NASCAR is done. After 35 race weekends from the middle of February to the start of November, the marathon is over. This year was a little more normal with no scheduled midweek races, no hybrid doubleheaders, and unfortunately not enough 500-kilometer races. There were a few different circuits on the schedule as NASCAR continues to look forward and doing things different.
Another season meant another year of predictions. How would these shake out?
1. Kyle Busch does not have winless drought of 33 races at any point
Correct! Busch opened 2021 on a two-race drought after not winning either of the final two races in 2020 at Martinsville or Phoenix. That drought got up to 13 races before he won the May Kansas race, the 11th race of the 2021 season, meaning his longest drought in 2021 could only be 25 races, meaning this prediction was satisfied before the quarter-post in the season.
Busch did win again in the second Pocono race, race 19 of the season. He ended 2021 on a 17-race drought, so he is more than halfway to another 33-race drought.
2. The Bristol dirt race will be the slowest average speed of the season by at least 12 mph
Correct! But this was much closer than first expected. The average speed of the Bristol dirt race was 46.313 mph.
The next slowest race was Austin at 59.024 mph in the wet, only 12.711 mph quicker than the Bristol dirt race. If Austin was dry, it would have been much quicker. We are lucky the race was called early like it was. Another lap or two under caution and this could have dipped within 12 mph of the Bristol dirt race.
There were two other races this season that average under 70 mph, Martinsville the week after the Bristol dirt race at 67.316 mph and the extended Indianapolis road course race at 69.171 mph. The next slowest race was the Martinsville playoff race at 70.968 mph and then Sonoma at 71.445 mph.
For comparison, the Bristol race in September on concrete was 87.409 mph.
3. There will be more winners from the first starting position in 2021 than in 2020
Correct! And it came down to the final race of the season!
In 2020, the first starting position won four races, Bristol at the end of May with Brad Keselowski, Homestead in June with Denny Hamlin, Hamlin again at Talladega in October and then Chase Elliott in the season finale at Phoenix, thought Elliott was sent to the back for inspection failures.
This year, there were five races won from the first starting position. Kyle Larson was responsible for all five victories, the Coca-Cola 600, Sonoma a week later and then consecutive races at Texas and Kansas in October before he won the Phoenix finale from pole position. Boom!
I will be honest; I was sure this one was going to be wrong when we got to the start of October. It just didn't look like it was in the cards and then it happened in three of the final four races.
4. Chase Elliott does not win more than two road course races
Correct! Elliott won two road course races, the rain-shortened Austin race and Road America. He probably could have won more road courses and it started with the first one of the season, possibly the final fill-in event of the pandemic for NASCAR. The Daytona road course returned for the second consecutive season as the second round of the season in place of Fontana.
Elliott led 44 laps before a questionable caution for rain slowed the race. Elliott stopped for tires under that caution and never got out of the middle of the field. He was second to Kyle Larson at Sonoma with 13 laps led, second to Larson at Watkins Glen, fourth on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with 14 laps led and then he was 12th on the Charlotte infield road course.
5. Chase Briscoe wins at least one road course race
Wrong! But it was close to happening.
Most notably, it was at Indianapolis, where Briscoe ran strong all race and was on the front row for the final restart with Denny Hamlin. Briscoe went wide in turn one and cut the course, earning him a penalty. He would still go on to spin Hamlin and was handed a further penalty, he was parked.
All three of Briscoe's top ten finishes were on road courses, sixth at Austin, sixth at Road America and ninth at Watkins Glen, but none of them were as close to success as Indianapolis.
6. Bubba Wallace gets his career-best Cup championship finish
Correct! Wallace was 21st in the championship, beating his previous best of 22nd. This year was capped off with Wallace's first Cup victory in the October Talladega race when the race was rain-shortened. He had three top five finishes, his most in a single season.
It was not a great season. Wallace did feel like a driver consistently stuck between 13th and 17th every week. His three top five finishes were his only top ten finishes. However, his championship finish is a little diminishing of his actual results. He scored the 19th most points this season, more than race winners Aric Almirola and Michael McDowell, but those two were each gifted a top 16 championship finish, dropping Wallace a few spots.
7. The driver with the most victories makes the Cup final four
Correct! Kyle Larson won nine races and made the final four, and then he won his tenth race of the season in the Phoenix finale, clinching the championship.
Not only did Larson make the final four, but he was the first driver to clinch a spot after winning the first semifinal at Texas and then he followed it with a victory in the next race at Kansas. Larson was the only driver to clinch a spot in the championship race via a victory.
8. At least seven drivers will have multiple Cup victories
Correct! Though this was closer than it appeared to not happening.
The first repeat winner was Martin Truex, Jr., with the second victory at the first Martinsville race in April. Truex also got to three victories before anyone else got to two after he won at Darlington in May. The second repeat winner was Alex Bowman, whose second victory was the week after Truex's third at Dover. Kyle Larson won three consecutive races from the Coca-Cola 600 through Nashville. Kyle Busch made it four repeat winners after his Pocono victory.
On Independence Day, Elliott won at Road America, six races after he won at Austin. There would not be another repeat until Ryan Blaney won the penultimate race of the regular season at Michigan following his March victory at Atlanta.
The seventh repeat winner was in the 30th race of the season when Denny Hamlin won at Las Vegas. Hamlin's first victory was the Southern 500, the first race of the playoffs.
9. At least three drivers win a Grand National Series race and start less than 70% of the races
Correct! To meet this criteria, a driver had to start 23 races or less.
Kyle Busch won all five of his starts. Josh Berry was not full-time, but he did run an expanded schedule, making 22 starts, and he won twice, first at Martinsville in May and then Las Vegas in September. Ty Gibbs won four times in 18 races. John Hunter Nemechek won at Texas in October and made five starts all season. Christopher Bell won at Loudon, one of his two starts.
10. No Grand National Series race winner on the track will be disqualified
Correct! Three-thirty times the driver first on the track ended up first on the final results sheet.
In each of the previous two seasons, there had been at least one race Grand National Series winner disqualified. That streak is broken. None of the Truck race winners were disqualified, as were none of the Cup winners, making 2021 the first year none of the three national series had a race winner failed inspection and lose a victory since NASCAR changed the regulations.
11. At least three Truck drivers that competed in 2020 and missed the playoffs will make the playoffs in 2021
Correct!
John Hunter Nemechek, Stewart Friesen, Chandler Smith and Carson Hocevar all made the playoffs this year after making three starts, 22 starts, 12 starts and seven starts last year.
The inclusion of those four drivers meant Brett Moffitt, who switched his championship eligibility to the Grand National Series in the middle of 2021, Grant Enfinger, who missed only one race in 2021 due to lack of funding, Christian Eckes, who was part-time this season and Tyler Ankrum, who missed the playoffs by 28 points, were the four drivers out of the playoffs from the year before.
12. Both Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers make the Round of Eight in the Truck playoffs
Correct! But it nearly did not happen.
John Hunter Nemechek was the easy one. He won the third race at Las Vegas and then added four more victories. He got out of the first round comfortably, though he did not win a race, but Chandler Smith did it the difficult way. He was technically 11th in points, but made the playoffs because Grant Enfinger missed one race, so the last spot went to Smith.
Smith was 28th and seventh in the first two races of round one at Gateway and Darlington respectively. He was still tenth entering the Bristol cutoff race and he was only 12 points outside advancing. With many of his playoff competitors also at the front in Bristol, Smith had to win, and he did, his first in the Truck series. This got both KBM truck into round two.
Eleven out of 12! And the only one incorrect was on Chase Briscoe. Either I am really good, or these predictions were not ambitious enough. But you never really know about predictions. There are certain things you are certain will happen that do not.
I bet everyone thought Kevin Harvick would win at least one race this season and he had none. Going from nine to zero, especially with no change in team or regulations, does not seem sensible. No one could have reasonable predicted Harvick would have no victories. It is one thing to have predicted he would have won three races or fewer, but zero? That was not practical this time a year ago.
Some years you have it. I will take it.
