Happy Boxing Day! Christmas is over and we have a few more days before the year comes to a close. This brings us to our Boxing Day tradition, Formula One predictions! The 2024 season had the final result we expected, but boy did the 2024 season not go as we thought. It has led to big dreams for what 2025 will look like. Change is now expected, and these predictions reflect that mindset.
1. None of the top five championship finishers in 2024 finish in the same position in 2025
After how the 2024 season ended and all the movement during the silly season, we are going to see some changes in 2025. This is saying Max Verstappen will not win a fifth consecutive championship. It is a hard thing to suggest, but the second half of this season showed Red Bull was not keeping up with the likes of McLaren and Ferrari. Red Bull could find form and Verstappen could pull this one out to the surprise of no one. I don't think that will happen.
The championship favorite feels like Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc was not far off Norris. If Piastri starts the season hot, he could be McLaren's favorite. Carlos Sainz, Jr. will fall out of fifth moving to Williams. Mercedes did good but not great. Lewis Hamilton has moved to Ferrari. If Red Bull is good, Liam Lawson could shoot up there.
If there was a collective survey over what people think the 2025 championship top five will look like, I would believe it would look like Norris, Leclerc, Verstappen, Hamilton and Piastri. It feels realistic.
2. Max Verstappen has fewer total podium finishes but he will have a stretch with three consecutive podium finishes
In 24 races, Verstappen had 14 podium finishes. Nine of those came in the first 12 races. In the final 12 races, his podium finishes rate was 41.667%. Expand that over a full 24-race season and he would have ten podium finishes.
Ten feels low, but 11 podium finishes with about four victories feels like a very possible 2025 season for the Dutchman. He will have good days and be competitive, but I am not sure we are going to see him live on the podium like he has in recent seasons.
Last season, Verstappen had only one stretch where he finished on the podium in at least three consecutive races. That was from Japan to Imola where he won three times and he was second at Miami. Despite this expected dip in form, I think Verstappen can have a three-race run where he is first, third and third or second, third and third or first, first and second.
We saw Mercedes have its stretches last year. Lewis Hamilton had a run of first, third and first in 2024. Oscar Piastri was second, first and third over Monza, Baku and Singapore. The 2025 season might not sheer dominance, but we will see Verstappen have good runs even if he is not champion.
3. Lando Norris will have consecutive finishes outside the points
In 2024, Norris did not have consecutive finishes outside the points. He had one finish outside the points the entire season. That was the Austrian Grand Prix after contact with Verstappen punctured his tire. In 2023, Norris had two occasions where he did not finish in the points in consecutive races. It first happened in the first two races of the season and then it happened in the seventh and eighth races in Spain and Canada.
I expect a competitive championship battle, and though Norris was second this season and the clear #2 driver to Verstappen, I expect Norris to get into some tough battles and go over the edge at times. It will be a weekly grind to win the championship. There will be tight moments where he feel the pressure of not being able to sacrifice points, but it will put him over and either cause a mistake or he will push the car beyond its limits.
This could be the case across the board. It isn't just Norris that has this concern. The same can be true for Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. If all these drivers stumble, it opens the door for Verstappen to take control though potentially racing at a disadvantage. I don't think Norris will have a bad season, but he will experience bumps in the road.
4. Lewis Hamilton wins at least four pole positions
We ended the 2024 season with Hamilton questioning his qualifying ability and whether he still has it. He was also driving for a good but not great Mercedes organization that was not producing cars with consistently great one-lap pace.
Ferrari has done well with one-lap pace, even if it has not translated to victories. Charles Leclerc won four pole positions last year. Carlos Sainz, Jr. won one. Leclerc has 26 pole positions. In three of six seasons at Ferrari, Leclerc has won at least five pole positions. He has never won more than three races in a season, but he has been able to win pole positions.
If Hamilton still has it and Ferrari is on the right path, Hamilton will win a few pole positions. Four does not seem crazy especially if Leclerc can win four.
5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli scores the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2013
The long-awaited arrival of Italy's next great Formula One star is here. At 18 years, six month and 19 years old, Antonelli will become the third-youngest starter in Formula One history at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix. He is doing it with a team that is a little bit in limbo.
Mercedes is losing the driver that set its identity for the previous decade. It found good form at spurts in 2024, but it was not consistent, and the team frequently expressed frustration. The results were good, but I don't know if Antonelli is ready for this.
His debut season in Formula Two was good, but he looked young. He did not finish on the podium until he won the sprint race in Silverstone. He did win the feature race at the Hungaroring, but he had three podium finishes all season. For an 18-year-old, this was a good first year in Formula Two. It likely shouldn't have led to a Formula One season, especially with this Mercedes team.
Mercedes will be doing some soul-searching in 2025. That might not be the right spot for an 18-year-old to step into.
Last season was the first time Mercedes did not finish in the top three of the constructors' championship since 2012. In 2013, Lewis Hamilton was fourth in the championship on 189 points, his first year with Mercedes. Nico Rosberg was sixth on 171 points. Last season, George Russell led Mercedes with 245 points in sixth. Hamilton was seventh with 223 points.
I do not envision Antonelli matching the 223 points Hamilton produced. I think 200 points could be ambitious, especially if Red Bull has two drivers scoring points and both McLarens and both Ferraris are clicking. In 2023, Russell scored only 175 points. If Antonelli can match that, it will be a good first season.
6. Williams will have a top six finish on the road in a race that does not end prematurely
This might be asking a lot of Williams, which scored only 17 points last year, but it has two competent drivers in Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz, Jr. The introduction of Sainz, Jr. will not turn this team into a contender for race victories, but it adds some muscle.
Williams has not had a top six finisher since George Russell was second in the 2021 Belgian Grand Prix, but as we all remember, that wasn't really a race. That was three laps behind the safety car in wet conditions and the race being called. The last time Williams has had a top six finisher in a race that went the distance was Lance Stroll finishing sixth in the 2017 Mexican Grand Prix.
With Albon and Sainz, Jr., combined with the promise we have seen from Williams at times over the last few seasons, I think it has one great day and can put a car in the top six.
7. Haas scores its second most points in team history
With Ayao Komatsu as team principal, Haas scored 58 points and finished seventh in the constructors' championship. In the previous four seasons, Haas scored a combined 52 points. This was Haas' best finish in the constructors' championship since 2018. It ended the season with eight finishes in the points in the final nine races. This year was the second-most points Haas has scored in a season.
In 2025, it will have Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman as its lineup. Bearman has already scored points with the team. He was tenth at Baku. I think Haas will top 2024, but not quite come close to its 93-point output of 2018. Haas showed great pace at times in 2024. It brings in the experience of Ocon and combines the potential of Bearman. In 190 races of competition, Haas has yet to finish on the podium. That will still be a stretch, but the cars are capable to put them in a position to do something special on a crazy day.
8. Fernando Alonso says something that makes Lawrence Stroll respond and it is a headline
There is no statistical data or trend behind this prediction other than Aston Martin took a step back in 2024, it does not feel like Aston Martin is heading in the right direction for 2025, and there is a certain driver on that team who does not hold his tongue when he is upset.
Fernando Alonso does not mince his words when things are not going well, and after going from fourth in the championship on 206 points, Alonso dropped to ninth on 70 points in championship in 2024. Aston Martin remained fifth in the constructors' championship, but it went from 22 points off fourth to 374 points off fourth. We started hearing more displeasure from Alonso the later we got this past season.
Alonso is going to say something. He is going to be frustrated at some point about being unable to run any better than seventh. He will be tired of being responsible for 85% of Aston Martin's success. He has run out of cards to play, but he also doesn't care anymore. He will lay into Aston Martin, say one thing too many and it will draw a response from Lawrence Stroll because Lawrence Stroll will not go quietly into the night.
9. The team formerly known as Toro Rosso will feature three drivers
You would think the team formerly known as Toro Rosso would be set for its 2025 driver lineup after it had three drivers rotate through its two cars in 2024, especially after the team has promoted Isack Hadjar from Formula Two for his debut season. With Yuki Tsunoda remaining, you would think this would be a stable season for the team formerly known as Toro Rosso.
Think again!
It is Red Bull. They were barely sold on Liam Lawson taking over the second seat at the main team alongside Verstappen. Someone will get to a slow start, Helmut Marko will be upset about a driver's performance, and they will be looking to make a change for some reason.
We aren't going to get Sergio Pérez or Daniel Ricciardo filling that third seat. But Franco Colapinto is out there and he was rumored of becoming a Red Bull driver when Colapinto was impressing with Williams. If Tsunoda is shaky, Red Bull will pull him. If Hadjar is off to a slow start, it is not tied to him. The same goes for Lawson. If Lawson starts slow and Tsunoda is looking good, Red Bull will rotate. We have seen it done before.
Musical chairs is never out of the question at the Red Bull party.
10. Jack Doohan will have at least six finishes between eighth and tenth
Alpine had a better season than expected in 2024, thanks in part to a double podium day in Brazil, but Alpine was more competitive down the stretch and Pierre Gasly got results. It may have scored nearly half the points as it did in 2023, but it remained sixth in the constructors' championship despite the downturn.
Doohan made his debut at Abu Dhabi after finishing third in the 2023 Formula Two championship. Alpine might be better but not necessarily great. There will be more races without points than races with, but Doohan will have some good days. They might be in Gasly's shadow, but he will pick up some points here and there.
Gasly had six finishes between eighth and tenth in 2024. Esteban Ocon had four. Doohan can fill that role and match what Gasly did to an extent.
11. Both Sauber drivers will score at least ten points
There will be two new drivers for Sauber in 2025. One is familiar. Twelve years after he first drove for the Swiss organization, Nico Hülkenberg is back after two full seasons with Haas and only four starts over the previous three seasons before that. Joining Hülkenberg will be the 2024 Formula Two champion Gabriel Bortoleto.
It has not been the greatest period for Sauber. It has finished better than eighth in the constructors' championship only once in the last decade. Five times in the last 11 seasons has Sauber failed to score double-digit points in a season. It has not had a podium finish since 2012.
Why do we believe both drivers will score at least ten points in 2025? Hülkenberg scored 41 points last year and ended up 11th in the drivers' championship. Bortoleto is coming off a Formula Two season where he had eight podium finishes and both his victories came in feature races, and Bortoleto won the Formula Three championship the year before that.
Ten is not a lot of points, but it can be a mountain for some teams, especially Sauber. Sauber has not had both drivers break ten points in a season since 2019. It might not be by much, but Hülkenberg and Bortoleto will each get to ten, even if it means Sauber will only have 20 points in 2025 and still finishes ninth in the constructors' championship.
12. Michael Schumacher will move up to fourth all-time in winning percentage after the 2025 season
You may be curious about this one because Michael Schumacher will not be competing in the 2025 season. How could Schumacher move up in the record book? Because winning percentage is a fluctuating statistic until a driver retires from competition. Schumacher might not be competing, but Max Verstappen still is.
Verstappen is one of four drivers in Formula One history with a winning percentage above 30%.
Juan Manuel Fangio - 47.06%
Alberto Ascari - 40.63%
Jim Clark - 34.72%
Max Verstappen - 30.14%
However, there will be 24 races in the 2025. Verstappen will need to win at least seven grand prix in 2025 to maintain a 30% winning percentage once the 2025 season is over. Verstappen won nine races in 2024 but won only twice in the final 13 races. He had a ten-race winless streak during this past season.
Seven victories sounds like a minimum for Verstappen, especially since he has won at least nine races in the last four seasons. But with the questions about Red Bull's strength heading into 2025, there is a good chance Verstappen will not win seven races.
If Verstappen only wins six races in 2025 and starts all 24 races, his winning percentage will drop to 29.613%. That would fall behind Michael Schumacher's winning percentage of 29.74%.
But hold on! There is more! There is more than Verstappen to consider.
As much as this is about Verstappen winning six races or fewer, we must also consider Lewis Hamilton, who ranks sixth all-time in winning percentage at 29.49%. Hamilton could surpass 29.74% winning percentage if he wins nine races in 2025. I don't think Hamilton will do that.
Verstappen wins six races or fewer and Hamilton does not win more than nine races. Those two combining see Schumacher rise up to fourth in the record book without every turning a lap in the 2025 season.
Two predictions are complete. Three remain. Comeback tomorrow for the next installment.
