We are into the final fortnight of the year, and while there is not much motorsports going on, this is a time to be excited for what is to come. There are plenty of changes ahead of us, and drivers looking for redemption while others hope to expand on their legacies. We don't know what will happen but anything is possible. We can let our minds carry us away.
We begin with NASCAR, which has had a lively offseason even though no race has taken place for over six weeks now. Changes are coming to NASCAR at least on the business side and with the race teams, but there could be more changes in terms of championship format. Nothing is settled, but it has been leaning that way for quite some time.
Enough about the boardroom dealings, we are here to make predictions for the next season regardless of how the championship trophy is decided. Twelve predictions await you.
1. Kyle Larson's average finish in each third of the season will be 15.5 or better
Kyle Larson is not running the Indianapolis 500 this season, but last year, that marked a significant shift in his performance in the NASCAR Cup Series.
In his 12 Cup starts prior to him starting the Indianapolis 500, Larson had an average finish of 9.333. His average finish in the final 24 races was 14.875. That isn't a terrible average, but it was saved with four top five finishes in the final six races. Take the first 19 races after his Indianapolis 500 start, and Larson's average was 16.789.
His average in the second-third of the 2025 Cup season was 19.25! His average in the final third was 10.5.
That is a wild swing to be basically averaging a ninth-place finish for 12 races then average worse than 19th for 12 races before ending with an average of just worse than tenth for 12 races.
Larson is a swing-and-miss driver. For all his success, he does have a fair number of bad results. In 2024, he did finish outside the top ten in 17 races with five finishes worse than 30th. In 2023, he had six finishes outside the top fifteen in the first 11 race, and he had nine finishes outside the top 25. In 2022, he opened the season with four finishes of 29th or worse in the first six races and he had seven finishes outside the top 30.
He wins a fair amount, but he strikes outs a ton as well. However, I think we will see a more balanced Larson in 2026. In each third of the season, his average finish will be 15.5 or better. I don't think his results will wildly jump around. There might be a two or three position dip, but it is still respectable results.
2. A Team Penske driver will not have a race victory following a finish outside the top twenty
Lately, it feels like Penske goes from zero-to-hero in the NASCAR Cup Series. The results are not that good and then suddenly it is on a run of top ten finishes. Last season, each Penske driver won a race after finishing outside the top fifteen the race before.
Austin Cindric won at Talladega after being 17th at Bristol. Joey Logano won at Texas after being disqualified at Talladega and being classified in 39th. Ryan Blaney won at Nashville after being 38th at Charlotte. Blaney also won at Loudon after being fourth at Bristol, and he won the Phoenix finale after being second at Martinsville.
I don't think we are going to see as big of swings from the Penske groups. It should be noted that Logano was fourth at Phoenix and Cindric was 27th at the Phoenix finale. Keep that in mind for Daytona.
3. Chase Briscoe will have the third-most top five finishes at Joe Gibbs Racing
Briscoe's first season with Joe Gibbs Racing exceeded expectations as he was a championship contender in the final race, and he ended up finishing third in the championship. Briscoe won three times at Pocono, the Southern 500 and Talladega. He also led the team with 15 top five finishes. It was actually tight in this category at Gibbs. Denny Hamlin had 14 top five finishes and Christopher Bell had 13. Ty Gibbs had five, and I must admit I nearly forgot Ty Gibbs was a Cup driver.
In year two at Gibbs, I think Briscoe takes a slight step back, and we see Hamlin and Bell perform a little better, or at least a little better than Briscoe.
4. Chase Elliott will have at least five finishes outside the top twenty in the first 24 races
There was great praise for Elliott's consistency in 2025. He did not have a finish outside the top twenty in the first 23 races. Guess what happens in 2026? He is going to have at least five finishes worse than 20th in the first two-thirds of the season.
Elliott ended up having four finishes outside the top twenty in the final 12 races. That a brief market correction, but 2026 will be more aligned with the rest of the competition. Larson had six finishes outside the top thirty in the first 24 races last year, and he had a 28th-place finish as well. Hamlin had three finishes outside the top twenty in the first five race, and nine in the first 24. Briscoe had seven finishes outside the top twenty in the first 24 races, and Byron had eight.
Those were your four championship contenders at Phoenix, and those results were dreadful in comparison to Elliott, but let's keep going. Bell had five finishes outside the top twenty in the first two-dozen races last year. Ryan Blaney had seven, and three of those were consecutive between races four and six of the season. Logano had four finishes outside the top twenty before he had his first top ten finish, and he had eight in the first 24 races.
That is every driver ranked ahead of Elliott in the championship in 2025 plus Tyler Reddick had five finishes worse than 20th, Ross Chastian had seven, Bubba Wallace had 11, Shane van Gisbergen had 14, Alex Bowman had eighth, Austin Cindric had nine, Austin Dillon had 11 and Josh Berry had 14.
Every other playoff driver in 2025 had at least five finishes worse than 20th in the first two-thirds of the season. Elliott isn't special. He will come back down to earth.
5. Denny Hamlin will have five fastest laps or fewer
Last season was the first time NASCAR awarded a point for the fastest lap in the race. Hamlin had the most fastest laps in the season with nine, which meant nothing once he was in the finale and the standings were reset. The next closest driver had five.
We haven't really tracked fastest lap information because it never mattered in the first 76 seasons of NASCAR. I don't know what the trends are, but I will wager that Hamlin's fastest lap total drops by nearly half. I don't know what the average is, but if Hamlin had nine and was nearly double the rest of the field, I have a feeling he is more likely going to return to the pack than remain that far ahead.
6. Tyler Reddick will be one of the first six drivers to win a Cup race this season
After going winless in 2025, Reddick gets a victory earlier than most in the Cup Series. He had a few close calls in 2025. Reddick was in the top three in two of the first three races. He hit an extended slump that basically went through the entire spring. I think we see a bounce back.
Consider that anyone can win either of the first two races at Daytona and Atlanta, Reddick is a past winner at Austin, and he has great results at Darlington, those are four of the first six races. He could pick up a win at any of those circuits. He should be competitive at Bristol and Kansas. Watkins Glen is going to be in May. That is majority of the first 12 races where Reddick should have a good shout at victory.
With how last season went, I think Reddick will be focused to get off the snide early.
7. Trackhouse will win fewer road course races by ten seconds or greater
In 2025, Trackhouse won five road course races, and three of those had a margin of victory greater than ten seconds. All of those were with Shane van Gisbergen, but van Gisbergen will have new competition, and it will be coming from within the organization.
Connor Zilisch has moved up to the Cup Series, and he has already shown good pace in his handful of Cup appearances. In NASCAR's second division, Zilisch held his own against van Gisbergen and defeated him a few times. I don't think it is going to swing to where Zilisch will be the better driver, but nothing lasts forever, especially in NASCAR. Van Gisbergen will still be the favorite at every road course, but he cannot win them all, nor can he win them all in complete beat downs.
However, I don't think Zilisch is going to waltz in and start winning races by ten-plus seconds. Trackhouse is going to win a few road course races, but I think they will be closer than what we saw in 2025.
8. Connor Zilisch will win more races than Jesse Love
Piggy-backing off the prediction above, I think across all NASCAR series, Zilisch will win more races than Jesse Love. The 2025 Grand National Series champion, Love will remain at that level to defend his title, and he and the rest of the series will have their work cut out for them as a driver who won ten times will no longer be full-time.
I don't think that will change much. Love won twice in 2025, the Daytona season opener and the Phoenix finale. Prior to his victory at Phoenix, he did not have a top five finish in the first six playoff race. He will likely do a little better, but Zilisch will still have the chance to come down and run some races at that level. Plus, I think Zilisch will win at least one road course race in Cup. If we learned anything from last year, he could win two, and we cannot ignore that he was comfortable on ovals. He won at Nashville, Dover, Indianapolis, technical he won at Daytona, and he won at Gateway. That is a wide range of ovals.
We shouldn't be expecting Zilisch to hold his own against Larson and Hamlin at Darlington, but he could have the speed to win at any of the ovals and it shouldn't be a surprise if he pulls it off. I think it is more likely Zilisch wins three Cup races than Love winning three races at the second division.
9. A driver running in multiple entries will win a race in NASCAR's second division
This isn't that a driver is going to win a race in two different entries, but a driver who will start races in two different cars will win a race.
We know JR Motorsports is doing this with two of its drivers. Carson Kvapil was fourth in the championship in 2025, but he will be split over multiple cars in 2026. Originally, the plan was for Kvapil to be part-time in the #1 Chevrolet, but after how his 2025 season ended, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. said he would have a car for Kvapil for the entire season. It is unclear if Kvapil will run mostly in the #1 and then switch to a different car, but nothing was said that Kvapil would be in the car for entire season.
We do know Rajah Caruth will run 23 races for JR Motorsports in the #88 Chevrolet, but Caruth will also run ten races with Jordan Anderson Racing.
Kvapil did not win a race in 2025, and Caruth had good results in the Truck Series. One of them could win one race, but it could be someone different.
The restrictions on NASCAR Cup drivers running in the lower series has been relaxed, and they can now compete in ten races a season in the lower two categories, double from the previously limit of five. We could see Kyle Larson run multiple cars or Chase Elliott or Christopher Bell. They could easily win a race in one entry and then in their next appearance be running in a different car.
The prediction covers many possibilities.
10. The Burton family will lead more combined laps in the first 20 races than they led in the entire 2025 season
Both Burton family members are going to be back in NASCAR's second division in 2026. Jeb Burton is remaining at Jordan Anderson Racing in the #27 Chevrolet while Harrison Burton is moving to Sam Hunt Racing to drive the #24 Toyota.
Neither of them are outstanding cars. Harrison Burton drove incredibly well to make the playoffs with AM Racing in 2025. A similar effort will likely be required at Sam Hunt Racing. Jeb Burton is banking on winning at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta.
Why do I think this prediction is going to happen? Because they only led a combined 59 laps in 2025, I need a prediction that is something deeper than "Driver X will win at insert racetrack" and this is something else to watch.
Harrison had 48 laps led, and they were spread out. One lap led at the Daytona opener, five laps at Austin, 12 laps at Darlington in the spring, three laps at Pocono, four laps at Bristol, a lap at Talladega and 16 laps at Martinsville.
Jeb led four laps at the Daytona opener and seven laps at Talladega in the spring.
What this prediction is hoping for is one of these two drivers either ends up leading a good chunk of laps at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta when the field is rather calm, either have a good chunks of laps led during a pit cycle at any oval race because they went off strategy, or Harrison Burton and Sam Hunt Racing can put together a competitive day and maybe be a surprise at Darlington, Bristol, Chicagoland or somewhere else.
It is only 60 laps, how hard can that be?
11. Kaden Honeycutt will finish in the top three of victories in the Truck Series
Honeycutt takes over the #11 TRICON Toyota with Corey Heim moving... elsewhere. It is a shame we don't know what Heim will be doing in 2026. It does not appear to be anything full-time. Brutal.
But I digress, Honeycutt is moving to a great truck, and he is coming off a strong season where he was doing more with less at Niece Motorsports before being canned while in a playoff position, and then at Halmer Friesen Racing, he was competitive and was good enough to finish in the top four of the championship.
Honeycutt is going to win races. Being in the top three in victories is not that hard in the Truck Series. The driver with the third-most victories has had three victories or fewer in the last six seasons. The Truck Series is still not that competitive. Christian Eckes is returning, and Justin Haley will be leading the Ram program with Kaulig Racing, but it isn't scary deep.
It feels like 2026 will be between Layne Riggs, Ty Majeski and Honeycutt while Chandler Smith has an outside shot as does Eckes. Honeycutt should be able to win three races.
12. Parker Kligerman will get credited with a top five finish
Technically, Kligerman won two races in 2025, but neither are entered in the record book. Kligerman won the Truck race at Daytona, but he was disqualified after failing post-race inspection. Then in the summer, Kligerman replaced Connor Zilisch, who was nursing a broken collarbone, mid-race at Daytona, and Kligerman went on to cross the finish line in first.
But neither counted. In eight Truck starts, Kligerman's best finish was 14th on three occasions.
We don't know if Kligerman will be doing anything in 2026. There has been no word on Henderson Motorsports continuing after the passing of owner Charlie Henderson last year. I hope Kligerman has something lined up for a few races, and gets at least a top five finish.
One set of predictions are complete. Another set will come tomorrow as we are into our festive period and looking ahead to the rapidly approaching New Year.
