Showing posts with label Carlin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlin. Show all posts

Friday, October 15, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Carlin's 2021 Season

Our second IndyCar Wrap-Up moves us to Carlin, the only full-time single-car team in 2021. Carlin made no changes to its driver combination from 2020. After remarkable oval pace last season, 2021 did not see the same bountiful points days. Things did not improve much on the road and street courses either. But one drought did end within the organization. 

Max Chilton found a bright spot in another difficult season

Max Chilton
Chilton was back to compete in only the road and street courses and Indianapolis for the third consecutive season. Chilton had finished 22nd in the championship the previous two years as a regular but non-full-time driver. He entered 2021 without a top ten finish in his last 39 starts. 

What objectively was his best race?
Chilton got a top ten! Tenth at Road America! His first top ten finish since Watkins Glen 2017! His first top ten with Carlin!

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Road America! Chilton went off-strategy and it was risky one to make, but hard-charging and needing a splash of fuel late lifted him into the top ten. It also netted him seven laps led. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Twice Chilton finished 24th, first was at St. Petersburg when a hydraulics issue knocked him out after 18 laps. The other was the Indianapolis 500 where Chilton was just 24th. That was the best he was going to do.

What subjectively was his worst race?
How about the one he didn't run? He missed the Grand Prix of Indianapolis due to visa issues preventing him from returning to the country from the United Kingdom. What made that worse is Carlin didn't even fill the car, which might have made sense at the time if you looked at it as cost saved, but the team forfeited valuable entrant points. I don't know if any driver thrown in last second would have pulled out a top ten result, but someone could have pulled out a 16th or 17th and gotten the team something greater than zero. 

Max Chilton's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 25th (134 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 7
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 18.833
Average Finish: 19.417

2021 was not as good as 2020 for Conor Daly at Carlin

Conor Daly
Returning as the Carlin oval specialist, Daly drove the Texas doubleheader and Iowa for the team while splitting the rest of the season with Ed Carpenter Racing and running a third ECR car at Indianapolis. Daly won a pole position in 2020 driving for Carlin and he had four top ten finishes with the team.

What objectively was his best race?
Gateway. He went from 20th to 11th, mostly by avoiding the accidents, but it was a respectable night, though he just couldn't get into the top ten.

What subjectively was his best race?
Like I said, Gateway, though it had its flaws.

What objectively was his worst race?
Daly was caught in the opening lap accident at Texas, rolled over, and was classified where he started in 24th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The issue with Daly's Carlin program is it is only three races and nothing substantial can be taken from it. It is hard to celebrate the positives or worry about the negatives. You can have three fluky races and think you are on top of the world (*cough* Harding Racing *cough*) or you could have Daly's three events with Carlin, which doesn't really tell us much. Not to mention he was set up from behind at Texas because both races were set via entrants' points after qualifying was rained out. 

If there is one disappointing thing about Daly's races is he never really showed that same pace as 2020. I don't know if it was Daly's lack of time with the team or another reason. He had one practice session at Texas, and Gateway was a one-day show with practice in the middle of the afternoon for a night race. There was hope that Daly and Carlin could rework their short track magic at Gateway. Instead, Daly qualified 20th, and 11th is a little flattering. If half those accidents do not happen, I am not sure Daly cracks the top fifteen. 

Conor Daly's 2021 Statistics with Carlin
Championship Position: 18th (34 of Daly's 235 points came with Carlin)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 20.0 (Field was set via entrants' points for both Texas race. Daly qualified 20th at Gateway)
Average Finish: 18.667

An Early Look Ahead
Carlin is the team we know the least about heading into 2022. 

Will Chilton return? 

Will it remain a single-car?

Does it expand? 

Will it still be Chilton and Daly? 

How does Daly's future at Ed Carpenter Racing play into this? 

Through four IndyCar seasons, Carlin has yet to get on a podium let alone win a race. Its only top five finish was in its 12th race at Toronto in 2018 with Charlie Kimball. It had one top ten finish this season. It had four top ten finishes in the two previous seasons and it had six top ten finishes in 2018, all with Kimball.

The team has shown speed. Kimball did fine. Patricio O'Ward had a few strong performances when he stepped into that car in 2019 and we saw what Daly was able to do with this team on ovals. Carlin lacks a leader and it really cannot be a single-car team in its current situation. It either needs to commit to one car with one driver or expand to two cars if Chilton is going to run all the road/street courses and Indianapolis. 

It has been four years. Chilton is not the driver who can build the team. Carlin has a goldmine of drivers in its rolodex. It should be able to pluck one out and immediately be significantly more competitive. Chilton did get out of the first round of qualifying twice in 2021. The speed isn't completely absent. 

But does the team have funding to get to two cars? Chilton has said the teams need two cars to be competitive. That will likely require a driver with a check. The good news for Carlin is it has name recognition in Europe and there are a bunch of European-based drivers who are looking to IndyCar. Trevor Carlin praised Formula Two race winner Dan Ticktum and said Ticktum would be a great IndyCar driver. Ticktum has said he is looking to IndyCar. 

A few Indy Lights drivers have also been linked to Carlin. 

This is a key moment for Carlin's long-term commitment to IndyCar. It could get a driver now to build around for the next three seasons. We saw many drivers step into an IndyCar for the first time in 2021 and look incredibly competitive. Romain Grosjean nearly won a few races. Kevin Magnussen looked strong. Christian Lundgaard was right at home on debut. Marcus Ericsson rounded into a race winner this season. Three of the top five in the championship are under the age of 25 and all three of those drivers won multiple races. 

Carlin could become an IndyCar contender, but it has to decide why it is IndyCar. Does it want to be competing in North America's top open-wheel series and have a global reach beyond the junior series in Europe or is it just a place for Max Chilton, son of team CEO Grahame Chilton, to remain employed? The team can run in IndyCar and be successful without Chilton. Is the Carlin front office willing to accept that?

The talent is out there and if Carlin finds its gem it could start to have greater success. If it doesn't and leaves the series, it will be a missed opportunity for the team and IndyCar. 


Friday, February 19, 2021

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Carlin

Many IndyCar teams have already sorted out their 2021 plans, but one has confirmed nothing, and we wait for Carlin to confirm its first driver let alone its entire lineup. We have an idea what we will see, but not enough to engrave it in stone. 

We expect Carlin mainstay Max Chilton to return for his four seasons with the organization. After competing full-time and semi-regularly, we are not sure the extent of Chilton's role. In 2020, he ran all the road and street courses and Indianapolis. In place of Chilton, Conor Daly competed in the remaining oval races and made Carlin into a sleeper. 

That entire dynamic could be blown up this season. We will preview this team as best we can knowing it could be thrown for a loop at any point over the two months between now and the Barber season opener.

2020 Carlin Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Texas)
Poles: 1 (Iowa I)
Championship Finishes: 17th (Conor Daly - non-Indianapolis ovals only), 22nd (Max Chilton)

2021 Drivers:

Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
After stepping away from ovals in 2019, Chilton committed to the road and street courses in 2020 and was willing to attempt the Indianapolis 500 again. After all the schedule alterations, Chilton's schedule was set for nine races. 

There was an encouraging start to the season with Chilton qualifying tenth for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The race went in a different direction, as he slid back to 16th. He ran two mundane races at Road America with finishes of 17th and 15th before taking a month off before his Indianapolis 500 return. 

While the team won pole position at Iowa and had two encouraging races, speed was difficult to find at Indianapolis. He qualified 30th, but he stayed in the race and was fast enough to stay on the lead lap. He couldn't do much more than that and was 17th. 

He returned at Mid-Ohio and qualified 12th in the first race but dropped to 16th. He went from 18th to 13th in the second Mid-Ohio race. A top ten finish came painfully close in the first Harvest Grand Prix race. After qualifying ninth, Chilton spent much of the race in tenth or on the cusp of tenth, but he finished 11th. The second race saw him slide back to familiar territory, 18th on the grid and 19th at the checkered flag. 

For the St. Petersburg finale, he rounded out the grid in 24th position, but went forward with some help from strategy and attrition. He was one of the biggest movers in the race but ended up 12th and again shy of a top ten result.

Numbers to Remember:
100: Chilton completed 100% of his possible laps in 2020, 800 of 800 laps.

39: Consecutive races without a top ten finish

26: Consecutive starts running at the finish.

90.14: Percentage of races running at the finish in Chilton's IndyCar career (64 of 71 starts).

Predictions/Goals:
Doesn't Chilton just want a top ten finish? Something respectable that at least fills the stat sheet and he can brag about? 

Chilton hasn't been poor, and you would think someone with his finishing record would have one day where he at least finishes tenth. IndyCar is littered with drivers who pull out a random top ten finish. He has his close calls, but this has to be the year it finally comes through. 

From looking at Carlin's oval results, the speed is there. It hasn't translated equally to the road/street course schedule. This is a capable team and has made strides since its first season. I hope Carlin sticks with it because it is making ground. It might be taking longer than the team would have hoped, but it has a good thing going. 

We aren't entirely sure of Carlin's 2021 plans. We expect Chilton to be back with a similar schedule as 2020, but with there being only four oval races, I would say he should just return to full-time. If he is running Indianapolis, then he shouldn't be that concerned about Gateway and he could probably make it through Texas. It is clear his oval ability is behind most. He failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 in 2019 and he was at the tail of the field in 2020. If there had been bumping, he likely would have been sweating it and forced the team to have gone more aggressive with its setup, which could have positioned him to fail to make the race in successive seasons. 

It's ironic that a man's whose only Indy Lights victory was at Iowa; whose best IndyCar finish was fourth in the Indianapolis 500 and who has his top two starting positions in IndyCar come on oval is struggling with oval pace. It has just been the case for Chilton. It seems to be mental more than anything else.

Three races are a tough sell. With how Conor Daly has raced the last two years for this team, unless Chilton commits to a full season, they should bring Daly back. He made that team a serious contender and the team should not let that go. Daly has gotten Carlin closer to victory than any other driver in the team's three seasons. The oval pace shown suggests Carlin needs to enter two cars for Indianapolis, especially if Chilton does decide to run it. Chilton limits the team to a mid-pack result at Indianapolis, but Carlin can put together a car good enough for the top ten. Daly will be out of the mix because of his Ed Carpenter Racing commitments, but with the right driver Carlin could haves its best Indianapolis 500 in 2021.

One of the team's goal has to be returning to two full-time teams. That requires money and it is tougher to attract drivers during this time. We know the interest is there from last season. We knew Felipe Nasr was going to get a spin and Sérgio Sette Câmara was a rumored possibility. I think the one thing holding Carlin back is it hasn't been able to run two stable cars for each of the last two seasons. If this team can find that steady driver with steady sponsorship it could be to Chevrolet what Meyer Shank Racing has been to Honda. 

What does Chilton need to do in 2021?
Get at least one top ten finish. 

Qualify in the second round of qualifying at least once. 

Finish ahead of his starting position in at least half his starts.

Complete as many laps as possible again. 

What does Carlin need to do in 2021?
Get Conor Daly for the other three oval races if Chilton is not full-time. 

If Daly is not available, call the likes of J.R. Hildebrand, Oliver Askew, Spencer Pigot or Carlos Muñoz for the ovals. I know Muñoz's career has been stunted because of lack of sponsorship but this is a funded car with Gallagher sponsorship for those races. Is there anyone better than Muñoz for this seat and a second ride at the Indianapolis 500? Someone needs to give Trevor Carlin Muñoz's number.

Begin the process of re-establishing a second full-time team. 

Find one of the eight-dozen drivers with Carlin ties who can fill that seat and overachieve. 

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 


Tuesday, November 10, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Carlin's 2020 Season

Our fourth IndyCar Wrap-Up will look at Carlin, one of two full-time single-car operations from the 2020 season, but this one was different. Two drivers split the #59 Gallagher Chevrolet and the results were reasonably good. The team saw a breakthrough with its first IndyCar pole position at Iowa and a handful of top ten results followed. However, the road course portion was not as good as the oval chunk.

Max Chilton competed in IndyCar in 2020

Max Chilton
For the second consecutive season, Chilton ran a limited schedule, contesting all the road and street course races, however, he did return to the Indianapolis 500 after missing last year's race. Though Chilton continued his trademark consistency, results left a lot to be desired.

What objectively was his best race?
Chilton was 11th in the first Harvest Grand Prix race.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the first Harvest Grand Prix race, because Chilton qualified ninth and spent the entire race hovering around tenth only to fall short of that elusive top ten finish. 

A shout out to the Indianapolis 500 because Chilton had not run an oval race since the end of 2018, and he qualified 30th for this year's race after failing to qualify last year. In the race, he went from 30th to 17th and completed all 200 laps. Not the most impressive day, but one that deserves a little credit.

What objectively was his worst race?
Coincidentally, it came the day after his best race. Chilton was 19th in the second Harvest Grand Prix race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Chilton doesn't have a worst race because they are all the same, below average days where he is not noticed. 

I will say Chilton doesn't have a worst race because he also doesn't do anything wrong. He doesn't tear up equipment or become a hazard while being lapped. He doesn't get lapped either. He was on the lead lap of every race this season. He meets the minimum requirement to be an IndyCar driver. I can't say he doesn't belong out there because every race he shows he is quick enough to race an IndyCar. No one likes to go unnoticed, but I would argue it is better to go unnoticed because you are quick enough to stay out of harm's way than to be noticed for being slow and a potential liability to other drivers.

Are there better drivers in the world? Of course, but let's not eat our own and cast out Chilton because he is not special. IndyCar needs a balanced field and there are plenty of drivers out there who would be a hazard if in place of Chilton.

I don't know why the results haven't broken through for him on just one day. The speed is there in the cars and he shows it in qualifying. Maybe 2021 will be when he gets his break with Carlin.

Max Chilton's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 22nd (147 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 17.777
Average Finish: 15.111

Carlin was the good portion of Conor Daly's season

Conor Daly
After getting a handful of oval outings last year with Carlin, Daly returned to the team for the five oval races that were not the Indianapolis 500, while he ran all the road and street courses and the Indianapolis 500 with Ed Carpenter Racing. At Carlin, Daly brought the team solid results, including the team's maiden pole position. 

What objectively was his best race?
It was the first race of the season. Daly was sixth at Texas. 

What subjectively was his best race?
I am going to say the first Iowa race, because Daly started on pole position and led 13 laps. He did drop to eighth in the final results because he stopped early on his final stop and the tires were not there in the closing laps, costing him a handful of positions. Despite the finish, he was in the top ten all race. For a moment, he was a contender, a serious threat, and that is something we do not saw about either Daly or Carlin.

Texas does deserve a mention because he drove from 19th into the top ten. It was a clean night and an important one for the team to show its 2019 success was not a fluke. It was a great start to the season for both driver and team.

What objectively was his worst race?
With Carlin, his worst result was 13th in the second Iowa race, one where he had to stop with 35 laps to go because the team was not going to make it on fuel and Daly was third when he had to make the stop!

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is the second Iowa race. He did get caught out when he stopped two laps before the first caution of the night, which coincidentally was for Ed Carpenter. That set him back and he had to go off strategy and hope for a little luck to get back to the front. His Iowa weekend was better than what an eighth and a 13th tell you on paper. 

Carlin has shown good pace the last two years, on both ovals and road/street courses. This was the first weekend where it all came together, and the team was a front-runner. Something is there. It is just under the surface, but Carlin could be on the verge of a breakout.

Conor Daly's 2020 Statistics with Carlin
Championship Position: 17th (116 of 237 points with Carlin)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 17
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 10.8
Average Finish: 9.0

An Early Look Ahead
Remember when Felipe Nasr and Sérgio Sette Câmara were going to be in the Carlin's second car this year? Man, this year was weird. 

We don't know Carlin's plans for 2021.

I think the team has something good going, though it has yet to stand on the podium and its only top five finish was back in its first season. The team didn't have the funding for two cars, but the one car it did have was respectable, especially with Daly behind the wheel and Chilton was not awful, though he remains a tenth or two off being a top ten finisher. 

The hope would be the team could expand back to two cars, but with the current environment, that will be a difficult accomplishment. Chilton is always going to be in the plans because of his father's involvement with the team and Gallagher sponsorship and Chilton hasn't been terrible. He made nine starts and completed 800 of 800 laps in his nine starts. It sucks that he keeps falling short of the top ten, but he has been competent, and I would rather have Chilton on the grid than a handful of other drivers.

If Chilton decides to do the Indianapolis 500 again, there will only be three open races. 

Daly could keep splitting time between Carlin and Ed Carpenter Racing. If anything, it would make sense if the teams established an official partnership, not merge, but extensively shared data and worked together at every race, especially if Daly has the same setup in 2021. 

However, Daly might be sold on being a full-time driver with one team, one set of engineers and one set of overalls. In that case, would the two Texas races and Gateway be enough for another driver, especially if the team does not run that driver in an additional car for Indianapolis? I am sure there is someone who would bite, but I doubt any of those biters could be close to as competitive as Daly. 

The team has expressed interest in expanding back to two cars. The only issue I see is funding and a driver will have to bring it. At that point, Carlin is at the behest of the driver and the quality of that driver will determine which direction the team heads. There are a handful of veterans out there who could come in and help that team move forward, which would help Chilton's results as well. In all likelihood, the team would have to take on a younger driver, new to IndyCar and the results would fluctuate more. If Carlin has to bring in multiple drivers to fill the second car, it is going to be another year of stunted progress.

There is the concern Carlin could call it a day, especially if Chilton decides he is ready to walk away from IndyCar. That would be a blow for IndyCar. Carlin was a big snag a few years ago. It is an international junior formula powerhouse. IndyCar was always a big step up, but Carlin is a stout organization and it can find success. It has yet to happen in IndyCar. The team has had some growing pains, trying to find the funding to field two cars and then the pandemic occurring at the wrong time forced the team to consolidate its efforts. 

Carlin has the speed to be competitive. If Carlin sticks with it, good things will come. I hope the team returns for 2021 and I hope it gets the desired results next year.


Wednesday, February 26, 2020

2020 IndyCar Team Preview: Carlin

Our penultimate 2020 IndyCar team preview takes us to the team that used the most drivers in 2019. It is Carlin!

The team's sophomore season did not go quite as planned but the team showed potential. Now Carlin hopes to put together better results in 2020 but it will have to do it with uncertainty over its 2020 driver lineup. Three of the six drivers used in 2019 have found rides elsewhere for this season and it appears it will be another season where both cars will see multiple drivers cycle through the seats over the course of the 17-race schedule.

2019 Carlin Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Gateway)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 22nd (Max Chilton), 24th (Conor Daly), 25th (Charlie Kimball), 26th (Patricio O'Ward), 27th (Sage Karam), 35th (RC Enerson)

2020 Drivers:

Felipe Nasr - #31 Carlin Chevrolet
Nasr has spent the last two years in IMSA's WeatherTech SportsCar Championship in the #31 Cadillac for Action Express Racing with 2020 marking his third season with the team.

Since coming to America, Nasr won the 2018 Prototype championship with Eric Curran with a victory at Belle Isle, a runner-up at Daytona and podium finishes at Sebring, Mosport and Road America. In 2019, Nasr had Pipo Derani join him as co-driver and the all-Brazilian pairing won at Sebring and Petit Le Mans, had a runner-up finish at Daytona and Belle Isle but the duo was second in the championship.

Prior to Nasr's time in IMSA, he spent two years driving for Sauber in Formula One and he scored a fifth place finish on debut in the 2015 Australian Grand Prix. That 2015 season ended with 27 points, 15th in the championship and 18 points clear of teammate Marcus Ericsson. In 2016, Sauber struggled and it was the last team to score points but it came with Nasr at Brazil with a ninth place finish securing him two points and those two points lifted Sauber to tenth in the constructors' championship over Manor.

Nasr was also the 2008 Formula BMW Europe champion and 2011 British Formula Three champion.

Numbers to Remember:
6: Nasr has raced at six tracks on the 2020 IndyCar schedule between IMSA and Formula One (Austin, Long Beach, Belle Isle, Mid-Ohio, Laguna Seca).

10: Podium finishes in 21 IMSA starts

78: Starts for Nasr with Carlin between Formula Three and GP2.

Predictions/Goals:
Have respectable races.

Nasr has been on the periphery for IndyCar for the last few years and he tested with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. The problem is in the recent past Nasr's testing experience has been used to lift the cache of Álex Palou, who reportedly was almost 6/10ths of a second faster than Nasr at a Mid-Ohio test last year.

Nasr has Formula One experience and did reasonably well driving for Sauber. He has come to IMSA, won a championship as a rookie, was vice-champion as a sophomore, won the 12 Hours of Sebring, won Petit Le Mans and he has been one of the best drivers in American sports car racing.

We do not know how many races Nasr will do with Carlin, if any, but whatever races he does will be used by some as a vindication for writing Nasr off as a hack if the finishes are not at least in the middle of the field and not beating whoever his Carlin teammate is that day.

Carlin showed bright spots last year. The team had good qualifying pace and got some encouraging results with Charlie Kimball, Patricio O'Ward, Conor Daly, and even Max Chilton had some good runs.

This team can get a few top ten finishes but I am not sure it is on the verge of challenging for top five results and I am not sure Nasr will necessarily step right in and in a handful of races be running for eighth or ninth.

I think the goal for Nasr is to at least be close to making it out of the first round of qualifying in every road and street course event he gets, make it to the second round of qualifying at least once and in the races be the top finishing Carlin driver. If he is at least responsible for the team's best finish it is not going to reflect that poorly on him.

Sérgio Sette Câmara - #31 Carlin Chevrolet
Câmara completed his third season in Formula Two in 2019 with last season being his first with the DAMS program.

The year started with a pair of podium finishes at the opening round in Bahrain but he would not get his first victory until the 12th race of the season, the sprint race at Red Bull Ring. He won the Abu Dhabi feature race from pole position and ended his season with two victories, eight podium finishes and 17 points finishes from 22 races to give him fourth in the championship.

Câmara spent his first two years in Formula Two driving for MP Motorsport and Carlin. In 2017, he did not score a point in the first 14 races of the season but closed the year with points in seven of the final eight races, including a victory in the Spa-Francorchamps sprint race and a runner-up finish in the Monza sprint race, elevating him to 12th in the championship. With Carlin, he did not win a race but he had eight podium finishes and was sixth in the championship despite missing the Monaco round due to an injury.

From 2014 to 2016, Câmara made 66 starts in Formula Three with no victories four podium finishes and 22 points finishes.

Numbers to Remember:
9: Of 18 podium finishes in Câmara's podium finishes came in sprint races.

14: Top five finishes in Formula Two last year.

15: Points behind MP Motorsport teammate Jordan King in 2017.

Predictions/Goals:
Be competitive with Marcus Ericsson and Santino Ferrucci and run better than Jordan King did in IndyCar.

Câmara is coming off a good period in Formula Two and he was a championship contender for most of 2019. He won races against the likes of Nyck de Vries, Nicholas Latifi, Luca Ghiotto and Jack Aitken. That is a good group of drivers in Formula Two. Câmara was a McLaren development driver. This is a late bloomer when you look at his Formula Three results and then compare it to the last two seasons in Formula Two.

Ericsson and Ferrucci are two drivers that are fresh off careers in Europe. Ferrucci and Câmara were contemporaries for a few seasons with Ferrucci getting better results in Formula Three with Câmara taking the upper hand in Formula Two. King beat Câmara in the championship as teammate in 2017, the year before King came to IndyCar but King's GP2/Formula Two results did not reach the heights of Câmara.

Câmara's history suggests he falls in line with these three and all have shown promise but have only had one real season in IndyCar apiece. Ericsson and Ferrucci were both in the top five at times, each had weekends where they matched the pace with other IndyCar front-runners and King was known for his strong qualifying pace but the race results did not follow. If Câmara can get a handful of top ten finishes and make it out of the first round of qualifying a few times he will be on the right track for hopefully more in IndyCar in 2021.

Similar to Nasr, we are not sure how many races Câmara will get, if any. He could get three or four races and that is not a big enough sample size to draw anything from. If it is a 50-50 split of the races and Câmara gets eight or nine races we will get a better idea where he lines up. If he gets 11-14 races then we will get a good feel if he has a handle on the car.

Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
Chilton's second season with Carlin started with him starting shotgun on the field at St. Petersburg in 24th. He would climb to a 16th place finish.

Austin appeared to be going better with Chilton starting 13th but he finished a lap down in 21st. He started and finished 22nd at Barber and finished a lap down at Long Beach in 14th. His first lead lap finish of the season was at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis but it was an 18th place finish.

Chilton failed to qualify for the Indianapolis and he followed it up with finishes of 17th and 15th at Belle Isle. Before Texas, Chilton decided to step away from the car for the remaining oval races but he continued for the remainder of the road and street course races.

At Road America, he qualified 22nd and finished 16th. A 14th place finish followed at Toronto. The season closed with a 16th at Mid-Ohio, an 11th at Portland and a 13th at Laguna Seca.

Numbers to Remember:
30: Consecutive starts without a top ten finish.

17: Consecutive finishes.

99.2: Percentage of laps completed in 2019 (960 of 968 laps).

Predictions/Goals:
Get a top ten finish.

Just one top ten finish.

Chilton has had solid days in IndyCar. The last two years have been far from those. He hasn't been completely lost. He did make the Fast Six at Mid-Ohio in 2018. He was 13th in qualifying at Austin and Toronto last year and he qualified tenth at Laguna Seca. The pace is there in the Carlin entries but it just hasn't translated to race pace yet.

I think Chilton can turn it around, not necessarily into a race winner or a guy that is competing for top five finishes every race, but a guy who could get a handful of top ten finishes each season. It would just be nice to see him mix it up with some of the bigger names more often.

Along with getting just one top ten finish, I think Chilton needs to pick up his average qualifying position. It was 18.1 in 2019. If he could get that down to 16.1 or 15.5 that would be a good move.

The other important thing for Chilton is to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. Last year, he missed the race and wasn't really ever showing the speed necessary to make the field of 33. He was fourth in 2017 and led the most laps in that race. He hasn't lost all his ability. Carlin had three entries miss last year when you take into consideration the McLaren effort was in partnership with Carlin. It wasn't all Chilton but after stepping away from the remaining ovals in 2019 he will make another attempt at Indianapolis in May and it would be a big confidence booster if he were to make the field one year later.

I am curious to see what Carlin decides to do with the #59 Chevrolet for the remaining four oval races. Chilton has said the other four oval races do not interest him but the history of Indianapolis is why he will give it another crack. I don't think he will go back on the plans but if the results are going the right way and he felt really good at Indianapolis perhaps there is a chance he takes on the other ovals and instead of splitting this car it is all his own. I don't think that will happen but crazier things have happened.

The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET


Friday, October 4, 2019

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Carlin's 2019 Season

Our second IndyCar team review takes us to a team whose sophomore season in IndyCar was up and down but I think overall was still a success and a step forward. Carlin went through six drivers and had two car miss the Indianapolis 500 but 2019 was an improvement over 2018, as hard as that may be to believe.

The 2019 season saw a drastic career shift for Max Chilton
Max Chilton
It was another tough year for Max Chilton and his second year with Carlin seemed to be a breaking point for him. After missing the Indianapolis 500, Chilton scaled back his operation, stepping away from ovals but returning for road and street courses.

What objectively was his best race?
It was at Portland, where Chilton finished 11th. This result came after a slew of retirements. Chilton started 20th and when six cars ahead of you on the grid are taken out in the span of three green flag laps, he had his work cut out for him but he still kept his nose clean and got a much needed good result.

What subjectively was his best race?
There were not many race that stood out for Chilton but the one that deserves recognition is Laguna Seca. Chilton made the second round of qualifying and he ended up 12th on the grid. He spent the race on the edge of the top ten and he finished 13th. It wasn't the greatest day in the world but in what has been a rough two seasons for Chilton he really just needed a day where he was in the middle of the pack and mixing it up with some notable names instead of languishing in the back.

What objectively was his worst race?
I think objectively we have to say the worst thing to happen to Chilton in 2019 was missing the Indianapolis 500. Chilton never had the speed. It was a case of he was going into the Last Row Shootout and had not been in the top 33 all week. He seemed to be the one driver we could chalk in as one of the drivers that would not be on the final row. To make it worse, Chilton got out of the car and said it was comfortable. He was a mile per hour off the final spot each qualifying day.

It was tough to see because Chilton is not a horrendous driver. He is not a hazard on the racetrack and he has done respectable on ovals.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Putting Indianapolis aside, his subjective worst race is his worst finish, 21st at Austin because he started 13th and it appeared this was going to be a race where Chilton was going to be in position for a fantastic result. Chilton lost a lap early and was never a factor for a top ten finish.

Max Chilton's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 22nd (184 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 18.083
Average Finish: 16.083

Conor Daly had plenty of reasons to be happy in 2019
Conor Daly
Daly ran for three teams in 2019 but his most starts were with Carlin, unexpectedly. Daly ran four races, all ovals for the team, in place of Chilton. He also made two starts for Andretti Autosport, the double-point races at Indianapolis and Laguna Seca, and he was substitute for Marcus Ericsson at Portland as the Schmidt Peterson Motorsports driver had a conflict with his duties as Alfa Romeo F1's reserve driver.

What objectively was his best race?
Daly put on a stunning drive at Gateway and got a sixth place finish. Daly was running with the big boys and this wasn't the guess of him getting a top ten because he didn't make a pit stop before a caution. It is realistic to think if Sébastien Bourdais does not spin and Takuma Sato, Tony Kanaan and Ed Carpenter all made green flag pit stops that Daly could have been competing for a podium finish.

What subjectively was his best race?
Gateway was Daly's best race in 2019 but I think every oval race he was in because in each race he was fighting and not backing down.

At Indianapolis, Daly kept up with his Andretti Autosport teammates and he got a top ten finish but he could have done better than that. If that final caution for Graham Rahal and Bourdais getting together doesn't happen, I think Daly finishes at least sixth.

At Texas, thrown in the car somewhat last minutes because Chilton had made the decision to step away from ovals, Daly improved with each lap and we was running ahead of Will Power, Marco Andretti, Felix Rosenqvist and Ed Carpenter for a good portion of that night. That is a night where he finished 11th but he could have been a top ten finisher.

At Iowa, Daly kept his nose clean and finished 13th, not his greatest night but an important one because as a substitute if he cannot win the best thing he can do is bring his car home in one piece.

What objectively was his worst race?
Daly's worst two races were the final two races and the worst result was 22nd at Laguna Seca. Daly was running about 11th to 15th and he spun when trying to pass Marco Andretti in the hairpin. Daly stopped on the curbs, brought out the caution, lost a lap and he could overcome that one mistake.

It is important to mention Portland because he was taken out in turn one by Graham Rahal. The results will say 21st but he qualified ninth and it could have been a fantastic substitute performance again.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The season didn't ended the way he would have liked at Portland and Laguna Seca but even with his spin at Laguna Seca this is a case where Daly really didn't put a wheel wrong and if anyone passed the audition in 2019 it is Daly. He has made 49 starts in his career, which is a lot of starts, but Daly is ready for a breakthrough and he appears to be a driver that could take a team to the next level.

Conor Daly's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 24th (149 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 14.333
Average Finish: 13.429

Charlie Kimball did Charlie Kimball things in 2019
Charlie Kimball
The 2019 season was a step back for Kimball. After eight full seasons, Kimball was part-time in 2019 and he made seven starts, two more than he was anticipated in making.

What objectively was his best race?
Kimball had finishes of tenth on two occasions, Pocono and Portland.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is hard because in both races where Kimball finished tenth a significant number of cars were taken out ahead of him. I am actually going to say his best race was the Indianapolis 500 because he was in the top ten and was caught in the Rahal-Bourdais accident. He had nowhere to go and the damage put him four laps down.

Kimball was the one Carlin driver to make the Indianapolis 500 and it was not a case of he got in by the skin of his teeth and it was not possible for all Carlin drivers to miss the race. Kimball qualified 20th and he improved throughout each stage of the race.

What objectively was his worst race?
Unfortunately, Indianapolis was where Kimball was classified in 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It could be Indianapolis for a third time but he qualified eighth at St. Petersburg and was forced to make an early pit stop for repairs and it was a race where he could have finished in the top ten and at Texas he qualified 17th and was working toward the top ten when a right rear bearing failed and took him out of the race. Kimball had better days in 2019 than the results will show.

Charlie Kimball's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 25th (117 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 17.667
Average Finish: 16.143

What might have been if Patricio O'Ward had been full-time in 2019?
Patricio O'Ward
What appeared to be a coup, picking up O'Ward for Austin onward, this dream signing evolved into something else. In the blink of an eye, the Mexican driver became a Red Bull development driver and just when it seemed O'Ward would be another driver in a stellar rookie class, he was gone with little reminder of his presence other than what might have been.

What objectively was his best race?
In the second start of Patricio O'Ward's IndyCar career, he started eighth and he finished eighth at Austin and he was better than eighth most of the day. O'Ward had no preseason testing and he jumped in the car and was immediately quick. It was an outstanding weekend for him.

What subjectively was his best race?
The one thing to note for O'Ward is in seven starts he started in the top ten four times. O'Ward showed the Carlin cars had pace and the results didn't always play out but this team is almost there. If the team can commit to two full-time drivers, maybe it could put a driver in the top ten of the championship.

What objectively was his worst race?
O'Ward missed the Indianapolis 500 and that was a bummer. It didn't help that is seemed O'Ward was going to be fine to make the race until an accident in practice forced the team to scramble. All the wind was out of his sail after that and it wasn't meant to be.

What subjectively was his worst race?
His worst result in a race was 19th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis but that was also one of his best races. That race was scattered for O'Ward. He hit Rossi before they had reached the green flag and it led to a penalty but he recovered, worked his way to second and set fastest lap and then the rains came. The tire pressures were off when he switched to the wet tires and he lost a lot of ground. Once the team realized the mistake it was too late and he finished where he started.

Patricio O'Ward's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 26th (115 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 11.714
Average Finish: 13.857

Sage Karam made his first street course start in four years in Carlin cameo
Sage Karam
Karam ran the Indianapolis 500 with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing for the fourth consecutive year but he made two surprise starts for Carlin in the middle of the season at Toronto and Iowa.

What objectively was his best race?
It was when Karam finished 19th in the Indianapolis 500 but he did work his way up from 19th and he put down a strong qualifying run in the Last Row Shootout when it seemed many were split over whether or not he was going to make the field.

What subjectively was his best race?
It really is just the Indianapolis 500. Karam made three starts in 2019 but there were few bright spots.

What objectively was his worst race?
It is Iowa, where Karam was classified in 22nd. He qualified 14th and was hoping for a respective showing, then spun early and Felix Rosenqvist clipped Karam, which meant he was going to need more repair than he otherwise would have needed had Rosenqvist been three feet to the left. Then Karam had another incident with Takuma Sato, which was mostly out of his control.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Iowa but let's mention Karam's third start at Toronto. It was a late announcement and he had not been on a street course since 2015. It would have been insane to think he could have been competing in the top five but he was 21st in qualifying and 21st in the race five laps down.

I want to see Karam get a shot at a full season, something that has still eluded him. It is tough to see where he will squeeze in because there are many drivers cycling through IndyCar and not an abundance of open seats. I wish IndyCar was a series with 30 full-time cars because Karam would be full-time but that is not reality.

Sage Karam's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 27th (39 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 22
Average Finish: 20.667

RC Enerson was back in IndyCar for the first time since 2016
RC Enerson
The 2019 season might have been more for Enerson. He was in the discussion during preseason testing but the introduction of O'Ward shuffled Enerson into the background. Enerson's return, his first start since 2016, came at Mid-Ohio, the site of his IndyCar debut.

What objectively was his best race?
Enerson made his first IndyCar start in three years when he showed up at Mid-Ohio. He qualified 22nd and he finished 17th.

What subjectively was his best race?
For a guy that had not been in the car for a race for three years, I thought Enerson handled himself quite well. He was running with his teammate Chilton, so it was an encouraging day.

What objectively was his worst race?
Enerson did finish a lap down, which is not great, but it was the best he could do.

What subjectively was his worst race?
If there was one thing about Enerson's season that was kind of a bummer it is he only did one race. At the start of February, it seemed like Enerson was going to get a handful of races with Carlin and be splitting the second car with Kimball. Enerson had a great showing when he made three starts with Dale Coyne Racing in 2016. It has been a long time coming for his second outing. This is a talented young driver and, same with Karam, I wish we got to see more of Enerson.

RC Enerson's 2019 Statistics
Championship Position: 35th (13 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 17
Average Finish: 22

An Early Look Ahead
Carlin has 1.5 open seats for 2020 and who knows who will land at this team.

I think Carlin's sophomore season was a minor success. It stunk that the team had to have six drivers rotate between two seats but I think the team tried a few things out and it is prepared for year three.

The one issue is money. It appears Gallagher support is going to be there but let's not write that one down in ink. Carlin could find itself in the difficult situation that Ed Carpenter Racing finds itself with one full-time driver and an entry split with one driver on road and street courses and another for ovals. I think Chilton is a good driver and he should run road and street courses if that is what makes him feel comfortable but that makes it difficult for the team to fill out its lineup.

It is not crazy to think all four of Daly, Kimball, Karam and Enerson should be full-time. On shear number of starts, Daly and Kimball have the advantage because they had more time in the car and they got the best results. The problem is both drivers should be full-time. If Chilton is there then one will be full-time and the other will either have to settle for ovals or go elsewhere.

If the money is there I would love to see Daly get the full-time ride. Kimball would be a smart hire for the oval races and maybe something could be worked out where Kimball runs the five oval races with Gallagher support and Carlin is a three-car effort for the road and street courses. That is a stretch but let's not entirely rule it out.

There is also the chance that Daly and Kimball get better opportunities elsewhere. If that happens, Carlin will be faced with having to find replacements and it could be a slight step back in year three. The team is in a good position for 2020 but driver selection could be the key factor into whether or not the team continues its upward trajectory.


Tuesday, February 26, 2019

2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Carlin

We have made it to the final week of the IndyCar team previews and the ninth preview will take a look at the sophomore season for Carlin. The British team's debut season in IndyCar was productive in checking off many of the basic milestones for a team. The team crawled before it walked and now it is putting one foot in front of the other. With running being the next step it will have to do it with a slightly altered driver lineup. Max Chilton will be back but Charlie Kimball will have a reduced role and it is uncertain if one or more drivers will cycle through the team. One familiar face to IndyCar fans has tested for the team but has yet to be confirmed for any races.

2018 Carlin Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 5th (Toronto)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 17th (Charlie Kimball), 19th (Max Chilton)

2019 Drivers:

Charlie Kimball - #23 Novo Nordisk Chevrolet
There were some difficult days for Kimball in his first IndyCar season without Chip Ganassi Racing. He qualified outside the top twenty in the first three races of the season but he worked his way from 20th to tenth at Long Beach, giving Carlin its first top ten finish in IndyCar. At Barber, Kimball was the only driver not to restart the race on Monday after he spun into the barrier on lap 11.

The Grand Prix of Indianapolis did not go well but Kimball was respectable in the Indianapolis 500 with a starting position of 15th and a lead lap finish in 18th. He got the team another top ten finish in the second Belle Isle race after starting 21st and working his way to eighth. He ended spring with a solid performance at Texas, starting 12th and finishing tenth.

Two below-average performances kicked off the summer at Road America and Iowa but things went Kimball's way at Toronto. Despite starting 20th on the grid, Kimball got into the top five and pushed James Hinchcliffe but he had to settle for fifth, the first top five finish for Carlin.

Kimball traded good and bad results for the rest of the season with a 16th at Mid-Ohio before he kept turning laps at Pocono and finished ninth. Gateway was not a good race but at Portland he started 25th, dead last on the grid, and finished seventh. Sonoma was an abysmal day with Kimball finishing nine laps down in 22nd.

Numbers to Remember:
106: Consecutive IndyCar races starts. The last race Kimball missed was Mid-Ohio 2012 with a wrist injury.

14.5: Kimball's average championship finish after eight IndyCar seasons.

19.4: Kimball average starting position in 2018, the worst of his career and the worst of all regular drivers in 2018

Predictions/Goals:
Make the most of his five starts.

Kimball might not be a fan favorite and nor is he one of top five or six drivers on the grid but he has been a competent driver and we know he can get good results out of a race car. He may have only one victory to his IndyCar career but he has finished in the top ten of the championship twice and he has his scattering of top five finishes.

He will be at St. Petersburg, the Indianapolis 500, Texas, Pocono and Laguna Seca. There is part of me that hopes he can get a few more races out of this season. I doubt we will see him pull out a full season but it would be nice to see him at Road America or Mid-Ohio.

The one thing Kimball has been good at is living up to the expectations. No one goes into a race weekend thinking he is going to be in the top five and competing for a victory but we know he could be a top ten driver and we also know that he can take an average car and get a good result out of it. We don't expect anything spectacular from him but he gets sufficient results and that is what will probably happen with his five scheduled races.

Kimball isn't going to win at St. Petersburg or the three ovals but if he qualified 14th at the season opener and finished 11th, that seems about right. If he qualified 19th for the Indianapolis 500 and finished 12th on the lead lap that checks out. If he went from 17th to eighth at Texas, no one should be surprised.

I think he will do well but this is a crossroads without a clear landmark in either direction for Kimball's career. He turned 34 years old last week, young enough to spend at least another five to seven years in IndyCar but it appears that is not likely. Where does he go? Are sports cars an option? Could he spend the next decade running the Indianapolis 500 only? Why not NASCAR? He has plenty of time left in his career and it is tough to see him in such an uncertain position.

RC Enerson - #23 Carlin Chevrolet... Maybe?
Here is a name that has been out of the spotlight for the last few years.

Enerson was a successful Indy Lights driver, having finished fourth in the championship in 2015 after he skipped Pro Mazda and entered the series straight from U.S. F2000. He started the 2016 season with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports before dropping out of the series to save his budget for future IndyCar opportunities and he made his debut later that year.

His IndyCar debut came at Mid-Ohio and he qualified 18th but worked his way into the top ten. What killed a promising was result was he ran out of fuel while coming in for a pit stop and he stalled the car, costing him a lap. His second start came at Watkins Glen and he qualified 11th but after an early incident he was up to sixth and running competitively. One caution came before he was able to make a pit stop and it dropped him down the order but he was able to run hard on the final stint and got back to finish ninth. He started 22nd for the Sonoma finale and finished 19th in that race.

Enerson tested for the team during the early portion of the offseason at Austin in autumn 2018 and he participated again for the team at the Laguna Seca test and the first official open test of the season a few weeks ago, which was also held at Austin. He recently participated in a test with the team at Sebring.

Numbers to Remember:
917: Days between Emerson's most recent IndyCar start at the 2016 season finale at Sonoma on September 18, 2016 and the Austin IndyCar race, the earliest he could appear in the 2019 season.

6.0833: Average finish in 24 Indy Lights starts.

12: Races uncounted for in Carlin's second entry.

Predictions/Goals:
Get enough funding to make one start.

There are some things I still don't understand about motorsports and one of those is Enerson has found the funding to make two tests at Austin, a test at Laguna Seca and he tested at Sebring last week but we are not sure he is going to run any races. I understand the bills have to be paid but how does he get the funding for tests but not races? What company would pay for a test where there is no one watching over a race or two?

Either way, it seems like he will be in the car but for how many races and where those races will be remains unseen.

It is kind of hard to fathom it will have been two and a half years since Enerson ran in IndyCar and he has been on the sidelines since the 2017 24 Hours of Daytona. He may have been helping out with the Lucas Oil Racing School but he has not been in a race seat and that is a disappointing fact based on the currently state of motorsports. Someone like Enerson should have been running somewhere if it wasn't IndyCar. Sports cars, touring cars, somewhere!

Enerson had a respectable test at Austin and he was faster than Max Chilton. Depending on how many races he gets, we will have to set standards accordingly. If he only gets two or three races then the expectations will not be as great as if he was running the other 12 races. I think the little thing to ask for is for Enerson to re-create his 2016 outings that got people excited about him potentially being a full-time driver. Of course, he should want to improve over the those 19th place results but the one thing we took away from those three races was Enerson was not that far off the rest of the field and could hold his own.

He will only be 22 years old when the season starts and there is still a lot of time for him to make that next step to full-time IndyCar driver. The least he can do is go out in the races he will be in and finish ahead of his teammate.

Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
This was not a great season and it can be summarized quite quickly.

Chilton did not finish on the lead lap in the first four races of the season and when he finally did manage to complete every lap in a race it was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, where he started and finished 16th. He qualified 20th in the Indianapolis 500 and finished two laps down in 22nd.

It appeared something was going right in the first Belle Isle race where he started tenth but he dropped like a rock from the start and finished 20th. In the second race, things were better and he finished 11th. Texas was not a bad race but he still finished a lap down in 12th and he finished 17th, 15th and 23rd over the next three races.

The big boost for Chilton was qualifying sixth at Mid-Ohio but he tossed it away on lap three when he spun Takuma Sato and was handed a penalty. So long for a good day and he finished two laps down in 24th, dead last. By process of avoiding being eliminated he picked up a 13th place finish at Pocono and followed it with 17th at Gateway. Portland was the only other race where it appeared things were going his way and he was in contention for a top ten finish but he was the only driver who was unable to make it to pit lane when Santino Ferrucci stopped on circuit. He stayed out and led 10 laps but that was only a consolation in what was an 18th place finish. He started and finished 21st at Sonoma.

Numbers to Remember:
17.9: Average finish in 2018, the worst average finish for a driver to start all the races in a season since Stefano Coletti's 18.5 in 2016.

5: Lead lap finishes in 2018.

2,243: Laps completed in 2018, eighth-most. His 19th place championship finish is the worst for a driver to finish a season in the top ten of most laps completed since 2001 when Oriol Servià completed the second-most laps but finished 19th in the championship, Shinji Nakano completed the eighth-most laps but was 26th in the championship and Michel Jourdain, Jr. completed the ninth-most laps and finished 20th in the championship.

Predictions/Goals:
Improve everywhere, get a top ten finish, be in the conversation at a few races.

Last year was rough and Chilton really has only one way to go.

For the first two years of his career Chilton was respectable. There were races he qualified at the front and a few other outings where he was competitive and in the top ten. We haven't seen Chilton really be in contention for a race victory or run with the big boys other than the Indianapolis 500 in 2017 but pit strategy went in his favor that day. We haven't seen a race where Chilton started at the front and stayed at the front. That likely will not change in 2019 with Carlin entering year two. Don't prepare to see Chilton having a race where he is in the top five with Will Power, Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi and Josef Newgarden.

He just needs a few good days but he really needs a top ten finish. Chilton could finish 12th or 11th in the first eight races but that isn't going to do it. He needs a day where he finished ninth or eighth. It doesn't have to be an impressive day. It just has to be a day where he qualifies 13th or 14th and through pit strategy or attrition gets into the top ten and he can build on his season from there.

Chilton isn't a terrible driver. He is far from a travesty. It was just a case where 2018 was a horrible season. He could mix it for a spot in the top fifteen in the championship but that seems like the best he can do. The grid is tough and Carlin still has a lot to prove. The one hope is Chilton's testing pace at Laguna Seca is a true indicator. He was fastest in what was an abbreviated session but some teams were using push-to-pass at that test and others were not. It could be a case Chilton's lap time was inflated but if he is a fraction better it will take him forward in 2019.

The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.


Wednesday, October 3, 2018

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Carlin's 2018 Season

The third IndyCar Wrap-Up brings us to the second new team of the 2018 season. Carlin had spent the prior three years contesting in Indy Lights. The team won a dozen races and the 2016 championship with Ed Jones in those three years, adding to an impressive résumé that includes championships in the British Formula Three championship, Formula Renault 3.5 Series, GP3 Series, F4 British Championship and the European Formula Three Championship with drivers such as Takuma Sato, Daniel Ricciardo, Jean-Éric Vergne, Felipe Nasr, Jack Harvey, Mikhail Aleshin, Robert Wickens and Lando Norris.

Charlie Kimball did a respectable job in year one with Carlin
Charlie Kimball
After seven seasons at Chip Ganassi Racing, the English-born Californian made a move to the team with which he finished second in the 2005 British Formula Three Series championship. While there were growing pains, Kimball fought through and picked up a few inspiring results for Carlin in the team's first year.

What objectively was his best race?
Toronto, in what was a shocking but encouraging fifth place finish. Kimball started 20th and a handful of cautions paired with well-timed pit stops helped Kimball get to the front of the field but he was competitive. He didn't settle into the position and hold up the rest of the field while finishing fifth. He pushed James Hinchcliffe for fourth and both Schmidt Peterson Motorsports cars were quick that weekend. On top of that, Kimball led one lap during a pit cycle.

What subjectively was his best race?
There were three other races to point out where Kimball went from the back of the grid to a top ten result. He went from 23rd to 10th at Long Beach, 21st to eighth in the second Belle Isle race and 25th to seventh at Portland.

The most impressive of the three in my mind is the Belle Isle race because of the lack of cautions. There was one caution for the first three laps and the remaining 67 laps were green. Both Long Beach and Portland races had a fair share of cautions that helped bunch up the field, leapfrogged drivers who made a pit stop before a caution came out and really mixed up the results.

In this Belle Isle race, Kimball got into the top ten off a mixture of strategy and speed. That only caution allowed Kimball to stop on lap two and go to a three-stop strategy without having to sacrifice time on track but when there are 67 consecutive green flag laps you don't get into the top ten just because of a well-timed pit stop under caution on lap two. His final stop was on lap 46 and he came out in 13th. He earned those last few positions because he could drive flat out down the stretch while the two-stoppers had to pedal their cars home. He still had to make the moves and Belle Isle is not known for being a pass-happy racetrack.

What objectively was his worst race?
Barber, where Kimball was the only car not to make it to Monday. He had a spun in the penultimate corner in the wet, collided with the barrier and that was it. His race was over after ten laps and in 23rd position.

What subjectively was his worst race?
This is tough because there wasn't a wasted top ten starting position and Kimball was up front from the start only to have a bad pit stop or a collision with another driver or off-track excursion cost him a respectable result.

I think it would be easier to point out Kimball's qualifying record as an area that needs to improve. He has never been a great qualifier but after covering a handful of races where Kimball went from outside the top twenty to a top ten result, Kimball falls in that class of drivers where you think the results could be so much better if he started further up the grid. This was Kimball's worst season in terms of averaging starting position at 19.5 and his best starting position was 12th at Texas. He never made it out of the first round of qualifying on road/street courses.

Charlie Kimball's 2018 Statistics
Championship Position: 17th (287 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 19.5
Average Finish: 15.0

It was a trying year for Max Chilton
Max Chilton
After two seasons with Chip Ganassi Racing, Chilton was a shoe-in to join Carlin once it joined the IndyCar grid. Chilton and Carlin's relationship has gone through British Formula Three, the GP2 Series and Indy Lights.

What objectively was his best race?
An 11th-place finish in the second Belle Isle race. Kind of like his teammate, Chilton stopped on lap two and was on the three-stop strategy. He was ahead of Kimball for majority of this race and the teammates ran with a position of each of for most of it. Chilton stopped the lap after Kimball on the final round of pit stops and he got out ahead of Kimball but Kimball was moving and passed Chilton on lap 54, as did Simon Pagenaud. Chilton would lose a few more spots to Marco Andretti and Zach Veach but got two spots back after Alexander Rossi's tire failure and Veach fell back afterward to let Rossi by and get him an additional point, elevating Chilton to 11th but an 11th that could have been a few spots better.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to draw a lot of positives from a season where there Chilton did not score a top ten finish but Portland is a race to highlight for Chilton. He started 15th but the first lap incident put him into the top ten and he spent the first stint running in the top ten and it seemed like things were lining up where he could end up with a top ten finish and then Chilton was the only driver caught out by the final caution. This cost him a top ten result. The team left him out and he led ten laps before having to make his final pit stop. He came out in 18th and he finished in 18th. To add insult to injury, Chilton had to come back down pit road the lap after and any hope of picking his way through slower cars with fresher tires and loads of fuel to burn was killed before he ever had a chance to shine.

What objectively was his worst race?
Mid-Ohio. He started sixth and ran into the back of Takuma Sato on lap two, spinning out the Japanese driver and leading to a drive-through penalty for Chilton on lap four. That dropped Chilton to 21st and on lap nine Chilton made his first pit stop and he was down to 24th. He was a lap down two laps later and Chilton never got off the bottom, lost another lap in a deflating 24th place result.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It has to be Mid-Ohio. Entering this race, Carlin had never made it out of the first round of qualifying on a road/street course and Chilton had the team's only top ten starting position through that point when he started tenth in the first Belle Isle race. Chilton had finally set the team up from a position of power. All he had to do was hold serve. If Chilton had run sixth all race or even if he had dropped to eighth that would have been fine but any shot at a top ten result was over before two laps could be completed.

Max Chilton's 2018 Statistics
Championship Position: 19th (223 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 10
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 17.375
Average Finish: 17.941

An Early Look Ahead
Kimball might not be back in 2019. That is a bit of a surprise but we know it isn't because of results. Kimball had more top ten finishes in 2018 than he did in 2017 with Ganassi. He finished 17th in the championship for the second consecutive year and he scored 40 fewer points than 2017. It is money. The funding continues to shrink and if Kimball doesn't have the funds then Carlin will find somebody else who can keep that car on the grid.

It would be a loss for the team if Kimball finds himself on the outside. The team needs someone to build around and Kimball gets results. They aren't always pretty but he finds a way into the top ten.

There were some swirling rumors about a possible third car for Carlin in 2019 and with Ed Jones out at Ganassi he was the first and really only name to come to mind of who would fill that third seat. Jones has a relationship with Carlin that extends back to the days of Formula Three in Europe. He came over with the team to the United States when Carlin entered Indy Lights and Jones won the first three Indy Lights races the team participated in and the following year Jones took the Indy Lights title for Carlin.

If Kimball is out and Jones has the money, it would make sense the seat would be his and he and Chilton would reunite. I don't know where Carlin will fall if Kimball is not there. I think it would be better for the team if it retained Kimball and Chilton. After a rough sophomore season at Chip Ganassi Racing I am not sure Jones is the guy that can pick the team up.

So if it is not Kimball, who could possibly enter and help carry the team forward? Kimball can't be the only guy who can carry Carlin to the front. It is difficult to find a veteran and Carlin possibly has to go the route of Schmidt Peterson Motorsports and hire a Robert Wickens-type driver to elevate the team up the grid. We see Ganassi doing something similar with its hire of Felix Rosenqvist.

Carlin has ties to plenty of drivers but the one name already in IndyCar to keep an eye on is Pietro Fittipaldi. Fittipaldi looked good at the end of the season despite being banged up and with Dale Coyne Racing set to have Santino Ferrucci in its second car full-time, Fittipaldi is a valuable free agent but will have suitors from all series around the world. He could be the one guy next year who could make a splash that many are forgetting about.

Carlin laid a foundation in 2018 and it has some work to do. The team probably knew it wasn't going to enter IndyCar and immediately take a place at the front of the grid but it made its first steps in 2018 and it knows what to repeat and what has to change for 2019. It got the milestones that you want to tick off the board. It got lead lap finishes; it got top ten finishes and even a top five. It showed it could have the pace to advance to the Fast Six. Now it is a time to tackle the other boxes on the board. Instead of one top five finish, it is time for multiple top five finishes. It is time for both cars to make it out of the first round of qualifying and finish in the top ten. It should be gunning for a podium finish and it should shoot to crack the top fifteen in the championship.

The sophomore year does not get any easier. All you have is the knowledge of what not to do but that doesn't necessarily mean you have the answers for success.


Friday, January 26, 2018

2018 IndyCar Team Preview: Carlin

The fourth IndyCar team preview and final team preview for the month of January brings us to our first new team! Carlin enters IndyCar with an internationally pedigree. The team has won 17 drivers' championships across six different championships. The team expanded its operation to the United States in 2015, entering Indy Lights with the introduction of the Dallara IL-15 chassis. Carlin has won 11 races over three seasons in Indy Lights. The team enters IndyCar with two familiar faces not only to the team but to the IndyCar grid.

2017 Carlin Review:
Wins: 0
Poles: 0
Final Championship Positions: None. It's a new team!

2018 Drivers:

Charlie Kimball - #23 Novo Nordisk Chevrolet
After having a career-year in 2016, the British-born Californian could not get out of his own way in 2017. Kimball was involved in first lap incidents in the first two races and an alternate fuel strategy at Barber saw Kimball fail to pick up a top ten finish in the first three races, a lengthy drought compared to his 2016 season. While he finished eighth at Phoenix, a pair of engine failures in each of the Indianapolis races had Kimball 20th in the championship. Another retirement at Belle Isle gave him three consecutive finishes outside the top twenty and that was followed by an eighth in race two. Kimball picked up his first career pole position but a mechanical issue after his first pit stop ended his race after 41 laps, 26 of which he led. He would pick up three top ten finishes in the final eight races but Kimball was more remembered for his overaggressive driving in the late stages of the season, especially at Gateway.

Numbers to Remember:
0: Top five finishes in 2017.

5: Kimball had at least one top five finish in the previous five seasons.

13.3: Average finish in 117 IndyCar starts, all with Chip Ganassi Racing.

22: Kimball has finished ahead of Max Chilton 22 times out of 33 starts.

Predictions/Goals:
If there is one hope for Kimball it is he can return to his reliable driving style in 2018 because Carlin needs to complete laps in year one. Kimball had completed more than 2,000 laps each season from 2013 to 2016 and he completed the most laps in each 2013 and 2017. Last year, he completed 1,943 laps, the 16th-most. If Kimball can plug away and finish races on the lead lap or at worst a lap down, not only will Carlin get to gather data and learn but the team could have a respectable finish in year one.

I don't think Kimball will try to over drive the car but I think his results will be hampered by the growing pains of a new team. Historically, Kimball has not been a strong qualifier and I would not be surprised if his average starting position is lower than his career average of 14.3. He will get a few top tens but be somewhere around where he was in 2017 and not because of erratic driving.

Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
This British-born Brit avoided the sophomore slump despite not picking up his first top ten finish until the Grand Prix of Indianapolis where Chilton finished seventh. In the Indianapolis 500 Chilton started 15th, seven positions better than his rookie year. In the race, an alternate strategy, a fortunate caution and a sturdy Honda engine had Chilton in position to win the race. He led 50 laps, the most in the race and he was in the top five coming down the stretch. However, the likes of Takuma Sato, Hélio Castroneves and Ed Jones separated from Chilton and he finished in a comfortable fourth-place. The early summer featured top ten finishes at Texas, Road America and Toronto for Chilton but his relationship with Chip Ganassi Racing soured and showed its ugly head at Pocono when a wastegate issue forced the team to park the car at the dismay of Chilton. He overcame that and an accident at Gateway to salvage 11th in the championship from the final two races.

Numbers to Remember:
9: Lead lap finishes in each of his first two IndyCar seasons.

14: Races running at the finish of in each of his first two IndyCar seasons.

14.1: Average finish in 33 IndyCar starts, all with Chip Ganassi Racing.

3.9: Improvement of average finish from 16.1 in 2016 to 12.2 in 2017.

Predictions/Goals:
This team is kind of being built around Chilton. If it weren't for Chilton I am not sure Carlin would be making this entrance into IndyCar or at least I am not sure Carlin would enter as a two-car team. Chilton improved in year two but he still has a ways to go to be a championship contender.

Like Kimball, Chilton has a history of bringing the car home. He did it in Formula One and he has done it in IndyCar. He has retired from only five races in his short IndyCar career and while four of those have been accidents, three of those have been out of his control as the first at Belle Isle in 2016 was due to suspension breaking on the rough track and in the next race he was an innocent bystander at chain reaction incident at the start. He was also one of the many drivers that had nowhere to go in the turn one lap one incident at Phoenix last year. As with Kimball, if Chilton completes laps the team will gather data and will have more to build on for 2019 and beyond. I think Chilton brings the car home but results will be down from 2017.

Looking at Carlin, this is the first new team in IndyCar since 2012 when Ed Carpenter Racing was established and Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing expanded to a full-time operation. This season is more about completing a checklist. Get a lead lap finish, get both cars to finish on the lead lap, get a top ten finish, get a car to the second round of qualifying and so on. Carlin is a respectable organization and it is asking a lot to expect the team to come out and win races in year one but I would not be surprised if come Road America people are saying, "How about Carlin?" I won't set the bar too high. I think if the team can get six to ten top ten finishes between the two cars and can get one car in the top 12 of the championship that would be viewed as a successful debut season.

The 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series season opener, the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg will take place on Sunday March 11th at 12:30 p.m. ET on ABC.