Monday, October 19, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Should the IndyCar Finale Have Remained Double Points?

We had one of the best Petit Le Mans on record. Hindsight says Alexander Rossi should have stayed in the #7 Acura over Ricky Taylor. Nobody wants to win the MotoGP championship. Four different riders led the Moto2 championship during that race from Aragón. The World Superbike championship ended as planned, though Portugal's increased lockdown measures is making people worried ahead of Formula One's return to the country. Clean air won again in NASCAR and it was cold. The Supercars season concluded with the Bathurst 1000 and a popular winner. The IndyCar season finale is upon us and that is where we will start our week. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Should the IndyCar Finale Have Remained Double Points?
There have been many revisions, cancellations, postponements, adjustments, amendments, expansions and truncations to get the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season in and now we are staring down the finale, one month later than scheduled at an event originally intended as the season opener. 

Five events became doubleheaders. Many race weekends were shortened to two days. We had a new qualifying format for the doubleheaders on ovals. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course hosted three races. The 2020 season did have three fewer races than originally planned but reaching the finish line feels like a significant achievement and also pure survival. 

Back in March, we weren't sure if any races would happen. We were preparing for the first year without an Indianapolis 500 in 75 years. This year could have been much worse, and yet, we have made it and the championship will be decided in late October on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico instead on the final day of summer in Monterey with the Pacific Ocean in the distance. 

One of the many changes for this season was IndyCar deciding the season finale would not be a double points race. The finale had been worth double points since 2014, when Fontana was the finale and the triple crown races, the 500-mile races at Indianapolis, Pocono and Fontana were all double points that season. Sonoma became the season finale in 2015, Pocono and Fontana each became regular point-paying events, while Indianapolis remained double points and Sonoma became a double points race. 

Double points races have divided the fan base. Many see it as an unnecessary gimmick. Others understand Indianapolis being double points because of its length and prestige (and IndyCar fans will give the Indianapolis 500 a pass for anything). Some are ok with Indianapolis and the finale being double points race because the series can make up the rules, these are established rules, the drivers and teams know the rules and that is fair. There are no surprises. This is all laid out before the start of a season. Everyone is competing with the same rulebook.

I can live with it either way. Did it hurt IndyCar when every race was worth the same? No. Are double points for two races, including the finale, a travesty? No. A driver can still clinch the championship a race early, it just requires double the points. Think of it as a driver needing to win by two to clinch a title early. It is still possible; it just requires a little more work.

During the lockdown, IndyCar decided this year's finale would not be a double points race, and that was a smart decision because we didn't know where the finale would be or when it would be or if it would happen as scheduled. When IndyCar made the decision on March 30, we had four races postponed and there was a chance Long Beach could be rescheduled, though that had plenty of hurdles to clear and we were still suspect of Portland and Laguna Seca happening. After being at St. Petersburg only to have the event called off on the Friday of race weekend, we all knew there would be a chance we could get through the penultimate race and then have the finale cancelled days before the event was to take place and it would not be rescheduled. 

With uncertainty over when the finale would take place and what would be considered the finale, IndyCar had to do what was best for the sanity of the series. It could not afford to announce double points for a finale, only for the finale to be cancelled. That is a difficult position. If the finale was cancelled, you couldn't retroactively make the penultimate race a double points race. If there was a retroactive adjustment to the championship and there was a change at who was first, people would be furious that a champion was not decided on the racetrack. At the time, removing double points for the finale was the right thing to do. 

However, we have now reached the end of the season. IndyCar has contested 13 races. All signs point to St. Petersburg happening. There was no reason IndyCar had to decide right then in there on March 30 whether or not the finale was double points. There were plenty of decisions made during the season that affected the championship. IndyCar created an entirely new qualifying format for the oval doubleheader events during the season. With the increase in road course doubleheader events, there was an extra point available in each of those qualifying session because in the road course doubleheader events the fastest driver in each qualifying group gets a point. Instead of having only two extra points for the Belle Isle races, there were an additional four points available because of there being three road course doubleheaders. 

IndyCar didn't have to commit to double points for the finale immediately, but if the series wasn't going to do it for the finale, it shouldn't have done it for the Indianapolis 500 either. There should have been a balance to this season and every event should have been worth the same. The Indianapolis 500 results now weigh more heavily over the championship picture than if there was at least one more double points race. One more double points race doesn't necessarily even it out, but an argument can be made that it would be fairer. 

In the current situation, Scott Dixon holds a 32-point lead over Josef Newgarden heading into St. Petersburg race. All Dixon has to do to clinch the championship is finish ninth or better. If St. Petersburg had been worth double points, Dixon would have a smaller window to guarantee his championship. With double points, Dixon would have to finish third or better to clinch the championship. 

While you might think Dixon's margin of error shrinking for a top-nine finish to a top-three is unfair and it would diminish what has otherwise been a dominant series for the Ganassi driver, it actually wouldn't. If the Indianapolis 500 had been treated like the 13 other races on the 2020 calendar, which means 50 points for a victory, at many as three bonus points for leading lap, and no additional qualifying points, only one point for pole position, Dixon would be heading to St. Petersburg with a 15-point lead over Newgarden, meaning the only way Dixon could guarantee taking home the championship was with a second-place finish. 

It ends up working out that double points in the finale would balance the scales this year and effectively make the championship picture almost identical to if there were no double points races at all.  

Single points across the board would still mean it would only be a two-horse race, but Will Power would be third and Colton Herta would be fourth entering the finale. Takuma Sato would be tenth, not seventh in the championship, behind Simon Pagenaud, Alexander Rossi and Felix Rosenqvist. Marcus Ericsson would three spots higher in 12th, Rinus VeeKay and Jack Harvey would flip with VeeKay in 13th and Harvey in 14th and Santino Ferrucci would be three spots lower in 15th. 

Double points wouldn't have changed that much this year nor have double points done that much in the six previous seasons double. All double points have allowed this year is for Dixon to have a larger cushion and the top finishers in the Indianapolis 500 are gifted a few extra spots in the championship while those who struggled in that one race are a few spots lower. 

Since IndyCar adopted it, double points have never really produced a championship result that did not fit what actually happened on track. A few drivers have gotten some lucky breaks and ended up a few spots better in the championship. There were a few extra drivers with a shot at the championship entering a final race, but it allowed for a circumstance whereas many as six drivers were alive in a finale. Scott Dixon might have gotten an extra championship out of it in 2015, but Dixon did win the most races that season in a year where no driver was head and shoulders above the rest. 

IndyCar history has not tremendously shifted because of these double points races and specifically double points finales. Everything that has happened fits what has happened on track. It passes the eye test. We haven't had any odd champions that feel hollow. The double points races have not overshadowed the rest of a season. A driver still needs to be strong over 17 races. One great result in a double points race does not completely make up for a dozen average or poor results. 

I am for fewer points being awarded in races, but double points are not the worst thing to happen to IndyCar. If IndyCar had decided to keep double points for this year's finale, it would have been fine and after looking over it, it would have hardly changed anything heading into the finale. It would have still been Dixon vs. Newgarden. The only difference is how much breathing room Dixon is playing with.

Champions From the Weekend
Jonathan Rea clinched his sixth consecutive World Superbike championship with a fourth-place finish in race one from Estoril.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jonathan Rea's championship, but did you know...

Shane van Gisbergen and Garth Tander won the Bathurst 1000. It was van Gisbergen fourth victory of the season and his first Bathurst 1000 victory. It is Tander's forth Bathurst 1000 victory. Tander is the 12th driver to reach four Bathurst 1000 victories.

The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Cadillac of Renger van der Zande, Ryan Briscoe and Scott Dixon won Petit Le Mans, the team's second victory of the season. The #8 Tower Motorsport by Starworks Oreca-Nissan of John Farano, Mikel Jensen and Job van Uitert won in the LMP2 class. The #911 Porsche of Nick Tandy, Frédéric Makowiecki won in the GTLM class. The #63 Scuderia Corsa Ferrari of Alessandro Balzan, Cooper MacNiel and Jeff Westphal won in the GTD class.

Álex Rins won MotoGP's Aragón Grand Prix, his first victory of the season. Sam Lowes won the Moto2 race, his second consecutive victory and Lowes took the championship lead with this victory. Jaume Masiá won the Moto3 race, his first victory of the season.

Toprak Razgatlioglu won the first World Superbike races from Estoril with Chaz Davies taking the third race. Andrea Locatelli and Lucas Mahias split the World Supersport races. Locatelli ended his championship season with 12 victories from 15 races. 

Joey Logano won the NASCAR Cup race from Kansas, his third victory of the season. Chase Briscoe won the Grand National Series race, his ninth victory of the season. Brett Moffitt won the Truck race, his first victory of the season.

René Rast swept the DTM races from Zolder for the second consecutive weekend and he has six victories this season.

Nick Cassidy won the Super Formula race from Sportsland SUGO.

Esteban Guerrieri won the bookend WTCC races from Hungaroring with Yann Ehrlacher winning the middle race.

Coming Up This Weekend
The IndyCar finale at St. Petersburg with the Road to Indy series.
Formula One makes its first visit to Portimão for the first Portuguese Grand Prix since 1996.
MotoGP remains in Aragón for the Teurel Grand Prix.
There will be the 24 Hours of Spa and it will be 24 hours despite falling on the end of Daylight Savings in Europe.
NASCAR heads to Texas.
Super GT makes its second trip to Suzuka this season.