Most championships are complete at this point. Sports car season is basically over, but it is about to start again and it has a few races left to run. The Gulf 12 Hours will take place in a few weeks, and the Asian Le Mans Series season begins in less than two weeks with a doubleheader in Sepang.
But we have to cut the season off somewhere and this year is basically complete when it comes to reviewing our 2024 predictions. We say basically because one pesky championship is not over yet. Either way, we know the answer to most of these and we know how these predictions have played out.
FIA World Endurance Championships
1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes
Correct!
This one was technically achieved in the first race of the season as Porsche went 1-2-3 with its factory cars in first and third and the Hertz Team Jota entry in second at Qatar.
Porsche then put two more cars on the podium in the second race from Imola and went one-two with Hertz Team Jota winning at Spa-Francorchamps. It was shutout from the podium at Le Mans, but had both factory cars on the podium at Interlagos. Porsche won Fuji and was second in Bahrain.
Porsche ended with 11 combined podium finishes this season, more than double the next best manufacturer. Ferrari and Toyota each combined for five podium finishes.
2. At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory
Correct!
This one was taken care of very quickly. We had eight first-time overall winners in the first four races. Each race had at least one driver pick up his first career victory.
We had Kévin Estre and Laurens Vanthoor in the opening race from Qatar.
The #7 Toyota won at Imola, a familiar winner in WEC competition, but it was the first overall victory for Nyck de Vries in only his second start in the top class.
In round three, we had Callum Ilott and Will Stevens win at Spa-Francorchamps.
At Le Mans, Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina and Nicklas Nielsen won overall.
Then we had Robert Kubica, Robert Shwartzman and Yi Yifei won at Austin.
There were 11 first-time overall winners this season.
3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more
Wrong!
The #92 Manthey PureRxcing Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Alex Malykhin and Joel Sturm had six podium finishes this season. The #92 Porsche had four podium finishes in the first five races.
Two other entries had three podium finishes. The #91 Manthey EMA Porsche of Richard Lietz, Morris Schuring and Yasser Shahin had three and the #27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Ian James, Daniel Mancinelli and Alex Riberas also had three podium finishes.
4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company
Correct!
With Porsche winning the drivers' championship in both class, it is no surprise that Porsche did it twice.
The #6 Porsche and the #92 Manthey PureRxcing won the classes in the opening round in Qatar. Two races later, the #12 Hertz Team Jota Porsche and the #91 Manthey EMA Porsche split the classes at Spa-Francorchamps.
Ferrari was the only manufacturer that won in each class this season, but not in the same race. Ferrari won twice overall, Le Mans and Austin. Ferrari also won twice in LMGT3, but it won the final two races at Fuji and Bahrain.
IMSA
5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship
Wrong!
We have already covered this partially, but this was crushing.
García and the #3 Corvette sat fifth in the championship in the final race. It looked like a long shot for the #3 Corvette to get up to third. Then it significantly out-qualifies the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW and the #14 VasserSuvillan Lexus at Petit Le Mans, the #14 Lexus retired from the race and the #3 Corvette finished ahead of the #1 BMW.
It was enough to move García up to third and for the 13th consecutive year, García has finished first or third in the championship. This was the third consecutive year García has finished third in the championship. It is bound to end, but it just never seems to.
6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA
Correct!
This one was tight, but we had exactly three drivers win in each WEC and IMSA.
The first driver to achieve it did it in consecutive weekends. Nicklas Nielsen won the 24 Hours of Le Mans and then the following weekend won in LMP2 at Watkins Glen.
Alex Riberas also won at Watkins Glen in the GTD Pro class, and then he won at LMGT3 in September at Circuit of the Americas in Austin.
It was getting a little tight on the third winner, but then the #54 AF Corse Ferrari won the LMGT3 class at Fuji with Davide Rigon as one of its drivers. Rigon won the 24 Hours of Daytona in GTD Pro in January.
It was tight, but it happened.
7. The Riley Motorsport LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5
Correct!
The #74 Riley Motorsport Oreca ended up second in the LMP2 championship and it had four podium finishes in seven races, but a tenth-place finish at Road America tanked its average finish and it finished at 4.1428. If you remove Road America, the #74 Oreca had an average finish of 3.1667 in the other six races.
8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory
Wrong!
Not only was this one wrong, but there were only four instances of pole-sitters winning a race all season.
No pole-sitter won in either prototype class in the 2024 IMSA season.
Three times did the pole-sitter in GTD Pro.
The #14 VasserSullivan did it at Sebring, the #3 Corvette did it at Mosport and the #1 Paul Miller Racing did it at Virginia International Raceway in GTD Pro.
The only GTD entry to win from pole position all season was the one race VasserSullivan entered a second Lexus at Long Beach when the #89 Lexus took the victory.
This was not close, which is interesting at how much it appears qualifying doesn't matter in IMSA. The five endurance races are understandable, but the two-hour and 45-minute races should see the fastest car over one-lap be able to put together a full race.
Let's keep an eye on this in 2025.
European Le Mans Series
9. The #22 United Autosports entry does not extends its winning streak
Correct!
Not only didn't the #22 United Autosports' entry not win a race, but no United Autosports' entry won in ELMS in 2024. United Autosports had one podium finish all season, third in the season opener at Barcelona, fittingly with the #22 entry.
This was the first season United Autosports did not win in LMP2 since 2016 when it only had entries in the LMP3 class.
10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers
Correct!
Only one Italian driver won the entire season in GT3. It was Andrea Caldarelli in the season finale driving the #63 Iron Lynx Lamborghini.
Eleven different nationalities won a race in the GT3 class in 2024. The one with the most different winners was Denmark with four different winners. The #50 Formula Racing Ferrari of Conrad Laursen, Johnny Laursen and Nicklas Nielsen won the season opener in an all-Danish effort. Michelle Gatting won at Imola as well.
Other
11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours
Well...
We don't know yet. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup was supposed to end last weekend, but the finale from Jeddah had been pushed back a week. We had already planned on doing these predictions prior to Thanksgiving. So we don't know yet, and it can go either way.
Technically, any of 12 entries could win the championship this weekend. Three entries are covered by three points and then fourth is 16 points back.
Three of the top four were top five finishers at the Spa 24 Hours. The #7 Comtoyou Racing Aston Martin of Mattia Drudi, Marco Sørensen and Nicki Thiim lead the championship on 54 points and the #7 Aston Martin won at Spa.
Three points back is the #51 AF Corse - Franchorchamps Motors Ferrari of Alessandro and Alessio Rovera, which was second at Spa. Also three points back is the #99 Tresor Attempto Racing Audi of Alex Aka, Ricardo Feller and Christopher Haase, which finished 12th overall at Spa.
The #163 GRT Grasser Racing Team Lamborghini of Franck Perera, Jordan Pepper and Marco Mapelli is fourth, 16 points back, and it was fifth at Spa.
We will wait and see how this plays out. It is on the fence and can go either way. We will update on Monday.
12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races
Wrong!
There were multiple stretches with five different manufacturers winning five consecutive races.
From race two to race six: Lamborghini, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari, BMW.
Race eight to race 12: Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG.
Race nine to race 13: Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini.
Race 11 to race 15: Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, BMW, Audi.
There were four different instances where it happened, but never did six different manufacturers win in six consecutive races. I guess five is the limit.
Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, we are sitting at 7/11 with one to be determined. Being 8/12 is a lot better than being 7/12.
