We are in the heat of summer. Days are getting shorter. Eleven Formula One races have been completed. Eleven more races remain.
With new regulations, the first half of the 2022 season has been interesting. There is a good battle at the top of the grid where reliability and emotions remain a question mark. It is a battle-tested side against a historic organization in the midst of 15 years of ineptitude. And then there are eight other teams scratching for relevancy.
Much has happened this season, but with the teams constantly developing these cars it doesn't feel like the results of the first half of the season has written in stone how the second half will play out, especially with the overhanging budget cap concerns that should play out over the later rounds.
Before we move into the second half of 2022, we should look at what has happened so far.
Where are we now?
Through 11 races, the driver that ended the 2021 season as the championship leader is still the championship leader, but it hasn't been as straightforward as that.
Max Verstappen leads the championship with 208 points and Verstappen has won six of 11 races this season, though he did not take the championship lead until the Spanish Grand Prix, the sixth race of the season.
Thirty-eight points behind Verstappen is Charles Leclerc, the winner of the most recent Formula One race. Lecelerc has three victories, the only other driver with multiple victories this season, and he led the championship for the first five races.
Behind Leclerc is Sergio Pérez, 19 points off the Monegasque driver. Pérez won at Monaco and he has five podium finishes this year. Carlos Sainz, Jr. scored his first grand prix victory at Silverstone, and Sainz, Jr. is 18 points behind Pérez as Red Bull and Ferrari alternate the top four in the drivers' championship. Sainz, Jr. has six podium finishes, the second most this season behind only Verstappen.
George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are fifth and sixth in the championship respectively. Russell is on 128 points, 19 points more than Hamilton.
There is a 45-point drop from Hamilton to Lando Norris in seventh. Meanwhile 45 points covers Norris in seventh down to Kevin Magnussen in 11th with Esteban Ocon, Valtteri Bottas and Fernando Alonso also covered with that blanket.
Daniel Ricciardo has 17 points in 12th in the championship but six points cover Ricciardo, Pierre Gasly, Sebastian Vettel, Mick Schumacher and Yuki Tsunoda. Zhou Guanyu has five points. Alexander Albon and Lance Stroll each have three points. Nicholas Latifi has zero points and, in case you forgot, Nico Hülkenberg scored zero points in his two starts substituting for Sebastian Vettel in the opening two rounds while Vettel had COVID.
How is the championship battle?
Highly plausible.
It could have been much better if Ferrari had better strategy and fewer mechanical problems.
Leclerc left Miami up 19 points on Verstappen. Then he lost his turbo charger while leading in Spain, Ferrari botched the pit strategy at Monaco and cost Leclerc a podium result, a power unit expired in Azerbaijan, which sent him to the back of the grid for Montreal and then Ferrari failed to bring him in for tires under a late safety car at Silverstone, which dropped him from first to fourth once the checkered flag was waved.
Even if you just flip Spain, Monaco and Great Britain, that is 41 points in Leclerc's favor. Verstappen would drop ten points in such circumstances and we could be looking at Leclerc up 13 points at this point in the season instead of trailing by 38 points, a 52-point swing.
The championship will come down to if Ferrari is able to put Leclerc in the right positions and keep him there. The car has the speed. He won four consecutive pole positions and won none of those races. In those races alone, Verstappen outscored Leclerc 91 points to 30 points.
In the last three races, it has been Verstappen with a 58-54 advantage. After the first four races it was Leclerc up 86-59.
They are pretty even but Leclerc has to be better regularly over the remainder of the season. Thirty-eight points is far from insurmountable, but Verstappen and Red Bull are going to win at least four races. That is 100 points. Verstappen will likely at least match his 208-point output in the second half of the season. Leclerc will need to score 247 points in the final 11 races to beat Verstappen if that is the case, averaging 22.45 points per race.
Can Leclerc be near flawless? There have been too many errors to think he can be that good, and while Red Bull had its gremlins early in the season, it has escaped those in the races for the most part since the Australian Grand Prix.
It is really a two-horse race. Pérez isn't going to climb up and fight Verstappen for the title. Ferrari needs to prioritize a driver and that should be the one currently on top.
Someone is Missing
That would be Mercedes and specifically Lewis Hamilton.
It has been a difficult season for the German manufacture as it battle development issues and severe porpoising for much of the first half of the season. Recent changes have made the Mercedes more manageable and it has been quicker. It hasn't been entirely out of the discussion but it was mostly a distant third and ready to scoop up any opportunity prior to the last few races.
Russell is 80 points behind Verstappen. Hamilton is 99 points back.
Is there any hope Mercedes can win this championship? It would have to be perfect. I am talking 11 victories from 11 races. If Russell were to do that, Verstappen would only need 196 points to be champion. If Hamilton were to do it, that number would decrease to 176 points for the Dutchman.
I think Mercedes is going to win races in the second half of the season. Enough improvements will be made that it will have its day and take points from both Red Bull and Ferrari.
In the Constructors' Championship it is Red Bull leading on 359 points, Ferrari on 303 points and Mercedes on 237 points. That is 122 points covering the top three. Of these three teams. Mercedes has the fewest retirements, one and that was Russell's accident on the opening lap at Silverstone. Red Bull has had five retirements and Ferrari has had six.
Mercedes could split Red Bull and Ferrari, but there is a chance that Mercedes could improve enough while maintaining reliability that it could steal the Constructors' Championship. The odds are slim but it is more likely than either Mercedes driver winning the drivers' championship.
Are things really more competitive with the new regulations?
Through 11 races in 2021, here are how podium finishes were broken via manufactures:
Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari: 27
The other seven teams: 6
And through 11 races in 2020:
Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari: 28
The other seven teams: 5
How does it look through 11 races in 2022?
Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari: 32
The other seven teams: 1
We are right back to where we were in 2019. In 2019, through 11 races, the only podium finish not from those three teams was Daniil Kvyat in a wet German Grand Prix driving for Toro Rosso.
In 2022, the only podium finish not from those three teams was Lando Norris for McLaren at Imola.
Red Bull and Ferrari have combined to win every race. The top three teams all have over 200 points. The other seven teams all have 81 points or fewer! There are 156 points between Mercedes in third and McLaren and Alpine tied for fourth! Williams is closer to McLaren than McLaren is to Mercedes based on points.
However, the argument is it is more competitive in the middle of the field. Eight teams have had a top five finisher this season and Aston Martin was close with Sebastian Vettel finishing sixth at Azerbaijan. Six manufactures are represented in the top ten of the drivers' championship. One of those is Alfa Romeo's Valtteri Bottas.
Alfa Romeo has 51 points. Its best points total since returning to Formula One was 57 points in 2019, Alfa Romeo's first season back on the grid. Haas has 34 points, its third most points total and it is only halfway through its seven Formula One season. It only needs 14 more points to have its second most prolific season.
The competition isn't there at the top. Any hope of McLaren, Alpine or AlphaTauri sneaking onto the front row and possibly pulling out a podium or being in position to steal a race victory should the big teams hit trouble at once isn't there. It doesn't feel like that will change much over the final 11 races.
Who is most disappointed?
It would be easy to say Mercedes because it hasn't won in the first 11 races, but that group appears to have things point in the correct direction and still comfortably in the top three of the championship.
For a team that is fourth in the Constructors' Championship and is the only team in the bottom seven to have a podium finish, McLaren seems the most disappointed. They aren't as close as they were the last two years. Danial Ricciardo isn't producing to the level expected from him. Considering McLaren only picked up its first victory in nearly a decade last year, fourth in the championship shouldn't be a bad thing, but it felt the Woking-based outfit was ready to be a regular contender again and it hasn't quite made it back to that level.
Who is most encouraged?
We touched upon Alfa Romeo and Haas and both should be encouraged.
Bottas is regularly in the points and batting another big name driver. Haas hit a rut over spring time, but Kevin Magnussen has shown great pace in the car and Mick Schumacher just had the best two races of his career.
But in a strange way I think Williams should be one of the most encouraged teams on the grid. It only has three points, but Alexander Albon has performed exceptionally well with finishes of 12th or better in five races and he s ahead of Lance Stroll in the championship, albeit on tiebreaker, but still. Albon has made it out of Q1 on three occasions, not to forget mentioning Nicholas Latifi made it to Q3 in the wet at Silverstone.
Williams is still at the bottom of the grid and a distant bottom at that, but it has held its own and had inspiring days so far this season.
Which driver is most stuck in his current situation?
Pierre Gasly!
This is Gasly's sixth Formula One season. He has raced for Toro Rosso/AlphaTauri at some point in all six and he will drive for the organization for a seventh season in 2023.
Remember when this was a development team? Seven years on the vine is long enough. Gasly will turn 27 years old before the start of the next season. Red Bull isn't bringing him back any time soon. Ferrari isn't calling. Mercedes isn't calling. It looks like Alpine isn't going to call on a Frenchman once Alonso retires.
McLaren has about 37 drivers signed for its various programs. Alfa Romeo and Haas would be lateral moves. I am not sure anyone has a clue what Aston Martin is doing other than trying to be a copycat to be successful, and Williams would be a step back.
Gasly is stuck. Realistically, where is he going to go after 2023? Even with his greatest season, he would still end up driving for AlphaTauri for an eighth season. I am not sure what the answer is because as long as AlphaTauri will have him, Gasly should probably stick around. Does he really want to jump into the world of hypercar/LMDh programs at the age of 28? He might win there and earn more respect but it feels like he is anchored to this identity and cannot escape being the best Formula One driver no one wants to give a serious opportunity to.
Who would be suited trying IndyCar in 2023?
Sebastian Vettel isn't going to IndyCar because no one could afford his salary, Vettel has no interest and Aston martin is going to keep him around for at least another season, but if there was ever a driver who needed a breath of fresh air and would enjoy the driving nature of IndyCar it would be Vettel.
Vettel could get into a suitable car and have a great chance of competing for race victories. He notably pointed out to Road America being a proper circuit and he would get a chance to experience it as well as Mid-Ohio, Barber Motorsports Park and Laguna Seca. I think he would appreciate it more than any other driver on the grid, sans Kevin Magnussen who spent 2021 in IMSA and ran a few of those circuits.
I don't think Vettel will ever drive an IndyCar. Past comments make it clear his interest is below zero on competing in IndyCar before, but this is the closest I think he has ever been to considering it because he has done it all in Formula One already. He is a four-time champion and won over 50 grand prix. The last four seasons have been draining. He is unlikely ever going to be in a contender for a race victory ever again and if he were to end up in that situation it would be as a number two driver to a younger talent.
Vettel just turned 35 years old. He could spend the next five years in Formula One, make about $50 million but only get on another five or six podium finishes, receive the sentimental cheers for the accomplishment but mostly be an afterthought. Or he could spend another year in Formula One and then leave for IndyCar and have a five to ten year career there, experience a new set of circuits that would test his ability, drive a less-sophisticated car but in a setting where his input could go further and he could possibly win races and do something only Mario Andretti, Emerson Fittipaldi and Nigel Mansell accomplished.
The choice is up to Vettel, but there is life outside Formula One. He might be starting to realize that.
Is there a driver who can be the surprise of the second half of the season?
We know Red Bull and Ferrari are race winners. If Verstappen wins the championship, no surprise. If Leclerc comes back and wins the championship, slightly a surprise but not really because we know it is possible.
Mercedes winning 11 consecutive races to close the season and stealing all the hardware? A surprise, but it is Mercedes and we would all feel like we were duped.
Who would be a surprise that would have us all thinking, you know, I am not sure I saw that coming?
Fernando Alonso, anyone?
Alonso is tenth in the championship on 29 points. Not spectacular, but he has scored points in six consecutive races, including a fifth at Silverstone. The Alpine is good, nothing thrilling, but Alpine could find a rhythm and just consistently score points over the second half of the season and do so with Alonso smartly bringing the car home each race.
This could be where Alpine gets fourth in the Constructors' Championship while teething problems continue to plague McLaren through the remainder of the season. Alpine moves up to fourth, Alonso leads the way and possibly even jumps Esteban Ocon in the championship, and we end 2023 saying Alonso still has it.
That sounds like a season-ending storyline when the final checkered flag is waved at Abu Dhabi.
How do the final 11 races play out?
It would be easy to look at the first 11 races and say it will be Red Bull versus Ferrari with each manufacture having another mechanical blip or two along the way but ultimately Red Bull holding on to claim its first Constructors' Championship since 2013 and Verstappen becoming a double world champion. But for as predictable you could say this season has been there have been many curveballs and we are going to see more.
I have already said I think Mercedes will win multiple races. I believe Mercedes will continue upward and combined with its reliability it will push for second in the Constructors' Championship.
Last year, Red Bull felt the heat at times and stumbled. In its favor is it is Ferrari breathing down its neck and Ferrari hasn't closed anything out since 2007.
We also aren't sure how the budget cap will play into the end of this season. Red Bull has been the most vocal about relaxing it and team principal Christian Horner has sad teams could miss races later in the season due to it. That isn't going to happen, but it will likely cause some headaches from the sounds of it.
Ferrari should push Red Bull, but Red Bull is too weathered to lose to the untested Ferrari bunch. There will be a breaking point where Red Bull flexes its muscle and Ferrari either cannot counter or it snaps trying.
This will at least be interesting through the United States Grand Prix, but there is a solid chance trophies will be claimed early.
