We are not quite at Formula One's summer break. We haven't even hit the midway point of the season yet, but with ten races complete and at least 12 races remaining, this is a good time to look at the sample size of the 2021 season.
Two teams have split every race, which is no surprise, but the top two drivers in the championship come from two different teams and less than ten points separate the two. While only two teams have won a race, the top three in the championship come from three different teams and nine drivers from six teams have stood on the podium this season. Eight teams have scored points and 16 drivers have a score on the board.
This season has felt simultaneously familiar and yet refreshing considering how the turbo-hybrid has typically played out. It has not been a wide-open competition with unexpected winners and the championship being completely unpredictable, but this is the closest inter-team battle Formula One has seen since 2012, and in all likelihood the world championship will go to the wire.
So... we have a championship fight?
Apparently so, and the events of the British Grand Prix have only made it closer. With Max Verstappen exiting the race on the opening lap after contact with Lewis Hamilton, Verstappen suffered a significant blow after the Dutchman had won three consecutive races and four in the previous five. While Hamilton was handed a ten-second penalty during the race, Verstappen was guaranteed zero points. Hamilton overcame the obstacle and pulled out a thrilling victory at Silverstone.
That result closed the gap between Verstappen and Hamilton down to eight points with possibly 12 or 13 races remaining in the 2021 season.
And more than one championship is in play after Silverstone. With Verstappen's opening lap retirement, on top of Sergio Pérez having to start from the pit lane after his sprint qualifying incident, Mercedes took a first and third, scoring 40 points, plus three points from sprint qualifying and has closed the gap to four points between Red Bull and Mercedes.
Add to it, Helmut Marko believes Hamilton should be suspended for the incident with Verstappen at Silverstone. Hamilton does not believe he needs to apologize for the contact. Verstappen believes Hamilton showed poor sportsmanship for his celebration while Verstappen was in hospital as a precaution. After Silverstone, it is clear these two parties will not get along down the stretch, and after Hamilton was only handed a ten-second penalty for the contact, I bet Verstappen is willing to resort to contact if he has to in a race later this season.
We are going to see more sparks and conflicts in the final half of this season.
Who has the upper hand?
Prior to the British Grand Prix, this question was going to be "Is this Red Bull's to lose?"
How one race can change everything?
Through ten races, Red Bull has won six races to Mercedes' four. Verstappen is up five to Hamilton's four with Pérez on one. When Verstappen has reached the checkered flag, he has been first or second. Verstappen has started on pole position five times. Valtteri Bottas does not have a victory, but Bottas has been on the podium six times in the first ten races.
I am leaning toward advantage Red Bull. Hamilton's British Grand Prix victory will come with a footnote, but at Bahrain, Verstappen was charging down Hamilton with Hamilton holding on late. At Spain, Hamilton used a two-stop strategy that Red Bull chose not to counter. Verstappen was clearly the better driver at Monaco, France and both Austria races.
You can look back on this season and have a reasonable argument Hamilton was the better driver at only Portimão. If it wasn't for his spin at Azerbaijan, Verstappen would likely have six victories.
However, after seeing how Red Bull has responded after the Silverstone accident, the pressure could get to Verstappen. I don't think he will crater, but Hamilton is not going to give an inch. We don't see Hamilton stumble often. It wasn't look ago Hamilton got under the skin of Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari and took away a championship when Ferrari had the upper hand through the first half of the season.
I think Verstappen is more likely to beat himself than Hamilton. Hamilton and Mercedes are built to overcome adversity. These will be the highest stakes Verstappen has ever faced and it has been nine years since Red Bull has been in a championship fight with another team. Verstappen and Red Bull should feel confident, but it is not an underdog. Losing this championship will not bring any moral victories.
Does Mercedes need a shakeup?
Before Silverstone, I was ready to say it is time to get George Russell in the second Mercedes, and nothing has changed that thought even though Mercedes had a wonderful points haul. Bottas really had nothing to do with it.
Bottas lost ground at the initial start and fell behind Charles Leclerc, who in turn led the first 49 laps before Hamilton's late pass. Bottas lost ground on the restart, falling behind Lando Norris and only getting that position back through the first pit cycle when Norris had a significantly slow stop. It all worked out for Mercedes, and Hamilton pulled out the victory, but it had to do more work because of what Bottas was unable to accomplish.
Red Bull is known for pulling the trigger and making a driver change to get the most out of the team. I think it would do Mercedes wonders if it made the same call and flipped Russell and Bottas.
Russell is putting the Williams in Q3. He is ready to be the number two and maximize Mercedes' point total. Bottas has been good, but too many times when Mercedes has needed him to step up and be there, he hasn't been present.
Nobody thinks Mercedes will make the switch midseason. We are ready for Russell to make the move ahead of the 2022 season, but I think it wouldn't hurt Mercedes if it made the change now.
Could McLaren have its day?
One driver has scored points in every race this season. That would be Lando Norris.
Ten-for-ten has Norris on 113 points, third in the championship, five points ahead of Bottas and nine points ahead of Pérez. This is already the most points Norris has scored in a season and he has stood on the podium three times.
Norris started on the front row at the Styrian Grand Prix, he started third for the Austrian Grand Prix and he has finished in the top five in nine of ten races. The exception is an eighth at Barcelona.
Yeah, McLaren could have its day. We all remember the Sakhir Grand Prix last year, don't we? There were a few thoughts at Silverstone that with Verstappen out, Pérez mired at the rear, Hamilton on a ten-second penalty and Charles Leclerc already leading, Norris would have a shot at victory, especially after he jumped ahead of Bottas on the restart. Norris ended up falling to fourth, but if we have another crazy race where at least one Mercedes and one Red Bull fall out and the other Mercedes and Red Bull have to serve a penalty or have to make an extra pit stop, it could fall for Norris to win.
As for Daniel Ricciardo, the Australian has struggled through the first half of the season. Ricciardo is on 50 points, eighth in the championship. His fifth at Silverstone was his first top five result of the season. Ricciardo does have a history of a tough first season with a new team. He was ninth in his first year with Renault on 54 points. The next season he was fifth on 119 points and stood on the podium two times.
This year has not been as rough as Ricciardo's first Renault season, and he has looked better in recent races. The surprising thing is how wide the gap is between the two McLaren drivers. I thought there would be an edge to Ricciardo, but I didn't expect him to be over 50 points behind Norris through ten races. I thought if Ricciardo was trailing, it would be about 15 or 20 points at the most through ten races.
We could see Ricciardo flip the script in the second half of the season and there could be a few races where he is the lead McLaren. For now, it is Norris' team and Norris is most likely to get McLaren its first grand prix victory since the 2012 Brazilian Grand Prix.
What is the Drive to Survive storyline I want to see most from the first ten races?
There are a few, and Silverstone aside, I put Charles Leclerc's Monaco Grand Prix is at the top, and Leclerc didn't even start the race.
Performing better than expectations, Leclerc had his Ferrari set for pole position when he collided with the barriers in turn 15 and 16. The red flag ended the session, but Leclerc's accident affectively clinched him pole position, as long as the team did not need to take any grid penalties for a gearbox change.
Ferrari worked overnight to assure the Monegasque driver would retain the freedom of the front row for his home race and when it came time for the reconnaissance lap, it looked like Ferrari had done. The car was set, no grid penalties had to be assessed and Ferrari was looking to be in contention for a race victory with a less compelling race car.
When Leclerc exited the car, it was discovered the left driveshaft was damaged and with not enough time to repair, Leclerc could not start his home race.
It was a crushing blow for Leclerc and the team. A hint of drama was removed from the race as the Ferrari would not be at the front battling Verstappen and Red Bull into turn one, in what could have decided how the race played out. Instead, Verstappen had a clean and clear line into turn one and the Dutchman would lead all 78 laps and win nearly nine seconds clear of Leclerc's teammate Carlos Sainz, Jr.
There are a few other moments we would like to see. Valtteri Bottas' blow up after the French Grand Prix, Imola after Bottas and George Russell came together, Azerbaijan from Verstappen's tire failure to Hamilton's mistake, but there is something about Ferrari find new ways to stub its toe.
Which midfield team should be the happiest?
This is a tough question because the three teams in the middle each have been a little underwhelming, but have had bright spots.
AlphaTauri had Pierre Gasly finish third at Azerbaijan and the team has scored points in every race, but it has had both drivers score points only once, Azerbaijan and Yuki Tsunoda has only ten points with four points finishes.
Aston Martin had Sebastian Vettel finish second at Azerbaijan, but Vettel has scored points in only three races and Lance Stroll has not finished better than eighth this season.
Alpine has scored points in the last nine races, but it has yet to have a top five finisher this season.
I would say AlphaTauri should be happiest because it leads this mid-pack triad in the championship, but Gasly's third is also the team's only top five result. Aston Martin has not been great and Vettel's runner-up at Baku covers up a lot of the cracks. This team is nowhere near its final seaosn as Racing Point. Alpine has been good, but just when it looks like Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon are going to be regular point scorers and carry Alpine up the standings, Ocon hits a rut.
AlphaTauri has at least shown better pace and could put together a race weekend where Gasly finishes in the top five and no one would be surprised. Alpine should be next happiest because both drivers have a respectable number of points finishes. Aston Martin is at the bottom because it was Racing Point last year and was consistently putting both cars in the points with the occasional podium finish. A victory even fell to the team. A victory is likely not falling Aston Martin's way this year unless the top nine cars all retire from a race and an Aston Martin is in tenth.
It will be a fun fight for fifth in the championship. Only nine points separate the top three. AlphaTauri is only a point ahead of Aston Martin. Alpine will make this a fight and it would not be surprising if Alpine ended up fifth, especially if Alonso and Ocon continue to both score points.
Should we say anything about Alfa Romeo?
Alfa Romeo has two points and is taking up space on the grid. It isn't competing for points. It isn't a threat for a good day. Kimi Räikkönen is collecting a paycheck and Antonio Giovinazzi is collecting Formula One starts.
There is nothing to take away from Alfa Romeo. Räikkönen is just there and there is a moronic sect who believe his deadpanned presence is needed at every race, even if he is adding nothing to the event. Giovinazzi is not moving up the Formula One ladder. Ferrari is never going to call. Red Bull is never going to call. Mercedes probably doesn't even know he is on the grid.
Alfa Romeo isn't going to become a respectable team anytime soon. We all wish it would. We wish the middle was tighter and we could see it end up with a top six result because everything click that weekend, but that will not happen.
And Haas?
Haas has not improved the car and it is finishing 19th and 20th unless other cars retire. The cars might be 18th and 19th or 17th and 18th. Or Azerbaijan happens where a half-dozen cars fall out of the race and Hamilton blows the first corner on the final restart and the cars end up 13th or 14th, but they are not competitive.
Mick Schumacher is getting some experience and Nikita Mazepin is bringing a paycheck. Schumacher is 18th in the championship with his best finish being 13th at Azerbaijan. Mazepin is 20th, but he only dropped to 20th at Silverstone. Mazepin and Nicholas Latifi have both had a best finish of 14th, but Latifi's second best finish is 15th while Mazepin's next best finish is 17th, hence why the tiebreaker goes to Latifi. Latifi only finished 14th at Silverstone. Prior to the British Grand Prix, Mazepin was ahead of the Williams driver.
Has Schumacher done anything spectacular? No. Has Mazepin had his low moments? Yes.
But I will slightly defend Mazepin because he has not been some disaster. Look up Yuji Ide or Sakon Yamamoto. Mazepin is not a likable driver, but we cannot ignore that he was fifth in Formula Two last year and had a respectable number of podium finishes. He also was second in the 2018 GP3 championship and won four races. Mazepin is certainly there because he brings money, but he is not the most unqualified driver in Formula One history. Does he spin regularly? Does he come off as completely unaware or completely ignorant of his surroundings? Yes.
Eventually the money will run out and Mazepin will gone... and then the next spoiled rich kid will be here.
Will technical changes swing the second half of the season?
Possibly, but I don't think there will be any changes that cut the legs out from a top team.
The most notable change we will see at Hungary and it is the removal of automated release systems on pit stops. Red Bull was the team in the crosshairs with this change, as the team had sensors to determine when a pit stop was complete and a driver could exit the pit box. This allowed for faster pit stops, but does increase the likelihood of an error and a possible safety concern.
Pit stops have been hovering just about two seconds for most of the last decade, but Red Bull has already gone sub-two seconds and could be on the verge of doing it regularly.
The removal of this system will only add a few tenths to each pit stop, about three to five from the sounds of it, nothing that debilitating to Red Bull, but those tenths could decide whether or not a car gets out ahead of another competitor on track. It could decide whether or not a car gets out within DRS range or not.
Is that enough to take the championship from Red Bull? It shouldn't be. Could it cost Red Bull a race or two? Yes, but it is not going to relegate Red Bull from top of the pile to fighting Alpine for ninth.
The other article that could be addressed is flexible aerodynamic pieces, which were a big deal back in May after Lewis Hamilton noted the bendy rear wings on the Red Bull.
While the stewards have said the Red Bull car is compliant, that doesn't mean the FIA will not change the rules and make it more stringent. I think it is too late in the season to tighten the flexibility allowance, but it could be something of note heading into 2022.
How will the second half play out?
The high downforce nature of Hungary tends to mean Monaco is used as the measuring stick and Red Bull looked good at Monaco. Mercedes did not look good at Monaco. Belgium has long straightaways and high speed. Azerbaijan has long straightaways and high speed. Red Bull won at Azerbaijan and Verstappen dominated that race. Hamilton was close at Azerbaijan, but not good enough. That blown restart late makes Hamilton's defeat look worse, but he was only going to finish third in that restart had it not been for Verstappen's tire failure and subsequent restart. Mercedes has won four of the last six races at Spa-Francorchamps. Red Bull has not won in Belgium since 2014
Zandvoort is a wild card before Monza, another high speed circuit, which has historically played into Mercedes' favor. Mercedes had won five consecutive Italian Grand Prix before Charles Leclerc's victory in 2019 and Pierre Gasly's surprise victory last year. Hamilton dominated the opening segment at Monza last year before safety car periods and a penalty for making a pit stop when the pit lane was closed derailed his race.
Mercedes is unbeaten at Sochi. Turkey remains a wild card because last year's race was on a wet surface and the asphalt still hadn't cured when Formula One returned to Istanbul. Suzuka is still on the schedule and Mercedes has won six consecutive Japanese Grand Prix. Mercedes has won five of six United States Grand Prix in the turbo-hybrid era.
Mexico has been a toss-up between Mercedes and Red Bull since it returned to the calendar in 2015, but Mexico has yet to carry this kind of championship implications between two different teams. The same could be said of Interlagos. There remains a TBD spot on the calendar after the Australian Grand Prix was canceled.
Saudi Arabia will host its inaugural grand prix in the penultimate round and Abu Dhubi closes the season. Mercedes had won six consecutive races at Yas Marina before Verstappen won last year. Abu Dhubi is also undergoing a reconfiguration that will see a single hairpin in place of turns four, five and six. A banked corner will be introduced in place of turns 11 through 14. The hotel corners will be opened up to allowed for greater speed.
I feel comfortable saying Red Bull has the edge at four races with Mercedes having four in its favor, Abu Dhabi is split between the two and the reconfiguration only makes it more unclear, and Zandvoort, Istanbul and Saudi Arabia are complete toss ups.
The next two races are in Red Bull's favor and if it wins both, it could carry the momentum into the final portion of the season. Though Red Bull has arguably been the best team through ten races, I feel like it is more imperative that Red Bull win the races that are in its favor on paper than Mercedes.
As for the rest of the championship, I think Pérez will get third and Bottas will get fourth, sliding Norris down to fifth. Ricciardo will split the Ferrari drivers. Alonso will move into the top ten in the championship. Tsunoda will find his groove. Russell will score points with Williams and win Driver of the Day in whatever race he scores.
Verstappen and Hamilton will win majority of the races, but I will leave the door open for a surprise winner and I am not talking about their teammates. We will also see at least one race expanded into a doubleheader.
