Monday, October 25, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: Andretti's Grand Expansion

Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton drove perfect races at Circuit of the Americas, but it was Verstappen taking victory in the United States Grand Prix. Fabio Quartararo clinched the MotoGP world championship with a fourth-place finish after Francesco Bagnaia crashed out of the lead while leading with six laps remaining at Misano. Some NASCAR folks were envious of Formula One. Team Penske will run a pair of LMP2 entries in the World Endurance Championship next year. Tristan Nunez will partner Pipo Derani at Action Express Racing next year. A handful of notable faces will be testing for IndyCar teams at Barber today, including Nico Hülkenberg with Arrow McLaren SP, Ryan Hunter-Reay with Ed Carpenter Racing and David Malukas with Dale Coyne Racing. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Andretti's Grand Expansion
Motorsports' latest worst kept secret is Andretti Autosport will purchase majority stakes in the Sauber Formula One operation and take over the Alfa Romeo program, though that appears to be on the rocks.

It would be a stunning development the IndyCar's long-running third best team would expand into the pinnacle of motorsports, but Andretti Autosport has slowly branched into a global motorsports operation over the last 15 years. It once fielded an Acura LMP2 entry in the American Le Mans Series championship, and it even operated the Team USA A1GP program in the series' final season in 2007-08. 

In recent years, Andretti's international exploration has been made through Formula E, where the team partnered with BMW through the 2021 season. Andretti expanded into Australian Supercars, purchasing a stake in Walkinshaw Racing with the Zak Brown-owned United Autosports. Andretti and United Autosports also co-operate an Extreme E program. 

But Formula One is the big time, and Andretti would go it alone should it take over the Swiss-based team. 

The deal isn't done yet, but for the last few weeks, the ground shaking has become more noticeable. Andretti entering Formula One would change the organization, though it still seems unthinkable Andretti Autosport is ready for this move. 

It was only six years ago Andretti Sports Marketing minority owners John Lopes and Starke Taylor sued Michael Andretti and Andretti Autosport and claimed Andretti Autosport was over $7 million in debt. That suit was settled within a week with ASM splitting from the racing team. 

The suit might have been settled, and we might not know Andretti Autosport's exact financial situation in 2015, but to go from claims the company being millions in debt to purchasing a team valued at $105 million in 2019 is an incredible leap. 

It feels like Andretti is biting off more than he can chew, and that is just the business side. The sporting side could bring its own questionable decisions. For starters, any Andretti Autosport takeover of Sauber suggests the team will bring Colton Herta to Formula One. 

Herta ended the 2021 IndyCar season with consecutive victories and tied for a series-high three victories. In three IndyCar seasons, Herta has six victories, and he has finished in the top seven in the championship in each of his full seasons, including top five championship finishes the last two years. At 21 years old, Herta has already established himself as one of IndyCar's best drivers, and he spent two years racing in Europe before committing to the Road to Indy ladder series. 

In 2015, he was third in the MSA Formula Championship. His teammate Lando Norris won the championship. Herta moved to the Euroformula Open Championship the following year and was third in that championship as well.

Herta may have European experience, but common sense says there is no rush to have Herta enter Formula One next year. There will be new regulations coming next year. With Herta already in a competitive IndyCar seat, there is no point in sending him to Formula One without knowing if the Formula One car is remotely competitive. Andretti doesn't have to send Herta to Formula One, nor does Herta have to leave IndyCar. This move can wait until the time is right. 

The smart play would be for Herta to run many Friday practice sessions next year to get him experience with the car and the Pirelli tires. Testing is limited in Formula One, but Friday practice is open for a third driver to gain experience. It is better than actual testing as Herta could get to experience a dozen different racetracks in a Formula One car. 

If anyone should know not to rush Herta to Formula One, it is Michael Andretti. Andretti's one Formula One season was in an underperforming McLaren racing Ford-Cosworth engines after Honda pulled out. Andretti struggled getting a handle of the car, and while teammate Ayrton Senna defended Andretti's ability considering the car, Andretti left the team before the season finished, even after finishing third in the Italian Grand Prix. 

After a successful United States Grand Prix weekend, with one American team already on the grid (Haas), another with American owners (Dorilton Capital owns Williams) and another run by an American (Zak Brown at McLaren), the next step is an American driver, something that has been absent from the grid on a regular basis for the last 30 years.

After Michael Andretti, the United States did not have a driver representative on the grid until Scott Speed debuted in 2006, but Speed only lasted a season-and-a-half. After Speed, Alexander Rossi made five starts with Marussia in 2015 before Rossi moved to IndyCar the following year. And though he ran under the Brazilian flag, Miami-born Pietro Fittipaldi started the final two races in 2020 replacing Romain Grosjean.

The last American regular was Eddie Cheever, who made 143 appearances over 11 seasons, his last coming in 1989. 

The belief is all Formula One has needed to click with the American audience is an American driver, but the United States has already had one of its best seasons in terms of viewership and the United States Grand Prix had one of its largest crowds in the nine years Austin's Circuit of the Americas has hosted. 

I don't believe America needs an American and it certainly wouldn't need Colton Herta. Most Americans do not know who Herta is now, and he races full-time in this country, and he is already American. To believe Herta is the key and will bring another two or three million people to the television screen for each Formula One race is unsubstantiated. IndyCar can barely get one million people to watch its races. Herta isn't going to bring anybody just being there.

Herta's introduction would immediately be doubted. It is a discount Lance Stroll move. Andretti might not have spent $80 million, including purchasing a Formula One team a simulator that it could not use because it was set up for Formula Three specs, to get Herta to Formula One, but it would be Andretti purchasing an entire team to drop a complete outsider in a Formula One car. 

For the last 20 years, Formula One has been accustomed to one path to Formula One. Everyone has come from the junior series in Europe. There haven't been many outside hires. Outside of Juan Pablo Montoya, Cristiano da Matta and Sébastien Bourdais, American open-wheel racing has not sent many drivers to Formula One. Christijan Albers, Paul di Resta and Esteban Ocon all might have moved over from the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters, but they all had Formula One ties. Di Resta and Ocon were both supported by Mercedes. The only other outsider jumping to Formula One was Brendon Hartley moving from the Porsche LMP1 program to Scuderia Toro Rosso. 

Formula One teams don't look outside its bubble. Andretti alone taking over a team is a bubble bursting move, putting Herta in a car would be one of the most alienating moves any team has made in the last two decades. The closest example I can come up with is Super Aguri entering Formula One and putting Yuji Ide in a car. Ide had finished third and second in the Formula Nippon championship in the two previous seasons before joining the Formula One grid at the start of 2006. Ide's Formula One career lasted all of four races before his Super License was revoked. 

I have confidence in saying Herta is much better than Ide was in 2006, but that is the closest modern example should Herta enter Formula One with an Andretti-owned team. Herta will be under a microscope. Many will believe Herta does not belong, even if he has the likes of Fernando Alonso, Zak Brown and Lando Norris vouching for his talent. There will be a contingent who see Herta as undeserving of a place on the Formula One grid, and the only way he got there was because someone from outside the Formula One establishment bought a team and put him in a car.

As the Andretti news has grown in the last few weeks, we have heard what the team wants to do, but we should be asking what Herta wants to do. There is a chance he fails or is at least underwhelming in Formula One. Not many drivers truly succeed in Formula One. It took Sergio Pérez nearly a decade to get his first grand prix victory. Before winning the Sakhir Grand Prix, I would have said Pérez had a successful Formula One career. He had podium finishes and respectable results in midfield machinery. No one dreams of being known for outperforming the equipment on a regular basis, but does Herta want that? Is Herta going to spend ten years in Formula One not winning races? 

When your only goal is Formula One, you will take it, but Herta is winning races and is a championship hopeful in IndyCar. Each May, he is one victory from greatness. Trading that all away for possibly one grand prix victory over ten years does not sound worth it. 

But I think it is worth giving Formula One a shot. IndyCar is great, but Formula One is the pinnacle. Mario Andretti's legacy is what it is because he is one of two American world champions. Nigel Mansell's move to IndyCar in 1993 was intriguing because he was the reigning World Drivers' champion. Indianapolis' boom in the 1960s was aided because the likes of Jim Clark, Graham Hill, Jackie Stewart, Jack Brabham and Denny Hulme showed up, all world champions. 

It has been 43 years since an American has won a grand prix and it has been 28 years since an American has stood on a podium. Both those drivers had the last name Andretti. For too long, the American fan base has been hoping one of its very best will get plucked out of the crowd and get a Formula One shot, but no American driver has really plunged into the deep end and focused on Formula One. To succeed in Formula One, you must be prepared to fail, and there is nothing wrong with failing. American drivers must accept vulnerability. None don't, mostly because they don't have to due to the comfort of racing at home with series like IndyCar, NASCAR and IMSA. That is the main reason in 30 years only three American drivers have combined for 46 Formula One starts.

Herta would be getting the most American friendly move to Formula One should Andretti take over Sauber, and Herta should go if he feels it is right for him. Andretti should know that as well. Herta should not be in a car for the 2022 season, but a plan should be laid out for the next few seasons. 

I believe Herta shouldn't be on the Formula One grid until 2024 at the earliest. Use 2022 to develop the car and give Herta seat time in Friday practices. Use 2023 to work on the car, as it is more likely the team gets 2022 wrong and will have to try over in 2023, and Herta can continue to get seat time in Friday practices. Then in 2024, Herta could make his Formula One debut at 23 years old with a more developed car and he could do it with experience at most of the circuits. It would also allow Herta to stay in IndyCar for two more years and possibly win more races and a championship. 

There shouldn't be any rush getting Herta on the Formula One grid, especially when Andretti could do it right if he takes over Sauber. For Herta, a properly planned Formula One move is worth it. Success there is greater than anything he can imagine in IndyCar. It might not work out but moving to Formula One with a team backing you is a chance worth taking. 

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Fabio Quartararo, but did you know...

Laurents Hörrs clinched the European Le Mans Series LMP3 class championship with a fourth-place finish in the #4 DKR Engineering Duqueine M30 - D08-Nissan with Mathieu de Barbuat at Portimão. 

The #80 Iron Lynx Ferrari of Matteo Cressoni, Rino Mastronardi and Miguel Molina clinched the ELMS GTE championship with its third victory of the season at Portimão.

Jamie Chadwick clinched her second consecutive W Series championship after sweeping the races at Austin.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen and company, but did you know...

Marc Márquez won MotoGP's Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, his third victory of the season. Sam Lowes won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. Dennis Foggia won the Moto3 race, his fifth victory.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Kansas, his ninth victory of the season. Ty Gibbs won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season.

The #22 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson of Phil Hanson, Tom Gamble and Jonathan Aberdein won the 4 Hours of Portimão. The #13 Inter Europol Competition Ligier-Nissan of Martin Hippe, Adam Eteki and Ugo de Wilde won in the LMP3 class.

The #8 ARTA Honda of Tomoki Nojiri and Nirei Fukuzumi won the Super GT race from Autopolis. The #31 apr Toyota Prius of Koki Saga and Yuki Nakayama won in GT300. 

Coming Up This Weekend
Super Formula closes its season at Suzuka.
FIA World Endurance Championship will run a six-hour race at Bahrain.
Supercars begins its four-week residency at Sydney Motorsports Park.
NASCAR will be in Martinsville, the penultimate round of the season.