1. Not often do you review the second race of a doubleheader before the first race, but that is the case of the 2026 Milwaukee doubleheader, and with a second race about to start in just over three hours, we are going to make it quick on this race.
Patricio O'Ward took the victory after being rather unnoticed until the final stint when the took the lead through the pit cycle. O'Ward didn't make many, if any, waves over the first 190 laps. The most notable thing was a botched pit stop early when the right rear tire was not secured before O'Ward was dropped off the pneumatic jack. It dropped O'Ward from a podium spot to just outside the top ten, but it was early enough for a recovery.
O'Ward found his pace and kept the car in the top ten. When it came time for the final stop, he was able to leap into the lead. We saw plenty of competitive cars in this race, and we saw plenty of teams shoot themselves in the foot. That played a factor in O'Ward winning this one. If Will Power doesn't speed entering pit lane on the final stop, I am not sure we are talking about an O'Ward victory.
2. Scott McLaughlin's team decided not to stop under caution with just over 100 laps to go, and McLaughlin was able to hold his ground on older tires. It kept him at the front while he was mostly in the middle of the top ten to that point. O'Ward got out ahead of McLaughlin in that final stop. McLaughlin had a few chances to make a pass on O'Ward, but O'Ward was better getting through traffic, and McLaughlin will settle for second.
McLaughlin's run on older tires was reminiscent of what Álex Palou did last year when Palou was on older tire and facing Christian Rasmussen. Palou held off Rasmussen for a good portion of time before Rasmussen got through, but even on the older tires, Palou took second. In this case, McLaughlin used older tires to place him at the front. It could have gone wrong. Scott Dixon also stayed out and dropped like a rock.
3. Christian Lundgaard was probably the better Arrow McLaren driver today, and Lundgaard will have to settle for third. This was Lundgaard's best oval race of his IndyCar career. He deserved the podium finish. There is another race to finish. We can dissect his oval form this weekend and what it could mean moving forward in a little bit. He looked comfortable today. Comfort goes a long way on an oval.
4. David Malukas did not look set for a good finish and then he was up in the top ten and pushing the top five just by stopping earlier. For almost half this race, it felt like Malukas was not going to have a good day. Finishing fourth is a great result considering where he spent most of this race.
5. The championship is essentially over. Álex Palou was fifth and Kyle Kirkwood was sixth. Palou's championship lead is 97 points, however, Palou will get at least five points for the race that must be completed. That makes the championship lead 102 points. Kirkwood must outscored Palou by 48 points to get back within 54 points. That means Kirkwood must win and Palou finish last in the race to finish. That is asking a lot since 90 laps are complete.
If we are honest, Kirkwood must be within 48 points to win the championship because Palou is going to start Laguna Seca in a week, another five points to Palou. Palou holds the tiebreaker, which means Kirkwood would need to win the championship outright. The points are not there for Kirkwood to leave Milwaukee within 48 points of Palou. Kirkwood is essentially down 102 points and must outscore Palou by 54 points in the Milwaukee race to be completed when the most points Kirkwood can make up is 48 points.
It is over despite what you are being told.
As for Palou's race, he looked good but not great. A lot of drivers were chasing tire strategy and stopping early to avoid losing time but I think Palou had the speed that he could have run long and sacrificed time to get it back at the end of subsequent stints. Teams could not get away with running 40 laps of every stint. Palou probably had the speed to have a few stints go 50 laps to trap those teams short stinting.
6. Kirkwood was in the same boat as Palou. Kirkwood had good speed at the end of stints, but once everyone started making pit stops 35-40 laps into a run, everyone jumped at it. Kirkwood was brilliant making up spots early after starting 24th, and he had great pace later in tire life. I think the tail wagged the dog a bit and Kirkwood, like Palou, should have just run 50 laps and traded time at the end of a stint to get it back later. They would lose some spots, but eventually the other teams would be caught out making an extra stop.
It could have been the circumstances of today with the extra race to complete that teams didn't want to take too much of a risk going long on tires. The last thing a team wanted an accident because of a lack of grip, but it feels like going ten laps longer for two stints was a strategy that could have paid off for a few teams, Kirkwood's included.
7. Rinus VeeKay was strong early and then was shuffled back during pit cycles. For Juncos Hollinger Racing, pit stops have actually been competitive this season compared to the likes of Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing. It feels like a bit of shame for VeeKay. For a good portion of this race, he looked like a podium contender if not a possible winner.
8. Christian Rasmussen recovered for finish eighth. Ed Carpenter Racing didn't start strong. Like Malukas, halfway through this race I was not expecting Rasmussen to finish in the top ten. This result significantly helps Rasmussen and ECR's Leader Circle fight as Caio Collet was 23rd and Collet is not doing well in the other race, and Rasmussen was five spots ahead of Schumacher in this race. There is still one more race to complete, but Rasmussen has already created breathing room.
9. I am not sure Marcus Ericsson was mentioned once during this race, but he finished ninth. Ericsson has been the third-best Andretti Global car all week, but still respectable on pace.
10. Louis Foster hung on for a top ten finish. This has been an odd weekend for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The team looks good one moment and then you see Graham Rahal putzing around in 22nd, three laps down, and Rahal is doing just as poorly in the race that is to resume.
11. Alexander Rossi took 11th but he was never competitive.
The best Santino Ferrucci looked was in the final stint when he was a lap down. Ferrucci has not been good this weekend, and that is a surprise.
Mick Schumacher did well. It was only his fifth oval race. I think he learned a lot and these were not easy conditions with tire wear. I am not sure Schumacher has ever been in a race where the tires are done after 35 miles.
An unforced error cost Will Power victory. We know Power is prone to this. He has been doing this almost his entire career. His last few years at Team Penske he was due for at least two of these races a season. Power and Kirkwood were both carving up the field in the early stages. It is a damn shame Power didn't see this one through.
Scott Dixon never had the pace. Dixon gambled like McLaughlin. The difference was McLaughlin had a good car. Dixon didn't. It showed immediately. Finishing 15th is probably a just result for how Dixon was running.
12. Neither Meyer Shank Racing car was competitive. Marcus Armstrong was 16th, one lap down. Felix Rosenqvist was stunningly 20th, two laps down, and Rosenqvist was running so well in the first Milwaukee race, and he will still be running well when it resumes, as Rosenqvist is second.
Nolan Siegel did a great job being a road block today. He held up everybody at some point.
Sting Ray Robb didn't cause much trouble and was 18th.
Kyffin Simpson went unnoticed in 19th.
Dennis Hauger was 21st, and didn't really have a word said about him.
We touched about Graham Rahal being slow. I almost think Rahal should volunteer to driver for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing next year. Then we will know for sure if it is the car or driver. The other two RLLR drivers have looked competitive this weekend. Rahal hasn't one bit.
Caio Collet was slow. Since he retired from three of the first four oval races, I sense Collet could not afford an accident, but if the pressure is on for him to finish in the Leader Circle, he cannot got out there timid. I feel like that is how he has been driving. He cannot have an accident but he does not feel confident to push. It doesn't help that A.J. Foyt Racing doesn't quite have the speed. It isn't like Ferrucci has been a threat this weekend.
13. Two accidents in this race. Romain Grosjean spun twice. The first time off of turn two was no harm, no foul. It cost him spots after Grosjean was tearing through the field early. The second put him in the wall on a restart. The first spin ruined a promising start.
Josef Newgarden also spun exiting turn four and nudged the wall enough to ruin his day. Newgarden struggled on the long run, which was surprising because in the first stint he caught and passed Álex Palou for the lead. Newgarden was dictating the pit cycle and was one of the first cars to stop almost every cycle. He spun because he did not have grip. The car was still good enough for the top five. Newgarden didn't have control over it.
14. It is odd to write this and know 90 laps of another race have already been completed. We know how the next race is going. Which makes this race a little unusual.
What happened to Rosenqvist and MSR?
Even Rossi and ECR?
Why did teams that looked strong in the first 40% of yesterday's race not show the same muscle in this full race?
How will this race resume?
Are we going to see everything pick up as status quo or will the conclusion of the first Milwaukee race flip toward what we just saw?
15. Teams used a lot of tires in this race. The teams only had ten or 11 sets for the entire weekend. I think everyone really only used one set in yesterday's race. Some may have been on their second. Everyone in the top fifteen but McLaughlin made five pit stops in this race. Armstrong made an extra pit stop under the Grosjean caution to try and go off strategy and that did not work. The tires Armstrong took off the car were not that worn. I don't think they had a full green flag lap on them.
Basically every team but McLaughlin, Grosjean and Newgarden used six sets of tires. Minus the set or two from the first portion of race one and then minus a set or two from practice. Everyone might have two sets remaining for the final 160 laps. This is rough math and very unofficial.
The conclusion of the first Milwaukee race could be extremely different because everyone was willing to burn through tires in this race. It very well could come down to McLaughlin and Newgarden having an extra set and that could dictate the race.
Based on fuel, the upcoming race conclusion is a two-stopper, but as we saw on tires, everyone will want to make three if not four stops over those 160 laps. The outcome of this race very well could play into Team Penske's favor, at least for two of its drivers.
16. We will be back in about four hours to wrap up this head-spinning Milwaukee weekend. Stay tuned!
