August ends and September brings the NASCAR playoffs. Ten races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, and we are down to the 16 drivers battling for the championship.
The final ten races take place over some of NASCAR's most historic racetracks, ranging from half-mile bullrings to a twisty infield road course and NASCAR's largest oval with a few intermediate racetracks in-between.
In the regular season, 13 different drivers won a race, but two of the three non-race winners combined to win 16 races last year. Of the 13 different winners, six won multiple races. Eight different teams are represented in the playoffs with five of those teams having multiple drivers. Twelve drivers are returning playoff drivers from the 2020 season including the top ten championship finishers from last year.
Seven past champions are in this playoff field and there have been five different champions in the last five seasons. Only once in NASCAR history has there been six consecutive different champions. Each manufacture has been represented in the last three champions.
1. Kyle Larson - 2052 Points
Victories: 5 (Las Vegas I, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville, Watkins Glen)
Top Fives: 14
Top Tens: 18
Darlington I Result: 2nd
Richmond I Result: 18th
Bristol Average Finish: 14.4 (Zero victories, two top fives, seven top tens, 12 starts)
What are his expectations: Final four.
Believed to be the best driver in the world, expectations are Larson at least makes the championship four. Anything less is a failure. That might be unfair, but that is what you get when you lead NASCAR in victories in a season and win a countless number of dirt races around the United States.
Larson has won on every type of track and he has won with each aero/horsepower package. He won with the high downforce/550-horsepower package at Las Vegas and Charlotte. He won with the low downforce/750-horsepower package at the two road courses and Nashville. The playoff breakdown is six 750-package races, three 550-package races (Las Vegas, Kansas, Texas) and then Talladega (450-horsepower, different tapered spacer).
Round one sets up nice for him to get at least one victory, even though he has never won at Bristol. Larson nearly pulled out Darlington in May. Either way, Larson has enough playoff points to carry him through round one. Round two sees him return to Las Vegas, has the Talladega toss up and ends with the Charlotte road course. He is feeling good about two of those races. Average days at Las Vegas and Charlotte combined with his playoff points should carry him through round two.
Round three is where everything could hit the fan. We saw it last year with Kevin Harvick losing out to clean air and Joey Logano at Kansas, hitting a wet patch at Texas and then being trapped a lap down for over 100 laps at Martinsville. Only a fool would say hands down Larson is a lock for the final round and nothing can go wrong in the semifinal round.
A lot of unfortunate events conspired against Harvick and that triad of misfortune will not undercut Larson's season. Larson has been prone to bad results this year. Twice, he lost strong road course results. A team error ended his first Talladega race after three laps. Cautions took away a Kansas victory. It can happen, but I do not think Larson will be tripped up enough to miss the final race.
2. Ryan Blaney - 2024 Points
Victories: 3 (Atlanta I, Michigan, Daytona II)
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 8th
Richmond I Result: 11th
Bristol Average Finish: 20.0 (Zero victories, one top five, four top tens, 11 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight
Coming in hot is the Ohioan, as Blaney has won the last two races and finished second in the one before that. Blaney picked a good time to get hot and it lifted him to second when the drivers were re-racked ahead of the playoffs.
It is interesting because prior to this three-race stretch to close out August, Blaney had not finished better than fifth since his Atlanta victory. Things are looking good now, but we have a large enough sample size to suggest Blaney might not be fully up for the fight.
Let's start with round one, which includes arguably Blaney's worst three tracks and he was knocked out last year in this round. The good news is Blaney picked up his first top ten finish at Darlington in May, even though he has finished outside the top 15 in five of nine Darlington starts. He picked up his best Richmond finish in April, but that is only 11th and his average finish in ten starts is 23.4. He is respectable at Bristol, but he has finished outside the top 30 in four of 11 races.
An average round one should move Blaney on. In round two, Las Vegas is Blaney's second best track in terms of average finish with a minimum three starts, the Charlotte roval is his best track in terms of average finish with a minimum three starts and he has won twice at Talladega.
The semifinal round is a minimum, but I think he will fall short of the championship four. Looking at 750-package races, he has only one top five finish, a fifth at Loudon. Two of the three semifinal round races are 550 races, which should be in his favor, but that hot hand runs cold at some point.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. - 2024 Points
Victories: 3 (Phoenix I, Martinsville I, Darlington I)
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 1st
Richmond I Result: 5th
Bristol Average Finish: 20.7 (Zero victories, two top fives, three top tens, 30 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possible round of 12
Is it odd the semifinal round feels like a stretch for Truex?
This season started incredibly well. Three victories in the first 12 races, first to three victories, second in points after Darlington. Since then, only three top five finishes in the last 14 races, four finishes outside the top twenty and, after Daytona, Truex had dropped to seventh in points.
Round one is favorable for Truex. That could get him back on track. The next round is a tossup for everyone. He races well at Las Vegas, but how can you set any expectations when the other two races are Talladega and the Charlotte roval? There could be a 25-car accident at Talladega. If you avoid it, you could seal a spot in the semifinal round. If you are in it, you could be in a must-win situation for Charlotte. Good days in Las Vegas and Charlotte should get Truex through.
As for the next round, we haven't seen Truex have any bite since Darlington in May. His only top five finishes in 550 races are Homestead and Atlanta II, both third-place results. If it comes down to Martinsville or bust, I am not sure Truex will be in the right mind to get across the line. For the first time in a long time, it feels like Truex is missing something and will not get there.
4. Kyle Busch - 2022 Points
Victories: 2 (Kansas I, Pocono II)
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 16
Darlington I Result: 3rd
Richmond I Result: 8th
Bristol Average Finish: 12.8 (Eight victories, 14 top fives, 19 top tens, 31 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four
After the slog that was 2020, Kyle Busch has looked like the Kyle Busch of old in 2021. He picked up multiple victories in the regular season, he was tied for the third-most top five finishes and tied for second-most top ten finishes. He led at least one lap in 16 of the final 20 regular season races. His results are spread all over the place with four top five finishes on 750-tracks, but three of those were road courses.
Round one should not be a problem. Round one could almost be nicknamed the Kyle Busch round as he has 15 combined victories at the three tracks. If anyone was to suffer a one-two combo in round two and get knocked out early after tough days at Talladega and Charlotte, it is Kyle Busch. For all his ability, Busch is prone to bad results compiling and ruining a season.
He should make it through and then there is the semifinal round. He won at Kansas already, he has four Texas victories and two Martinsville victories. He has been in the top five of half his Martinsville starts. Only four drivers can make it, but if Busch gets through round two and adds another ten playoff points to his total, a championship four spot will also be assured to him.
5. Chase Elliott - 2021 Points
Victories: 2 (Austin, Road America)
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 16
Darlington I Result: 7th
Richmond I Result: 12th
Bristol Average Finish: 12.1 (Zero victories, three top fives, five top tens, ten starts)
What are his expectations: Final four
When you are the defending champion, expectations are higher, even if they are too lofty. The final four is not crazy of an expectation for Elliott. Elliott and Busch are level in each of the three finishing categories, they are 1.1 positions different in average finish and they are within 90 laps of each other.
Elliott is higher because of his teammates and Hendrick Motorsports' total accomplishments this season. Through 26 races, Hendrick Motorsports has 11 victories, six of which were 750 races. Six of the final ten events are 750 races. We saw Elliott win the right races last year. He is crowned the road course king. He has won the Charlotte roval race twice. Congratulations on the success, here are the consequences.
Elliott finished outside the top ten in only four 750-package races in the regular season, and one of those was Nashville where he was still 13th, but not as bad as 39th in the record book suggests because of his disqualification. He was taken out at the Daytona road course after leading 44 of 70 laps, and he led 53 laps at Loudon before falling to 18th.
Is it a little concerning Elliott's only victories are road courses? Yes. Is it a little concerning Elliott's last four top five finishes have been on road courses? Yes. He will buck that trend, but he cannot afford a slow start, and if he is behind entering the semifinals, his title defense will not make it to Phoenix.
6. Alex Bowman - 2015 Points
Victories: 3 (Richmond I, Dover, Pocono I)
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 17th
Richmond I Result: 1st
Bristol Average Finish: 22.0 (Zero victories, two top fives, four top tens, ten starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12, but possibly the surprise first round elimination
For a three-time race winner in 2021, Bowman does feel like a forgotten driver. He had only one top five finish in the last eight races. He did finish outside the top twenty in six of the first 26 races, so level to his number of top five finishes. He didn't lead a lap in the final seven regular season races, and he only led in seven regular season races. Despite three victories, Bowman was never in the top ten in points during the regular season.
I think Bowman will get through round one, and he is one of the few drivers were round two is favorable to him, but considering his season and lack of consistent stellar results, could he fall into a hole after a poor Southern 500 and not be able to get out? Even if he does, could the favorable second round turn its back on Bowman?
Last year, I thought Bowman would go on a run and make the round of eight, and I got that correct. This year I am not sure if he is good enough to be considered the third best Hendrick driver and he has the second most victories in the team! He should get through round one. As for round two, I think he will be fighting until the final lap to make it through.
7. Denny Hamlin - 2015 Points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 17
Darlington I Result: 5th
Richmond I Result: 2nd
Bristol Average Finish: 14.7 (Two victories, nine top fives, 14 top tens, 30 starts)
What are his expectations: Final four.
Hamlin should have a victory this season. He led nearly half the Daytona 500. He led over half of Martinsville and lost it late to his teammate Truex. He led over half of Richmond and lost it late to Bowman. He had a victory stolen from him at Indianapolis, though he was maybe a top five driver at best that day and just happened to cycle to the lead at the right time.
The crazy thing is in only three of the last 16 races has Hamlin led ten laps or more, 27 at Indianapolis, 11 in the first Pocono race and ten at Michigan. He has not finished in the top three since his runner-up at Richmond.
He is bound to win one. If he wins one, a second should come quickly. He could win any of the first round races, combine that with another Talladega victory and all of a sudden Hamlin is considered the man to beat in semifinal round. Add another Martinsville victory and Hamlin is the Vegas favorite entering the final race.
Hamlin hasn't won, but outside of Larson, who has been better this season? Despite his lack of laps led in the last three months, who has been better? Hamlin barely made the championship four last year, but I am not sure there are three more drivers that can top him in the next nine races to keep him from Phoenix.
8. William Byron - 2014 Points
Victories: 1 (Homestead)
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 16
Darlington I Result: 4th
Richmond I Result: 7th
Bristol Average Finish: 20.7 (Zero victories, zero top fives, one top ten, six starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight
One of the forgotten facts from the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season will be after the 26th race, Byron was ranked in the top five of the championship for 18 consecutive races. He has not been flashy, but he has been effective. It feels like every race he is running in the top five at some point. The results do not always come and as of late they have been sporadic with only one top five finishing in the last eight races. His average finish in that span is 20.5.
Last year, Byron entered hot and had some of his best results in the final 12 races of the season. Now he enters rather cold. I think he should get through round one with no problem. Round two is where he could get tripped up if this summer form continues into autumn, but I think he will correct this trend and sneak through even if it is just sneaking through. However, Byron was third in points among the Hendrick teammates after Daytona. He had the fewest victories of the four drivers. Do I think at least three Hendrick drivers can make the championship four? No, I do not.
9. Joey Logano - 2013 Points
Victories: 1 (Bristol)
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 13th
Richmond I Result: 3rd
Bristol Average Finish: 15.1 (Two victories, six top fives, ten top tens, 24 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12
This is another year where Logano is puzzling. In the last ten races, he has one top five finish, three top ten finishes and an average finish of 16.7. His only victory was the Bristol dirt race in April. All eight of his top five finishes were on 750 tracks, which is fine considering it is a six/four split in favor of higher horsepower, but he won Kansas last year to make the Phoenix finale. He had only two top ten finishes on 550 tracks, seventh in the second Pocono race and ninth at Las Vegas.
Based on the 750 races, Logano should get through round one, but the 750-influence is cut significantly in each concurring round. Talladega is in his favor, but at least six drivers will be banking on Talladega as his saving grace. There can only be one winner. He started the year great on road courses with finishes of second, this and fourth, but his last three road course results were 15th, 22nd and 34th. The semifinal round is two 550-races with one 750-race.
Logano finds a way every year. He is historically a strong playoff driver. When he needs results the most, he gets them. It would not be a surprise if he makes the semifinal round. Something tells me that will not be the case this year.
10. Brad Keselowski - 2008 Points
Victories: 1 (Talladega I)
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 10
Darlington I Result: 24th
Richmond I Result: 14th
Bristol Average Finish: 17.3 (Three victories, six top fives, seven top tens, 22 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possible first round elimination
Keselowski has been poor in recent weeks. It is not just the results. He just looks bad, making amateur errors and tearing up cars.
Though Keselowski has great success at the first round tracks, I think there is a good chance he is bounced because his 750 results, something Team Penske excelled at last year, have been putrid in 2021.
He has three top five finishes on 750 tracks, third at Loudon, fourth at Phoenix and fifth at the Daytona road course. Those are his only top ten finishes on 750 tracks as well. He has only five top ten finishes in the last 15 races.
On paper, he should make it out of round one, but I am not going to be surprised if he is bounced immediately. He is a lame-duck driver at Team Penske before he moves to Roush Fenway Racing as a part-owner. He has looked like a lame-duck for quite some time.
11. Kurt Busch - 2008 Points
Victories: 1 (Atlanta II)
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 9
Darlington I Result: 35th
Richmond I Result: 13th
Bristol Average Finish: 14.0 (Six victories, 12 top fives, 21 top tens, 40 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possible first round elimination
The wildly veteran is good for a second round appearance, but this year Busch has been a little off. Though he won at Atlanta, Busch has only nine top ten finishes and he is on pace for his fewest in a season since 2014. He is on pace for his fewest top five finishes since he had one in 2012.
Six of his top ten finishes have been on 750 tracks, fourth at the Daytona road course and Road America, sixth at the IMS road course, Sonoma and Pocono, and eighth at Nashville. Nashville is his only top ten finish at a track smaller than 1.5 miles or not a road course and Nashville is 1.333 miles, far from being considered a short track.
I think he will sneak through round one, but all his hope will be on round two. He won Las Vegas in stunning fashion last year. He is one of the better Talladega driver; but not great. Charlotte could be his best hope to make the semifinal round for a second consecutive season when you consider his road course results this year. I don't think he can bank on that one race. He has been good on road courses, but not great, and it appears he will need to be great at Charlotte to keep his season alive.
12. Christopher Bell - 2005 Points
Victories: 1 (Daytona Road Course)
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 10
Darlington I Result: 14th
Richmond I Result: 4th
Bristol Average Finish: 18.5 (Zero victories, zero top fives, one top ten, two starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination, possibly round of 12
Oof, this is tough. Bell won the second race of the season with the benefit of fresher tires late on the Daytona road course. He has had good runs on 750 tracks, with eight of his ten top ten results coming in that package. The first round is favorable, but he has not put together many great stretches of races this season. Only twice has he had consecutive top ten finishes. The first was seventh and ninth at Las Vegas and Phoenix in March. The other was second, eighth, second and seventh at Road America, Atlanta, Loudon and Watkins Glen.
Bell has to be on it and one bad result in this round could derail him. If he gets out of round one, round two will depend on Charlotte. His superspeedway results are abysmal, with only one top fifteen result in seven starts. That could all change with one good race at Talladega and then he could enter Charlotte comfortable on points to advance, but I believe it will be Charlotte-or-bust and Bell would fall short in that scenario.
13. Michael McDowell - 2005 Points
Victories: 1 (Daytona I)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 5
Darlington I Result: 27th
Richmond I Result: 27th
Bristol Average Finish: 29.9 (Zero victories, zero top fives, one top ten, 21 starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination
Let's get this one over with quickly, the fairy tale opening winner comes back to reality. After getting to live in glory for seven months, McDowell now needs to get results he cannot pull out. He might be in the middle of a career season, but two top five finishes and five top ten finishes does not suggest he is capable of a second round spot. Three of those top ten finishes were in the first three races. His other top ten finishes were third at Talladega and seventh in a rain-shortened Austin race.
Austin is his last top fifteen finish. He has never finished in the top fifteen at Darlington. He has one top fifteen finish in 20 Richmond starts and he has only two lead lap finishes at the 3/4-mile oval. I know he won the Daytona 500, but logic tells us this will be a swift exit.
14. Aric Almirola - 2005 Points
Victories: 1 (Loudon)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 3
Darlington I Result: 37th
Richmond I Result: 6th
Bristol Average Finish: 24.1 (Zero victories, two top fives, four top tens, 23 starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination, but possible round of 12
Almirola was bad this year, but one magic day at the Magic Mile scored him a victory and turned the 23rd driver in points into a playoff driver and a minimum 16th championship finish. Almirola ranked in the top 16 of the championship after zero of any of the first 26 races. He ranked in the top 20 after only one race, the second race of the season!
And yet I think Almirola could advance to round two because his best results are on 750 tracks. He won Loudon, he was sixth at Richmond and he won pole position and finished fourth at Nashville. He only did five laps at Darlington in May, so we don't really know how that race would have gone. He has seven top ten finishes at Richmond, tied with Kansas for his most at one track.
Of all the stupid things we have seen this season, Almirola stringing together three good results and advancing wouldn't even crack the top five. I don't see it happening, but I would not be surprised if it did.
15. Tyler Reddick - 2003 Points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 12th
Richmond I Result: 20th
Bristol Average Finish: 20.0 (Zero wins, one top five, one top ten, two starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination, possible round of 12
Reddick has been good this season, finishing 11th in points after 26 races. He finished in the top ten of half the regular season races, six of which were on 750 tracks, but three of those were on road courses and he had zero top five results at the 750 tracks.
Last year, Richard Childress Racing had a stellar opening round with Austin Dillon, nearly won at Darlington and Richmond, and looked like a potential semifinal team when the first round was over. One poor night at Las Vegas derailed those hopes.
I rate Reddick a little higher as a driver than Dillon. Darlington will dictate how this round goes. If Reddick gets a top ten result, he will have a great shot at advancing. If Reddick finishes outside the top ten and is one of the three worst playoff drivers, I do not see him turning around the results in the next two races.
This year is very difficult picking who will make it out of round one. Unlike previous seasons where it felt like three drivers were clear early exits if not four drivers, I think McDowell is the only surefire elimination. Almirola isn't a surefire because of his 750 results. If round one was Darlington, Las Vegas and say Dover then I think Almirola would be more of lock. Four or five drivers could be the other two eliminations from this round. It is hard to settle on which two it will be.
16. Kevin Harvick - 2002 Points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 16
Darlington I Result: 6th
Richmond I Result: 24th
Bristol Average Finish: 13.5 (Three victories, 13 top fives, 20 top tens, 40 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possible round of eight
This year has been a disappointing season compared to Harvick's nine-victory 2020 season, but Harvick is tied for the second-most top ten finishes this season. The top five results have been lacking and he has only led laps in five races this season, three of those plate races and in only one race did he lead more than 20 laps.
Harvick was in the top ten of over 60% of the regular season races. I know he is last on paper because of the reset and his only playoff points were for finishing ninth in the regular season. He did not win a stage in the regular season. But Harvick isn't a slouch. He wasn't horrific, he just wasn't the Kevin Harvick we are used to seeing.
His 750 results were good with eight top ten finishes, but only one top five finish, a fifth at Nashville. However, he did finish sixth in five of those 750 races. Give him a position at Loudon, Dover and Phoenix and the split is four top five finishes out of those eight races. It is ignored that Harvick was in the top ten of the championship after every regular season race. He was a top ten driver all season, but rarely looked like a top five driver.
He will have a solid round one. Round two does not line up well, but it is Kevin Harvick. Why couldn't he have a top five at Las Vegas, a top ten at Talladega and then another top ten at Charlotte? That will get him through. Last year, Kyle Busch appeared he was not going to win a race and then one fell his way, albeit after Busch was eliminated from the championship, but Kurt Busch won one out of nowhere last year. Logano went from not being a threatening driver to winning Kansas and securing a championship four spot.
Why couldn't Harvick run a reverse of last season and, instead of tallying wins every four races, strategically win one or two races, and make a deep playoff run? If anyone could do it, it is Harvick.
Playoff Predictions
First Round Eliminations:
16. Michael McDowell
15. Tyler Reddick
14. Kurt Busch
13. Aric Almirola
Second Round Eliminations:
12. Brad Keselowski
11. Christopher Bell
10. Alex Bowman
9. Joey Logano
Round of Eight Eliminations:
8. Martin Truex, Jr.
7. Kevin Harvick
6. William Byron
5. Ryan Blaney
Final Four:
4. Chase Elliott
3. Denny Hamlin
2. Kyle Busch
1. Kyle Larson
