1. On second viewing, Marcus Ericsson's victory in Markham was outstanding. In a messy race, an unusual strategy that bucked preconceived notions of paths to success did not appear to be the best way to the top, but with almost everyone else needing to save at least a little fuel, Ericsson's team's choice to run as long as he could to shortened the final stint was brilliant strategy. It allowed Ericsson to push toward the end of his middle stint while everyone was still running conservative, some more than others, and it allowed Ericsson to emerge from the pit lane in sixth position instead of being much further down the order. The lap before Ericsson's in-lap was his fastest of the race.
Ericsson's final stint was set-up to be a 22-lap sprint against drivers whose final stints were 38 laps in length (Romain Grosjean), 31 laps in length (Will Power) and 36 laps in length (Álex Palou, Scott McLaughlin, Rinus VeeKay and David Malukas). McLaughlin and VeeKay each fell out of the running on pace. Malukas had to watch his pace and smacked the barrier for good measure when he had already lost ground. Ericsson still had work to do. With 15 laps remaining, it looked settled to be Grosjean vs. Palou as Ericsson was still in fifth-place and over eight seconds behind the leader. This strategy paid off in the closing laps.
Palou struggled with tire wear at the end and could not even mount a challenge on Grosjean. Grosjean had to run a specific pace to make it on fuel. Power was the only other racy driver in the lead group, but even the nine-lap difference proved to be too much for Power to hold off. Ericsson laid a hip check on Power to pass in the hairpin, but the Swede was destined to get that position even without needing to be that aggressive.
All that was left was Grosjean in Ericsson's sights and it took him no time to take the lead. Grosjean wa defenseless. Once he got to the lead, Ericsson's advantage was on full display. He won by over 7.5 seconds and he only took the lead with five laps remaining. What appeared to be a foolish strategy that was going to cost the team glory turned into a emphatic victory.
2. We touched upon Romain Grosjean yesterday, but he pulled off a rather staggering strategy to finish second. He had to run 36 laps in the middle stint and then 38 laps in the final stint. Now, the middle stint saw 16 of the 36 laps run under caution. That helped him get that far. Grosjean's final pit stop happened simultaneously as Kyle Kirkwood hitting the barrier and bringing out a caution, which could not have worked out better for Grosjean. He was going to need a handful of caution laps to get him to the finish. He got four immediately and then another three after that when Josef Newgarden was spun in the hairpin.
If Ericsson was not the lone driver to remain out after what turned into the final caution of the race, Grosjean probably wins this race. Maybe Power or even Ericsson would have been able to apply pressure and run Grosjean out of fuel or been able to pass him had Ericsson also stopped on lap 60, but Grosjean was three seconds up the road from Power for second. One team bucking all conventional wisdom is frankly what kept Grosjean from victory as Grosjean and Dale Coyne Racing also bucked conventional wisdom with their strategy.
Just when you think you do enough being completely crazy, someone just happens to be crazier than you.
3. Will Power was third. He drove an incredible race to finish third. He was active early. The team had the strategy worked out, and it was probably the right choice for Andretti Global to split the strategy and not have both cars stop with 31 laps remaining. It was probably the difference between the team finishing 1-3 and 2-3. Though I am not sure who would have been second if Power and Ericsson had each stopped on the same lap.
4. I hate when a driver makes a mistake and we call him human. We know Álex Palou is human. Did you see how he handled contract negotiations? Qualifying accident aside, the same can go with Palou in this race and Palou not having the pace at the end. It doesn't always work out. It looked promising, and then the tires fell off, but Palou didn't need to finish first or second or third. All his championship rivals shot themselves in the foot. If we were to have given Palou another 19 points for a victory, he would have been 152 points clear and would just need to outscore the competition by ten more points to clinch the championship in Washington, D.C.
That isn't the case, but Palou is going to clinch the title. It could still be claimed in Washington, D.C. with another repeat of Markham, which I am not sure we can rule out, or it will be claimed in Milwaukee, likely on Saturday afternoon.
5. I am not sure how Patricio O'Ward finished fifth but he looked more competitive in the race than he did all weekend prior. The car found its form. Stopping with 31 laps to go likely got him a handful of more positions as McLaughlin and VeeKay had to save fuel, but O'Ward was pushing for fourth. That car found its sweet spot during the race, and it led to a far more impressive result than was expected at the start of Sunday.
6. I don't think Christian Lundgaard did anything wrong in this race to finish sixth. He surprisingly stopped early and committed to a three-stop strategy, but stopping on lap 16 was the same strategy Grosjean took. The difference is no one knew how many cautions would come. Grosjean's team rode it out and decided to turn this into a two-stopper. Lundgaard made the move to stop under caution at lap 33 to set up a final pit stop within the final fuel window. It shook out for Lundgaard to finish sixth but he didn't really do anything wrong. It is hard to find fault with his strategy either. If everyone knew how the cautions would have fallen they all would have done something different. Ericsson was fortunate the final 29 laps were caution-free. One caution on lap 67 and Ericsson is finished ninth or tenth at best.
7. Rinus VeeKay looked to be the first benefactor when he stopped just before Mick Schumacher's caution. Then VeeKay lost spots on the restarts and sustained front wing damage, and he still would up on a top five position, but needed to save fuel and dropped to seventh. Some races work out that way. I think every driver flip-flopped from being screwed by a caution and benefitting from a caution each time the yellow came out. It ended up somewhat benefitting VeeKay even if seventh doesn't feel like a great result.
8. This was a pretty good race for Scott McLaughlin and the need to save fuel in the final stint is what cost him, but did it ever feel like McLaughlin was a threat? Even when McLaughlin was second to Louis Foster and then second to Grosjean, it never felt like McLaughlin was going to pounce. In the early stages, it felt like Ericsson was the bigger threat behind McLaughlin in third, and then Palou was the bigger threat in the final stint while running behind McLaughlin.
That has been the story of McLaughlin's season. It has been good, but outside of St. Petersburg and maybe Nashville, have we really felt McLaughlin is a true contender and someone everyone will need to beat for victory?
9. Graham Rahal took ninth. Rahal spent a fair amount of the race in the top ten, but he never was pushing for more. He could hold his spot but we never really saw Rahal on the offensive, and yet ninth feels right for this team.
10. To paint how messy this race was, Santino Ferrucci took tenth and Ferrucci never looked competitive this weekend. Someone had to finish tenth. Ferrucci mostly kept his nose clean and it got him a far better result than his performance this weekend would have suggested.
11. Next case in point for how messy this race was, Sting Ray Robb was 11th and Nolan Siegel was 12th. Siegel did leap some laps and ran a fair amount in the top five because of his pit strategy, but Siegel was shuffled back. Robb didn't even run that well. He had a few wide runs into corners, and Robb is essentially the reason Marcus Armstrong spun, as Robb ran Armstrong wide and Armstrong spun partially as an evasive move to miss the barrier but also because Armstrong was run into the marbles off line on the exit of the hairpin.
12. Speaking of Siegel, he received an avoidable contact penalty for spinning Josef Newgarden, and Newgarden ended up a position behind Siegel in 13th. Newgarden started 20th and didn't really factor in this one. The most time he spent in the top ten was right before Siegel hit him. Maybe Newgarden would have been seventh or eighth without that contact but that is the best his race would have been.
13. Kyffin Simpson was the final car on the leap lap in 14th, and Simpson nearly spoiled the party with a spin in the hairpin with five laps remaining. The officials let Simpson clear himself, which has not been the officials M.O. of late. We didn't need a late restart to help this race. Thankful, Simpson was given the time to point his car in the right direction.
14. It was never explained what happened to Dennis Hauger because he was 11th at the start of the final lap and then did not complete it, and he was placed 15th. It was a strange race for Hauger. He was fuel saving early or at least didn't have the pace and after the first restart was shuffled from the top five to 20th in a blink. He kind of recovered and was running in the top ten before losing spots late in the race. Something wasn't quite right for Hauger in this one.
15. Let's breeze through the rest of the field...
Marcus Armstrong was a lap down after the spin with Robb's assistance. Armstrong took a stop-and-hold penalty for ignoring a safety working trying to hold him because Armstrong was trying to spin back around before the pace car pull through, only for Armstrong to unsuccessfully flick his car in the right direction and proceeding to block the track.
I understand why Armstrong attempted it. I don't understand why the safety workers don't point the car in the right direction so a driver can restart pointing the right direction. They have the jack with the wheels on it to spin the car around. There was no need to hold Armstrong while facing oncoming traffic and essentially trap him a lap down if they have the ability to point him in the right direction.
I did agree when McLaughlin and company got their positions back after that because they had to slow for essentially a blocked track because a driver didn't listen to instructions. There was no reason for McLaughlin and others to lose out because of Armstrong neglected orders from the officials. Two wrongs do not make a right folks. Rights make rights. The officials did the right thing.
16. I said I was going to breeze through the field and then had to take a detour on the Armstrong incident, which was another bad result form Armstrong and another miserable weekend for him, but I digress...
David Malukas smacked the barrier late and it cost him a top ten finish. It wasn't the greatest day for Malukas, and he was set to lose points anyway in the championship. I don't think he was driving over his head. I think he clipped the barrier late trying to save fuel.
Scott Dixon spun after contact with Dennis Hauger and Dixon collected Christian Rasmussen in the process. This was an incident that happens on a street course. Dixon came down on Hauger. Hauger had nowhere to go. I don't think Dixon didn't anything wrong. He just wasn't clear at that point. Racing incidents still exist in this world. Rasmussen cannot catch a break on a street course. Dixon was able to continue after repairing his suspension, but lost many laps in the process. Rasmussen's day was over before halfway.
Caio Collet had suspension damage early and essentially ran a 67-lap test session. It does feel like Collet is driving with pressure on him, which is a little nuts, but he is driving for A.J. Foyt Racing. If we find out in a week or two the team has told Collet results must improve or he will be dropped it would surprise no one, but it is also A.J. Foyt Racing. They will replace Collet, have the same results and then be looking for another new driver in 2028 as well.
Alexander Rossi had a tire puncture, which we are pinning on Álex Palou for contact in the hairpin. If we are going to penalize all contact these races are going to become stale. Incidentally contact must exist. Sometimes it will bite you. Two cars side-by-side bumping on exit of a 30 mph hairpin and unfortunately resulting in a cut tire should not be a penalty. It almost doesn't matter because Rossi suffered a gearbox failure and that ended his race.
Another mechanical issue for Ed Carpenter Racing. Interesting.
17. Kyle Kirkwood was 21st. Louis Foster was 22nd. Both cars clipped the barrier on the inside of turn three. We covered it yesterday, but for Foster this is a harsh result because he felt like possibly the driver to beat in this race. It is hard to pin this on the driver. We see drivers clip the inside of turns before. Scott Dixon did it at Belle Isle not long ago. It is a risk on a street course. Kirkwood could have been in the top five without this incident. Kirkwood's accident is what really secured Palou the title.
18. Two more retirements: Felix Rosenqvist was done after 18 laps with fuel pressure issues. Rosenqvist never really got to participate in this race. It would have been fun to see what kind of strategy Meyer Shank Racing would have run for him.
Mick Schumacher was the first victim of an inside barrier. Schumacher clipped the inside of turn four on lap 15 while running in the top ten. Two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing cars were outside the top twenty, which makes it hard to say the team should be positive about this weekend, but it should be. All three cars made the second round of qualifying. Schumacher looked comfortable. Foster was one of the fastest cars in this race. Rahal spent a lot of time in the top ten.
We have seen enough of these races from RLLR to know the team will likely still be spotty, but it should be pleased it went to a new course and all three cars were at the front even if the results didn't go their way.
18. It is late, this is a second impressions, and we haven't spoken about the issues from Markham, notably the delays to circuit construction that led to a lost practice day on Friday. We will come back around to those.
19. I do want to end on this... Marcus Ericsson's 63 starts between victories, is the fifth-longest drought in IndyCar history. The only longer droughts are Graham Rahal (124), Johnny Rutherford (97), Marco Andretti (77) and Mario Andretti (73). It doesn't feel like it has been that long since Ericsson won a race. Three-and-a-half years is not nothing, but it doesn't feel like Ericsson has been down for that long. It is not necessarily the history you want, but it does mean you did something well for a drought to end.
