Monday, July 3, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: We Must Talk About Max

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Formula Regional European driver Dilano van 't Hoff was fatally injured in a race at Spa-Francorchamps, and there were a few hair-raising accidents this weekend. The Spa 24 Hours did take place and there was a familiar group of winners. NASCAR had an exhausting inaugural Chicago street race weekend, and Shane van Gisbergen won on his Cup Series debut. An American won in Austria. A winning streak ended. Another few continued. Álex Palou is on fire, but it is another dominant driver that is on my mind.

We Must Talk About Max
He isn't quite a popular driver, but Max Verstappen requires some attention. 

You may be thinking Verstappen doesn't need any more. After all, he just won the Austrian Grand Prix and the sprint race to boot, he has won two consecutive World Drivers' Championship and has won 70.96% of the Formula One races since the start of the 2022 season. He gets enough attention, but I don't think we are truly digesting what Verstappen is accomplishing. 

He has 42 grand prix victories, surpassing Ayrton Senna for fifth all-time at Austria. Senna's final victory came when the Brazilian was 33 years, seven months and 17 days old. Verstappen has reached 41 victories at 25 years, eight months and 19 days old. Senna did reach 41 victories in 158 starts, 13 starts fewer than Verstappen, but the number of starts are semantics at this point. Verstappen is fifth all-time in Formula One victories and doesn't turn 30 years old for another five years. 

Motorsports has significantly changed since Senna's final grand prix, Formula One included. Drivers are getting starting younger and getting higher opportunities at younger ages, partially because there are no restrictions from tobaccos sponsorship. A driver doesn't wait until he or she is 18 to even participant in a junior series race, let alone in the biggest series on the planet.

Many changes have occurred that allow Verstappen to be in year nine of his Formula One career at this age. However, the success is not only because of Verstappen's longevity and talent but finding the right situation at the right time. Verstappen has developed into an exceptional race car driver and wound up in possibly one of the best race cars ever built at the same time. That is what has allowed him to win 21 races in an 18-month span. 

Things would be much different in 2023 if Verstappen joined the Ferrari Driver Academy in 2014. If Verstappen joined the FDA, he probably isn't running Friday practice sessions at the end of 2014 nor in a race seat at the start of 2015. He likely isn't scoring his first career victory in the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix. We will never know what Verstappen's career would have looked like if he was swayed into the Scuderia's arms almost a decade ago, but it likely would not look like this. 

We also are going through a polarizing time in Formula One. Verstappen and Red Bull are not a celebrated group, not in the way Senna was with McLaren or Michael Schumacher with Ferrari or even Lewis Hamilton with Mercedes. Some of this stems from the conclusion of the 2021 season and how Verstappen won his first time. Another part of it is from Red Bull's cost cap violation. Then there is the dominance. 

For as much as Senna, Schumacher, Hamilton and even Alain Prost won races, they all had segments of the crowd that rooted against them. Verstappen is in the same boat, but I am not sure a driver this successful has ever had this slim of the fan base in his corner. 

Because of that lack of popularity, we aren't wrapping our heads around the numbers. The day Verstappen was born, 41 victories was second all-time. Only ten drivers had won more than 20 grand prix. Three drivers have since surpassed Prost's then-record of 51 victories. 

When Schumacher was climbing up the record book, it was monumental, especially since he was immediately following Prost and Senna. When Vettel was on his tear, it was something special and kind of unexpected because we didn't think we would see Schumacher-esque dominance again, let alone only a few years later. Then Hamilton and Mercedes smashed the record books, and Hamilton surpassed the century-mark in victories. 

Verstappen isn't getting any type of buzz. There is no difference between what Verstappen is doing with a superior car than what Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton did, but the celebration isn't there. Verstappen could also be suffering from record book fatigue. For the better part of 23 years we have been watching the Formula One record book be re-written. It is nothing new. Verstappen doing it is just the fourth guy in line, and it is expected at this point. 

Regardless of whether it is expected or not, Verstappen is still doing it and when his career is over he is likely going to be in the top three all-time in victories. He could be third before this season is over. He is changing how future generations will look at the series, and there is great chance he will be the second to 100 victories and eventually surpass Hamilton for the top spot. He isn't even halfway to Hamilton, but nothing suggests Verstappen will slow down anytime soon. Even if Verstappen does, he could have a three-year slump and still have ten seasons to make up for it. 

The Dutchman isn't going anywhere anytime soon, despite how much he talks about leaving Formula One. This conversation is going to carry on for probably the next decade, and he has already placed himself right at the top of the record book.

It doesn't help that Verstappen is racing during a more critical time. Plenty of people have seen the spells of Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton and are wondering what it means to be a great driver. Credit to Verstappen for winning the races, but if the general belief is nine out of ten drivers would dominate at the same or similar rate in that car, is it that impressive? Should the driver receive a bulk of the glory in that case? 

Record books mean something. It is the standard every competitor measures himself or herself up to. We don't put much nuance into comparing any competitors from different eras. We generally just take the bigger number and let that settle it, but it isn't that easy. 

Humanity, in general, is not becoming more thoughtful, but in the world of Formula One where more people are less impressed with the achievements of the winner, we are seeing people really take stock of what the numbers mean. Is it a coincidence this reflection is occurring as Verstappen and Red Bull dominates? No, it isn't, but seeing how Verstappen and Red Bull are received in the moment will change how this combination is perceived for years to come. There aren't many celebrating this group. Ferrari and Schumacher received fanfare from dominance, as did Red Bull with Vettel and Mercedes with Hamilton.

The good news is people will generally conceded to the numbers. They want an easy argument, but if the present is any indication of the future, the reverence for Verstappen will not be there 20 years after he is retired like it was for Prost, Senna, Jackie Stewart, Niki Lauda, and so on. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Álex Palou, Shane van Gisbergen and Max Verstappen, but did you know...

The #98 ROWE Racing BMW of Philipp Eng, Marco Wittmann and Nick Yelloly won the Spa 24 Hours. Eng became the 11th driver with three Spa 24 Hours victories.

Cole Custer won the rain-shortened NASCAR Grand National Series race. 

Louis Foster won the Indy Lights race from Mid-Ohio, his first career Indy Lights victory. Michael d'Orlando and Myles Rowe split the USF Pro 2000 races. Evagoras Papasavvas, Mac Clark and Simon Sikes split the U.S. F2000 races.

Jak Crawford (sprint) and Richard Verschoor (feature) split the Formula Two races from Austria. Paul Aron (sprint) and Zak O'Sullivan (feature) split the Formula Three races.

Álvaro Bautista (races one and two) and Toprak Razgatlioglu (SuperPole race) split the World Superbike races from Donington Park. Nicolò Bulege swept the World Supersport races.

Coming Up This Weekend
The British Grand Prix from Silverstone.
The FIA World Endurance Championship has its antepenultimate round at Monza.
NASCAR returns to an oval and moves to Atlanta.
IMSA treks to Mosport.
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters has its premier event at the Norisring.
Shane van Gisbergen has a busy return to Australia as he joins the Supercars group at Townsville.