Nico Hülkenberg is now a reserve driver at Aston Martin. Mother Nature had a great weekend at Martinsville. Martin Truex, Jr. became the first repeat winner of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. cried. Rick Ware Racing has intra-team turmoil. Formula E had some damp conditions in Rome. Marc Márquez has announced he will be back in competition at Portimão. IndyCar tested at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in-between raindrops. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.
Unanswerable Questions for Each IndyCar Team
The IndyCar season is upon us and after another lengthy and extended offseason, we have a fun season ahead of us on paper.
IndyCar will be on track for three consecutive weekends. After one weekend off, festivities will begin at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, first with the Grand Prix of Indianapolis before the Indianapolis 500 and in seven weeks we will be six of 17 races into the season.
With all the movement going around in IndyCar, there are many questions to ponder at the start of the season, but some we cannot answer. Each team has at least one and we will go over those questions for each team.
We will start with a new name on the grid.
Dale Coyne Racing: What if Romain Grosjean starts extraordinary?
Grosjean joins the IndyCar grid, but he has only committed to the 13 road and street course races in the #51 Dallara-Honda while Pietro Fittipaldi has been tapped for the oval races. Grosjean has hinted he could run Gateway later in the season, but that would be his only oval race if he runs any oval races in 2021.
However, I had a dream last week Grosjean won pole position at Barber and then went on to lead every lap and win the season opener. Testing doesn't suggest Grosjean is going to walk in and thrash the series, but what if it were to happen? What if Grosjean were to start the season with a victory and three top five finishes in the first three races? He would likely be leading the championship in that case and would only be scheduled to run one of the next four races.
Missing three or four races will hamper any championship hopes and if Grosjean gets off to a good start, it would be difficult to take himself out of the discussion. Thirteen races could be enough to win a championship, especially if Grosjean is flawless, but that is a tall task. He is bound to have a few tough races.
I think the ship has sailed on Grosjean running Texas or Indianapolis. If he opens with three victories in the first three races, he isn't going to be at Texas, which is crazy if you think about it, and it is probably too late to put together an Indianapolis program, but I wouldn't rule Indianapolis entirely out since 0.0001% is still a chance.
Andretti Autosport: What if the entire team is slow out of the gates again?
Andretti Autosport had a disaster of a start to 2020. Only Colton Herta was competitive. The other four drivers were constantly stubbing their toes. Alexander Rossi was out of the championship fight before it had even started. If there was any team stunted because of the pandemic-delayed season in 2020, it was Andretti Autosport.
Technically, 2021 has been another pandemic-delayed season. If everything had gone as planned, we would be two races in and heading to Long Beach this weekend, but this delay is not as severe as last year. Teams have been able to test and prepare. There are no excuses for Andretti Autosport this year. It has decreased the team down to four cars. Herta, Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay return while James Hinchcliffe is back as a full-time competitor. The experience is there.
This team cannot afford another slow start. Hunter-Reay's DHL sponsorship has just renewed, but who knows how long that will go on for. Rossi's sponsorship is split with NAPA Auto Parts and AutoNation. Hinchcliffe has an entirely new sponsor. Gainbridge renewed, but with Herta sliding into that seat it expects to be winning races after three underwhelming years. Andretti Autosport won one race last year. That isn't good enough and if it has three drivers languishing through the first four race weekends it will be hard to improve on that number, especially to a significant level where Andretti Autosport believes it should be.
Arrow McLaren SP: What if the entire team takes a slide backward?
Patricio O'Ward was fourth in the championship last year and for the second-consecutive year it has changed up its driver lineup with Felix Rosenqvist joining the organization in place of Oliver Askew.
The team's split with Askew was not pretty and it had an equally as bad breakup with Hinchcliffe and Marcus Ericsson at the end of 2019. Hinchcliffe hadn't done poorly when he lost his ride. There was room for improvement, but it was a questionable call. Askew's exit left a sour taste after he stepped out of the car due to concussion-like symptoms he was experiencing after his Indianapolis 500 accident.
AMSP has a quick trigger if things are not going right. There is more room for O'Ward to go backward than forward. He has been quick in testing, one of the best in fact this offseason, but how will the team handle it if O'Ward is eighth in the championship? Eighth is still respectable in IndyCar. Rosenqvist did not have a great year last year. He won a race, but he was not as good as his rookie campaign. I cannot imagine it will drop O'Ward if the results are not up to his 2020 standard, but this team has already made odd decisions in its first year-plus of this partnership. No one can be surprised if a driver loses a ride if progress is not made.
Ed Carpenter Racing: When does Ed Carpenter decide to run two drivers full-time?
This will be the eighth season Carpenter has split the #20 Chevrolet with another driver taking the road and street courses while Carpenter runs the ovals.
Outside of the first year, the split program has not paid off. Carpenter's results have been erratic. The road/street course driver is all over the place and rarely in contention for victory. The sample size is large enough to suggest this is not working out. Conor Daly could not even pick up a top ten finish last year in that car and Daly is a veteran. Daly is back for a second consecutive season in the #20 for road and street courses, but would the results be better if Daly was the only driver in that car?
The #21 Chevrolet has been up and down since Josef Newgarden left. Rinus VeeKay had a good rookie season, but it could be better if he had one teammate to work with at all the races. I don't know if ECR wants to run three cars at the oval races, but we are down to four oval races at three weekends. Carpenter is 40 years old. He is approaching Indianapolis 500-only age. I know he wants to keep racing, but he has been running five to six races a year for nearly a decade and he hasn't won since 2014. He might be better off focusing on Indianapolis only and the team might be better off with two drivers going for the championship.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing: What happens if Takuma Sato decides this is his final year?
There is no sign of Sato retiring anytime soon, but we are on the back nine of his career.
Sato is 44 years old. He has been in IndyCar for over a decade. He was primarily living in Tokyo before the pandemic began. I have to imagine the last year has been difficult for him and his family as travel was disrupted. After everything that has happened, Sato could be looking for a more settled life and decide he wants to return home and stay for good. He has had an amazing life and career. No one would blame if he is ready for the next part of his life. Sato has won his fair share of races and two Indianapolis 500s. He could walk away tomorrow and no one would fault him.
If Sato leaves, it does put RLLR in an odd position. Historically, whatever team has fielded Sato has gotten Honda engines for free. That would be a significant change for the team. Does Honda have a Japanese driver in waiting that it wants to be its next IndyCar hero? From Kosuke Matsuura to Hideki Mutoh to Sato, Honda has always made sure to have a Japanese driver on the grid. Would that driver take over at RLLR? Would RLLR want to move on? Sato leaving would mix things up. I don't see it happening this year, but Sato's final race in IndyCar will be here sooner than we realize and we have to prepare for that day.
A.J. Foyt Racing: Will the team blame Sébastien Bourdais for its problems?
The answer is no. Bourdais will not be the fall guy, but we have seen Foyt try many different driver lineups and none of them have worked.
It tried Sato. It tried Sato and Jack Hawksworth off of Hawksworth's strong rookie season. It tried Carlos Muñoz and Conor Daly. It tired Tony Kanaan and Matheus Leist after Leist had an encouraging Indy Lights season. It tried Charlie Kimball with Kanaan, Bourdais and Dalton Kellett splitting a car.
Bourdais will now be full-time and Kellett will be full-time. Bourdais has lifted almost every program he has joined. That is bound to not work out. Bourdais can only do so much. Kellett is not going to raise this team to higher levels. All the weight falls on the Frenchman. My hope is Bourdais has more than one year to figure things out and the team doesn't lose hope, which it tends to do quickly.
Meyer Shank Racing: What if Jack Harvey really turns some heads this year?
Harvey has shown quite some pace in his IndyCar career. Last year, he was one of the top qualifiers. He has had some strong top ten runs. He has not quite been able to have that breakthrough with a victory. He came close in the 2018 Grand Prix of Indianapolis and ended up third, but that remains his only podium finish and his only top five finish.
If he keeps up his qualifying pace in 2021 and finishes around where he starts nine times out of ten, he will be a top ten championship driver and could even sneak into the top five. If he does that, he will not be staying at MSR for long. Someone will poach him. Mike Shank is a great car owner and a smart man, but if Harvey has a career year, the likes of Roger Penske or Chip Ganassi could come calling. How will Shank keep Harvey in the fold?
I also think we need to look at where would Harvey possibly go. Penske and Ganassi are two seats you have to take, but would he really leave MSR for Andretti Autosport if he is a top ten driver with MSR? Coyne would arguably be a step back. Foyt is a step back. Carlin isn't established enough. RLLR could be worth it. I would stay away from AMSP. Harvey might like his surroundings and might choose to stay put no matter how well he does or who is calling.
Carlin: What could another driver do with this team on the road courses?
Max Chilton has stuck to the road and street courses since the middle of 2019, but he will make a cameo at Indianapolis.
While Chilton has moved on from majority of the ovals, we have seen some drivers look impressive for Carlin on ovals. Conor Daly won a pole position and was a frequent top ten finishers filling in the #59 Chevrolet on ovals. Charlie Kimball had some good results on ovals. The results have not followed with Chilton on the road and street courses.
Chilton has had good qualifying runs, but he has not turned it into a top ten finish over the previous two seasons. Outside of Kimball, Carlin has only had Chilton as a full-time driver. Chilton isn't getting the results on the road and street courses. Other drivers are getting results on ovals. Could it be Chilton is holding the team back? Would the team be better with Kimball or J.R. Hildebrand or Spencer Pigot full-time? Only one way to find out, but I don't expect that change to come any time soon.
Team Penske: Who is on the hottest seat?
Allegedly, Will Power and Simon Pagenaud are both in contract years. While Josef Newgarden won his second championship in 2019 and was 11 points shy of successfully defending his championship in 2020, he has yet to win the Indianapolis 500. Scott McLaughlin moves over to IndyCar after a dominant Supercars career in Australia, but he has expanded this team to four cars, not long after it had downsized to three cars.
McLaughlin's foray into IndyCar reminds me of when Team Penske entered Supercars in partnership with Dick Johnson Racing and Penske brought Marcos Ambrose back to Australia. It sounded great but Ambrose ran Adelaide, stepped out of the car full-time, took the endurance driver role and called it a career after only seven starts in 2015.
All signs point to McLaughlin being respectable, possibly challenging for top results, and he is ready to be in IndyCar for the next few years. He has completely transplanted his life to the United States. I don't expect him to be heading back to Australia come August. The only thing I could see happening is if things are rough in IndyCar, McLaughlin could transition to NASCAR next year, but that is only if things are rough. Penske will have an open seat in the NASCAR Xfinity Series after all as Austin Cindric will move up to Cup in 2021. I believe Team Penske is invested in McLaughlin for the next few years.
It would be crazy to think either Power or Pagenaud will be let go after this season, but Penske will pull the trigger on a driver a year early rather than a year late.
Chip Ganassi Racing: What if Jimmie Johnson is really bad?
I don't think Johnson is going to be really bad, but the main focus of the NBC Sports promotions ahead of Barber is Barber will be Johnson's IndyCar debut. It is a big story but there is a chance Johnson is going to be running between 16th and 22nd and people are not going to tune in to every IndyCar race to watch Johnson run at the tail end of the lead lap.
Johnson had a rough final three seasons in NASCAR and while this is admittedly a challenge there has to be part of him that is going to be tired running at the very back, seconds off the pace and not close to even being a top ten car. Could there be a breaking point if after five or six races Johnson has had enough? Johnson has taken on a sports car program in the IMSA endurance races and through two rounds he has been very happy with that. The team was second at Daytona and third on the road at Sebring but demoted for a drive-time violation. He could position himself for a full-time IMSA program and with the new regulations coming with LMDh, Johnson could make a run at Le Mans.
His leash is longer in sports cars than IndyCar. He could get a sense after five or six races whether or not he can make much more progress in an IndyCar. He could get his fill and move on. Johnson technically has a two-year deal. I don't think he is going to quit if it gets tough, but you can never say never. If it happens, then Carvana better like Tony Kanaan as its spokesman.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Martin Truex, Jr., but did you know...
Josh Berry won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Martinsville, his first career victory.
The #14 TGR Team Eneos Rookie Toyota of Kazuya Oshima and Kenta Yamashita won the Super GT season opener from Okayama. The #56 Kondō Racing Nissan of João Paulo de Oliveira and Kiyoto Fujinami won in GT300.
Jean-Éric Vergne and Stoffel Vandoorne split the Formula E races from Rome.
Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from Atlanta.
Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar opens its season at Barber Motorsports Park.
Formula One will be at Imola.
MotoGP heads to Portimão.
NASCAR remains in Virginia but heads up to Richmond.
Supercars will now be in Symmons Plains after a week delay.
Supercross has races on Tuesday and Saturday from Atlanta.
Baracelona hosts the European Le Mans Series season opener.
Monza hosts the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup season opener.
