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| IndyCar begins May with a doubleheader in Texas |
The third and fourth rounds of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season take place at Texas Motor Speedway for the first of two doubleheaders this season. This is the second time Texas has hosted a doubleheader, as it hosted a pair of 275-mile races in 2011. This weekend will be different from a decade ago. Instead of having both races in one night, there will be a 300-mile race on Saturday night with a 375-mile race closing out the weekend on Sunday evening. Qualifying times will also set both grids, unlike a draw for position in race two in 2011. After opening the 2020 season, this is the second year Texas is the first oval race of the season. There will be three new drivers on the grid as Tony Kanaan, Pietro Fittipaldi and Ed Carpenter will all make their season debuts.
Coverage
Time: Coverage for the first Texas race begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday May 1 with green flag scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Coverage for the second Texas race begins at 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday May 2 with green flag scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Kelli Stavast will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
Time: Coverage for the first Texas race begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday May 1 with green flag scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Coverage for the second Texas race begins at 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday May 2 with green flag scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Kelli Stavast will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
Saturday:
Practice: 12:30 p.m. ET (90 minutes)*
Qualifying: 4:00 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have live coverage)
Race: 7:30 p.m. ET (212 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 5:30 p.m. ET (248 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 5:30 p.m. ET (248 laps)
* - Practice will be available live on Peacock.
Another Doubleheader
Last year, there were two doubleheaders held on ovals, as Iowa and Gateway each hosted two races. Like last year's doubleheaders, there will be one qualifying session with the first qualifying lap setting the grid for race one and the second qualifying lap setting the grid for race two. With there being one qualifying run to set each race, the overarching concern is having two identical races. Was that the case in 2020?
When it came to qualifying, no driver swept the pole position at either race weekend, but the pole-sitters each started in the top five for both races that weekend. Conor Daly took pole position for the first Iowa race with Carlin but fell to third for race two. Josef Newgarden took pole position for the second race after ending up second for race one. At Gateway, Will Power matched Daly's Iowa qualifying performance, taking pole position for race one before ending up third for race two. Takuma Sato was fifth for the first Gateway race and then took pole position for race two.
At Iowa, four drivers started in the top five for both races, Daly, Newgarden, Power and Colton Herta. Ryan Hunter-Reay went from 12th to fourth while Alexander Rossi went from fifth to 21st. At Gateway, only three drivers started in the top five for each race, Power, Sato and Patricio O'Ward. Scott Dixon went from third to sixth and Marcus Ericsson went from fourth to seventh. While the Ganassi drivers dropped, Newgarden went from sixth to second and Jack Harvey jumped from seventh to fifth.
There was far more fluctuation in the grid positions in Iowa. Rossi dropped 16 spots from his first race starting position while Sato dropped 14 spots from sixth to 20th. Álex Palou was the biggest improvement going from 18th for race one to seventh for race two. Five other drivers improved by multiple positions with Hunter-Reay gaining eight, Charlie Kimball made up four, Marco Andretti and Jack Harvey each made up three and Ed Carpenter made up two spots. Seven drivers lost multiple positions (Rossi -16, Sato -14, Santino Ferrucci -5, O'Ward -4, Rosenqvist -2, VeeKay -2, Daly -2).
The biggest improvement at Gateway was Zach Veach, who made up six spots, but he went from 23rd to 17th. Overall, nine drivers made up multiple positions from race one to race two at Gateway, five of which were gains of at least four positions (Veach +6, Pagenaud +5, Ferrucci +4, Sato +4, Newgarden +4). The biggest drop at Gateway was five spots with Carpenter going from 17th to 22nd. Hunter-Reay and VeeKay were the only other drivers to drop at least four positions.
Between the two race weekends, only three drivers started in the same position for both races. One of those was Simon Pagenaud, who was unable to make a qualifying run at Iowa due to a fuel pressure issue and that forced the Frenchman to start 23rd for both races. Veach was 22nd in each Iowa race and Herta qualified tenth for both Gateway races.
At Iowa, seven drivers were in the top ten of both races. Three of those drivers were in the top five of both races. Pagenaud and Newgarden split the victories with Newgarden fifth in race one and Pagenaud fourth in race two. Dixon was second and fifth at Iowa. Oliver Askew was third and sixth in the two races. Marcus Ericsson was ninth in both races, the only driver to finish in the same position for both races.
Power overcame his accident in the first Iowa race for a second-place finish in race two, a 19-spot gain. The only other drivers to pick up more than five spots were Marco Andretti (22nd to tenth), Graham Rahal (12th to third) and Tony Kanaan (18th to 11th). Six drivers lost at least five spots. Sato was the biggest drop from tenth to 21st. O'Ward saw an eight-spot decline from fourth to 12th after a botched pit stop and the Mexican likely would have finished in the top five had it not been for that error. Ed Carpenter went from 15th to 23rd and Ryan Hunter-Reay went from 16th to 22nd. Ferrucci dropped from 13th to 18th. Daly was the third driver to lost at least five spots from each race and dropped out of the top ten, as he went from eighth to 13th.
At Gateway, ten drivers made up multiple positions and ten drivers lost multiple positions between the two races. However, like Iowa, seven drivers were in the top ten of both races. Unlike Iowa, only two drivers were in the top five of each race. O'Ward was third and second and Dixon was first and fifth.
Ericsson was fifth in race one, but a loose rear wing forced him to pit lane late and he lost 18 spots between races. The only other driver to lose at least ten positions was Kanaan going from ninth to 19th. Two other drivers lost at least five positions. Sato went from second to ninth after brushing the wall late in the second race and Kimball dropped from 13th to 18th.
Like Iowa, Power was the biggest mover again. After ending up 17th in the first Gateway race, Power was third in the second race. Newgarden went from 12th to first at Gateway, the only other driver to make up double-digit positions. Two drivers made up eight spots, Rossi and Andretti, but both drivers were caught in the opening lap incident and the bottom two finishers from race one.
While looking at the good, it is time to consider the bad. Five drivers were outside the top fifteen in both Iowa races. Power and Andretti were the only drivers to go from outside the top fifteen to inside the top ten. Gateway saw similar results. Four drivers were outside the top fifteen in both Gateway races. Only two drivers finished inside the top ten in race two after finishing outside the top fifteen in the first race, the aforementioned Power, and Ferrucci went from 16th to tenth.
The numbers look similar in both doubleheaders, but we did not see identical races. The first Iowa race had one caution for 26 laps, but that was really two cautions as Herta and VeeKay got together on a waved off restart following Power's incident. The cautions played heavily into the strategies and it cycled a few faces to the front. It allowed the three podium finishers to come from 23rd, 17th and 14th on the grid while the remaining top ten finishers all started in the top ten. In race two, there were two cautions for 24 laps, but Newgarden and Power started 1-2 and finished 1-2 respectively, but five of the top ten finishers started outside the top fifteen and six of the top ten finishers started outside the top ten.
On top of the opening lap incident, Gateway had a brief spat of rain in the first race to distinguish it from the second. The first race had two cautions for 25 laps. The first 12 laps were under yellow for the accident and then 13 laps were under yellow just after halfway for weather. The second race had the same number of cautions, two, but 20 fewer caution laps. The first lap was under yellow for a waved off start and then the race proceeded with 196 consecutive green flag laps before Sato brushed the wall exiting turn two with four laps to go. The final three circuits were all run behind the pace car after Sato's contact.
Iowa had 645 passes and 203 for position in the first race, while the second race had 458 passes and 205 for position. The first Gateway race had 125 passes, 65 for position, but it should be noted four drivers were out after three laps, meaning few opportunities for passes to be made. The second Gateway race saw a slight uptick in total passes to 167 and passes for position went up to 105.
A Different Texas?
Last year's Texas race was constrained to 30-lap stints due to tire concerns. On top of the stint limit, track staining from the PJ1 traction compound used for the NASCAR race made the upper grove slippery, as that part of the surface had about 20% less grip than the bottom line.
Texas has tried to fix the problem, washing away the PJ1 substance to allow for better racing, however at a preseason test session, drivers were expressing the same concerns over the lack of grip.
The races this weekend will not require the same 30-lap stint limit on tires, meaning the field will be able to run to an empty tank if they wish. The 2018 and 2019 races were setting up to be who could conserve fuel and make it in three stops or who could run hard, expecting the tires to fall off and charge on four stops. Cautions erased the differing strategies in 2018 and the tires never really feel off in 2019, allowing the three-stoppers to come out on top.
With the first race only 212 laps, it should be a straight-forward three-stop race, however, the extra 36 laps in race two could open multiple possible strategies and we could see teams split into two different game plans.
The 200-lap race last year had 364 passes, 180 for position. The 2019 race, which was 48 laps longer, had 579 passes, 200 for position. A 24% longer race produced 59% more passes, but only an 11% increase in passes for position. The 2018 race had 688 passes and 242 passes for position.
Scott Dixon's victory last year was the first time a top five starter had won at Texas since 2014 and it was the first time a front row starter won at Texas since Dario Franchitti won the first race of the 2011 doubleheader. Three of the last six Texas winners have started seventh.
Opening Oval
Texas is the first oval of the season and for the better part of the last decade the opening oval has been the Indianapolis 500. What does the opening oval tell us about the rest of the season?
Dixon's victory last year was the first time the winner of the first oval race of the season went on to win the championship since when Dixon won the 2008 season opener at Homestead. Since reunification, the winner of the first oval race has finished in the top five of the championship eight times and in the top ten in 11 of 13 seasons. The two exceptions are Dan Wheldon in 2011, who was part time and only ran two races that counted toward the championship, and Tony Kanaan in 2013.
Seven of the 13 champions since 2008 were in the top five at the first oval race with nine of finishing in the top ten. Of the four champions that finished outside the top ten in the first oval race, two finished outside the top fifteen. Dario Franchitti was 18th at Kansas in 2009 and went on to win the championship. Ryan Hunter-Reay was 27th in the 2012 Indianapolis 500 but still took the title.
However, the last seven champions were in the top ten in the first oval race of the season, five of which had a top five finish.
It should be noted the last three Texas winners have gone on to win the championship. Dixon won at Texas in 2018 and 2020 while Newgarden won in 2019. Since Texas went down to one race weekend in 2005, only three other times has a Texas winner gone on to win the championship, Dixon in 2008 and 2015, and Franchitti after winning the first race in 2011.
When Texas had two race weekends from 1998 to 2004, there were three other occasions of the champion having won at Texas. Sam Hornish, Jr. won the 2001 IRL season finale at Texas, but he had clinched the title a race early. Hornish would win the 2002 Texas season finale in a title fight that went to the final lap with Hélio Castroneves. Tony Kanaan won the June 2004 race on his way to his only championship.
Who Needs a Good Weekend?
It is early in the championship, but drivers need results, and a slow start does not make for a strong title push. There are five notable names outside the top fifteen in the championship that need to make up ground this weekend.
Alexander Rossi opened 2021 with a ninth at Barber, but his tire puncture from contact with Graham Rahal ended what could have been a top five day in St. Petersburg. Instead of climbing spots in the championship, Rossi dropped to 16th on 31 points. The Californian had consecutive podium finishes at Texas before last year's race when an electrical issue on the grid forced him to serve a drive-through penalty and a subsequent pit lane speeding penalty put him two laps down. He would end up a lap down in 15th. Rossi has finished outside the top ten in his last three oval starts and he has not had a top five finish on an oval since his runner-up result to Newgarden at Texas in 2019.
Conor Daly has a pair of 16th-place finishes from the first two races and Daly will move over to the #59 Gallagher Chevrolet for Carlin at Texas, a similar arrangement he had last year with the team. Carlin has also had a rocky start as Max Chilton was 20th at Barber and a hydraulics issue took Chilton out of St. Petersburg after 18 laps. Daly had four top ten finishes in five starts with Carlin last year. His best result was sixth at Texas. It is also Carlin's best result on an oval.
Felix Rosenqvist drove a quiet race at St. Petersburg and ended up 12th, but after a 21st-place finish at Barber and his teammate Patricio O'Ward thoroughly displaying a quicker pace through two rounds, Rosenqvist is 18 points and seven spots behind his Mexican teammate in the championship. Last year, Rosenqvist drove up from ninth to second at Texas. He was challenging Dixon in the closing laps for the victory before an ambitious move to the outside of the lapped car of James Hinchcliffe put the Swede on the slick, PJ1 tarnish lane, sending Rosenqvist into the turn two wall. The good news for Rosenqvist is he was in the top ten at both Gateway races last year, his first top ten finishes on ovals.
Ryan Hunter-Reay finds himself in a precarious situation. For only the third time in his career, Hunter-Reay has opened a season with consecutive finishes outside the top ten. The last time that happened was 2011 when he did not get a top ten result until the seventh race of the season, a ninth in the second Texas race. Hunter-Reay has three consecutive top ten finishes at Texas, and he led a race-high 90 laps in 2019. Hunter-Reay has not won on an oval since Pocono 2015, and he hasn't had a podium finish on an oval since Iowa 2017.
Fast Facts
The last time an IndyCar race was scheduled for May 1 was São Paulo in 2011, however, a rainstorm forced that race to finish on May 2. Will Power took the victory.
Saturday's race will be the sixth IndyCar race scheduled to take place on May 1. The last one to start and finish on that day was Kansas 2010 where Scott Dixon took victory.
Sunday's race will be the third IndyCar race scheduled for May 2. The last one to start and finish on that day was at Nazareth in 1999 where Juan Pablo Montoya took victory. The only race to take place on May 2 was at Trenton in 1976, where Johnny Rutherford took victory.
The average starting position for a Texas winner is 5.1875 with a median position of third.
The pole-sitter has not won at Texas since 2010 with Ryan Briscoe.
Four Texas races have been won from outside a top ten starting position. Justin Wilson's victory from 17th in 2012 is the worst starting position for a Texas winner.
Three drivers have scored their first career victory at Texas: Billy Boat, Mark Dismore and Jeff Ward. It is the only IndyCar victory for all three drivers.
Team Penske leads with ten Texas victories. Chip Ganassi Racing has six Texas victories. Panther Racing has five Texas victories ahead of Kelley Racing on four victories. Those are the only four teams with multiple Texas victories.
A.J. Foyt Racing won the second Texas race in June 1998. Andretti Autosport has not won at Texas since June 2004. Wilson's victory is Dale Coyne Racing's only oval victory. Ed Carpenter won with his own team in 2014. Graham Rahal won the 2016 race by 0.0080 seconds over James Hinchcliffe to give Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing its first Texas victory.
The average number of lead changes in a Texas race is 13.8125 with a median of 13.5.
Last year's race was the tenth to have fewer than ten lead changes. The fewest lead changes in a Texas race were four in 2013.
The average number of cautions in a Texas race is 4.375 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 34.40625 with a median of 31.5.
The second race of the 2011 doubleheader is the only caution-free Texas race.
The most cautions in a Texas race were nine in 2017, a race where IndyCar threw two competition cautions late in the race over concerns with the tires. The most caution laps in a Texas race were 78 in the October 1999 race.
Possible Milestones:
If Scott Dixon wins this race, he will become the first driver in IndyCar history to win a race in 19 different seasons.
Will Power is one victory away from becoming the fifth driver to win 40 IndyCar races. Power would also break a tie with Al Unser for fifth all-time in IndyCar victories.
Scott Dixon needs to lead 58 laps to become the fifth driver to reach the 6,000 laps led milestone.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 43 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Josef Newgarden needs to lead one lap to become the 23rd driver to reach the 2,500 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 51 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon continue their stretch of Texas dominance and split the weekend. We will not see a handful of Hondas fail to start on the grid. Alexander Rossi will be the top Andretti Autosport finisher in at least one of the races. Scott McLaughlin will pick up his first top ten finish in IndyCar. At least 15 drivers get a top ten finish this weekend. Rinus VeeKay will complete more than 100 laps in each race and not have an accident. Conor Daly will finish ahead of VeeKay in both races. Sébastien Bourdais will get A.J. Foyt Racing its first top five finish at Texas since June 2002. At least one race is delayed either due to weather or due to weepers. At least three drivers will fall out of the top ten of the championship after this weekend. Takuma Sato will not have an accident in qualifying. Sleepers: Ryan Hunter-Reay and Tony Kanaan.
