Thursday, July 6, 2023

2023 Road to Indy Catch-Up

We focus a lot on IndyCar and where that championship stands, especially now as we just crossed the halfway point in the season and the championship could be claimed shortly. Too often we ignore the Road to Indy series when it comes to those championships until those three series are at the very end. 

Some of those series are beyond the halfway point and only have two or three race weekends left. The end of those championships can sneak up on you if you are unprepared. Instead of being surprised come the end of summer, this down time allows us to inspect those championships before it is too late. 

Indy Lights
Exactly at the halfway point of the 2023 season, Indy Lights opened with five different winners in the first five races, the first time that has happened since 2016. There was a repeat winner but we have seen six winners through seven races, and 12 drivers have stood on the podium this season. 

Seven races remain over six race weekends and we will see the only two oval races of the season occur in the second half of the season. Iowa leads off the second half of the season before back-to-back races at Nashville and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. Gateway, Portland and a Laguna Seca doubleheader round out the season.

What is the championship picture?
With seven races and 378 points left on the table, everybody is still mathematically alive for the championship, including you. There is still time to find the budget and organize an entry to win an Indy Lights championship this season. 

Of the drivers with points, Nolan Siegel leads with 244 points, 16 points clear of Christian Rasmussen. Andretti Autosport teammates Hunter McElrea and Louis Foster are on 205 points and 202 points respectively. Jacob Abel sits on 196 points in fifth, 11 points more than Reece Gold. 

Danial Frost is in seventh on 177 points, 12 points ahead of James Roe, Jr. with Kyffin Simpson in ninth on 162 points. Enaam Ahmed rounds out the top ten with 150 points, two clear of Ernie Francis, Jr., who is two points ahead of Matteo Nannini. Jagger Jones is 13th on 135 points. 

Christian Boggle has 130 points, seven more than Colin Kaminsky. Josh Green and Jamie Chadwick are tied on 119 points, one point ahead of Rasmus Lindh. Toby Sowery and Josh Pierson, who are sharing the #14 HMD Motorsports entry, are tied on 65 points. 

Who has been impressive? 
Siegel is the only driver with multiple victories this season and I would not have guessed he would have been the first driver to win twice this season. He looked good in testing and was respectable moving up the ladder system, but nothing suggested he would be the driver to beat, especially since there were some good drivers returning this Indy Lights season. 

Outside of Siegel, it is tough to find anyone else down the order because there have been some fluky results. Reece Gold won the first Detroit race after Siegel's gearbox failed in the final corner of the race. Gold has no other podium finishes this season and that was his only top five result through the first five races. Matteo Nannini won the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race and that is his only top ten finish this season. 

Rasmussen is second in the championship, and he has five top five finishes. The Dane has improved from his rookie season. His accident at Road America is the only blemish on his season.

Whose results do not match the pace?
Foster retired from three of the first four races, and two of those were from pole position. He was looking set on a podium in St. Petersburg and then got into the barrier. Barber Motorsports Park was not going that well, but he was running in the top ten when an accident took out his race. He didn't even complete a lap at Detroit when teammate Hunter McElrea ran over Foster at the start. 

We really cannot say what Detroit would have produced, but if you gave Foster at least 30 points for what he lost in each race, he is second in the championship and within touching distance of Siegel's championship lead. 

How will the remainder of the season play out?
This championship is still up for grabs. There is plenty of time for someone to step up and turn the championship upside down. 

Siegel and Rasmussen will hold on and likely be in the fight until the wire. However, if Foster hits his stride and his race results match his qualifying pace, we could see him come from behind and pull out a championship that would have been considered a stunner in at the start of June. 

It does feel like Siegel, Rasmussen, McElrea and Foster are the legitimate title contenders. Nobody outside the top four appear capable of piecing together a championship run.

USF Pro 2000
With seven races remaining in USF Pro 2000, no driver one driver has dominated, which has allowed one driver to pull clear of the field. Seven different drivers have won in the first 11 races. Of those seven winners, for three of them the victory is their only podium finish of the season. The winner of the season opener has not returned for any other race weekends. Only two drivers have won multiple times and one of those drivers has finished outside the top ten in six races. 

The final seven races are split over three rounds, a doubleheader in Toronto, a doubleheader at Circuit of the Americas at the end of August, and a triple-header at Portland. 

What is the championship picture?
Twenty-one of the 22 drivers to have started a USF Pro 2000 race this year are alive for the championship, but the herd will thin out rather quickly over the coming weeks. 

Myles Rowe has won four races and has finished in the top five in nine of 11 events, giving Rowe 251 points and a 64-point lead over Kiko Porto, who has not won this season. Joel Granfors has one victory and is two points behind Porto. Salvador de Alba and Francesco Pizzi round out the top five in the championship on 173 points and 171 points respectively.

Despite opening the season with no top ten finishes in the first four races and finishes outside the top ten in five of the first six races, two victories in the last four races has Michael d'Orlando up to sixth on 169 points, three more than Jace Denmark. Jonathan Browne is on 152 points while Jack William Miller has 147 points. Lirim Zendeli rounds out the top ten on 142 points, two ahead of Reece Ushijima.

Ricardo Escotto won the first IMS road course race, but Escotto's next best finish is eighth and he has 110 points, four more than Christian Weir and nine points more than Yuven Sundaramoorthy. Jordan Missig rounds out the top fifteen on 98 points, four more than Bijoy Garg.

Jackson Lee (84 points), Nicholas Monteiro (68 points), Lindsay Brewer (65 points), St. Petersburg season opener winner Christian Brooks (47 points) and Louka St-Jean (45 points) round out the mathematically championship eligible drivers.

Who has been impressive? 
Rowe has picked up where he left off in U.S. F2000, and while it is not a thrashing in USF Pro 2000, Rowe is leading this championship through avoiding mistakes. He regularly has speed and can be at the front, but he isn't over-driving the car. He had a habit of getting into accidents, especially early in races and that has not been the case in USF Pro 2000.

Porto has improved from his rookie season in this series last year, though victory continues to elude the Brazilian. Granfors has adjusted well after racing in Europe. De Alba has taken a big step forward from last season, which was a stellar year in itself. Pizzi had a bad weekend at Mid-Ohio, but his season has been strong considering his struggled in the Formula Regional European Championship and Formula Three.

Whose results do not match the pace?
Michael d'Orlando has started inside the top five of eight of 11 races this season, including eight of the last nine, but early incidents and accidents have cost him dearly. He let races get away from him early in the season. Things have settled down. He won the first Road America race and then had misfortune cost him in the second, but he bounced back with a victory and a third at Mid-Ohio. 

Jace Denmark has three races between Sebring and Indianapolis Raceway Park that are dragging his championship down. Denmark's average finish in the seven races outside of the second Sebring race through IRP: 4.857. Denmark's average finish in the other four races: 13.5. Woof. That brings a season down mightily. 

It has been a feast or famine season for Lirim Zendeli. He has three top five finishes, but he has finished tenth or worse in five races and he skipped the IRP round. He was fourth in the championship after Sebring.

How will the remainder of the season play out?
Toronto is such a kooky round. It feels like every year a Road to Indy championship is completely flipped upside down in Toronto. Ask me after Toronto and I will have a better idea. 

If Rowe survives Toronto, I think the championship is his. Austin should be a favorable round and he learned a lot from Portland last year. The American driver already has a healthy lead. It is too early to play prevent defense, but the one notable thing from this season is even on the weekends Rowe only looks good but not great, he has extended his lead. There aren't many years in this series were a driver can fail to win six consecutive races and stand on the podium only once in that time and yet still have a lead greater than 30 points in the championship. 

Rowe's toughest rival at the moment appears to be d'Orlando, and d'Orlando is 82 points back. Porto has been good, but each time there is an opening Porto cannot capitalize. Granfors has finished ahead of Rowe in only three races all season. De Alba hasn't been close to Rowe's level. Pizzi has been missing that final 2% to get a victory and a terrible Mid-Ohio round has kind of knocked the Italian out of the picture. 

I don't see Rowe stumbling and the only driver I see capable of grabbing the championship by the throat is d'Orlando, but considering d'Orlando's deficit, a seven-race hot streak likely will not be enough to take the title.

U.S. F2000
It has been a rather back-and-forth fight in U.S. F2000 this season. Unfortunately, a series of accidents has inflated that championship gap to much greater than it has truly been through the first 13 races. Two drivers combine for nearly two-thirds of the victories. There have been six winners this season, but only eight drivers have stood on the podium out of 31 participants. 

The U.S. F2000 season is coming down the stretch. There will be a doubleheader at Toronto later this month but then six weeks off before the Portland triple-header closes out the season.

What is the championship picture?
Things were blown open and not in a good way at Mid-Ohio when Lochie Hughes was unable to start the final race of the weekend due to a mechanical issue after the team had to significantly repair from damage suffered the race before after contact with championship rival Simon Sikes. Hughes' absence allowed Sikes to win the final Mid-Ohio race virtually uncontested, his fourth victory of the season, and Sikes' increased his championship lead to 40 points over Hughes with five races remaining. 

Hughes is now tied with Nikita Johnson, who has been a distant third the entire season but has been comfortably in third for most of that time. Mac Clark has two victories and five podium finishes in the last six races and that has Clark up to fourth on 246 points. Evagoras Papasavvas rounds out the top five on 235 points. 

There is a 59-point drop from Papasavvas in fifth and Chase Gardner in sixth. Sam Corry is seventh on 164 points, four ahead of Jorge Garciarce, who is the final driver mathematically alive for the championship, as only 146 points remain up for grabs.

Who has been impressive? 
The back-and-forth between Sikes and Hughes has been the most impressive. Look at their results:

St. Petersburg 1: Hughes - 1st, Sikes - 4th
St. Petersburg 2: Sikes - 2nd, Hughes - 3rd
Sebring 1: Hughes - 1st, Sikes - 2nd
Sebring 2: Sikes - 1st, Hughes 4th
IMS 1: Hughes - 2nd, Sikes - 13th
IMS 2: Sikes - 1st, Hughes - 2nd
IMS 3: Sikes 3rd, Hughes 1st
IRP: Sikes - 3rd, Hughes - 6th
Road America 1: Sikes - 1st, Hughes 12th
Road America 2: Hughes - 1st, Sikes - 10th
Mid-Ohio 1: Sikes - 2nd, Hughes - 4th
Mid-Ohio 2: Sikes - 17th, Hughes - 19th
Mid-Ohio 3: Sikes - 1st, Hughes - 22nd (Did not start)

If this was a golf game where low score wins it would be rather tight, though Mid-Ohio put Sikes firmly ahead. Entering the Mid-Ohio weekend, Hughes' combined score was 33 and Sikes wasn't that far off at 40. They have been the two best drivers by far. 

Whose results do not match the pace?
This one isn't necessarily for a driver who has been quick but had bad results, but I think the rest of the top five deserve recognition.

Nikita Johnson has seven podium finishes and 11 top five finishes this year. Johnson has more top five finishes than Sikes and Hughes. Johnson has as many podium finishes as Hughes. Mid-Ohio is the only reason those two drivers are tied, but Johnson has been one of the best driver this season.

Mac Clark grabbed our attention last year at Portland when he won on his debut weekend. This season started slower and the 19-year-old had some growing pains, but he has found his stride and is now a regular contender for victories. 

This is Evagoras Papasavvas' second year in car racing. Papasavvas is 15 years old. He is by far exceeding expectations with a victory, five podium finishes and seven top five finishes. He had a rough patch in May, but he has rose from that slump splendidly. 

How will the remainder of the season play out?
It feels like if Sikes survives Toronto the championship will be his. The most points a driver can earn in one race is 33 points. It isn't impossible for Hughes to come back or for Johnson to pull this out, however, if Sikes is going into Portland with a 40-point lead or greater, he just has to keep his nose clean. 

Consider it this way, if Sikes' championship lead remains 40 points entering Portland, he will only need to score 60 points over three races to clinch the title. If he finishes third in every race that weekend he would accomplish that. His average finish at the moment is 4.615, and that is including a 17th in the second Mid-Ohio race. 

At the only other street course round this season, Hughes won a race and was third in the other. Sikes was fourth and second. Johnson was third and first. All three drivers should feel confident, however, Sikes is on serve and in control. 

Clark and Papasavvas are both just a little too far back to factor, however, either driver could take points away from the contenders and make the final five races fascinating.