Monday, June 14, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: Play the Game

Marcus Ericsson and Patricio O'Ward each got to take a dip in the fountain at Belle Isle. Saturday was rather delayed. Chip Ganassi Racing's sports car dominance could soon be returning. Chip Ganassi had a a great weekend across the board. Romain Grosjean is going to run Gateway. IndyCar is trying to fill a gap. People are mad about everything. BMW has committed to an LMDh program. Glickenhaus made its Hypercar debut. Extreme E will not be going to Brazil and Argentina and now it has to find replacements for 40% of its calendar. Superstar Racing Experience had its first race. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Play the Game
The lack of an American driver on the Formula One grid has been a recurring theme over the first half of 2021. 

Between Haas F1 taking Nikita Mazepin as one of its drivers, Colton Herta's success in IndyCar and a stark rise in Formula One's American television ratings, thanks in part due to the success of Netflix's Drive to Survive series, there is a renewed interest in long, on-going American absence in Formula One. 

There are plenty of suitable drivers out there. From Herta to Alexander Rossi to Josef Newgarden, there are Americans succeeding at the highest level of open-wheel racing in North America. All three raced in the European ladder system. Rossi made it to Formula One and he was runner-up in the GP2 championship behind only Stoffel Vandoorne. Newgarden raced in GP3 and Herta was Lando Norris' teammate six years ago in what is now British Formula 4. Norris won the title while Herta was third. 

Despite talent and respect earned from others around the globe, IndyCar drivers are out of the Formula One loop, and that is the biggest reason Herta, Rossi and Newgarden are not going to end up moving up to the world championship. 

If a driver wants to make it to Formula One, he or she has to commit to the European leader system. Formula One teams are not going to waste their time scouring the world looking for qualified drivers. Over the last 20 years, the FIA has simplified its global pathway to Formula One and it has led us to the current forms of Formula Two and Formula Three. For the most part, Formula 4 series take place on a national level, there are a handful of regional Formula Three championships, that are labeled as Formula Regional and the national and regional series funnel into the international series. 

If you are in that bubble, then a Formula One team might look at you. There is no incentive for them to look elsewhere, and there are plenty of drivers willing to play along. Once in a team as a development driver or a reserve drive, the team is going to keep that driver in the system. When drivers have been farmed out to other series, it has been in cases where drivers have maxed on the junior series and yet Formula One teams did not have a spot for them in the top series. See Stoffel Vandoorne and Pierre Gasly being sent to Japan's Super Formula and Esteban Ocon being placed in Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters.

A driver has to play the game to make it to Formula One. If you have the money, you might be able to get away without playing, but for 99.999% of the drivers, even the Nikita Mazepin's of the world, they have to play the game. It doesn't matter where you are from.

American drivers are not subject to special treatment. It doesn't matter that they are winning races in IndyCar and going 240 mph into turn one at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. At some point, if they want to be in Formula One, they must step into the Formula One world, different from their comfort zone, and accept they might fail. Copping out and saying American drivers do not get enough attention is not an excuse.

As for future American hopefuls, we should not be focusing our attention on those succeeding in IndyCar, but those playing the game and there are multiple in the ring. 

Formula Three has four American drivers, five if you include Miami-born Enzo Fittipaldi. Logan Sargeant was third in the Formula Three championship last year. Sargeant led the championship entering last season's finale at Mugello before a pair of two brutal races knocked him out of the fight. Juan Manuel Correa is making his comeback after serious leg injuries suffered in a Formula Two accident two years ago at Spa-Francorchamps. 

Jak Crawford and Kaylen Frederick are both rookies in Formula Three this season, and both Crawford and Frederick started in the Road to Indy. At 14 years old, Crawford ran 13 races in U.S. F2000 in 2019 and was seventh in the championship despite missing two races. In 2020, he joined the Red Bull junior program, moved to Europe and ran the ADAC Formula 4 and Italian Formula 4 Series. He was runner-up in the ADAC Formula 4 championship and sixth in the Italian championship after missing two rounds. 

Frederick just turned 19 years old, but he spent two full seasons in U.S. F2000 in 2017 and 2018. He was fourth and sixth in the championship respectively. In 2019, he moved to BRDC British Formula Three. In year one, he won two races and was ninth in the championship. In year two, Frederick won the BRDC British Formula Three championship with nine race victories.

One other driver that should be mentioned is Cameron Das. Das leads the Euroformula Open Championship with four victories through six races and he has been on the podium of every race. Crawford is also competing in Euroformula Open and he is second in that championship. 

These are the five drivers where American Formula One fan's hopes should lie, and none of them are going to make it to Formula One next season. If any of them are immaculate, they could be there in two seasons, but don't hold your breath. Formula One requires brilliance, and even though there are four Americans in Formula Three, the odds are still against any of them making it. 

Crawford is a Red Bull junior driver, but the other three have no affiliation to any Formula One team. Though an advantageous position, Crawford is no shoe-in at Red Bull. Red Bull is known for having a congested junior system. The likes of António Félix da Costa and Filipe Albuquerque never got a shot at Formula One despite significant junior series success as Red Bull drivers. Red Bull isn't going to promote Crawford if Crawford is only good. He must be exceptional.

These drivers have to win at every level of the ladder system to make it. Even winning might not be enough, but it is at least something to hang your hat on.

The only way to get around the game is a $25 million check. Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi and Josef Newgarden could be on the grid for the upcoming French Grand Prix if they dropped that check on a team's desk. That amount of money doesn't exist for those drivers so they will be heading to Road America instead. But the IndyCar contingent is happy in IndyCar. They are firmly in their comfort zone and competing for race victories. None of them desire just being on the Formula One grid and having to spend two or three seasons battling in a Williams or Haas just to hopefully get the attention of a larger team. And Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull are not going to hire anyone straight out of IndyCar. 

Patricio O'Ward might be the exception to the rule, as O'Ward will have a Formula One test later this year with McLaren, but we should stress O'Ward is the exception to the rule. It is only a test. McLaren has a solid driver lineup with Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo. I am not sure what O'Ward would have to do to break into McLaren's F1 lineup, but one great test and a possible IndyCar championship probably is not enough.

American's next Formula One driver will not be someone we know and has a national presence. It will likely be an unknown, a current teenager that does not have a deep career racing in the United States. Alexander Rossi fit that criteria. Sargeant, Correa, Crawford, Frederick and Das are the American hopefuls, like it or not. They are playing the game. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Marcus Ericsson and Patricio O'Ward, but did you know. 

The #01 Chip Ganassi Racing Cadillac of Renger van der Zande and Kevin Magnussen won the IMSA race from Belle Isle. The #23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Ross Gunn and Roman De Angelis won in the GTD class after the #39 CarBahn Motorsports with Peregine Racing Audi was disqualified for a re-fueling infraction. The #4 Corvette of Tommy Milner and Nick Tandy won the GTLM non-championship race.

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Kazuki Nakajima and Brendon Hartley won the 8 Hours of Portimão. The #38 Jota Oreca-Gibson of Roberto González, Anthony Davidson and António Félix da Costa won in LMP2. The #51 AF Corse Ferrari of Alessandro Pier Guidi and James Calado won in GTE-Pro. The #47 Cetilar Racing Ferrari of Roberto Lacrote, Giorgio Sernagiotto and Antonio Fuoco won in GTE-Am.
 
Michael Ruben Rinaldi won the first World Superbike race and the Superpole race from Misano. Toprak Razgatlioglu won the second race on Sunday. Dominique Aegerter swept the World Supersport races.

Doug Coby won the inaugural Superstar Racing Experience race from Stafford Motor Speedway.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR All-Star Race from Texas, his second all-star race victory. Kyle Busch won the Grand National Series race, his 99th career victory in the series. John Hunter Nemechek won the Truck race, his fourth victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar starts summer at Road America. 
Formula One starts a three-week stretch of races with the French Grand Prix.
MotoGP returns to Germany and the Sachsenring. 
Formula E will make its debut at the circuit in Puebla, Mexico. 
NASCAR has its first Cup race at Nashville Superspeedway and first race weekend at the track since 2011.
The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters season opens at Monza.
Supercars will try to race in Darwin.
GT World Challenge Europe gives Zandvoort's new banked final corner its first proper test.
Super Formula reaches the midway points of its season at Sportsland SUGO. 
SRX has its first dirt race from Knoxville.