Forty-six days. That is all between us and the first race of the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season. Time is vanishing quickly, and we must start previewing the entires for this upcoming campaign. Most grid spots are set. Plenty of drivers are in new locations, and everyone is hoping to improve from the year before.
Change has occurred at Team Penske, and team likely wants more change than has already happened. The 2025 season was the organization's worst in over a quarter-century. It was pretty good for most IndyCar teams, but Team Penske is not most IndyCar teams. It expects to be a regular contender, and that was not the case. After upheaval midseason, Penske has been able to reset ahead of 2026. Will that time allow the team to rise back to the top?
At a Glance... It Cannot be Worse
Team Penske went ninth, tenth and 12th in the championship last year. The team only won twice, and it didn't win until the 15th race of the season. Every time you thought it could not get worse for Team Penske, something swung against them. Mechanical issues, spinning cars, untimely cautions. Then there was the technical violation for illegal modifications to the attenuators found during Indianapolis 500 qualifying. All the mojo went against the team. The unthinkable kept happening at Team Penske.
It cannot be worse.
Races went against Team Penske at an alarmingly unlucky race. It is one thing to lose one race due to an untimely caution. It is another thing to lose races due to an untimely caution, tire strategy, mechanical issues and Louis Foster spinning into the path of Josef Newgarden while leading comfortably. Team Penske probably should have had two or three more victories in 2025 and be slightly off, not shockingly far from its normal position.
The managerial changes that saw Tim Cindric, Ron Ruzewski and Kyle Moyer dismissed from the team after the illegal attenuator modifications were found at Indianapolis certainly threw the team off. All three of those individuals were key when it came to strategy and setup on the cars. There were races where Penske didn't have the pace we were used to seeing, and it was likely down to a group fighting from behind.
An offseason should cure those issues. Everyone is starting at the same spot and everyone should be on the same page. That is going to help team cohesion, and it should help that every team should be a developed group. Even for Team Penske, having guys come in midseason disrupts the flow and there is a learning curve as everyone works together. That should not be an issue at the start of this season.
The team should rise. I doubt everyone will be in the same hole we saw last year. Beyond the managerial changes, this team is moving into life without Will Power. That is going to be an adjustment. Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin are capable of leading, but there is a trusted member that is gone who definitely extracted more speed at times when it was needed. That is a void that will be tough to overcome if not impossible in year one without Power.
Team Penske is going to find a way to be strong and competitive. It could have a few blips, but it isn't going to have the same number of unfortunate events go against in 2026. That alone is going to see its drivers move up the order, but it will not necessarily make the team championship contenders. It can get there, but it is going to be far more difficult.
2025 Team Penske Review
Wins: 2 (Portland, Nashville)
Poles: 3 (St. Petersburg, Gateway, Iowa I)
Championship Finishes: 9th (Will Power), 10th (Scott McLaughlin), 12th (Josef Newgarden)
Josef Newgarden - #2 Astemo/PPG/Shell/Snap-On Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
7: Finishes outside the top twenty last year
10: Consecutive seasons with an oval victory, the longest streak in IndyCar history
1,421: Days between Newgarden's most recent victory on a road/street course (Road America 2022) and the 2026 season opener from St. Petersburg
What is the best possible outcome?
We know Newgarden can be a champion. That is not out of the question, but it would require a big shift from last season. It would require more than three top five finishes including some on road and street courses. Outside of a third at St. Petersburg, his next best road/street course finish was ninth at Detroit. If he can avoid mistakes, both forced and unforced, and Newgarden can keep up his oval form while rediscovering a road and street course spark, he could be champion with a handful of victories.
What is realistic?
Newgarden has to get back into the championship top ten. He was 40 points on the outside last year. For a good portion of the season finale it appeared Newgarden was on his way for a winless season. I don't think Newgarden will find himself in such a position this season. I don't think he will go into the final oval race without a victory. The problem is his pace on road and street courses has not quite been up to snuff and challenging the likes of Álex Palou, Patricio O'Ward and Kyle Kirkwood in recent years.
If everything clicks on ovals, he could make the championship top five. I don't expect the road/street course woes to flip overnight. They can improve. It I don’t see Newgarden being the guy to beat or in the conversation at 80% of those races. There will be more days where he is fighting from the back half of the top ten to get into that top tier. If he is competing at that level, it will require perfection on the ovals to be champion. The fight should be to get back into the top five.
Scott McLaughlin - #3 DEX Imaging/XPEL/Gallagher/Pennzoil/Sonsio/Good Ranchers/Odyssey Battery/Freightliner Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
13.17647: Average finish in 2025, the best among the Team Penske drivers
112: Laps led in 2025
14: Laps led on road/street courses in 2025
What is the best possible outcome?
It should not be unthinkable that McLaughlin could be champion. He was not that far off in 2024. It is still an adjustment when you consider McLaughlin's lack of open-wheel experience up until five years ago, but we have seen him succeed on all three track disciplines. He just hasn't put all three together at once, or he has come up against the buzzsaw that is Álex Palou and not been as clinically impressive as the Catalan driver.
A combination of victories on all three track styles with regular finishes in the top five could see McLaughlin end up as champion.
What is realistic?
McLaughlin feels like Team Penske's best championship hope at the moment, but with how tough it is at the top it is not a given McLaughlin will be able to break through. If he and the #3 team cleans everything up from last year, this group will have a great chance.
He was one late caution away from winning the season finale and not being the winless Team Penske at the end of 2025. Like Newgarden, I don't think McLaughlin is going to enter the finale without a victory, and I don't think he will enter the final oval race without a victory either. I think he is going to win early with the early combination of St. Petersburg, Phoenix, Arlington and Barber Motorsports Park. Two of those tracks he excels at, short ovals suit him well, and Arlington is an unknown for everyone, driving for Team Penske will be an advantage there.
We don't see many mental lapses from McLaughlin. That is why he has a better chance at the championship. That is why the worst should be the championship top five.
David Malukas - #12 Verizon 5G Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
12.5909: Average finish in 22 oval starts
15.8333: Average finish in 24 road course starts
16.6: Average finish in 15 street course starts
0: Top five finishes in 39 road/street course starts
6: Top ten finishes in 39 road/street course starts
What is the best possible outcome?
Malukas entering and becoming the best driver in IndyCar is easier said than done, but not impossible. The best is likely somewhere in the championship top ten and possibly challenging for the championship top five. It is territory he has never been, but Malukas was close in his only year at A.J. Foyt Racing, ending up 11th in the championship.
Malukas must show he can at least hang at the front. He still has much to prove. He needs a season where he is fighting for the podium on road and street courses and not just relying on oval results. He could win an oval race, and any victory would go a long way. A victory or two with a handful of podium finishes and about nine or ten top ten finishes would likely get him somewhere in the championship top ten, and a good first year at Team Penske.
What is realistic?
I think Malukas can win a race and be in the championship top ten. I don't think Malukas is going to replicate what Josef Newgarden did in 2017. This is a driver who has been good on ovals, and not that impressive on road and street courses, and those make up about 2/3rds of the calendar. I don't think just joining Team Penske is all Malukas needs to excel. I think there is a speed deficit that has him somewhere just above the middle of the field.
This should be his best season ever in IndyCar. It is expecting a lot to bank on oval races to entirely make his season. His championship finish will go as far as his oval results. Somewhere in the back half of the championship top ten feels like where Malukas will be. If he is excellent on ovals or if he makes a giant leap on road and street courses, he could be comfortably in the top ten. The top five is achieveable if he is nearly flawless. If his oval results are off, he is going to be outside the championship top ten. We already know Team Penske can finish that low.
The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.
