2025 IndyCar Predictions

We have made it to the final day of 2024. The year is over. Whether it was a good year or a bad year has already been decided and cannot really be changed. We had 366 days this year. Day 366 is not going to be the difference. With that said, it is our final chance to look ahead to 2025 before we get into 2025. Four sets of predictions are complete. We end with IndyCar, as the series is about to enter a new dynamic and television partnership.

1. Will Power has at least two pole positions and on multiple track disciplines

For the first time since 2005, we had an IndyCar season where Will Power did not win a pole position. It was not for a lack of trying. Power started second in four races and he started inside the top five in 11 of 17 races. He started in every position in the top five except first. Power will enter 2025 on a 22-race pole position drought. 

At some point in 2025, that drought will end. In 19 full seasons of IndyCar competition, Power has won at least two pole positions 14 times. He has won at least four pole positions in ten seasons. Power will get back on track and he will also do it on multiple track disciplines. 

Five of his six most recent pole positions have been on ovals, and four of those have been at Iowa. He has not won pole position for a street course race since the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg. Some of these trends will change. Power could win on all three disciplines. He will win on at least two in 2025.

2. Josef Newgarden will not have consecutive finishes outside the top 20

Since August 2023, Newgarden has not been able to completely escape a funk. Entering the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course that season, Newgarden was second in the championship, 84 points behind Álex Palou with four races remaining in the season. Then he got caught in an opening lap incident with Marcus Armstrong, got trapped a lap down and finished 25th, and Newgarden hasn't been the same since. 

In the following race, Newgarden hit the wall in Gateway and finished 25th. At Laguna Seca, he was caught in an opening lap incident and trudged along to finish 21st. 

The bad run of form could not be shaken in 2024. Along with the disqualification at St. Petersburg that classified him in 26th, Newgarden had five races where he finished outside the top twenty. At the Milwaukee doubleheader, he spun out while running second and battling Marcus Ericsson, and in the second race Newgarden was hit from behind at the waved off start, ending his race before it really began. 

In the last 21 races, Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty in eight of them, and on three occasions has he had consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. In his first 111 races with Team Penske, he had only finished outside the top twenty in four races. He finished inside the top twenty in his first 65 races with the team. 

Newgarden famously (or infamously?) used the offseason prior to 2024 to refocus on driving to achieve better results. That didn't work, but he will have another chance to correct course before 2025. Some results a driver cannot control. You cannot control if you will be run over at the start of a race or if an engineer has entered the wrong code for the push-to-pass system, but Newgarden will avoid the ruts has been falling in for the better part of the last season-and-a-half. He will get back to more of who he was from 2017 through 2022.

3. Álex Palou will have consecutive finishes outside the top 20

While Newgarden has been going through a rough spell, Álex Palou has won the championship the last two seasons and has been almost untouchable during that time. 

In 2023, he did not finish worse than eighth and he won five times with ten podium finishes. In 2024, he only won twice times and only had seven podium finishes, but he had 13 top five results. No one has kept up with Palou's consistency and that has been the key to his last two championships.

We did see Palou look human in 2024. He got trapped when Newgarden spun at Detroit and that cost him a good result, relegating him to 16th. Palou spun on his own at Iowa and finished 23rd. The car had a battery issue on the pace laps for the second Milwaukee race and Palou salvaged a 19th-place finish. With Will Power caught many laps down after his seatbelt issue in Nashville, Palou did not push it and could settle with an 11th-place finish to clinch the title. 

With those last two results, Palou will enter 2025 with consecutive results outside the top ten for the first time since August 2021. For a man who has a knack for making history, he is going to make more in 2025.

How many times has Palou finished outside the top twenty in consecutive races in his IndyCar career?

The answer is zero! It has never happened. Despite finishing 23rd on debut, Palou had never had consecutive races where he was in the bottom-third of the field whether that because of his own mistake, lack of speed or mechanical gremlins. In his first 81 starts, Palou has finished outside the top twenty in six races. Three of those came in his rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing. 

Palou is going to remain consistent and quick. He will win multiple races and he will be in the discussion, if not leading the discussion, for the championship into the final race, but if Josef Newgarden can fall into a rut and Scott Dixon, who had three finishes outside the top twenty in 2024, can fall into a rut, Palou can fall into a rut as well. It might not be for long, but any time in a rut is long enough. 

We are due for Palou having a few hands go against him and having some extra work to control the championship.

4. Colton Herta will end the year with enough FIA Super License points

Aren't you tired hearing about Colton Herta and Super License points? I am!

For nearly four years now, the biggest topic of conversation around Herta has been his lack of Super License points and it preventing him from getting a shot at Formula One, whether that be with the Andretti-led Cadillac program or with possibly Red Bull's junior team. Herta has ben a few short the entire time, and the only way to get Super License points is through results. Results were not Herta's strong point there for a few seasons.

While he was third and fifth in the 2020 and 2021 IndyCar seasons, Herta followed that with a pair of tenth-place championship finishes. Only the top ten IndyCar championship finishers earn Super License points, and tenth only pays a point. A driver needs a combined 40 points over the previous three seasons to qualify for a Super License. A combined two points over two seasons will not get you there. 

The good news for Herta is he woke up in 2024 and finished second in the championship, earning him 30 points. He will be dropping a point for his tenth in the 2022 season, but that leaves him with 31 points, needing only nine to qualify for a Super License. The problem is the points become hard to get very quickly. 

While the champion gets 40 and second gets 30. If you finish fourth, you only get ten. If you finish fifth, you only get eight. Herta could be fifth in the championship and be a point short of a Super License. What could work in Herta's favor is a driver can earn a single Super License point if he completed at least 100km in a Formula One free practice session during a grand prix weekend, and a driver can earn up to ten points through free practice.

Theoretically, Herta could finish fifth in the championship and then run a free practice at Austin with a team and that will get him to the 40-point threshold. 

I think Herta will finish inside the top four in the championship and not need the practice session. He is coming off his best season in IndyCar and Andretti Global is a more-focused organization. Herta was successful on all circuit disciplines. He picked up his first oval victory of his career. He can finish in the top four of the championship and not need to do backflips to secure Super License qualification. 

5. Scott Dixon will win a race from pole position

We are accustomed to Dixon winning races. He has won at least one race in 20 consecutive seasons. He is second all-time in victories with 58. Last season was the 18th time in Dixon's career where he won multiple races in a season. Winning is an expectation for Dixon every season.

What we should not expect from Dixon is pole positions. 

The New Zealander has gone two consecutive seasons without a pole position, and he has not won a pole position in five of the last seven seasons. Only twice has he won a pole position over the last 115 races. In that same time frame, Dixon has won 17 races. Only Josef Newgarden has won more in that timeframe. For a man who commonly finishes first, it is uncommon to see Dixon start first. 

Life is a number's game, and with someone has talent as Dixon, he will eventually win another pole position. It will click on setup and timing and Dixon will nail a lap to put him on top, but this prediction goes a step further. Not only will Dixon win a pole position, but he will turn that into a race victory.

Dixon has not won a race from pole position since Watkins Glen in 2016. To give you an idea how long ago that was, Dixon hit the 40-victory milestone with that result. He has won 18 times since! Of those 18 victories since he last won from pole position, Dixon has won from outside the top ten in four races and he has won from outside a top five starting spot ten times in that span!

It has been eight years. We are due for Dixon to qualify first at a race and then make it look easy over a two-hour drive. 

6. There will be a first-time winner with at least 50 career starts

Fifty starts is a good indicator of what a driver's career will look like. In contemporary IndyCar, three full seasons get you 51 starts. That is a good point where we find out how the rest of the grid views you. Are you seen as someone that a team must have or will you be someone who will always need funding to get on the grid? 

When it comes to winning, 50 starts is a pivotal point in time. Of the 299 recognized race winners in IndyCar history, only 28 drivers took 50 starts or more to get their first career victory. Of those 28 drivers, nine of them only won once in their careers. Only six of those drivers won more than five races in their career, and only two of them won at least ten races. Five of those 28 drivers won a championship. 

The 50 career start milestone is a pretty good barometer for what affect a driver will have on IndyCar. 

It has been a while though since we had a truly veteran driver score a first career victory. The most recent first-time winner with over 50 career starts was Josef Newgarden at Barber Motorsports Park in 2015. There was a period where we saw these type of first-time winners with greater regularity. Much of that had to do with The Split, but for us to be going on nine years without a first-time winner with at least 50 starts is a bit of a surprise. Like many predictions for 2025, we are due. 

Who could fulfill this prediction? 

Of the announced drivers for the 2025 season, the driver with the most starts without a victory is Conor Daly. Daly has made 115 starts and he has yet to win a race. He is set to become the driver with the third-most starts before a first career victory and he could be the driver with the most starts before a first victory if he does not win one of the first 14 races. 

Daly has shown good form on ovals, but he will be with Juncos Hollinger Racing. While Daly and JHR did combine for a runner-up result in Milwaukee, they will have some work to do to beat the entire IndyCar field.

Jack Harvey only has the Indianapolis 500 confirmed with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Harvey has 93 starts so he fits the criteria.

Santino Ferrucci has 77 career starts and no victories. Ferrucci has been in the picture late in the Indianapolis 500 the last few years, and like Daly, Ferrucci has had strong runs on ovals. From what we saw in 2024, it would not be all that surprising if Ferrucci were to win at Iowa or Milwaukee. He is the only driver to have six top ten finishes in his first six Indianapolis 500 starts. The Speedway isn't out of the question either. 

The only other driver with more than 50 starts but no victories that is somewhat in consideration is Romain Grosjean. Grosjean does not have a seat for 2025 at the moment, but he has made 64 starts. Dale Coyne Racing is the only team with open seats. Grosjean nearly won multiple races with Coyne in 2021. He arguably should have won once that year. If a reunion is in order, maybe we see a breakthrough. 

Those are the four drivers who would automatically fulfill the prediction. There are a few drivers just short of 50 starts that could do it but they cannot win too soon in 2025.

David Malukas has 44 starts and no victories to his name. Callum Ilott could not win until the 12th race, the second Iowa race, to qualify for this prediction. Devlin DeFrancesco and Sting Ray Robb could not win until the penultimate race at Milwaukee.

If we are being honest with ourselves, this prediction is saying one of Daly, Ferrucci, Malukas or Grosjean, if he gets a ride, will win in 2025. 

7. There will not be consecutive races where the opening lap is under caution

This wasn't really noted during the 2024 IndyCar season, but on reflection it was surprising to notice. A lot of races didn't make it through lap one this past season.

There were seven races in 2024 that had an opening lap incident. Then there was Long Beach, which saw the first lap take place under caution, and Mid-Ohio, which started under caution due to Scott Dixon's car stopping on the final pace laps. Nine races in 2024 did not see the first lap completed under green flag conditions.

There was a three-race stretch that covered the Indianapolis 500, Detroit and Road America where there was an opening lap incident. Mid-Ohio and the first Iowa race saw another pair of consecutive races without a first lap completed under green flag conditions.

One, I think IndyCar will see a correction and we will not have as many races with opening lap incidents as we did in 2024. Two, if this does happen, I don't think they will be in consecutive races. It might be alternating races, like we saw from the first Iowa race through the second Milwaukee race, but it will not be as common in 2025 to the point we have are expecting the first lap incident. 

8. Marcus Ericsson will finish in the top nine of oval points

Ericsson's first season with Andretti Global was likely not as strong as he hoped for. Not all of that was his own making. There were some growing pains, and that set Ericsson back after having finished sixth in the championship for three consecutive seasons. He dropped down to 15th, his worst championship finish since he was 17th in his rookie season in 2019.

Part of the problem were Ericsson's oval results. In seven oval races, Ericsson finished outside the top twenty in five of them. He was caught in the opening lap accident of the Indianapolis 500 when Tom Blomqvist spun. An air gun problem set him back in the second Iowa race and trapped him two laps down. He had engine issues at Gateway. There was the aforementioned accident with Newgarden in Milwaukee. His season ended when he brushed the barrier with about 70 laps remaining in Nashville. 

With that combination of results, Ericsson was 21st in oval points with only 81 points to his name. In the previous two seasons, Ericsson finished second in oval points and sixth in oval points with 224 points and 143 points respectively.

I don't think Ericsson will hit whammies like he was in 2024 on ovals again in 2025. We know what he can do. At his best, he should finish in the top third of drivers on ovals. He should get back to that status in the new season.

9. The Thermal Club race will have at least 150 total passes

IndyCar's first visit to The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California did not receive much fanfare. For starters, there weren't that many fans to begin with, but the non-championship race with a prize that was only half of what was promoted was met with disdain almost immediately and throughout the entire weekend. In 2025, Thermal Club will host a proper championship race.

Passing was a concern with the non-championship round and we saw two rather lackluster heat races, the second of which registered no passes for position. The final race was not much better, but the first half of the race saw some drivers laying back in hopes of making a rush forward in the final ten laps on less-worn tires.

That strategy did provide for a lively second-half, as Colton Hera drove up to fourth. 

Between the three parts and 38 laps of the non-championship round there were only 39 total passes, not brilliant, but we did see high-tire wear over a course of a stint, and that could play well for a full race around Thermal like we will see in 2025. 

It might not be a spectacular race, but Thermal could be more competitive than everyone expects. It might not change the perception of the race, but it could still be something respectable.

In the six IndyCar races held on permanent road courses in 2024, the average number of total passes in those races was 276 with a median of 279.5. Only one race featured fewer than 150 passes. Mid-Ohio had 116. 

There are still concerns about the Thermal layout and what kind of racing it allows, but if the tire wear remains high and you combined it with a race distance between 200 and 215 miles, which adds fuel strategy, we are not going to see a complete procession for two hours. 

10. Among the 11 full-time teams, Prema will finish at least eighth in total top ten finishes

Prema is entering IndyCar and increasing the number of full-time organizations in the series to 11. For its debut lineup, Prema is bringing a mix of experience and the unknown. Callum Ilott, a veteran of 38 IndyCar starts, will lead the team, while Robert Shwartzman, a Formula Three champion, Formula Two vice-champion and FIA World Endurance Championship race winner, will be a new addition to the series. 

At time of writing, Prema has yet to participate in a test as an IndyCar team. We do not know where Prema falls among the existing teams. Ilott has been a good driver in IndyCar, usually running in mid-pack equipment. Shwartzman was a promising prospect and was a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy. 

Last year in IndyCar, ten teams scored at least one top ten finish. Only one of those teams was a part-timer (Dreyer & Reinbold Racing at Indianapolis). Dale Coyne Racing was the only full-time team without a top ten finish. 

Finishing eighth out of 11 full-time teams does not sound like accomplishing much, but every IndyCar team is capable of getting good results on a given day. While five teams exceeded ten top ten finishes during the 2024 season, the other four full-time teams finished with either nine top ten finishes or eight top ten finishes. 

If Prema can enter IndyCar and score eight or nine top ten finishes, I think that must be considered a good year, especially since it would likely not finish last among teams in total top ten finishes. If Prema were to break ten top ten finishes in a season, it would put the organization in the top half of the grid. 

There will likely be a few tough outings, but Prema has the drivers to put together some respectable days. Ilott was getting top five finishes at Juncos Hollinger Racing. Shwartzman will be learning, but we have seen Christian Lundgaard enter and become a contender early. Marcus Armstrong, a past teammate of Shwartzman's, has been quick and scored good results. If it clicks, Shwartzman could pull out some impressive results. 

Looking at the rest of the grid and knowing the struggles teams have had, I think Prema can score more top ten finishes than Coyne, Juncos Hollinger Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing. It could even edge out Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. 

11. There will be a change to the IndyCar practice structure

This is factoring in the new television contract with Fox, which says all practice sessions will be broadcasted on FS1 or FS2. This is a big change for IndyCar, as previously no practice sessions were on cable television. Every session was available on Peacock, and the openness of streaming allowed IndyCar practice to be IndyCar practice without the broadcaster dictating how the session was run.

IndyCar practice could be 45 minutes with a 20-minute delay in the middle due to a red flag. Peacock was not beholden to a time window. If there was a 30-minute delay during the session, Peacock could show all 75 minutes. If IndyCar wanted to try a new practice structure, like it did in 2024, where every car will get 45 minutes of practice time but it took place over a 70-minute window, that works for Peacock. 

With FS1 or FS2, those cable channels have timeslots. Something will be following an IndyCar practice session. If it is one of FS1's many talk shows, FS1 isn't going to hang with IndyCar for an extra ten or 15 minutes for practice. Television windows are not accommodating to 75-minute sessions. It is also less likely IndyCar will be given 90 minutes for practice. Anything within 60 minutes is good.

I expect in the weeks leading up to St. Petersburg an announcement about practice changing, even if only minor, to every session being a 45-minute session and it will be an all-skate, which will clutter the racetrack and annoy some teams, but this is what is necessary with this new television deal. 

I would also not be surprised if qualifying is tweaked for road and street courses because road and street course qualifying has usually taken about 70-75 minutes to complete without any issues. IndyCar might get a 90-minute television window for qualifying, but I also believe Fox will likely want that in a tidy 60-minute window, especially if it is leading into a baseball game on a Saturday. 

Be prepared for changes.

12. At least one race outside the Indianapolis 500 will have a car fail to qualify

With the introduction of the charter system to IndyCar, there will be a cap on number of starters at every race on the 2025 calendar. 

The 25 charter entries will all be guaranteed a spot in every race outside of the Indianapolis 500. Every race besides the Indianapolis 500 will be limited to 27 starters. With 27 full-time entries anticipated, every race is at full capacity before we even get into the season. If any team wishes to field an additional entry or if a new team looks to run an IndyCar race, the non-chartered entries will all compete for those final two spots.

Prema's two entries are currently the only non-chartered teams entering the races outside the Indianapolis 500. As long as no one else shows up, Prema will be safe. If one additional entries appears then Prema will be at risk of an entry missing a race.

Last season saw one race feature 28 starters besides the Indianapolis 500. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entered a fourth car at Portland. 

As much as everyone believes that no team will field an additional car outside of Indianapolis, if there is enough money and interest, an additional entry can form for a race. I don't think the big teams will do it, but I believe at one race and additional entry will form and there will be a case of 28 cars with 27 available starts.

This is IndyCar after all. There is bound to be one weekend where everyone will feel uncomfortable about a car missing the Gateway race or Laguna Seca race.

And that is it for 2024! Feel free to check out any of the other four predictions done for Formula One, NASCAR, sports car racing and motorcycle racing. We will be back to normal at the start of 2025 as we begin our preview period before series begin competition.

2025 Formula One Predictions

Happy Boxing Day! Christmas is over and we have a few more days before the year comes to a close. This brings us to our Boxing Day tradition, Formula One predictions! The 2024 season had the final result we expected, but boy did the 2024 season not go as we thought. It has led to big dreams for what 2025 will look like. Change is now expected, and these predictions reflect that mindset.

1. None of the top five championship finishers in 2024 finish in the same position in 2025

After how the 2024 season ended and all the movement during the silly season, we are going to see some changes in 2025. This is saying Max Verstappen will not win a fifth consecutive championship. It is a hard thing to suggest, but the second half of this season showed Red Bull was not keeping up with the likes of McLaren and Ferrari. Red Bull could find form and Verstappen could pull this one out to the surprise of no one. I don't think that will happen.

The championship favorite feels like Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc was not far off Norris. If Piastri starts the season hot, he could be McLaren's favorite. Carlos Sainz, Jr. will fall out of fifth moving to Williams. Mercedes did good but not great. Lewis Hamilton has moved to Ferrari. If Red Bull is good, Liam Lawson could shoot up there.

If there was a collective survey over what people think the 2025 championship top five will look like, I would believe it would look like Norris, Leclerc, Verstappen, Hamilton and Piastri. It feels realistic. 

2. Max Verstappen has fewer total podium finishes but he will have a stretch with three consecutive podium finishes

In 24 races, Verstappen had 14 podium finishes. Nine of those came in the first 12 races. In the final 12 races, his podium finishes rate was 41.667%. Expand that over a full 24-race season and he would have ten podium finishes. 

Ten feels low, but 11 podium finishes with about four victories feels like a very possible 2025 season for the Dutchman. He will have good days and be competitive, but I am not sure we are going to see him live on the podium like he has in recent seasons. 

Last season, Verstappen had only one stretch where he finished on the podium in at least three consecutive races. That was from Japan to Imola where he won three times and he was second at Miami. Despite this expected dip in form, I think Verstappen can have a three-race run where he is first, third and third or second, third and third or first, first and second. 

We saw Mercedes have its stretches last year. Lewis Hamilton had a run of first, third and first in 2024. Oscar Piastri was second, first and third over Monza, Baku and Singapore. The 2025 season might not sheer dominance, but we will see Verstappen have good runs even if he is not champion.

3. Lando Norris will have consecutive finishes outside the points

In 2024, Norris did not have consecutive finishes outside the points. He had one finish outside the points the entire season. That was the Austrian Grand Prix after contact with Verstappen punctured his tire. In 2023, Norris had two occasions where he did not finish in the points in consecutive races. It first happened in the first two races of the season and then it happened in the seventh and eighth races in Spain and Canada.

I expect a competitive championship battle, and though Norris was second this season and the clear #2 driver to Verstappen, I expect Norris to get into some tough battles and go over the edge at times. It will be a weekly grind to win the championship. There will be tight moments where he feel the pressure of not being able to sacrifice points, but it will put him over and either cause a mistake or he will push the car beyond its limits.

This could be the case across the board. It isn't just Norris that has this concern. The same can be true for Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. If all these drivers stumble, it opens the door for Verstappen to take control though potentially racing at a disadvantage. I don't think Norris will have a bad season, but he will experience bumps in the road.

4. Lewis Hamilton wins at least four pole positions

We ended the 2024 season with Hamilton questioning his qualifying ability and whether he still has it. He was also driving for a good but not great Mercedes organization that was not producing cars with consistently great one-lap pace. 

Ferrari has done well with one-lap pace, even if it has not translated to victories. Charles Leclerc won four pole positions last year. Carlos Sainz, Jr. won one. Leclerc has 26 pole positions. In three of six seasons at Ferrari, Leclerc has won at least five pole positions. He has never won more than three races in a season, but he has been able to win pole positions. 

If Hamilton still has it and Ferrari is on the right path, Hamilton will win a few pole positions. Four does not seem crazy especially if Leclerc can win four. 

5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli scores the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2013

The long-awaited arrival of Italy's next great Formula One star is here. At 18 years, six month and 19 years old, Antonelli will become the third-youngest starter in Formula One history at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix. He is doing it with a team that is a little bit in limbo. 

Mercedes is losing the driver that set its identity for the previous decade. It found good form at spurts in 2024, but it was not consistent, and the team frequently expressed frustration. The results were good, but I don't know if Antonelli is ready for this.

His debut season in Formula Two was good, but he looked young. He did not finish on the podium until he won the sprint race in Silverstone. He did win the feature race at the Hungaroring, but he had three podium finishes all season. For an 18-year-old, this was a good first year in Formula Two. It likely shouldn't have led to a Formula One season, especially with this Mercedes team. 

Mercedes will be doing some soul-searching in 2025. That might not be the right spot for an 18-year-old to step into. 

Last season was the first time Mercedes did not finish in the top three of the constructors' championship since 2012. In 2013, Lewis Hamilton was fourth in the championship on 189 points, his first year with Mercedes. Nico Rosberg was sixth on 171 points. Last season, George Russell led Mercedes with 245 points in sixth. Hamilton was seventh with 223 points. 

I do not envision Antonelli matching the 223 points Hamilton produced. I think 200 points could be ambitious, especially if Red Bull has two drivers scoring points and both McLarens and both Ferraris are clicking. In 2023, Russell scored only 175 points. If Antonelli can match that, it will be a good first season. 

6. Williams will have a top six finish on the road in a race that does not end prematurely

This might be asking a lot of Williams, which scored only 17 points last year, but it has two competent drivers in Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz, Jr. The introduction of Sainz, Jr. will not turn this team into a contender for race victories, but it adds some muscle. 

Williams has not had a top six finisher since George Russell was second in the 2021 Belgian Grand Prix, but as we all remember, that wasn't really a race. That was three laps behind the safety car in wet conditions and the race being called. The last time Williams has had a top six finisher in a race that went the distance was Lance Stroll finishing sixth in the 2017 Mexican Grand Prix.

With Albon and Sainz, Jr., combined with the promise we have seen from Williams at times over the last few seasons, I think it has one great day and can put a car in the top six. 

7. Haas scores its second most points in team history

With Ayao Komatsu as team principal, Haas scored 58 points and finished seventh in the constructors' championship. In the previous four seasons, Haas scored a combined 52 points. This was Haas' best finish in the constructors' championship since 2018. It ended the season with eight finishes in the points in the final nine races. This year was the second-most points Haas has scored in a season.

In 2025, it will have Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman as its lineup. Bearman has already scored points with the team. He was tenth at Baku. I think Haas will top 2024, but not quite come close to its 93-point output of 2018. Haas showed great pace at times in 2024. It brings in the experience of Ocon and combines the potential of Bearman. In 190 races of competition, Haas has yet to finish on the podium. That will still be a stretch, but the cars are capable to put them in a position to do something special on a crazy day.

8. Fernando Alonso says something that makes Lawrence Stroll respond and it is a headline

There is no statistical data or trend behind this prediction other than Aston Martin took a step back in 2024, it does not feel like Aston Martin is heading in the right direction for 2025, and there is a certain driver on that team who does not hold his tongue when he is upset.

Fernando Alonso does not mince his words when things are not going well, and after going from fourth in the championship on 206 points, Alonso dropped to ninth on 70 points in championship in 2024. Aston Martin remained fifth in the constructors' championship, but it went from 22 points off fourth to 374 points off fourth. We started hearing more displeasure from Alonso the later we got this past season. 

Alonso is going to say something. He is going to be frustrated at some point about being unable to run any better than seventh. He will be tired of being responsible for 85% of Aston Martin's success. He has run out of cards to play, but he also doesn't care anymore. He will lay into Aston Martin, say one thing too many and it will draw a response from Lawrence Stroll because Lawrence Stroll will not go quietly into the night. 

9. The team formerly known as Toro Rosso will feature three drivers

You would think the team formerly known as Toro Rosso would be set for its 2025 driver lineup after it had three drivers rotate through its two cars in 2024, especially after the team has promoted Isack Hadjar from Formula Two for his debut season. With Yuki Tsunoda remaining, you would think this would be a stable season for the team formerly known as Toro Rosso. 

Think again! 

It is Red Bull. They were barely sold on Liam Lawson taking over the second seat at the main team alongside Verstappen. Someone will get to a slow start, Helmut Marko will be upset about a driver's performance, and they will be looking to make a change for some reason. 

We aren't going to get Sergio Pérez or Daniel Ricciardo filling that third seat. But Franco Colapinto is out there and he was rumored of becoming a Red Bull driver when Colapinto was impressing with Williams. If Tsunoda is shaky, Red Bull will pull him. If Hadjar is off to a slow start, it is not tied to him. The same goes for Lawson. If Lawson starts slow and Tsunoda is looking good, Red Bull will rotate. We have seen it done before.

Musical chairs is never out of the question at the Red Bull party. 

10. Jack Doohan will have at least six finishes between eighth and tenth

Alpine had a better season than expected in 2024, thanks in part to a double podium day in Brazil, but Alpine was more competitive down the stretch and Pierre Gasly got results. It may have scored nearly half the points as it did in 2023, but it remained sixth in the constructors' championship despite the downturn. 

Doohan made his debut at Abu Dhabi after finishing third in the 2023 Formula Two championship. Alpine might be better but not necessarily great. There will be more races without points than races with, but Doohan will have some good days. They might be in Gasly's shadow, but he will pick up some points here and there. 

Gasly had six finishes between eighth and tenth in 2024. Esteban Ocon had four. Doohan can fill that role and match what Gasly did to an extent.

11. Both Sauber drivers will score at least ten points

There will be two new drivers for Sauber in 2025. One is familiar. Twelve years after he first drove for the Swiss organization, Nico Hülkenberg is back after two full seasons with Haas and only four starts over the previous three seasons before that. Joining Hülkenberg will be the 2024 Formula Two champion Gabriel Bortoleto. 

It has not been the greatest period for Sauber. It has finished better than eighth in the constructors' championship only once in the last decade. Five times in the last 11 seasons has Sauber failed to score double-digit points in a season. It has not had a podium finish since 2012. 

Why do we believe both drivers will score at least ten points in 2025? Hülkenberg scored 41 points last year and ended up 11th in the drivers' championship. Bortoleto is coming off a Formula Two season where he had eight podium finishes and both his victories came in feature races, and Bortoleto won the Formula Three championship the year before that. 

Ten is not a lot of points, but it can be a mountain for some teams, especially Sauber. Sauber has not had both drivers break ten points in a season since 2019. It might not be by much, but Hülkenberg and Bortoleto will each get to ten, even if it means Sauber will only have 20 points in 2025 and still finishes ninth in the constructors' championship.

12. Michael Schumacher will move up to fourth all-time in winning percentage after the 2025 season

You may be curious about this one because Michael Schumacher will not be competing in the 2025 season. How could Schumacher move up in the record book? Because winning percentage is a fluctuating statistic until a driver retires from competition. Schumacher might not be competing, but Max Verstappen still is.

Verstappen is one of four drivers in Formula One history with a winning percentage above 30%.

Juan Manuel Fangio - 47.06%

Alberto Ascari - 40.63%

Jim Clark - 34.72%

Max Verstappen - 30.14%

However, there will be 24 races in the 2025. Verstappen will need to win at least seven grand prix in 2025 to maintain a 30% winning percentage once the 2025 season is over. Verstappen won nine races in 2024 but won only twice in the final 13 races. He had a ten-race winless streak during this past season. 

Seven victories sounds like a minimum for Verstappen, especially since he has won at least nine races in the last four seasons. But with the questions about Red Bull's strength heading into 2025, there is a good chance Verstappen will not win seven races. 

If Verstappen only wins six races in 2025 and starts all 24 races, his winning percentage will drop to 29.613%. That would fall behind Michael Schumacher's winning percentage of 29.74%. 

But hold on! There is more! There is more than Verstappen to consider. 

As much as this is about Verstappen winning six races or fewer, we must also consider Lewis Hamilton, who ranks sixth all-time in winning percentage at 29.49%. Hamilton could surpass 29.74% winning percentage if he wins nine races in 2025. I don't think Hamilton will do that. 

Verstappen wins six races or fewer and Hamilton does not win more than nine races. Those two combining see Schumacher rise up to fourth in the record book without every turning a lap in the 2025 season. 

Two predictions are complete. Three remain. Comeback tomorrow for the next installment.

2025 NASCAR Predictions

We are into the final fortnight of 2024, and as we do in the final days of a year, we begin to look ahead to next year. As is custom, our predictions series begins with NASCAR, which may not be the most recent series to conclude, but it will be one of the first series back in 2025.

1. Team Penske will not have a driver make the final four in the Cup Series

How does a team follow up three consecutive Cup Series championship? By not even having a challenger for the title in the final race. That is right. Team Penske will be shut out of the championship four in 2025. 

For starters, Penske has been rather fortunate in the last two years to win the championship. In each of the last two seasons, the Penske champion has reset the record for fewest top five finishes for a champion in NASCAR's modern era. Joey Logano only scored the 12th most points this year. Too many things went right for Logano to claim the trophy at Phoenix. At some point, it will not work out. 

That will be in 2025. Not only was Penske's overall results a cause for concern, but the NASCAR Cup Series is deep. Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were all on the outside of the championship four in 2024. That could be the final four in 2025. Perhaps Logano and Ryan Blaney fall out while Larson and a surprise Chase Briscoe makes a statement in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. Maybe Kyle Busch experiences a career revival and makes a run to the finale where he faces off with Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher for the cup. 

Penske is good, but at some point good will not be enough to have a title shot into the finale.

2. There will be at least two occasions where a driver wins consecutive races

In 2024, no driver in the NASCAR Cup Series won consecutive races. The Cup Series enters 2025 without seeing a driver with consecutive races in 46 consecutive races. The most recent driver with consecutive victories was Chris Buescher at Richmond and Michigan in 2023. 

How does NASCAR correct this? We will see a driver win consecutive races at least twice in 2025.

Where does the schedule set up for a driver to win consecutive races?

Are you going to rule out Kyle Larson winning at Las Vegas and Homestead in March? Or Homestead and Martinsville? Larson could very well win three consecutive races, and Darlington and Bristol follow that. He could win five straight! 

Why couldn't Denny Hamlin win the Coca-Cola 600 and then win at Nashville to make up for one that got away last season. 

Joey Logano has had success at Michigan, and Logano frequently wins debut races. He could follow a Michigan victory with victory in the inaugural NASCAR Cup race from Mexico City. 

Chicago and Sonoma are consecutive weekends. There are about nine drivers in the Cup Series that would not surprise you if they won consecutive road course races.

It will be at least twice, maybe even three times in 2025.

3. At least three non-playoff drivers in 2024 will have clinched a playoff spot within the first 13 races of 2025

It does feel like we see surprise winners early in a season. Take 2024 for example. Daniel Suárez and Brad Keselowski did not win a race in 2023 and both missed the playoffs. Both won within the first 13 races of 2024 and locked up a playoff spot. 

In 2023, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the Daytona 500, and Martin Truex, Jr., who had not won in 2022, won the 11th race at Dover. The 2022 season had Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain all picking up their first career victories within the first six races. 

Droughts end early and often in the NASCAR Cup Series, and I think 2025 will be the same. 

Notable non-playoff drivers from last year include Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Chastain and Kyle Busch. Throw in Shane van Gisbergen and A.J. Allmendinger, who both move up to the Cup Series full-time while combining the fact Circuit of the Americas in the third race of the season, and we could see some unfamiliar winners early in 2025. I think we see at least three.

4. Josh Berry will be the best sophomore driver in the championship

Carson Hocevar comfortably won the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year. With 686 points in 21st, Hocevar was six spots and 107 points ahead of the next best rookie. That was Josh Berry. 

Hocevar remains with Spire Motorsports, which will see Michael McDowell and Justin Haley join that operation. Meanwhile, Berry moves from the closing Stewart-Haas Racing to Wood Brothers Racing.

Berry should be an upgrade over Harrison Burton. Berry might not win two or three races and pick up 15 top ten finishes, but he should be more competitive. Hocevar had a good end to the season. He had five top ten finishes and was third at Watkins Glen. Berry had four top ten finishes, which included a pair of third place results, but those all came within a six-race period.

The team change will raise Berry, and I don't know if Hocevar will even be the top Spire driver with new competition in-house. 

5. Kyle Larson will have at least one stretch with five consecutive top ten finishes

You may think you remember Larson's 2024 season very well. He led the Cup Series with six victories and missed out on the championship four, but was in the picture for making it to the finale for entire Martinsville race before Ryan Blaney pulled away. But you may forgetting some parts of Larson's season. 

In a 36-race season, Larson had only 18 top ten finishes, exactly half the races. Not bad, but not great either. Even less impressive when you noticed he had six finishes outside the top 30. He had ten finishes outside the top twenty in 2024. 

You may think for the greatest driver in the world, five consecutive top ten finishes is nothing, but it would be quite the achievement for Larson. In 2024, Larson never finished in the top ten in three consecutive races. On seven occasions he had back-to-back top ten results, but he never made it to three consecutive races. Larson hasn't had at least five consecutive top ten finishes since an eight-race top ten streak in 2021 from Darlington in May through Pocono in June. 

Larson will find some form and consistency in 2025.

6. Shane van Gisbergen will end the season with at least ten playoff points

Expectations might be set too high for van Gisbergen in his first full Cup Series season. He might have won on debut and three times as a rookie in NASCAR's second division, but the Cup Series is tough. Drivers do not waltz in and win a bunch of races.

Ten playoff points suggests van Gisbergen will win two races. With six road/street course races, it sets up nice for him. Two victories is not crazy, but he could fall short. He could win none. Consider Austin Cindric's road course success in the second level only to still be winless on road course in the Cup Series after three full seasons. I bet no one saw that coming at the start of 2022. 

This prediction also takes into consideration stage victories. Van Gisbergen might win a race with no stage victories and then win five elsewhere, whether that be at other road courses or because he did not stop before a stage caution. 

I don't think van Gisbergen is going to go six-for-six on the road and street courses. Two victories feels reasonable.

7. The finalists in NASCAR's in-season tournament will both be ranked in the top ten in points entering Indianapolis

The 2025 season will see NASCAR's first year of an in-season tournament. Over five races, the top 32 drivers will be a part of a single-elimination bracket that will determine a tournament champion based on head-to-head matchups. 

The first race will be at Atlanta in June before going to Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and finishing with the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. 

This is ripe for an odd final. Head-to-head can produce fluky results. Toss in the first three rounds being a drafting track, a street course and a road course, and we could see a crazy quadrant of semifinalists before we even get to the final. 

However, I believe the best in NASCAR will come out on top. There will be a few upsets early, but enough good drivers will survive and make the final reflect the actual talent in the series.

8. Front Row Motorsports will win no more than two pole positions

How many pole positions did Front Row Motorsports win last year? 

Six.

All with Michael McDowell.

All at the drafting tracks (Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta).

McDowell is gone, and no team is going to get that lucky again. As good as Todd Gilliland and Noah Gragson might be, six pole positions are a lot. There is no guarantee Front Row Motorsports will still have that advantage on these flat-out circuits. 

I will leave the door open that FRM will still be good and respectable, but they will not be as dominant as it was in qualifying last year.

9. At least one driver in NASCAR's second division will have at least five victories

In 2024, no driver in NASCAR's second division won five races. Austin Hill led the way with four victories. It was the first time a driver did not win at least five races in a season since 2003. 

That means somebody is going to win at least five races in 2025. There is a good collection of drivers competing in this series. Justin Allgaier is coming off his first career championship. Austin Hill is still around. Jesse Love had a good but not great rookie year. Haas Factory Team will run two cars for Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer. Carson Kvapil, Connor Zilisch and Christian Eckes will all be rookies.

The field is good, but someone is winning five races, and that might be enough to claim the title.

10. Sheldon Creed will have more victories than runner-up finishes

Creed has gotten a bad rap for his inability to win. What is more stunning is Creed's ability to finish in second. 

In 102 starts in NASCAR's second division, Creed has 13 runner-up finishes. On three occasions has Creed finished runner-up in consecutive races. He had six runner-up results in 2024 alone. If he had finished one spot better in all of those races... well, if he had won seven times in his first two seasons Creed would have wound up full-time in Cup in 2024, but 13 wins in 102 races would be a 12.7% winning percentage and 12th all-time. Of course, Creed isn't there, but it hasn't been for a lack of trying. 

Remember, this prediction is not "Creed will win six races." It is Creed will finish first more than he finishes second. He could win once and have zero second-place finishes in 2025. He could win twice and finish second once. This is as much about Creed not finishing second as it is him winning. Six runner-up finishes will be tough to match. That number will come down. It will come down because some races he will finish first.

11. Corey Heim wins at least nine races in NASCAR national series competition

Speaking of winning percentage, Heim has won 17.1875% of his start in the NASCAR Truck Series. That is pretty good. Is it nine victories good? No. That success rate would only translate to 4.29 victories in the 2025 Truck season, but the truck field has gotten weaker.

Christian Eckes is gone. Nick Sanchez is gone. Taylor Gary is gone. Daniel Dye is gone. That is 40% of the playoff drivers from 2024, and two of those guys didn't even win a race. Eckes won four times. Sanchez won twice. Someone will have to win those races.

In the last three seasons, Heim has won two, four and six races respectively. He will have plenty of challengers. Champion Ty Majeski is still around. Grant Enfinger will figure into a race or two. Layne Riggs was coming on strong late in 2024. Rajah Caruth is back for a second season. Daniel Hemric could be competitive. 

Nine victories is a lot. Nobody has won nine races in a Truck season since Greg Biffle in 1999, but the Truck Series will also have 25 races in 2025, two more than last year. Plus, Heim could run some races in NASCAR's second series, and he looked strong at that level last year driving for Sam Hunt Racing. If anyone at Toyota had a brain, Heim would be in a Gibbs car on a part-time basis.

Heim might win nine Truck races on his own, but he could also win seven Truck races and two in the second division. Be prepared for Heim victories. 

12. One driver wins a race in all three national touring series

This one seems simple, and it is. Why this prediction? Because no driver won in all three series in 2024.

Four drivers won in two. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott all won in the top two series. Ross Chastain won in Cup and Trucks. 

In 2023, Larson won in all three series. It didn't happen in 2022 either. Kyle Busch did it in 2021. Busch actually did it in nine consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2021, and he also did it in from 2005 to 2011. Kevin Harvick did it in 2012. Denny Hamlin also did it in 2011. 

It has happened at least once in 18 of the last 20 seasons. I don't know who will do it in 2025. The landscape has changed where we do not see many Cup drivers running in either of the other two national touring series with great regularity, but it will happen in 2025. 

It could be Kyle Larson, possibly it is Kyle Busch returning to his old form of dominating the lower series. Maybe it is someone completely out of nowhere (Connor Zilisch!). It will happen.

Speaking of will happen, more predictions will come next week as we wind down 2024 and gaze ahead to 2025.

2024 IndyCar Predictions

We come to the grand finale, our annual final post of the year, the IndyCar predictions for the pending New Year. It has been 110 days since the most recent IndyCar race. There are still 72 days until the next time IndyCar thunders to the green flag. In the interim, drivers have changed teams, as have a few sponsors. A few spots remain open, and we will learn more about the 2024 grid when the New Year comes. 

Even with those holes, we can start looking ahead to the new season. There are drivers coming off historic seasons, some drivers performed below a desirable level in 2023 and hope to do better. Will we see more history? Are we on the verge of a new era of dominance, or will 2024 take us on a turn in a different direction? 

1. Álex Palou will have at least four finishes outside the top ten

Palou is coming off arguably the best season in IndyCar since reunification. Five victories, ten podium finishes, 13 top five finishes and he finished no worse than eighth all season, leaving him with an average finish of 3.7059. He became the first champion to clinch with a race to spare since Sébastien Bourdais in the 2007 Champ Car season. 

There is also the contract situation, where Palou is staying with Ganassi but McLaren is suing him and we will have that hang over another IndyCar season. Off-track drama aside, Palou will continue to strive for more IndyCar history. 

For how good as Palou has been since joining Chip Ganassi Racing, it cannot last forever. Even the best drivers have an off-year. After finishing every race in the top ten, he is going to have a few off days in 2024. Since joining Ganassi, he has never had more than three finishes outside the top ten in a season. That is going to change in 2023. It doesn't mean Palou will have a bad season, but he will not be as bulletproof as last season.

2. Chip Ganassi Racing's top five finish total decreases by at least 25%

Staying with Chip Ganassi Racing, it wasn't just Palou that had a phenomenal 2023 season. It was the entire Ganassi organization. The team won nine of 17 races. It had 19 podium finishes out of a possible 51, and it had 28 top five finishes. 

It wasn't just Álex Palou. Scott Dixon had a fantastic season. Dixon finished seventh or better in 16 of 17 races. If it wasn't for a tiff with Patricio O'Ward at Long Beach, we could have seen two Ganassi drivers finish in the top ten of every race. 

Palou had 13 top five finishes and Dixon had 11. The departed Marcus Ericsson had four top five finishes. That was quite a season, but it will be difficult to duplicate. Ericsson is gone, so that is at least four top five finishes lost. Marcus Armstrong had a good rookie season, and he will be full-time in 2024, but his best finish was seventh. Armstrong should breakthrough, but it is not guaranteed he will match the 2023 output.

It cannot be assumed Palou and Dixon will match their output either. Along with Armstrong, Linus Lundqvist will be full-time after a good cameo in 2023. The team will expand to five cars with Kyffin Simpson moving up from Indy Lights. Ganassi will have the numbers, but that does not mean it will get the results. 

We are looking at 21 top five finishes or fewer from Ganassi. That could be eight top five finishes from each Palou and Dixon and two from each of Lundqvist and Armstrong, and the team would still be two short of disproving this prediction. 

3. Every driver that did not win in 2023 but won in 2022 will win in 2024

That means Will Power, Alexander Rossi, Patricio O'Ward and Colton Herta will all win a race. It might sound like a stretch, but are all of these drivers going to be winless for another season?

For Power and O'Ward, victory feels inevitable in 2024. O'Ward probably should have won once in 2023. Power is driving for Penske. It will line up for him. Rossi is a greater question mark than O'Ward though they are McLaren teammates. Rossi had his own slumps at Andretti Autosport. A second year at McLaren should help him and he should be in better positions to compete for victories. 

Herta is in an odd spot. There wasn't really a race in 2023 where you felt Herta should have won. Andretti Autosport was spotty, seemingly only able to get one car to click or none of the cars to click. Herta has the ability to win races. Things should lineup for him in 2024. 

We will chalk off 2023 as an off-year for all of these drivers. They will be back on the top step of the podium in 2024.

4. Josef Newgarden will finish third-place in at least one street course race

Four victories, including an Indianapolis 500 triumph, would be a great year for most drivers. It didn't quite feel that way for Newgarden. Late troubles saw him fall out of the championship mix and end up fifth in the championship, his worst championship finish since 2018. 

For as good as we saw Newgarden on ovals, his road and street course form took a dip in 2023. His only podium finish on a road or street course was second at Road America. His average finish in street races was ninth. He finished outside the top ten in five road/street course events. 

Oval success is good, but you must be good on road and street courses if you want to win the IndyCar championship. Those make up nearly two-thirds of the calendar.

This is a very specific prediction. Why is it a very specific prediction? 

Newgarden has not finished third since the 2020 season opener at Texas. He has not finished third on a road course since Road America in 2019. 

However, the only time Josef Newgarden has finished third in a street course race was the 2017 Grand Prix of Long Beach, his second start with Team Penske. It feels improbable that he would be pushing over seven years since he finished third in a street course race. That streak will end in 2024.

5. McLaren will lead at least 100 laps over the final eight races

It has already been covered, but McLaren started 2023 with six brilliant performances that makes it more unfathomable the team did not win one of them. The three-car team led over a quarter of the laps run in that six-race period. 

As for the final 11 races, McLaren led only 50 laps, just 3.448% of the laps run. Another winless season is unacceptable, and it shouldn't be the case with O'Ward and Rossi leading the way with David Malukas joining the fold. 

If there is one thing that helps McLaren with this prediction it is Malukas has been good at Gateway. There are also two Milwaukee races that could play into Malukas' and McLaren's favor. This team is going to more than double the laps it leads in the second half of the season compared to 2023. It should yield a few victories as well.

6. Romain Grosjean averages less than 17 points per start

Moving to Juncos Hollinger Racing, Grosjean hopes the third team is the charm in his IndyCar career as the Frenchman continues to search for his first career victory. 

There were a few performances that were good enough for victory, whether it was a pair of races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with Dale Coyne Racing as a rookie in 2021, a few good runs at Long Beach, a deflating defeat at St. Petersburg or a losing battle at Barber Motorsports Park, Grosjean has been there, but it just hasn't gone his way so far. 

It will be an uphill battle at JHR, a team that has two top five finishes in 52 IndyCar appearances and has never finished on the podium. This is also a significant change at JHR as Grosjean is replacing Callum Ilott, who is responsible for JHR's best finishes after two growing years. 

Grosjean has had some close calls with victories, but he has shown some warts in his past two IndyCar seasons. He has been 13th in the championship each of the last two years. In 2023, he scored 32 fewer points than he scored finishing 13th in 2022. 

After finishing second in consecutive races at Long Beach and Barber, Grosjean had one top ten finish in the final 13 races of the season, a sixth at Nashville. His average finish was 15.176, only 0.118 positions better than Ilott. 

An average of 17 points per race would earn him 289 points. That would have been good enough for 13th last year in the championship as Rinus VeeKay was 14th on 277 points. I don't think Grosjean is going to crack the top 13 for a third consecutive year and I expect a step back.

7. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have at least three races where all three cars finishing in the top ten

No team had a more Dr. Jekyell and Mr. Hyde season than Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing in 2023. 

When the team was on, it looked like the one of the best in IndyCar and was taking it to Penske, Ganassi and was clear of McLaren and Andretti. When this team was lost, it was fighting with Dale Coyne Racing and not really challenging for the top ten. 

Christian Lundgaard lifted the team to an eighth-place championship finish, better than the average driver could likely yield from such a ride, and Graham Rahal recovered after a rough start to finish 15th in the championship. The third car continued to struggle and it led to Jack Harvey being dismissed with three races remaining in the season. 

Lundgaard and Rahal will return while Pietro Fittipaldi moves into the #30 Honda in what will be Fittipaldi's first IndyCar appearance in nearly three years and in what will be his first full season in IndyCar after making his debut six years ago. Fittipaldi is a little unknown, but he looked good in 2018, a year where his final starts were made while still recovering from injuries suffered at Spa-Francorchamps in FIA World Endurance Championship competition. 

Last year, RLLR never had all three cars finish in the top ten in a single race. It had double top ten finishes in five races. I think the team makes a step forward and has all three cars competing at a higher level. There will be at least three races where every RLLR car is in the top ten.

8. Tom Blomqvist's average finish will be greater than 20.0

There were a fair number of unexpected debutants in 2023 that foreshadowed full-time IndyCar roles. Blomqvist was one of them, stepping into the #60 Meyer Shank Racing Honda for three races while Simon Pagenaud was sidelined. 

It was a rude-awakening for the Briton. Blomqvist was taken out on the opening lap on debut in Toronto. He was then a lap down in 24th at Portland after starting 27th out of 27 cars, and his Laguna Seca race ended after contact with only 61 laps completed. 

I don't think 2024 will be much better. IndyCar will be his focus after he made these late appearances while focused on IMSA competition, but Blomqvist is making this move with his only single-seater experience in the last ten years being 23 Formula E races from 2018 through 2021. His best finish in Formula E was eighth.

It will be ten years since his final Formula Three season when Blomqvist finished second to Esteban Ocon and nine points ahead of Max Verstappen. He is also making this move with Meyer Shank Racing, which has been woeful for the last two seasons. It currently isn't the best place for a driver to drop into IndyCar after a decade in sports car racing. 

Maybe it works out and MSR's lack of a sports car program elevates the IndyCar team with more focus on Blomqvist and Felix Rosenqvist. I just don't see it, and considering Hélio Castroneves had an average finish of 17.294 and the #60 car had an average of 20.0588. Simon Pagenaud's average was 19.125 before his accident. 

The pieces aren't adding up to think we are going to see much of an improvement.

9. A.J. Foyt Racing will have multiple top ten finishes

For a team that had one top five finish for the entire 2023 season, it sure had everyone raving. 

All anyone remembers from A.J. Foyt's 2023 season is Santino Ferrucci was third in the Indianapolis 500, led laps and had a realistic shot at victory. That is foolish because it neglects a team that had a combined 22 out of a possible 34 finishes outside the top twenty. The team had four top fifteen finishes all season, three of which were on ovals. 

A.J. Foyt Racing, once again, has a lot of work to do. The good news is the team announced a technical alliance at the end of last season with Team Penske. Penske will supply dampers and engineering support while also assigning crew members to the Foyt team. It isn't quite a full-scale satellite team, but a Penske-lite effort sounds much more competitive than anything A.J. Foyt Racing has put on track the last decade. 

We aren't sure what the Foyt driver lineup will look like in 2024. The team announced Sting Ray Robb will drive its #41 entry. Benjamin Pedersen responded saying he was still under contract with Foyt and would be driving for the team. The team has not confirmed Ferrucci will be returning for any races in 2024. 

Robb is not a massive improvement over Pedersen. Ferrucci already had one top ten finish. With a little more support, he could get a second on his own. A Robb-Pedersen combination does not inspire much hope of two top ten finishes. Ferrucci being in the team at all increases hope significantly. There could be a third option with an unknown driver at this time. 

With Penske support, it feels like a halfway decent driver can pick up two top ten finishes. If Foyt can find that driver, 2024 should be better than 2023, nothing revolutionary, but better and better is a start.  

10. The second-place starting position will produce multiple winners

Basic numbers game. 

In 2022, the second-place starter won seven times, including a stretch where the second-place starter won four consecutive races. 

In 2023, the second-place starter won zero times. The outside of the front row, middle of the front row at Indianapolis, enters 2024 on a 20-race winless streak. 

Prior to 2023, second starting position had not gone winless in a season since 2015. That was a part of a 52-race drought that went from the middle of 2013 through the middle of 2016. 

I don't think we are going to be pushing 52 races again. At least two races will season the second-place starter take victory. 

11. At least one team ends an oval winless streak that is at least four years long

In the last four seasons, five different teams have won an oval race in IndyCar. That is five different teams in the last 20 oval races. That means five IndyCar teams have not won an oval race in the last four years. 

Andretti Autosport hasn't won an oval race since Pocono 2018. Ed Carpenter Racing has not won an oval race since Iowa 2016. Dale Coyne Racing's only oval victory was at Texas in 2012. A.J. Foyt Racing hasn't won on an oval since Kansas 2002. Juncos Hollinger Racing is still looking for its first victory in IndyCar regardless of track discipline. 

One of these streaks end in 2024, and notice how I worded this. If Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing does not win any of the first four oval races in 2024, it will enter the Milwaukee doubleheader over August 31 and September 1 having not won on an oval since August 23, 2020 at the Indianapolis 500. That means even RLLR could fulfill this prediction!  

12. Ed Carpenter Racing will fail to put a driver in the top fifteen of the championship

I hate to end on a downer, but let's be honest, Ed Carpenter Racing is bound to get bounced down the grid. 

ECR had four top ten finishes all season. The 2023 season was the first time the team has ever failed to score a podium finish or a top five finish in a single season. Even at Indianapolis, the one race the team puts more emphasis on the any other, it wasn't that close to challenging for victory. Yes, Rinus VeeKay started second and led 24 laps before careening into Álex Palou on pit lane, resulting in a penalty for the Dutchman that kept him from doing any better than finishing tenth, but Conor Daly qualified 16th and ended up eighth, and Ed Carpenter wasn't really close at all and ended up 20th after being in a late accident. 

Since 2015, ECR has had at least one driver finish in the top fifteen of the championship in every season. With Ganassi up to five cars, of which four drivers have a realistic shot of being in the top ten of the championship, three Penske cars, three Andretti cars, a rejuvenated three-car RLLR lineup, three McLarens and JHR with a driver that constantly finishes 13th in the championship, where will ECR end up?

That is 17 strong cars. VeeKay has finished 14th, 12th, 12th and 14th in his first four IndyCar seasons, but it doesn't feel like ECR is at the same place as it was back in 2021 when he won his first career race and had six top ten finishes in the first eight races of that season. 

We could also be looking at a bolstered A.J. Foyt Racing, Dale Coyne Racing isn't a stranger to the top fifteen in the championship and if Meyer Shank Racing is all-in on IndyCar with no sports car program, it easily could put Felix Rosenqvist in the top fifteen of the championship. 

The order of IndyCar teams is going to move again at the bottom half of the table. It feels like ECR is destined to take a dive. 

That's it for predictions! That's it for 2023! You have NASCAR, Formula One, sports cars and motorcycle predictions to chew on. The New Year will be here in a few days and we will be turn our attention to the new seasons that are closer than they appear. Until then, Happy New Year and enjoy these final days of the holiday period. 

2024 Motorcycle Predictions

The motorcycle world always has something exciting it brings to the table, whether it be on pavement or on dirt, on famed circuits or in highly modern stadiums. More exciting things are to come in multiple championships across multiple disciplines. Champions are changing teams, some are changing while being title-holders. Thrilling rookies are going to step up to the highest levels and will be poised to make their first steps toward greatness. There is plenty to watch in 2024. 

MotoGP

1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix

One of the most notable occurrences from the 2023 MotoGP season was the lack of a consecutive race winner. It was the first time no rider won consecutive races in the top class since the inaugural season of the world championship in 1949, which only had six races. 

If it was the first time something has happened in 74 years, it likely will not happen a second consecutive year, but once is not going to be good enough to fulfill this prediction. We aren't going to have just one instance of a rider winning consecutive races. We are going to have at least three occasions when it happens. There are enough talented riders for it to happen. We could have it happen ten times in 2024 and no on would be surprised. 

2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship

I know last year I said Márquez would finish in the top five of the championship, and we all know how that played out. But this year has to be different, right? Right?

Gone from Honda, onto Ducati, even if it is a year-old bike which just so happens to have just won the world championship, Márquez starts a pivotal second act in his career. The machine is no longer the question mark. It is down to Márquez. Does he still have it and can he keep himself from going over the edge? If he is seeing the checkered flag you must believe he will get results, but it will not be easy. 

Francesco Bagnaia is not going anywhere. Jorge Martín put up a championship push and found success in the sprint races. Marco Bezzecchi looked ready for a title fight for the first half of the season. Fabio Di Giannantonio was coming on strong at the end of 2023. Ducati will have Enea Bastiannini looking for a mulligan after injuries last season, and Franco Morbidelli, another rider looking to revive his career. 

Márquez could have a great season and still not be the best Ducati rider. In that case, he could still be in the top three or five of the championship. Moving to Ducati will to see a repeat of 2013 or 2019, but it should make Márquez a factor again.

3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified

It felt like the 2023 season saw many days of high attrition. Some (Fabio Quartararo) believed that was down to the sprint races and the increase in competition. Those beliefs might be true.

Last season, there were six grand prix where riders were unclassified in points-paying positions at the end of grand prix and earned no reward for their Sunday efforts. That was over a quarter of the races in 2023. The fewest classified runners was 13. 

However, we will see a complete reverse in 2024. Twenty-two grand prix, 330 points-paying positions accounted for. Mark it here.

4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019

Acosta won the Moto3 championship as a rookie at 18 years old and he won the Moto2 championship in his second season in the competition at 20 years old. He turns 21 during the 2024 season, which will be his rookie MotoGP campaign riding for KTM for GasGas Tech3. 

KTM had a good season in 2023. Brad Binder had great consistency while Jack Miller had flashes and accidents that canceled out his better performances. GasGas Tech3 was the worst team in the championship though Augusto Fernández did have a fourth at the French Grand Prix. 

Tech3 hasn't finished better than 11th in the teams' championship the last three years, but it is bound to get off the mat, and Acosta will help. Not only do I think Acosta will help, but I think he will have some rather remarkable results. He isn't going to win the championship, even a grand prix victory feels like a stretch, but scoring points is something he should do.

In the previous four seasons, the best rookie finisher in those seasons have been 11th, ninth, 14th and 17th. For this prediction to be correct, Acosta would have to finish eighth. It is asking a lot, but don't be surprised if it happens. 

5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season

This has been a low point for Honda and Yamaha in MotoGP. Honda lost arguably its greatest rider. Yamaha's current best rider is looking for a way out. The two manufacturers' combined for one victory in 2023. Yamaha was fourth and Honda was fifth in the manufacturers' championship. The best of their six full-time riders ended up tenth in the riders' championship. 

It was dismal.

It must get better. 

MotoGP cannot really afford for it to be much worse. 

How does an optimist look at it?

In 2023, Honda and Yamaha combined for five podium finishes. Five podium finishes is nothing! In 2024, these two makes will have at least six podium finishes in the first 11 races. It will be a heartwarming story of the season.

6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second

While it feels like MotoGP and Moto3 (definitely Moto3), frequently have grandstand finishes and we need the cameras to determine the winners, Moto2 does not have as many of those finishes. Sometimes, Moto2 is a good reset between a Moto3 and a MotoGP event. It lowers the bar for MotoGP so the main event isn't following two hair-raisers. However, it does make Moto2 the literal middle child. 

Last season, only four Moto2 races were decided by less than a second. Moto2 has not had a finish decided by less than a tenth of a second since the 2022 British Grand Prix, 29 races ago. That will change in 2024. At least one race goes to the wire that keeps everyone holding their breath through the checkered flag.

7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races

Leopard Racing has been one of the best teams in Moto3. It has won four of the last nine Moto3 championships and it has put a rider in the top five of the championship in eight of the last nine seasons. It is also known for winning races. 

In six of the last nine seasons, Leopard Racing has won at least four races in a season. You might be thinking that this prediction is a slam dunk then. However, Leopard has an entirely new lineup. Jaume Masiá is moving to Moto2 after winning the 2023 Moto3 title. Tatsuki Suzuki suffered an injury and left the team midseason in 2023. 

Entering the team will be Adrián Fernández, who did run six races in replacement for Suzuki, and Ángel Piqueras, who won the FIM JuniorGP World Championship and the Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup championship in 2023. 

It is an unproven team, but there should be some encouragement and Leopard Racing finds it way on top.

8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium

Last year in MotoE, there were three races that had all-Italian podiums. 

The first Mugello race (Andrea Mantovani, Matteo Ferrari and Mattia Casadei).

The second Austria race (Casadei, Ferrari and Kevin Zannoni).

The second Barcelona race (Casadei, Mantovani and Nicholas Spinelli).

Italy was the only country to have a podium sweep in 2023.

What happens in 2024? 

Spain will have a podium sweep of its own. 

At time of writing, 12 of 14 announced riders for the 2024 MotoE season are either Italian or Spanish, eight to four respectively.

Spain has never swept a MotoE podium. That will change in 2024.

World Superbike

9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.

Rea is changing outfits for 2024. Off is the Kawasaki green, on is the Yamaha blue as Rea will be riding something other than a Kawasaki for the first time since he competed with Honda in the 2014 season.

Rea and Kawasaki lost their stranglehold on World Superbike in the last few seasons, but they still remained a clear number three in the championship. He only won one race, but he was on the podium in 18 of 36 races this past season. 

Yamaha won seven times in 2023, all with Toprak Razgatlioglu, who will leave Yamaha for BMW in 2024. Razgatlioglu had 20 runner-up finishes last year. Rea had five runner-up finishes. That means of Rea's 18 podium finishes, 12 were third-place finishes. 

Álvaro Bautista will still be on a Ducati. Good luck to everyone. With Razgatlioglu moving away from Yamaha and Rea joining the team, it will not be as simple as Rea simply replicating Razgatlioglu's results, but Rea should have more races challenging Bautista or at least being the clear second-place rider. 

A dozen times finishing in any one position is quite something. Rea will have his share of third-place finishes, but I don't think they will be greater than his number of victories or second-place finishes.

10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024

Here is the list of riders to win consecutive races in the 2023 World Superbike season:

Álvaro Bautista

Toprak Razgatlioglu

That's it. That is the list. 

Bautista had four instances of winning consecutive races: The first four races of the season, ten races from the second Indonesia race through the first race at Donington Park, race two from Donington Park and the first Imola race, and Bautista won the final eight races to close out the season. 

Razgatlioglu won the SuperPole race and race two from Imola, and he won race one and the SuperPole race from Many-Cours. 

The obvious difference will be Jonathan Rea winning consecutive races at least once now that he is on a Yamaha. Where does the other rider come from?

Bautista cannot keep hogging all the victories for Ducati, and perhaps the 2023 World Supersport champion Nicolò Bulega can have a sensational weekend. Michael Ruben Rinaldi, the only other winner from 2023, is still on a Ducati. 

Andrea Locatelli will be Rea's teammate at Yamaha. While Razgatlioglu's exit should open up chances for Rea, it will also create opportunities for Locatelli, who continues to search for his first career World Superbike victory.

If BMW hits on something, maybe Michael van der Mark also benefits and gets some victories for himself. It could be a surprise, like Andrea Iannone, who returns to competition after serving a four-year ban for doping on a customer Ducati. 

Let's see how it plays out.

Supercross/Motocross

11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds

Lawrence's 2023 season will be remembered for a 250cc West Supercross championship, a perfect 450cc Motocross championship and winning the inaugural 450cc SuperMotocross championship. This has all the makings of the start of a promising career. 

However, even the greatest careers see some rough patches, and for how easy Lawrence made it look in 2023, he is going to face stout competition and have some tussles on his hands this season. 

There should be a healthy Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton has moved to KTM, Cooper Webb is back on a Yamaha, Ken Roczen is still around, Jason Anderson is still around, Justin Barcia is good for a victory a season, Malcolm Stewart is still looking for his first Supercross victory, oh, and Jett's brother Hunter Lawrence will be his teammate at Honda. 

Jett Lawrence has not had a losing streak of five consecutive rounds since a six-race stretch during the 2021 250cc Motocross season. This prediction is counting all rounds across the Supercross, Motocross and SuperMotocross seasons, but if Lawrence is missing any extended period of time due to injuries I will not count those.

There is a good chance Lawrence is still going to have great seasons and win multiple championships, but competition is going to be high.

12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds

Speaking to the depth of Supercross, there are at least a dozen riders you can envision winning around this season. They aren't all going to win races, but it feels like at least six riders are going to win a race. When looking over recent Supercross seasons, the top three riders in the championship typically have the lion's share of the race victories.

That shouldn't be a surprise. If I went back through every Supercross season that would likely be the case, but something caught my eye. 

The last time riders that finished outside the top three in the championship combined for at least four victories was 2015. Ken Roczen won two of the first three races and then was knocked out after nine races due to an ankle injury. Trey Canard won twice and then was knocked out after suffering a broken arm in the 12th round in Detroit. Chad Reed also won that year at Atlanta and finished fourth in the championship after being disqualified from the second Anaheim event and withdrawing from the Meadowlands round prior to the heat races. 

Unfortunately, injury is one of the ways this prediction becomes true, but let's be optimistic and we see one of the most competitive Supercross seasons to date where seven riders win a race, three of which are surprises after running just outside the top five for much of the season and then fourth wins twice but somebody has to finish fourth and he just isn't good enough to crack the top three. That would be five victories right there. 

It feels practical for 2024.

And then there was one set of predictions remaining. NASCAR, Formula One, sport cars and now motorcycles are complete. We end the year as we always do with IndyCar. 

2024 Sports Car Predictions

We continue our end-of-year predictions and move into the sports car realm. The thrilling period for sports car competition writes a new chapter in 2024. More manufacturers are coming. New races are coming. There will be new regulations in a few championships, new class structures. For all that was new in 2023, there was much that was the same as it ever was. However, with another year, things are bound to be shaken up eventually. There is a good chance it will be 2024.

FIA World Endurance Championships

1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes

The 2023 season might have seen the inclusion of the LMDh cars and the expansion of the Hypercar class, but it was rather one-sided.

Toyota took 11 of a possible 21 podium finishes. As a two-car team, it went 11 for 14. Ferrari took six podium finishes, Porsche had two, Cadillac and Peugeot each had one. 

Cadillac had a good start to the season before have a tough close. Porsche didn't quite show great speed, however it could have picked up another podium result last year with a few things going its way. 

With another year of development and who knows how the Balance of Performance will go, but we should see some more variety on the podium this season. Also, Porsche will have power in numbers. There will be five Porsches on the grid. BMW is joining the championship with a two-car effort, as is Alpine, and Lamborghini will have a car entered. 

Of course, all of these manufacturers could take podium finishes off each other and we could end up with four with two podium finishes apiece. 

2. At least four drivers get their first overall WEC victory

A bigger Hypercar class means many drivers who have not competed at the top level before and have not won overall before. 

One of the Ferraris didn't win last year, and, if that lineup does not change for 2024, none of Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina nor Nicklas Nielsen have won overall before. That could be three drivers right there. There will also be the third Ferrari that Robert Kubica will lead with Ye Yifei as a likely driver in that entry. Neither of those two have won overall before. 

We are missing the changes at Toyota with Nyck de Vries becoming a new driver in the #7 Toyota. De Vries does not have an overall victory. One victory for the #7 Toyota and the #50 Ferrari will fulfill this prediction. 

With all the Porsches in Hypercar, there are a slew of drivers that have never won overall in WEC. One Porsche victory can likely take care of 75% of this prediction. Maybe I should make it higher? You know what? That is what I will do...

At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory

Take that!

3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more

To be clear, this isn't manufacturer nor race team, this is specific cars, and with 18 cars from nine manufacturers, single-car dominance is tougher to imagine. 

In 2023, only one entry in GTE-AM had four podium finishes or more. That was the championship-winning #33 Corvette, which had five podium finishes. That was a class with 14 full-time cars with four manufacturers. 

There are plenty of capable entries in this class. Corvette remains in the class with TF Sport. Proton Competition is running two Ford Mustangs. AF Corse is still around with Ferrari. Team WRT is fielding a a pair of BMWs. Manthey Racing has two Porsches in its stable. Iron Lynx/Dames brings Lamborghini to the series, as does United Autosports with McLarens, Akkodis ASP Team is responsible for the Lexus entries and Aston Martin is split between Heart of Racing and D'station Racing.

They are all going to see some success at some point during the 2024 season. If one stands above the rest, it will clearly deserve the championship.

4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company

With the new rules in WEC and GT3 entries getting priority based on Hypercar participation, six companies have entries in both classes. It is likely we will see one celebrating a double victory in WEC this season. 

We know Toyota can win. Lexus is the question mark, but Akkodis ASP Team has been highly successful in the GT World Challenge Europe series and Lexus smashed the competition in IMSA. Ferrari is Ferrari. No one would be surprised there. The same can be said with Porsche. 

On the flip side of Toyota, we know Corvette can win, but Cadillac is the question mark in Hypercar. 

BMW and Lamborghini are the other two who could do this. 

It will definitely happen once, but I will double down and say it will happen twice. 

IMSA

5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship

I am sure I have written about the before, but do you know García's championship positions since he joined Corvette Racing as a full-time driver in 2012?

Third

First

Third

Third

Third

First

First

Third

First

First

Third 

Third

García has not finished something other than first or third in a championship as a full-time driver since 2011 when he was seventh in the Daytona Prototype class in Grand-Am.

It has been a 12-year streak. Nothing lasts forever. It probably shouldn't have made it to 2024. García and Jordan Taylor entered the 2023 season finale at Petit Le Mans second in the GTD Pro championship only to have the duos worst finish of the season while WeatherTech Racing won to jump up to second. 

Corvette is going to be competitive, but that doesn't mean García will be first or third again. He will have Alexander Sims as his new co-driver after Jordan Taylor left for Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti’s Acura GTP program. 

6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA

This is a cross-series prediction because there will be substantial crossover between WEC and IMSA in 2024, as there always is, but for 2024 it feels like there will be even greater crossover. 

Who will be running both?

There will be over two dozen drivers set to run in WEC this year, who will be running at the 24 Hours of Daytona. This includes a number of drivers who will be running multiple times in both series, a few of which will attempt to run the full season in each. 

Between drivers running in both Hypercar and as endurance drivers in IMSA or drivers planning to run in GT categories in both series, there is bound to be a few drivers that see success in each championship. With the sheer number of drivers crossing over, three feels likely. 

How many drivers won in both series last year? 

Ben Keating

Nicolás Varrone

That's it. That's the list, and they just so happened to be co-drivers in WEC. Keating won in LMP2 in IMSA and Varrone was a member of the 2023 LMP3 winning entry at the 24 Hours of Daytona.

7. The Riley Motorsports LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5

The LMP3-era of IMSA's top class should be remembered as the Riley era. Riley Motorsports won 12 of 21 races in the LMP3 class and stood on the podium 16 times in the class' three-year run. In 2023, Riley Motorsports had an average finish of 2.57, which was inflated with a ninth in the 24 Hours of Daytona, which technically didn't count toward the LMP3 championship. Count only the championship races and Riley's average was 1.5. 

Not bad, but not as good as its 1.57 average over the entire 2021 season and 1.667 over the six championship races. 

With LMP3 gone, Riley has moved to LMP2 and will field an Oreca for Gar Robinson and Felipe Fraga. It has been a good combination in LMP3 competition, but with a larger and deeper class in LMP2, I don't think Riley will repeat its dominance. It should still be competitive but not averaging better than a second-place finish. Averaging a podium finish will be a mighty task as well.

8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory

Last year, in the GTP class, the pole-sitter won three times (Daytona, Sebring and Mosport).

In LMP2, the pole-sitter won zero times.

In LMP3, the pole-sitter won twice (Watkins Glen and Mosport).

In GTD Pro, the pole-sitter won four times (Daytona, Long Beach, Lime Rock Park and Road America).

In GTD, the pole-sitter won twice (Road America and Virginia International Raceway). 

Last season, there were multiple class winners from pole position in three races, but never more than two class winners from pole position in a race. 

In case you are wondering when was the last time three classes had a pole-sitter win in the same race, it has not happened since the American Le Mans Series and Grand-Am merged in 2014.

European Le Mans Series

9. The #22 United Autosports entry does no extends its winning streak

United Autosports has been a regular winner in the European Le Mans Series, but more specifically, its #22 entry has been a regular winner. How regular? The #22 United Autosport entry has won a race overall in ELMS for six consecutive seasons. United Autosports has won a race in seven consecutive seasons. 

No other entry has a multi-year winning streak entering the 2024 season over than the #22 United Autosports entry.

However, United Autosports will have three entries in ELMS this year. The LMP2 class in ELMS will have 22 entries this season. Nothing lasts forever, and there is greater strength in this class than previous season. Ben Hanley will lead the #22 United entry alongside Marino Sato, who returns to ELMS for a second consecutive season. Filip Ugran moves over from Prema Racing. It could surely win a race, but it could conceivably not happen.

10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers

For the last three consecutive seasons, there has been at least one winner in the GTE class that had multiple Italian drivers.

Last year, the all-Italian trio of Matteo Cressoni, Matteo Cairoli and Claudio Schiavoni won at Spa-Francorchamps with Iron Lynx. Iron Lynx also had an all-Italian winning lineup in 2022 with Cressoni, Schiavoni and Davide Rigon. Gianmaria Bruni and Lorenzo Ferrari also won that year at Barcelona with Proton Competition and Christian Ried. Half of the GTE races in 2021 had multiple Italian drivers in the winning team. 

There will be a few close calls, but it will not happen in 2024.

Other

11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours

GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup will have a five-race season in 2024. The second round will be the Spa 24 Hours. 

Spa-Francorchamps traditionally awards more points than any other GTWCEEC race, as points are awarded to the top nine at the quarter-mark and halfway point of the race. If you do well in the Spa 24 Hours, it will bode well for your championship. 

How well?

The GTWCEEC champion has been a top five finisher in the Spa 24 Hours in four consecutive seasons, the last three of which has seen the eventual champions finish on the Spa podium. 

The last time the champion was not in the top five at Spa-Francorchamps was 2019 when the #563 Orange1 FFF Racing Team Lamborghini ended up eighth. Orange1 FFF Racing Team won the Barcelona finale and had podium results in two other races. 

No trend lasts forever and we are due for a break.

12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races

With the proliferation of GT3 cars across many different championship, we are seeing a greater number of manufacturer participation in some series that otherwise had few brands competing. DTM was one of those series and after long being just Audi and Mercedes-Benz, and then just Audi and BMW, with a brief moment of Aston Martin entered, it has flourished with GT3 regulations. 

Six manufacturers competed in DTM this year. All six won a race at some point, but there were three occasions where five manufacturers won in five consecutive races.

The season started with five different winning brands in five races: Lamborghini, Porsche, Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW.

From race three to race seven, there were five different winning manufacturers in five races: Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW, Porsche, Lamborghini. 

It then happened again from race 11 to race 15: Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Porsche. 

With GT3 expanding to WEC and ELMS, it will change the composition of some of the existing GT3 series, DTM included. Honda will be in the series, but I don't think we will see the same makeup of winners, at least not as we saw it in DTM in 2023.

We are beyond the halfway point in predictions. NASCAR and Formula One are done. Two more to go, and next are predictions of the two-wheel variety.