The circus is over. Formula One wrapped up its world tour this past weekend in Abu Dhabi, and with Formula One somehow being the last major series running at the end of the year, it is the final set of predictions we must revisit before we start making 2026 predictions in a little over a week or so.
For a season that saw a first-time champion and a three-way title fight to the very last lap, how did things play out compared to expectations from nearly a year ago?
1. None of the top five championship finishers in 2024 finish in the same position in 2025
Correct!
In 2024, the top five were Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri and Carlos Sainz, Jr.
In 2025, the top five were Norris, Verstappen, Piastri, George Russell and Leclerc.
These drivers went +1, -1, +1, +2, and -2 from one year to the next. Sainz, Jr. dropped four spots in his first year with Williams after his final year with Ferrari, which was expected.
We went into this season expecting change, and we got it, but Verstappen made a great effort to maintain the top spot. He was three points away from taking the title and then obliterating this prediction.
2. Max Verstappen has fewer total podium finishes but he will have a stretch with three consecutive podium finishes
Incorrect!
Verstappen had more podium finishes than last year!
Through the first 14 races, the Dutchman had five podium finishes. He had not finished on the podium in consecutive races, and he went into the summer break with no podium result in three races. He was on pace for 8.5 podium finishes this season, which could have been eight or maybe Verstappen would have caught a break and finished with nine. Either way, it was fewer than the 14 podium finishes he scored in 2024.
Then Verstappen ended with ten consecutive podium finishes to close out the season, surprising his 2024 total. That is outstanding.
3. Lando Norris will have consecutive finishes outside the points
Incorrect!
In 24 races, Norris scored points in 21 of them. In the three races where he did not score, he had contact with Oscar Piastri in the closing laps of the Canadian Grand Prix, he suffered a mechanical failure eight laps from the finish in the Dutch Grand Prix, and then he was disqualified from the Las Vegas Grand Prix for excessive skid block wear.
Those were the tenth, 15th and 22nd races of the season. None of those races occurred consecutively. Heck, only once did Norris finish off the podium in consecutive races, and that was the disqualification from Las Vegas and fourth at Qatar.
4. Lewis Hamilton wins at least four pole positions
Incorrect!
Hamilton's best starting position all season was third in Mexico City. He started outside the top 15 on four occasions this season. What we thought was going to be a special partnership definitely turned out to be something memorable, but for all the wrong reasons, as Ferrari regressed and Hamilton had his worst season of his Formula One career.
Forget the pole positions, Hamilton didn't even get on a podium. He had at least five podium finishes in his each of his first 18 seasons. He was sixth in the championship, which all things considered is not a horrible season, but he was only six points away from finishing seventh, which would have been a new career-low for the Brit.
And it doesn't feel like there is any belief things will be better in 2026.
5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli scores the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2013
Correct!
It is correct, but it is because Antonelli scored the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2012, as the Italian had 150 points, the fewest since 2012 when Nico Rosberg scored 93 points and Michael Schumacher had 49 points.
Despite the lack of production relative to the last decade-plus at Mercedes, Antonelli had an impressive season. He was on the podium twice, and was second in Brazil. He was also second in the sprint race from Interlagos. he scored fastest lap in his third career start at Suzuka along with two more fastest laps later in the season at Spa-Francorchamps and Austin. He did have a rough spring-into-summer where he was third in Canada but that was sandwiched between six results outside the points, including three retirements, but Antonelli made good strides over the course of the season.
6. Williams will have a top six finish on the road in a race that does not end prematurely
Correct!
This was clinched in the first race of the season, as Alexander Albon, in the changing conditions on the streets of Albert Park, ended up finishing fifth from sixth on the grid in Australia.
Boom! One race and done. However, Williams had seven top six finishes this year, and six of those came on the road with races that went the distance.
Albon had another pair of fifth-place finishes in Miami and Imola. He would then be fifth at Zandvoort.
Two races later, Carlos Sainz, Jr. scored a podium finish with a third in Baku. Sainz, Jr. was elevated to fifth at Las Vegas after both McLarens were disqualified, but in the next race, the Spaniard was third in Qatar with no post-race penalties for others helping his cause.
7. Haas scores its second most points in team history
Correct!
Haas scored 79 points, which surpassed 2024's 58 points for the second-most in the team's history. It was only 14 points off the team's high-water mark of 93 points from the 2018 season.
Oliver Bearman was tremendous this season, and he led the way for Haas in his rookie season with 41 points, including a five-race stretch from Singapore to Las Vegas where he finished in the points. This included Bearman taking fourth in Mexico City.
Esteban Ocon started well. Ocon was fifth in Shanghai, the second race of the season, and that would be his best finish of the season. He scored points in nine races, but the only time he scored in consecutive races was a ninth in Canada and a tenth in Austria.
8. Fernando Alonso says something that makes Lawrence Stroll respond and it is a headline
Incorrect!
Things played out very calmly at Aston Martin though Alonso dropped a place in the championship and scored 14 fewer points than the year before. The Spaniard never spouted off any displeasure that required a response from the big boss.
Which leads me to believe there is some faith in the Aston Martin camp that it was willing to take a step back this year for something greater next year. With Adrian Newey at the helm ahead of a new regulation set about to be introduced, perhaps Alonso has some belief he is about to get one of the best cars on the grid, and all he had to do in 2025 was keep his comments to himself.
9. The team formerly known as Toro Rosso will feature three drivers
Correct!
This was almost a given before the season started. There was no way Red Bull was going to avoid playing musical chairs. I think they played it much sooner than we expected. Liam Lawson had two races with Red Bull Racing before he was moved to the team formality known as Toro Rosso with Yuki Tsunoda leaving the Italian team to join the Austrian outfit.
How did things go after that? Lawson scored 38 points in his 22 races with the Red Bull's B-Team while Tsunoda contributed 30 points to the team that ended up third in the World Constructors' Championship.
10. Jack Doohan will have at least six finishes between eighth and tenth
Incorrect!
Doohan got six races total before he was tossed aside. He retired from Australia, then went 13th, 15th, 14th, 17th over the next four races before retiring at Miami and then being sidelined at Alpine for Franco Colapinto.
In hindsight, it is hard to believe Doohan would have had six points-scoring finishes. Pierre Gasly had five finishes in the points all season for Alpine. Gasly was sixth at Silverstone, so that is a positive. Colapinto scored zero points. He was 11th at Zandvoort. That was the closest the Argentine got to scoring in 2025.
11. Both Sauber drivers will score at least ten points
Correct!
Nico Hülkenberg scored 51 points with 15 of those points coming from his memorable third-place finish in the British Grand Prix, Hülkenberg's first career Formula One podium in his 239th start.
Gabriel Bortoleto scored 19 points in his rookie season with his first points coming in Austria, an eighth earning him four points. The Brazilian would pick up two more points in Belgium, and then he put himself over the top for this prediction when he was sixth in Hungary, earning him eight points! He would add four more points in Monza and another point in Mexico City.
This left Sauber with 70 points, a considerable leap from the four points it had in 2024, and 70 points was Sauber's best season since 2012, when it had 126 points.
Despite scoring 70 points, Sauber was still ninth in the constructors' championship, the fourth time in the last five seasons it has finished in one of the bottom two positions.
12. Michael Schumacher will move up to fourth all-time in winning percentage after the 2025 season
Incorrect!
This prediction was basically saying Max Verstappen would win six races or fewer in 2025. If Verstappen won six races of fewer, his career winning percentage would drop below Michael Schumacher's and Schumacher would move up to fourth all-time.
However, despite having only won two of the first 15 races and being on pace for three victories the entire season, Verstappen won six of the final nine races. That gave him eight victories on the season, the most in Formula One, and it left Verstappen with a career winning percentage of 30.47%, still fourth all-time and better than Schumacher's 29.74%.
Six-for-12, 50% again. A pair of these were heading in the other direction before Max Verstappen went on a tear and nearly pulled out an unthinkable fifth consecutive championship.
This was a fun season between McLaren's inter-team politics and Verstappen's charge. We didn't even mention Christian Horner's dismissal and Red Bull flourishing afterward, and by Red Bull I mean Verstappen because Tsunoda was still nowhere competitive as has been the case for multiple second drivers in that team.
George Russell did win two races with Mercedes. Ferrari had its issues and that was deflating, but Hülkenberg's podium finish will standout. Williams got on the podium twice and was rather competitive. Even Isack Hadjar, who started the season spinning out on the formation lap in Australia, scored a third in the Dutch Grand Prix. We had three drivers this season score their first career podium finish when you include Antonelli.
I don't know how things will play out next year the new regulations, but you have Audi joining. You have Cadillac forming a new team. Honda is moving to Aston Martin. Red Bull has brought Ford back into the series. It is at least looking good on paper.
