Monday, November 4, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: They Are All Guilty

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

You know I had written something on IndyCar free agency and drivers on the market who have expressed interest about racing in IndyCar and how there are plenty of drivers out there who would make the grid better and while also helping attract viewers because these drivers have cult followings from a certain docuseries. 

But we cannot read that because NASCAR has another mess on its hand and it could be the end of the playoff era. There will likely be a regulations overhaul this winter after last night's events. Formula One had its own mountain of controversy this weekend and even that does not compare. It has now become a yearly occasion where controversy gets in the way of deciding the NASCAR Cup Series championship. 

NASCAR is not in the spotlight because of the competition. It isn't in the spotlight at all despite developing a system where winning is all that matters and the final races of the season become significantly more intense. Nobody is talking about the race winner Ryan Blaney, and nobody is celebrating who will be competing for the championship next week at Phoenix, like NASCAR wanted. Instead, we are in the muck of a dirty game wondering how to make it clean.

They Are All Guilty
With Ryan Blaney on his way to taking the checkered flag at Martinsville, it was clear the final spot in the championship four would be between William Byron and Christopher Bell. One driver was struggling on worn tires and the other driver was a lap down with only one spot ahead of him to gain, but half a track up the road. 

It came down to one point separating Byron and Bell. Byron could not lose a spot and Bell needed one more. It all collided on the final lap. 

With Byron struggling, the Chevrolets of Ross Chastain and Austin Dillon ran side-by-side behind Byron. Toyota's Bubba Wallace was the next car one-lap down and running slow on the outside of the track. Bell was driving to get that one final point. 

The final turn decided it. Byron was set to finish sixth and not lose any more points. Wallace was directly ahead of Bell and Bell made his move to the inside of turn three. Bell got ahead of Wallace but hit the wall in turn four in the process. Staying on the throttle, Bell did what he could to stay ahead of Wallace. He got off the wall before the start/finish line and ahead of Wallace, ending tied on points with Byron but with the tiebreaker provisionally placing Bell as the fourth finalist with a shot at the title in Phoenix. However, after Ross Chastain's move two years ago, NASCAR had implemented a rule banning drivers from riding the wall to gain positions. 

Nearly a half hour after the checkered flag was waved, NASCAR penalized Bell for his move, declaring it a safety violation. He lost four spots, four points and Byron was awarded the final championship spot. However, Byron was hardly a victim. 

While waiting for NASCAR's final decision on the results, scanner radio was played from Dillon's crew updating Dillon on Byron's playoff position and asking if Chastain's team was aware of the "deal" that was in place. Wallace had also received messages about Bell's peril of needing a point, and Wallace saying he thought he had a tire going down before being told to move to the outside of the track. 

Despite the final spot in the finale coming down to two drivers from two separate organizations, there were three other teams highly invested in the outcome and who made it to Phoenix.

Bell was penalized because there was a rule in place and it was interpreted he broke the rule. As much as Bell could argue it was different and he did not deliberately drive into the wall with in-car video showing him doing all he could to stay off the SAFER Barrier, he forced NASCAR to make a decision, and it was decided he had gone too far. 

However, the radio messages heard are not different from other radio comments that have received penalties previously. It was only two years ago Stewart-Haas Racing had mentioned to Cole Custer over the radio about Chase Briscoe needing a position in the final race of the second round from Charlotte's roval. Custer allowed Briscoe ahead and Briscoe advanced to the next round. In the aftermath, Custer was penalizes 50 points and crew chief Mike Shiplett was indefinitely suspended. Shiplett missed the remainder of the season and was reinstated on January 10, 2023. 

It was 11 years ago Clint Bowyer spun at Richmond in an attempt to help then-Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. make the playoffs. The comments and the deliberate spin led to points penalties to Bowyer and Truex, Jr., which took Truex, Jr. out of the playoffs despite Truex, Jr. knowing nothing of the incident. It also led to a $300,000 fine to the team and it led Napa Auto Parts to withdraw its sponsorship from MWR at the end of that season, forcing the team to contract one car and release Truex, Jr.

That moment at Richmond led to vigilance from NASCAR against race manipulation. It didn't want the credibility of its races questioned and it did not want teams and drivers actively trying to orchestrate a particular outcome. 

No matter how hard it tries, with the current playoff format, it is almost impossible to regulate. That is especially true when the manufacturers are involved.

It is pretty apparent Trackhouse's Ross Chastian and Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon were doing all they could to keep Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron from losing more positions. It is pretty apparent 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace was looking out for Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell. 

NASCAR can deduct all the driver points and owner points it wants. It can raise the fines another $100,000 and effectively sentence crew chiefs to death, barring them from ever stepping foot in a garage again, but when the manufacturers are pulling the strings, nothing will change. 

Chevrolet deciding it will do all it can to guarantee a Chevrolet participant in the championship four can only be prevented if Chevrolet is penalized, but NASCAR would never punish a manufacturer. Teams will come and go. We saw that with Michael Waltrip Racing, but NASCAR cannot afford to lose a manufacturer. It is not going to issue a fine that would really hurt a partner. The last thing NASCAR can afford to do is scare away a company that supplies engines to nearly half the grid. As much as a $5 million fine or $10 million fine would send a message, it would also be business suicide and hurt the teams far more even if done for the integrity of competition. 

But that is the only way conceivable way to prevent what we saw last night at Martinsville. You can write all the rules in the world saying a team must "give 100%" and "must race honestly" and "cannot manipulate the result," but if there is an entity that is always above the rules, nothing will change. It will happen again. A few foot soldiers will be lost but a few more will be found for when the time comes to do it again. 

The little guy (whether that be crew chief, driver, or team owner) suffers while the major corporate gets off scot free. A tale as old as time. 

They are all guilty, but that does not make everything right. The problem is I don't know how this changes. Even without a playoff format, there would still be instances with drivers needing a point here or there. A full season championship makes it less likely to determine an outcome, but it is not entirely eliminated. I think we can all understand if the chance still exists but with this format it happens on a far more regular basis and it honestly exists at the end of every playoff round. 

Thirty-plus years ago, Hendrick Motorsports isn't pulling over for Dale Earnhardt and Richard Childress Racing. Junior Johnson isn't pulling over for Rusty Wallace and Team Penske or Davey Allison and Robert Yates Racing, but in the 21st century, manufacturer influence is far greater. 

These teams are more dependent on the manufacturers' for success. Teams cannot test every day it is not racing. There is virtually no practice time. Any improvement that can be made must come from wind tunnels or simulators. Guess who controls those resources? These are separate teams but there is pressure for them all to get along, and manufacturer favoritism has far greater sway in this world of limitations. That has been clear as day at Daytona and Talladega, as over the last decade the manufacturers will work almost exclusively together to put their cars at the front. It has now expanded to deciding who will run for a championship. 

NASCAR hasn't been good ole' competition for a long time. It has been a multi-billion dollar monster for the entire 21st century. These teams will do all they cannot to lose a dollar in support. When told jump, they will respond with, "How high?" They are no better than what you see in Formula One or the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters. When there is this much money at stake from the manufacturers, they get to call some shots, likely more than you wish. This is the deal everyone has made to survive. It isn't changing anytime soon.

It is going to come in play next week at Phoenix even if it is not as explicit as it was at Martinsville. There is no incentive for Stewart-Haas Racing or RFK Racing to win at Phoenix. Richard Childress Racing has nothing to gain from winning the finale. Even Joe Gibbs Racing has nothing to play for. For Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, all that matters are the championship finalists. 

Ross Chastain might have won the finale last year for Trackhouse, but Ford's Ryan Blaney won the championship finishing second and directly ahead of fellow finalists Chevrolet's Kyle Larson and Chevrolet's William Byron. Anyone with a pulse knows Chevrolet didn't give a damn about Chastain winning that race, especially when it showed up to Phoenix as the only manufacturer with two bullets in the gun. 

Last year was a lesson, and it will not be repeated. We already know there is a plan in place coming from a much higher power. 

Champions From the Weekend
The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche of Kévin Estre, André Lotterer and Laurens Vanthoor clinched the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with a tenth-place finish in the 8 Hours of Bahrain.

Toyota clinched the World Endurance Manufacturers' Championship with a victory in Bahrain, Toyota's sixth consecutive championship.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Ryan Blaney, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Brazilian Grand Prix, his eighth victory of the season and it ended ten-race winless drought for Verstappen. Lando Norris won the sprint race.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Malaysian Grand Prix, his tenth victory of the season. Jorge Martín won the sprint race. Celestino Vietti won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his 13th victory of the season and his sixth consecutive victory.

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Brendon Hartley and Ryō Hirakawa won the 8 Hours of Bahrain. The #55 AF Corse Ferrari of François Heriau, Simon Mann and Alessio Rovera won in LMGT3.

Aric Almirola won the Grand National Series race, his third victory of the season. Christian Eckes won the Truck race, his fourth victory of the season.

The #36 TGR Team au TOM'S Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita won the Super GT race from Motegi. The #88 JLOC Lamborghini of Takashi Kogure and Yuya Motojima won in GT300.

Coming Up This Weekend
The NASCAR season finale from Phoenix. 
Super Formula ends its season with a doubleheader at Suzuka. Sho Tsuboi is up 14.5 points on Tadasuke Makino with 46 points left on the table. Tomoki Nojiri, Ayuma Iwasa, Nirei Fukuzumi and Kenta Yamahsita are also alive for the championship.


Friday, November 1, 2024

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2024 Season

We close our IndyCar Wrap-Ups with the champions, and for the second consecutive season it is Chip Ganassi Racing. Álex Palou successfully defended his title, and won his third championship in four seasons. For Ganassi, that makes its four titles in five seasons. While running five cars with two rookies and a sophomore didn't produce the most dominant seasons ever seen, Ganassi did not fall behind despite the inexperience. Its veterans still led the team ahead of the rest.

Álex Palou
It was always going to be hard to match his 2023 season, but Palou did not need to finish eighth or better in every race to claim another championship. The consistency remained insurmountable to the rest of the IndyCar field. While the door was left open as we saw Palou was human, no driver could overcome the methodically nature in which Palou wins championships. 

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won twice, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and at Laguna Seca. He also on the exhibition race at The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California, which paid $500,000 to the winner.

What subjectively was his best race?
Palou drove away with Laguna Seca. The Catalan driver stayed out under the Luca Ghiotto caution, which allowed him to drive flat out from those who did stop on lap 60. Palou opened a gap as others saved, and it allowed him to control a race that was not his in the early stages. He did have to hold on during some late restarts, but this race played into his favor and the competition gifted him one through conservative strategy.

What objectively was his worst race?
In the first Iowa race, Palou spun in the middle of the front straightaway somewhat inexplicably, and he finished 23rd. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
It proved not to be dire to his championship, but the second Milwaukee race could not have resulted in much worse after Palou's car died on the pace laps. With a chance of clinching the title early for a second consecutive season, Palou looked set on making Nashville a formality. When his car was unable to take the green flag, it appeared Palou could be heading to the Music City fighting from behind.

It was only a battery issue, but it still cost him precious laps. However, Palou plugged along and with a high attrition rate, plus Will Power spinning on his own while in the running for at least a podium position, 19th at Milwaukee turned out to be not so bad a result, and Palou maintained a healthy points lead into the finale.

Álex Palou's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (544 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 263
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 8.411
Average Finish: 6.5294

Scott Dixon
In the later stages of his IndyCar career, Dixon may have found the one driver that can beat him at his own game. Not entirely of course, as fuel mileage continues to be the New Zealander's specialty, but the sheer unshakability of Palou's form is something we had only seen from Dixon, especially at this rate. As great as he has been, we have known Dixon is human this entire time. He looked more human this year than in others.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon was the first driver to two victories this season, and they were both street races. He won at Long Beach and Detroit.

What subjectively was his best race?
Long Beach became another race of legend on what is an already long list for Dixon. Stretching his fuel to 34 laps over each of the final two stints, Dixon pulled off a stunning drive from eighth on the grid to win this race despite having Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Álex Palou all charging him down in the closing laps. 

Dixon never lost his cool and kept his calculated nature on point, not pushing too much to run out of fuel, but pushing enough to keep the competition at bay. Dixon wasn't the only one to use this strategy, but he finished over 15 seconds ahead of Will Power doing the same thing, and Power was ahead of Dixon after the first round of pit stops.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon did not complete a lap at Portland after contact with Pietro Fittipaldi sent Dixon into the barrier on the outside of turn eight. This came after Dixon went off course battling Kyle Kirkwood in turn seven. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Portland was bad, but Mid-Ohio was worse because Dixon had the foreshadowing electrical issues that we saw trip up Palou at Milwaukee. Dixon's car died on the pace laps and instead of trying to win from 13th in the debut hybrid race, Dixon lost 20 laps and pretty much ran a 40-lap test session to claim 27th. This result signaled the downfall for his season. After six top ten finishes in the first eight races, Dixon would finish outside the top ten in four of the final nine races including two results outside the top 25.

Scott Dixon's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (456 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 98
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.352
Average Finish: 9.6471

Marcus Armstrong
The reigning Rookie of the Year was back for something new in 2024: A full season! Armstrong got to run all the ovals in combination with the road and street courses he was familiar with. There were some growing pains as Armstrong had a sophomore slump of sorts. He made mistakes at some unfortunate times, but he showed good pace and kept up with his senior teammates. 

What objectively was his best race?
Armstrong picked up his first career podium finish in Detroit. Running the same strategy as his teammate and fellow countryman Dixon, Armstrong clung to a podium result with a 44-lap stint to close the race. He was able to hold off Kyle Kirkwood, but Armstrong ran out of fuel on the cool down lap. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Detroit deserves strong consideration for being Armstrong's best race, but he also held his own in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis when the two senior Ganassi cars were quick. e started eighth while Palou was on pole position and Dixon was starting sixth. Armstrong ran with Dixon the entire race and both drivers went forward. This ended up being a triple top five day for Ganassi with Palou winning while Dixon was fourth and Armstrong was fifth.

What objectively was his worst race?
Armstrong lost his engine only six laps into the Indianapolis 500. It wasn't even six laps in anger. The caution came out after the first turn accident with Tom Blomqvist, Pietro Fittipaldi and Marcus Ericsson. Armstrong lost his engine on a caution lap, an awful way for his first Indianapolis 500 to end after a lengthy rain delay. With three cars out, at least he was 30th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Armstrong had two races where he started third this season. In both races, Armstrong ran over the pole-sitter, ending his race before it started and leaving him 26th in the final classification. 

The first one was Road America, where Armstrong punted his teammate Linus Lundqvist from pole position in the opening corner of the race. This didn't end Armstrong's race, but it got him a penalty. The mechanical issues ended his race. The next one was the second Milwaukee race where Armstrong had Lundqvist plow into the back of him when the start was waved off and this sent Armstrong into Josef Newgarden in pole position. 

Milwaukee was less his fault than Road America. Road America was likely worse of the two, but on two occasions it looked like Armstrong was poised to have a great day from a great starting position, and both times, he had trouble before he could complete a corner. 

Marcus Armstrong's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (298 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.0588
Average Finish: 14.529

Linus Lundqvist
After making his IndyCar debut last year as a substitute, Lundqvist was back for a full season with Chip Ganassi Racing. The Swede had sparks of success, but he also stumbled along the way. For portions of the season, he was rather hidden in the field, but he did have a few standout performances against a splintered rookie class.

What objectively was his best race?
Lundqvist had two third-place finishes this season. The first one was at Barber Motorsports Park and the second one was at Gateway Motorsports Park. Maybe Lundqvist has a thing for "motorsports parks."

What subjectively was his best race?
I give the edge to Barber over Gateway because Gateway saw Lundqvist really benefit from other cars getting knocked out of the race. It was still a good run, but he probably should have been fifth or sixth. At Barber, Lundqvist had to stretch his fuel 34 laps while other quicker cars were around him and there was a late restart. Strategy gave him track position from 19th on the grid, but he pulled it off in a intense environment. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Lundqvist's first Indianapolis 500 ended after 27 laps when his car walked up the track from the inside of a four-wide situation in turn one. Somehow, he did not collect any other cars. Lundqvist did all he could to save it, but he slapped the barrier when he could not keep it straight on the sixth attempt. This placed him 28th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It might sound harsh because it wasn't his fault, but Road America was a massive disappointment. Lundqvist couldn't control being hit from behind, but for your maiden pole position to be see you spun in the first turn is deflating. Lundqvist did a good job recovering to finish 12th, but there is no silver lining when you are starting on pole position.

Linus Lundqvist's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (179 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 27
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 14.941
Average Finish: 15.353

Kyffin Simpson
Simpson came into the IndyCar season with low expectations after a rather underwhelming two seasons in Indy Lights. His saving grace was the sports car success he had along side his open-wheel form. This was never going to be a year where Simpson was challenging Palou and Dixon for best in the team. He had some bad days, but there more impressive days than complete disasters. 

What objectively was his best race?
Simpson's best result in the record book is 12th at St. Petersburg, which was actually 14th on the road, but improved to 12th after Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin were disqualified for the push-to-pass manipulation that was found over six weeks after the race.

What subjectively was his best race?
There are two contenders here, and both were 14th-place results. 

Barber Motorsports Park, where Simpson drove a smart race and climbed from 23rd to 14th. 

The first Iowa race, where Simpson didn't do much wrong and went from 27th to 14th. 

No one did anything all that impressive at Iowa. It was pretty much came down to smart strategy, good pit stops and not losing ground on restarts. Simpson was ahead of Dixon and Josef Newgarden at Barber. Neither of those drivers had their best days, but they didn't have accidents or broken cars. They were just slow. Simpson wasn't blisteringly quick either, but he was better on this day than two of IndyCar's best.

What objectively was his worst race?
Simpson was spun off course on lap six at Road America after contact with Christian Rasmussen. It was entirely on Rasmussen and Simpson was hard done by such a turn of events. This placed Simpson in 27th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Simpson did not tear up much equipment this season. Laguna Seca was not good when he spun on his own in turn five and spun into the path of Graham Rahal. This left him in 23rd. He also had a lazy spin on his own at Gateway that left him to finish 25th as well. He slapped the wall in turn eight at Toronto. He didn't make minor errors this season, but he made a few as you would expect any rookie would.

Kyffin Simpson's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (182 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 3
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 22.4705
Average Finish: 19.471

An Early Look Ahead
Palou and Dixon will continue, and we found out tw days ago Kyffin Simpson will continue with the team in the #8 Honda.

The third car is irrelevant to the team's success. Palou and Dixon are fine. Considering the form we have seen, we aren't going to see Ganassi fall off. Palou will continue to be a race winner and be running at the front. Even a few off days are not enough to throw Palou off championship pace. Dixon continues to pull out good results, but there are a few worrying signs from Dixon. 

In the final six races, Dixon's best starting position was ninth. He started outside the top fifteen in three of those races. His average starting position of 11.352 was the third-worst in his career. He hasn't started on the front row in 32 consecutive races. Five of his last six victories have been from starting positions outside the top five. Dixon has still been getting good results, but we aren't seeing Dixon as the man to beat on a regular basis. You could make the argument his last five victories have all come down to strategy and not speed. You could say it is six straight when you consider how he won at Nashville in 2022. Dixon is running better than most, but he has been beatable.

It doesn't help when your teammate is Palou. Palou makes everyone look pedestrian. In 2023, Dixon was in the top ten of every race but one. If it wasn't for Palou, Dixon would have controlled that championship. Ganassi still has the best 1-2 punch in IndyCar. 

The charter rules are forcing Ganassi to downsize to three cars. You must wonder what Ganassi could do if it put three serious drivers in its seats. Simpson could improve next year but he was 69 points off 18th. He was 115 points outside the top fifteen and 184 points behind tenth. Simpson only scored 182 points last year. He would need more than double his output to be in the consideration for the top ten. Simpson turned 20 years old last month, but how long a leash does he get considering how far he has to go? Even the richest sons have a limit. 

Armstrong was the best of the rest when it comes to the Ganassi drivers in 2024. He could be capable of winning races, but Ganassi could have hired Alexander Rossi, a past winner. Ganassi could have hired Théo Pourchaire, arguably the best rookie from the 2024 season. Callum Ilott was sitting out there basically the entire year. Ganassi could have done what it was once known for and hire one of the top drivers from Europe not in Formula One. It tested 2022 Formula Two champion Felipe Drugovich at Barber Motorsports Park in September. If you are talking about winners, there are better ones out there, and Ganassi allegedly likes them. 

Even with a weak third driver, Ganassi will remain a top team. It has won four of the last five championships. With Palou and Dixon still in the line up, you cannot write off another one being added in 2025.