Josef Newgarden won the race and Scott Dixon won the IndyCar championship at St. Petersburg. Lewis Hamilton broke Michael Schumacher's record for grand prix victories in the first Portuguese Grand Prix since 1996. Chris Simmons kept his record for most U.S. F2000 victories. Takaaki Nakagami had his first bad of the season come when he started on pole position. Nobody wants to win the MotoGP championship and now other riders are entering the picture. The NASCAR race from Texas was washed out to 10:00 a.m. ET this morning. However, the IndyCar season is over, and we have some predictions to revisit. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.
2020 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited
How did predictions made last New Year's Eve, long before quarantines, lockdowns and basic livelihood tasks required strict restrictions, survive a pandemic-riddled IndyCar season? The world on December 31, 2019 was a much different place. We had no clue what 2020 had in store. How did any of these pan out?
1. Team Penske does not win either Indianapolis race
Ok... we did not plan for four races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Hence the either, it was one or the other, not one of four.
Ok... we did not plan for four races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Hence the either, it was one or the other, not one of four.
I am saying correct, because the original plan was for two IMS races, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the Indianapolis 500. Scott Dixon won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis driving for Chip Ganassi Racing and Takuma Sato won the Indianapolis 500 driving for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
I am saying correct. Two races were planned and the two originally planned races were not Team Penske victories. We can keep adding races to every racetrack and eventually Team Penske would gt a victory and it would not take long. Three races is more than plenty for Team Penske to get a victory.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Yes. The Harvest Grand Prix was not on the original schedule when the predictions were made. Team Penske of course won the two Harvest Grand Prix races with Josef Newgarden and Will Power. If you count all the IMS races, then this prediction is wrong, but there were not four races when the prediction was made. We aren't counting the Harvest Grand Prix.
2. Alexander Rossi wins at least two races by less than six seconds
Wrong! Rossi won zero races.
2. Alexander Rossi wins at least two races by less than six seconds
Wrong! Rossi won zero races.
This was a trying season for Rossi. His first race at Texas was derailed at the start when he was one of three Hondas that had mechanical issues on the grid, putting him a lap down immediately and in a hole he could never overcome. At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, fuel pressure issues ended his race and he had multiple off-track excursions in the first Road America race.
When things started getting better, his Indianapolis 500 was ruined after a penalty for an unsafe pit exit and his aggression led to an accident. A dreadful Gateway weekend followed, but the season ended on an incredible high-note, four consecutive podium finishes between Mid-Ohio and the Harvest Grand Prix, but none of those were visits to the top step of the podium. Rossi was on the verge of victory at St. Petersburg prior to his accident after barely stepping into the marbles. It was cruel end to a cruel season. He at least could have ended on a high note, instead he ends on a punishing low, similar to where he was when the season started at Texas.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
It did shorten the schedule by three races and it did alter the schedule. Instead of having races at Long Beach, Austin and Belle Isle, there were three races on the IMS road course, two races at Road America, two races at Mid-Ohio and two races at Gateway.
If the IndyCar schedule went to its previously determined length and at all the tracks, maybe Rossi wins two races and each of those races are by less than six seconds. Rossi had plenty of issues this season, so maybe he wouldn't have won in a non-pandemic season.
3. Felix Rosenqvist gets his first career victory in the first half of the season
Correct! It took four races for Rosenqvist to get his first career victory. It came after Rosenqvist chased down Patricio O'Ward in a race where tire degradation played the deciding hand.
3. Felix Rosenqvist gets his first career victory in the first half of the season
Correct! It took four races for Rosenqvist to get his first career victory. It came after Rosenqvist chased down Patricio O'Ward in a race where tire degradation played the deciding hand.
Rosenqvist could have won the season opener at Texas. He had the second-best car to Dixon, but closed in on Dixon over the final laps and made a daring move to compete for the victory in lapped traffic. Though that Texas accident ruined his race, it was clear Rosenqvist had the pace for a possible victory. Similar to Rossi, he had plenty of tough days that did not match his pace. It did work out for Rosenqvist though, as he did get a victory. His sophomore season was not completely a sophomore slump, but it was a slight step back.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Rosenqvist won in the first half of the season and it was a doubleheader at Road America. If the schedule happened as planned, Road America isn't a doubleheader, Road America isn't in the first half of the season, but St. Petersburg and Long Beach both would have been and Rosenqvist was strong at both those tracks last year.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Rosenqvist won in the first half of the season and it was a doubleheader at Road America. If the schedule happened as planned, Road America isn't a doubleheader, Road America isn't in the first half of the season, but St. Petersburg and Long Beach both would have been and Rosenqvist was strong at both those tracks last year.
Maybe, he still wins in the first half, though we can never really know.
4. The difference between Colton Herta's average starting position and average finishing position is less than 3.0
Correct!
4. The difference between Colton Herta's average starting position and average finishing position is less than 3.0
Correct!
Herta averaged a starting position of 6.461 and average a finish of 7.428.
He kept up his qualifying prowess, but he cleaned up the bad days. A lot of those bad days in 2019 were due to mechanical failures, but this year Herta was exquisite. He went from three top five finishes to seven top five finishes and from eight top ten finishes to 11 top ten finishes. Those kind of results will significantly lower an average finish of 13.2
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I am going to say no. Herta was bound to clean up the mistakes and avoid the mechanical gremlins. If he did both those things, he was bound to cut at least three positions off his average finish, regardless of the pandemic.
5. Oliver Askew and Rinus VeeKay are within 2.0 points per race of each other
Wrong!
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I am going to say no. Herta was bound to clean up the mistakes and avoid the mechanical gremlins. If he did both those things, he was bound to cut at least three positions off his average finish, regardless of the pandemic.
5. Oliver Askew and Rinus VeeKay are within 2.0 points per race of each other
Wrong!
VeeKay scored 4.39 points more than Askew per race.
When this prediction was made, Askew was not confirmed to a full-time ride and there was a thought he would only be part-time. He did get a full-time ride and it was going well until his accident at Indianapolis and then he missed two races, which wouldn't hurt him because it was points per race for each driver, but those four races at Gateway and Mid-Ohio saw Askew and VeeKay move in separate directions. Askew was stuck in the back and VeeKay was reeling off top ten finishes.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
No. Askew fell in a rut. The likelihood of Askew having that same accident at Indianapolis and suffering that same injury would be slim, and the season would have been different, but I cannot hold that against VeeKay. Askew may have always found a rough patch in a non-pandemic season. Maybe VeeKay experiences something similar in a non-pandemic season, or perhaps he avoids it like he did and becomes the toast of the series in 2020 either way.
6. Jack Harvey does not meet the goals Mike Shank has set
Correct!
Mike Shank set the goals of top eight in the championship, advance to the second round of qualifying at every road/street course race and have two to three podium finishes.
Harvey only met advancing to the second round of qualifying, but there were only two races where three-round knockout qualifying was held. However, that is fine.
These were high expectations for a single-car team, but Harvey had a strong season all things considered. His qualifying record was strong and in many races he showed encouraging pace. A few cautions fell against him and cost him some good results, most notably at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Gateway, but all things considered, this was a great year for Meyer Shank Racing.
Yes, there were no podium finishes and the team was only 15th in the championship, but eighth was an incredible ask. There are three Penske entries, five Andretti entries and three Ganassi entries. That is 11 entries, all of which were top ten championship contenders. Throw in two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entries and two Arrow McLaren SP entries, that is 15 cars. Harvey mixed it up with those race-winning teams and showed MSR has what it takes to compete in IndyCar. The future is bright for this operation.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I feel like this was expected from MSR, regardless of whether or not the pandemic happened.
7. Graham Rahal does not have a fifth consecutive decline in championship finish
Correct!
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I feel like this was expected from MSR, regardless of whether or not the pandemic happened.
7. Graham Rahal does not have a fifth consecutive decline in championship finish
Correct!
Rahal stopped the slide.
After finishing fourth in 2015, he went on to finish fifth, sixth, eighth and tenth, and in 2020, Rahal ended up sixth.
How did he stop the slide?
One, he got back up to three podium finishes. After two years where he only stood on the podium once in each season. Two, he had five top five finishes, his most since 2017. Three, his average finish was better than his previous two seasons. From 2015 to 2017, his average finish was below nine. The two years after that it was over 11. This year was more in the middle at 9.714 and things got better.
How did he stop the slide?
One, he got back up to three podium finishes. After two years where he only stood on the podium once in each season. Two, he had five top five finishes, his most since 2017. Three, his average finish was better than his previous two seasons. From 2015 to 2017, his average finish was below nine. The two years after that it was over 11. This year was more in the middle at 9.714 and things got better.
Rahal benefitted from race winners not being more successful. Sato won the Indianapolis 500, but he had two top five finishes and had four finishes outside the top fifteen. Pagenaud won at Iowa, but only had four top five finishes and had five finishes outside the top fifteen. Rosenqvist won at Road America, but he had only one other top five finish all season.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Slightly. He did match his finish in the Mid-Ohio doubleheader and Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader. If those races were at other tracks, the results could have been different and his championship finish could have been worse, but this felt like a typical Rahal season, and I don't think he would have dropped from sixth in the championship to seventh if Long Beach happens instead of a second Mid-Ohio race or if Richmond happens and Iowa only had one race. This was a solid year from Rahal, but, frustratingly, not quite great.
8. Santino Ferrucci finishes outside the top eight in oval points
Correct!
Slightly. He did match his finish in the Mid-Ohio doubleheader and Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader. If those races were at other tracks, the results could have been different and his championship finish could have been worse, but this felt like a typical Rahal season, and I don't think he would have dropped from sixth in the championship to seventh if Long Beach happens instead of a second Mid-Ohio race or if Richmond happens and Iowa only had one race. This was a solid year from Rahal, but, frustratingly, not quite great.
8. Santino Ferrucci finishes outside the top eight in oval points
Correct!
After ending up fourth in oval points in 2019, Ferrucci dropped to tenth in oval points.
It is partly because the likes of Takuma Sato and Patricio O'Ward had oval seasons that were better than expected. Colton Herta decreased his number of poor oval races, which he couldn't escape in 2019. Jack Harvey was stout for his first full year on ovals.
Ferrucci also had his first bad day on an oval. He had to retire from the Texas race after a botched pit stop. He had another outstanding Indianapolis 500, finishing fourth, but that double points race could not make up for four finishes outside the top ten and his next best oval finish being tenth at Gateway.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Not really. There was one more oval race than originally planned and Richmond did not happen. I am not sure one fewer oval race and running a race at Richmond would have been the difference in Ferrucci being in the top eight or not. Even if you dropped the worst oval result for each driver, he would still have been tenth.
9. Richmond has somewhere between 400-600 passes
Richmond did not happen. We will never know how many passes a Richmond race would have had and it will be some time until we find out.
Not really. There was one more oval race than originally planned and Richmond did not happen. I am not sure one fewer oval race and running a race at Richmond would have been the difference in Ferrucci being in the top eight or not. Even if you dropped the worst oval result for each driver, he would still have been tenth.
9. Richmond has somewhere between 400-600 passes
Richmond did not happen. We will never know how many passes a Richmond race would have had and it will be some time until we find out.
Richmond was cancelled this year. It was not included in next year's calendar. Maybe there is hope for 2022, but let's not get our spirits up.
10. There are at least nine different race winners
Wrong!
10. There are at least nine different race winners
Wrong!
There were only seven winners in 2020 and six were repeat winners from 2019: Dixon, Newgarden, Herta, Power, Sato and Pagenaud. The only change was Rosenqvist for Rossi.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
There were three fewer races, so that was three fewer chances at winner number eight and winner number nine. Would we get two different winners in three races? Those odds are slightly low, but Rossi, Rahal, O'Ward and Ryan Hunter-Reay were among those without a victory. It would have been possible and not entirely unthinkable.
11. Marcus Ericsson finishes ahead of the second AMSP driver in the championship
Correct!
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
There were three fewer races, so that was three fewer chances at winner number eight and winner number nine. Would we get two different winners in three races? Those odds are slightly low, but Rossi, Rahal, O'Ward and Ryan Hunter-Reay were among those without a victory. It would have been possible and not entirely unthinkable.
11. Marcus Ericsson finishes ahead of the second AMSP driver in the championship
Correct!
Though, Ericsson did get aided with Oliver Askew missing the Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader. Ericsson ended up 12th and Askew finished 19th.
This was a sneaky good year for Ericsson in his sophomore run. His nine top ten finishes were behind only Dixon, Newgarden, Herta and O'Ward, the top four in the championship and he was tied with Rahal on nine top ten finishes. That means he had more top ten finishes than Rossi, Indianapolis 500 winner Sato, two-time race winner Power, Hunter-Reay, Pagenaud, and most importantly, his own teammate Rosenqvist, who had only five top ten finishes.
Rosenqvist topped Ericsson in the championship by 15 points. Even if the Indianapolis 500 had been single points, Rosenqvist and Ericsson would have still been 11th and 12th, but only two points would have separated the Swedes.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Possibly. Askew did have a good start to the season, but I think his championship finish in this case was more due to his concussion-like symptoms. The tracks would have been different. Askew had never been to Long Beach and Belle Isle. The edge could have been always been in Ericsson's favor.
12. There will not be one race that starts on one day and ends on another
Correct!
Possibly. Askew did have a good start to the season, but I think his championship finish in this case was more due to his concussion-like symptoms. The tracks would have been different. Askew had never been to Long Beach and Belle Isle. The edge could have been always been in Ericsson's favor.
12. There will not be one race that starts on one day and ends on another
Correct!
Though plenty of races were moved around. St. Petersburg went from March to October. One Indianapolis race went from May to July and the famous one went from May to August. Mid-Ohio was set to go in early August and a week before its scheduled date it was postponed, eventually falling in the middle of September.
But none bridged from a Saturday to a Sunday or a Sunday to a Monday, or in the case of 2020, started on a Friday and finished on a Saturday.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Nope. But weather did cooperate.
Dropping the Richmond prediction, I went eight for 11, which is pretty good. I am not going to be upset with the ones that were incorrect. Strange year. Perfection would only make it stranger.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Josef Newgarden, Scott Dixon and Lewis Hamilton but did you know...
Sting Ray Robb and Hunter McElrea split the Indy Pro 2000 races from St. Petersburg. Kiko Porto and Christian Brooks split the U.S. F2000 races, the first career victories for both drivers.
Franco Morbidelli won MotoGP's Teruel Grand Prix, his second victory of the season. Sam Lows won the Moto2 race, his third consecutive victory and he has taken the championship lead. Jame Masiá won the Moto3 race, his second consecutive victory.
The #98 ROWE Racing Porsche of Nick Tandy, Laurens Vanthoor and Earl Bamber won the 24 Hours of Spa.
Harrison Burton won the Grand National Series race from Texas, his third victory of the season. Sheldon Creed won the Truck race, his fourth victory of the season.
The #23 NISMO Nissan of Tsugio Matsuda and Ronnie Quintarelli won the Super GT race from Suzuka, his second victory of the season. The #21 Audi Sport Team Hitotsuyama Audi of Shintaro Kawabata and Tsubasa Kondo won in GT300.
Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One returns to Imola for the first time in 14 years.
NASCAR has its penultimate round of 2020 at Martinsville.
IMSA has its penultimate round of 2020 at Laguna Seca.
Portimão remains busy with the European Le Mans Series season finale.
Aragón remains busy with the World Touring Car Cup for its penultimate round of 2020.
