Six months down, six months to go, and summer is here in the Northern Hemisphere. Where does the time go? Indianapolis was a month ago. Le Mans was only a few weeks. Much is behind us, but still plenty is ahead. With the big races done, the attention will turn to championships. Some battles are still tight, others are growing, some could shrink over the next few weeks and months. The pictures will soon become clear but it still requires patience. Plenty of time remains, though dwindling.
IndyCar Tidbits
I did this last year at this point in the season and I am doing it again. We are about halfway through the IndyCar season and there have been a few notable things that have occurred that you might not have realized. There are things you may have not noticed but over the first four months of the IndyCar season and digging through the record books and old box scores I have uncovered some truly remarkable findings that should be shared.
With that said, we must begin with a correction on something I wrote last year.
Newgarden's Oval Winning Streak... It is actually quite historic
Last year, in this same end of June post, I went over Josef Newgarden's oval success and said he had won an oval race in five consecutive seasons.
However, what I failed to recognize was Josef Newgarden won at Phoenix in 2018. When going over the races last year, I must have only been looking at the active ovals on the schedule and completely missed Phoenix in 2018. One got by the goalie.
Taking into considering Phoenix from 2018 and this year's Indianapolis 500, Newgarden has won an oval race in nine consecutive seasons.
Where does that put him? A historic spot.
Newgarden has won an oval race in nine consecutive seasons. That is tied for the longest streak since World War II with Bobby Unser and Johnny Rutherford.
As mentioned last year, Mario Andretti, Al Unser, Al Unser, Jr., Emerson Fittipaldi, Bobby Rahal, Dario Franchitti and Will Power never won oval races in five consecutive seasons, let alone come close to nine. A.J. Foyt's best streak was seven consecutive seasons with an oval victory. Hélio Castroneves had a six-year streak. Rick Mears, Michael Andretti and Scott Dixon's best streaks were all five seasons.
With six oval races remaining in 2024, Newgarden already knows he will enter 2025 with a chance to become the first driver to win an oval race in every season for a decade. He is already being penciled in for two or three more oval victories this year, if not four or five. How confident does everyone feel about Newgarden making it to ten next year?
Another Debutant Fastest Lap
At the end of last season, we covered the history Linus Lundqvist made when he picked up fastest lap on debut at Nashville. Prior to Lundqvist, there had not been a debutant fastest lap since reunification. Hideki Mutoh was the most recent to do it on his debut in the 2007 Indy Racing League season finale from Chicagoland. There had been 265 races between debutant fastest laps.
How many races would there be between Lundqvist and the next occasion?
Four.
The answer was four races because Kyffin Simpson is credited with fastest lap at St. Petersburg, his debut, after the Team Penske penalties meant Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin were disqualified from the race. Newgarden lost all 92 laps led and fastest lap because of that penalty. Simpson had the second fastest lap and inherited the spot in the record book for fastest lap in the 2024 Grand Prix of St. Petersburg once Newgarden was removed.
Simpson became the seventh driver since 1993 to score fastest lap on debut. You may be thinking, "Four races is probably the fewest between debutant fastest laps." And you would be... wrong! Technically wrong.
The Split has caused some quirks in the history book and a disjointed picture in the record book. Technically speaking, there were debutant fastest laps in consecutive races in IndyCar history. Buzz Calkins had fastest lap for the inaugural Indy Racing League race at Walt Disney World Speedway in January 1996. Greg Moore had fastest lap in the 1996 CART season opener at Homestead-Miami Speedway in March 1996.
Technically, those were successive races in IndyCar history, though for two different series. If you go based on specific series, yes, the four races from Lundqvist to Simpson would be the fewest races between debutant fastest laps. The previous shortest streak between debutant fastest lap in the same series was 48 races between Nigel Mansell in the 1993 season opener from Surfers Paradise and Moore at Homestead in 1996.
No Repeat Finishes
If this is our evergreen thing then so be it, but it is fun to see who keeps finishing in a different position. There are 27 positions a driver can finish in a typical IndyCar race. With only 17 races, there is a chance a driver could finish in a different position in every race. That is much easier said than done and the only driver to do it in the last 20 years was Alexander Rossi two years.
Last year, Graham Rahal went the longest without a repeat finish going 13 races. How do we stand through the first eight races of 2024?
Alexander Rossi (sixth, tenth, 25th, eighth, fourth, fifth, 18th, third)
Felix Rosenqvist (fifth, ninth, fourth, tenth, 27th, eighth, 14th, 11th)
Marcus Ericsson (23rd, fifth, 18th, 16th, 33rd, second, ninth, tenth)
Marcus Armstrong (25th, 12th, ninth, fifth, 30th, third, 26th, 22nd)
Linus Lundqvist (21st, 13th, third, 24th, 28th, 22nd, 12th, 17th)
Kyffin Simpson (12th, 19th, 14th, 15th, 21st, 24th, 27th, 23rd)
Sting Ray Robb (24th, 18th, 26th, 22nd, 16th, 21st, 17th, 20th)
Seven drivers remain standing through eight races. That is one more than through eight races in 2023. We lost Colton Herta and Patricio O’Ward at Laguna Seca, as Herta was second for the second time this season and O’Ward was eighth for a second consecutive race.
This does make me think that if you are finishing in a different position in every race, you are at best having a good season, not a great season. Great seasons usually see a driver winning often or finishing on the podium regularly. Will Power won the championship in 2022 with one race victory, but Power had nine podium finishes in 17 races. He had 12 top five finishes.
Let's just imagine the best possible season where a driver finishes in a different position in each race. With 17 races on the IndyCar schedule, the best it could be is finishing first through 17th and if this is the best let's just say that driver started on pole position and led the most laps in all of those races. Remember also that the Indianapolis 500 awards 12 points for pole position.
In that case, a driver would score 498 points. That would have been good enough for third in the championship last year. That is with maximum bonus points with each finishing position. Let's say that driver would score no bonus points but finish first through 17th with no repeats, except we will give that driver one bonus point for leading a lap in the driver's one race victory. In that case, the driver would be on 420 points. That would have been seventh in the championship last year, and that is the worst of the best case scenario.
When this happens, take Rossi two years ago, it is much more of a mix. Rossi finished in all five of the top five position in 2022, but he also had three finishes outside the top twenty and six finishes outside the top fifteen. He didn't finish sixth, the only position in the top ten he did not finish in. Once those finishes start ending up further down the order, you just end up losing position. Rossi scored 381 points in 2022 and was ninth in the championship.
As cool as this might be, it is definitely something you don't want as a driver, at least not if you have championship aspirations.
Colton Herta's Record From Pole Position
When Herta ended up finishing 19th at Detroit after starting on pole position and leading 33 laps, a fair number of people recognized this is rather common for a Herta pole position. He might start at the front, but he notable does not finish there.
In three of his last seven pole position starts, Herta has finished 19th or worse. This isn't a case of Herta only has a few pole positions to his name. With his pole position at Detroit, Herta became the 30th driver to reach 12 pole positions in a career. That is a small group in the larger picture of IndyCar racing.
But, I must ask, where does Herta's average finishing position from pole position compare to the other 29 drivers who have had at least 12 pole positions.
The one thing you notice is everyone who has at least 12 pole positions were rather good. Even the worst finishing position for a pole-sitter is better than the average driver. The numbers don't look bad on paper, but in context they are not great.
Herta ranks 24th in average finish from pole position out of the top 30 drivers in pole positions. His average finish when starting on pole position is 7.91667.
Again, not a bad result. He is still averaging a top eight finishing position. However, those three races finishing 19th or worse, combined with another where he finished 11th, has not helped Herta. The average driver would take an average finishing position of 7.91667.
Who is Herta behind?
Bobby Rahal has the best average finish from pole position amongst that group. In 18 career pole positions, Rahal has an average finish of 4.3889 with 15 top five finishes, a sixth, a tenth and a 28th. Four of those results were victories.
The only other drivers with an average finish inside the top five amongst the top 30 all-time in IndyCar history are Simon Pagenand at 4.53846 and Sébastien Bourdais at 4.5582. Gil de Ferran and Ryan Briscoe round out the top five at 5.7619 and 5.9308 respectively.
Tony Kanaan had an average finish of sixth while starting from pole position. Will Power has won the most pole positions in an IndyCar career. Power's average finish in those races is 6.3913. Scott Dixon and Gordon Johncock are tied on 6.5. Don Branson rounds out the top ten at 6.57143.
There are only a few drivers behind Herta. Michael Andretti had an average finish of 8.15625 when starting from pole position. Juan Pablo Montoya's average finish from pole position was 8.4 while Tom Sneva's average was 8.5. Dario Franchitti had an average of 8.667.
Herta isn't the worst, but who is the worst?
It is pretty bad, because while 29 drivers have averaged no worse than a ninth-place finish when starting first. There is daylight between 29th and 30th.
This answer likely will surprise you because you likely have no clue that this driver had 13 pole positions in his career.
However, Greg Ray did in fact have 13 career pole positions and in those 13 career pole positions, Ray's average finish was 14.1538. Ray won four times from pole position in his IndyCar career, but he had eight finishes 18th or worse when starting on pole position. This includes 33rd in the 2000 Indianapolis 500 after retiring due to an accident in turn two after 67 laps.
Herta is toward the bottom, but the bottom is still relatively better than average, except for the very bottom, where Greg Ray holds an unfortunate place in IndyCar history that he may never concede.
Will Power's Crazy Sixth-Place Starting Position Statistics
This one I accidentally uncovered on Saturday of Road America weekend. After Will Power brought out the red flag in the final round of qualifying, I had Power penciled in for sixth starting position. Makes sense. The five other cars would lay down laps and Power would be the only one without a representative time.
If you look at the record book long enough, you will be pretty sure when a driver hasn't done something. You will also be pretty sure when a driver has done something.
For Power, I could not recall one time he had won from sixth starting position in his career. I knew he won from seventh in the wet at Toronto in 2007. I knew he had won from ninth at Barber once, but I could not recall Power having won from sixth in his career.
Of course, it is best to double-check what you believe to confirm if you are right. Sure enough, Power has not won from sixth starting spot in his career, but that isn't the crazy thing.
The crazy thing is Power has never even finished on the podium when starting sixth. You may be asking yourself, "Well, how many times has Power started sixth in his career?"
Fair question! If a driver has only started sixth in two races in his career, it is likely a low probability he would have won one of those races or finished in the top three.
Power has started sixth in 13 races in his career. That is still only 4.43% of his career starts. However, he has started seventh in 19 races and he has started eighth in 14 races. Compared to the middle of the top ten, it is in line with those other positions, but here is where it gets even crazier.
Forget victories and podium finishes... only once has Power finished better than sixth when starting sixth! In 13 times starting sixth, he has finished in the top five only once, a fifth in the 2019 Indianapolis 500. Only three times has he finished sixth when starting sixth. That means in nine of his 13 starts from sixth position, he has lost ground.
Here is Power's average finish for the sixth, seventh and eighth starting positions.
Sixth - 10.2307
Seventh - 7.7
Eighth - 7.142
He is over three positions better when starting eighth over starting sixth and just over 2.5 positions better when starting seventh over sixth. It is statistically better for him to just miss out on the Firestone Fast Six than take the worst starting position after making the Fast Six.
Let's get deeper into those number.
Power has no victories, no podium finishes and only one top five (a fifth), when starting sixth.
When starting seventh, Power has one victory, six podium finishes and ten top five finishes in his 19 starts from that spot.
From eighth, Power has won twice and stood on the podium five times in 14 starts.
I cannot explain it other than missing out on the Fast Six and starting slightly further back in the top ten allows Power and his team to be a little more aggressive instead of trying to closely mimic the leaders' strategy in hopes of not losing ground. Is one or two spots really allow for that much of a psychological change?
It appears it does!
Of course, Josef Newgarden then had his accident at Road America in qualifying, lost his two fastest laps for bringing out the red flag and IndyCar's rulebook states if multiple cars do not set a time in a session, those grid positions are determined based on the drivers' times from the previous round. In that case, Power moved up to fifth, Newgarden took sixth and Power went on to win and end a 33-race winless streak.
What are Power's numbers when starting fifth you ask?
Not as great as you may hope to hear, but still rather impressive. Road America was the 13th time Power has started fifth in his career. Road America was the fourth time he has won from fifth starting position. He has five podium finishes from fifth, but he is more feast or famine when starting fifth. While he has won four times, he has finished 18th or worse four times as well.
His average finish from fifth is 10.4615, worse than when he starts sixth but somehow the results are better when you consider he has won four times from fifth and never stood on the podium from sixth.
What a stunningly, stupidly, remarkable fact.
Scott Dixon vs. Will Power
This isn't meant to put Dixon and Power against one another in terms of talent or historical place in IndyCar, but more meant to recognize that at this moment we have two active drivers in IndyCar that combine for 100 victories.
That has not happened in a long time.
For starters, you need at least one driver with at least 50 victories competing for it to be a reality. Prior to Dixon, there had only been two drivers with 50 career victories. The last time IndyCar had two drivers competing that had a combined 100 victories was the 1992 Indianapolis 500, which featured A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti, as well as Al Unser, who when combined with Foyt's career victory total also exceeded 100 combined victories.
The first race which featured two drivers with a combined 100 IndyCar victories was 1980 Indianapolis 500, which saw Foyt with 66 victories competing with Al Unser on 36 victories.
While Dixon and Power have combined to win a century worth of races, and they have been competing against each other for most of the last 20 years, it has never felt like Dixon vs. Power has been a regular thing.
In 12 races have Dixon and Power finished first and second, and Power holds the advantage having won eight of those races to Dixon's four. The last time the two drivers went 1-2 was the first race of the 2020 Road America doubleheader.
The two drivers have never finished first and second in the championship together. But notice where they finish in each other's championship seasons.
Power's Championship Positions in Dixon's Championship Seasons
2008: 12th
2013: Fourth
2015: Third
2018: Third
2020: Fifth
Dixon's Championship Positions in Power's Championship Seasons
2014: Third
2022: Third
The 2008 season aside due to reunification, Power and Dixon are generally close to one another but never directly against each other. The only time the two drivers have gone into the season finale with both having a shot at the championship was 2015, which was frankly a year neither driver was a favorite to win the championship. That was the year Juan Pablo Montoya never trailed in the championship, Graham Rahal was Montoya’s closest competition but because no driver was dominant, we had six drivers alive for the championship in the double points Sonoma season finale, which Dixon won and allowed him to take the championship on tiebreaker over Montoya.
Let's go a little further. How many times have Dixon and Power been 1-2 in the championship? They have never finished there but they have competed against one another in 263 races. After how many of those have they been 1-2?
The answer is six, and get this, on all six occasions it has been Power leading the championship with Dixon in second. Never has Dixon been first and Power been second simultaneously in the championship. Those six races where Power led with Dixon in second were Kansas 2010, Iowa 2010, Belle Isle 2012, Texas 2012, Belle Isle II 2018 and Nashville 2022.
For context, only three drivers have been second in the championship to Power more than Dixon. Dario Franchitti was second to Power 17 times, Hélio Castroneves was second 14 times and Hunter-Reay was second to Power after nine races. For Dixon, Castroneves was second to him after 20 races. Josef Newgarden has been second to Dixon after ten races while Simon Pagenaud and Alexander Rossi were each second to Dixon after seven races. Franchitti was second to Dixon five times in his career.
Expanding further, Dixon has led the championship after 63 races in his career. Despite having made 100 fewer IndyCar starts, Power has led the championship after only six fewer races than Dixon, having led 57 times. If you look at Dixon's career, even in championship seasons, he wasn't necessarily dominant.
In his first championship season in 2003, Dixon led after only four races, a quarter of the schedule, and after one of those he only led on tiebreaker. In 2013, Dixon didn't lead until the final two races of the season. When he took the championship lead at Houston that year, it was the first time Dixon had led since after Motegi 2009. After his 2013 championship, Dixon would not lead again until after the 2015 finale, when he won the championship on tiebreaker over Juan Pablo Montoya at Sonoma. In three of Dixon's six championship seasons, he led the championship after a combined seven races, only five of which he had an outright lead.
Across those three seasons, there were a combined 51 races. Dixon led the championship after only 13.72% of them, of which only 9.8% he led outright.
Meanwhile, in Power's case, he has led the championship after at least ten races in three different seasons. He only won the championship once in those three years. That would be 2014 while 2010 and 2012 were two years Power lost the championship in the final race.
Only once in Dixon's career has led the championship after more than five races and not won the championship. That was 2017 when he led the championship after six races but Josef Newgarden took the title.
Dixon and Power have been the top two drivers for a decade-plus, arguably the two best drivers for a generation of IndyCar viewers, and yet, we have never really seen a Dixon vs. Power season. Maybe 2024 will be the year.
July Preview
Formula E is in Portland for a doubleheader this weekend, the penultimate weekend of the 2024 season. The season will end with a doubleheader in London on July 20-21.
Nine drivers remain alive for the championship with four races remaining and 116 points left on the table.
Nick Cassidy leads on 167 points, and Cassidy has been on a run with six consecutive top five finishes, five of those results have been podium finishes. Cassidy is one of four drivers with two victories this season. One of those other drivers is Pascal Wehrlein, and the Porsche driver is 25 points behind Jaguar’s Cassidy. During this six-race run, Wehrlein has only two podium finishes and five top five results, but he was 20th in the most recent race from Shanghai.
Mitch Evans is 35 points behind his Jaguar teammate, but Evans has only three podium finishes in the first 12 races. Nissan’s Oliver Rowland is a point behind Evans. Rowland has a victory and six podium finishes but he has failed to score in three races.
Defending Formula E champion Jake Dennis is clinging to his title defense. Dennis is 54 points behind Cassidy. To remain championship eligible at the London doubleheader, a driver will need to be within 58 points of the championship lead. Dennis won the second race of the season in Saudi Arabia, but he has only four podium finishes.
Jean-Éric Vergne is 66 points off Cassidy, and his best finish this season was second on two occasions. António Félix da Costa has won twice this season, each victory coming in the last three races, but da Costa has failed to finish in the points in six of 12 races. This has the Portuguese driver 83 points from Cassidy.
Maximilian Günther is 98 points off the championship lead and Stoffel Vandoorne is barely alive for the championship, 114 points from the top.
Each Portland race will be at 5:00 pm Eastern on Saturday June 29 and Sunday June 30.
Other events of note in July:
IndyCar debuts its hybrid system at Mid-Ohio before an Iowa doubleheader and Toronto.
Formula One will be at Silverstone, Budapest and Spa-Francorchamps.
MotoGP runs the German Grand Prix and then will go on summer break.
NASCAR has its second race in Chicago, but closes July with a return of the Brickyard 400.
The Summer Olympics from Paris begin at the end of the month.
