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| A new championship leader takes IndyCar into Road America |
The ninth round of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season brings the series to Road America. IndyCar got its first repeat winner of the season at Belle Isle but there have still been seven different winners, four of which were first-time winners. Only two of the seven winners from the 2020 season have won a race through the first half of 2021. Five different teams have won a race this season, including a first-time winner. The Road America grid will feature 25 drivers, 19 of which have not won this season and 11 of those 19 are looking for their first IndyCar victory. Two of those drivers will be making his IndyCar debut, one from a NASCAR background and a second-generation driver fresh into his second career after exiting Formula One.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at noon ET on Sunday June 20 with green flag scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Kevin Lee and Townsend Bell will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Dave Burns will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
Time: Coverage begins at noon ET on Sunday June 20 with green flag scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Kevin Lee and Townsend Bell will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Dave Burns will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 5:00 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Saturday:
Second Practice: 11:00 a.m ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 2:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have taped coverage at midnight ET)*
Final Practice: 5:30 p.m. ET (30 minutes)*
Sunday:
Race: 12:40 p.m. ET (55 laps)
* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock.
Sunday:
Race: 12:40 p.m. ET (55 laps)
* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock.
O'Ward vs. Palou
Eight races are complete in the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season and two drivers have had nearly identical seasons. Patricio O'Ward and Álex Palou lead the way with only one point separating the top two drivers in the championships.
How similar are the two?
They are first and second in average finish this season, O'Ward leading at 6.25 with Palou at 6.5. Both drivers have four podium finishes with O'Ward leading in victories with two to Palou's one. O'Ward has six top five finishes from eight races with Palou on five. The two drivers are tied with six top ten finishes.
Palou led a lap in the first six races of the season and the Spaniard still ranks third in laps led. O'Ward has led in five of eight races including the last three races. Palou has led 30 more laps than the Mexican driver. They are nearly identical in average starting position as well. Palou holds the edge at 8.667 with O'Ward averaging ninth on the grid.
Both drivers are looking for their first championship, but both are also only in their second full seasons in IndyCar. Neither driver has been in this battle before and there are plenty of races left for tides to swing. But how do these two drivers compare to other recent past champions?
Since reunification, nine of 13 champions were ranked first or second in the championship through eight races. Through eight races, 12 of 13 champions had at least one victory, seven champions had at least four podium finishes, nine champions had at least five top five finishes and ten champions had at least six top ten finishes.
Eight champions since reunification have average a finish better than seventh after eight races with the lowest average finish coming last year when Scott Dixon averaged 3.125 from the first eight races. Dixon's four victories last season were also the most through eight races since 2008.
Only one champion since reunification was outside the top five in the championship after eight races. Scott Dixon was seventh after eight races in 2013. Dixon was also winless, had one podium finish, four top five finishes, four top ten finishes and his average finish was 10.125 that season. Other than his number of top five finishes, these are the worst totals through eight races for champions since reunification. The one thing that makes 2013 an outlier is it was the longest season since reunification at 19 races. Dixon went on to win four of the final 11 races with five podium finishes, six top five finishes and his average finish was 6.72.
Is the 2021 IndyCar championship a two-horse race with at least eight races remaining? Probably not.
Palou went from championship leader, 37 points ahead of O'Ward entering the Belle Isle doubleheader to second in the championship, one point back. That is a 38-point swing in two races. Dixon remains 36 points back and the top six drivers are within 56 points. Ninety-seven points cover the top nine drivers.
With at least eight races remaining, 432 points are left on the table. If a replacement is found for the cancelled Toronto round, that total would increase to 486 points. O'Ward and Palou have done everything right through eight races, but there are plenty of opportunities for others to make a run at the Astor Cup.
Unprecedented Territory for Ganassi
It is not often Chip Ganassi Racing gets to make history, but the organization did just that at Belle Isle.
Marcus Ericsson's victory in race one from Belle Isle gave Ganassi three victories on the season, but it was also the first time Ganassi has had three different drivers win in a season. All three race winners are in the top ten of the championship. Palou leads the way in second with Scott Dixon in third, 36 points off O'Ward and Ericsson's victory has the Swede seventh in the championship, 88 points back.
In an unfamiliar position, Dixon is not the team leader heading into summer. He is still in the top three of the championship, and despite dropping a spot in the championship after seventh was his best finish at Belle Isle, Dixon did not lose any ground to the championship leader. The only difference is he now trails O'Ward instead of his teammate Palou.
Ericsson's Belle Isle weekend has lifted him to seventh in the championship. The Swede's victory was his fifth top five finish in 38 IndyCar starts. One of his top five finishes was a fourth in the second Road America race. Last year, Ericsson's left Road America sixth in the championship, his best championship position since joining IndyCar.
Dixon has not had a podium finish since his victory at Texas five races ago. He has not gone six races without a podium finish since 2016 when he went from Barber to Road America without one. Dixon opened that 2016 season with two podium finishes in his first three races, but then did not get another podium finish until the tenth race of the season at Iowa. That was Dixon's worst season in the last 15 years, as Dixon went on to finish sixth in the championship.
Ganassi swept the Road America races last year and the organization has won three of the six Road America races since the track returned to the schedule in 2016. Though the team swept the races last year, these were not dominant victories. Josef Newgarden had a healthy lead in the first race before Jack Harvey brought out the caution for an accident. A botched pit stop dropped Newgarden from the lead and set up Will Power in first with Dixon in second. Dixon took the lead on that restart and held firm on the two restarts that followed, leading the final 16 laps.
Felix Rosenqvist had to fight from behind last year but using a strategy that put himself on the primary tires for the final stint, the Swede was able to chase down Patricio O'Ward, who had led 43 of 55 laps. O'Ward had taken the alternate tire for the final stint and lost the lead on the penultimate lap. Rosenqvist had overcome an eight-second gap in the final 15 laps of the race to take his first career IndyCar victory.
Andretti's Dearth of Success
It has been a painful season for Andretti Autosport.
While Colton Herta has a victory and was competitive at Belle Isle, Herta is Andretti's best driver in the championship in ninth. Alexander Rossi does not have a top five finish this season. Ryan Hunter-Reay's best finish is tenth and James Hinchcliffe's best finish is 14th.
Santino Ferrucci and Hélio Castroneves are both ahead of Hinchcliffe in the championship despite combining for four starts while Hinchcliffe has started all eight races this season.
Herta does have three top five finishes, but he has finished outside the top ten in his other five starts. Rossi has four top ten finishes, but each time Rossi has finished in the top ten he has been the top Andretti finisher and the only top ten finisher for the team. Hunter-Reay has started outside the top fifteen in five of eight races this season. If it wasn't for Herta's fourth-place finish in the second Belle Isle race, the team would be heading to Road America on a four-race drought without a top five finish.
Rossi has not won in two years, going back to a dominant victory at Road America where he was 28.43 seconds clear of Will Power and led 54 of 55 laps. While Rossi won that race, his three Andretti teammates finished outside the top ten. Last year, between the two Road America races and five Andretti entries, the team had four top five finishes but six finishes outside the top fifteen.
Rossi did finish third in the second race last year while Herta was fifth on both days. Hunter-Reay was fourth in race one last year and was in a good fight for the final podium spot with Palou.
Andretti Autosport has combined to lead 116 laps this season and Herta is responsible for 110 of those laps; 97 of 110 of those laps were in Herta's St. Petersburg victory. The team has had multiple top ten finishers in only one race, the second Texas race when Herta was fifth and Hunter-Reay was tenth. The second Belle Isle race was the first time this season Andretti Autosport had all four cars finish in the top fifteen. Andretti has not had multiple cars start in the top five this season.
Hello Team Penske
Halfway through the IndyCar season and Team Penske is without a victory. A Penske driver has been runner-up in five of eight races this season.
Josef Newgarden is responsible for three of those five runner-up finishes and Newgarden is the top Penske driver in the championship in fourth. The two-time champion finds himself 51 points off the top spot.
Simon Pagenaud does not have a runner-up finish, but Pagenaud has been on the podium twice, with finishes of third at St. Petersburg and the Indianapolis 500. He is tied for fifth in the championship with Rinus VeeKay on 243 points, but VeeKay holds the tiebreaker based on the Dutchman's Grand Prix of Indianapolis victory.
Will Power might have been the closest Penske driver to victory this season. Power was leading when the red flag came out with five laps to go in the first Belle Isle race. He would lose the lead and nay shot at a respectable finish when his car would not restart when the race returned to yellow flag conditions.
A dip in form has Scott McLaughlin 12th in the championship on 164 points, but McLaughlin is only five points behind Power. While McLaughlin is averaging a tenth-place finish on ovals, his average finish on road and street courses is 14.4. His lone top ten finish on a road course was eighth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
This is the first time Team Penske has not won one of the first eight races of a season since 1999 when the team was in the middle of two winless seasons to close the 1990s. Penske has won two of the last six Road America races. Newgarden has an average finish of 6.2 at Road America and he has five top ten finishes in his six starts. Power won IndyCar's return race in 2016 and he has three podium finishes. He has started no worse than eighth in the last six Road America races and Power is still looking for his first pole position of the season. Pagenaud's results have been mixed. His best Road America finish since 2016 is fourth and he has finished outside the top ten in three of six races. He has started 14th or worse in the last four Road America races.
The Shuffle
Road America will see some different faces on the grid this weekend, as a few injuries have forced changes.
Oliver Askew will substitute for Rinus VeeKay in the #21 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet at Road America after VeeKay broke his collarbone in a cycling accident on Monday. VeeKay underwent surgery, but he was not medically cleared to compete this weekend.
VeeKay is fifth in the championship, 56 points off the championship leader O'Ward. On top of his Grand Prix of Indianapolis victory, he was second in the first Belle Isle race, and he has six top ten finishes through eight races. He is one of seven drivers with at least six top ten finishes this season.
Askew will be back for his second race of the season and his second fill-in role of the season. Askew stepped into the #7 Arrow McLaren SP Chevrolet for the second Belle Isle race after Felix Rosenqvist was not cleared to compete after Rosenqvist's turn six accident in race one. Askew qualified 23rd and had to drop out of the race after 46 laps due to an engine issue. He was classified in 25th, the last-place finisher.
In seven road/street course starts, Askew's best finish is 15th, which happened twice last season, first in the first Road America race and then in the second Mid-Ohio race. For all of Askew's Road to Indy success, he never won at the 4.048-mile track and his best finish was third, one of which was in U.S. F2000 and one in Indy Lights.
Coincidentally, Askew and VeeKay raced with each other entirely up the Road to Indy system. Askew won the 2017 U.S. F2000 championship by seven points over VeeKay. Askew drove for Cape Motorsports while VeeKay drove for Pabst Racing Services. In Pro Mazda the following year, VeeKay had a better start to the season and he won the championship with Juncos Racing, 109 points ahead of Askew in third. Askew switched to Andretti Autosport for Indy Lights and the American took that 2019 championship by 21 points over the Dutchman.
In the 48 Road to Indy races Askew and VeeKay competed in, the two drivers combined for 31 victories with VeeKay having the edge 16 to 15, but Askew won more in U.S. F2000 (seven to three) and Indy Lights (seven to six). VeeKay did have more breathing room in podium finishes with 36 to Askew's 31.
Felix Rosenqvist has not been cleared to return to the #7 AMSP Chevrolet, and with Askew moving to Ed Carpenter Racing the team has been forced to call in a different driver to deputize for the Rosenqvist.
Kevin Magnussen will make his IndyCar debut in place of Rosenqvist. Magnussen is driving for Chip Ganassi Racing in IMSA's Daytona Prototype international class and the Dane is coming off his first career victory last week at Belle Isle with co-driver Renger van der Zande in the #01 Cadillac. This is Magnussen's first season in IMSA after leaving Formula One where he made 119 starts for McLaren, Renault and Haas.
This is a homecoming of sorts for Magnussen. His first 19 Formula One starts came with McLaren in 2014 and he finished second on debut in the Australian Grand Prix. His father Jan made 11 starts between two seasons in IndyCar. One of those starts was at Road America in 1996 driving for Hogan Penske Racing. Unfortunately, Jan Magnussen's race lasted all of three corners when he went off course with broken right front suspension after contact at the start.
Magnussen's victory last week in IMSA was his first since October 20, 2013 when he won at Barcelona in the Formula Renault 3.5 Series. His father Jan won two American Le Mans Series races at Road America, both n the GTS/GT1 class. The first was in 2003 driving a Prodrive Ferrari 550-GTS Maranello with David Brabham. The other was in 2008 driving the #3 Corvette with Johnny O'Connell.
On top of Askew and Magnussen, Cody Ware will make his IndyCar debut in the #52 Honda for Dale Coyne Racing. Ware has made 39 NASCAR Cup Series starts, including 16 this year. He has made 27 starts in NASCAR Grand National Series and seven Truck Series starts. Ware also has LMP2 Am class victories in the Asian Le Mans Series. Last year, Ware picked up his best career finish in NASCAR's Grand National Series when he was seventh in NASCAR Grand National Series at the Charlotte roval. Despite his NASCAR experience, Ware has never made a start at Road America.
Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series are back on the undercard for Road America.
The Indy Lights championship has tightened up after Belle Isle.
Linus Lundqvist took the championship lead with runner-up finishes in both Belle Isle races and four points cover the top three. David Malukas fell to second, one point behind Lundqvist. Kyle Kirkwood swept the Belle Isle races and he is now four points behind Lundqvist. These three drivers have combined to win all eight races this season.
While the top three breakaway, Toby Sowery is settling into fourth in the championship as Sowery has finished four consecutive top four finishes, but he is 45 points off Lundqvist. Devlin DeFrancesco moved into the top five in the championship after Alex Peroni retired from the second Belle Isle due to an accident.
Danial Frost his not had a top five finish in the last four races and Benjamin Pedersen still had not had a top five result since the season opener. Robert Megennis has dropped to ninth in the championship with Sting Ray Robb rounding out the top ten.
Indy Lights will race at 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday June 19 and at 9:50 a.m. ET on Sunday June 20.
With victories in four of the last five races, Christian Rasmussen holds a 13-point championship lead over Braden Eves in Indy Pro 2000. Rasmussen swept the U.S. F2000 races at Road America last year. Eves won at Road America in U.S. F2000 in 2019. Rasmussen has six podium finishes in eight races while Eves has five podium finishes. Reece Gold is third in the championship, also on five podium finishes, but Gold has yet to score a victory despite having started on pole position in the last four consecutive races.
Artem Petrov sits fourth in the championship, 48 points behind Rasmussen. Hunter McElrea rounds out the top five on 151 points. Manuel Sulaimán was third at Indianapolis Raceway Park last time out and he is 90 points back. Jacob Abel sits in seventh, 103 points behind Rasmussen.
Indy Pro 2000 opens its weekend at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday June 19 with race two scheduled for 10:55 a.m. ET on Sunday June 20.
Yuven Sundaramoorthy returns home to Wisconsin as the U.S. F2000 championship leader with 177 points. Sundaramoorthy leads U.S. F2000 with three victories and he has a seven-point lead over Kiko Porto in the championship. Christian Brooks is the only other driver with multiple victories and he is 13 points back in third. Michael d'Orlando won his first U.S. F2000 race at Indianapolis Raceway Park and he is tied with Brooks for third in the championship.
Josh Pierson rounds out the top five in the championship, 19 points back, but Pierson is still looking for his first victory. Prescott Campbell got off the snide at IRP with his runner-up finish and he is 37 points behind Sundaramoorthy. Josh Green and Spike Kohlbecker are tied on 112 points.
Thomas Nepveu has 98 points in ninth, while Jace Denmark's third place finish at IRP has him tenth in the championship on 89 points.
Race one for U.S. F2000 will be at 12:15 p.m. ET on Saturday June 19. Race two is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday June 20.
Fast Facts
This will be the eighth IndyCar race to take place on June 20 and first since Tony Kanaan won at Iowa in 2010. It was Kanaan's final victory with Andretti Autosport.
Sébastien Bourdais won on June 20, 2004 at Portland.
This will be the first race of summer. Last year, Scott Dixon became the first driver to win the first race of summer and go on to win the championship since Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012.
Since reunification, the only other driver to win the first race of summer and the championship was Dario Franchitti in 2009.
Eight drivers have had their first IndyCar victory come at Road America (Héctor Rebaque 1982, Uncle Jacques Villeneuve 1985, Jacques Villeneuve 1994, Dario Franchitti 1998, Christian Fittipaldi 1999, Bruno Junqueira 2001, Alex Tagliani 2004 and Felix Rosenqvist 2020 race two).
There have been four first-time winners through the first eight races in 2021. The last season with at least five first-time winners was the 2002 Indy Racing League season when Jeff Ward, Airton Daré, Alex Barron, Tomas Scheckter and Felipe Giaffone were the first-time winners.
The average starting position for a Road America winner is 3.806 with a median of third.
Last year, the two Road America races were won from ninth and seventh. Prior to last year six consecutive Road America races had been won from inside the top five. Only five of the first 29 Road America races had been won from outside the top five.
Only one Road America race has been won from outside the top ten. Alex Tagliani won from 13th in 2004.
The average number of lead changes in a Road America race is 4.0967 with a median of four.
The second race last year had eight lead changes, the fourth most all-time for a Road America race.
The most lead changes were 11 in 1983.
Only three Road America races did not feature a lead change (1987, 1993, 2003).
Since IndyCar returned to the circuit in 2016, every race has featured at least two lead changes and three of the six races have had five lead changes or more.
The average number of cautions in a Road America race is 2.0667 with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 6.4667 with a median of 4.5.
Two of the last four Road America races went caution-free. Eleven of 29 Road America races have been caution-free.
Only two Road America races have featured only one caution. Seven Road America races have featured exactly two cautions.
Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon is one victory away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time with 52 victories.
Scott Dixon is one podium finish away from his 125th podium finish.
Will Power is one victory away from the 40-victory milestone.
Alexander Rossi is one podium finish away from his 25th podium finish.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 43 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 46 laps to reach the 500 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Josef Newgarden makes up for last year and gets his first victory of the season. Newgarden will also end this race on the primary tire. Alexander Rossi gets his first top five finish of the season, but he will be the only Andretti Autosport driver in the top ten. Patricio O'Ward extends his championship lead over second. Scott Dixon is back to being the top Ganassi finisher. Kevin Magnussen finishing position will be at least five spots better than his first practice result. Jack Harvey will not be involved in any accidents. Will Power will not be mad at race control. There will be at least one car in-between Jimmie Johnson and Cody Ware in the final results. Sleeper: Graham Rahal.
