1. Finally! After grueling defeats at Belle Isle and Road America, Josef Newgarden and Team Penske finally got their first victory of 2021, leading 73 of 80 laps around Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, but it was a close call in the final laps, as Marcus Ericsson closed on the American.
Newgarden went unchallenged for most of this race, with the lead never really dipping below six seconds after the first round of pit stops. Colton Herta was Newgarden's main challenger in the opening stint, but when Herta had a re-fueling issue on his first stop that alleviated any pressure and Newgarden set sail.
However, in the final laps, Ericsson had more tire and claw into the six-second gap. It was down to 8/10ths at the start of the final lap with traffic ahead. Newgarden was able to hold on, but it was much closer than anyone had expected. If this race had been 85 laps, as it has been in the past, Ericsson might have won. If it was 90 laps, as it has been in the past, well it would likely have been a three-stop race and it could have been a completely different outcome. After all the bad luck, Newgarden caught a break today.
We are a Jimmie Johnson spin and an Ed Jones suspension failure away from Newgarden having three consecutive victories, be the only multi-race winner this season and likely carrying all the championship momentum into the summer break with six races remaining. And while this was only Newgarden's first victory, I wouldn't rule him out.
Yes, this was his first victory of the season and he is still fourth in the championship, 69 points back, but last year Penske hit its stride down the stretch. Penske started 2020 with two victories through the first seven races. It ended 2020 with five victories in the final seven races. Newgarden has won on two of the next three tracks and the next race will be his home race in Nashville.
I think Newgarden is still in this. The heartache has to be mostly behind him. If he can keep the fire going through the summer break, a third championship is still in the cards.
2. Marcus Ericsson benefitted from Colton Herta's pit misfortune and took second place, and he made the most of it. I doubt many thought Ericsson could possibly chase down Newgarden with 25 laps to go. I bet many thought he would settle in and take second, and that would have been fine. He deserved that result at least. Ericsson showed he has turned a corner and it was a performance Ericsson needed.
This is his second podium finish of the season and the third of his career. Ericsson has yet to have a strong day from start to finish in his IndyCar career. This was only his second top five start in his first two and a half IndyCar seasons, but he needed one race where he started at the front and stayed at the front, even if he wasn't fighting for the victory.
Ericsson accomplished that today, and then some. He was a threat to the checkered flag and this is a big confidence boost for him and the entire Ganassi team. Ericsson has gotten better each season. Things are looking good heading into the final stretch.
3. Álex Palou is not going to throw away this champion. Palou was stuck in fifth for a good portion of this race. It wasn't going to be a bad day, but he was going to leave some points on the table.
Coming to that final pit stop, Palou went longer than Scott Dixon and Alexander Rossi, who were directly ahead of him, and Palou jumped into third after that pit cycle. The Spaniard proceeded to drive away and finish over eight seconds ahead of his teammate Dixon.
Newgarden will be a contender, but Palou limited the damage and he has six podium finishes from ten races. If Palou keeps up that record it will require flawlessness from Newgarden, Dixon, Patricio O'Ward or whoever if they want to take the title from him.
I don't see that happening. Palou is too positive. He qualified seventh and emerged from the car with a smile. Dario Franchitti questioned him on the pit stand, but Palou liked his chances from seventh at Mid-Ohio of all places. He didn't win today, but he got third. If Palou had that level of confidence after qualifying seventh, everyone else will be in trouble.
4. Scott Dixon held onto fourth, and almost ran in aid to Palou's championship hopes today. Dixon did not have a great car today, but he was able to fend off Rossi for much of the race. Dixon beat Rossi out in the pit cycle, Rossi couldn't get ahead on the alternate tire despite numerous looks. Dixon had just enough, but if Rossi had gotten by in the middle of the race, Rossi would have driven into the horizon and comfortably taken third.
Dixon might have finished in the top five after that, but Palou would have lost more points. I feel like this is the race where Ganassi put its chips behind Palou in the championship. Dixon could still go off, but I don't see it happening. Palou has been better than Dixon in majority of the races. Dixon was only the third best Ganassi car today. All three Ganassi cars finished in the top four, but Dixon was a distant third amongst the teammates.
By the time IndyCar arrives at Nashville, it will have been three months since Dixon came within one victory of tying Mario Andretti for second all-time. At the start of the year, I thought Dixon would definitely get second in victories. I cannot say with confidence that he will even tie it this year.
5. Alexander Rossi gets his best finish of the season, his first top five finish of the season, and it still feels like a disappointment. Rossi should have been on the podium, but something just doesn't click for Rossi in each race. Today, it was a slow pit stop when he needed a quick one and he couldn't get pass Dixon if his life depended on it.
But Andretti Autosport underperformed across the board. For Rossi, it just feels like every race something goes wrong, and it is minor. I was half expecting Rossi to fall to seventh and finish seventh for the fourth time this season.
Ganassi is clicking at 100%. Penske has not had things go its way, but it is still clicking at 95%, has one victory and very well could have four or five. Andretti is somewhere at 80% and that is not good enough. This team needs to wake up after this summer break. The final six races are crucial for the organization.
6. Graham Rahal was sixth, and that is where Rahal has been living all season. He has seven top ten finishes from ten races and that Indianapolis 500 result haunts his season. If that left rear tire had been properly attached, Rahal likely finishes in the top five, maybe in the top three and he could have won. Instead of scoring 11 points, he likely would have gotten at least 60 points and those almost 50 extra points would have him solidly in the top five of the championship.
Hypotheticals aside, Rahal is there. He just needs one weekend where it clicks and a few other drivers are off.
7. Romain Grosjean went from 18th to seventh. That result is made easier when five cars starting ahead of you are taken out in two cautions before a full green flag lap had been completed, but Grosjean looked racy all day and he was making passes early. Not to mention he had some minor front wing damage on the opening corner incident.
If Grosjean had qualified in the top 12, I think he ends up in the top five, maybe on the podium. He has been the best rookie this season.
8. Like Grosjean, Patricio O'Ward went from 20th to eighth. O'Ward looked good. He was struggling in the closing laps on tires, but it is still a strong result when you consider where he started. He could have lost significant ground to Palou today. He does slip a bit, but he is still second in the championship.
9. Four races and four top ten finishes from Santino Ferrucci this season, as he came home in ninth. Ferrucci started 22nd. He made the right moves, and the team nailed the strategy. This is believed to be Ferrucci's final race of the season, as he has some NASCAR Xfinity Series commitments, but Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has said it could run the #45 Honda in more events. The #45 Honda is currently in the top 22 of the entrants' championship. It would earn the Leader Circle money if it remains in the top 22, a little more than $1 million that would serve as a foundation for an entry in 2022.
I think RLLR should keep Ferrucci in the car. I am still not entirely sold that he is a great driver, but this has been a great spell. Until he shows otherwise, I think this is RLLR's driver.
10. Takuma Sato made it three RLLR cars in the top ten. It was not a spectacular day for Sato, and at one point I was going to write that Sato's season has been marginally disappointing. He has not factored in any races this season. He didn't factor in this one either, but he still finished tenth. It is a good day, but there is room for improvement.
11. Sébastien Bourdais was a 11th, which isn't great. Bourdais was penalized for blocking Grosjean in the opening stint. I thought it was a little harsh. Bourdais did react to Grosjean looking up the inside into the keyhole, but Bourdais didn't slam the door. I thought Bourdais should have only been given a warning and if he had done it a second time then it could be a penalty.
But IndyCar said Bourdais had to give back not one spot, but two. I think that is harsh and I don't recall anyone being required to give up two spots before. One spot, yes, but two? Bourdais let Grosjean by and then another driver. That felt like overkill. I don't think it ruined Bourdais' day and if it was only one position, Bourdais likely still finishes 11th. It was interesting. That's all.
12. Scott McLaughlin was 12th, and it was a good day. He went 30 laps on his final stint. Credit to him for stretching his fuel.
13. Colton Herta had the race from hell. First, there was the re-fueling issue on Herta's first stop. It didn't ruin his race, but it dropped him from second to eighth, which could have been worse. Herta looked strong in the second stint, decided to go longer on the second stint and then he stalled on his second stop. However, he still came out in ninth. Not bad and Herta was running down the cars ahead of him in the closing lap.
However, Herta had to get a splash of fuel on the penultimate lap and instead of maybe climbing into the top seven, he ended up 13th.
Herta's day just goes with Rossi's. I think Andretti Autosport could have had two cars on the podium today. It ended up with zero and only one car in the top ten. This is the sixth time Andretti Autosport had only one top ten finisher. There was also the Indianapolis 500 where none of Andretti Autosport's five cars finished in the top fifteen.
The team had four top ten starters today. They have had plenty of wakeup calls this season. This is just another one, and they keep failing to answer the bell.
14. Simon Pagenaud gambled and decided to make his final stop with 31 laps to go. It only got him 14th and he had to save down the stretch. Minus Newgarden, it was not a great day for Team Penske.
15. Conor Daly beat Rinus VeeKay in the Ed Carpenter Racing head-to-head matchup, but they were 15th and 16th. That is not impressive.
16. James Hinchcliffe ended up 17th despite hitting Ryan Hunter-Reay on the start and ruining both Andretti Autosport drivers' top ten starts. Felix Rosenqvist also spun in that accident after contact from Grosjean.
I am not sure there could have been a worst trio to get in an opening lap accident.
For Hinchcliffe, he has not been remotely competitive this season and when he finally looked promising, he causes a collision and took out one of his teammates, who also needed a strong day.
For Hunter-Reay, it is easily the fourth time this season he has lost what should be a positive result. He has started in the top ten of four of the last five races and his best finish is 11th in that timeframe. Not to mention Hunter-Reay is likely looking at his final days as a full-time IndyCar driver. It is a tough pill to swallow, and Hunter-Reay is not going out in style.
For Rosenqvist, can't he just have a good day? Between the Belle Isle accident and having to miss Road America, he needed a race with no incidents and then he gets hit in the first corner. If someone needed a break, it is Rosenqvist.
All three of these drivers likely woke up thinking this was a great shot to head into the summer break with promise. All head into the off period on a down note.
17. Max Chilton was 18th, so back to usual for Chilton after finishing tenth at Road America. Jack Harvey tried a three-stop strategy, and it went nowhere. Once the first eight laps were run under yellow, a three-stop strategy was likely not going to be that rewarding. It hurt Harvey more because he tossed away a second round qualifying appearance. If he makes the Fast 12, he isn't starting 23rd and throwing a Hail Mary in a three-stop strategy.
18. Ryan Norman was 20th on debut. Good for him. Dalton Kellett was 21st. So usual. Jimmie Johnson was 22nd, again, usual.
19. Will Power spun after getting on the turn five curbs on lap four inside of Scott Dixon, and Ed Jones hit Power as he could not see him through the smoke.
Power lit up the tires when he spun, and I think it was overly aggressive on his part. I get he doesn't want to lose ground, but he made that an unsafe situation. If he spins and just rolls off course, he possibly could have spun and been facing the correct way and then continued onward and Jones would have remained in the race as well.
I think Power took an unnecessary risk. I get that he wants to get the most of that bad circumstance, but I think he made it worse and cost himself what could have been a promising day despite the spin.
20. And now we get a month off. I am of two minds. I don't like the space between races. I know it is only because Toronto was cancelled and this would have been a week-shorter break, so I am not too upset about it, even though I wish there was a race next week. But I also like the summer break. I like having four weeks off and getting to do other things.
You can view it as a negative but find a positive. It is much better than you are making it out to be. Enjoy the time.
