We continue our end-of-year predictions and move into the sports car realm. The thrilling period for sports car competition writes a new chapter in 2024. More manufacturers are coming. New races are coming. There will be new regulations in a few championships, new class structures. For all that was new in 2023, there was much that was the same as it ever was. However, with another year, things are bound to be shaken up eventually. There is a good chance it will be 2024.
FIA World Endurance Championships
1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes
The 2023 season might have seen the inclusion of the LMDh cars and the expansion of the Hypercar class, but it was rather one-sided.
Toyota took 11 of a possible 21 podium finishes. As a two-car team, it went 11 for 14. Ferrari took six podium finishes, Porsche had two, Cadillac and Peugeot each had one.
Cadillac had a good start to the season before have a tough close. Porsche didn't quite show great speed, however it could have picked up another podium result last year with a few things going its way.
With another year of development and who knows how the Balance of Performance will go, but we should see some more variety on the podium this season. Also, Porsche will have power in numbers. There will be five Porsches on the grid. BMW is joining the championship with a two-car effort, as is Alpine, and Lamborghini will have a car entered.
Of course, all of these manufacturers could take podium finishes off each other and we could end up with four with two podium finishes apiece.
2. At least four drivers get their first overall WEC victory
A bigger Hypercar class means many drivers who have not competed at the top level before and have not won overall before.
One of the Ferraris didn't win last year, and, if that lineup does not change for 2024, none of Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina nor Nicklas Nielsen have won overall before. That could be three drivers right there. There will also be the third Ferrari that Robert Kubica will lead with Ye Yifei as a likely driver in that entry. Neither of those two have won overall before.
We are missing the changes at Toyota with Nyck de Vries becoming a new driver in the #7 Toyota. De Vries does not have an overall victory. One victory for the #7 Toyota and the #50 Ferrari will fulfill this prediction.
With all the Porsches in Hypercar, there are a slew of drivers that have never won overall in WEC. One Porsche victory can likely take care of 75% of this prediction. Maybe I should make it higher? You know what? That is what I will do...
At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory
Take that!
3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more
To be clear, this isn't manufacturer nor race team, this is specific cars, and with 18 cars from nine manufacturers, single-car dominance is tougher to imagine.
In 2023, only one entry in GTE-AM had four podium finishes or more. That was the championship-winning #33 Corvette, which had five podium finishes. That was a class with 14 full-time cars with four manufacturers.
There are plenty of capable entries in this class. Corvette remains in the class with TF Sport. Proton Competition is running two Ford Mustangs. AF Corse is still around with Ferrari. Team WRT is fielding a a pair of BMWs. Manthey Racing has two Porsches in its stable. Iron Lynx/Dames brings Lamborghini to the series, as does United Autosports with McLarens, Akkodis ASP Team is responsible for the Lexus entries and Aston Martin is split between Heart of Racing and D'station Racing.
They are all going to see some success at some point during the 2024 season. If one stands above the rest, it will clearly deserve the championship.
4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company
With the new rules in WEC and GT3 entries getting priority based on Hypercar participation, six companies have entries in both classes. It is likely we will see one celebrating a double victory in WEC this season.
We know Toyota can win. Lexus is the question mark, but Akkodis ASP Team has been highly successful in the GT World Challenge Europe series and Lexus smashed the competition in IMSA. Ferrari is Ferrari. No one would be surprised there. The same can be said with Porsche.
On the flip side of Toyota, we know Corvette can win, but Cadillac is the question mark in Hypercar.
BMW and Lamborghini are the other two who could do this.
It will definitely happen once, but I will double down and say it will happen twice.
IMSA
5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship
I am sure I have written about the before, but do you know García's championship positions since he joined Corvette Racing as a full-time driver in 2012?
Third
First
Third
Third
Third
First
First
Third
First
First
Third
Third
García has not finished something other than first or third in a championship as a full-time driver since 2011 when he was seventh in the Daytona Prototype class in Grand-Am.
It has been a 12-year streak. Nothing lasts forever. It probably shouldn't have made it to 2024. García and Jordan Taylor entered the 2023 season finale at Petit Le Mans second in the GTD Pro championship only to have the duos worst finish of the season while WeatherTech Racing won to jump up to second.
Corvette is going to be competitive, but that doesn't mean García will be first or third again. He will have Alexander Sims as his new co-driver after Jordan Taylor left for Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti’s Acura GTP program.
6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA
This is a cross-series prediction because there will be substantial crossover between WEC and IMSA in 2024, as there always is, but for 2024 it feels like there will be even greater crossover.
Who will be running both?
There will be over two dozen drivers set to run in WEC this year, who will be running at the 24 Hours of Daytona. This includes a number of drivers who will be running multiple times in both series, a few of which will attempt to run the full season in each.
Between drivers running in both Hypercar and as endurance drivers in IMSA or drivers planning to run in GT categories in both series, there is bound to be a few drivers that see success in each championship. With the sheer number of drivers crossing over, three feels likely.
How many drivers won in both series last year?
Ben Keating
Nicolás Varrone
That's it. That's the list, and they just so happened to be co-drivers in WEC. Keating won in LMP2 in IMSA and Varrone was a member of the 2023 LMP3 winning entry at the 24 Hours of Daytona.
7. The Riley Motorsports LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5
The LMP3-era of IMSA's top class should be remembered as the Riley era. Riley Motorsports won 12 of 21 races in the LMP3 class and stood on the podium 16 times in the class' three-year run. In 2023, Riley Motorsports had an average finish of 2.57, which was inflated with a ninth in the 24 Hours of Daytona, which technically didn't count toward the LMP3 championship. Count only the championship races and Riley's average was 1.5.
Not bad, but not as good as its 1.57 average over the entire 2021 season and 1.667 over the six championship races.
With LMP3 gone, Riley has moved to LMP2 and will field an Oreca for Gar Robinson and Felipe Fraga. It has been a good combination in LMP3 competition, but with a larger and deeper class in LMP2, I don't think Riley will repeat its dominance. It should still be competitive but not averaging better than a second-place finish. Averaging a podium finish will be a mighty task as well.
8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory
Last year, in the GTP class, the pole-sitter won three times (Daytona, Sebring and Mosport).
In LMP2, the pole-sitter won zero times.
In LMP3, the pole-sitter won twice (Watkins Glen and Mosport).
In GTD Pro, the pole-sitter won four times (Daytona, Long Beach, Lime Rock Park and Road America).
In GTD, the pole-sitter won twice (Road America and Virginia International Raceway).
Last season, there were multiple class winners from pole position in three races, but never more than two class winners from pole position in a race.
In case you are wondering when was the last time three classes had a pole-sitter win in the same race, it has not happened since the American Le Mans Series and Grand-Am merged in 2014.
European Le Mans Series
9. The #22 United Autosports entry does no extends its winning streak
United Autosports has been a regular winner in the European Le Mans Series, but more specifically, its #22 entry has been a regular winner. How regular? The #22 United Autosport entry has won a race overall in ELMS for six consecutive seasons. United Autosports has won a race in seven consecutive seasons.
No other entry has a multi-year winning streak entering the 2024 season over than the #22 United Autosports entry.
However, United Autosports will have three entries in ELMS this year. The LMP2 class in ELMS will have 22 entries this season. Nothing lasts forever, and there is greater strength in this class than previous season. Ben Hanley will lead the #22 United entry alongside Marino Sato, who returns to ELMS for a second consecutive season. Filip Ugran moves over from Prema Racing. It could surely win a race, but it could conceivably not happen.
10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers
For the last three consecutive seasons, there has been at least one winner in the GTE class that had multiple Italian drivers.
Last year, the all-Italian trio of Matteo Cressoni, Matteo Cairoli and Claudio Schiavoni won at Spa-Francorchamps with Iron Lynx. Iron Lynx also had an all-Italian winning lineup in 2022 with Cressoni, Schiavoni and Davide Rigon. Gianmaria Bruni and Lorenzo Ferrari also won that year at Barcelona with Proton Competition and Christian Ried. Half of the GTE races in 2021 had multiple Italian drivers in the winning team.
There will be a few close calls, but it will not happen in 2024.
Other
11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours
GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup will have a five-race season in 2024. The second round will be the Spa 24 Hours.
Spa-Francorchamps traditionally awards more points than any other GTWCEEC race, as points are awarded to the top nine at the quarter-mark and halfway point of the race. If you do well in the Spa 24 Hours, it will bode well for your championship.
How well?
The GTWCEEC champion has been a top five finisher in the Spa 24 Hours in four consecutive seasons, the last three of which has seen the eventual champions finish on the Spa podium.
The last time the champion was not in the top five at Spa-Francorchamps was 2019 when the #563 Orange1 FFF Racing Team Lamborghini ended up eighth. Orange1 FFF Racing Team won the Barcelona finale and had podium results in two other races.
No trend lasts forever and we are due for a break.
12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races
With the proliferation of GT3 cars across many different championship, we are seeing a greater number of manufacturer participation in some series that otherwise had few brands competing. DTM was one of those series and after long being just Audi and Mercedes-Benz, and then just Audi and BMW, with a brief moment of Aston Martin entered, it has flourished with GT3 regulations.
Six manufacturers competed in DTM this year. All six won a race at some point, but there were three occasions where five manufacturers won in five consecutive races.
The season started with five different winning brands in five races: Lamborghini, Porsche, Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW.
From race three to race seven, there were five different winning manufacturers in five races: Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW, Porsche, Lamborghini.
It then happened again from race 11 to race 15: Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Porsche.
With GT3 expanding to WEC and ELMS, it will change the composition of some of the existing GT3 series, DTM included. Honda will be in the series, but I don't think we will see the same makeup of winners, at least not as we saw it in DTM in 2023.
We are beyond the halfway point in predictions. NASCAR and Formula One are done. Two more to go, and next are predictions of the two-wheel variety.
