Loeb Wins Stage Five, New Quad Class Leader

Stage five of the Dakar Rally saw two classes remain the same with two classes featuring changes at the top of the classifications.

Sébastien Loeb won his third stage of the 2016 Dakar Rally. The Frenchman defeated fellow Peugeot driver Carlos Sainz by 22 seconds. Stage four winner Stéphane Peterhansel finished third on stage five, three minutes behind Loeb. Nasser Al-Attiyah finished fourth, seven seconds off the podium. Leeroy Poulter finished three minutes behind Al-Attiyah and rounded out the top five.

Mikko Hirvonen finished sixth, seven minutes and 42 seconds back of Loeb. Giniel de Villiers was seventh, eight minutes and 36 seconds back. Robby Gordon was eighth on the day, nine minutes and 20 seconds back. Bernhard ten Brinke finished fifteen seconds behind Gordon and Orlando Terranova rounded out the top ten on the stage. The Argentine was ten minutes and 15 seconds back of Loeb. Nani Roma was 18 seconds outside the top ten.

Loeb extended his overall lead in the car class to seven minutes and 48 seconds over Peterhansel. Sainz is 13 minutes and 26 seconds back in third. Al-Attiyah is 50 seconds behind Sainz and is the top non-Peugeot competitor. Poulter rounds out the top five, 18 minutes and 38 seconds back. De Villiers follows his fellow South African in the classifications with Hirvonen seventh. Ten Brinke, Vladimir Vasilyev and Yazeed Al-Rajhi round out the top ten. Vasilyev and Al-Rajhi finished 13th and 16th respectively on stage five.

Robby Gordon jumped up to 24th overall, an hour and 48 minutes back. Sheldon Creed is 28th; two hours and two minutes back after finishing 32nd on stage five.

Toby Price won his second stage of the 2016 Dakar Rally. The Australian defeated Antoine Meo by two minutes and 21 seconds. Štefan Svitko was third, 12 seconds behind Meo. Matthias Walkner finished seven seconds off the podium in fourth. Joan Barreda was fifth on the day, five minutes and 57 seconds back. Pablo Quintanilla finished sixth, six minutes and 51 seconds back of Price. Ivan Jakes was seventh; seven minutes and 19 seconds back with Hélder Rodrigues a second behind Jakes and Juan Pedrero finishing 17 seconds behind the Slovakian Jakes. Alain Duclos rounded out the top ten, 58 seconds behind Pedrero.

Paulo Gonçalves finished 12th on stage five but retained his class lead. The Portuguese rider is a minute and 45 seconds ahead of Svitko and Price is two seconds back of Svitko. Barreda is two minutes and 27 seconds behind Gonçalves. Walkner is fifth, two minutes and 57 seconds back. Argentine Kevin Benavides finished 16th on the stage but remains sixth overall, six minutes and 46 seconds back. Meo is three seconds behind Benavides. Ruben Faria finished 11th on the day but is still eighth and is trails his countryman by eight minutes and 13 seconds. Quintanilla is eight minutes and 30 seconds back in ninth and Duclos is tenth, 13 minutes and 39 seconds behind Gonçalves.

Ricky Brabec is 19th overall; 26 minutes and 42 seconds back after finishing 24th on stage five. Ian Blythe remains the second-best American, 42nd and an hour and 12 minutes back. Alexander Smith is 59th, two hours and 21 minutes back. Scott Bright and Carroll Gittere are 67th and 91st respectively, both over two and a half hours behind Gonçalves.

There is a new leader in the quad class after Alexis Hernandez won the stage and Ignacio Casale suffered engine problems. The Peruvian won the stage by a minute and 57 seconds over stage three winner Brian Baragawanath. Alejandro Patronelli finished third, twenty seconds behind Baragawanath. Russian Sergei Karyakin finished two minutes and 50 seconds back in fourth and the Dutchman Kees Koolen was fifth, three minutes and 20 seconds behind Hernandez.

Hernandez took over the overall lead with his victory. The Peruvian is 48 seconds ahead of Alejandro Patronelli. Karyakin is third, eight minutes and 35 seconds back. Marcos Patronelli moves up to fourth, ten minutes and 15 seconds behind Hernandez. He finished eighth on the stage. Jeremias González is fifth, 11 minutes and nine seconds back. González was seventh on stage five. Casale dropped to 14th, an hour and four seconds behind Hernandez.

Eduard Nikolaev picked up his first victory of this year's Dakar in the truck class. The Russian finished two minutes and 32 seconds ahead of Martin Kolomy. Federico Villagra finished third, four minutes and 32 seconds behind Nikolaev. Dutch driver Ton Van Genugten finished fourth, with the same time as Villagra. Rounding out the top five was Airat Mardeev, five minutes and 58 seconds behind Nikolaev.

Villagra took the truck class lead by five seconds over Pieter Versluis, who finished sixth on the day. Hans Stacey was seventh on stage five and is now third, 21 seconds behind Villagra. Gerard de Rooy is five minutes and 50 seconds back after finishing eighth on stage five. Mardeev is fifth overall, eight minutes and 49 seconds back.

Stage six will be a lap around Bolivia with the teams starting and ending in Uyuni.

2016 Dakar Rally Stage Four Review

Stage four of the 2016 Dakar Rally was completed today and four competitors picked up their first stage victories of this year's edition.

Stéphane Peterhansel won stage four, the third consecutive stage victory for Peugeot. The Frenchman won by eleven seconds over Carlos Sainz with Sébastien Loeb making it a Peugeot 1-2-3, 27 seconds back of Peterhansel. Defending Dakar winner Nasser Al-Attiyah finished four minutes and 57 seconds back in fourth. Cyril Despres rounded out the top five, five minutes and 44 seconds back.

Toyota drivers Yazeed Al-Rahji and Leeroy Poulter finished sixth and seventh. Al-Rahji was 15 seconds behind Despres and Poulter was 16 seconds behind his fellow Toyota driver. Mini drivers Nani Roma and Orlando Terranova finished eight and ninth. The Spaniard was seven minutes and ten seconds back of Peterhansel and Terranova was seven minutes and 43 seconds back of the stage winner. Robby Gordon rounded out the top ten. The American finished eight minutes and 43 seconds behind Peterhansel.

After four stages, Loeb continues to lead in the car class after the Frenchman won stages two and three. Peterhansel trails Loeb by four minutes and 48 seconds. Al-Attiyah is 11 minutes and nine seconds back in third. Poulter is 12 minutes and 31 seconds behind Loeb and Sainz rounds out the top five, 13 minutes and four seconds back. Giniel de Villiers and Mikko Hirvonen are sixth and seventh overall. They finished 11th and 12th respectively on stage four. Despres, prologue winner Bertnard ten Brinke and Russian Vladimir Vasilyev round out the top ten overall.

American Sheldon Creed is 24th, over an hour and five minutes back. Creed finished 17th on stage four. Gordon is 33rd, nearly an hour and 40 minutes behind Loeb. Gordon has accumulated an hour and four minutes in penalty time.

Paulo Gonçalves won stage four after Joan Barreda was handed a five-minute penalty. It was a Portuguese 1-2 with Ruben Faria finishing two minutes and 35 seconds behind Gonçalves. Argentine and stage three winner Kevin Benavides was third, two seconds behind Faria and Barreda finished fourth, three minutes and 11 seconds back after the penalty. Stage two winner Toby Price was third on the day, four minutes and a second behind Gonçalves.

French riders Antoine Meo and Michael Metge finished sixth and seventh. Meo was four minutes and 15 seconds back and Metge was a minute and five seconds behind Meo. Gerrard Farres Guell was eighth, three seconds behind Metge and American Ricky Brarbec was ninth, nine seconds behind Metge. Pablo Quintanilla rounded out the top ten, five minutes and 52 seconds back.

Gonçalves now leads overall, two minutes and 17 seconds ahead of Benavides and Barreda is three minutes and three seconds back. Štefan Svitko is fourth, five minutes and 22 seconds back. The Slovakian finished 12th on the day. Faria is two seconds behind Svitko and fifth overall. Austrian Matthias Walkner is sixth, seven minutes and eight seconds back and 48 seconds ahead of Price. Quintanilla, Meo and Alain Duclos round out the top ten.

Brabec is 17th, 18 minutes and 48 seconds back while Ian Blythe is 44th, over an hour back. Alexander Smith is 63rd, Scott Bright is 70th and Carroll Gittere is 92nd.

Marcos Patronelli won in the quad class by 16 seconds over Peruvian Alexis Hernandez and 25 seconds over prologue and stage two winner Ignacio Casale. Alejandro Patronelli finished three minutes and 49 seconds behind Marcos. Mohammed Abu-Issu rounded out the top five on the stage, four minutes and 12 seconds back.

Casale leads the quad class, 12 minutes and six seconds ahead of Brazilian debutant Marcelo Medeiros, who finished sixth on stage four. Alejandro Patronelli is third, 13 minutes and 52 seconds back and Hernandez is fourth, 15 minutes and 45 seconds back. Marcos Patronelli rounds out the top five overall, 17 minutes and 50 seconds back. Defending Dakar winner Rafeł Sonik is sixth overall, 19 minutes and 24 seconds behind Casale.

In the truck class, Gerard de Rooy took the stage four victory with fellow Dutchman Pieter Versluis finishing 37 seconds behind him in second. Stage two winner Hans Stacey made it a Dutch 1-2-3, finishing a minute and 18 seconds behind de Rooy. Argentine Federico Villagra finished fourth, a minute and 46 seconds back. Russian Eduard Nikolaev rounded out the top five, three minutes and 32 seconds behind de Rooy.

Versluis leads Stacey in the overall classification by 15 seconds. Villagra is third, two minutes and four seconds back. De Rooy trails Versluis by four minutes and 59 seconds in fourth. De Rooy has accumulated two minutes worth of penalties so far. Airat Mardeev rounds out the top five, nine minutes and 27 seconds back. Mardeev finished ninth on stage four, over five and a half minutes behind de Rooy.

Stage five of the Dakar Rally leaves Argentina. The teams will go from San Salvador de Jujuy to Uyuni, Bolivia.

Musings From the Weekend: A New Year But Same State

The first Monday of 2016 features the return of Musings From the Weekend. I hope you all had a wonderful holiday. Not much motorsports action but it appears rain will continue to follow the motorsports world as torrential rain fell upon the Dakar Rally. We are still a few weeks away from the first major events of 2016 but here is a run down of what got me thinking.

A New Year But Same State
I have actually been thinking about this since the middle of autumn but I am only now typing it out: IndyCar does not have forward thinking people in charge.

IndyCar's problem has been it's constantly in a stationary state and instead of being progressive and seeking out how to do things differently or get more manufactures involved or get more teams involved, IndyCar draws a line in the sand and lives by it. IndyCar become rigid and while IndyCar stick to their guns, IndyCar limps on into the future instead of opening up it mind and eyes.

Jay Frye is the new man at the helm of IndyCar and to be fair he has been on the job for all of five minutes. He wasn't and no one in the world was going to walk right in and perform miracle to take the series to the pinnacle of the motorsports world in terms of race attendance and television ratings. But I just wonder, when will someone at IndyCar realize it's time to try something new and actually do it?

On Trackside back in August (go to the 1:26:45 mark) when talking about IndyCar returning to Road America and the possibility of lengthy caution periods because of the size of the track, Kevin Lee wondered about doing something different so caution periods wouldn't last 20 minutes. The answer is virtual safety car, which has been successful in sports cars and Formula One as the field slows down but a safety car is not released and the corner workers are able to take care of whatever it is (stranded car, piece of debris, etc.) and races get back underway after one lap of virtual safety car instead of five laps behind an actual safety car.

It sounds great. IndyCar should adopt it immediately. However, are the people in charge capable of making such a change? I don't think so. I don't think Brian Barnhart is smart enough to make that evolution and therein lies the problem. If he can't make a simple change to something that has been proven to be an evolutionary step for safety car/full-course caution periods then why have him in charge? Why not get someone who will be on the forefront of changes in motorsports?

IndyCar cannot become a series viewed as behind with the times although I fear it is already viewed that way by some. However, a few simple changes can change how the entire series is perceived.

Winners From the Weekend
At the Dakar Rally prologue, Bernhard ten Brinke won in the car class, Joan Barreda won in the bike class and Ignacio Casale won in the quad class. The first stage of the Dakar Rally, which was scheduled for Sunday, was cancelled due to heavy rain.

Coming Up This Weekend
More from the Dakar Rally.
AMA Supercross opens its season in Anaheim.

2016 Dakar Rally Preview

Sunday marks the start of the 37th Dakar Rally. For the eighth consecutive year, the race will take place in South America and for the second consecutive year the race will start in Buenos Aires. Eleven of the thirteen stages will start in Argentina with two starting in Bolivia. A rest day is scheduled for January 10th in Salta, Argentina. This year's Dakar Rally features star-studded Peugeot line-up and the debuts for two of the best rally drivers of this 21st century and a Le Mans winner.

Mini has won the last four Dakars in the car class and Qatari Nasser Al-Attiyah took his second Dakar victory last year. The 2014 car class winner Nani Roma returns to drive for Mini. Last year, Roma won a stage but failed to finish. Argentine Orlando Terranova is another Mini driver and he won four stages last year but finished 18th overall. A South American driver has never won the Dakar Rally in the car class. Mikko Hirvonen makes his Dakar debut driving for Mini. Other Mini drivers to watch for are Erik Van Loon, Boris Garafulic and Adam Malysz.

Peugeot's line-up is headlined by 11-time Dakar winner (five in cars) Stéphane Peterhansel and 2010 Dakar winner Carlos Sainz. Sébastien Loeb makes his Dakar debut for the French manufacture. The nine-time World Rally Championship Drivers' champion could become the fourth driver to win both the WRC title and a Dakar Rally joining Ari Vatanen, Juha Kankkunen and Sainz. Porsche factory driver Romain Dumas will also make his Dakar debut with Peugeot. Five-time Dakar bike-class winner Cyril Despres returns with Peugeot. He finished 34th last year in his car-class debut. Peugeot's last victory was in 1990 with Vatanen.

South Africa Giniel de Villiers leads the Toyota charge. The 2009 Dakar winner finished second last year to Al-Attiyah and has finished on the podium in five of the seven editions to take place on the South American continent. Russian Vladimir Vasilyev won a stage last year and finished fifth driving for Toyota and he returns this year. Bernhard ten Brinke returns with Toyota. The Dutchman finished seventh last year. Saudi driver Yazeed Al-Rajhi returns with Toyota for his sophomore Dakar Rally. He won a stage last year but failed to finish. Czech driver and full-time WRC competitor Martin Prokop will make his Dakar debut driving for Toyota.

Robby Gordon returns with his Gordini. An American has never won the Dakar Rally. Gordon won a stage last year, his eighth career stage victory, but finished 15th. His best finish was a third in 2009. Christian Lavieille and Emiliano Spataro will be driving Renaults. Carlos Sousa and Guilherme Spinelli lead the Mitsubishi line-up. Guarlain Chicherit will drive a Buggy.

Marc Coma will not return to defend his Dakar victory in the bike class. The Spaniard won his fifth Dakar last year and had won the previous two editions. KTM has won every Dakar Rally since 2001. Leading the KTM charge will be the Australian Toby Price. Price finished third last year and won a stage on debut. Štefan Svitko finished fifth last year and the Slovakian returns with KTM. Besides Price and Svitko, KTM has hired four other top ten finishers from last year's race including David Casteu, Olivier Pain, Ivan Jakeš and Laia Sanz. Austrian Matthias Walkner also returns to ride for his native manufacture and Jordi Viladoms returns with KTM.

Honda's Paulo Gonçalves leads the charge to end KTM's reign. The Portuguese rider finished second last year and won a stage. Joan Barreda won three stages last year and led until a disastrous stage eight handed Coma the class lead. Barreda has won 13 stages in the last four Dakars. American Ricky Brabec makes his Dakar debut riding for Honda. The last Dakar victory for Honda came in 1989 when France's Gilles Lalay was victorious.

Husqvarna will be led by last year's fourth place finisher Pablo Quintanella and Ruben Faria. The Swedish manufacture has never won a Dakar Rally.

Yamaha has not won since 1998 and Portuguese rider Hélder Rodrigues and Dutchman Frans Verhoeven.

Besides Brabec, there are four other Americans competing in the bike class. Scott Bright and Ian Blythe will be competing on KTMs. Alexander Smith and Carroll Gittere will ride Husqvarnas. All four are making Dakar debuts.

In the quad class, Polish rider Rafeł Sonik will not return to defend his title, leaving Chilean Ignacio Casale as the top Yamaha rider. Yamaha has won in the quad class in all seven Dakars that has featured the class. Casale looks to join Marcos and Alejandro Pastronelli as winner of multiple Dakars in the quad class. Both Pastronellis are looking for their third Dakar victory this year. Argentine Jeremias Gonzalez Ferioli looks for his first Dakar victory as does Paraguayan Nelson Sanabria. Both will ride Yamahas.

Looking to dethrone Yamaha of their reign in the quad class are Honda riders Mohammed Abu-Issu of Qatar and Walter Nosiglia of Bolivia. Other Honda riders to watch for are Argentine Lucas Bonetto and Chilean Sebastian Palma.

Can-Am is the other manufacture competing in the quad class. Italian Franco Picco is a Can-Am rider to watch for. He finished second in the bike class in 1988 and 1989.

In the truck class, Russian Ayrat Mardeev is the defending winner and he looks to become the first driver to win consecutive years in the truck class since Vladimir Chagin in 2010-11. Kamaz looks for their fourth consecutive Dakar victory. Eduard Nikolaev and Andrey Karginov each look for their second Dakar victories. Dmitry Sotnikov looks for his first Dakar victory and finished in the top five the last two years.

Iveco drivers Gérard de Rooy and Aleš Loprais look to end Kamaz's streak. The Dutch manufacture won the 2012 edition with de Rooy. Loprais is the nephew of six-time Dakar winner Karel Loprais. Winner of the 2007 Dakar Rally, Han Stacey will drive a MAN. Martin Kolomy is the lead Tatra driver. Belorussian Siarhei Viazovich leads the MAZ team. Jan Lammers will driver a Ginaf.

Stage one will go from Buenos Aires to Villa Carlos Paz.

2016 IndyCar Predictions

On the penultimate day of 2015, we have the final set of predictions for 2016 and those predictions focus on the Verizon IndyCar Series. While it has been 123 days since the 2015 season came to a close in Sonoma and Scott Dixon came from behind to win the race and the championship, the 2016 season will be here soon enough. Only 74 days to go until the green flag in St. Petersburg. With that said, here are the predictions.

1. Hélio Castroneves Wins the 100th Indianapolis 500
The stars are aligning. The 100th Indianapolis 500 is upon us. Hélio Castroneves has been stuck on three Indianapolis 500 victories since 2009. It is the silver anniversary of Rick Mears winning his fourth in 1991. Penske is sitting on 16 victories. Chevrolet is on nine and is one behind Honda and Cosworth for third all-time among engine manufactures. Castroneves will turn 41 years old just over two and a half weeks prior to the race. His career is on the back the nine and this could be the last great opportunity for him to get it. It just feels like if it is going to happen, it would happen in the 100th running.

Fun fact: Of the previous nine round number Indianapolis 500s, eight have been won by Americans (Jimmy Murphy, Fred Frame, George Robson, Pat Flaherty, Johnny Rutherford, Bobby Rahal, Buddy Lazier, Sam Hornish, Jr.). The 50th Indianapolis 500 was won by Graham Hill.

2. Honda Wins At Least Two Pole Positions
Honda has not won a pole position since Houston 1 in 2014. Chevrolet has won 22 pole positions and three others were set by points since then. That streak is bound to end. If Sebastián Saavedra can win a pole in the wet at Indianapolis, then why couldn't Ryan Hunter-Reay or James Hinchcliffe or Takuma Sato do the same or why couldn't one of those three have a red flag fall their way in the Fast Six or why couldn't Honda make up ground this offseason and Marco Andretti win pole position for the Indianapolis 500? It's bound to end. It's going to end.

3. James Hinchcliffe Finishes in the Top Ten in the Championship
The Canadian's 2015 campaign ended prematurely and when Hinchcliffe was sidelined he was tied for seventh in the championship with a victory, two top tens and a fastest lap from five races. I don't know if Hinchcliffe would have finished in the top ten had he completed the entire 2015 season but after seeing what Ryan Briscoe and Conor Daly did in the #5 Honda in his place, I think he would have been in the conversation. Hinchcliffe's career has been mired by inconsistent results. In his first year with Andretti Autosport, he started great with seven top tens in the first eight races. In the final seven races, he had one top ten. In 2013, he won the season opener at St. Petersburg but had a pair of 26th place finishes before winning at São Paulo only to finish 21st at Indianapolis in the next race. He won Iowa later that season and in the next race at Pocono retired after spinning in the first corner on the first lap. Even his abbreviated 2015 season was inconsistent: 16th, first, 12th, seven, 12th.

I think Hinchcliffe will hone in his consistency and I think Schmidt Peterson Motorsports will have a better 2016 season with Mikhail Aleshin returning in place of James Jakes. If Honda can solve the aero kit issues, I think SPM could win a race or two and potentially both drivers could be vying for top ten finishes in the championship.

4. There Will Be Four Indianapolis 500 Rookies
We already know there will be two attempting to qualify for the 100th Indianapolis 500. Spencer Pigot has a three race deal with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing (St. Petersburg and both Indianapolis races). Matthew Brabham has a deal for both Indianapolis for PIRTEK Team Murray in partnership with KVSH Racing. We known Stefan Wilson is working on a deal. We know Jack Harvey is trying to graduate to IndyCar. Max Chilton is exploring options in IndyCar. Who knows who else is working on deals for IndyCar? Could Alexander Rossi end up in IndyCar if he is passed over by Manor? What other drivers that are stuck in the European pipeline will jump across the pond?  I think any fewer than four rookies will be a surprise.

5. Conor Daly Finishes Worse Than 14th in the Championship
Conor Daly has his full-time seat. Now the pressure is on. For all the highs he had in the limited opportunities he had in 2015 (11th-hour substitute performance at Long Beach, sixth at Belle Isle), he had plenty of blunders (spinning from the lead of PC class on the final lap at Road America, totaling a car in Petit Le Mans practice) leaving you to question Daly's ability. Daly has been around for a while and he has had success in GP3 and scored on his debut GP2 weekend but now he is in a big time series I think people will get a heavy dose of reality when they see Daly not competing at the front from the crack of the bat. I think Daly will have a few good runs but historically, IndyCar rookies do not finish well in the championship standings. Since reunification, the average championship finish for rookie of the years is 12.375 but if you take out Simon Pagenaud, who won rookie of the year in 2012 but had run a full season of Champ Car in 2007 and replaced him with the next best rookie from that season (Josef Newgarden), the average finish drops to 14.625. I think if Daly doesn't have an experience teammate or a teammate of equal caliber, he will struggle. Knowing Dale Coyne Racing, the likelihood of that happening is slim to none.

6. Three Drivers That Didn't Win in 2015 Win in 2016
Hélio Castroneves, Tony Kanaan, Marco Andretti, Simon Pagenaud, Charlie Kimball and Ed Carpenter all went winless in 2015. You almost feel like you can pencil one victory in for each Castroneves and Pagenaud. Kanaan, Andretti and Carpenter are all threats on ovals. Kimball had a pretty good 2015 season with a third in the Indianapolis 500 and Sonoma. They all won't be shutout again. Then you have the potential of a rookie winner, although rookie winners have been few and far in-between since reunification. The only rookie (not including those who were classified as rookies in 2008 but had run full seasons of Champ Car) to win since reunification is Carlos Huertas.

7. At Least Three Races Will Be in the News For Not Returning in 2017
The favorite is Pocono followed by Phoenix and Boston. And just to raise IndyCar fan's blood pressure, let's just throw in Iowa, Texas, Road America, Toronto and St. Petersburg for shits and giggles.

8. There Will Be At Least Three Moments Where Race Control Leaves Us Scratching Our Heads
Brian Barnhart is in charge. Three is lowballing it.

9. There Will Be a Delayed Session at Boston
There will be something that goes wrong. Something always goes wrong. A manhole cover will come loose. The surface will be two bumpy. There will be railroad tracks. A protest will breakout and invade the circuit. A hurricane will hit Boston that weekend. You name it; it is bound to happen at the inaugural race in Boston.

10. Scott Dixon Breaks the Record for Most Consecutive Seasons With a Victory Before Texas
The New Zealander is on the verge of making history in 2016. Bobby Unser, Emerson Fittipaldi, Hélio Castroneves and Dixon have each won a race in 11 consecutive seasons. Dixon is attempting to become the first driver to win a race in a dozen consecutive seasons. It's inevitable. It's not a matter of if. It's a matter of when. Predicting Dixon will win the first half of the 2016 season doesn't sound like a stretch of a prediction but takes this into consideration: Of his 38 victories, only 14 have come with in the first eight races of a season and in the DW12-era only twice has he won in the first eight races of a season. He struggles at St. Petersburg. He doesn't have much a history with Phoenix and what history he does have isn't great. He just won Long Beach. He lives on the podium at Barber. He is always a favorite at Indianapolis and he has run well at Belle Isle. I bet he gets off the schneid at Barber.

11. At Least Two 2015 Championship Contenders at Sonoma Will Finish Outside the Top Eight
IndyCar is really competitive. Simon Pagenaud went from championship contender in 2014 to outside the top ten in 2015. If it wasn't for two victories and a second in the final four races of 2015 Ryan Hunter-Reay very well could have finished outside the top ten in the championship. Of the half-dozen drivers that were championship eligible at Sonoma in 2015, a third struggling to finish in the top ten in 2016 would not be surprising. The obvious names I am thinking of are Graham Rahal and Josef Newgarden because 2015 was an anomaly for both of them. Rahal finally had a great season but can he duplicate that? The same question can be asked of Newgarden.

While I think Castroneves will win at Indianapolis, that doesn't mean he will be a championship contender. The Brazilian has consistently finished in the top ten in the DW12-era but he failed to win in 2015 and he could win Indianapolis and then have a slew of poor results drop him in the championship. I think Juan Pablo Montoya could regress. He isn't getting any younger and if Pagenaud rebounds in 2016, it will have to come at the expense of one of the other Penske drivers. They aren't putting all four in the top six of the championship. The only 2015 championship contenders that I feel comfortable will be there again in 2016 are Dixon and Will Power. Dixon has finished in the top four of the championship every season since 2006. Power has finished in the top four since returning to full-time competition in 2010.

12. There Will Be No Serious Injuries or Fatalities
IndyCar needs this to happen. Last year, there was Justin Wilson's death and James Hinchcliffe's severe injury. The year before that Mikhail Aleshin was seriously injured in practice at Fontana. In 2013, Dario Franchitti has his career ended at Houston and Justin Wilson's season ended with a trip to hospital after suffering pelvic injury in an accident in the Fontana finale. IndyCar needs to get through a season without someone being laid up in a hospital for weeks or worse due to something that happened in the car. A broken wrist here and there is fine. We can't expect drivers not to be banged up a little bit. It's unrealistic. All sports have injuries and motorsports is no different. It's the serious and devastating ones that IndyCar can do without for few seasons.

Don't forget to check out the other four sets of predictions: NASCAR, Et Cetera, Sports Cars, Formula One.

2016 Formula One Predictions

Exactly one month ago the 2015 Formula One season wrapped up from Abu Dhabi and we are just under three months until the 2016 season opener from Melbourne, Australia. Lewis Hamilton heads to 2016 gunning for his third consecutive title and fourth overall. Both Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel are within shouting distance of Alain Prost for second all-time in grand prix victories. Meanwhile, Nico Rosberg hopes to dethrone his teammate and remain the top German and the rest of the grid just hope to be remotely competitive.

1. There Will Be At Least Four Race Winners and One Will Be a First Time Winner
After back-to-back seasons that saw only three winners from two teams, I think we will see a little more diversity on the top step of the podium in 2016. The Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will still be there. Sebastian Vettel will give those two more of a run for their money. I think Red Bull could bounce back. Williams could have one fall into their laps. Who knows? Maybe Max Verstappen wins one in the rain.

2. Nico Rosberg Will Not Lead Germans in Victories
And you know what that means: Sebastian Vettel will win more races than Rosberg. I think Vettel and Ferrari made big leaps in 2015 and while he only won three races, he is on the coattails of Mercedes. I think 2016 will be the season remembered for the Lewis Hamilton vs. Sebastian Vettel battle we have all been waiting for. They have been racing in the same series since the middle of 2007 but never have been on top at the same time. When Hamilton has won his championship, Vettel has been on a playing field below him. When Vettel dominated, Hamilton wasn't at his best. The title might not come down to the final race but the first 18 rounds should be great.

3. There Will Be At Least One Incident Where a Mercedes Retires Because of Contact With Another Mercedes
I think tension will be at an all-time high in the Mercedes camp especially if Vettel provides a greater challenge. I think at one race you could see Hamilton feeling the pressure of Vettel and Ferrari breathing down his neck and Rosberg feeling the pressure of being once again running second fiddle to Hamilton while also have Vettel ahead of him and those two have a moment where each is trying to make up ground and end up ruining each other's race.

4. Alain Prost Will Still Have A Share Of Second All-Time In Victories After the 2016 Season
As of today, the record book for Grand Prix victories looks like this:

Michael Schumacher- 91
Alain Prost- 51
Lewis Hamilton- 43
Sebastian Vettel- 42

I could see Hamilton and Vettel each winning about seven races. I don't think we will see a double-digit race winner next season and I don't think Hamilton will win nine. I think Prost will be fine for a season. His slip in the record books will come in 2017.

5. Haas F1 Scores At Least One Points Before Hungary
Maybe I am being too optimistic but I think Haas F1's entrance into Formula One will be a thousand times better than the entrances of Virgin Racing (now Manor), Lotus Racing (then-Caterham) and HRT in 2010. I think the team will struggle on reliability at the start of the season but I think they will have more pace than expected. I think Romain Grosjean could steal a point at Monaco or Montreal at the earliest.

6. Manor Scores At Least Two Points
Especially if they hire Pascal Wehrlein (although there could be an issue with FIA Super License points) and Alexander Rossi (although I don't see this happening because Rossi is American and Americans don't get breaks in Formula One and someone will have more money than him and get the seat). I think Manor could finish ahead of Haas F1 in the Constructors' Championship but they have lost John Booth and Graeme Lowdon and that could be a massive set back just when it looked like the team could take a step in the right direction.

7. McLaren Will Be At Least the Second-Best British Constructor
McLaren has been crap for the last two seasons and it couldn't get much worse than 2015. We aren't sure if Fernando Alonso will be back but all signs point to him returning. Jenson Button is back for one more rodeo. Honda will have an offseason to pick up on their power deficiency to the rest of the field. They finished ahead of Manor this year and that shouldn't be an issue next year. Lotus' future is still uncertain as the sale to Renault is still being finalized. I think they can finish ahead of Lotus, which has no real leader (Pastor Maldonado is the senior driver). I think they can definitely jump Sauber and I think Toro Rosso could fall down to earth.

8. A Driver That Has Never Had a 100-Plus Point Season Scores 100 Points or More
The century-mark use to be extremely difficult to obtain and was normally reserved for men whose name ended in "macher" but since the points system changed in 2010, 100 points isn't even enough to crack the top five in the championship. Sixteen drivers have cracked 100 points on 58 occasions, 43 of those since 2010. I think Daniil Kvyat could crack 100 points (he fell five short in 2015) and perhaps one of the Force India drivers could continue on the rise of that team and score 100 points. Sergio Pérez scored 78 points last year and Nico Hülkenberg scored 58 points. They both would have to significantly improve but maybe Force India could be the surprise of 2016.

9. There Will Be At Least Two Driver Changes During The Season
I don't know where they will be but Manor will likely feature one and the other could come at McLaren if the team continues to be mired at the back of the field and Alonso and/or Button get sick of it, opening the door for the long awaited debut of Stoffel Vandoorne.

10. At Least One Driver Who Didn't Score in 2015 Scores At Least 21 Points
This is a stretch prediction. Drivers who didn't score in 2015 and have seats or are in running for seats in 2016 are Roberto Merhi, Alexander Rossi, Will Stevens, Kevin Magnussen, Esteban Gutiérrez, Jolyon Palmer, Pascal Wehrlein and Stoffel Vandoorne. I think the Merhi-era is over in Formula One. I think Rossi would be lucky to be back in 2016. I don't see Stevens doing it even if he does return. Magnussen's Formula One career is over at the ripe-old age of 23 years old. I think it would be a stretch for Gutiérrez to do it and I don't see Vandoorne competing in Formula One next year. That leaves us Palmer and Wehrlein. Last year, Lotus drivers Grosjean and Maldonado scored 51 points and 27 points respectively. It's not impossible but as I said above, with the ownership of that team uncertain, that could play heavily into the competitiveness of Lotus. Twenty-one points for Manor with Wehrlein would be truly remarkable but I think it would be a stretch for that pairing.

11. A Track On the 2016 Schedule Announces It Won't Be On the 2017 Schedule
The early favorite is Austin followed by Hockenheimring, Monza and Baku in that order... at least that is the way I have it in my book.

12. Formula One is Agreed to be Sold Before End of 2016
It has been rumored through out all of 2015. I am not sure if it is the American-Qatari group that features Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross or some other group but I think CVC Capital Partners will sell their controlling stakes in the series.

Yesterday, the 2016 sports car predictions were posted and don't forget to check out predictions for both NASCAR and many other motorsports series from around the world.

2016 Sports Car Predictions

Christmas is in the rearview mirror and 2016 is days away and the sports car season is not that far behind and it kicks off with consecutive 24-hour races; one in Dubai and one in Daytona. Six series will be featured and each will have two predictions. From LMP1 to LMP3, GTE to GT3, here are go.

1. FIA WEC: All Three LMP1 Manufactures Score Over 200 Points
If you thought the 2015 championship battle was great, I think the 2016 could be a little bit better. Toyota was hungover in 2015 but has sobered up for 2016 and I think the Japanese manufacture will give Porsche and Audi a tougher fight. All three manufactures are so balanced that it's tough to pick a favorite to just run away with it. Porsche just won the title but we just saw Toyota struggled mightily after winning the title and Audi is Audi and isn't going anywhere. It is a stretch to say that next November that each manufacture will have one car eligible for the title at the start of the Bahrain finale but I wouldn't be surprised if all three won in 2016 and if there were more races with all three manufactures being represented on the podium.

2. Ferrari Locks Up A GTE Title Before Bahrain
With Proton Competition becoming Porsche's GTE-Pro team, I think AF Corse Ferrari is the favorites for the 2016 World Endurance Cup for GT Manufactures. Last year, Porsche defeated Ferrari by four points for the manufactures' title but Richard Leitz had greater control over the World Endurance Cup for GT Drivers, dethroning Gianmaria Bruni and Toni Vilander by 13.5 points. However, as respectable as Proton Competition is as a team and while Aston Martin will still be there and Ford enters as a fourth manufacture, Ferrari has the goods to dominate in 2016. While the 458 Italia has been put out to pasture and the 488 Italia is the new kid on the block, AF Corse dominated the Intercontinental Le Mans Cup in the 458's debut season in 2011. Porsche is going through changes, Aston Martin's driver lineup isn't set and Ford will struggle for part of the season. This is Ferrari's title to lose.

3. IMSA: A Race Victory Falls Into Ligier's Lap
Last year I said LMP2 cars wouldn't win at all in 2015 and I was right. My tune is changing for 2016. Chip Ganassi Racing will be gone from the Prototype ranks after the 24 Hours of Daytona. Mazda will be there but how competitive will they actually be for race victories? The future of the DeltaWing is unknown. Action Express Racing kept the João Barbosa/Christian Fittipaldi band together and Dane Cameron/Eric Curran is a respectable driver line-up. The Taylor Brothers are still there and Spirit of Daytona Racing returns but with a new driver line-up of Marc Goossens and Ryan Dalziel (and Ryan Hunter-Reay for the three longest races and Long Beach). With the full-time grid likely set at only seven entries, a blind squirrel will find a nut. Michael Shank Racing nearly won at Belle Isle and Mosport last year and I don't see why they couldn't steal a victory in 2016. At the same time, I can see Extreme Speed Motorsports taking one of the first two rounds... actually, scratch that. I can see ESM taking Sebring. Ligier will defeat the Corvette DP at least once.

4. BMW Wins At Least Seven Race Between the Two GT Classes
Porsche is coming off the title. Corvette won the big races but stumbled once again after Le Mans. Ford is getting all the attention. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing BMW kept the driver line-ups together (John Edwards/Lucas Luhr and Bill Auberlen/Dirk Werner) and each won a race in 2015 with the latter taking two victories. Heck, Auberlen and Werner jumped the Daytona-Sebring sweeping duo of Antonio García and Jan Magnussen for second in the championship to Patrick Pilet. However, I expect BMW to be very competitive in GT Daytona as the class has adopted GT3 specifications. Turner Motorsports has put together two exceptional driver combinations in Bret Curtis/Jens Klingmann and Michael Marsal/Markus Palttala. GTD will be fun to watch in 2016 as there has been a proliferation in Lamborghini entries, new Audi entries on the grid, plenty of Porsches and the threatening Vipers.

5. Pirelli World Challenge: Patrick Long Finishes in the Top Two of the Championship
The prodigal son is coming home (to the United States that is). Patrick Long replaces Ryan Dalziel at EFFORT Racing Porsche and his name goes to the top of the list of championship contenders behind only Johnny O'Connell. Long is the last driver to win the PWC title since O'Connell and Cadillac have gone on their run of domination. He won of four of twelve races in 2011 when he last competed full-time in PWC. He won the last PWC race he competed in (a one-off at Miller Motorsports Park in 2012). You could argue Dalziel was the best driver in PWC last season. He only won two races but had ten podiums while O'Connell only scored five and Olivier Beretta had seven. Dalziel finished third in the championship despite missing three races due to FIA WEC duties. When Renger van der Zande ran the Sonoma round as a substitute, the Dutchman finished second and first. EFFORT Racing has the goods and they have a driver that can deliver. If Long doesn't win the title, he will at least make it close.

6. Four Different Manufactures Are Represented in the Top Five of GTS
Last year, three manufactures were represented in the top five with Blackdog Speed Shop Chevrolet's Michael Cooper taking the team's third consecutive title over Ford's Andrew Aquilante and Porsche's Jack Baldwin. TRG-Aston Martin's Kris Wilson finished sixth in the championship but Wilson won five races, the most victories in GTS and missed six races. Baldwin is switching over to Maserati for 2016. You expect someone will run the new Porsche Cayman GT4. Unfortunately, Kia is leaving the series. Blackdog Speed Shop appears not to be going anywhere, though. TRG and Aston Martin are committed to PWC. There will be a drove of Ford Mustangs out there. I don't see one or two manufactures dominating.

7. Blancpain GT: Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Wins a Specific Championship
Technically this team won titles in 2015. They took the Blancpain GT Series Teams' Championship and Robin Frijns won the Driver's Championship but they should have won a specific title. If it weren't for Laurens Vanthoor breaking his leg at Misano, he and Frijns would have taking the Blancpain Sprint Series title over Bentley's Vincent Abril and Maximilian Buhk. The team also had a shot at the Blancpain Endurance Series title with Stéphane Ortelli (who is leaving the team) and Frank Stippler. Winning the titles for the combination of the two series is nice but you want to take the other pieces of silverware as well. I think they will do that in 2016.

8. The Average Grid Size for Blancpain Sprint Series Will Be Above 20 Entries
I think we are reaching a critical point in the global landscape of GT3 racing. There is nothing wrong with Pirelli World Challenge, European Le Mans Series and Asian Le Mans Series each running GT3-spec cars. But when you get overlap (PWC vs. IMSA, ELMS vs. Blancpain GT vs. British GT vs. ADAC GT Masters, ALMS vs. GT Asia) then problems start to occur. Last year, the BSS grid featured around 18 cars at each round while the BES grids were overflowing with over fifty-plus cars across the three different class at each round. In Europe alone, there are plenty of GT3 sprint series. Along with BSS, there is British GT, ADAC GT Masters and starting in 2016 there will be GT3 Le Mans Cup, a support series to ELMS. However, while I fear GT3 being spread too thin with all these series, I think BSS and Stéphane Ratel has a lot of pull over the GT3 landscape and I think we will larger grids come next year.

9. European Le Mans Series: Jota Sport Scores Fewer Podiums Than in 2015
The team has lost the championship the last two seasons in heartbreaking fashion. Both years Jota Sport has entered as the championship lead and left without a trophy. Jota Sport is a terrific team and deserves a title but with plans to expand to FIA WEC competition in 2016 I think they could be stretching their resources and it could hurt their ELMS effort. They finished on the podium at the first four ELMS round. I still think Jota Sport is an ELMS championship contenders and they don't need four podiums to be champion. Greaves Motorsport won the title and had only three podiums. Despite there being an extra ELMS round in 2016, expecting a team to finish on the podium two-thirds of the time is asking a lot.

10. The Average LMP3 Grid Exceeds Eight Entries
The GTC class (GT3-specs) is gone but I think LMP3 entries will make up for that loss. There were five entries at three of five rounds last year. United Autosport will run a car and Alex Brundle will be one of their drivers. CBP Sport are committed to running at least one car in 2016. Ultimate Racing will enter a Ligier. Ave-Riley is developing an LMP3 chassis. LMP3 will be much more competitive in 2016 and while it's sad to see some GT3 cars go away, I think the fight in LMP3 will make up for it.

11. Asian Le Mans Series: Ferrari Will Not Be Shut Out From Another GT Podium
There are two rounds left in the ALMS season. At Sepang I, the Clearwater Racing McLaren, Team AAI BMW and Team AAI Mercedes made up the GT class podium. Neither the Spirit of Race Ferrari, which finished second at the season opener at Fuji or the Sepang I pole position winning Nexus Infinity Ferrari finishing on the podium. I don't see Ferrari being shut out at Buriram on January 10th or when the series returns to Sepang on January 24th.

12. There Will be At Least One Race Where the LMP3 Winner Finishes Ahead of the GT Winner
It has yet to happen. At Fuji, the GT winning (GT3-specs) Clearwater Racing McLaren and the LMP3 winning DC Racing Ligier finished on the same lap with the McLaren finishing just under 20 seconds ahead. At Sepang I, both LMP3 entries had mechanical issues and the DC Racing Ligier took another victory in class, this time 14 laps behind the Clearwater Racing McLaren. In ELMS, the LMP3 winning car finished ahead of the GTC (GT3-specs) winning only at the final round at Estoril but the LMP3 winner did finish on the same lap in two of the other four rounds. It might be a stretch but I think it will happen.

Don't forget to check out the NASCAR and Et Cetera predictions, which were posted prior to Christmas.