Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...
Formula One raced in Spain. There was an American winner in Barcelona. Actually, there were two. A week after Le Mans, another endurance race was waiting at Watkins Glen. NASCAR had a messy race in New Hampshire. Super Formula had an all-domestic affair at Sportsland SUGO, but the weather played a starring role. Álex Palou won the IndyCar race from Laguna Seca, but this weekend marked a turning point in the season.
Eight Weekends Down, Seven to Go
It isn’t quite the midway point in the 2024 IndyCar season as there are still more races remaining than have been run, but in terms of race weekends, we are entering the second half as eight race weekends are down and seven remain with a pair of doubleheaders ahead of the series.
Races will come quickly in July, four in a span of 15 days. Before being caught in that whirlwind before the Olympic break, this is a good time to look at how the pieces have fallen and how we could summarize every driver to run multiple IndyCar races this season. Each driver gets a little blurb about how they have run in the first eight races and how we should feel about each heading into the final nine events.
Álex Palou is the best driver in IndyCar and the only way he doesn’t win this championship is if someone beats him. Palou doesn’t make mistakes. The only race where he hasn’t finished in the top ten in the last 18 months wasn’t because of something he did wrong. Palou was in the wrong place when Josef Newgarden spun at Detroit and Palou was forced to halt and fall to 16th. He is going to finish no worse than eighth the rest of the season. It will require someone to be near flawless to dethrone the Catalan champion.
It has been a good but not a great season from Will Power, and Power is second in the championship. He has three runner-up finishes and won at Road America, but there hasn’t been a race where Power has felt like the man to beat. He was the third-best car at Road America and played strategy the right way to win. Second in the championship is second in the championship, but it is hard to see Power as a threat when he has one victory over the last two years.
The biggest threat to Álex Palou is Scott Dixon. It has been a good start to the year for Dixon and he hasn’t had many bad days. With six oval races remaining, the schedule favors Dixon down the stretch. It isn’t guaranteed Dixon will outscore Palou, and Palou is respectable on ovals, but it feels more likely Dixon could go on a run and chip away six points from Palou’s advantage in each race. With a 32-point gap between the two with nine races remaining, Dixon can methodically steal this title from Palou’s grasp to the surprise of no one.
Colton Herta feels like he should have at least one victory by now, and that is understandable. This has been a big improvement for him and the Andretti Global group, but until there is a race victory it doesn’t feel like any progress has been made. Herta does overstep at times and that is still a flaw. There is a hint of desperation. This group is close. A victory should come his way, at least one would believe so.
This has been an exceptional season for Kyle Kirkwood. A case could be made for Kirkwood being the best Andretti Global driver this season. His worst finish is 11th. Unfortunately, and this is true for all three Andretti drivers, none have won, and Kirkwood should probably have a victory by now. Andretti Global isn’t the oval powerhouse it once was. The second half of this season isn’t necessarily favorably to this group, however, if they maintain this pace, a victory will come.
Three years ago, when Patricio O’Ward was a championship contender and going toe-to-toe with Palou, I don’t think anyone thought three years later the only victory he would have in a span of nearly two years would have been inherited after a driver was disqualified due to the greatest rules infraction in modern IndyCar history. O’Ward nearly won the Indianapolis 500. He hasn’t been that close to winning anywhere else lately. Arrow McLaren had a mighty first six races at the start of 2023, and hasn’t been close to that zip code since.
It has been fine for Alexander Rossi. He has won one race in five years. That isn’t great. But Rossi is seventh in the championship. He has been running well and he has been in the same ballpark as O’Ward all season. We have yet to see Rossi control a race driving for Arrow McLaren. We really haven’t seen him be the clear best driver in a race in almost four years. I would argue his last great drive was the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg, a race Rossi famously loss for on an unforced error. That ability cannot be entirely gone, but when will we see it again? Will we ever?
Team Penske is having a bad season and Scott McLaughlin has taken his share of lumps this season. There have been good days but the penalty from St. Petersburg combined with the mechanical failure at Long Beach and now the recent incident at Laguna Seca has put the New Zealander in a hole he could not afford to find himself in through the first eight races.
Josef Newgarden needs to start finishing races, especially road and street course races. Newgarden has allowed his season to hang on the results of the final six oval races. He spent all offseason speaking about focusing on racing, and if it wasn’t for a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 victory this would be his worst season in a decade. This season has been a regression, arguably a second consecutive season regressing, concern should be growing.
Felix Rosenqvist has exceeded expectations and has been the surprise of the season. Rosenqvist has turned Meyer Shank Racing into a contender. Work remains to be done. We see the best of Rosenqvist on Saturdays and he fades on Sundays. He is still picking up top ten results but if he can carry the speed over from qualifying to the race, he could be on the podium or even steal a victory.
Christian Lundgaard is carrying Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing for a second consecutive season, but Lundgaard is experiencing the limitations of RLLR more than last year. With six oval races remaining, this will be a challenge for the Dane, who is in a place of finding success where he is at but wanting more. Does Lundgaard believe RLLR can be a place where he can reach that next level and be the unquestioned number one driver or does he know he must leave to become a consistent race winner? He certainly has suitors.
You cannot ignore five top ten finishes and 12th in the championship, which is what Santino Ferrucci has through eight races for A.J. Foyt Racing. This season has gone much better than respected though Ferrucci isn’t really doing it with impressive drives. Most of his results have been earn strategically. Take them however you can get them, but Ferrucci has received more attention for his antics in practice than anything done in races. You can only goof around for so long.
There have been growing pains switching to Andretti Global for Marcus Ericsson. There have been good days but Ericsson fit in comfortably in Chip Ganassi Racing’s #8 entry. That team was all in it together. It takes time to develop that, and we are seeing it at Andretti. It hasn’t been a bad season, but there have likely been more frustrating days than expected. An accident in Indianapolis 500 practice did not help either.
Every other week I think there is no way Romain Grosjean will be back in IndyCar next year. Grosjean went from Dale Coyne Racing to Andretti Autosport and being a big enough name to convince DHL to stick around when it was ready to leave and after two disappointing seasons he drives mostly sponsor-less cars at Juncos Hollinger Racing. I don’t think any bigger IndyCar teams will be calling Grosjean in the future. Grosjean has the Lamborghini GTP contract. He could be full-time in IMSA or WEC, run a dozen sports car races a year, live in Switzerland full-time and be happy.
Marcus Armstrong has experienced a bit of a sophomore slump. When you complete all but four laps in your 12 starts as a rookie, a few bad days are bound to come up. Armstrong hasn’t been pushing Álex Palou or Scott Dixon, but he had strong days and shown development from his rookie year. The second half will be eye-opening as there are six oval races left and his Indianapolis 500 debut, his first oval race, ended after six laps due to an engine failure. Of those six laps, only about one turn was done at full speed.
The results are not where Graham Rahal would have hoped they would be especially after the positive steps Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing made at the end of 2023. The team hasn’t taken a step back but it definitely hasn’t made a step forward either. Plenty of changes have been made though, which makes status quo harder to accept.
I do not know who wants Rinus VeeKay, who is in a contract year. Three years ago, it felt like the day would come where VeeKay would be ready to leave Ed Carpenter Racing for a bigger and better team. With how competitive IndyCar has become and how many drivers are now interested in the series, I don’t think teams are tripping over themselves for a piece of Rinus VeeKay. His best option might be staying at ECR, which is a terrible option.
For all the waves Linus Lundqvist has made he will need more than one podium finish to stick at Chip Ganassi Racing. If the results do not turn around, this will look like a rushed hire based on three races where Lundqvist had nothing to lose as a substitute for an injured Simon Pagenaud. The #8 Ganassi entry has sponsorship. For all the drivers representing the American Legion, there are at least a half-dozen on the sidelines who could get better results for that car than Lundqvist at the moment.
Pietro Fittipaldi was a hot name six years ago and he had respectable runs in IndyCar, most of which came when still recovering from injury. Choosing to be sidelined for most of the last four years and only running eight to ten sports car races a year while spending the rest of the time standing at the back of the Haas F1 garage doesn’t seem like the best long-term career decision in hindsight. The third Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry has been struggling for three seasons, but Graham Rahal isn’t succeeding at a high level either and Fittipaldi isn’t even pushing for second-best in the team.
Kyffin Simpson is having the rookie season any underwhelming, mid-pack Indy Lights driver wish he had. Simpson has been better than expected and he has been smart. Let’s not confuse that for Juan Pablo Montoya 1999 or even Colton Herta 2019. Simpson hasn’t been a menace but he has still been rushed into IndyCar and is getting a boost because the fifth Chip Ganassi Racing entry is still good enough to finish 15th with the most average driver in it.
The story of Agustín Canapino’s season is the off-track, social media debacle involving Théo Pourchaire and the tone-deaf response to a fellow competitor receiving death threats. As much as Canapino has been celebrated for his move to IndyCar and open-wheel racing after a career in touring cars in Argentina, his best career finish is 12th in 24 starts. This is new to Canapino but at some point a best finish of 12th and a career average finish of 19.125 must be acknowledged.
Joining Ed Carpenter Racing might have been Christian Rasmussen’s only good option, and he did well in the Indianapolis 500, but Rasmussen has looked like a rookie in all the bad ways in every other race this season. Due to Ed Carpenter’s insisting he still run all the oval races, Rasmussen will run only three of the final nine races, and his season ends on August 25 at Portland. That’s a great plan for development.
In 25 career starts, Sting Ray Robb has never started in the top ten. His average starting position this season is 24.75. The average grid size this season is 27.875. Robb’s career is going as good as any competent person could have expected. He is basically keeping A.J. Foyt Racing as a two-car team. That is Robb’s greatest contribution to IndyCar at the moment.
Théo Pourchaire has likely been the best rookie this season but he will likely not complete his season after Arrow McLaren signed Nolan Siegel to complete the 2024 season. Pourchaire is at a crossroads at 20 years old. Three years ago, it felt like he was destined to be on the Formula One grid in no time. Despite finishing second and first in the Formula Two championship, Pourchaire has been shuffled out of the mix and being a Sauber development driver isn’t as glamorous as it sounds, especially with Audi taking over the team and looking for experience when it enters in 2026. Does any IndyCar team realize Pourchaire is worth the time or will the Frenchman’s career become scattered unsure if he is wanted though talent is clearly there?
Dale Coyne Racing didn’t have many other options and neither did Jack Harvey in January 2024. It was a late partnership for practically the entire season but for a team with limited resources and constantly cycling through engineers combined with a driver who has lost his luster, it was always going to be trying. Trying they have and there have been some moral victories, but you need more substance than that.
It is hard to say this wasn’t the worst possible outcome for Tom Blomqvist, but Blomqvist was getting more comfortable in each race weekend, however, Meyer Shank Racing could not afford to have one car challenging for the top ten in the championship while its other driver was scrapping for a Leader Circle spot and finishing in the top 22, hence the early season change.
An unceremonious dismal from Juncos Hollinger Racing turned Callum Ilott into a prized commodity and may have given him new life in sports cars. When Ilott stepped in at Arrow McLaren to deputize for David Malukas it felt like his future was with McLaren, but Ilott has excelled in the FIA World Endurance Championship with Hertz Team Jota and I don’t think he will be leaving sports car racing anytime soon.
Nolan Siegel went from a driver to keep an eye on for 2025 to a driver who will get to dabble in IndyCar in 2024 to full-time McLaren driver in six months. This is rushed. He is 19 years old and still has much maturation to do. Siegel’s 2023 season unraveled. His 2024 season was going well, but he wasn’t the dominant driver in the series. There are reasons to hope. At the 24 Hours of Le Mans, Siegel got the better of Ritomo Miyata on a stint, and Miyata is a celebrated Formula Two driver who won both the Super Formula and Super GT championships in Japan last year. Siegel could be alright, but he needs time and Arrow McLaren famously does not give its drivers that long of a leash.
Luca Ghiotto has made four IndyCar starts, all for Dale Coyne Racing with no prior testing experience. I don’t know what he is getting out of this or what he hoped for. I am glad Ghiotto got a shot at IndyCar and I hope it leads to something. These results don’t really tell us anything about him as a driver because Dale Coyne Racing cannot produce a car that can crack the top fifteen at the moment let alone one that is competitive for more than that.
Due to the firing of Blomqvist, we got to see Hélio Castroneves run two more races than expected in 2024 and it was wonderful getting to see him finish 25th and 19th along with him make another start in the Indianapolis 500.
There is plenty of time for drivers to turn narratives around, but at least half the story is already written, and they must live with what has been put to paper.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...
Max Verstappen won the Spanish Grand Prix, his seventh victory of the season.
Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Cup race from Loudon, as well as the Grand National Series race.
The #7 Porsche of Dane Cameron and Felipe Nasr won the 6 Hours at the Glen. The #88 AF Corse Oreca-Gibson of Nicklas Nielsen, Luis Pérez Companc and Lilou Wadoux won in LMP2. The #23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Ross Gunn and Alex Riberas won in GTD Pro. The #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Russell Ward, Philip Ellis and Indy Dontje won in GTD.
Louis Foster swept the Indy Lights races from Laguna Seca.
Victor Martins (sprint) and Jak Crawford (feature) split the Formula Two races from Barcelona. Mari Boya (sprint) and Arvid Lindblad (feature) split the Formula Three races.
Tomoki Nojiri won a rain-shortened Super Formula race from Sportsland SUGO.
Romain Dumas won the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb for the fifth time.
Coming Up This Weekend
The 24 Hours of Spa closes out the month.
Formula E has its penultimate race weekend in Portland.
MotoGP will be at Assen.
Formula One heads east to Austria.
NASCAR will be in the Nashville-area.
The World Rally Championship will be in Poland.
