1. I am stunned after this one. We knew the result with 75 laps to go. We had seen this race about 24 hours earlier. But this race was 50 laps longer and with 475 laps on these cars, all the components, a heartbreaking failure had a higher likelihood than at any other race this season.
It happened to be race leader Josef Newgarden who suffered the bad break. Newgarden was a few seconds down the road with 148 laps led and only 65 laps and one more pit stop remaining. And in turn four the right rear suspension failed. The left front tire lifted into the air mid-corner and Newgarden was only along for the ride.
And there the door opened. Patricio O'Ward had another strong run going at Iowa, but it appeared unlikely he was going to challenge Newgarden. A double podium weekend wouldn't be anything to be ashamed of, and frankly, it would be something O'Ward needed to pump up his championship hopes. A victory gives O'Ward a little greater of a shove into the championship picture.
Sometimes seasons need these kind of races, one that really was more than deserved. O'Ward was strong all weekend, but he was set to be second-best again today. This was a gift. Every great driver gets one in their careers. This is the first of a possible handful for O'Ward. If he makes a championship push, if he is lifting the Astor Cup at Laguna Seca, we will all point to this race as being the difference in his season.
2. Two pole positions and zero victories might be a disappointment to Will Power, but a third and a second has Power on Marcus Ericsson's heels in the championship. The deficit is down to eight points with five races to go. Power had a history of coughing up championships. Infamously, he entered the season finale leading the championship for three consecutive years and walked away with zero silverware.
Power is a much more experienced driver, a much more balanced driver. He isn't going to let this one slip away and the schedule sets up favorably for him. He loves the IMS road course. If he was this good at Iowa, Gateway shouldn't be a problem. He has won at Portland and has had strong runs at Laguna Seca. Power is smelling blood in the water and will pounce.
3. Yesterday's loose wheel nut was a pity for Scott McLaughlin, but this podium finish slightly makes up for it. McLaughlin was going to be a podium contender yesterday if it wasn't for that bad break prior to the final pit stop.
It is impressive how well McLaughlin is doing in his sophomore season. This was his EIGHTH OVAL START EVER! He has THREE PODIUM FINISHES and FOUR TOP FIVE FINISHES! Maybe ovals are easy or Scott McLaughlin is just that good. There are many races to go, but this season has been a significant improvement from McLaughlin and it is a pleasure and a blessing to have him in IndyCar.
4. Remember what I said yesterday about Scott Dixon? Same applies today, and quietly Dixon is 34 points behind Ericsson in the championship.
As confident as I feel about Will Power being able to pounce in the championship, I see Dixon back 34 points with five races to go and I think, "yeah, Dixon is going to win this championship." Through 12 races, I would say Dixon has had two great ones, the Indianapolis 500 and his Toronto victory. He has been good in about nine of them, and yet we know Dixon can pull this out. Five races? He can pull off five more top fives and have that be enough to win a championship and overcome the three drivers ahead of him.
This championship finish is going to be great.
5. Jimmie Johnson has had a hard time in IndyCar, but after this weekend a top five finish was warranted. Johnson had his best two IndyCar races in consecutive days. Johnson went forward again after qualifying in the middle of the field. He really pushed the limit in terms of the high lane this weekend, but it didn't bite him. There were a few notable saves.
There should be a reminder this doesn't matter next week when IndyCar returns to the IMS road course and Johnson will be 23rd, but he found a level of comfort on the ovals, the tracks he feared the most when moving to IndyCar. He is counting down the days to Gateway.
6. However, Johnson's fifth place finish came at the cost of Marcus Ericsson, who finished sixth, but that is two fewer points for Ericsson. Instead of leaving up ten points, it is eight points. Ericsson wasn't bad this weekend and his championship lead is gone. That is kind of the shortcoming of Ericsson at the moment. He will reel off top ten finishes, but top five finishes are less frequent. Dominant days are really non-existence. Ericsson's three victories really come down to opportunity more than muscle.
With five races remaining, Will Power not slipping up, Scott Dixon gaining momentum, Patricio O'Ward boosted in confidence and Josef Newgarden motivated, it is not crazy to think out of the top five in the championship, Ericsson is the fifth-most likely to claim the title.
7. This was a good recovery from Felix Rosenqvist to finish seventh. I know it is another day where O'Ward beat him on the track, but this is the third time Arrow McLaren SP has had double top ten finishes. Rosenqvist had only two top ten finishes all of last year. He has lifted the team level. AMSP is more competitive because of Rosenqvist. The 2023 AMSP driver picture is a mess, but Rosenqvist has done enough this year to justify him staying in IndyCar next year.
8. David Malukas drove well for another day and he got a top ten finish. This has been an odd year for Dale Coyne Racing. It hasn't felt as threatening as we have seen in the past, but it hasn't been an awful year. Top ten finishes have been infrequent than other seasons, but Malukas doesn't really do anything wrong. His confidence is growing. With Christian Lundgaard's retirement due to a brake issue, this result lifts Malukas to four points behind Lundgaard for top rookie honors. This is another battle to keep up on in the final five races.
9. It was a slight dip from yesterday, but Romain Grosjean picked up consecutive top ten finishes with his ninth-place finish today. Grosjean needs a strong end to the season. The middle third was kind of harsh to him, but he hopefully he can use this weekend to bump start his season. He does well at the IMS road course. Perhaps it is good that is the next race in six days.
10. Takuma Sato was tenth. Sato really made it difficult for other drivers today. There were multiple times Sato was on the bottom and underneath another car but ran wide and took that car further up the track. He even did it to his teammate Malukas once. It never resulted in an accident, but it very well could have.
11. Callum Ilott went 12th and 11th this weekend. This was a big weekend for him and it feels dissatisfying Ilott didn't get a top ten finish today. He was there in the later stretches of the race. Juncos Hollinger Racing needs praise because the cars are better than earlier this season. JHR did form an IndyCar entry out of nowhere late last season and it looked like a rushed program in those three races at the end of 2020 and even at the start of this year.
But the team has cured some of its reliability woes. It has found speed, and Ilott is a sleeper at most races now. This could be a flash in the pan for JHR, but I really hope this is the emergence of another capable IndyCar team ready to battle for top five finishes and possibly even victories.
12. Colton Herta was frustrated all race and finished 12th. Herta did make up some spots after serving a grid penalty for the engine change. I don't think Herta would have been in the top five if he had started third, but I think he would have been better than he was today. The issue was balance and it was something most of the Andretti Autosport team couldn't find this weekend.
13. Álex Palou went the wrong way in this race. After going the right way on Saturday, Palou went backward today. This is the first time in a while Palou has been a non-factor in a race.
14. Let's run through the field. Graham Rahal didn't quite make up the ground today and was 14th. Devlin DeFrancesco gets his best career finish, but it is still a 15th-place finish, so not much to leap for joy about. This was a terrible weekend for Conor Daly and this race felt like another case of wasted speed. We saw a number of drivers waste starting positions this weekend. I chalk it up to tire wear. It is easier to find two-lap speed than to find 50-lap speed.
Ed Carpenter was 17th. You know Alexander Rossi had a bad day because he was behind DeFrancesco for much of this one. Andretti Autosport has had an intelligence leak at the team on the engineering side for at least the last seven years and it is showing. Rinus VeeKay blew a promising day on a pit lane entry infraction, which is more common than you realize at Iowa. Jack Harvey did the presenting sponsor proud finishing 20th. I doubt that.
15. This was a weekend from hell for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. Neither car was close this weekend. Hélio Castroneves was 21st and that somehow feels like a gift. Simon Pagenaud had more problems than you could shake a fist at. This might have been a good weekend for IndyCar. It was disastrous for Meyer Shank Racing. They are likely wishing Iowa wouldn't return in 2023.
16. A.J. Foyt Racing is a dumpster fire. Dalton Kellett was 22nd, six laps down. Kyle Kirkwood got into the marbles when being lapped by Newgarden and hit the wall.
This is a bad habit for Kirkwood. He has to get the car to the end of races. This wasn't a massive shunt today, but it looks bad when you cannot bring a car home. Kirkwood is behind DeFrancesco in the championship, and we all saw Kirkwood wipe the floor with DeFrancesco in Indy Lights. Kirkwood knows he is going to Andretti Autosport next year, but to salvage respect he has to reset for the final five races of this season.
It would be embarrassing to finish behind DeFrancesco and Harvey, who missed a race, and Ilott, who missed a race and even Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has strong oval races to boost his standing, but Kirkwood entered this season with high expectations. He could end up having the worst season of all the rookies, and I would include Tatiana Calderón in that discussion as well.
17. This was a devastating result for Josef Newgarden. For now. This sucks now.
It isn't the final nail in the coffin for Newgarden's championship hopes. We are talking about a 44-point swing, from possibly being the championship leader up ten points to down 34. This is reminiscent to Road America last year, but he at least got to finish Road America, albeit it with a limping race car.
The car broke on him. He did everything right and the equipment let him down. Scott Dixon lost the 2012 Texas race when the rear end stepped out while leading. Hélio Castroneves had a rear wing failure while leading with 24 laps to go at Milwaukee in 2007. Mario Andretti lost the 1967 championship running out of fuel late in the Riverside finale while leading.
These races happen. They happen to the greatest drivers in history. Jim Clark's greatest performance is one where he ran out of fuel on the final lap while leading. The same way O'Ward got a gift, Newgarden took a blow. They happen to everyone eventually.
It hurt. We saw Newgarden after the accident. We heard it in his voice as well. It sucked. But at the end of his interview, the determination came out. This sucked, but Newgarden wasn't going to leave Iowa defeated, even with a smashed race car. He knows there are five races left and plenty of points left on the table.
18. In six days, IndyCar is back at it. Another race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. We do not know what will happen, but it would be safe to guess the championship will flip upside down.
