2016 Sepang 12 Hours Preview

This weekend's Sepang 12 Hours marks the 17th running of the endurance race and this year's edition marks the third and final round of the Intercontinental GT Challenge.

Thirteen of the twenty-car cars entered for the race belong to the GT3 class. Audi won last year's race with Belgian Audi Club Team WRT and this year Audi is represented by two Team Phoenix entries. Laurens Vanthoor is the only returning driver from last year's winning driver combination and he will head the #15 Audi with Christopher Haase and Robin Frijns joining him as co-drivers. Haase won the 2010 Sepang 12 Hours with Peter Kox and Tunku Hamman in the Arrows Racing Lamborghini. Vanthoor also leads the drivers' championship with 33 points and looks to bookend his 2016 season with another endurance race victory after winning the Dubai 24 Hour in January. This will be Laurens Vanthoor's final race with Audi as he will move to Porsche for its IMSA GTLM program in 2017.

René Rast, Markus Winkelhock and Pierre Kaffer will drive the #16 Audi. Rast started his season with a victory at the 24 Hours of Daytona in the GTD class with Magnus Racing and he is coming off his first class victory in the FIA World Endurance Championship after he won in LMP2 at Bahrain with G-Drive Racing. Winkelhock and Kaffer both haven't won since 2014. Winkelhock's most recent victory was the 2014 24 Hours of Spa with Vanthoor and Rast as co-drivers. Kaffer's most recent victory was at Virginia International Raceway in GTLM was Risi Competizione Ferrari. 

Bentley leads the Intercontinental GT Challenge manufactures' championship with 51 points; two over Mercedes-Benz but Bentley has not entered a car for the finale. The lone Mercedes-Benz entered for Sepang is the #52 SAITAMA TOYOPET Green Bravo SLS AMG with former IndyCar driver Naoki Hattori leading the PRO-AM line-up with Taku Bamba, Takayuki Hiranuma and Shogo Matsuyama. With Mercedes as the de facto leader in manufactures' championship, Audi trails the fellow German mark by four points and McLaren is 15 points behind Mercedes-Benz. 

K-PAX Racing will be the lone McLaren on the grid and the #9 650 S GT3 will feature Pirelli World Challenge champion Álvaro Parente; Supercars and Blancpain Endurance Series champion Shane Van Gisbergen and Blancpain Endurance Series champion Côme Ledogar. Parente and Van Gisbergen won the Bathurst 12 Hour with Jonathon Webb, the first round of the International GT Challenge in February. Van Gisbergen trails Vanthoor by six points in the drivers' championship. 

Five Ferraris are entered at Sepang with the #50 Spirit of Race 488 GT3 of Michele Rugolo, Alessandro Pier Guidi and Pasin Lathouras leading the prancing horses and is the only all-pro line-up. Asian Le Mans Series regular Nexus Infinity will have Adrian Henry D'Silva, two-time Sepang 12 Hours winner Dominic Ang Ding Xiong and Garnett Patterson in the #27 458 GT3. Carlo van Dam, Frank Yu, Piti Bhirom Bhakti and Tanart Sathienthirakul will drive the #11 Singha Motorsports Team Ferrari 488 GT3. Super GT driver Hiroki Yoshimoto leads the #35 HubAuto Racing Ferrari 488 GT3 with Morris Chen, Shinya Hosokawa and Hiroki Yoshida rounding out the line-up. The only AM entry in GT3 is the #75 T2 Motorsport Ferrari 488 GT3 of Gregory Teo Bee Tat, David Tjiptobiantoro and Christian Colombo. 

Manthey Racing comes with two Porsche 911 GT3Rs. Le Mans winners and future full-time Porsche LMP1 drivers Nick Tandy and Earl Bamber join Patrick Pilet in the #911 Porsche. Frédéric Makowiecki, Richard Leitz and Michael Chistensen will drive the #912 Porsche. Porsche leads all manufactures with four victories in the Sepang 12 Hours but has not won the event since 2008. 

The final two GT3 entries are full-time Super GT entries in the GT300 class. JLOC entered the #88 Lamborghini Huracán GT3 for Manabu Orido, Kazuki Hiramine and Adrian Zaugg. The final entry is the #30 APR Toyota Prius for Koki Saga, Kota Sasaki and Hiroaki Nagai. APR won once in Super GT this season and Saga finished second in the GT300 championship with co-driver Yuichi Nakayama 

The remainder of the Sepang 12 Hours entry list is composed of three GT4 entries, four GTC, four touring cars and two MARC Focus V8s.

The Sepang 12 Hours will begin at 11:00 p.m. ET on Friday December 9th. 

Over/Unders
1. Over or Under: 3.5 retirements at the Sepang 12 Hours?

Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Under: Michael Caruso scored 129 points at Homebush.
2. Over: Two LMP3 cars finished on the lead lap in class at Fuji.
3. Over: 33 drivers completed 600 laps or more at the 25 Hours of Thunderhill.
4. Under: Three Americans were mentioned in the Racer.com story on the Mazda Road to Indy Shootout.

Predictions
1. The #30 APR Toyota Prius finishes in the top eight overall.

Last Week's Predictions 
1. Someone other than Shane Van Gisbergen and Jamie Whincup will win at Homebush (Wrong. Whincup won race one from Homebush and Van Gisbergen won race two).
2. There will be at least four European drivers represented in the three class winners (Correct. Nine European drivers were represented across LMP2, LMP3 and GT at Fuji.).
3. The Ryno Racing Ginetta finishes in the top five overall (Correct. Both Ryno Racing Ginetta finished in the top five overall).
4. A driver between the ages of 18 and 19 win the Mazda Road to Indy Shootout (Correct. Nineteen-year-old Oliver Askew won the Mazda Road to Indy Shootout).
Last Week: 3/4 Overall: 28.5/53

2016 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

There are a handful of major races remaining on the calendar year and two notable races remaining are the Sepang 12 Hours and Gulf 12 Hours. Despite these two sports car races remaining, we can look back on predictions made for sports cars this season.

1. FIA WEC: All Three LMP1 Manufactures Score Over 200 Points
Correct! Porsche won the World Endurance Manufactures' Championship with 324 points while Audi finished second with 266 points in its final season in LMP1 and Toyota rounded out the top three on 229 points. It is not surprising Porsche won the title considering it won six of nine races, although what is surprising is Porsche didn't put two cars on the podium once all season. Audi's final season was arguably its toughest season but despite all there troubles and losing a victory after being excluded after Silverstone, Audi still finished ahead of Toyota, which had a much better season than 2015.

2. Ferrari Locks Up A GTE Title Before Bahrain
Wrong but it couldn't have been much closer! The #83 AF Corse Ferrari held a 25-point entering the season finale at Bahrain and all the team had to do was complete 70% of the race to be classified to win the GTE-Am championship.

3. IMSA: A Race Victory Falls Into Ligier's Lap
Correct! But it didn't really fall into Ligier's lap; they earned those victories, all four of them. Extreme Speed Motorsports was the best car at the 24 Hours of Daytona and Pipo Derani dazzled everyone at Sebring with a pair of daring passes to get the #2 Ligier to the lead. Then Michael Shank Racing won at Laguna Seca and closed the season with a dominating victory at Petit Le Mans with Extreme Speed Motorsports making it a Ligier 1-2 finish.

4. BMW Wins At Least Seven Race Between the Two GT Classes
Wrong! I got this one massively wrong. The Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing BMWs were shutout in the win column in 2016 and the Turner Motorsport BMWs only won twice in GTD. I thought the RLLR BMWs would win three or four races and have one car contending for the title and I thought Turner would do the same considering how strong their driver line-ups were.

5. Pirelli World Challenge: Patrick Long Finishes in the Top Two of the Championship
Correct! To be honest, when Patrick Long announced he was going to be competing full-time in Pirelli World Challenge for EFFORT Racing Porsche, I thought he was going to win the championship but knowing that Johnny O'Connell had made it habit of winning the PWC title, I left a little wiggle room and I am glad I did because Long finished second in the championship but had he settled for second in the finale at Laguna Seca and not tried to pass O'Connell for the lead on the final lap he would have won the title. He didn't, he went off the road and Álvaro Parente went on by to win the title for K-PAX Racing McLaren. But considering EFFORT Racing pulled out of PWC midseason and Long had to move to Wright Racing, second in the championship is very impressive considering his season nearly ended before the month of May.

6. Four Different Manufactures Are Represented in the Top Five of GTS
Correct! And it was actually five different manufactures represented in the top five of GTS. KTM's Brett Sandberg finished ahead of Ford's Nate Stacy, Chevrolet's Lawson Aschenbach, Ginetta's Parker Chase and SIN's Scott Heckert. Let me also mention that in sixth was Lotus driver Scott Dollahite and in seventh was Maserati's Mark Klenin.

7. Blancpain GT: Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Wins a Specific Championship
Correct! Enzo Ide won the Blancpain Sprint Series title in the #33 Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Audi after winning four races and seven podium finishes from ten races.

8. The Average Grid Size for Blancpain Sprint Series Will Be Above 20 Entries
Correct! The average Blancpain Sprint Series grid was 36 cars in 2016.

9. European Le Mans Series: Jota Sport Scores Fewer Podiums Than in 2015
Wrong! Technically, Jota Sport didn't compete in the European Le Mans Series in 2016 but technically it did as it competed under the G-Drive Racing banner after the two teams formed a partnership. The #38 Gibson-Nissan finished on the podium four times in six races, won the bookends of the calendar and the team took the championship after it had eluded the team the last few seasons. The trio of Simon Dolan, Harry Tincknell and Giedo van der Garde were stellar and deserved the title.

10. The Average LMP3 Grid Exceeds Eight Entries
Correct! The LMP3 grid ballooned to an average of 19.1667 entries per race. The smallest LMP3 grid was 17 at the Estoril finale. In fact, there were 17 entries that ran all six rounds. LMP3 has become a great success although I wonder how the grid will fair next season with LMP3 cars being allowed to compete full-time in the Michelin Le Mans Cup and the 24H Proto Series. There could be a slight dip but I still expect more than a dozen LMP3 in ELMS next year.

11. Asian Le Mans Series: Ferrari Will Not Be Shut Out From Another GT Podium
Wrong! While the #27 Nexus Infinity Ferrari won at Buriram, Ferrari was shutout of the podium at the final race of the 2015-16 season at Sepang where the #5 Absolute Racing Audi took the victory ahead of the #91 Team AAI BMW and the #3 Clearwater Racing McLaren with the #27 Ferrari finishing fourth.

12. There Will be At Least One Race Where the LMP3 Winner Finishes Ahead of the GT Winner
Correct! In January at Buriram, the #1 DC Racing Ligier-Nissan won in LMP3 and finished ahead of the GT winning #27 Nexus Infinity Ferrari and in the 2015-16 season finale at Sepang, the #1 DC Racing Ligier-Nissan won again and finished ahead of the GT winning #5 Absolute Racing Audi.

Another set of predictions and another eight for 12 showing. Don't forget to check out the other revisited predictions for IndyCar, NASCAR and Formula One.

Musings From the Weekend: What to Expect From the Locals?

Nico Rosberg retired! And everybody is applying to join Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes. NASCAR had an award show. Takuma Sato was confirmed at Andretti Autosport. And there was actual racing! A champion was crowned in style. There was an LMP3-GT battle that lasted 25 hours. There was a slightly shorter endurance race in Japan. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

What to Expect From the Locals?
Almost a month ago, I stated my astonishment in the Americans signed up for full-time IndyCar competition in 2017. You have the usual suspects of Ryan Hunter-Reay, Graham Rahal, Marco Andretti, Charlie Kimball and Josef Newgarden all returning. Young studs such as Alexander Rossi and Conor Daly returning for their second full-time years and J.R. Hildebrand returning to full-time competition after three years of part-time rides.

John Lingle, author of the Hard Luck Lloyd, commented that they have to win. He isn't wrong. The grid could be 90% American but if they can't win and be competitive it doesn't really matter. I thought about looking back to the so called glory days of CART just to see how many Americans were competing, how much Americans were winning and contending for championships. Of course, Americans were pretty much the only drivers in town for the 1960s, 1970s and most of the 1980s. Emerson Fittipaldi's entrance to IndyCar could be argued as the moment the IndyCar door opened to international drivers (Or Teo Fabi. Maybe we should give Teo Fabi the love considering he finished second in the 1983 CART championship and the following year Fittipaldi, Roberto Guerrero and Arie Luyendyk all made their IndyCar debuts but I digress).

Throughout the late-1980s, you had Fittipaldi win a few races a year but majority of the race winners were still Americans. Even in 1990 Americans won 14 of 16 races with the exceptions being Luyendyk at Indianapolis and Fittipaldi at Nazareth.

I decided to look back at the previous 25 years because it encompasses the years prior to the split, the split and reunification. I also looked at drivers who you could classify as being a regular driver. To be classified as finishing the 24 Hours of Le Mans a car must complete 70% of the winner's distance. In this case, a driver who runs at least 70% of the races will be considered a regular.

I thought about writing a synopsis for the last 25 years in IndyCar, which would be covering 38 seasons thanks to the split but that would be very lengthy so here is a chart instead.

What I will write is that since 1992, an average of 4.405 races have been won by Americans in a season with a median of four. The average amount of American drivers to win in a season is 2.675 with a median of two. The average amount of American drivers in the top ten of the championship is 3.783 with a median of three. The average amount of regular American drivers is 7.75 with a median of eighth.

With eight American drivers confirmed as regulars in 2017, it would be the most regular Americans on the grid since reunification. The last season to see eight regular Americans was the 2007 IRL season and while four Americans finished in the top ten of the championship, only one finished in the top five of the championship (Sam Hornish, Jr. in fifth) and Hornish, Jr. was the only American to win that year with his lone victory being at Texas.

I think the more important thing is to look at is where IndyCar has been the last few seasons. IndyCar has had multiple American winners each of the last six seasons. Since 2011, American drivers have won at least three races a year with 2015 being the high point at six victories. While six doesn't sound like much when you consider the schedule has ranged from 15 to 19 races in that timeframe and at the end of CART's formidable years, Americans would win one to three times in a 20-race season.

Another note that should be made is that some years when Americans dominated, the success came at the hands of one or two drivers. Take the 1994 season where Americans won 10 of 16 races but Al Unser, Jr. won eight of those, including the Indianapolis 500, on his way to the championship that season. Michael Andretti won the other two races. Of course there was the 2001 IRL season where seven Americans were responsible for winning 12 of the 13 races that season. The one not won by an American was the Indianapolis 500, won by the full-time CART driver Hélio Castroneves. That year in CART Michael Andretti's win at Toronto was the only time an American stood on the top step of the podium and he was the only American of four regulars to finish in the top ten of the championship.

I have dug through all this because I am curious, what does the IndyCar fan base want from the American drivers? If Charlie Kimball went out in 2017, won six races including the Indianapolis 500 and won the championship but he was the only American winner and one of two American in the top ten and the other was Ryan Hunter-Reay in ninth, would that be good enough? If six different Americans won one race in 2017 and one of them won the Indianapolis 500 but only three finished in the top ten of the championship and the best ended up in sixth, would that be good enough?

There is hope that American success will rejuvenate the image of IndyCar and bring fans back to the TV set, computer screen, tablet or through the gates and IndyCar can have a sliver of the relevance the series once had. IndyCar won't return to the days of USAC where Americans were pretty much the only drivers on the grid and it isn't likely that Americans sweep the top four in championship and take eight of the top ten but in recent years the current crop of American drivers has been holding their own to the precedent set over the last two and a half decades.

To some, Americans locking up the championship and the Indianapolis 500 should be yearly occurrence but there is nothing wrong with Josef Newgarden, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Graham Rahal winning at Barber, Iowa, Mid-Ohio and Pocono.

The 2017 crop of American drivers is very talented. Hunter-Reay and Rossi are Indianapolis 500 winners and Hunter-Reay has a championship. Newgarden is entering his prime as he moves to Penske and coming off consecutive career-best seasons. Rahal has been in the top five of the championship the last two years. Hildebrand returns after a few years away but him, Daly and Rossi have all driven Formula One cars in recent memory. Kimball is a consistent driver. Andretti isn't his grandfather or father but you wouldn't rule him out to win the Indianapolis 500 and it wasn't that long ago that he finished in the top five of the championship. Not to mention the likes of Sage Karam, Spencer Pigot and RC Enerson are all on the sidelines, under the age of 24 and have shown promise in their handfuls of IndyCar starts.

IndyCar doesn't have to worry about not having any Americans on the grid any time soon and from what we have seen already, it won't have to worry about if the Americans can be competitive.

Champions From the Weekend
Shane Van Gisbergen clinched his first Supercars championship with a third-place finish in race one from the Homebush Street Circuit. He capped off his championship weekend by winning the second race on Sunday.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Shane Van Gisbergen but did you know...

Jamie Whincup won the first race of the Supercars weekend at Homebush Street Circuit.

The #8 Race Performance Oreca-Judd of Struan Moore, Giorgio Maggi and Fabian Schiller won the 4 Hours of Fuji. The #26 Tockwith Motorsports Ligier-Nissan of Nigel Moore and Philip Hanson won in LMP3. The #5 DH Racing Ferrari of Michele Rugolo, Stéphane Lémeret and Matthieu Vaxivière won in GT.

The #45 Flying Lizard Motorsports Audi of Darren Law, Johannes van Overbeek, Dion Von Moltke and Mike Hedlund won the 25 Hours of Thunderhill. The #57 Ryno Racing Ginetta G57 of Colin Braun, Parker Chase, Ryan Carpenter, Randy Carpenter, Colton Herta and Bryan Herta won in the ESR class and finished second overall.

Coming Up This Weekend
The Sepang 12 Hours.

Friday Four: Homebush, Fuji, Thunderhill, Laguna Seca

We have entered the final month of 2016 but the motorsport season is still kicking. A championship ends, another reaches the halfway point and an endurance race is held in Northern California. Plus, a young driver will become $200,000 richer at Laguna Seca.

Homebush Street Circuit
The final round of the 2016 Supercars season is the Sydney 500 from the Homebush Street Circuit, which will be hosting the Supercars for the final time. The round has been the season finale every year on the calendar since the inaugural running in 2009.

The championship will come down to one of two drivers and both drive for Red Bull Racing Australia. Shane Van Gisbergen enters with the championship lead on 3,089 points, 191 points ahead of Jamie Whincup. Van Gisbergen heads to the finale with seven victories and has eight consecutive podium finishes. Whincup has six victories this season, including three victories and five podium finishes in the last six races.

Van Gisbergen could become the third New Zealander to win the Supercars championship and be the first to do it since Jim Richards won his fourth title in 1991. The other New Zealander to take top honors was Robbie Francevic in 1986. Whincup is looking for his record extending seventh championship. Van Gisbergen and Whincup have combined to win the last eight races on the Homebush Street Circuit with Whincup holding the advantage of five victories to Van Gisbergen's three.

Craig Lowndes is trying to make it a clean sweep of the top three of the championship for Red Bull Racing Australia but Lowndes has not finished in the top five in the last eight races. He holds a 21-point advantage over Volvo's Scott McLaughlin, who has four podium finishes in the last six races. Will Davison rounds out the top five in the championship with 2,403 points, 19 points ahead of his former teammate and defending champion Mark Winterbottom.

Chaz Mostert is seventh in the championship on 2,235 point and is the top driver without a victory. Michael Caruso is the top Nissan driver in the championship in eighth on 2,110 points, 27 points ahead of Tim Slade. Garth Tander rounds out the top ten in the championship with 1,976, 12 points ahead of Fabian Coulthard and 27 points ahead of James Courtney.

The first race of the weekend will take place at 11:45 p.m. ET on Friday December 2nd. The season finale will take place at 11:40 p.m. ET on Saturday December 3rd.

Fuji Speedway
The second round of the 2016-17 Asian Le Mans Series season takes place at Fuji Speedway.

The #35 Jackie Chan DC Racing Oreca-Nissan of Gustavo Menezes and Ho-Pin Tung won the season opener at Zhuhai and will be joined by Thomas Laurent this weekend. Korean driver Tacksung Kim finished second at Zhuhai in the #24 Algarve Pro Racing Ligier-Judd and he will be joined by Jonathan Hirschi and Mark Patterson this weekend. The #25 Algarve Pro Racing Ligier-Nissan finished third at Zhuhai but the only returning driver is Michael Munemann, who will be joined by Andrea Roda and Andrea Pizzitola. The final LMP2 entry is the #8 Race Performance Oreca-Judd of Giorio Maggi, Struan Moore and Fabien Schiller.

Nine cars are entered in LMP3. The #1 Jackie Chan DC Racing Ligier-Nissan of David Cheng, James Winslow and Pu Jun Jin won the season opener by over two laps in class over the #26 Tockwith Motorsports Ligier of Nigel Moore and Phil Hanson. The #85 G-Print by Triple 1 Racing Ligier of Hanss Lin and Julio Acosta finished third in the season opener but only Lin is on the entry list for Fuji. The ARC Bratislava Ginettas finished fourth and fifth in class with the #4 Ginetta of Miro Konopka, Darren Burke and Mike Simpson ahead of the #7 Ginetta of Neale Muston and Konstantins Calko.

Fifteen cars are entered in the GT class. The #38 Spirit of Race Ferrari of Rui Águas, Marco Cioci and Nasrat Muzayyin won the season opener ahead of the #61 Clearwater Racing Ferrari of Mok Weng Sun, Keita Sawa and Matt Griffen. Key Cozzolino and Corey Lewis finished third at Zhuhai and they will be joined by Super GT driver Yuhi Sekiguchi in the #6 VS Racing Lamborghini. The #5 DH Racing Ferrari finished fourth in Zhuhai and Michele Rugolo will be joined by Matthieu Vaxivière and Stéphane Lémeret. The #2 Absolute Racing Audi of Cheng Congfu, Stephen Lin and Alessio Picariello finished fifth in class at Zhuhai.

The 4 Hours of Fuji will start at 10:45 p.m. ET on Saturday December 3rd.

25 Hours of Thunderhill
This weekend marks the 15th running of the 25 Hours of Thunderhill.

Flying Lizard Motorsports won last year's race and returns with two cars. The #45 Audi has Darren Law, Johannes van Overbeek, Dion von Moltke and Mike Hedlund as the line-up with Thomas Sadler III, Andy Wilzoch, Will Owen and Charlie Hayes in the #74 Porsche.

Bryan Herta returns to competition for the first time since 2008 in the #5 Ryno Racing Team Ginetta LMP3 car. His son Colton joins him as well as Colin Braun, Parker Chase and Ryan Carpenter. Herta isn't the only former IndyCar race winner in the event. Al Unser, Jr. returns for another year in the #52 JFC Racing Wolf with Ryan Eversley, Miles Jackson and Todd Harris as his co-drivers.

Le Mans winner and runner-up in the 1996 Indianapolis 500 Davy Jones drives the #19 Patent It! Panoz GTS with Paul Edwards, Anthony Lisa, Steven Lisa and Chuck Hemmingson. Indy Lights race winner Sean Rayhall leads the #67 One Motorsports/Desert West Radical with John Falb, Todd Sluher and Jesse Menczer.

Mazda has entered three Global MX-5 Cup cars. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitcher C.J. Wilson is entered in the #55 Mazda with Taz Harvey, Richard Fisher and Scott Clark. Michael Brockman, Ben Robertaccio, Camden Jones and Thomas Bogar make up the #56 Mazda. Liam Dyer, Spencer Brockman, Mark Abouzeid and Steve McAleer are in the #70 Mazda.

The 25 Hours of Thunderhill starts at 2:00 p.m. ET on Saturyda December 3rd.

Mazda Road to Indy Shootout
While not occurring this weekend but in the middle of next week, one driver will win a $200,000 scholarship to compete in U.S. F2000 in 2017. Eighteen drivers from eight countries head to Laguna Seca for the two-day Mazda Road to Indy Shootout.

Team USA Scholarship winners Oliver Askew and Kyle Kirkwood lead the driver line-up heading to Laguna Seca. Peter Portante, who made 30 U.S. F2000 starts from 2013-15 and has four career podiums, will participate after finishing runner-up in the F1600 championship to Neil Verhagen, who also won the Formula F1600 championship at the SCCA Runoffs but Verhagen will not be participating in the Shootout. Texan Trenton Estep won the Toyo Tires F1600 championship in Canada. Another Texan in the Shootout will be Skip Barber Racing Series champion Timo Reger. Oklahoman Nigel Saurian qualifies after winning the Formula Continental championship at the SCCA Runoffs.

Pacific F2000 champion Tim de Silva and Formula Car Challenge representative Jonathan Sugianto both hail from California. Pittsburgh's Matthew Machiko qualified after winning the Formula Mazda championship at the SCCA Runoffs and at 25 years old, he is the oldest driver in the competition. Austin Garrison rounds out the Americans in the competition after winning the Rotax MAX Challenge.

There are eight international drivers coming to the United States to compete in the Shootout. Scottish Formula Ford 1600 champion Neil MacLennan, Mountney Formula Ford Super Series champion Oliver White and BRSCC F1600 champion Niall Murray all come from across the Atlantic. New Zealander Michael Scott earned a spot after winning the New Zealand Formula Ford Championship, the same series Scott Dixon won almost twenty years ago. Australia's Will Brown finished second in Australia Formula Ford and won the Australia Formula Four championship.

MMSC MRF F1600 India Championship sends championship runner-up Karthik Tharani to the Shootout. Mexican Axel Matus won the Formula Panam Championship and the final driver in the Shootout is Mazda Road to Indy Brazil champion Marcel Coletta, the youngest driver in the competitions at 14 years of age.

Unlike a traditional race weekend, the drivers will be split into four groups and each group will get three-30 minutes sessions on Tuesday December 6th. On Wednesday December 7th, the drivers will be split into four groups again and each group will have another 30-minute session. In the afternoon, the 18 drivers will be split into two groups and each group will have a 30-minute qualifying session before the 30-minute simulation race, which will be held at 4:30 p.m. ET.

The winner of the Mazda Road to Indy Scholarship will be announced at 6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday December 7th.

Over/Unders
1. Over or Under: 162.5 points scored this weekend by Michael Caruso at Homebush?
2. Over or Under: 1.5 LMP3 cars on the lead lap in class at Fuji?
3. Over or Under: 10.5 cars completing 600 laps in the 25 Hours of Thunderhill?
4. Over or Under: 7.5 American drivers mentioned in the Racer.com Mazda Road to Indy Shootout recap?

Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Over: Nine cars finished within a minute of Lewis Hamilton at Abu Dhabi.
2. Over: There were six retirements during the GP2 weekend.
3. Under: Santino Ferrucci scored two points at Abu Dhabi.
4. Under: José María López ended the 2016 WTCC season with 381 points.

Predictions
1. Someone other than Shane Van Gisbergen and Jamie Whincup will win at Homebush.
2. There will be at least four European drivers represented in the three class winners.
3. The Ryno Racing Ginetta finishes in the top five overall.
4. A driver between the ages of 18 and 19 win the Mazda Road to Indy Shootout.

Last Week's Predictions 
1. One of the top six in the championship retire from the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Wrong. The top six all finished).
2. At least one GP2 race features two drivers from the same country on the podium (Wrong. Six podium places, five nationalities but Sergey Sirotkin and Artem Markelov finished on the podium in separate races).
3. Charles Leclerc wins one of the GP3 races this weekend (Wrong. Leclerc's best finish was ninth).
4. Citroën puts two cars on the podium in each race from Qatar (Half right. There were two Citroën's on the podium for the second race).
Last Week: 0.5/5 Overall: 25.5/49

2016 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

Today is the final day of November and before we start the final month of 2016, let's look back on the Formula One predictions made for 2016 seeing as the season that wrapped up a few days ago.

1. There Will Be At Least Four Race Winners and One Will Be a First Time Winner
Correct. I got this one on the money. The Mercedes were locks. The other two weren't. I thought 2016 would be the year Ferrari could take the fight to Mercedes and Sebastian Vettel would threatened for the championship. That didn't happen. The Red Bulls were on the heels of Mercedes all season. I didn't see Max Verstappen's early promotion coming and sure enough he won his Red Bull debut with Daniel Ricciardo picking up a victory in Malaysia. Ricciardo could have won Monaco as well. I thought the first time winner could have been Valtteri Bottas or Sergio Pérez or Nico Hülkenberg.

2. Nico Rosberg Will Not Lead Germans in Victories
Wrong. Like I said above, I thought Ferrari could take the fight to Mercedes this season and I thought the championship would come down to Lewis Hamilton and Vettel. That wasn't the case. Ferrari took a big step back from 2015 but Rosberg didn't fade.

3. There Will Be At Least One Incident Where a Mercedes Retires Because of Contact With Another Mercedes
Correct. And wasn't it a doozy. Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton coming together at Barcelona still has us talking. Was it Rosberg's fault for blocking and being in the wrong engine mode? Was it on Hamilton for trying to pass him in the grass? And it nearly happened again in Austria! Hamilton was able to continue and Rosberg limped home dragging his front wing.

4. Alain Prost Will Still Have A Share Of Second All-Time In Victories After the 2016 Season
Wrong. Once again, I didn't think it would have been as much of a run away. I thought the season would mostly be split three ways with Hamilton, Vettel and Rosberg all getting five to six victories and the other races being split by the rest of the field. I didn't think Hamilton could win eight races in a season let alone ten.

5. Haas F1 Scores At Least One Points Before Hungary
Correct. The team had eight points after Australia. Romain Grosjean's drive in the team's debut was exhilarating and then Grosjean backed it up with a fifth at Bahrain. The team had 28 points by Hungary. They only scored one point after Hungary but it was a great start of the season for Haas. Now can they pick it up for year two?

6. Manor Scores At Least Two Points
Wrong. Manor scored one point thanks to Pascal Wehrlein's tenth at Austria. That was it. The team was quicker than last season but was still toward the back and didn't have the pace to work their way through the middle of the pack. The teams best races outside of Austria was Brazil, where both cars appeared to have a shot at points in the rain and Abu Dhabi, where the teammate ran each other off course but both finished on the lead lap.

7. McLaren Will Be At Least the Second-Best British Constructor
Correct. To be fair, I made this prediction before Renault bought Lotus and there were still four British constructors on the grid. Once the purchase was complete, Williams, McLaren and Manor were the three British constructors left on the grid and being the second-best of those three wasn't all that impressive but McLaren didn't make a noticeable improvement over 2015.

8. A Driver That Has Never Had a 100-Plus Point Season Scores 100 Points or More
Correct. Max Verstappen did it and not only did he break the 100-point plateau, he scored 204 points in his sophomore season. And the good news is Verstappen wasn't the only one to score over 100 points for the first time in his career in 2016. Sergio Pérez ended up with 101 points.

9. There Will Be At Least Two Driver Changes During The Season
Correct. The first was unexpected as Fernando Alonso hurt his back after he barrel rolled in Melbourne and Stoffel Vandoorne substituted for him at Bahrain and he scored a point on his debut. The other was Rio Haryanto being benched by Manor after Germany and replaced by Esteban Ocon.

10. At Least One Driver Who Didn't Score in 2015 Scores At Least 21 Points
Wrong. The closest of those drivers was the Kevin Magnussen and he only scored seven points.

11. A Track On the 2016 Schedule Announces It Won't Be On the 2017 Schedule
Semi-correct? It appears Hockenheim won't be back in 2017. The original deal was Hockenheim hosted the German Grand Prix in even-numbered years and the Nürburgring hosted odd-numbered years but since Nürburgring has negated its responsibility in the deal, Hockenheim doesn't have to take over hosting the German Grand Prix yearly. Hockenheim was on the provisional schedule but it appears it won't return and Interlagos may not return in 2017. Let's not forget that Singapore and Malaysia appear to no longer fancy Formula One. Singapore has a deal through 2017 and Malaysia's deal is through 2018. After the longest season in Formula One history in 2016, the series could fall back to more reasonable schedule lengths in the near future. We will have to wait and see before confirming.

(Update: It has been confirmed that Hockenheim will not be on the 2017 Formula One schedule).

12. Formula One is Agreed to be Sold Before End of 2016
Correct. Liberty Media Corporation has agreed to buy Formula One from CVC and now we gaze into the horizon, uncertain of the future will be.

Let's say seven and a half eight of 12 right now. I will be honest; I am most surprised the first one was correct. Not so much that four drivers would win but there would be a first time winner. There are some good drivers in Formula One who have yet to get to feel the glory of standing on the top step of the podium. I thought it was a stretch but we were bound to have a flukey race where things go wrong for the usual front-runners and someone sneaks through. That happened to be Barcelona and Barcelona just happened to be the first race for Max Verstappen at Red Bull and it just happened he was in the right place on that day.

Don't forget to catch out revisited predictions for IndyCar and NASCAR.

Since I Wrote About Lewis, I Will Write About Nico

You would think if you were writing the day after the World Drivers' Championship was decided you would be writing about the World Drivers' Champion but that wasn't the case as the runner-up got all the spoils yesterday. Nico Rosberg is clubhouse leader to become the champion we all will forget next to Jody Scheckter and Alan Jones.

Scheckter and Jones both won a title but when you think late-1970s, early-1980s Formula One, Gilles Villeneuve is mentioned before those two but his death during his prime probably adds to his mystique. Heck Ronnie Peterson, Carlos Reutemann and maybe even John Watson are more synonymous with that era than Scheckter and Jones. Rosberg sits somewhere along those two in the background of those with glory but not holding the imaginations of the populous. 

It is hard to like Rosberg because it feels like nobody likes Rosberg. On the podium in Abu Dhabi, while fighting back tears he directed his message to the team to get ready for the celebration and turn the music on because he would soon be there to join them. Once he navigated his way back to the garage, ignoring his commitment to do the post-race press conference, he enters and the team isn't there awaiting his arrival. The champagne had already been opened and the team was off in clusters chatting and drinking but more like it was an office Christmas party than a championship celebration. Rosberg wanted to know where the music is. He wanted a raucous celebration. The music was playing. It was "Sympathy for the Devil." 

Despite wanting to celebrate, an official ushered him with his wife by his side to the pressroom for him to do his post-race comments. Queen's "We Are The Champions" played in the garage while he was across the paddock. 

It felt like the team didn't even want to embrace him. Was "Sympathy for the Devil" Rosberg's choice? Was the man in the black hat taking on the role of black hat compared to his white-hatted teammate? Or was the team sending a message about how it feels having him as champion? 

After all Rosberg is a man of wealth and taste. He is a silver spoon, German by choice, raised in Monaco, talented driver who doesn't seem real. He comes off as someone with no real life experiences. Does he know what it means to struggle? Does he know what sacrifice is? The last three years hasn't helped him. Before this reign of Mercedes dominance, Rosberg had won three times, had 11 career podiums, four pole positions and his best finish in the championship was sixth. Since then he has won twenty times, finished second in the championship twice and the third year proved to be the charm and he ended up winning the world championship. 

His choice to be German arguably is the reason he became world champion. Had he decided to be Finnish like his father or taken the neutral nationality of Monegasque, he might be out of Formula One. Mercedes bought Brawn and Mercedes wanted German drivers. They wanted a German at McLaren after the Fernando Alonso and Heikki Kovalainen spells and Adrian Sutil was high on the list because he was a pal at the time with Hamilton but Mercedes' entry knocked world champion Jenson Button out of a seat and the British team swooped in to pick up the British champion. 

Mercedes wanted Germans and it brought the national hero Michael Schumacher out of retired and paired him the only German of respect and that just happened to be Rosberg. Sebastian Vettel was tied with Red Bull and was on the precipice of something great. Nico Hülkenberg was just entering Formula One but the manufacture returning to Formula One after five-and-a-half decades away couldn't have a rookie leading its return. It would have been too much pressure on Hülkenberg. Nick Heidfeld had experience but we had seen all he could be. Heidfeld was reliable but not great. The same could be said of Timo Glock. Rosberg just happened to be the best of a mediocre batch of Germans and it kept his career alive. Had he been Finnish, maybe Heidfeld would have looked much better to Mercedes or Mercedes ties its hitch to Hülkenberg as their young German to go toe-to-toe with Vettel. Had he been Finnish, Rosberg would have been Heikki Kovalainen, only Kovalainen had won a grand prix by the start of the 2010 season. 

Rosberg isn't going to go down as an all-time greats. His name won't be tossed about with Jim Clark, Juan Manuel Fangio and Ayrton Senna. With new regulations approaching Rosberg could fall back to Earth. His ascension up the record books could stall somewhere near Nigel Mansell's 31 victories if it even gets that high. 

As much as I ripped Rosberg's career a part in the previous 811 words, I believe Rosberg is a good guy. Those tears yesterday weren't some acting job to make people believe he cared. It has been a long and difficult road for him. Only Mansell had raced more seasons before winning his first title. There were probably times at Williams when the world championship didn't seem possible for Rosberg. He embraced his wife in parc fermé and had her by his side after he got down from the podium. This was their moment as much as it was his. 

Rosberg might not be the inspiring driver like Clark, Fangio and Senna but he isn't a hack. Sure, it seemed like there was never a driver who tired harder to throw away a championship than he did this year. He nearly caused a war after Barcelona... and again after Austria... and he tested how hard the stewards would bite by violating the radio regulations at Silverstone. He got nipped but was never mangled. He could have been disqualified after either Austria or Silverstone but he wasn't. Had he been, the world championship wouldn't have been his and history would probably have him as a driver in position to be champion only to throw it all away because he didn't have the confidence to win it without taking his title rivals out with him. He still is that driver who is shaky when challenged only now he has the hardware on his mantel. 

Maybe Rosberg can change his legacy over whatever time remains in his career but it may already be cemented. 

Musings From the Weekend: Can Lewis Catch Michael?

Nico Rosberg took the World Drivers' Championship with a second-place finish to his Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton. One teammate jumped another in GP2. The top three drivers in GP3 entering the final weekend of 2016 scored a combined total of four points the entire weekend. Felipe Massa and Jenson Button said goodbye. So did José María López but in a different series and in a different country. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Can Lewis Catch Michael?
Lewis Hamilton may not have picked up his fourth World Drivers' Championship this season but his ten victories in 2016 has vaulted him to second all-time in Grand Prix victories with 53. He trails Michael Schumacher by 38 for the all-time lead.

Since joining Mercedes in 2013, Hamilton has won 32 times for an average of eight victories in those four seasons with a median of ten. If Hamilton keeps up on his median at Mercedes, he will surpass Schumacher sometime during the 2020 season but to expect him to win ten races a season for another four seasons considering he has had double-digit win totals for three consecutive seasons is unrealistic. As of today, only seven times has a driver had double-digit victories in a season. We would be asking Hamilton to have double-digit victories for seven consecutive seasons. What Hamilton has done already is monumental. Any more just adds to his legend.

With new regulations coming for 2017, Mercedes is still expected to be one of the top teams but to expect the dominance of the last three years to continue at the same rate seems highly unlikely. Formula One ebbs and flows and it is bound to slip away from Mercedes just as it slipped away from Red Bull after four consecutive drivers' and constructors' title and from Ferrari after the Schumacher-era of dominance at the turn of the 21st century.

With all that said, can Lewis Hamilton catch Michael Schumacher?

As stated before, Hamilton trails Schumacher by 38 victories. Schumacher's final victory was the 2006 Chinese Grand Prix and it came when he was 37 years old and just over four months away from his 38th birthday. Hamilton turns 32 years old on January 7th, four days after Schumacher's birthday. Let's say Hamilton races to the same age as Schumacher did in his first Formula One stint, that would mean Hamilton would run six more seasons and take him to the 2022 season. He would have to average 6.333 victories a season to catch Schumacher by the end of 2022. While that seems doable considering his last three seasons, it should be noted that prior to the 2013 season the most race Hamilton had won in a season was five in 2008 and his current average through ten seasons is 5.3 victories a year with a median of four victories.

If Hamilton reverts to four victories a season for the next six seasons, he would end 2022 with 77 victories, 14 behind Schumacher. If he gets five victories a season to 2022, he would be on 83 victories and within shouting distance of the all-time record.

Few drivers make it to 37 years of age in Formula One. Kimi Räikkönen is 37 years old and will turn 38 years old late in 2017. Felipe Massa and Jenson Button retired from the series at the ages of 35 and 36 respectively this year. Fernando Alonso will turn 36 years old next July but his future in Formula One is cloudy beyond 2017. Rubens Barrichello's final start came when he was 39 years old and Jarno Trulli was 37 years old when he made his final start, as was David Coulthard. It isn't so much can Hamilton race until he is 37 but can Hamilton remain at this top level for the better part of a decade or will the likes of Max Verstappen, Lance Stroll, Daniil Kvyat, Carlos Sainz, Jr., Kevin Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne force him out of a top seat when he starts to slip in performance?

While the record for most Grand Prix victories is a daunting task for Hamilton, there are plenty of other records within his grasp and he is already at the top of many categories in the record book. He has 61 pole positions, third all-time behind Schumacher's 68 and Ayrton Senna's 65. He is third all-time in podiums with 104, two behind Alain Prost and 51 behind Schumacher and he has finished on the podium in 55.32% of his starts, behind only Dorino Serafini (who finished second in his only start), Luigi Fagioli (six podiums in seven starts), Juan Manuel Fangio, Nino Farina and José Froilán González. Hamilton has matched the record of 17 podium finishes in a season the last two seasons. Hamilton has scored the most points in Formula One history, although that is an inflated statistics as more points are awarded and awarded to more positions than any other era of Formula One.

Hamilton has led a lap in 99 grand prix; only Schumacher has more at 142 grand prix. He has led 2,990 laps; only Schumacher has more at 5,111 laps. He has won 32 times from pole position, only Schumacher has done it more at 40 times.

Regardless of whether or not Hamilton gets 91 victories or more, his name already covers the record books as much as the likes of Schumacher, Senna and Fangio. It is not likely Hamilton will reach Schumacher but he doesn't have to for his greatness will already be known.

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Rosberg but did you know...

Pierre Gasly clinched the GP2 Series championship with a feature race victory and Prema Racing teammate Antonio Giovinazzi finishing fifth and sixth in the two races.

Charles Leclerc clinched the GP3 Series championship after title rival Alexander Albon retired in the first race from Abu Dhabi.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about some of what happened from Abu Dhabi but did you know...

Alex Lynn won the GP2 sprint race from Abu Dhabi.

Nick de Vries and Jake Hughes split the GP3 races from Abu Dhabi

Gabrielle Tarquini and Mehdi Bennani split the WTCC finale from Qatar.

Coming Up This Weekend
The Supercars end its season on the street of Sydney's Olympic Park one final time.
The 25 Hours of Thunderhill features names such as Unser, Herta, Eversley and Braun.