Jacques Villeneuve won the first race of the NASCAR Euro Series weekend from Vallelunga on Saturday despite having a five-second penalty for jumping the start. It was Villeneuve's first victory in 13 years, five months and 19 days. His last victory was the 2008 1000km of Spa driving a Peugeot with Nicolas Minassian and Marc Gené. It is only Villeneuve's second victory since his final grand prix victory, the Luxembourg Grand Prix at the Nürburgring on September 28, 1997. The FIA World Endurance Championship had its first race since the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Super Formula ended with a dead rubber. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.
How Good Has Kyle Larson Been This Season?
We are staring down the final race of the NASCAR Cup Series season this upcoming Sunday at Phoenix. Through 35 races, Kyle Larson has stood above every other driver competing in 2021. Larson has led the way in victories, top five finishes, top ten finishes and laps led. Historic accomplishments have been a regular thing for him this year.
Away from NASCAR, Larson has won the Chili Bowl, the Kings Royal and the Knoxville Nationals, arguably the three biggest dirt races in the United States.
Taking everything into consideration, no one has come close to matching what Larson has done this season but looking solely at NASCAR and all the praise Larson has received, I thought I would look at how good Larson has been. Mostly because I feel like we have seen recent drivers have similar success compared to Larson. There have been one or two dominant drivers who have been above the rest, but how does Larson in 2021 stack up?
Establishing where we stand heading into the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series finale. Larson has won nine races this season with notable victories in the Coca-Cola 600, three road course events (Sonoma, Watkins Glen and Charlotte) and he won the Bristol night race. He has 19 top five finishes and 25 top ten finishes. At Kansas, the antepenultimate race of the season, Larson ended the day with 2,397 laps led, which broke the record for laps led in a 36-race season, the Cup Series' regular race total since 2001. After Martinsville, Larson has led 2,474 laps.
Twice this season has Larson had a three-race winning streak. He was the first driver to win three consecutive races twice in a season since Dale Earnhardt in 1987.
But how does Larson compare to other drivers in this playoff-era of NASCAR?
Nine victories are the same total Kevin Harvick had last season, though Harvick did not make the championship race and was classified fifth in the final standings. Harvick also had 20 top five finishes and 27 top ten finishes.
In 2019, Martin Truex, Jr. led the way with seven victories, but Denny Hamlin led in top five finishes with 19. Both Truex and Hamlin had 24 top ten finishes, but it was champion Kyle Busch who had the most top ten finishes, 27 to be exact, five of which were victories and he had 17 top five finishes.
Harvick and Busch each won eight races in 2018 with Harvick leading in top five finishes with 23, one more than Busch, and Harvick had 29 top ten finishes to Busch's 28, but the championship went to Joey Logano, who only won three races, had 13 top five finishes and 26 top ten finishes.
The most recent champion with the most victories was Truex in 2017. The New Jerseyan won eight races with 19 top five finishes and 26 top ten finishes.
The 2016 season was quite balanced. Jimmie Johnson took the championship leading the Cup Series with five victories, but he only had 11 top five finishes and 16 top ten finishes. Kyle Busch led in top five finishes with 17, but he ended up third in the championship. Harvick led in top ten finishes with 27, but he finished eighth.
Busch famously won the 2015 championship despite missing 11 races due to an injury. Busch did win five races with 12 top five finishes and 16 top ten finishes. Logano led with six victories and was tied for most top ten finishes with Harvick, each with 28. Harvick led with 23 top five finishes.
Harvick might have taken the 2014 championship with five victories, 14 top five finishes and 20 top ten finishes, but Brad Keselowski had the most victories (six) and top five finishes (17), and Jeff Gordon had the most top ten finishes (23).
Larson is the first driver with nine victories since Carl Edwards in 2008. Edwards was second in the championship that season, behind Johnson, who won seven races. Edwards had 19 top five finishes and 27 top ten finishes while Johnson had 15 top five finishes and 22 top ten finishes.
The numbers are similar, slightly better in some areas for Larson, but still similar. And yet this season feels different. It does feel like Larson has done more, and yet the deeper you go, the more it looks the same.
His laps led total does stand out. It isn't particularly fair to compare laps led because more races mean more laps to lead and the 2021 season is different as we have more road course races, which are run with fewer laps. You cannot look at the raw numbers but rather percentage of laps led. Through 35 races, Larson had led 2,474 of 8,888 laps, 27.835% of all laps run.
It is the highest percentage of laps led since Rusty Wallace in 1993 and Larson's percentage of laps led is the 11th highest in a single season in NASCAR's modern era, dating back to 1972. Through the first 49 seasons of the modern era, the average for the highest percentage of laps led in a season has been 21.734%. Larson is nearly seven-percentage points higher than that. Since Wallace in 1993, only three other times has a driver led more than 21.734% of the laps in a season, Jeff Gordon in 1995 and 1996 and Harvick in 2015. The average of highest percentage of laps led in a season from 1994-2020 drops to 17.476% compared to entire modern era.
A championship would put Larson in an esteemed category of champions. It would be more than a championship. He could become the first champion with at least ten victories since Jimmie Johnson in 2007 and just the tenth with double-digit victories in the modern era. Outside of NASCAR, it has already been a historic year. Combining his success at the Knoxville Nationals, Chili Bowl and other dirt racing competitions to his NASCAR accomplishments and Larson is in a category all on his own. No one has done what Larson has done this year and that elevates his Cup achievements. Some numbers might not be different from other drivers in recent years, but those numbers combined with winning other famed races outside of NASCAR has Larson above the rest.
Now he must finish the year with a Cup championship. The 2021 season will always be remembered as a great year for Kyle Larson, regardless if he wins the Cup championship or not, but the Cup championship will make this season more memorable. If Larson falls short, there will be some hollowness to this season as his name will be missing from a key line in the history book.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jacques Villeneueve, but did you know...
Alex Bowman won the NASCAR Cup race from Martinsville, his fourth victory of the season. Noah Gragson won the Grand National Series race, his third victory of the season. Zane Smith won the Truck race, his first victory of the season.
Anton de Pasquale won the bookend races of the first Supercars weekend from Sydney Motorsports Park. Championship leader Shane van Gisbergen won the middle race.
The #7 Toyota of Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and José María López won the 6 Hours of Bahrain, its third consecutive victory. The #31 Team WRT Oreca-Gibson of Robin Frijns, Ferdinand Habsburg and Charles Milesi won in the LMP2 class, its second consecutive victory. The #92 Porsche of Kévin Estre and Neel Jani won in the GTE-Pro class, its third victory of the season. The #33 TF Sport Aston Martin of Ben Keating, Dylan Pereira and Felipe Fraga won in the GTE-Am class.
Nirei Fukuzumi won the Super Formula race from Suzuka, his second victory of the season.
Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR finale from Phoenix.
Formula One's Mexican Grand Prix.
MotoGP's penultimate round from Portimão.
The FIA World Endurance Championship ends its season with an eight-hour race in Bahrain.
Supercars has week two from Sydney Motorsports Park.
World Touring Car Cup visits a reconfigured and longer Adria International Raceway.
