There still might be 32 days until the first race of the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season, but Arrow McLaren already picked up an early victory. This was in the form of a favorable court decision in the case relating to Álex Palou reneging on his McLaren contract. In a form of universal comedy, this preview was always planned for this date. It just so happened that the court decision came just a few days before.
Perhaps the legal victory can spur on more success on the racetrack, something McLaren had a fair amount of in 2025. The team made great strides as it made another driver change, but this one seemed to work as McLaren had two bonafide challengers after being stuck with one. McLaren may have made progress, but there is still one thing it has yet to achieve, and it is within its grasp.
At A Glance... McLaren has what it takes to win the championship
Year one with Christian Lundgaard saw McLaren's best results since it took over the Schmidt Peterson Motorsports program ahead of the 2020 season. Two McLaren drivers cracked the top five in the championship, a first for the organization. Patricio O'Ward was second in the championship, a new best. The team won twice. All the pieces are there for McLaren to come out as champion.
It will not be an easy task. Álex Palou will remain the top driver to beat, and Palou is not going to slow down. Winning the championship will require finding ways to beat Palou and not making any missteps along the way. It will need to be near perfection. Chip Ganassi Racing is not going to slip up, and others are lurking as a challenge.
Team Penske is not going to remain down after a tough 2025 campaign. For the first half of 2025, Kyle Kirkwood and Andretti Global was Palou's main championship rival. Throw in Will Power at Andretti, and it is another challenger that is looking to muddle up McLaren's title hopes. It doesn't matter if you beat Palou if others are beating you both.
The organization must find another level if it wants to claim the ultimate prize. O'Ward is there, but he must make another step. It is not going to be good enough to only win twice. Races cannot slip from his grasp when he is in control. He must be cutthroat and make the bold moves stick. Too many races have been lost because someone outmaneuvered the Mexican. That must change in 2026 if he hopes to be champion.
O'Ward responded greatly in 2025 when Lundgaard entered and was the best McLaren driver through the first quarter of the season. What could have been a domino falling in favor of the new driver and casting O'Ward into the secondary role flipped and O'Ward increased his grip on the team. He showed he was the best McLaren driver and was keeping the flickering hopes of a championship alive deep into the season. He is McLaren's #1 bullet, but he must hit the target. The #2 option is pretty damn sharp as well.
Lundgaard did not win a race in 2025, but when he was a threat he got everyone's attention. Six podium finishes is just as many as O'Ward pulled last season. What cost Lundgaard were a few mistakes, and he is still finding comfort on ovals. Plenty of drivers have overcome oval shortcomings. It means being near lights out on the road and street course, a difficult level to reach but not improbable for the Dane.
McLaren has two drivers it can rest its championship hopes on. That is something the team has not had in the previous six seasons. Two is all it needs. The team has already expressed how little faith it has in Nolan Siegel, a driver racing for his job with a Herculean task of cracking the championship top ten to assure he continues for another season. Two cars are serious seats and the other is a sideshow. McLaren is hoping soon enough it will become a three-headed monster. We will likely know that answer come the middle of July.
The pieces are in place for McLaren to come out as the best in IndyCar. It now must show it can put everything together. This is year seven of McLaren's involvement in IndyCar. It likely thought it would have won a championship by now. At some point, we will hear a clock ticking. There is one surefire way to silence it.
2025 Arrow McLaren Review
Wins: 2 (Iowa I, Toronto)
Poles: 3 (Thermal Club, Portland, Nashville)
Championship Finishes: 2nd (Patricio O'Ward), 5th (Christian Lundgaard), 22nd (Nolan Siegel), 33rd (Kyle Larson)
Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
10: Top five finishes in 2025, O'Ward's most in a season
3: Consecutive seasons with at least six podium finishes
196: Points behind Álex Palou in the championship last season
What is the best possible outcome?
It is the championship, but that would likely come with at least five or six victories. That would mean that losing a race after leading 80% of it. It would mean success on all three track disciplines. It could include an Indianapolis 500 victory, or it could be a top five finish in that race with a pair of oval victories or even a trio of oval victories. It would mean nearly eliminating all the mistakes and mechanical issues that cost him good results, and he would need probably a dozen top five finishes with 14 or 15 top ten finishes.
It would also mean Palou isn't as flawless as we saw in 2025. It is a double-edged sword. O'Ward would need to improve combined with Palou taking a dip in form, something that is easier said than done. O'Ward needs to combine his best season ever with Palou being slightly less great than we have seen for the last three years.
What is realistic?
A championship is realistic, but at worst, O'Ward is middle of the championship top ten. He should be a lock for the championship top five. The biggest concern is the team around him. Will it still have strategy snafus cost it potential victories? Will there still be races where McLaren cannot break into the top ten and is fighting just to finish 12th? In an attempt to make up for a deficiency, does O'Ward go over the line and cost himself?
If this team starts behind, it could be a long season chasing, and chasing only makes it prone to mistakes. No one can afford a slow start against Palou, but O'Ward especially. He is going to pick up his handful of victories and podium finishes. That likely will not be enough for the championship. He must avoid those occasional poor races, and some of those are out of his control.
Nolan Siegel - #6 Arrow Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
3: Longest streak of top fifteen finishes in his IndyCar career (9th at Barber Motorsports Park, 13th at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and 13th at the Indianapolis 500 last year)
2: Times as the best finish McLaren driver, and on both occasions did his both his teammate finish outside the top fifteen
6: Starts in the top 12 last season
17.833: Average finish in those races starting in the top 12
16.9: Average finish in Siegel's other ten races starting 13th or worse
What is the best possible outcome?
Siegel is able to harness a fraction of the McLaren speed that we see in the other two cars. He is consistently completing laps and finding pace on each race weekend, which turns into more top ten finishes though he is still the third best McLaren in the field. A race or two break his way thanks to a timely pit stop or caution and those lead to a podium result or top five result. The middle of the field is a complete mess and it means there are not as many challengers for the championship top ten.
Basically, the best possible outcome is if Siegel mirrors Santino Ferrucci's 2024 season with about ten or 11 top ten finishes, but most of those are finishes between seventh and tenth, but it is good enough to be ninth or tenth in the championship and at least fulfill the ultimatum McLaren team president Tony Kanaan set, securing Siegel another season at the organization.
What is realistic?
I am not sure Siegel can crack the top fifteen in the championship. The car can. The other two McLarens were in the championship top five. What is Siegel's excuse? He was 22nd in the championship in 2025 with two top ten finishes. He started outside the top fifteen in nine of 16 starts. In five races, he retired due to accidents. That can all improve, but still not look remarkably competitive.
Siegel was 69 points behind Kyffin Simpson, and Simpson was moderately competitive. Siegel's best day never came close to Simpson's, and Simpson only had six top ten finishes. Maybe something swings and Siegel is able to pick up five or six top ten finishes, but that is the best outcome, and even if he does that, he isn't going to finish better than 17th or 18th in the championship. Alexander Rossi was 15th last year and Rossi had seven top ten finishes, two of which were top five results. Is Siegel going to match that output? I don't think so.
Christian Lundgaard - #7 Arrow Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
3: Times as the best finishing McLaren driver in the first four races of the 2025 season
3: Times as the best finishing McLaren driver in the final 13 races of the 2025 season
3: Top ten finishes on ovals in 2025
2: Top ten finishes in 16 oval starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing from 2022 to 2024
What is the best possible outcome?
Lundgaard turns about half of those podium results from 2025 into victories in 2026. He isn't throwing away results, and he is taking cars that don't belong better than eighth into the top five. He is constantly the quickest McLaren driver and he is able to keep O'Ward in his mirrors. Ovals click for Lundgaard, and he is not only finishing in the top ten but in the top five and maybe sneaking onto a podium or two.
With three or four victories, about nine podium finishes and 13 top five finishes with his worst result all season being 13th, Lundgaard is able to take advantage of others not being as consistent as him, including Palou, who has a little bit of Josef Newgarden's luck rub off on him and about four races are much worse than they should have been due to things out of Palou's control. This opens the door and Lundgaard takes a slightly surprising championship though one that is not entirely implausible.
What is realistic?
Lundgaard is probably ranked somewhere between sixth and ninth in terms of championship favorites. It isn't crazy to think he could pull it off, but it is tough to imagine this will be the year he bests Palou, O'Ward, Scott Dixon, and all three Team Penske drivers. It is better than most, but for it to occur we would need to see a special start from Lundgaard and his oval results would need to be impressively better. Finishing ninth on the ovals is not going to be good enough.
Though he was fifth in the championship in 2025, Lundgaard can still approve. Though he finished 84 points behind O'Ward in the championship, on Lundgaard's best day he was carrying McLaren with ease. There were a few slip ups and some of that was down to rough days on ovals, but if he is the best McLaren driver at every road and street course, Lundgaard will end the season best in the team.
A victory feels highly likely. He was too close last year for none to occur again. A victory or two with another half-dozen podium finishes is basically what O'Ward did to finish second in the championship in 2025. Lundgaard can match that.
The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.
