Three practice days are behind us ahead of the 106th Indianapolis 500. Now it is time for qualifying.
There have been a few surprises at the top of the time charts, but the usual suspects are still around. With 6,816 practice laps run over the three days, we have learned a lot about the 33 entries for this year's race. We have some idea about who is a player for pole position, who is in contention to make the Fast 12 and who is thankful a 34th entry never materialized.
Where does everyone lay entering this weekend and what is in store for the next two days? We will set the picture for Indianapolis 500 qualifications.
Who is in Play for the Fast 12?
Takuma Sato topped all three practice days. The two-time Indianapolis 500 winner is looking to qualify in the top 12 for the fifth time in his 13th Indianapolis 500 attempt and Sato has looked quick the entire week. It isn't just Sato. David Malukas has the fourth-best average practice result at 5.667.
Sato's no tow times were not spectacular the first two days in 11th and 29th, but he led the no tow report on Friday. Malukas was fifth on the no tow report on Tuesday and seventh on Friday. Malukas' average no tow result is 11th, putting him tenth in the ranking.
Alexander Rossi was in the top ten of the no tow report all three days and his average of fifth has him with the best ranking. The only other driver in the top ten of the no tow report all three days was Scott McLaughlin, who tied Rinus VeeKay for the second best average no tow result at 6.667. VeeKay topped the no tow report on Tuesday and was second on Wednesday behind Will Power. Scott Dixon had the fourth best no tow ranking at 7.667, just ahead of Power's average of eighth.
Ed Carpenter was second and third in the no tow report the first two days, the only driver besides Rossi and VeeKay in the top five for multiple days.
In terms of overall practice position, Dixon was in the top five all three days, ending up second, second and fifth. Marcus Ericsson had the third best average of fifth, and Ericsson was fourth on the no tow report Tuesday and Friday with a 24th-place from Thursday sandwiched in-between.
Sage Karam did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday, but he was sixth on Thursday and 13th on Friday. Josef Newgarden's no tow reports results were 14th, seventh and tenth. Arrow McLaren SP had encouraging overall practice results. Felix Rosenqvist and Patricio O'Ward ranked sixth and seventh respectively in average overall practice result. O'Ward was 11th in average no tow report ranking, and he was third in Friday's no tow report. Rosenqvist was sixth on Friday's no tow report, but he was 15th or worse the other two days.
Tony Kanaan was eighth on Friday's no tow report, while Álex Palou was 12th and earlier in the week Palou was eighth on Tuesday's no tow report. Jimmie Johnson was third on Tuesday's no tow report, but he was 23rd and 19th the next two days. Johnson did brush the wall in Friday practice, but the crew repaired the car and Johnson was able to make a run late in the day. Johnson did have the fifth best average overall practice ranking at 8.333 after being third and fifth the first two days.
Who is glad there isn't a 34th entry?
Stefan Wilson was 33rd overall the first two days and then 27th on Friday. Wilson' no tow results were 26th, 32nd and 27th, the worst average in the no tow ranking.
Juan Pablo Montoya is only slightly better than Wilson, but his three overall results were 31st, 25th and 32nd. Montoya ranked 32nd in the average no tow result at 26.5, only registering no tow laps on Tuesday and Friday.
A.J. Foyt Racing is a tad of a concern. Kyle Kirkwood's overall results were 26th, 19th and 29th. Kirkwood did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday but was 18th and 28th on Thursday and Friday. Dalton Kellett's average no tow result was 24.667 while J.R. Hildebrand's was 26th, only ahead of Montoya and Wilson.
For a team that historically has had poor qualifying runs, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing probably wished things went better. Graham Rahal failed to break into the top 20 overall on any of the three practice days, and his average overall practice result was 24th, placing him 29th in the ranking. Jack Harvey and Christian Lundgaard were tied for 26th in average overall practice result ranking with Romain Grosjean. Lundgaard was 27th or worse on two of three days while Harvey was 25th or worse on two of three days.
In terms of no tow report, Rahal ranked 23rd with an average no tow result of 19.667 while Lundgaard was 26th at 22.667 and Harvey was 30th at 25.333.
The driver with the third worst average overall practice result was Colton Herta. He was 28th, 16th and 33rd over the three days, averaging 25.667. Friday's windy weather did alter how much running each team did, and Herta's no tow results were a little more encouraging. He was 16th and tenth on the first two practice days. Romain Grosjean was 14th on Friday's no tow report, but he was 24th and 31st the first two days, leaving him 28th in the no tow ranking.
Who is in the middle?
Simon Pagenaud was tenth in average overall practice result and Marco Andretti was ranked 11th. Pagenaud was 13th, ninth and 21st over the three days. Andretti was 11th, 15th and 18th. However, on the no tow report, neither Pagenaud nor Andretti cracked the top ten on any of the three days.
Conor Daly was 17th, 18th and 14th overall on each of the three days. Daly did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday, but he was eighth on Thursday's no tow report and 20th on Friday's no tow report.
Hélio Castroneves might have had the second most consistent lap week behind Takuma Sato. Castroneves was 22nd, 22nd and 19th in the three overall standings. He did not register a no tow lap on Tuesday but was 12th and 16th the next two days.
Who Has Not Yet Been Mentioned?
Callum Ilott, Devlin DeFrancesco and Santino Ferrucci.
Ilott ranks tied for 22nd in average overall practice result with Castroneves, but he ranks 19th for average no tow result.
DeFrancesco was ninth on Thursday's no tow report, but he was 22nd and 25th the other two days, just behind Ilott but just ahead of Herta.
Ferrucci was 19th, 26th and 26th overall on each of the three practice days. He didn't register a no tow report lap on Tuesday, but was 18th and 26th the final two days. Ferrucci's starting position in his three Indianapolis 500 starts were 23rd, 19th and 23rd.
What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?
Last year, eight of the Fast Nine drivers made it on their first qualifying attempt. Of those nine drivers, four were within the first eight qualifiers. Scott Dixon was the first car out, Ryan Hunter-Reay was third out, Hélio Castroneves was fourth to the racetrack and Tony Kanaan was eighth out.
The other four drivers that made it based on their first qualifying run were Ed Carpenter, who was the 19th car out, the 27th car out in Álex Palou, Colton Herta, who was two after Palou in 29th in line, and Marcus Ericsson was 31st car to make a run.
The only Fast Nine participant that improved on a second attempt to make it was Rinus VeeKay, who was 12th after his first run at 230.841 mph, the tenth attempt through the line. VeeKay's second run averaged 231.483 mph and put him fifth fastest among the day one speeds.
Last year, there were 51 completed qualifying attempts and another eight that were waved off. Thirteen drivers completed multiple attempts, and of those 13 drivers, seven improved on their qualifying speed, but one of those was Will Power, who improved but his time was still not good enough to make the top 30, and another was Josef Newgarden, whose time improved, but his position remained the same.
Only two teams made three attempts on Saturday last year, Simona de Silvestro, who ended up participating in the Last Row shootout, and Stefan Wilson, whose subsequent two qualifying attempts did not improve on his first time set.
What is the Qualifying Order?
Chevrolet controls the early portion of qualifying and Patricio O'Ward will lead the field out onto the track. Rinus VeeKay follows before Callum Ilott and Felix Rosenqvist. The next three qualifiers will be the Hondas of Romain Grosjean, Jimmie Johnson and Devlin DeFrancesco. Four of the seven rookies are in the first seven qualifiers.
One-offs J.R. Hildebrand and Juan Pablo Montoya will follow the string of rookies before Takuma Sato and Marco Andretti round out the first third of the qualifying line. Graham Rahal makes it two consecutive famous last names in the qualifying order before Tony Kanaan hits the track. David Malukas will be the 14th qualifier before Santino Ferrucci and Colton Herta.
The middle qualifier will be Stefan Wilson ahead of the Ganassi pair of Scott Dixon and Álex Palou. Conor Daly is 20th before Hélio Castroneves, and the first Team Penske qualifier will be Scott McLaughlin, rounding out the second third of the line.
Ed Carpenter is 23rd in line ahead of Alexander Rossi, Marcus Ericsson, Jack Harvey and Sage Karam. Josef Newgarden is the next Penske qualifier in 28th. Christian Lundgaard and Simon Pagenaud round out the first 30 qualifiers. Kyle Kirkwood is the final rookie in the line in 31st. Will Power and Dalton Kellett round out the line.
What is the Weather Forecast?
Thunderstorms threaten Saturday's on-track action. There is an 80% chance of precipitation with chances increasing around 2:00 p.m. ET, three hour into the qualifying session. It is forecasted to rain from that time until 5:00 a.m. Sunday. The forecasted high on Saturday is 82º F. Winds will start out from the Southwest at 11 mph.
Temperatures will drop into Sunday with the rain. The high temperature will remain 64º F under overcast skies. The winds will be moving North Northwest at around 12 mph.
What happens if it rains Saturday?
It all comes down to whether or not the entire field has at least had the chance at a qualifying attempt.
If IndyCar gets through the entire qualifying line on Saturday then Saturday's session is official and whatever the top 12 is should the session reach its finishing time or is concluded early due to weather will advance into tomorrow's session.
For Saturday qualifying, if a team pulls out of line, misses its place in line, waves off an attempt or does not complete an attempt for any variety of reasons, it will still count as an attempt through the qualifying line. If only 30 cars have completed a qualifying attempt once they have reached the end of the qualifying line and the other three cars did not complete a four-lap run because they chose not to or had an accident, the session will still be considered official.
If rain interrupts the qualifying line and not every car has had an attempt then all the times will be taken off the board and another chance at qualifying will take place Sunday morning or early afternoon before hopefully completing the Fast 12 format at its scheduled time.
What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
Due to the impending weather, the morning practice has been shortened to a 60-minute session starting at 8:30 a.m. ET on Saturday with the field split into two groups. Group A will take the first 30 minutes and Group B will have the track for the second 30 minutes.
Day one qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. and run through 5:50 p.m. The top 12 drivers at the end of the first qualifying day will advance to the Fast 12 session. Since there are only 33 entries, positions tenth through 33rd at the end of Saturday will be locked in the field and their starting position will be final. Rows four through 11 on the grid will be set.
Sunday begins with a 90-minute practice session at 12:30 p.m. for the Fast 12 drivers. The Fast 12 session will begin at 4:00 p.m. ET. After the 12 cars have run, the fastest six will advance to the final round of qualifying, which will immediately follow the Fast 12 session.
On Monday, there will be a two-hour practice session for the entire field at 1:00 p.m.
