hours later at 1:45 a.m. ET on Sunday February 2nd.