Over a third of the field makes the next round of qualifying. If you cannot be in the top third then you deserve a shot at pole position.
With that said, Rinus VeeKay showed Ed Carpenter Racing has pace again and in what will be his third Indianapolis 500 start, VeeKay is ready to lead this team. He is already a race winner and has a good record of top ten finishes. The second half of 2021 was concerning, and we still need to see a full season from him, but outside of a testing accident before the start of the 2021 season we haven't seen VeeKay put a wheel wrong at Indianapolis.
He has had a few pit lane errors, but the raw pace is there and heading into Sunday VeeKay is the favorite for pole position.
2. We must take a moment to talk about the speed. 233.655 mph for VeeKay, the third fastest Indianapolis 500 qualifying attempt ever! He is behind only Arie Luyendyk and Scott Brayton. How about that for company? Is that good enough for you?
I have been dreaming of this day. As much as I would love to hear "it's a new track record" again, I am happy they are back in the ballpark. Anything over 230 mph is impressive. For years when IndyCar kept the revs down during Honda's period as sole engine supplier, we only saw speeds in the mid-220s. Maybe someone would get over 227 mph or 228 mph, but it wasn't as exhilarating.
For too long people tried to sell 226 or 227 as being good enough. It was still fast, and as long as it was close for pole position, who cares what the speed is?
Those people can eat it. The last few years we have seen the cars on the ragged edge. The already minuscule margin for error shrunk that much more and it is clearer who has it and who doesn't.
We may never hear "it's a new track record" again, but we also need to recognize how absurd Arie Luydenyk's run in 1996 was. He was nearly three miles per hour clear of the field that year. No one was flirting with 235 mph let alone 236 mph at that time. We can live in the 233 zip code and flirt with 234 mph. This is good enough.
3. Arrow McLaren SP are there as well. Patricio O'Ward was second at 233.037 mph. Felix Rosenqvist ran a 232.775 mph four-lap average in third. Both these cars looked good in practice. I think we felt more confident O'Ward would be there considering Rosenqvist hasn't had a great month of May yet in his career.
O'Ward is just another part of this youth movement. We see it with VeeKay on top. O'Ward has generally been considered more successful that VeeKay of the young drivers, and rightfully so. O'Ward has won more races and had better championship finishes. We cannot forget Colton Herta is also a part of this group. Someone is going to breakthrough and win this race first. VeeKay could still become the youngest winner. O'Ward can no longer become the youngest winner but he could become second. It is lining up for the youngest winner or one of the youngest winners to happen.
As for Rosenqvist, he has been in funk for the last two-plus years, but in 2022 we are seeing pace out of him everywhere in qualifying. It is there, it just has to click. You don't accidentally run 232.775 mph. But it has to click soon.
4. It felt like the Chevrolets were better, but when you look at the next three positions and see three Chip Ganassi Racing entries, I think it is more balanced despite Chevrolet taking the top three. Álex Palou was 0.0007 seconds off Rosenqvist in fourth. Tony Kanaan hit 232.625 mph and Jimmie Johnson was at 232.398 mph.
Ganassi has looked great since the April test. We will cover the rest of the Ganassi cars in a moment, but it is no surprise all five made the Fast 12. It was setting up that way since the first laps of the year were run around this 2.5-mile oval. Palou isn't as young as VeeKay, O'Ward and Herta but Palou has been toward the top in all three years he has visited the speedway.
Kanaan still has it. There is something fitting about him being quick again. He is reminding us about the veteran know how and perhaps this will be his year for a second. We cannot rule it out after Takuma Sato won his second and Hélio Castroneves got his fourth.
Credit to Johnson after brushing the wall yesterday to get back out there and nail his qualifying run. He wasn't spooked, and he had every right to be.
Let's just get the other two Ganassi cars out of the way. Marcus Ericsson was eighth at 232.275 mph. Scott Dixon was tenth at 232.151 mph. Ericsson and Dixon were both later qualifiers. If Dixon had gone earlier I think he cracks the top three. The same could be said for Palou considering Palou went immediately after Dixon. Ganassi should get a car on the front row tomorrow.
5. Ed Carpenter was seventh at 232.397 mph. That feels about right.
6. The lone Andretti Autosport participant in the Fast 12 will be Romain Grosjean. Who had that? Grosjean was eighth at 232.201 mph. Andretti Autosport is all over the map, but we will focus on Grosjean here. He was quiet all of practice. He never put up a significant time that grabbed your attention. He was confident about his qualifying pace though, and it showed today, but I think the sixth spot in the qualifying line was in his favor. If he went out where Alexander Rossi went out I think there is a good chance Grosjean would have fallen on the outside.
7. Will Power will be the lone Team Penske participant in the Fast 12. Power ran 231.842 mph over four laps. The Penske cars are quick. Josef Newgarden just missed out and Scott McLaughlin made what was the wrong decision in hindsight to withdraw his time, losing what would have been a row five spot, only to go slower and end up 26th. These result do not flatter the Penske organization, but I expect all these cars to go forward on race day. Hell, Power has a chance to improve his starting position and make his job easier tomorrow.
8. Takuma Sato got the final Fast 12 spot by the skin of his teeth after what was an eventful day for the two-time Indianapolis 500 winner.
Sato's first attempt was 232.196 mph. He would have been tenth after the first run through the qualifying line. But Sato made a bonehead error and stayed on the racetrack on his cool down lap in turns three and four. He impeded Marco Andretti, who was on his out lap. IndyCar penalized Sato and took his time off the board, forcing Sato to qualify again.
It was the right choice. I don't know why Sato missed the access road on the inside of the turns. It has been there the entire time Sato has been at Indianapolis. Mistakes happen, but this was nearly costly, and I don't think Sato did a great job staying out of the way. I would have been fine if IndyCar parked Sato for the rest of qualifying. He is going to be in the field no matter what. It wouldn't have been a case of preventing him from making the race, but that type of mistake shouldn't happen.
Anyway, Sato had to qualify again, and he brushed the wall exiting turn two on his final qualifying lap, but still completed the run and wound up 12th at 231.708 mph. Dale Coyne Racing has some speed. Sato bumped out David Malukas, who was respectable at 231.607 mph.
I think pole position is a stretch for Sato since he will be first out tomorrow, but never say never with this guy.
9. Let's run through some of the rows. Row four will be Malukas, Newgarden and Santino Ferrucci, who quietly gets his best Indianapolis 500 starting position.
Row six will be Simon Pagenaud, J.R. Hildebrand and Conor Daly. Pagenaud has been solidly in the middle all week. Hildebrand again is the top Foyt qualifier at Indianapolis, and he has been stout each day. Daly didn't have a great draw, but he was three spots ahead of Carpenter and Carpenter made the Fast 12. The weak link is clear.
Callum Ilott has been good all week. I am not sure Ilott could ask for a better first experience. He qualified 19th. He hasn't had his hands full once. He has a lot to learn, and it is a long race, but he is comfortable driving for a small team. That is a good start for him.
Alexander Rossi was 20th and will start in the middle of row seven. Andretti Autosport hasn't been as dialed in the last two years at Indianapolis. Rossi had a tough draw again, and his first attempt had him 15th at 231.341 mph. He went the wrong way on his second run when the track wasn't in better conditions. He was only at 230.812 mph. If Rossi was sixth in the line like Grosjean, I think he makes the Fast 12, but Ganassi showed you can qualify anywhere and make the Fast 12. Power was the penultimate qualifier and he made it. Andretti just doesn't have it.
Graham Rahal was 21st and the best Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry. Its qualifying woes continue.
Nazareth natives Sage Karam and Marco Andretti start next to each other on row eight with Devlin DeFrancesco.
10. Let's give Colton Herta his own section, because he wound up 25th, but lost an engine as he was heading out for his first qualifying attempt. Herta hasn't look phenomenal this week. The Fast 12 might have always been out of reach, but I think Herta was better than 25th today if everything had gone to plan. All the Andretti cars have work to do. Last year, Herta and Rossi started at the front and went backward. Ryan Hunter-Reay was in the top five at the time of his final pit stop but sped entering pit lane. Someone 2022 is shaping up to be worse than 2021 for Andretti Autosport and we are still over a week to race day.
11. We touched upon Scott McLaughlin, but he had to qualify again because he was in the priority lane where teams re-qualify after withdrawing a time. McLaughlin joined that lane prior to a rain shower. The rains came and delayed the session for a bit. If the session had not restarted, McLaughlin would have kept his time of 231.543 mph. Since it did restart, McLaughlin had to qualify because once you join the line the time is withdrawn.
However, with how the track changes after a rainstorm, I don't think teams should be forced to take to the track. I understand IndyCar doesn't want teams taking spots in the priority line only to remove the car once it gets to the front. But let's be realistic and fair here. If you make plans to qualify and then rain hits, the track is no longer the same. Rain should be a reset. The conditions have changed the track. Sage Karam was ahead of McLaughlin in line and Newgarden was behind those two. Karam improved on the second attempt, but McLaughlin didn't. Newgarden caught a break because the rain returned when he hit the track.
Newgarden got the break and McLaughlin had to pay. I don't think that is fair.
12. Hélio Castroneves had a moment on his first qualifying run and had to go again. Castroneves has not shown great speed and he will start 27th. Neither Kyle Kirkwood nor Dalton Kellett have looked great this month and they will started 28th and 29th respectively. Juan Pablo Montoya will be 30th.
13. There will be two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entries on row 11: Christian Lundgaard and Jack Harvey. RLLR again is lost in qualifying. This is a habit for this group. Even if there was the pressure of bumping, I still think both these cars would have been in trouble. Neither has looked threatening this week, and this comes down to the team. I am concerned RLLR has spread itself too think with three cars.
14. Stefan Wilson will get the dubious honor of becoming the fifth driver since time trials decided the Indianapolis 500 field to make the race with an official qualifying speed of 0.000 mph. Ralph Mulford was the first in 1920, Jack Curtner was second in 1922, Alex Tagliani did complete a four-lap run in 2016 on Saturday, but that is when everyone had to re-qualify for their official starting position on Sunday and Tagliani had an accident in that Sunday session, meaning he started 33rd because he did not complete a run, and in 2017, James Davison started 33rd after taking over Sébastien Bourdais' car due to Bourdais' broken pelvis from his Saturday qualifying accident.
Why did Wilson not complete a run? The team mixed up second and third gear when assembling the gearbox and the team had to do a complete rebuild. I will be honest, if there were more than 33 cars, I think you deserve to miss the race if you cannot put a gearbox together right the first time. I know this program was thrown together late, and DragonSpeed is proving the personnel last minute and after running a sports car race last weekend, but that is embarrassing.
15. I want to go over the qualifying line real quick. The top 11 cars all made it based on their first qualifying run. Here are where those cars drew in the qualifying line:
VeeKay: 2nd
O'Ward: 1st
Rosenqvist: 4th
Palou: 19th
Kanaan: 13th
Johnson: 6th
Carpenter: 23rd
Ericsson: 25th
Grosjean: 5th
Dixon: 18th
Power: 32nd
Sato was the only driver to take two attempts to make the Fast 12, and that was only after his brain fade and caused his time to be nullified. It was all moot because Sato's first time would have been good enough and he was the tenth qualifier.
Five of the first six qualifiers made the Fast 12. Only Callum Ilott missed. I know it is a random draw, and there were still five drivers that made it who were in the second half of the draw, but for the second year in a row it felt like if you drew early you had a great shot of making it and didn't have to run the risk of qualifying again.
I do not expect the Indianapolis 500 qualifying draw to change, but I think an argument could be made. At all the other oval events, the qualifying order is the inverse of the entrants' championship standings. In this case, doing that in reverse might be a disservice, but I don't think the championship should determine the order for Indianapolis 500 qualifying. We have enough practice to set the grid. I am not sure if combined practice results should determine the order, fastest practice lap gets first in the line.
It would be fairer, and we also have to recognize this isn't like qualifying 25 years ago. Not everyone made a qualifying attempt on pole day in the 1980s or 1990s. You didn't have 33 cars lined up to qualify on day one in 1995. In 1995, only 19 cars completed a pole day run. In 1993, only 15 cars completed a qualifying run on pole day. The qualifying line was shorter. There were more teams passing over attempting a pole day run.
In 2022, everyone has to go on day one. You cannot wait until the track opens up. It never does. Remember when the track would open for practice when no one was in the qualifying line? That is not happening ever again under the current format.
Qualifying itself has changed drastically over the last 15 years let alone the last 25 or 30 years. I think it is worth a discussion about changes to deciding the qualifying order.
16. How do we look for tomorrow? Temperature will go down. It will have rained and washed all the rubber from the track. There will be a practice session early tomorrow. I am not sure why anyone would make a run. That is too risky in my book. The speeds are going to be incredible either way. I wasn't expecting 233 mph at the start of the week. I was ready to be in the 231-range again. There are plenty of big boppers ready to go tomorrow. I don't think we get a 234-mph average, but there is a good chance making the Fast Six will require something close to 233 mph and the top time could surpass what VeeKay accomplished today.
