2025 IndyCar Predictions

We have made it to the final day of 2024. The year is over. Whether it was a good year or a bad year has already been decided and cannot really be changed. We had 366 days this year. Day 366 is not going to be the difference. With that said, it is our final chance to look ahead to 2025 before we get into 2025. Four sets of predictions are complete. We end with IndyCar, as the series is about to enter a new dynamic and television partnership.

1. Will Power has at least two pole positions and on multiple track disciplines

For the first time since 2005, we had an IndyCar season where Will Power did not win a pole position. It was not for a lack of trying. Power started second in four races and he started inside the top five in 11 of 17 races. He started in every position in the top five except first. Power will enter 2025 on a 22-race pole position drought. 

At some point in 2025, that drought will end. In 19 full seasons of IndyCar competition, Power has won at least two pole positions 14 times. He has won at least four pole positions in ten seasons. Power will get back on track and he will also do it on multiple track disciplines. 

Five of his six most recent pole positions have been on ovals, and four of those have been at Iowa. He has not won pole position for a street course race since the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg. Some of these trends will change. Power could win on all three disciplines. He will win on at least two in 2025.

2. Josef Newgarden will not have consecutive finishes outside the top 20

Since August 2023, Newgarden has not been able to completely escape a funk. Entering the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course that season, Newgarden was second in the championship, 84 points behind Álex Palou with four races remaining in the season. Then he got caught in an opening lap incident with Marcus Armstrong, got trapped a lap down and finished 25th, and Newgarden hasn't been the same since. 

In the following race, Newgarden hit the wall in Gateway and finished 25th. At Laguna Seca, he was caught in an opening lap incident and trudged along to finish 21st. 

The bad run of form could not be shaken in 2024. Along with the disqualification at St. Petersburg that classified him in 26th, Newgarden had five races where he finished outside the top twenty. At the Milwaukee doubleheader, he spun out while running second and battling Marcus Ericsson, and in the second race Newgarden was hit from behind at the waved off start, ending his race before it really began. 

In the last 21 races, Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty in eight of them, and on three occasions has he had consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. In his first 111 races with Team Penske, he had only finished outside the top twenty in four races. He finished inside the top twenty in his first 65 races with the team. 

Newgarden famously (or infamously?) used the offseason prior to 2024 to refocus on driving to achieve better results. That didn't work, but he will have another chance to correct course before 2025. Some results a driver cannot control. You cannot control if you will be run over at the start of a race or if an engineer has entered the wrong code for the push-to-pass system, but Newgarden will avoid the ruts has been falling in for the better part of the last season-and-a-half. He will get back to more of who he was from 2017 through 2022.

3. Álex Palou will have consecutive finishes outside the top 20

While Newgarden has been going through a rough spell, Álex Palou has won the championship the last two seasons and has been almost untouchable during that time. 

In 2023, he did not finish worse than eighth and he won five times with ten podium finishes. In 2024, he only won twice times and only had seven podium finishes, but he had 13 top five results. No one has kept up with Palou's consistency and that has been the key to his last two championships.

We did see Palou look human in 2024. He got trapped when Newgarden spun at Detroit and that cost him a good result, relegating him to 16th. Palou spun on his own at Iowa and finished 23rd. The car had a battery issue on the pace laps for the second Milwaukee race and Palou salvaged a 19th-place finish. With Will Power caught many laps down after his seatbelt issue in Nashville, Palou did not push it and could settle with an 11th-place finish to clinch the title. 

With those last two results, Palou will enter 2025 with consecutive results outside the top ten for the first time since August 2021. For a man who has a knack for making history, he is going to make more in 2025.

How many times has Palou finished outside the top twenty in consecutive races in his IndyCar career?

The answer is zero! It has never happened. Despite finishing 23rd on debut, Palou had never had consecutive races where he was in the bottom-third of the field whether that because of his own mistake, lack of speed or mechanical gremlins. In his first 81 starts, Palou has finished outside the top twenty in six races. Three of those came in his rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing. 

Palou is going to remain consistent and quick. He will win multiple races and he will be in the discussion, if not leading the discussion, for the championship into the final race, but if Josef Newgarden can fall into a rut and Scott Dixon, who had three finishes outside the top twenty in 2024, can fall into a rut, Palou can fall into a rut as well. It might not be for long, but any time in a rut is long enough. 

We are due for Palou having a few hands go against him and having some extra work to control the championship.

4. Colton Herta will end the year with enough FIA Super License points

Aren't you tired hearing about Colton Herta and Super License points? I am!

For nearly four years now, the biggest topic of conversation around Herta has been his lack of Super License points and it preventing him from getting a shot at Formula One, whether that be with the Andretti-led Cadillac program or with possibly Red Bull's junior team. Herta has ben a few short the entire time, and the only way to get Super License points is through results. Results were not Herta's strong point there for a few seasons.

While he was third and fifth in the 2020 and 2021 IndyCar seasons, Herta followed that with a pair of tenth-place championship finishes. Only the top ten IndyCar championship finishers earn Super License points, and tenth only pays a point. A driver needs a combined 40 points over the previous three seasons to qualify for a Super License. A combined two points over two seasons will not get you there. 

The good news for Herta is he woke up in 2024 and finished second in the championship, earning him 30 points. He will be dropping a point for his tenth in the 2022 season, but that leaves him with 31 points, needing only nine to qualify for a Super License. The problem is the points become hard to get very quickly. 

While the champion gets 40 and second gets 30. If you finish fourth, you only get ten. If you finish fifth, you only get eight. Herta could be fifth in the championship and be a point short of a Super License. What could work in Herta's favor is a driver can earn a single Super License point if he completed at least 100km in a Formula One free practice session during a grand prix weekend, and a driver can earn up to ten points through free practice.

Theoretically, Herta could finish fifth in the championship and then run a free practice at Austin with a team and that will get him to the 40-point threshold. 

I think Herta will finish inside the top four in the championship and not need the practice session. He is coming off his best season in IndyCar and Andretti Global is a more-focused organization. Herta was successful on all circuit disciplines. He picked up his first oval victory of his career. He can finish in the top four of the championship and not need to do backflips to secure Super License qualification. 

5. Scott Dixon will win a race from pole position

We are accustomed to Dixon winning races. He has won at least one race in 20 consecutive seasons. He is second all-time in victories with 58. Last season was the 18th time in Dixon's career where he won multiple races in a season. Winning is an expectation for Dixon every season.

What we should not expect from Dixon is pole positions. 

The New Zealander has gone two consecutive seasons without a pole position, and he has not won a pole position in five of the last seven seasons. Only twice has he won a pole position over the last 115 races. In that same time frame, Dixon has won 17 races. Only Josef Newgarden has won more in that timeframe. For a man who commonly finishes first, it is uncommon to see Dixon start first. 

Life is a number's game, and with someone has talent as Dixon, he will eventually win another pole position. It will click on setup and timing and Dixon will nail a lap to put him on top, but this prediction goes a step further. Not only will Dixon win a pole position, but he will turn that into a race victory.

Dixon has not won a race from pole position since Watkins Glen in 2016. To give you an idea how long ago that was, Dixon hit the 40-victory milestone with that result. He has won 18 times since! Of those 18 victories since he last won from pole position, Dixon has won from outside the top ten in four races and he has won from outside a top five starting spot ten times in that span!

It has been eight years. We are due for Dixon to qualify first at a race and then make it look easy over a two-hour drive. 

6. There will be a first-time winner with at least 50 career starts

Fifty starts is a good indicator of what a driver's career will look like. In contemporary IndyCar, three full seasons get you 51 starts. That is a good point where we find out how the rest of the grid views you. Are you seen as someone that a team must have or will you be someone who will always need funding to get on the grid? 

When it comes to winning, 50 starts is a pivotal point in time. Of the 299 recognized race winners in IndyCar history, only 28 drivers took 50 starts or more to get their first career victory. Of those 28 drivers, nine of them only won once in their careers. Only six of those drivers won more than five races in their career, and only two of them won at least ten races. Five of those 28 drivers won a championship. 

The 50 career start milestone is a pretty good barometer for what affect a driver will have on IndyCar. 

It has been a while though since we had a truly veteran driver score a first career victory. The most recent first-time winner with over 50 career starts was Josef Newgarden at Barber Motorsports Park in 2015. There was a period where we saw these type of first-time winners with greater regularity. Much of that had to do with The Split, but for us to be going on nine years without a first-time winner with at least 50 starts is a bit of a surprise. Like many predictions for 2025, we are due. 

Who could fulfill this prediction? 

Of the announced drivers for the 2025 season, the driver with the most starts without a victory is Conor Daly. Daly has made 115 starts and he has yet to win a race. He is set to become the driver with the third-most starts before a first career victory and he could be the driver with the most starts before a first victory if he does not win one of the first 14 races. 

Daly has shown good form on ovals, but he will be with Juncos Hollinger Racing. While Daly and JHR did combine for a runner-up result in Milwaukee, they will have some work to do to beat the entire IndyCar field.

Jack Harvey only has the Indianapolis 500 confirmed with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Harvey has 93 starts so he fits the criteria.

Santino Ferrucci has 77 career starts and no victories. Ferrucci has been in the picture late in the Indianapolis 500 the last few years, and like Daly, Ferrucci has had strong runs on ovals. From what we saw in 2024, it would not be all that surprising if Ferrucci were to win at Iowa or Milwaukee. He is the only driver to have six top ten finishes in his first six Indianapolis 500 starts. The Speedway isn't out of the question either. 

The only other driver with more than 50 starts but no victories that is somewhat in consideration is Romain Grosjean. Grosjean does not have a seat for 2025 at the moment, but he has made 64 starts. Dale Coyne Racing is the only team with open seats. Grosjean nearly won multiple races with Coyne in 2021. He arguably should have won once that year. If a reunion is in order, maybe we see a breakthrough. 

Those are the four drivers who would automatically fulfill the prediction. There are a few drivers just short of 50 starts that could do it but they cannot win too soon in 2025.

David Malukas has 44 starts and no victories to his name. Callum Ilott could not win until the 12th race, the second Iowa race, to qualify for this prediction. Devlin DeFrancesco and Sting Ray Robb could not win until the penultimate race at Milwaukee.

If we are being honest with ourselves, this prediction is saying one of Daly, Ferrucci, Malukas or Grosjean, if he gets a ride, will win in 2025. 

7. There will not be consecutive races where the opening lap is under caution

This wasn't really noted during the 2024 IndyCar season, but on reflection it was surprising to notice. A lot of races didn't make it through lap one this past season.

There were seven races in 2024 that had an opening lap incident. Then there was Long Beach, which saw the first lap take place under caution, and Mid-Ohio, which started under caution due to Scott Dixon's car stopping on the final pace laps. Nine races in 2024 did not see the first lap completed under green flag conditions.

There was a three-race stretch that covered the Indianapolis 500, Detroit and Road America where there was an opening lap incident. Mid-Ohio and the first Iowa race saw another pair of consecutive races without a first lap completed under green flag conditions.

One, I think IndyCar will see a correction and we will not have as many races with opening lap incidents as we did in 2024. Two, if this does happen, I don't think they will be in consecutive races. It might be alternating races, like we saw from the first Iowa race through the second Milwaukee race, but it will not be as common in 2025 to the point we have are expecting the first lap incident. 

8. Marcus Ericsson will finish in the top nine of oval points

Ericsson's first season with Andretti Global was likely not as strong as he hoped for. Not all of that was his own making. There were some growing pains, and that set Ericsson back after having finished sixth in the championship for three consecutive seasons. He dropped down to 15th, his worst championship finish since he was 17th in his rookie season in 2019.

Part of the problem were Ericsson's oval results. In seven oval races, Ericsson finished outside the top twenty in five of them. He was caught in the opening lap accident of the Indianapolis 500 when Tom Blomqvist spun. An air gun problem set him back in the second Iowa race and trapped him two laps down. He had engine issues at Gateway. There was the aforementioned accident with Newgarden in Milwaukee. His season ended when he brushed the barrier with about 70 laps remaining in Nashville. 

With that combination of results, Ericsson was 21st in oval points with only 81 points to his name. In the previous two seasons, Ericsson finished second in oval points and sixth in oval points with 224 points and 143 points respectively.

I don't think Ericsson will hit whammies like he was in 2024 on ovals again in 2025. We know what he can do. At his best, he should finish in the top third of drivers on ovals. He should get back to that status in the new season.

9. The Thermal Club race will have at least 150 total passes

IndyCar's first visit to The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California did not receive much fanfare. For starters, there weren't that many fans to begin with, but the non-championship race with a prize that was only half of what was promoted was met with disdain almost immediately and throughout the entire weekend. In 2025, Thermal Club will host a proper championship race.

Passing was a concern with the non-championship round and we saw two rather lackluster heat races, the second of which registered no passes for position. The final race was not much better, but the first half of the race saw some drivers laying back in hopes of making a rush forward in the final ten laps on less-worn tires.

That strategy did provide for a lively second-half, as Colton Hera drove up to fourth. 

Between the three parts and 38 laps of the non-championship round there were only 39 total passes, not brilliant, but we did see high-tire wear over a course of a stint, and that could play well for a full race around Thermal like we will see in 2025. 

It might not be a spectacular race, but Thermal could be more competitive than everyone expects. It might not change the perception of the race, but it could still be something respectable.

In the six IndyCar races held on permanent road courses in 2024, the average number of total passes in those races was 276 with a median of 279.5. Only one race featured fewer than 150 passes. Mid-Ohio had 116. 

There are still concerns about the Thermal layout and what kind of racing it allows, but if the tire wear remains high and you combined it with a race distance between 200 and 215 miles, which adds fuel strategy, we are not going to see a complete procession for two hours. 

10. Among the 11 full-time teams, Prema will finish at least eighth in total top ten finishes

Prema is entering IndyCar and increasing the number of full-time organizations in the series to 11. For its debut lineup, Prema is bringing a mix of experience and the unknown. Callum Ilott, a veteran of 38 IndyCar starts, will lead the team, while Robert Shwartzman, a Formula Three champion, Formula Two vice-champion and FIA World Endurance Championship race winner, will be a new addition to the series. 

At time of writing, Prema has yet to participate in a test as an IndyCar team. We do not know where Prema falls among the existing teams. Ilott has been a good driver in IndyCar, usually running in mid-pack equipment. Shwartzman was a promising prospect and was a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy. 

Last year in IndyCar, ten teams scored at least one top ten finish. Only one of those teams was a part-timer (Dreyer & Reinbold Racing at Indianapolis). Dale Coyne Racing was the only full-time team without a top ten finish. 

Finishing eighth out of 11 full-time teams does not sound like accomplishing much, but every IndyCar team is capable of getting good results on a given day. While five teams exceeded ten top ten finishes during the 2024 season, the other four full-time teams finished with either nine top ten finishes or eight top ten finishes. 

If Prema can enter IndyCar and score eight or nine top ten finishes, I think that must be considered a good year, especially since it would likely not finish last among teams in total top ten finishes. If Prema were to break ten top ten finishes in a season, it would put the organization in the top half of the grid. 

There will likely be a few tough outings, but Prema has the drivers to put together some respectable days. Ilott was getting top five finishes at Juncos Hollinger Racing. Shwartzman will be learning, but we have seen Christian Lundgaard enter and become a contender early. Marcus Armstrong, a past teammate of Shwartzman's, has been quick and scored good results. If it clicks, Shwartzman could pull out some impressive results. 

Looking at the rest of the grid and knowing the struggles teams have had, I think Prema can score more top ten finishes than Coyne, Juncos Hollinger Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing. It could even edge out Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. 

11. There will be a change to the IndyCar practice structure

This is factoring in the new television contract with Fox, which says all practice sessions will be broadcasted on FS1 or FS2. This is a big change for IndyCar, as previously no practice sessions were on cable television. Every session was available on Peacock, and the openness of streaming allowed IndyCar practice to be IndyCar practice without the broadcaster dictating how the session was run.

IndyCar practice could be 45 minutes with a 20-minute delay in the middle due to a red flag. Peacock was not beholden to a time window. If there was a 30-minute delay during the session, Peacock could show all 75 minutes. If IndyCar wanted to try a new practice structure, like it did in 2024, where every car will get 45 minutes of practice time but it took place over a 70-minute window, that works for Peacock. 

With FS1 or FS2, those cable channels have timeslots. Something will be following an IndyCar practice session. If it is one of FS1's many talk shows, FS1 isn't going to hang with IndyCar for an extra ten or 15 minutes for practice. Television windows are not accommodating to 75-minute sessions. It is also less likely IndyCar will be given 90 minutes for practice. Anything within 60 minutes is good.

I expect in the weeks leading up to St. Petersburg an announcement about practice changing, even if only minor, to every session being a 45-minute session and it will be an all-skate, which will clutter the racetrack and annoy some teams, but this is what is necessary with this new television deal. 

I would also not be surprised if qualifying is tweaked for road and street courses because road and street course qualifying has usually taken about 70-75 minutes to complete without any issues. IndyCar might get a 90-minute television window for qualifying, but I also believe Fox will likely want that in a tidy 60-minute window, especially if it is leading into a baseball game on a Saturday. 

Be prepared for changes.

12. At least one race outside the Indianapolis 500 will have a car fail to qualify

With the introduction of the charter system to IndyCar, there will be a cap on number of starters at every race on the 2025 calendar. 

The 25 charter entries will all be guaranteed a spot in every race outside of the Indianapolis 500. Every race besides the Indianapolis 500 will be limited to 27 starters. With 27 full-time entries anticipated, every race is at full capacity before we even get into the season. If any team wishes to field an additional entry or if a new team looks to run an IndyCar race, the non-chartered entries will all compete for those final two spots.

Prema's two entries are currently the only non-chartered teams entering the races outside the Indianapolis 500. As long as no one else shows up, Prema will be safe. If one additional entries appears then Prema will be at risk of an entry missing a race.

Last season saw one race feature 28 starters besides the Indianapolis 500. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entered a fourth car at Portland. 

As much as everyone believes that no team will field an additional car outside of Indianapolis, if there is enough money and interest, an additional entry can form for a race. I don't think the big teams will do it, but I believe at one race and additional entry will form and there will be a case of 28 cars with 27 available starts.

This is IndyCar after all. There is bound to be one weekend where everyone will feel uncomfortable about a car missing the Gateway race or Laguna Seca race.

And that is it for 2024! Feel free to check out any of the other four predictions done for Formula One, NASCAR, sports car racing and motorcycle racing. We will be back to normal at the start of 2025 as we begin our preview period before series begin competition.

2025 Motorcycle Predictions

We are into the final days of 2024, the final two to be more specific. Is this the final week of 2024 or the first week of 2025? Whose week begins on Wednesday? Let's consider this a transition period. One year is over even if there is time remaining on the clock. One year has yet to begin even if we have not changed our calendars. Everything will start to be serious next week. All the holidays will be behind us and all we will have is the slog of winter ahead. 

Don't worry! We have something to fill this uncertain time. Motorcycle predictions! From a variety of championships on a variety of surfaces. We will cover the globe in these 12 predictions, and some are timely with the start of the Supercross season less than two weeks away.

MotoGP

1. Marc Márquez will reach 100 career pole positions

Moving to Ducati provided the career renaissance we all expected for Márquez. On a year-old Ducati at Gresini, Márquez was back to winning races and gave Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martín a hassle despite both those riders being on the new Desmosedici GP24. 

For 2025, Márquez will be a factory Ducati rider and on a level playing field with Bagnaia. Many think this will be another leap forward for Márquez and it makes him a championship threat. That is sound thinking. Not only will he be after a title, but a number of milestones as well. 

Márquez already holds the record for most pole positions in grand prix motorcycle racing with 94, 25 ahead of the next closest rider. Six pole positions would make him the first to reach 100 in a career. On the year-old Ducati, Márquez had two pole positions. The new Ducati should bring him to a higher level and hitting six pole positions should not be difficult. 

2. The "sprint champion" will score fewer than 150 points

MotoGP has had sprint races for two seasons and in each of those two years Jorge Martín has scored the most points from sprint races. In 2023, Martín scored 168 points in sprint races, and in 2024 he scored 171 points. The 2024 results decided the championship. Martín outscored Francesco Bagnaia by 43 points in sprint races, overcoming the 33 point deficit between Martín and Bagnaia from grand prix races.

With Martín moving to Aprilia, it feels unlikely he will be able to match his sprint results achieved on the Pramac Racing Ducati. It opens the door for everyone else to make up ground in sprint races, but I do not think we will see someone win seven sprint races and finish on the sprint podium in 16 races. 

A few riders will score more sprint points, but not necessarily score significantly more. Martín's total will come down as well. I think sprint results will be a little more balance, which means it could still be crucial to the final championship result.

3. On at least one occasion will there be three consecutive races with three different manufacturers victorious

Last year saw two manufacturers win in MotoGP.

Ducati - 19

Aprilia - 1

Maverick Viñales won the third race of the season in Austin and that was the only non-Ducati victory the entire season.

Ducati will remain strong and the manufacturer to beat, but too much has changed to think Ducati will remain as dominant as it was. 

Jorge Martín has moved to Aprilia. No offense to Franco Morbidelli, Fermín Aldeguer and Álex Márquez, but I do not think those three can do what Marc Márquez accomplished on a year-old bike even if it is a year-old Ducati. KTM has a hungry Pedro Acosta looking for a victory while having a steady hand in Brad Binder, and it has added Viñales and Enea Bastianini at the Tech3 operation. 

I don't think we can believe in Yamaha and Honda just yet, but I think we could see a period where a Ducati, a Aprilia and a KTM each win over a three-race stretch. 

4. The difference between the top two riders on Japanese bikes will be less than 50 points

Speaking of the Japanese manufacturers, oof, I don't think it will be great in 2025. It might get better. It could not get much worse, but I do not think we are going to see a Honda or a Yamaha win in clear conditions. Fabio Quartararo or Jack Miller could work some magic in the wet, but I am not holding my breath on any of those eight riders being contenders for victories.

The best rider from a Japanese manufacturer in 2024 was Quartararo, 13th in the championship on 113 points. The next closest rider from a Japanese manufacturer was Johann Zarco in 17th on 55 points. That is a difference of 58 points.

Making up eight points is not much, but nothing has proved to be easy for these two manufacturers in the last few seasons. It feels like Yamaha will be better of the two, and Miller should bring a fight to Quartararo.

5. David Alonso's longest winning streak is not greater than four races

After winning 14 races in the 2024 Moto3 season on his way to a championship, Alonso's next act will come in Moto2. Remaining with the CFMoto Aspar Team, Alonso joins a pretty competitive championship. It will not be as easy as last year, a season where he ended with seven consecutive victories. 

I do not expect records to fall again. The most victories in the 2024 Moto2 season was four. No rider has ever won five consecutive races in the Moto2 era. No rider has won at least five consecutive races in the middle category of grand prix racing since Marco Melandri won six consecutive 250cc races in 2002. 

Alonso will do well, he might even win the championship, but I am not expecting him to continue his record-shattering tear. If he does, well, then we might be watching something special.

6. Moto3 will be the closest championship margin among the top three classes

After being the greatest championship margin in 2024, Moto3 will be the reverse in 2025 and be the closest.

Alonso won the Moto3 title by 165 points over Daniel Holgado. That same margin covered Holgado in second and Tatsuki Suzuki in 14th. Forty points decided the Moto2 title and ten points decided the MotoGP title. 

With Alonso leaving, a vacuum is created in Moto3, and I am not sure one rider will sweep in and be close to doing a fraction of what Alonso accomplished. Those 421 points the Colombian scored will have to go to someone, but I don't think any one rider will take on the bulkhead of that total. I expected greater distribution over the entire field, and what could end up being a tighter championship fight while Moto2 and MotoGP could see one rider pull away a little more.

World Superbike

7. Toprak Razgatlioglu will have more third-place finishes in the final four rounds than he will in the first eight rounds

After a sensational season in 2024, Razgatlioglu will have a tough act to follow. Though he missed two rounds after suffering an injury in practice at Magny-Cours, and racing the final portion of the season banged up, topping 18 victories, 13 of which were consecutive, is no easy task. The Turkish rider will remain as the one to beat in World Superbike. 

Along with 18 victories, Razgatlioglu stood on the podium 27 times in 30 starts. Of those 27 podium finishes, ten were runner-up results and two were third-place finishes. Those third place finishes were in the first SuperPole race of the season at Phillip Island and in the second full race of the Barcelona weekend, the sixth race of the season. After that, he never finished third again in 2024.

For 2025, we will see an inverse. Razgatlioglu will have more third-place finishes in the final four rounds, 12 races, than he will have in the first eight rounds, 24 races. I am not sure why, but things change. You cannot always finish first or second.

8. At least two rounds will feature three different winners

There have been six World Superbike seasons with the current three-race weekend format, two full races with a SuperPole race in-between. In those six seasons, there have been seven race weekends where three different riders won. It did not happen in 2019 or 2022, but it happened three times in 2020, twice in 2021 and then once in each of the last two seasons. 

Razgatlioglu will be hard to beat, but there are enough good riders that we could see two weekends where two other riders come out on top. Razgatlioglu could win the first race and then Danilo Petrucci could win the SuperPole race with Álvaro Bautista winning race two of the weekend. Maybe Razgatlioglu and BMW teammate Michael van der Mark split a weekend and Bautista wins the SuperPole race in the middle. There could be a wet SuperPole race and Jonathan Rea could take an unexpected victory while afterward in a dry race two, Razgatlioglu wins with Nicolò Bulega having already won the day before. 

It doesn't happen often, but I think we are due for two weekends in 2025 where there are no repeat winners.

9. None of the top five riders in the championship miss a race

We know Razgatlioglu missed two full rounds after his practice accident at Magny-Cours, but Álvaro Bautista also missed the second full race from Magny-Cours after a SuperPole race accident. Alex Lowes missed the second full race from Aragón after a SuperPole accident. Danilo Petrucci missed the entire Assen round. 

The only rider in the top five of the championship to start every race was vice-champion Nicolò Bulega. 

We are going to see better health and fortune for the top riders in 2025. All five of the top five in the final championship will start every race. There will be no wondering "what if" or thinking a rider could be a spot or two higher if a round wasn't missed. There will be full participation and no doubt about what has occurred. 

Supercross/Motocross

10. At least one Supercross podium will feature three riders that do not finish in the top three of the championship

Supercross has only gotten deeper looking to 2025. The 2024 season had six different winners from five different manufacturers. The field has only gotten tougher this season. 

In 2024, at least one of the eventual top three championship finishers were on the podium in every race. In seven of 17 rounds, only one of the eventual championship top three were on the podium. In 2023, every race had at least one of the championship top three on the podium and in five races was only one of the podium finishers a top three championship finisher.

With the quality of the field, I believe there will be one night where the top three finishers will not end up being the championship top three when the season ends at Salt Lake City in May. 

11. Jorge Prado will be the top finishing European rider in the Supercross championship

One of the reasons why it has become much more competitive for the 2025 Supercross season is the introduction of the two-time World Motocross championship Jorge Prado. The Spaniard won the World Championship the last two years, and come January 5, the 24-year-old will compete full-time in the AMA Supercross season.

Switching to Kawasaki, Prado made his Supercross debut last year when he ran the first four rounds with Gas Gas. He had promising moments, but he was learning the law of the land in Supercross. He was seventh in his second start at San Francisco and he won a heat race that weekend. 

Prado might not dominate the championship, but he will be competitive and he will not be an afterthought. There will be a few races where he will be a key player, and I think he will win a race. Jason Anderson was the top Kawasaki rider in the championship last season. Winless, Anderson was fifth in the championship with four podium finishes and 11 top five results.

Based on his ability and as long as he remains healthy, Prado should be the top European rider in the championship. His main competition will be Ken Roczen and Dylan Ferrandis. Ferrandis is on a customer Honda. The Frenchman can get good results but he is not going to be competing for race victories. Roczen can win races and he can finish on the podium, but the German's issue is he is bound to have a few off nights and he struggles to stay healthy. 

Based on points per start, Roczen was on track for 270.78 points and Ferrandis was on pace for 208.25 points. That would have placed those two in sixth and ninth in the championship respectively, an improvement of one spot and three spots from their actual championship finishes. 

I think Prado can finish in the top five of the championship, not necessarily win it but match Anderson's output and take fifth, possibly be a little bit better and take fourth. 

12. Neither Jett Lawrence nor Haiden Deegan will win SuperMotocross World Championships

In two seasons of the SuperMotocross World Championship, there have been two riders to win the championships in each category. Jett Lawrence and Haiden Deegan. Lawrence has won both 450cc titles. Deegan has claimed both 250cc titles.

That will not continue in 2025. Nothing lasts forever, and frankly we are a little lucky to have Lawrence and Deegan each win twice in two years. In 2023, Deegan had to win the final round from Los Angeles to take the 250cc title from Jo Shimoda. In that same year, Chase Sexton went down in the final race while leading to gift Lawrence the 450cc title. In 2024, Jett Lawrence finished tied with his brother Hunter for the 450cc title only to take the title on tiebreaker.

Both Lawrence and Deegan are excellent riders, but there is other top talent out there, and with the nature of the SuperMotocross championship being three rounds, the door is open for someone else to sneak through and claim the crown. That happens in both categories in 2025.

Four down, one to go! If you missed the Formula One predictions, NASCAR predictions or sports car predictions, feel free to check those out. We end the year as we normally do with IndyCar predictions.

2025 Sports Car Predictions

We will end this week looking into the sports car world as we have 2025 coming more into focus with each passing second. For the sports car world, competition comes quickly after the calendar flips. It does not take look for us to get into big endurance races from all across the globe. There always seems to be something new in sports car racing, and that will be the case again with the introduction of the Aston Martin Valkyrie program. Aston Martin aside, there are plenty of things to watch across a variety of categories.

FIA World Endurance Championships

1. The pole-sitter will be classified in at least seven of eight races

The fastest qualifier is usually a good car. It might not win all the time, but it is good. It is expected to be competitive. You are more likely to win from pole position than from last place, even in WEC's Hypercar class, which does not feature the greatest number of entries.

However, in 2024, the pole-sitter failed to finish in three of eight WEC races. Because WEC isn't the longest season, three retirements is quite a lot. I think there will be a correction in 2025. We are not going to see the pole-sitter fail to be running as often as we did this past season. 

I will leave the door open that in at least one race the pole-sitter falls out of a race, but not more than that.

2. At least two manufacturers that did not win in LMGT3 in 2024 do win in 2025

The first year with GT3 cars in WEC was rather successful. Four manufacturers were victorious. It should be noted that rather coincidentally that all four winners were past participants in WEC's GTE class. Not sure if there is any correlation but it is a note. 

While four manufacturers won, five did not. Lamborghini, McLaren, Chevrolet, Ford and Lexus all went winless. Lamborghini will not be back, but Mercedes-AMG enters the championship in its place. Those five other manufacturers combined for five podium finishes. Only one of those was a runner-up result. 

At least two new manufacturers win in 2025. TF Sport's Corvettes went second and third in the Bahrain finale. Mercedes-AMG has yet to find a GT3 series it does not win in. Lexus should be competitive. McLaren will have a good shot at a win. Things will change this season.

3. Each Cadillac entry will get a podium finish

In its final season with Chip Ganassi Racing running the program, Cadillac’s best finish was a fourth in Austin. With Team Jota taking over, Cadillac will have two entries in the world championship. The #12 Cadillac V-Series.R will have Sébastien Bourdais, Alex Lynn and Jenson Button behind the wheel. Earl Bamber, Norman Nato and Will Stevens will drive the #38 Cadillac.

Team Jota won at Spa-Francorchamps with the Porsche 963, and the #12 entry was the sixth-best in the championship. 

Cadillac had a good 2023 season in WEC. Its one entry was fifth in the championship. Last year, Cadillac scored 42 points over the eight races, though it won pole position in Fuji. In IMSA, Cadillac has been able to win endurance races and a championship. That success has not translated to WEC yet.

It might not be a championship, but Cadillac should be a little more competitive and it will have two capable entries to get results. Both will shine at times in 2025.

4. There will be at least two overall winners with a driver winning in his home country

Last year, no WEC race featured a victorious native-son overall. The previous two seasons had seen home country winners. Both of those were at Fuji with Ryō Hirakawa in 2022 and Kamui Kobayashi in 2023. Fun fact, the last three home country winners have not been European. Gustavo Menezes won with Rebellion Racing at Austin in 2020. The last European driver to win a race at home was Mike Conway with Toyota in the season opener for the 2019-20 super season at Silverstone. 

While there are eight races on the 2025 WEC calendar, only four will likely feature a natives in the Hypercar class. We are not going to see a Qatari nor a Bahraini. There is a good chance there will not be an American nor a Brazilian either. I like the chances at the other four races.

One, Toyota is going to be competitive at Fuji. Ferrari is a good option to win at Imola. Porsche has two French drivers, one in each of its entries and Porsche has this things with winning at Le Mans. That is also without taking into consideration the two French drivers at Cadillac, four French drivers at Alpine and at least one with possibly more French drivers at Peugeot. Of the 18 full-time Hypercar entries, at least seven will have a French driver. The Vanthoor brothers represent Belgium in the top class and it just so happens there is a race at Spa-Francorchamps.

We had no home winners in 2024. We will see at least two in 2025.

IMSA

5. The overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races at some point

Entering 2025, IMSA has not had a winner from pole position in GTP in 12 consecutive races. The most recent victory was with Meyer Shank Racing at Mosport in 2023. Earlier in 2023 was the most recent time IMSA saw consecutive races won from pole position. That was with Meyer Shank Racing with its illegal tire pressures at Daytona and then with Whelen Racing at Sebring. 

A year after no winners from pole position, IMSA will have one occasions where the overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races.

6. At least three LMP2 races feature a class winner with a Formula One-experienced driver

The LMP2 class will feature a stout collection of drivers in 2025. With a few driver changes and manufacturer alliances changing in the GTP class, LMP2 is much stronger on the professional front, especially with drivers with Formula One experience.

Sébastien Bourdais moves to LMP2 with the Cadillac program leaving Chip Ganassi Racing for Wayne Taylor Racing. Bourdais will be with Tower Motorsports. Pietro Fittipaldi is driving for Pratt Miller Motorsports as the PMM joins LMP2. Fittipaldi made two Formula One starts in 2020. Paul di Resta will be back with United Autosports. Felipe Massa will be back for the 24 Hours of Daytona with Riley Motorsports.

LMP2 will be a sneaky good class and we will see top drivers lead teams to victories. There will be a spell where we see those with history on the grand prix grid.

7. The top three in the GTD Pro Endurance Cup championship will all be full-time entries

In 2024, the top three entries in GTD Pro in the Endurance Cup were the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW (43 points), the #62 Risi Competizione Ferrari (41 points) and the #19 Iron Lynx Lamborghini (39 points). Risi and Iron Lynx were Endurance Cup-only teams. Risi won the 24 Hours of Daytona and Iron Lynx won at Petit Le Mans.

In 2025, GTD Pro will see the top three in the Endurance Cup all be full-time entries, not a complete reverse from this past season, but a big change nonetheless. There are plenty of capable full-time teams in GTD Pro. They will be tough to beat in the endurance races. The endurance-only teams will hold their own, but they will not be as strong as they were in 2024.

8. Renger van der Zande's winning streak ends at eight consecutive seasons

Perhaps this should not be as big of a surprise, but van der Zande has won an IMSA race overall in eight consecutive seasons. He has also won in 11 consecutive seasons after winning in the Prototype Challenge for three consecutive years. 

As harsh as its sounds, I think van der Zande comes up short in 2025. After seven seasons with Cadillac, van der Zande moves to Acura with Meyer Shank Racing. We know MSR is a capable team and it knows the Acura ARX-06, but this is MSR returning after a year away and it is now a two-car team. The #93 Acura, van der Zande's car, is effectively the new team. Nick Yelloly joins from BMW to round out the program.

This does not feel as strong of an entry as we have seen van der Zande in over the last few seasons. It will be tough for it to be the top Acura let alone the best GTP car period. GTP is a tough class, and we just saw the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac go winless in 2024 with Pipo Derani and Jack Aitken. If Derani can go winless in a season, van der Zande can go winless in a season. 

All good things must come to an end, and I think we will see something not seen since 2016.

European Le Mans Series

9. At least two different Americans win a race

American drivers combined to win zero races in ELMS last season. For 2025, there are already six Americans confirmed for ELMS participation. 

In LMP2, Logan Sargeant will be with IDEC Sport. Rodrigo Sales and P.J. Hyett will each be in pro-am LMP2 entries with TDS Racing and AO by TF respectively. Wyatt Brichacek is going to be in LMP3 with DKR Engineering. Gustavo Menezes will return to full-time competition with an Iron Lynx Mercedes-AMG in LMGT3. Scott Noble will drive a Ferrari for JMW Motorsport. 

The numbers are there. Sargeant is the favorite. It will be tough for Sales and Hyett to win overall as a pro-am in LMP2, but it is not out of the question. Menezes is making a change to GT racing after years in prototypes. However, I think we will see more American winners.

10. LMGT3 will have different British drivers win in consecutive races

Duncan Cameron won at Circuit Paul Ricard with Spirit of Race Ferrari in the LMGT3 class. It was the only victory for a British driver in the LMGT3 class. 

ELMS has not had British winners in consecutive races in the GT class since the first two races of the 2018 season. Liam Griffin and Alex MacDowall won at Circuit Paul Ricard. Cameron then won at Monza.

Cameron will be back in LMGT3 in 2025, but ELMS' GT class, but there will be a few other Brits in the class. Ben Tuck and Andrew Gilbert will each be in a Kessel Racing entry. Michael Wainwright is set for a  ride with GR Racing. There are also a number of open seats that could be occupied by British drivers. If Cameron wins in 2025, he will not be the only one and there will be another Brit not too far behind.

Other

11. The closest finish in an Intercontinental GT Challenge race will be greater than four seconds 

IGTC does have a knack for close races. 

The Nürburgring 24 Hour was decided by 0.603 seconds, and that wasn't even the closest race in the 2024 IGTC season! The Indianapolis 8 Hours saw Team WRT BMW win by 0.260 seconds over the Wright Motorsports Porsche. Even the Bathurst 12 Hour was decided by just over 2.6 seconds. 

After a year of close finishes, we are going to see a year for fewer close finishes. Four seconds is close, but that will be the closest it gets in 2025. 

The upcoming IGTC season will see the return of the Suzuka 1000km. There will be one more chance for a close finish, but I don't think they will be as close as we saw in 2024.

12. Ben Barnicoat will win a proper class on at least three different continents in at least two different championships

Barnicoat is a bit of an under-appreciated driver, but he has been rather successful with the Lexus program  in IMSA. For 2025, we will see Barnicoat move to Lexus' WEC program with Akkodis ASP Team.

It is not clear how much Barnicoat will run in IMSA, but he has won seven races in three full seasons in IMSA. He could lead Lexus to WEC glory to the surprise of no one. Whether or not Barnicoat is full-time in both championships or an endurance driver in IMSA, he is going to be competing in multiple series, and I believe he will be winning in multiple series as well in multiple corners of the globe.

We are beyond halfway in our 2025 predictions. With Formula One and NASCAR also in the bag, we will have some two-wheel predictions come Monday.

2025 Formula One Predictions

Happy Boxing Day! Christmas is over and we have a few more days before the year comes to a close. This brings us to our Boxing Day tradition, Formula One predictions! The 2024 season had the final result we expected, but boy did the 2024 season not go as we thought. It has led to big dreams for what 2025 will look like. Change is now expected, and these predictions reflect that mindset.

1. None of the top five championship finishers in 2024 finish in the same position in 2025

After how the 2024 season ended and all the movement during the silly season, we are going to see some changes in 2025. This is saying Max Verstappen will not win a fifth consecutive championship. It is a hard thing to suggest, but the second half of this season showed Red Bull was not keeping up with the likes of McLaren and Ferrari. Red Bull could find form and Verstappen could pull this one out to the surprise of no one. I don't think that will happen.

The championship favorite feels like Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc was not far off Norris. If Piastri starts the season hot, he could be McLaren's favorite. Carlos Sainz, Jr. will fall out of fifth moving to Williams. Mercedes did good but not great. Lewis Hamilton has moved to Ferrari. If Red Bull is good, Liam Lawson could shoot up there.

If there was a collective survey over what people think the 2025 championship top five will look like, I would believe it would look like Norris, Leclerc, Verstappen, Hamilton and Piastri. It feels realistic. 

2. Max Verstappen has fewer total podium finishes but he will have a stretch with three consecutive podium finishes

In 24 races, Verstappen had 14 podium finishes. Nine of those came in the first 12 races. In the final 12 races, his podium finishes rate was 41.667%. Expand that over a full 24-race season and he would have ten podium finishes. 

Ten feels low, but 11 podium finishes with about four victories feels like a very possible 2025 season for the Dutchman. He will have good days and be competitive, but I am not sure we are going to see him live on the podium like he has in recent seasons. 

Last season, Verstappen had only one stretch where he finished on the podium in at least three consecutive races. That was from Japan to Imola where he won three times and he was second at Miami. Despite this expected dip in form, I think Verstappen can have a three-race run where he is first, third and third or second, third and third or first, first and second. 

We saw Mercedes have its stretches last year. Lewis Hamilton had a run of first, third and first in 2024. Oscar Piastri was second, first and third over Monza, Baku and Singapore. The 2025 season might not sheer dominance, but we will see Verstappen have good runs even if he is not champion.

3. Lando Norris will have consecutive finishes outside the points

In 2024, Norris did not have consecutive finishes outside the points. He had one finish outside the points the entire season. That was the Austrian Grand Prix after contact with Verstappen punctured his tire. In 2023, Norris had two occasions where he did not finish in the points in consecutive races. It first happened in the first two races of the season and then it happened in the seventh and eighth races in Spain and Canada.

I expect a competitive championship battle, and though Norris was second this season and the clear #2 driver to Verstappen, I expect Norris to get into some tough battles and go over the edge at times. It will be a weekly grind to win the championship. There will be tight moments where he feel the pressure of not being able to sacrifice points, but it will put him over and either cause a mistake or he will push the car beyond its limits.

This could be the case across the board. It isn't just Norris that has this concern. The same can be true for Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. If all these drivers stumble, it opens the door for Verstappen to take control though potentially racing at a disadvantage. I don't think Norris will have a bad season, but he will experience bumps in the road.

4. Lewis Hamilton wins at least four pole positions

We ended the 2024 season with Hamilton questioning his qualifying ability and whether he still has it. He was also driving for a good but not great Mercedes organization that was not producing cars with consistently great one-lap pace. 

Ferrari has done well with one-lap pace, even if it has not translated to victories. Charles Leclerc won four pole positions last year. Carlos Sainz, Jr. won one. Leclerc has 26 pole positions. In three of six seasons at Ferrari, Leclerc has won at least five pole positions. He has never won more than three races in a season, but he has been able to win pole positions. 

If Hamilton still has it and Ferrari is on the right path, Hamilton will win a few pole positions. Four does not seem crazy especially if Leclerc can win four. 

5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli scores the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2013

The long-awaited arrival of Italy's next great Formula One star is here. At 18 years, six month and 19 years old, Antonelli will become the third-youngest starter in Formula One history at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix. He is doing it with a team that is a little bit in limbo. 

Mercedes is losing the driver that set its identity for the previous decade. It found good form at spurts in 2024, but it was not consistent, and the team frequently expressed frustration. The results were good, but I don't know if Antonelli is ready for this.

His debut season in Formula Two was good, but he looked young. He did not finish on the podium until he won the sprint race in Silverstone. He did win the feature race at the Hungaroring, but he had three podium finishes all season. For an 18-year-old, this was a good first year in Formula Two. It likely shouldn't have led to a Formula One season, especially with this Mercedes team. 

Mercedes will be doing some soul-searching in 2025. That might not be the right spot for an 18-year-old to step into. 

Last season was the first time Mercedes did not finish in the top three of the constructors' championship since 2012. In 2013, Lewis Hamilton was fourth in the championship on 189 points, his first year with Mercedes. Nico Rosberg was sixth on 171 points. Last season, George Russell led Mercedes with 245 points in sixth. Hamilton was seventh with 223 points. 

I do not envision Antonelli matching the 223 points Hamilton produced. I think 200 points could be ambitious, especially if Red Bull has two drivers scoring points and both McLarens and both Ferraris are clicking. In 2023, Russell scored only 175 points. If Antonelli can match that, it will be a good first season. 

6. Williams will have a top six finish on the road in a race that does not end prematurely

This might be asking a lot of Williams, which scored only 17 points last year, but it has two competent drivers in Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz, Jr. The introduction of Sainz, Jr. will not turn this team into a contender for race victories, but it adds some muscle. 

Williams has not had a top six finisher since George Russell was second in the 2021 Belgian Grand Prix, but as we all remember, that wasn't really a race. That was three laps behind the safety car in wet conditions and the race being called. The last time Williams has had a top six finisher in a race that went the distance was Lance Stroll finishing sixth in the 2017 Mexican Grand Prix.

With Albon and Sainz, Jr., combined with the promise we have seen from Williams at times over the last few seasons, I think it has one great day and can put a car in the top six. 

7. Haas scores its second most points in team history

With Ayao Komatsu as team principal, Haas scored 58 points and finished seventh in the constructors' championship. In the previous four seasons, Haas scored a combined 52 points. This was Haas' best finish in the constructors' championship since 2018. It ended the season with eight finishes in the points in the final nine races. This year was the second-most points Haas has scored in a season.

In 2025, it will have Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman as its lineup. Bearman has already scored points with the team. He was tenth at Baku. I think Haas will top 2024, but not quite come close to its 93-point output of 2018. Haas showed great pace at times in 2024. It brings in the experience of Ocon and combines the potential of Bearman. In 190 races of competition, Haas has yet to finish on the podium. That will still be a stretch, but the cars are capable to put them in a position to do something special on a crazy day.

8. Fernando Alonso says something that makes Lawrence Stroll respond and it is a headline

There is no statistical data or trend behind this prediction other than Aston Martin took a step back in 2024, it does not feel like Aston Martin is heading in the right direction for 2025, and there is a certain driver on that team who does not hold his tongue when he is upset.

Fernando Alonso does not mince his words when things are not going well, and after going from fourth in the championship on 206 points, Alonso dropped to ninth on 70 points in championship in 2024. Aston Martin remained fifth in the constructors' championship, but it went from 22 points off fourth to 374 points off fourth. We started hearing more displeasure from Alonso the later we got this past season. 

Alonso is going to say something. He is going to be frustrated at some point about being unable to run any better than seventh. He will be tired of being responsible for 85% of Aston Martin's success. He has run out of cards to play, but he also doesn't care anymore. He will lay into Aston Martin, say one thing too many and it will draw a response from Lawrence Stroll because Lawrence Stroll will not go quietly into the night. 

9. The team formerly known as Toro Rosso will feature three drivers

You would think the team formerly known as Toro Rosso would be set for its 2025 driver lineup after it had three drivers rotate through its two cars in 2024, especially after the team has promoted Isack Hadjar from Formula Two for his debut season. With Yuki Tsunoda remaining, you would think this would be a stable season for the team formerly known as Toro Rosso. 

Think again! 

It is Red Bull. They were barely sold on Liam Lawson taking over the second seat at the main team alongside Verstappen. Someone will get to a slow start, Helmut Marko will be upset about a driver's performance, and they will be looking to make a change for some reason. 

We aren't going to get Sergio Pérez or Daniel Ricciardo filling that third seat. But Franco Colapinto is out there and he was rumored of becoming a Red Bull driver when Colapinto was impressing with Williams. If Tsunoda is shaky, Red Bull will pull him. If Hadjar is off to a slow start, it is not tied to him. The same goes for Lawson. If Lawson starts slow and Tsunoda is looking good, Red Bull will rotate. We have seen it done before.

Musical chairs is never out of the question at the Red Bull party. 

10. Jack Doohan will have at least six finishes between eighth and tenth

Alpine had a better season than expected in 2024, thanks in part to a double podium day in Brazil, but Alpine was more competitive down the stretch and Pierre Gasly got results. It may have scored nearly half the points as it did in 2023, but it remained sixth in the constructors' championship despite the downturn. 

Doohan made his debut at Abu Dhabi after finishing third in the 2023 Formula Two championship. Alpine might be better but not necessarily great. There will be more races without points than races with, but Doohan will have some good days. They might be in Gasly's shadow, but he will pick up some points here and there. 

Gasly had six finishes between eighth and tenth in 2024. Esteban Ocon had four. Doohan can fill that role and match what Gasly did to an extent.

11. Both Sauber drivers will score at least ten points

There will be two new drivers for Sauber in 2025. One is familiar. Twelve years after he first drove for the Swiss organization, Nico Hülkenberg is back after two full seasons with Haas and only four starts over the previous three seasons before that. Joining Hülkenberg will be the 2024 Formula Two champion Gabriel Bortoleto. 

It has not been the greatest period for Sauber. It has finished better than eighth in the constructors' championship only once in the last decade. Five times in the last 11 seasons has Sauber failed to score double-digit points in a season. It has not had a podium finish since 2012. 

Why do we believe both drivers will score at least ten points in 2025? Hülkenberg scored 41 points last year and ended up 11th in the drivers' championship. Bortoleto is coming off a Formula Two season where he had eight podium finishes and both his victories came in feature races, and Bortoleto won the Formula Three championship the year before that. 

Ten is not a lot of points, but it can be a mountain for some teams, especially Sauber. Sauber has not had both drivers break ten points in a season since 2019. It might not be by much, but Hülkenberg and Bortoleto will each get to ten, even if it means Sauber will only have 20 points in 2025 and still finishes ninth in the constructors' championship.

12. Michael Schumacher will move up to fourth all-time in winning percentage after the 2025 season

You may be curious about this one because Michael Schumacher will not be competing in the 2025 season. How could Schumacher move up in the record book? Because winning percentage is a fluctuating statistic until a driver retires from competition. Schumacher might not be competing, but Max Verstappen still is.

Verstappen is one of four drivers in Formula One history with a winning percentage above 30%.

Juan Manuel Fangio - 47.06%

Alberto Ascari - 40.63%

Jim Clark - 34.72%

Max Verstappen - 30.14%

However, there will be 24 races in the 2025. Verstappen will need to win at least seven grand prix in 2025 to maintain a 30% winning percentage once the 2025 season is over. Verstappen won nine races in 2024 but won only twice in the final 13 races. He had a ten-race winless streak during this past season. 

Seven victories sounds like a minimum for Verstappen, especially since he has won at least nine races in the last four seasons. But with the questions about Red Bull's strength heading into 2025, there is a good chance Verstappen will not win seven races. 

If Verstappen only wins six races in 2025 and starts all 24 races, his winning percentage will drop to 29.613%. That would fall behind Michael Schumacher's winning percentage of 29.74%. 

But hold on! There is more! There is more than Verstappen to consider. 

As much as this is about Verstappen winning six races or fewer, we must also consider Lewis Hamilton, who ranks sixth all-time in winning percentage at 29.49%. Hamilton could surpass 29.74% winning percentage if he wins nine races in 2025. I don't think Hamilton will do that. 

Verstappen wins six races or fewer and Hamilton does not win more than nine races. Those two combining see Schumacher rise up to fourth in the record book without every turning a lap in the 2025 season. 

Two predictions are complete. Three remain. Comeback tomorrow for the next installment.

2024 Motorsports Christmas List

Christmas will be here in a few days! I hope all of your presents have been purchased and wrapped and you are not caught in the last second scramble to satisfy everyone's dreams. This should be a relaxing next few days before the holiday is here and we are all gathered around Christmas trees. 

Before spending that time with your family and digging into the stockings of your own, it is our annual tradition of giving out gifts to the people, places and events around the motorsports world. Even the most successful and riches drivers in the world need something this Christmas. This is our chance to give them what they need.

With that said, I hope you have your favorite drink and a few cookies next to you as your eyes wander across this list...

To IndyCar: An even geographical spread of races across the United States.

To Formula One: A championship battle that will be appreciated and not result in juvenile bickering online.

To NASCAR: The ability to share.

To the FIA World Endurance Championship: Two more rounds and better competition in Hypercar.

To IMSA: The GTP class competing at every round and two more races.

To MotoGP: Competitive Japanese manufacturers, and fewer cancelled rounds midseason.

To the European Le Mans Series: No broadcast partner in the United States so those races can be streamed on YouTube. Or at least a proper broadcast partner that more than six people have. 

To Formula E: A better broadcast partner in the United States. 

To Amazon: Minimal complaints over how it does broadcasting NASCAR races.

To James Hinchcliffe: Greater sway as a voice in motorsports. 

To Patricio O'Ward: A marketing department that makes the most of his charisma.

To Christian Lundgaard and Nolan Siegel: Results that force McLaren not to make any rash decisions.

To Colton Herta: Enough SuperLicense points to shut everyone up.

To Marcus Ericsson: Smooth oval races.

To Kyle Kirkwood: More fishing rods.

To Álex Palou: The other $500,000 that IndyCar owes him.

To Scott Dixon: Better qualifying form.

To Marcus Armstrong: A few podium finishes.

To Felix Rosenqvist: More races where he finishes better than his starting position than he finishes worse.

To Linus Lundvist: A loving home.

To Conor Daly: A legitimate sponsor that is not financially questionable.

To Josef Newgarden: Results to win back the fan base.

To Scott McLaughlin: Plenty of diapers and infant clothing.

To Will Power: An Indianapolis 500 pole position. 

To Max Verstappen: Enjoyment in what he does.

To Lewis Hamilton: Rejuvenation in red.

To Charles Leclerc: Sound pit strategy and leads to a championship push.

To Yuki Tsunoda: General respect around the paddock.

To Lando Norris: More opening laps led. 

To Oscar Piastri: No races where he is the fastest McLaren driver but the team gives him the less favorable pit strategy and forces positions to be re-addressed.

To George Russell: Cars at the proper weight every post-race.

To Andrea Kimi Antonelli: Confidence. He is going to need it.

To Valtteri Bottas: Permission to run the Indianapolis 500. Mercedes will be fine at Monaco.

To Sergio Pérez: Peace in whatever comes next.

To Fernando Alonso: The ability to hold his tongue.

To Kyle Larson: One sunny day and he gets to select when it happens.

To Alexander Rossi: A time machine back to January 1, 2018.

To Santino Ferrucci: Some aspirin.

To David Malukas: Dialing it back by about 30%.

To Callum Ilott: Carrying Prema to sensational results. 

To Robert Shwartzman: Nobody asking him how to pronounce his last name.

To Prema: No races outside of the Indianapolis 500 where more than 27 cars enter.

To Graham Rahal: A cushion from the last row shootout in Indianapolis 500 qualifying.

To Louis Foster: A guarantee of a second and third year in IndyCar.

To Christian Rasmussen: Less run ins during practice, qualifying and races.

To Romain Grojsean: A return to Dale Coyne Racing. 

To Toby Sowery: A full-time ride with Dale Coyne Racing.

To Dale Coyne: An investor who will gladly take that team off his hands. 

To Dreyer & Reinbold Racing: The resources to return to full-time IndyCar competition.

To Tom Blomqvist: A second chance at the Indianapolis 500 so he can get to say he completed a lap. 

To Colin Braun: A better IndyCar opportunity than one race with limited testing with Dale Coyne Racing.

To Hélio Castroneves: Entry in the Daytona 500. 

To Dane Cameron: An LMP2 championship to go with the three IMSA top class championships and the GTD title he already has. Oh, and an LMP2 class victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Big Christmas for Dane Cameron. 

To 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports: A good day in court.

To Kyle Busch: A year that gets him a better ride in 2026.

To Alex Bowman: Three race victories indenting up as the best Hendrick Motorsports driver in the championship.

To Chase Elliott: A shred of personality.

To Denny Hamlin: It being his year.

To Christopher Bell: Not being on the wrong side of race manipulation.

To A.J. Allmendinger: Some early success.

To Wayne Taylor Racing: Results matching its first stint as a Cadillac team.

To all three Cadillac teams in IMSA: 24 Hours of Le Mans entries.

To Felipe Nasr: A few IndyCar races with Team Penske.

To the Porsche Penske Motorsport drivers: No fear in losing their jobs if they win a championship.

To Robert Wickens: Still being quick in a GTD car. 

To Tommy Milner: Carrying over the results from GT World Challenge America back to IMSA's GTD Pro class.

To the Aston Martin Valkyrie: Competitiveness on speed and not because of Balance of Performance.

To Lamborghini: Good results with the SC63 in IMSA and maybe changing its mind on pulling out of WEC.

To Andy Lally: Not getting the itch to get back in a race car once he starts his new role.

To Kevin Magnussen: A few outstanding drives in the BMW M Hybrid V8.

To the Ferrari AF Corse program: A victory for both entry.

To Francesco Bagnaia: More points from sprint races.

To Marc Márquez: Staying on the bike in intense moments.

To KTM: A business lifeline.

To Jorge Martín: Aprilia having respectable pace.

To Pedro Acosta: Strides in his sophomore year.

To Enea Bastianini: Keeping up with Pedro Acosta.

To Franco Morbidelli: A little magic on a year-old Ducati.

To David Alonso: Perspective for when it gets tough.

To Joe Roberts: Avoiding getting injured for the entire season.

To Indy Lights: At least two more teams to spread those entries around.

To the Indianapolis 500: The Miami Grand Prix remaining in early May and the Canadian Grand Prix not running on Memorial Day weekend in perpetuity. 

To Indianapolis 500 qualifying: No format changes because there is a new television partner. 

To Race of Champions: Returning to a yearly competition and occurring at a time where the most possible competitors are available. 

To Rockingham Speedway: A great crowd for its NASCAR weekend.

To Iowa Speedway: Finishing the repave.

To Laguna Seca: Drawing crowds like it once did.

To Mid-Ohio: Facility upgrades that are now well over a decade overdue. Beyond the work that has already been done and actually looks good. 

To Bowman Gray Stadium: Good behavior.

To Mexico City: A respectable first NASCAR Cup race.

To the NASCAR in-season tournament: Five thrilling weekends that keep people engaged.

To the Chicago street race: Let's try this again... sunny weather.

To Bristol Motor Speedway: Understanding why the tires wore how they did in the spring 2024 Cup race.

To Richmond: A combination weekend with IndyCar and the NASCAR modified series. 

To Eli Tomac: A strong season to go out on. 

To Jett Lawrence: No thumb injuries.

To Hunter Lawrence: Making all the Supercross main events. 

To Jorge Prado: Comfort racing in a new championship.

To Chase Sexton: The best of his 2024 Motocross season being the norm going forward.

To Nico Hülkenberg: A improbable podium with Sauber

To Isack Hadjar: Space from Helmut Marko.

To Liam Lawson: Also, space from Helmut Marko.

To Carlos Sainz, Jr.: The best championship finish for a Williams driver in nearly a decade. 

To Alexander Albon: Significant contribution to Williams finishing in the top six of the constructors' championship.

To Esteban Ocon: General appreciation.

To Jack Doohan: Respectable results that does not lead him to be dumped after a season.

To Pierre Gasly: Pace carrying over from the end of 2024 to 2025.

To Franco Colapinto: A year succeeding in a bunch of fun one-off appearances around the world of motorsports. 

To Daniel Ricciardo: A year where he doesn't visits any racetracks and figures out what he loves in his life. 

To Shane van Gisbergen: An average finish around 18th on ovals.

To Joey Logano: Results that warrant a championship.

To William Byron: Jet ski.

To Chris Buescher: An extra 0.01 seconds in his favor that can be used when needed.

To Brad Keselowski: Roombas. 

To RFK Racing: A two-car program for NASCAR's second division.

To Carl Edwards: People stop asking him if he will ever return to NASCAR. 

To Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: People stop asking him if he will ever expanding JR Motorsports into the Cup Series.

To Martin Truex, Jr.: A Daytona 500 victory and that being a walk-off end to his career. 

To Ryan Truex: A full-time seat with Joe Gibbs Racing in NASCAR's second division. How many times does he have to win at Dover to get a full-time shot?

To Tyler Reddick: More consistent results in autumn. 

To Bubba Wallace: A complete day in a race on a 1.5-mile track. 

To Chase Briscoe: The #18. Let the #19 go with Truex, Jr. and have Joe Gibbs Racing return to its original identity. 

To Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric: Sharing a Ford Mustang GT3 in the 24 Hours of Daytona.

To Roger Penske: A clear plan for what his future looks like. 

To Chip Ganassi: Enough sponsors to properly hire three drivers to his IndyCar team.

To Mario Andretti: A few new hobbies that get him out of the house.

To Juan Pablo Montoya: Another Brickyard 400 start.

To the Daytona 500: A finish that does not involve review or a 24-car pile-up. 

To Homestead-Miami Speedway: A NASCAR playoff race because a race in March is attractive to no one.

To World Superbike: Again, more than one round outside of Europe. 

To Toprak Razgatlioglu: A round in Istanbul. 

To Nicolò Bulega: The ability to capitalize on an opportunity.

To Jonathan Rea: A few races where he is competing for victory.

To Super Formula: At least five international drivers to add flavor to the championship. This would actually be a fun place for Franco Colapinto. Frederik Vesti needs more than just a few endurance races as well.

To the Intercontinental GT World Challenge: More than a week between the Nürburgring 24 Hours and the 24 Hours of Spa.

To Supercars: Satisfaction in whatever happens with its new championship format because it has fallen down the rabbit hole and good luck with whatever comes next.

To Mazda MX-5 Cup: A round at Road America. It is criminal it is not racing there... or Sebring... or Watkins Glen... or Laguna Seca. MX-5 Cup might need to be a 12-round championship.

To Jak Crawford: A development contract with the Cadillac Formula One program.

 

To Leonardo Fornaroli: At least one race victory.

To Sebastián Montoya: His best year in a car to date. 

To World Rally Championship: A French manufacturer. Maybe Peugeot pulls out of Hypercar and returns to rallying. 

To Pipo Derani: A fair number of opportunities mixed with his role developing the Genesis LMDh project.

To Jimmie Johnson: Understanding that it is time. 

To Legacy Motor Club: Being in the conversation with the other Toyota teams in the Cup Series. 

To Chandler Smith: A time machine to 2003 when someone would have hired him for his talent. 

To Corey Heim: A time machine to 2003 when someone would have hired him for his talent and would not be stuck in the Truck Series. 

To Ty Majeski, and really all the successful drivers in the Truck Series: A way to move up to NASCAR's second division and have a proper opportunity competing there as well.

To Nazareth Speedway: A time machine to 2003 and someone bringing the pristine facility to 2025 when NASCAR is looking for different racetracks and not living and dying with cookie-cutter intermediate tracks with capacity over 125,000 people. 

To Pikes Peak International Raceway: The same thing as Nazareth Speedway. 

To Layne Riggs: Having his second half of 2024 be his entire 2025.

To Connor Zilisch: A NASCAR Cup Series debut on a road course. 

To Josh Berry: A positive season with the Wood Brothers.

To Justin Allgaier: No championship hangover.

To Sheldon Creed: Just one race victory and it is a race he dominates.

To Jeb and Harrison Burton: No run-ins on track that could cause tense moments in the family. 

To Parker Kligerman: A full-time ride in Michelin Pilot Challenge's GS class with an Michelin Endurance Cup ride in GTD.

To Sho Tsuboi: A leading role in a third Toyota entry at the 24 Hours of Le Mans and the Fuji WEC round. 

To Jack Hawksworth: One of the seats alongside Tsuboi in those entries. 

To António Félix da Costa: Again, more than Formula E. 

To Jaguar: No championship collapse.

To Mitch Evans and Nick Cassidy: A home race in New Zealand in January 2026. 

To Sébastien Buemi: Waffle maker.

To Mike Conway: A stationary bike and taking up swimming for exercise. More drivers should swim over cycling from how it looks.  

To all the competitors in the FIA World Endurance Championship: No race being extended beyond its run time due to weather. 

To Sam Bird: Indestructible hands. 

To GT America: Officially becoming a series for drivers 50 years and older and add about a dozen more notable names. Scott Pruett! Come on down!

To Théo Pourchaire: A loving team that will get the most out of his talent. 

To Jack Harvey: Cookie sheets.

To IndyCar fans: Understanding why there are no night races.

Also to IndyCar fans: Acceptance of commercials during practice broadcasts.

To Thermal Club: A competitive and uncontroversial IndyCar race.

To Newton, Iowa: High temperatures that do not exceed 84º F on the weekend of July 12-13

To Milwaukee Mile: Tire wear remaining at the same level for IndyCar.

To the Grand Prix of Long Beach: Stability under new ownership.

To Barber Motorsports Park: More visitors because it is the best looking racetrack in the country with a phenomenal museum on the property.

To the IndyCar Toronto race: A modern track configuration around Exhibition Place with a proper pit lane.

To Jacob Abel: One more in Indy Lights but with the results in no way negatively effecting his status as a potential IndyCar driver.

To: Yuven Sundaramoorthy: Having Chip Ganassi Racing realize it has hired the drivers that finished 13th and 20th after only running nine races in Indy Lights in 2024 with a combined zero top five finishes and Sundaramoorthy deserves to be racing after how his season ended.

To Kiko Porto: A full-time ride in Indy Lights.

To Dennis Hauger: Making it clear he was a Formula Three champion and making it hard for any IndyCar team to overlook him for the 2026 season. 

To Myles Rowe: No mechanical issues or opening lap problems.

To Jamie Chadwick: Improving on tire wear over a course of a stint. 

To Juncos Hollinger Racing: Better public relations and crisis management. 

To Zandvoort: Something to fill the void once Formula One is gone in 2026.

To the Belgian Grand Prix: Returning to late-August once the Dutch Grand Prix is gone so the 24 Hours of Spa can return to late-July.

To the Las Vegas Grand Prix: Honestly, a better start time. Something that makes sense for the United States.

To the British Grand Prix: An all-British podium.

To the many young drivers that cannot break into Formula One: A return for A1GP, a series that would give talented drivers rides in proper race cars and could be a springboard for careers while also being a different concept that can fill the winter months.

And, of course, I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. If you are somewhere cold, I hope you stay warm. If you are somewhere warm, I hope you enjoy the weather. No matter the conditions, cherish this time with the loved ones around you. Stay safe and healthy!

Peace and love to all!

2025 NASCAR Predictions

We are into the final fortnight of 2024, and as we do in the final days of a year, we begin to look ahead to next year. As is custom, our predictions series begins with NASCAR, which may not be the most recent series to conclude, but it will be one of the first series back in 2025.

1. Team Penske will not have a driver make the final four in the Cup Series

How does a team follow up three consecutive Cup Series championship? By not even having a challenger for the title in the final race. That is right. Team Penske will be shut out of the championship four in 2025. 

For starters, Penske has been rather fortunate in the last two years to win the championship. In each of the last two seasons, the Penske champion has reset the record for fewest top five finishes for a champion in NASCAR's modern era. Joey Logano only scored the 12th most points this year. Too many things went right for Logano to claim the trophy at Phoenix. At some point, it will not work out. 

That will be in 2025. Not only was Penske's overall results a cause for concern, but the NASCAR Cup Series is deep. Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were all on the outside of the championship four in 2024. That could be the final four in 2025. Perhaps Logano and Ryan Blaney fall out while Larson and a surprise Chase Briscoe makes a statement in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. Maybe Kyle Busch experiences a career revival and makes a run to the finale where he faces off with Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher for the cup. 

Penske is good, but at some point good will not be enough to have a title shot into the finale.

2. There will be at least two occasions where a driver wins consecutive races

In 2024, no driver in the NASCAR Cup Series won consecutive races. The Cup Series enters 2025 without seeing a driver with consecutive races in 46 consecutive races. The most recent driver with consecutive victories was Chris Buescher at Richmond and Michigan in 2023. 

How does NASCAR correct this? We will see a driver win consecutive races at least twice in 2025.

Where does the schedule set up for a driver to win consecutive races?

Are you going to rule out Kyle Larson winning at Las Vegas and Homestead in March? Or Homestead and Martinsville? Larson could very well win three consecutive races, and Darlington and Bristol follow that. He could win five straight! 

Why couldn't Denny Hamlin win the Coca-Cola 600 and then win at Nashville to make up for one that got away last season. 

Joey Logano has had success at Michigan, and Logano frequently wins debut races. He could follow a Michigan victory with victory in the inaugural NASCAR Cup race from Mexico City. 

Chicago and Sonoma are consecutive weekends. There are about nine drivers in the Cup Series that would not surprise you if they won consecutive road course races.

It will be at least twice, maybe even three times in 2025.

3. At least three non-playoff drivers in 2024 will have clinched a playoff spot within the first 13 races of 2025

It does feel like we see surprise winners early in a season. Take 2024 for example. Daniel Suárez and Brad Keselowski did not win a race in 2023 and both missed the playoffs. Both won within the first 13 races of 2024 and locked up a playoff spot. 

In 2023, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the Daytona 500, and Martin Truex, Jr., who had not won in 2022, won the 11th race at Dover. The 2022 season had Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain all picking up their first career victories within the first six races. 

Droughts end early and often in the NASCAR Cup Series, and I think 2025 will be the same. 

Notable non-playoff drivers from last year include Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Chastain and Kyle Busch. Throw in Shane van Gisbergen and A.J. Allmendinger, who both move up to the Cup Series full-time while combining the fact Circuit of the Americas in the third race of the season, and we could see some unfamiliar winners early in 2025. I think we see at least three.

4. Josh Berry will be the best sophomore driver in the championship

Carson Hocevar comfortably won the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year. With 686 points in 21st, Hocevar was six spots and 107 points ahead of the next best rookie. That was Josh Berry. 

Hocevar remains with Spire Motorsports, which will see Michael McDowell and Justin Haley join that operation. Meanwhile, Berry moves from the closing Stewart-Haas Racing to Wood Brothers Racing.

Berry should be an upgrade over Harrison Burton. Berry might not win two or three races and pick up 15 top ten finishes, but he should be more competitive. Hocevar had a good end to the season. He had five top ten finishes and was third at Watkins Glen. Berry had four top ten finishes, which included a pair of third place results, but those all came within a six-race period.

The team change will raise Berry, and I don't know if Hocevar will even be the top Spire driver with new competition in-house. 

5. Kyle Larson will have at least one stretch with five consecutive top ten finishes

You may think you remember Larson's 2024 season very well. He led the Cup Series with six victories and missed out on the championship four, but was in the picture for making it to the finale for entire Martinsville race before Ryan Blaney pulled away. But you may forgetting some parts of Larson's season. 

In a 36-race season, Larson had only 18 top ten finishes, exactly half the races. Not bad, but not great either. Even less impressive when you noticed he had six finishes outside the top 30. He had ten finishes outside the top twenty in 2024. 

You may think for the greatest driver in the world, five consecutive top ten finishes is nothing, but it would be quite the achievement for Larson. In 2024, Larson never finished in the top ten in three consecutive races. On seven occasions he had back-to-back top ten results, but he never made it to three consecutive races. Larson hasn't had at least five consecutive top ten finishes since an eight-race top ten streak in 2021 from Darlington in May through Pocono in June. 

Larson will find some form and consistency in 2025.

6. Shane van Gisbergen will end the season with at least ten playoff points

Expectations might be set too high for van Gisbergen in his first full Cup Series season. He might have won on debut and three times as a rookie in NASCAR's second division, but the Cup Series is tough. Drivers do not waltz in and win a bunch of races.

Ten playoff points suggests van Gisbergen will win two races. With six road/street course races, it sets up nice for him. Two victories is not crazy, but he could fall short. He could win none. Consider Austin Cindric's road course success in the second level only to still be winless on road course in the Cup Series after three full seasons. I bet no one saw that coming at the start of 2022. 

This prediction also takes into consideration stage victories. Van Gisbergen might win a race with no stage victories and then win five elsewhere, whether that be at other road courses or because he did not stop before a stage caution. 

I don't think van Gisbergen is going to go six-for-six on the road and street courses. Two victories feels reasonable.

7. The finalists in NASCAR's in-season tournament will both be ranked in the top ten in points entering Indianapolis

The 2025 season will see NASCAR's first year of an in-season tournament. Over five races, the top 32 drivers will be a part of a single-elimination bracket that will determine a tournament champion based on head-to-head matchups. 

The first race will be at Atlanta in June before going to Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and finishing with the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. 

This is ripe for an odd final. Head-to-head can produce fluky results. Toss in the first three rounds being a drafting track, a street course and a road course, and we could see a crazy quadrant of semifinalists before we even get to the final. 

However, I believe the best in NASCAR will come out on top. There will be a few upsets early, but enough good drivers will survive and make the final reflect the actual talent in the series.

8. Front Row Motorsports will win no more than two pole positions

How many pole positions did Front Row Motorsports win last year? 

Six.

All with Michael McDowell.

All at the drafting tracks (Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta).

McDowell is gone, and no team is going to get that lucky again. As good as Todd Gilliland and Noah Gragson might be, six pole positions are a lot. There is no guarantee Front Row Motorsports will still have that advantage on these flat-out circuits. 

I will leave the door open that FRM will still be good and respectable, but they will not be as dominant as it was in qualifying last year.

9. At least one driver in NASCAR's second division will have at least five victories

In 2024, no driver in NASCAR's second division won five races. Austin Hill led the way with four victories. It was the first time a driver did not win at least five races in a season since 2003. 

That means somebody is going to win at least five races in 2025. There is a good collection of drivers competing in this series. Justin Allgaier is coming off his first career championship. Austin Hill is still around. Jesse Love had a good but not great rookie year. Haas Factory Team will run two cars for Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer. Carson Kvapil, Connor Zilisch and Christian Eckes will all be rookies.

The field is good, but someone is winning five races, and that might be enough to claim the title.

10. Sheldon Creed will have more victories than runner-up finishes

Creed has gotten a bad rap for his inability to win. What is more stunning is Creed's ability to finish in second. 

In 102 starts in NASCAR's second division, Creed has 13 runner-up finishes. On three occasions has Creed finished runner-up in consecutive races. He had six runner-up results in 2024 alone. If he had finished one spot better in all of those races... well, if he had won seven times in his first two seasons Creed would have wound up full-time in Cup in 2024, but 13 wins in 102 races would be a 12.7% winning percentage and 12th all-time. Of course, Creed isn't there, but it hasn't been for a lack of trying. 

Remember, this prediction is not "Creed will win six races." It is Creed will finish first more than he finishes second. He could win once and have zero second-place finishes in 2025. He could win twice and finish second once. This is as much about Creed not finishing second as it is him winning. Six runner-up finishes will be tough to match. That number will come down. It will come down because some races he will finish first.

11. Corey Heim wins at least nine races in NASCAR national series competition

Speaking of winning percentage, Heim has won 17.1875% of his start in the NASCAR Truck Series. That is pretty good. Is it nine victories good? No. That success rate would only translate to 4.29 victories in the 2025 Truck season, but the truck field has gotten weaker.

Christian Eckes is gone. Nick Sanchez is gone. Taylor Gary is gone. Daniel Dye is gone. That is 40% of the playoff drivers from 2024, and two of those guys didn't even win a race. Eckes won four times. Sanchez won twice. Someone will have to win those races.

In the last three seasons, Heim has won two, four and six races respectively. He will have plenty of challengers. Champion Ty Majeski is still around. Grant Enfinger will figure into a race or two. Layne Riggs was coming on strong late in 2024. Rajah Caruth is back for a second season. Daniel Hemric could be competitive. 

Nine victories is a lot. Nobody has won nine races in a Truck season since Greg Biffle in 1999, but the Truck Series will also have 25 races in 2025, two more than last year. Plus, Heim could run some races in NASCAR's second series, and he looked strong at that level last year driving for Sam Hunt Racing. If anyone at Toyota had a brain, Heim would be in a Gibbs car on a part-time basis.

Heim might win nine Truck races on his own, but he could also win seven Truck races and two in the second division. Be prepared for Heim victories. 

12. One driver wins a race in all three national touring series

This one seems simple, and it is. Why this prediction? Because no driver won in all three series in 2024.

Four drivers won in two. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott all won in the top two series. Ross Chastain won in Cup and Trucks. 

In 2023, Larson won in all three series. It didn't happen in 2022 either. Kyle Busch did it in 2021. Busch actually did it in nine consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2021, and he also did it in from 2005 to 2011. Kevin Harvick did it in 2012. Denny Hamlin also did it in 2011. 

It has happened at least once in 18 of the last 20 seasons. I don't know who will do it in 2025. The landscape has changed where we do not see many Cup drivers running in either of the other two national touring series with great regularity, but it will happen in 2025. 

It could be Kyle Larson, possibly it is Kyle Busch returning to his old form of dominating the lower series. Maybe it is someone completely out of nowhere (Connor Zilisch!). It will happen.

Speaking of will happen, more predictions will come next week as we wind down 2024 and gaze ahead to 2025.