This was a lost year for Colton Herta. There were too many mechanical issues, too many poor strategies, too many mistakes for him to be a championship contender, but plenty of times we saw Herta put on a clinic and look untouchable arguably more than anyone else this season. The only problem is something tripped him up, whether it was unfavorable cautions at Nashville, which forced him to drive over the edge, or a broken driveshaft at Gateway.
There is a world where Herta has four victories, maybe even five and he is heading into his other home race of Long Beach either leading the pack or with all the momentum in the world to stage a championship comeback.
Maybe next year, but this year is ending on a high note for Herta.
2. Álex Palou has a hand on the Astor Cup after a runner-up performance at Laguna Seca. In a near-flawless drive, Palou separated himself from the rest of the championship hopefuls and he increased his wiggle room heading into Long Beach.
We started this three-race stretch wondering if Palou's inexperience could cost him. Instead, he won Portland, was second in Laguna Seca and has a 35-point championship lead over Patricio O'Ward entering the finale after trailing O'Ward by 10 points two races ago.
This should be Palou's title. He has had one bad race all season, St. Petersburg. In the first Belle Isle race, he started at the back with a grid penalty. An engine expired while he was in the top five of the August IMS road course race and he was taken out at Gateway. He just needs one "ok" day and he will be champion.
3. Romain Grosjean is going to win races in IndyCar. He had a great start to jump into the top ten and Grosjean was just as good as Herta and Palou today. It felt like he never lost time on a stint. If only he had advanced from round one, then he could have won this race. Though he finished third, I think Grosjean was stronger than Palou today.
Grosjean made a few bold moves, two of note into the Corkscrew, one for position on Scott Dixon and another on the lapped car of Jimmie Johnson. He was spectacular today and I am glad he is loving IndyCar. It is nice to see a career revival
4. Graham Rahal had another strong race and he improved over each stint. Unfortunately, he started 12th again and couldn't compete for the victory because Herta was in another zip code by the time Rahal cracked the top five. Rahal wasn't as flashy as Grosjean, but he drove a smart race and after the disappointment of Portland, this was a good bounce back, even if the winless drought continues.
5. Patricio O'Ward gave it his all, but at another track that is hard on tires, O'Ward struggled and it cost him. He lost positions in the opening stint and Palou had the advantage from the start. O'Ward could never challenge to decrease his deficit. It has been the story of O'Ward season and it seems like in almost every race O'Ward had the balance wrong on the different compounds, Palou was on top.
At Barber, O'Ward started on pole position but he struggled with degradation and Palou won the race. O'Ward led early at Portland, but could not make his tires last at the start. Palou went on to win. Now today. O'Ward is still alive, but those three races in particular have made his life harder at Long Beach.
6. Marcus Ericsson quietly finished sixth. Ericsson may have finished fifth if he didn't go wide on the pit lane exit lane after his final pit stop. It was a good day for Ericsson, but while he has won two races this year, he does have a lot of these finishes from sixth to tenth. He needs to take a step forward and get more top five finishes.
7. Josef Newgarden needed to charge today and Tim Cindric decided to put Newgarden on a four-stop strategy. It didn't get him a victory and it didn't decrease his gap to Palou, but he kept his championship hopes alive. He was able to climb to seventh, 48 points behind Palou, which keeps him alive by a point.
Newgarden has to be perfect at Long Beach and have Palou be at the very bottom to have a prayer for a third championship. Newgarden deserves to at least be in the championship conversation. Forget the opening lap Barber spin for a second, Newgarden is one rushed pit strategy at Belle Isle and a gearbox failure at Road America away from having two more victories and this championship would have looked completely different. I think he has been better than O'Ward this season.
8. Simon Pagenaud was a good teammate and finished eighth today. That point keeps Newgarden alive. Pagenaud did stop early on a three-stop strategy. He looked competitive, but he was watching out for his teammate today.
9. Oliver Askew earned a respectable result in ninth. Askew lost some time at the start, but he drove smart and battled in the top ten all race. We need to give Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing credit because between Santino Ferrucci, Christian Lundgaard and Askew, all three drivers have been competitive in the #45 Honda, a part-time entry. Askew did himself wonders today. I am not sure if this seat is his. Ferrucci put up a strong case. The team could go with someone else, but Askew is one of a half-dozen drivers on the periphery who should be full-time in IndyCar.
10. Ed Jones had a good day and finished tenth. Jones was on the same strategy as his teammate Grosjean, but Jones did not have the same pace. That is fine. Grosjean is a significantly better driver, but Jones made it a double top ten day for DCR at a track where the team had a combined two top ten finishes in all its previous Laguna Seca races entering today.
11. Ryan Hunter-Reay drove himself into the top six and then he had a re-fueling issue on one stop, it cost him time and he settled for 11th. This day should have been better and it is tough to watch possibly the final races of Hunter-Reay's career play out like many other standout moments in his career, the worst possible break coming at the worst possible time.
This hasn't been a great year for Hunter-Reay and there have been plenty of races where he has not had it, but between the Indianapolis 500 where he was in the top five late and possibly could have been in the battle for the lead late only to speed entering pit lane on his final pit stop, contact at the start of Mid-Ohio, electrical issues at Portland and today, Hunter-Reay's season is a few results away from being good. It was never going to be great, but it should be better than this.
12. Scott McLaughlin had a good handle on Laguna Seca this weekend. McLaughlin jumped into the top ten at the start with Grosjean and he was running with Pagenaud for much of this race, before McLaughlin settled into 12th.
13. Scott Dixon's championship hopes ended when Takuma Sato spun in the Corkscrew and caught Dixon. Even before that incident, it seemed Dixon was resigned to aiding Palou get the championship today, even though Dixon was still alive. It has been a strange year for Dixon, not a bad year, but you have to wonder if we are seeing his final races as the undisputed best in IndyCar.
14. Let's run through the field: Sébastien Bourdais did all he could to finish 14th. Jack Harvey was stuck at the back and ended up 15th. Ed Carpenter Racing continues to languish with Conor Daly in 16th and Rinus VeeKay in 18th. Jimmie Johnson got his best IndyCar finish in 17th, but this was genuinely Johnson's best race. He beat a lot of guys on pace today. Felix Rosenqvist had his share of spins and ended up 19th. James Hinchcliffe was 20th, fitting for his season.
15. Max Chilton made the most of that top ten starting position, finishing 21st. Callum Ilott had an accident in the morning warm-up, so I think 22nd with 94 laps completed is a good day. At least Ilott was a position ahead of Dalton Kellett. I am not sure what Helio Castroneves did today other than finish 24th. Are we sure Meyer Shank Racing is making the right call having Castroneves return full-time?
16. Alexander Rossi had a good look on Herta into turn five on lap two after Herta went wide, but damn talk about misfortunate, as Herta nudged into Rossi, sending Rossi spinning off. Herta wasn't dirty, it was slight contact, costing Rossi a promising day. Too often has this happened to Rossi over the last two seasons.
17. Then you had Will Power with mechanical problems within the first 11 laps. Two years ago, Power was the only driver who could run with Herta. This year, Power started second and once Power was out no one got close to Herta except for when Herta was battling traffic.
18. Takuma Sato was running strong early after committing to what was likely a four-stop strategy considering Sato stopped on lap three under the Rossi caution and Sato was ahead of Newgarden. And then Sato threw it away with a spin in the corkscrew, clipping Dixon. A lot of drivers spun in the Corkscrew this weekend. It was kind of strange. It was also strange with all the spins and wheels dropped off course we didn't see a second caution in this race.
19. And now we move onto Long Beach. This is it. One race left. One week left. Where did the season go?
