The final three IndyCar races decided the Astor Cup and it was Álex Palou hoisting the silver cup after the final checkered flag at Long Beach, but the final three races had some bearing behind the real world.
Prior to Portland, we looked at the fictional league format for IndyCar, and Portland was the start of the playoffs. In the top league, the top eight team were competing for the championship. Meanwhile, four teams were fighting to stay in the top league and four teams from league two were fighting for promotion. How did things play out? We will start with the overall championship.
Quarterfinals
#5 AMSP def. #51 Coyne (14 to 22)
#30 RLLR def. #12 Penske (12 to 13)
#9 Ganassi def. #15 RLLR (3 to 10)
#2 Penske def. #22 Penske (5 to 21)
The first corner incident really decided half of this bracket. With Romain Grosjean and Will Power caught in accident at the start, it made it quite easy for Patricio O'Ward and Takuma Sato to take the victory. Sato did face quite a test because Power never fell off the lead lap, he just had to fight from behind and Sato held on by a position.
When Dixon was shuffled backward due to cutting the chicane, Graham Rahal was in the clear and led much of the race, but a mid-race caution and a split between two-stop and three-stop strategies torpedoed Rahal's strategy and unable to run the same pace as the three-stoppers, Rahal fell from the top spot. Dixon jumped ahead and took the victory.
Josef Newgarden was in a battle with Simon Pagenaud as both moved up the order, but when Pagenaud was spun from contact with teammate Will Power, all Newgarden had to do was keep the car on the road and Newgarden did that to advance.
Semifinals
#5 AMSP def. #30 RLLR (5 to 27)
#2 Penske def. #9 Ganassi (7 to 13)
Both these semifinals were closer than they appeared, and both these semifinals intersected one another. Sato was on a four-stop strategy, and he was in the top ten until he spun in the Corkscrew. Who did Sato collect in that spin? Scott Dixon!
Sato was out of it. Dixon was knocked back. O'Ward won with ease. Newgarden was arguably gifted a victory.
Final
#2 Penske def. #5 AMSP (2 to 27)
The championship was decided on the first lap. Ed Jones ran into the back of O'Ward in the hairpin at Long Beach. O'Ward was knocked out of the top ten and subsequent mechanical issues effectively ended his race. Newgarden kept running and for the third consecutive year, in three years of this competition, Josef Newgarden has won the head-to-head championship!
Relegation Bracket Semifinals
#28 Andretti def. #29 Andretti (15 to 27. #28 Andretti stays in League One)
#10 Ganassi def. #18 Coyne (1 to 11. #10 Ganassi stays in League One)
James Hinchcliffe was taken out in the start accident, making it a virtual walkover for Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Álex Palou was sent backward after Palou missed the chicane at the start, but strategy choices had Palou benefit from how the cautions fell and he ended up winning the entire race while Jones was at the front after the opening lap, but his strategy saw him slide down the order.
Promotion Bracket Semifinals
#20 ECR def. #48 Ganassi (16 to 20. #48 Ganassi remains in League Two)
#3 Penske def. #14 Foyt (9 to 18. #14 Foyt remains in League Two).
Neither Conor Daly nor Jimmie Johnson were all that impressive at Portland but Daly's average day was always going to be enough to defeat Johnson.
Scott McLaughlin avoided the incidents and made pit stops at the right time while Sébastien Bourdais was always stuck in the middle of the pack.
Relegation Bracket Final
#18 Coyne def. #29 Andretti (10 to 20. #18 Coyne remains in League One)
Jones had a strong day, running in the top ten with his teammate Grosjean. Hinchcliffe had started 11th but dropped to 20th.
Promotion Bracket Final
#3 Penske def. #20 ECR (12 to 16. #20 ECR remains in League Two)
While 16th was good enough for Daly the previous week, it was not enough to beat McLaughlin at Laguna Seca. McLaughlin stayed around the top ten already before settling in 12th.
Promotion Playoff Final
#3 Penske def. #29 Andretti (11 to 14. #3 Penske promoted to League One. #29 Andretti relegated to League Two)
Hinchcliffe was strong for the first half of the Long Beach race. He was running in the top ten but after his second pit stop, Hinchcliffe fell down the order. He was quickly out of the top ten and then behind McLaughlin.
McLaughlin won head-to-head and earned promotion. Hinchcliffe and Andretti Autosport fell out of the top league.
How Do Things Look For Next Year?
Next year, League One tentatively looks like this:
#2 Penske
#5 AMSP
#9 Ganassi
#30 RLLR
#12 Penske
#15 RLLR
#22 Penske
#51 Coyne
#27 Andretti
#26 Andretti
#18 Coyne
#10 Ganassi
#28 Andretti
#8 Ganassi
#60 MSR
#3 Penske
Which means our tentative League Two teams are:
#29 Andretti
#21 ECR
#7 AMSP
#20 ECR
#14 Foyt
#48 Ganassi
#59 Carlin
#4 Foyt
There are a few issues with next season. For starters, the #22 Penske entry is likely going away. That leaves a spot open in League One. Does the #29 Andretti stay? Should another League Two entry be promoted? There will also be two new entries full-time in the second Meyer Shank Racing car, the #06 Honda and Juncos Hollinger Racing will run the #77 Chevrolet. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing could be expanding to three cars. There is also a chance Carlin could expand to a second car or completely withdraw from a series.
Ahead of the 2021 season, I made an executive decision to have the #26 Andretti entry replace the #98 Andretti entry as the #98 entry was reduced to a one-off entry, the #88 entry became the #29 and putting the #26 Andretti entry into League One put Colton Herta into the top league.
I think I just have to see how the offseason plays out. I don't think any of the relegated entries should be kept up, but none of the other League Two entries are worthy of promotion.
If we look at the entrants' championship, the top 2021 team set to be in League Two next year is the #21 ECR entry, but that was dead last in its conference. The next best is surprisingly the #14 Foyt entry, but that entry wasn't even in the top two of League Two. A new entrant shouldn't automatically be included in the top league. I think I have to let the offseason play out, see where drivers land and then see who should fill out League One.
It appears the League Two format will need to be adjusted because it will likely have more than eight entries and could even have an odd number of entries. I might have more work to do this offseason.
I think we have to end on Josef Newgarden being a three-time, unbeaten champion. That might make him the undisputed best driver in IndyCar. He has always been the best in the head-to-head competition. In the last three years of the actual championship, he has been first, second and second. What are the odds of the same driver always coming out on top head-to-head? You are either really lucky or really damn good, and I am leaning toward Newgarden being really damn good.
In the three years, we have had Newgarden take on Ed Jones in the #20 ECR entry in the final, Newgarden against Dixon when both were the top two championship drivers, and this year it was Newgarden vs. O'Ward, which turned out to be the battle for second in the actual championship. Three years is a small sample size, but it looks like the best drivers in the championship are going to end up being the best in this, although 2021 IndyCar champion Álex Palou didn't even make the playoffs and had to participate in the relegation bracket playoff to stay alive.
We never know how it will play out, but head-to-head battles provide a different way to look at an IndyCar season.
