2024 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

It isn't the longest season, but Formula One takes us the deepest in the year of the maor championships in the world. It still does not feel all that long ago the season was over in October and the holidays were months away. Now, the final checkered flag waves weeks away from the Christmas and the end of the year. All that is left to do is recap the season and put to bed the predictions made nearly a year ago.

1. The second Red Bull entry leads at least 200 laps

Wrong!

The thought was Red Bull would be good and its second entry would do better than it did in 2023. Instead, Sergio Pérez had a disaster of a season that may end his Formula One career. After leading 146 laps last year and leading 148 laps the year before that, Pérez led a grand total of... one lap over the entire 2024 season. 

If there is not a better encapsulation of this nosedive it is Pérez going from a regular podium finisher and someone who could pull off a few victories, to someone who wasn't even close and it felt like a fluke he even led a lap. 

The one lap Pérez led this season was lap 22 in the Italian Grand Prix. It was a race he finished eighth. Pérez's season with opened the sixth consecutive top five finishes. He did not finish in the top five in the final 18 races of the season.

2. There will be midseason driver changes at multiple teams

Correct!

After no driver changes from the final race of 2023 to the first race of 2024, it was almost a guarantee we would see somebody lose a seat midseason.

Technically, the first driver change was at Ferrari. Carlos Sainz, Jr. had appendicitis at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and that forced him out of the car for the second race of the season. Oliver Bearman stepped in, but this prediction wasn't about a quick substitution for an injury or illness. This was about a permanent break from a driver.

That still happened at multiple teams. 

The first was Williams letting Logan Sargeant go after the Dutch Grand Prix. Franco Colapinto entered and ran the remainder of the season, scoring five points after Sargeant scored none, though Colapinto had his fair share of crash damage.

The second was at the team formerly known as Toro Rosso, where Daniel Ricciardo was released after the Singapore grand Prix with 12 points to his name. Liam Lawson returned to the grid and he scored four points over the final six races.

Bearman did return to replace Kevin Magnussen at Haas after Magnussen was suspended for penalty point accumulation, forcing the Dane out of the Azerbaijan race. Bearman also ran in place of Magnussen at Brazil when Magnussen was ill. 

The final change this season was at the final race. Jack Doohan drove at Alpine in place for Esteban Ocon. 

3. On at least one occasions there will be three consecutive different winners

Correct!

This was a good year for winners. It started with Max Verstappen winning five of the first seven races and seven of the first ten races. It felt like we were on for another dominant season, but the result swung in the second half of the season. 

While Verstappen was winning all those races, he never won three consecutively. After Verstappen won in Spain, the Mercedes-AMG drivers of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton won the next to races in Austria and Great Britain. Then Oscar Piastri followed it up with his first career grand prix victory in Hungary. Four consecutive winners, but wait, there is more. 

From Piastri's victory spawned another stretch of four consecutive winners. Hamilton, Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc won the three races after Hungary. 

But wait, there is more. 

Piastri's second career victory was in Azerbaijan. That led a run of six consecutive race winners. Norris won in Singapore, Leclerc won in the United States, Sainz, Jr. won in Mexico, Verstappen won in Brazil, and Russell won in Las Vegas.

This one was covered on multiple levels, and it is a good thing it was.

4. Each Williams car will score at least four points

Correct!

Alexander Albon had scored four points at the end of the British Grand Prix. He had a pair of ninths with he other coming in Monaco. Albon scored another ninth-place finish in Monza and he was seventh in Azerbaijan. That left the Thai driver with 12 points. 

As mentioned above, Colapinto joined the team at Monza. He scored four points with his eighth-place finish in Azerbaijan, and then he added another point for insurance with tenth in Austin. 

5. Fernando Alonso finishes at least five positions better than Lance Stroll in fewer than nine grand prix

Wrong!

This prediction was taking into account that Aston Martin would not be as good as last year, but Alonso would come down closer to Stroll's level and there would be better balance between the two drivers.

Alonso came down, but Stroll kept falling back as well.

Alonso was at least five position better than Stroll in nine grand prix!

Saudi Arabia: Alonso fifth, Stroll retired (19th).

Japan: Alonso sixth, Stroll 12th.

China: Alonso seventh, Stroll 15th. 

Miami: Alonso ninth, Stroll 17th.

Italy: Alonso 11th, Stroll 19th.

Azerbaijan: Alonso sixth, Stroll 19th.

Singapore: Alonso eighth, Stroll 14th.

Qatar: Alonso seventh, Stroll retired (18th)

Abu Dhabi: Alonso ninth, Stroll 14th.

This isn't even counting Brazil, where Stroll beached the car after sliding off course on the formation lap. 

But this one was correct on the road for about five seconds because Stroll was 12th in Abu Dhabi, however, he had a five-second penalty for exceeding track limits drop him to 14th, exactly five spots behind Alonso. If only Stroll could have kept it on the track, I would have had this one. That and if Oscar Piastri had not been spun and then hit Colapinto and all Piastri could do was finish tenth, one spot behind Alonso, kept this from being correct.

6. McLaren will score more than 29 points in at least six grand prix

Correct!

This season was far greater than even our greatest expectations for McLaren. Did anyone truly believe McLaren would win the World Constructors' Championship? Honestly? We expected a good year, a more competitive year, but did we expect the unfortunate 666 points and 14 more than Ferrari!? While Red Bull ended up 77 points behind in third? I don't think anyone can honestly say they had that. 

I can honestly say that I had McLaren scoring 29 points or more in at least six grand prix, but not including sprint race points. This is just taking into consideration grand prix results. When a team wins six races, it is easy to exceed 29 points.

Imola - 30 points (second and fourth)

Monaco - 30 points (second and fourth)

Hungary - 43 points (first and second)

Netherlands - 38 points (first and fourth with fastest lap)

Italy - 34 points (second and third with fastest lap)

Azerbaijan - 38 points (first and fourth with fastest lap)

Singapore - 40 points (first and third)

That is seven races with at least 29 points. It is kind of surprising that in two of its victories that did not see 29 points scored. In Miami, Norris won but Piastri was 13th and outside the points. In the Abu Dhabi finale, Norris won but Piastri was tenth and the total was only 26 points. There were at least two other better days to make up for those. 

You would have thought the constructors' champions would have scored 29 points or more in half the races, but this was closer to be wrong than when I starting going over the numbers.

7. The gap between sixth and seventh in the constructors' championship will be less than 40 points

Correct!

Alpine took the surprise sixth spot in the constructors' championship on 65 points. Thirty-three of those points came in the Brazilian Grand Prix when the changing conditions and timely red flag allowed Esteban Ocon to finish second and Pierre Gasly to finish third. That was the difference between sixth and eighth in the constructors' championship.

In seventh was Haas with 46 points. Haas scored points in 13 races with three double points days, and the team's best finish was sixth on two occasions. 

That gap between Alpine and Haas was seven points. Even if Alpine did not score 33 points in Brazil, we would have been looking at a 12-point margin between Haas in sixth and the team formerly known as Toro Rosso in seventh. We had this covered. 

8. Charles Leclerc will finish eighth in at least two races

Wrong!

This was very specific, but it didn't happen because Leclerc was damn fine this season. Leclerc had a points-paying finish in 21 of 24 races. He scored points in 22 of 24 rounds (sprint points in Austria). Every points finish for Leclerc was a top five finish. Twenty-one top five finishes was the most in the 2024 season!

Verstappen had 19 top five finishes and Norris had 18. Credit to Leclerc, which I don't think he was properly getting until late in the season. He didn't finish eighth because he was constantly running better than eighth. Through now 147 career starts, Leclerc remains on four eighth-place finishes in his career.

9. Max Verstappen will be in sole possession of fourth all-time in podium finishes by the conclusion of the British Grand Prix

Correct!

 

For this one to be correct, Verstappen needed at least nine podium finishes in the first 12 races with Fernando Alonso scoring zero podium finishes. If Alonso got one, Verstappen needed ten in the first 12 races. 

Alonso held his end of the bargain and he had no podium finishes in the first 12 races. Alonso had no podium finishes over the entire season. 

Verstappen scored his ninth podium finish in the British Grand Prix, moving him to fourth all-time on 107 podium finishes, putting him ahead of Alain Prost and Alonso. Verstappen ended 2024 on 112 points finishes, ten behind equaling Sebastian Vettel for third.

10. Somebody knocks Alain Prost out of the top ten for oldest pole-sitter in Formula One history

Wrong!

This came down to either Alonso or Lewis Hamilton winning a pole position in 2024. That didn't happen. Alonso's best starting position was third in China. His only other top five start was fourth in Saudi Arabia. Hamilton started second at Silverstone, 0.171 seconds off his teammate George Russell's pole-winning time. 

We were less than two-tenths of a second from getting this one correct. Oof.

11. Yuki Tsunoda will have fewer 11th-place finishes than in 2023

Correct!

In 2023, Tsunoda had three 11th-place classifications in the first five races (and four in six races dating to the 2022 season finale) and it became a running joke that Tsunoda always finishes 11th... even though he didn't finish 11th again over the final 17 races of 2023.

How many 11th-place finishes did Tsunoda have in 2024? 

Zero! 

So the man who always finishes 11th has not finished 11th in 41 consecutive races. In 87 career starts, Tsunoda has four 11th place finishes. Tsunoda has finished tenth in ten races in his career. He has more seventh place finishes and ninth place finishes (five each) than 11th place finishes.

Just keep that in mind.

12. Haas will exceed 12 points before Formula One's second visit to the United States

Correct!

This was a good year for Haas. It was regularly in the points and the cars had better qualifying pace. It was a slower start though. Haas had five points in the first ten races. In Austria, Haas scored 12 points in that race alone. A sixth at Silverstone the following week added another eight points to the total. 

Halfway through the season, Haas was up to 25 points, and there were six races until the second visit to the United States in Austin. By the time Haas rolled into Texas, it had 29 points, just over double the prediction. 

Eight out of 12! That is what you hope for. That is two-thirds correct. Pretty good. Not great but far from bad. You are bound to get a few wrong. I would argue you got to get a few wrong. It at least shows you are taking risks in your predictions. 

Speaking of predictions, stay tuned! More are just around the corner as we inch closer to 2025.

2024 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

It might not have been the planned location for the 2024 MotoGP season finale, but the two-wheel world championship ended on its scheduled date last Sunday in Barcelona, and it marked the end of the motorcycle racing season. It was a good year for first-time champions and European manufacturers. A few notable competitors are calling it time on their careers. A few others are getting ready to go once again in 2025. The winter is not long, and testing has already begun for next year.

Before we get there, we should look back on predictions made for a few of these championships, checking to see how they turned out. 

MotoGP

1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix

Correct!

Last season, no rider won consecutive races. It was the first time there was no consecutive race winner since the inaugural six-race season in 1949. 

This year, there were exactly three occasions where a rider won consecutive grand prix. 

Francesco Bagnaia had a four-race winning streak with victories in Catalunya, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany.

Marc Márquez would win consecutive races at Arágon and Misano. 

It was getting dicey at the end of the season, but then Bagnaia won in Thailand and Malaysia. That was the third occasion and the victory in the Barcelona finale to cap off his season with three consecutive victories was just a cherry on top. 

2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship

Correct!

Márquez was third in the championship, and you would think third would have been great, but Márquez nearly fell short in this prediction. 

Due to Ducati's dominance, it took the top four spots in the 2024 championship. Márquez was third-best among the Ducati riders, exactly within where he needed to be in this prediction. Except Márquez was only six points ahead of Ducati factory rider Enea Bastiannini! Márquez was outside the top ten in three of the final six races, keeping Bastiannini in touching distance. 

Márquez did enough to get there but if you told me Márquez would finish third in the championship, I would have guessed he achieved this prediction with comfort. It was anything but that during the final weekend from Barcelona.

3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified

Wrong!

Last season, there were six races where fewer than 15 riders took the checkered flag, meaning not every points position was paid out. This year, 19 races saw all 15 points paying spots awarded. That would have been great in almost every other MotoGP season... except this one. 

There was one race where fewer than 15 riders finished. In Indonesia, only 12 riders took the checkered flag. It was the 15th race of the season. We were so close. Damn!

4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019

Correct!

Acosta had to finish at least eighth in the championship for this prediction to be correct. Acosta ended up sixth on 215 points, 42 points to the good from what he needed to be and only two points behind Brad Binder in fifth. 

Acosta started the season with two podium finishes in the first three races. He had some rough days, but he did have six podium finishes this season. He was in the top five in seven races. At Motegi, he started on pole position, and he won two of the first three sprint races this season, and he also picked up fastest lap on debut. 

Sixth in the championship is the best championship result for a rookie since Fabio Quartararo in 2019. 

5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season

Wrong!

Very wrong. Yamaha and Honda went in the wrong direction. They combined for five podium finishes last year. They combined for zero podium finishes this year. No Japanese bike finished in the top five this season. The best finis was sixth in Malaysia with Fabio Quartararo on his Yamaha. Quartararo was 13th in the championship, the best rider on a Japanese bike. 

I don't know how to paint a more bleak picture than this prediction. 

6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second

Correct!

Entering 2024, Moto2 had gone 29 consecutive races without a race being decided by less than a tenth of a second. 

How did the 2024 season begin? 

Alonso López won the season opener in Qatar by 0.055 seconds over Barry Batlus.

Boom! One race and it was achieved. 

There were three other races with a margin of victory under a tenth of a second. 

Joe Roberts won in Mugello by 0.067 seconds over Manuel González. 

Celestino Vietti won the second Misano race by 0.029 seconds over Arón Canet.

Canet won the Barcelona finale by 0.091 seconds over González.

We went about a season-and-a-half with no races decided by less than a tenth of a second. We had four this season alone. 

I say we made up for lost time and then some. 

7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races

Wrong!

Leopard Racing won once with rookie Ángel Piqueras winning the San Marino and Rimini Riviera Grand Prix from Misano, but that was it for the team that has won at least four races in six of the previous nine seasons. 

I don't think anyone saw David Alonso winning 14 of 20 races. That had a role in a lack of Leopard victories.

Piqueras was the last rider not named David Alonso to win this season. Piqueras was second to Alonso in the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix from Misano, the start of Alonso's seven-race winning streak to end the season. That was Piqueras' only runner-up finish. He had two third-place finishes. 

His teammate Adrián Fernández had three podium finishes all season, second in Indonesia before a pair of thirds in Japan and Australia.

8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium

Correct!

There was one race all MotoE season with an all-Spanish podium, and it was smack-dab in the middle of the season, the first race of the Dutch TT weekend from Assen, the ninth of 16 races. But it wasn't an all-Spanish podium originally. 

Héctor Garzó won the race, his first victory of the season, but Italian Alessandro Zaccone was second. However, Zaccone was disqualified due to a tire pressure infringement. This promoted Spaniard Oscar Gutiérrez up to second, and Spaniard Jordi Torres went from fourth to third. It is the first all-Spanish podium in MotoE history. 

That is one way to get a prediction correct.

World Superbike

9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.

Wrong!

The hilarious thing about this prediction is that despite Rea's struggles on the Yamaha in his first season with the make, he did get on the podium. 

The problem is he only got on the podium once, and where did he finish? 

Third, of course! Third in the SuperPole race from Donington Park! 

It was a rough season and Yamaha declined and Rea was the third-best Yamaha rider. He also missed five races due to injury, but Rea ended up 13th in the championship and he did not win a race in a World Superbike season for the first time since 2008 when he only ran the final round as a wild card entry after taking second in the World Supersport championship.

10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024

Correct!

And not only did we get two riders, but we had three riders do it in 2024. 

The first was in the opening round. We were halfway to this prediction being correct after one round. Alex Lowes won the SuperPole race and race two from Phillip Island on his Kawasaki. 

We had to wait a little bit longer for the next one. It did not help that Toprak Razgatlioglu won 13 consecutive races and 15 of the next 18 races after Phillip Island. If it wasn't for Razgatlioglu's injury in practice from Magny-Cours, we might not have seen a second different rider who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 do so in 2024. 

With Razgatlioglu out, Andrea Locatelli won the first race, but Nicolò Bulega won the SuperPole race and race two in France. 

There you have it, prediction met! But there is more!

After Magny-Cours, World Superbike visited the Cremona Circuit in Italy for the first time. Razgatlioglu was still recovering from the back injury suffered two weeks prior in France. Danilo Petrucci went on to sweep the round in his home country. 

Bulega would go on to win consecutive races again in the season finale from Jerez, but three different riders won consecutive races after only Razgatlioglu and Álvaro Bautista (who did win consecutive races in 2024 at Aragón) were the only two riders with consecutive victories last season. 

At least that kept it interesting. 

Supercross/Motocross

11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds

Uh... technically, wrong!

When this predictions were made, I stated any absence due to injury would not count. Lawrence injured his thumb in the middle of the Motocross season and he did not run the final six rounds of the season. 

So those don't count. What about the 17 Supercross races and the first five rounds of the Motocross season?

In Supercross, Lawrence's longest winless streak was three races on two occasions. He won eight of 17 races and claimed the championship relatively comfortably over Cooper Webb. 

In Motocross, Lawrence swept the first two races of the season opener from Fox Raceway. Then Chase Sexton swept the Hangtown races. Hunter Lawrence won the first race from Thunder Valley, but then Jett won four consecutive races until he was second in the second race from Southwick. 

Then he injured his thumb and his season was over.

The longest Jett Lawrence went without a victory in 2024 was three races. 

12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds

Wrong!

Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combined to win three rounds. 

It started with an unexpected victory for Aaron Plessinger at San Diego. It would be one of three podium finishes for Plessinger, and his season ended five races early after suffering an injury. He was 11th in the championship.

Ken Roczen won in Glendale, and he had a good season going. Roczen had three podium finishes through the first six races. He had six podium finishes in 13 races. Then he was injured in Nashville and that ended his season early, knocking him down to seventh in the championship.

Then there was Eli Tomac. It was not a strong season for Tomac, but he had some good runs. His only victory was the Triple Crown weekend in St. Louis. However, a thumb injury sidelined Tomac for the finale at Salt Lake City, and subsequently the first nine Motocross weekends. This left him fourth in the final championship standings. 

It was closer, but how close was it? 

Tomac had the best ride in Arlington. After a fall on lap two, he was 16th, nearly 13 seconds off the lead. He ended up finishing second, three seconds behind Cooper Webb. It was one of five runner-up finishes Tomac had this season. 

Jason Anderson had a pair of runner-up results, behind Jett Lawrence in the Anaheim season opener and behind Roczen at Glendale. Obviously, trading Andersen for Roczen would mean we still would have had only three victories for riders outside the top three. 

Roczen was second to Lawrence at Indianapolis, so that could have been the fourth victory we needed.

Hunter Lawrence was second to his brother Jett at Denver. Justin Cooper was second in the season finale in Salt Lake City to Chase Sexton. 

There were plenty of close calls, but close was not good enough here.

Six-for-12. Better than last year. Not great. Not bad. Middle of the road. Some were close, but we already established good is not good enough. It could be worse though. Hopefully it is better in 2025.

2024 NASCAR Predictions: Revisited

NASCAR season is finally over, and I think most are relieved the season is over. There is a sense a good number of people wanted a break, and there is another identity crisis emerging after the outcome of this season. After starting in February, a break in November is much needed. There is not even three months until the teams return to competition. 

Before we get back to racing, we should look back on what has just happened. Three national touring series have wrapped up their seasons and there were plenty of memorable races and moments. A dozen predictions were made ahead the action, and it is time to see if the thoughts of last winter were true.

1. The Cup Series champion will have at least five top five finishes between the months of June, July, August and September

Wrong!

It is hard to believe this one was wrong, but for the second consecutive season, the NASCAR Cup Series champion had fewer than five top five finishes over the four months that make up summer. Last year, Ryan Blaney failed to have any top five finishes over that four-month stretch. Joey Logano did better than that, but he fell short of the prerequisite for this prediction. 

Logano had four top five finishes over these four months. 

Fifth at Gateway

First at Nashville

Fifth at Pocono

First at Atlanta

Logano had seven top five finishes all season, the fewest for a NASCAR Cup Series champion since Bill Rexford in 1950.

2. Every Cup playoff driver finishes the season with at least four top five finishes

Wrong!

This prediction was dead the moment Harrison Burton won the August race at Daytona. It was Burton's first top five finish of the season, and let's face, Burton wasn't going to get three top five finishes in the final 11 races of the season.

Either way, Burton wasn't the only playoff driver to fail to reach four top five finishes this season. The winner of the next race at Southern 500, Chase Briscoe, only had three top five finishes. The difference is Briscoe's Darlington victory was his third top five finish of the season. All he needed was one in the final ten races. Briscoe was sixth at Watkins Glen.

For a season that had a bunch of unexpected winners, some reached four top five finishes. Austin Cindric reached four top five finishes. Daniel Suárez reached four top five finishes. Without those victories, they likely don't make the playoffs. Without their victories at Daytona and Darlington, Burton and Briscoe likely don't make the playoffs either. Who ended up on the outside?

Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain, who all ended the season with six top five finishes, and Kyle Busch, who had five top five finishes this season. Great.

3. William Byron will have fewer victories where he lead 20 laps or fewer

Correct!

Byron only won three races this season, so as long he led at least 21 laps in one of those victories we were good. 

However, he started the season winning the Daytona 500 with four laps led. He was one-third of the way to matching his 2023 performance through one race of the season. However, he led 42 laps and won at Austin and then he led 88 laps and won at Martinsville. Three victories through the first eight races. 

How did the final 28 races go? No victories for Byron. There you go. Prediction correct. 

4. 23XI Racing will win more Cup races but have fewer drivers in the final top ten championship standings

Correct!

Last season, 23XI Racing won twice and it had two drivers in the top ten of the final championship standings. 

This season 23XI Racing won three races and had one driver in the top ten of the final championship standings. 

Tyler Reddick was responsible all three of 23XI's victories this season. Reddick was fourth in the championship and Bubba Wallace was 18th after he did not qualify for the playoffs.

5. Shane van Gisbergen's average finish across the three national NASCAR series will be greater than 15.5

Correct!

Year one of the full Shane van Gisbergen experiment in NASCAR went pretty well. It wasn't perfect, but for a driver who spent over 15 years competing in Supercars, this would be a transition as he moved to a primarily oval-based series after years of exclusive competing on street courses and road courses. 

After winning on his Cup debut last year at Chicago, everyone expected he would win again in NASCAR on a road course. That happened. He won three times. Portland, Sonoma and Chicago. It was three victories in five races. Pretty damn good. 

While he did have top five finishes in five of six road/street course races, and he lost second for a controversial track limits penalty at Austin, he did finish 12th in his first race at Daytona and he was third at Atlanta. He was sixth in his first Phoenix start and he finished 11th on his first trip to Martinsville. He was also fourth at Indianapolis, seventh in the summer Darlington race and he finished eighth in the playoffs at Kansas. 

While he had ten top ten results, there were growing pains. He had eight finishes outside the top 35. 

Van Gisbergen did well in his 12 Cup starts. He was second at Watkins Glen and seventh at the Charlotte roval, but he did throw away a promising run at Chicago. He did complete every lap in both Talladega races, and he finished 12th in his first Cup race at Martinsville. In addition to Chicago, he had six more finishes outside the top 25 in Cup.

Nobody should be expected van Gisbergen to be blowing the doors off the competition, but with his road course skills, it was inevitable he would lock up a playoff spot with a victory and then have some good days here and there. There will still be tough days. 

With that said, over 45 starts in NASCAR's top two divisions, van Gisbergen's average finish was 18th, which was expected by this prediction, but was also pretty impressive for him. That is kind of where his natural talent should put him. The more time he spends in NASCAR, the better he will develop. I don't know if he will every be averaging a top ten finish over an entire Cup season, but van Gisbergen can certainly hold his own to the average competitor in the Cup Series.

6. Ty Gibbs will get his first career Cup victory before the All-Star Race

Wrong!

This was a prediction limited to the first 13 races, and it looked promising to start the season. Gibbs had three top ten finishes in the first four races. Two of those were top five results. He led 137 laps at Bristol before finishing ninth after everyone struggled on tires. He was third at Austin and ranked second in points. At that point, it felt inevitable Gibbs would win and it would be soon.

However, he finished outside the top ten in the next four races and in five of the next six. In the final chance for this prediction to be correct, Gibbs was second at Darlington. Brutal. 

How did the rest of the season go for Gibbs?

After four top five results in the first 13 races, he had four top five finishes in the final 23 races. He ended the season with five consecutive finishes of 30th or worse. 

7. Both Legacy Motor Club entries finish in the top 25 of the owners' championship

Wrong!

This one was wildly wrong, and the switch to Toyota did not help Legacy Motor Club. 

The #43 Toyota was 29th in owner's points and the #42 Toyota was ranked 35th!

Woof! It was worse than last year! The #43 entry was 27th last year and the #42 entry was 32nd. The team went in the wrong direction!

Erik Jones ended up 28th in points and missed two races. John Hunter Nemechek was 34th. 

As a collective, the Legacy Motor Club results weren't much worse than last year. The team had one top five finishes and six top ten finishes combined. Last year, the team had one top five finish and seven combined top ten finishes. The difference is last year Jones was responsible for all of that and Ty Dillon contributed nothing. This year Jones had one top five and two top ten finishes while Nemechek had four top ten finishes. 

That is some progress, but Jones' averrable finish dropped from 20.4 to 22.9. Nemcheck did have an average finish of 25.4 compared to Dillon's 27.5. It wasn't entirely a down year, but this was not a year of upward mobility either. 

It can only go up from here in 2025, right?

8. The Iowa Cup winner will have won there previously in one of NASCAR's other national series

Correct!

Ryan Blaney won the inaugural Cup race held at Iowa Speedway, leading 201 of 350 laps from second on the grid.

Blaney's first career Truck Series victory came at Iowa in September 2012. It was his third career start. He also led 252 of 260 laps on his way to victory at Iowa in August 2015 in NASCAR's second division.

9. The driver that wins the most races in NASCAR's second division wins the championship

Wrong!

Austin Hill won four races, but Hill ended up fourth in the championship. Justin Allgaier won two races and took the title. The streak extends to 15 consecutive seasons without the driver with the most victories winning the championship at NASCAR's second level.

This season was rather competitive, and that was expected. Only four drivers won at least three races this season, but eventually the number's game will turn and the driver that dominates this series will win the title.

10. This will be the season with the most race winners qualifying for the playoff in NASCAR's second division

Wrong!

This one fell short by one. We needed nine drivers to clinch a playoff spot with a race victory in the regular season. We had eight! Even worse, there were 18 race winners this season. Sixteen of those drivers won in the regular season.

If you had told me, there would be 16 winners in the first 26 races, I would have said it is a lock there would be nine winners making the playoffs. I might have even said it would have to be ten drivers. It was eight. 

The stunning thing was A.J. Allmendinger didn't win a regular season race, and he didn't win until Las Vegas with four races remaining. Jesse Love won a race, Ryan Truex won twice thought not as a full-time driver, Shane van Gisbergen won three times, Connor Zilisch won on debut. All of that occurred in the regular season, and Allmendinger could not win once. 

Sheldon Creed had six runner-up finishes in the regular season but no victories! That ninth different winner could have happened. It just kept falling short.

11. Drivers with a first name beginning with the letter "C" will combine to win fewer than ten Truck races

Wrong!

This one stings because drivers with a first name starting with the letter "C" needed to win fewer than ten races. Not ten or fewer, but fewer than ten. No more than nine, two fewer than their combined victory total in 2023. 

How did it work out this year? They combined for ten victories. 

Christian Eckes won six times and Corey Heim won four times. Entering the penultimate race, they were on nine victories. Eckes dominated that race but Taylor Gray took the lead late only for Eckes to knock him out of the way. There went the prediction as well. 

As you can see, it was just one of those years of constantly end up falling one short.

12. Each Chicago race will complete at least 95% of the scheduled distances but neither will exceed 110% of the scheduled distances.

Wrong!

I don't know what NASCAR has to do to get a clean weekend in Chicago, but it felt like this year was set to be better, and it was, but for the second consecutive year it was not smooth sailing. 

The Grand National Series race on Saturday went the scheduled distance, 50 laps, 107 miles.

Sunday is where it went sideways. 

All week, the forecast was clear for both days. Come Sunday, there was a storm a coming. Another rain storm red flagged the race and the delay pushed it up against sunset. NASCAR made the call that the race would end once two laps were completed after 8:20 p.m. local time. When Alex Bowman took the checkered flag, only 58 of the scheduled 75 laps were completed, 77.333% of the scheduled distance. 

Let's remember that in two years of the Chicago street race, NASCAR has completed 78% of the scheduled distance, shortened the scheduled distance by 25% for year two, only for it again to only complete essentially 78% of the scheduled distance. 

At this rate, we are looking at a scheduled distance of 56 laps in 2025 with only about 43 laps being completed. Oh my goodness! It doesn't get much worse than that. 

Except it does, because my predictions went four for 12 this year. Lousy. Plain lousy is what that is. Some were harsh, but it is lousy nonetheless. I mean, batting .333 would have made you the best hitter in Major League Baseball this season, but I am not looking to top Bobby Witt, Jr. 

On to better things in 2025.

Musings From the Weekend: 2024 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Álex Palou claimed a third championship in four seasons. Colton Herta ended the season with a victory. It wasn't a bad Nashville race. Elsewhere, there was a coming together on the final lap in Baku. NASCAR had two sloppy races at Watkins Glen. A bunch of people learned about Connor Zilisch. Porsche is probably going to win another championship. Actually, Porsche did win a championship! Cadillac cannot have a good day. SuperMotocross continues running during the heart of a college football afternoon. However, it is the first day of the IndyCar offseason, and we have a tradition to keep.

2024 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited

The IndyCar season is over. We all need a break. This is effectively mailing it in. Taking something that was written earlier and writing about it again. Each prediction is essentially a prompt. Take it and respond. Simple enough.

How did 2024 look? We are about to find out.

1. Álex Palou will have at least four finishes outside the top ten

Correct!

A number of these predictions were not settled until after the final race of the season, and I was certain this one would be wrong.. Palou was practically flawless all season and could not finish worse than tenth without something bad happening. He might have been a lap down for most of the Nashville race, but entering the final stint of the race, there was Palou looking like he was going to sneak into a top ten position, but as the final round of pit stops happened and a number of drivers were forced to stop within the final 20 laps of the race, Palou ended up cycling to finish 11th, his fourth time finishing outside the top ten this season.

It started with a 16th in Detroit after he was caught behind a spinning Josef Newgarden and Palou was shuffled down the order. Then Palou spun on his own and out of the first Iowa race to finish 23rd. In the second Milwaukee race, Palou's career suffered a battery issue on the pace laps and was set back over 25 laps immediately, finishing 19th.

It is a shocker this one ended up correct. Palou ended the season with consecutive finishes outside the top ten for the first time since the August 2021 Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race and Gateway. Who had that being the way the season ended? 

Palou wasn't going to have 17 more top ten finishes. Four felt like a practical number. It was and it still wasn't enough to knock Palou off the top spot.

2. Chip Ganassi Racing's top five finish total decreases by at least 25%

Wrong!

Last year, Chip Ganassi Racing had 28 top five finishes. This year, Chip Ganassi Racing had 27 top five finishes, six more than we needed for this prediction. 

Ganassi beat this prediction with Palou and Scott Dixon alone. Palou had 13 top five finishes and Dixon had eight. That is 21 right there. All it needed was Marcus Armstrong, Linus Lundqvist and Kyffin Simpson to combine for one top five finish to beat this, and they nearly matched its 2023 output. 

Last year felt like a historic season for Ganassi, and this year was nearly on par but didn't feel close to 2023. Yet, Ganassi had many good days from nearly all of its drivers. It helps when Palou gets 13 top five finishes. Eight or nine top five finishes is still a great season. Expecting him to come down to earth is reasonable, but he remains on a higher level.

3. Every driver that did not win in 2023 but won in 2022 will win in 2024

Wrong!

We got three out of the four. 

Will Power won in 2022, did not win in 2023, and then he won three times in 2024.

Patricio O'Ward won in 2022, did not win in 2023, and then he won three times in 2024.

Colton Herta won in 2022, did not win in 2023, and then he won twice in 2024.

Alexander Rossi won in 2022, did not win in 2023, and he did not win in 2024 either. 

Rossi wasn't even all that close to victory this season. He had one podium finish, a third at Laguna Seca. He was at the front at the Indianapolis 500 but he wasn't in the fight for the victory. He was leading laps at Milwaukee, but he was shuffled back. 

Two winless seasons and Rossi is out at Arrow McLaren. This was the fifth consecutive season Rossi finished either ninth or tenth in the championship. It is harsh to say but this is who he is as a driver. He is the ninth or tenth-best driver in IndyCar. Better than most but hard to say great.

4. Josef Newgarden will finish third-place in at least one street course race

Wrong!

There is a cruelty to this prediction because Newgarden finished third on two ovals and a road course, but he did not finish third at a street course. Entering this season, Newgarden had not finished third since the 2020 season opener at Texas, and he had only five career finishes of third. This year alone he increased his total third-place finishes by 60%. 

Consider this. 

Newgarden has 31 victories, 19 runner-up finishes, 14 fifth-place finishes, 13 fourth-place finishes and only eight third-place finishes! 

Out of the top five positions, I am not sure you can expect an equal spread of finishes over the five spots, but one is almost half the rest and it is the one right in the middle. Newgarden's only third-place finish on a street course remains the 2017 Grand Prix of Long Beach. 

5. McLaren will lead at least 100 laps over the final eight races

Correct!

Last year, McLaren led only 50 laps in the final 11 races. The good news is Patricio O'Ward settled this prediction with his Milwaukee victory alone. O'Ward led 133 laps in that race one. That was also good insurance.

If you remove O'Ward's 133 laps led in the first Milwaukee race, McLaren combined to lead 139 laps in the final eight races. That one race alone is almost half of the team's laps led over the second half of the season. 

I don't know how much better this season was than last season for McLaren. It did win three races after winning none last year, but one of those was St. Petersburg, which was awarded after the disqualification of Josef Newgarden. O'Ward only led in four races all season, the Indianapolis 500, Mid-Ohio, the first Milwaukee race and Nashville. Outside of Milwaukee, he combined to lead only 56 laps. 

McLaren's three entries were fifth, ninth and 18th in the entrants' championship this year. Last year, it was fourth, ninth and 12th. The driver carousel in the #6 Chevrolet did not help this season, but McLaren did not really make a step forward this season.

6. Romain Grosjean averages less than 17 points per start

Correct!

Grosjean averaged 15.294 points this season, 260 points over 17 races. It also put Grosjean 17th in the championship. 

Someone must be 17th in this championship. You cannot have 18 drivers finish in the top ten. Grosjean also hasn't been a top ten driver in IndyCar. Before this year, he was 13th in each of his two full seasons. He was moving back from Andretti Global to Juncos Hollinger Racing, a team that prior to this season had two top five finishes in its history.

It was a sufficient season for JHR. Six top ten finishes for Grosjean combined with a podium and another top ten from Conor Daly is better than JHR's past seasons, but it was not showing threatening speed. It felt like JHR had a pattern of one race good, two races bad, one race good, two races bad in 2024d. It is nice that it can have a good day a time or two, but that isn't going to get you better results in the championship.

7. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have at least three races where all three cars finishing in the top ten

Wrong!

This was wildly wrong, and I might have believed too much in Pietro Fittipaldi, but this wasn't even Pietro Fittipaldi's fault. First, Fittipaldi had zero top ten finishes. We were never close to this one being correct, but the team had only three races all season where two cars finished in the top ten. 

Graham Rahal had five top ten finishes for a second consecutive year. Christian Lundgaard dipped from nine top ten finishes to five top ten finishes. RLLR took a step back this year. It had a few good moments this year but it did not match its 2023 season where Lundgaard had the speed to compete for top five finishes and win a race, and Rahal did compete for a victory and won a pole position. RLLR had something finite in 2023, and it was not going to be enough in 2024 as everyone else made adjustments and improved. 

8. Tom Blomqvist's average finish will be greater than 20.0

Correct!

This is not one to celebrate and I did not expect it to go this way. Blomqvist's average finish over his five starts was 22nd. A 31st in the Indianapolis 500 inflated that number a little. That finish alone added 2.25 spots to his average. It is hard to hold this against Blomqvist because he ran five races. If he had run all 17 races, maybe his average would have been better than 20th.

I was surprised Blomqvist got pulled quickly, but in the Leader Circle world of IndyCar, a team cannot afford to lose that $1 million base payment. Meyer Shank Racing did not have it for the #66 entry after the 2023 season. It could not afford to lose it again, and through five races it did not believe it could get there with Blomqvist. It made a change and the team did end up finishing in a Leader Circle spot. 

In a sense, the Leader Circle keeps everyone honest. It is something you must get. You cannot afford to stick it out with a driver and hope he or she improves. You must get results. It might be a good thing IndyCar has it. While it does come down to money and who can bring funding, the Leader Circle does force teams to put in better drivers if the results are not good enough.

9. A.J. Foyt Racing will have multiple top ten finishes

Correct!

Multiple top ten finishes sounds pretty light considering A.J. Foyt Racing went on to have 11 top ten finishes this season, all with Santino Ferrucci. It went from one to 11. That is a big leap, and one nobody saw coming. Two is a low bar to clear. With the Team Penske technical alliance, the over/under would likely have been set a 6.5. Even then, Foyt blew it out of the water. Good for them, and maybe this was too much of a softball on my part.

10. The second-place starting position will produce multiple winners

Correct!

Not only did second-place starting position produce four race winners, second-place starting position produced the most race winners over the 2024 season. This is one year after none of the winners in 2023 started second. In 2022, second on the grid produced seven winners, the most for a grid position that year as well.

Second was not going to be shut out again, but it is quite surprising it was the best. I guess you could argue pole position is the only other position that you would anticipate producing more winners than second, but it is a fluky thing as you can see from 2023. 

11. At least one team ends an oval winless streak that is at least four years long

Correct!

This was another one that was not settled until the final race of the season, really until the final lap of the season, and it looked bleak entering the Nashville season finale. Team Penske had dominated ovals this season and McLaren had won the other. Honda had not won an oval race this season. 

What happened in the season finale? Andretti Global got its first oval victory since Pocono 2018 with Colton Herta! Andretti probably should have won an oval earlier this year. Herta probably should have won one of the Iowa races or one of the Milwaukee races. Herta was due for this result. 

12. Ed Carpenter Racing will fail to put a driver in the top fifteen of the championship

Wrong!

Rinus VeeKay finished 13th in the championship, making his championship form over a five-year IndyCar career be 14th, 12th, 12th, 14th, 13th. Like Alexander Rossi, if you finish between 12th and 14th in the championship for five consecutive seasons, you are likely the 12th, 13th or 14th-best driver in IndyCar, which is frankly the textbook definition of average. Right in the middle of good and bad. 

However, credit to VeeKay because after the Mid-Ohio race, he was 18th in the championship on 125 points. In the final eight races, he picked up five championship positions and he scored 175 points in that time. VeeKay had the tenth-most points in the final eight races, more than three Ganassi drivers, three RLLR drivers, two McLaren drivers and two Meyer Shank Racing drivers. He had good form to end the year, but what does that mean for next year?

Have VeeKay and ECR found something or was this a flash in the pan that got them back to average after a slow start?

Seven-for-12. Not bad, but not great. A dip from last year, but even Álex Palou had a dip from last year. Some of the ambitious predictions did not pay off, but where is the fun if you aren't doing something a little wild? At least there is something to shoot for next year. 

2023: 9/12

2022: 6/12

2021: 4/12

2020: 8/11 (one prediction was about Richmond, which never happened)

2019: 5.5/12

2018: 6/12

2017: 8/12

2016: 6/12

2015: 8/12

2014: 10/14

Champions From the Weekend

You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

The #92 Manthey PureRxcing Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Alex Malykhin and Joel Sturm clinched the FIA Endurance Trophy for LMGT3 Drivers with a runner-up finish in the 6 Hours of Fuji.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Colton Herta, but did you know...

Oscar Piastri won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.

Chris Buescher won the NASCAR Cup race from Watkins Glen. Connor Zilisch won the Grand National Series race on debut.

The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Penske of Kévin Estre, André Lotterer and Laurens Vanthoor won the 6 Hours of Fuji, its second victory of the season. The #54 Vista AF Corse Ferrari of Davide Rigon, Francesco Castellacci and Thomas Flohr won in the LMGT3 class.

Louis Foster won the Indy Lights race from Nashville, his eighth victory of the season.

Hunter Lawrence won the SuperMotocross race from Texas. Haiden Deegan won in the 250cc class, his second victory in as many events.

Coming Up This Weekend

The Singapore Grand Prix caps off a summer sprint for Formula One before its sneaky autumn break. 

IMSA will have a six-hour endurance race around the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

MotoGP is back in action for a second race weekend at Misano.

NASCAR closes out the first round of the playoffs with a Saturday night race at Bristol.

Supercars has an endurance round at the Sandown 500.

Super GT is at Sportsland SUGO.

Monza hosts the penultimate round of the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup season.

World Superbike makes its debut at the Cremona Circuit.

2023 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

This is our final set of predictions revisited, and these are predictions of the two-wheel variety. From the glitz of the grand prix scene to the forgotten about World Superbike championship to the dirt of Supercross and Motocross, we were looking at all of it prior to the start of 2023. There were some tense championship battles across the board. There were some predictions that were wildly wrong. A few were close. A few were right. See for yourself. 

MotoGP

1. Marc Márquez finishes in the top five of the championship

Wrong!

What can I say? I was optimistic that 2023 would be the year for the Marc Márquez turnaround. Third time's the charm, right? It looked very promising at the first round where Márquez started on pole position in Portugal and finished third in the first sprint race. However, that was the high point because Márquez then had a collision with Miguel Oliveira on lap three in the grand prix, which left him with an injury and took him out of the next three races.

That's ok. Márquez has done some special stuff after missing races. While, Márquez kept falling and missed two more races due to a thumb injury. Entering the summer break, he had yet to finish a grand prix with all his points being from sprint races. 

Things improved from there. He scored points in nine of the final 11 grand prix, including a third in Japan, but he could only finish 14th in the championship with 96 points.

2. At no point will one manufacture have won five consecutive pole positions

Wrong!

This one was very wrong. Marc Márquez won the first pole position of the season in Portugal for Honda. Ducati won the next two before Aleix Espargaró won pole positions for Aprilia at Jerez. 

Ducati then went on to win 15 consecutive pole positions from Le Mans in May through Qatar in November. Maverick Viñales ended the streak taking pole position for the Valencia finally, but even then Viñales didn't start first in the grand prix due to a three-spot penalty for not respecting the black flag with orange circle during the warm-up session, meaning Francesco Bagnaia inherited the top spot. 

Viñales still got credit for the Valencia pole position, not that it matter as this prediction was shot in Austria in July. 

3. The Ducati Desmosedici GP22 will have at least four podium finishes

Correct!

This might have been setting the bar low, but we weren't sure how good the Desmosedici GP23 would be. Ducati was stellar whether it was the new bike or the year-old bike. 

The Desmosedici GP22 was on the podium in the opening race with Marco Bezzecchi. In the next round, Bezzecchi won and Álex Márquez was third. Luca Marini was then third in Austin and this prediction was fulfilled in the third round. 

The Desmosedici GP22 ended up with 13 podium finishes this season. Along with Bezzecchi's victory in Argentina, he won at Le Mans and in India. Fabio Di Giannantonio made it four victories for the GP22 in Qatar. 

4. There will be at least seven occasions where the sprint race winner wins the grand prix

Correct!

Eight times the sprint race winner won the grand prix. 

Jorge Martín won both races on four occasions: Germany, Misano, Japan and Thailand.

Francesco Bagnaia was responsible for three of those, Portugal, Italy and Austria.

The only other rider to do it was Aleix Espargaró in Barcelona.

5. Pedro Acosta will be one of the top two Spaniards in the Moto2 championship

Correct!

Not only was Acosta one of the top two Spaniards in Moto2, he was the top ride in Moto2, as Acosta won the championship. The man from Mazarrón won seven races, stood on the podium 14 times and he scored points in 19 of 20 races. The exception was the French Grand Prix. 

Acosta won the title by 83 points over Tony Arbolino. He was 120.5 points clear of Fermín Aldeguer in third, the second best Spaniard in Moto2 this season. Jake Dixon was fourth on 204 points, 128.5 points off Acosta. Spaniard Arón Canet rounded the top five, 137.5 points behind Acosta.

6. There will be South American winners in multiple classes

Correct!

The one that was not a surprise was Brazilian Eric Granado winning the fourth race of the MotoE season at Mugello. Granado has now won a race in five consecutive MotoE season. 

The next South American victory would be Colombia's David Alonso winning at Silverstone in Moto3. It was the first of four victories for Alonso this season as he won consecutive races at Barcelona and Misano and then won in Thailand.

However, Granado wasn't the only Brazilian winner this year as Diogo Moreira won the Moto3 race in Indonesia. 

Six South American victories this season across the four world championship classes. 

World Superbike/World Supersport

7. Dominique Aegerter will have at least one accident riding in a top three position where he takes down another rider with him

Wrong!

This prediction was always going to be one tougher to track. Aegerter had a rather clean debut season in World Superbike, but he didn't really spend much time at the front. When going oer the lap chart for each round, it became apparent how his season went. 

Obviously, for this prediction to be correct, Aegerter would have had to be in a top three position. Well, he didn't spend a lap in the top three until the SuperPole race from Jerez, the penultimate race of the season. Along with spending all eight laps in the top three of the SuperPole race, he spent 12 of 20 laps in the top three of the final race of the season in Jerez.

With 20 total laps in the top three, Aegerter didn't have one incident during that psan and therefore did not take down another rider with him. Prediction incorrect. 

8. There will be a minimum of two first-time WSBK winners

Wrong!

There were no first-time World Superbike winners this season. 

Álvaro Bautista won 27 of 36 races this season. Toprak Razgatlioglu won seven times. Jonathan Rea won once and Michael Ruben Rinaldi won for the first time in about two years.

However, no first-time winners.

Danilio Petrucci didn't win, the closest he came was second at Most. Andrea Locatelli is still looking for his first career victory and Locatelli was second in the Indonesia SuperPole race. Axel Bassani was even runner-up in a race at Imola. Dominique Aegerter was runner-up in the final SuperPole race of the season in Jerez.

Four riders with no World Superbike victories ended up runner-up this season. So close and yet so far.

9. There will be at least four races where two of Álvaro Bautista, Toprak Razgatlioglu and Jonathan Rea are not on the podium and at least one of those is a SuperPole race

Wrong!

We were on a great track early in the season. 

In the second race from Phillip Island, the third race of the season, Bautista won with Rinaldi and Locatelli on the podium. That was one. 

In the Indonesia SuperPole race, race five of the season, Razgatlioglu won ahead of Locatelli and Alex Lowes was third. 

We were halfway to fulfilling this prediction through five of 36 races. 

Over the final 31 races, two of Bautista, Razgatlioglu and Rea were on the podium each time. In 25 of the final 31 races, Bautista and Razgatlioglu were on the podium. It was Bautista who was the one missing in four of the other six races. 

10. There will be six weekend sweeps or fewer in World Supersport

Wrong!

This one is a little crushing. 

Entering the final round at Jerez, there had been six sweeps.

Nicolò Bulega had swept the round at Phillip Island, Assen, Donington Park, Magny-Cours and Aragón. 

Stefano Manzi swept the Imola round.

What happens in the finale? Bulega swept the final two races. Yep. Of course. 

If you go back to the first weekend of the season, this could have been avoided. Bulega passed Manzi on the final lap in the second race from Phillip Island. Manzi holds on and then the final weekend is moot. 

Supercross/Motocross

11. The Supercross season opener winner will have multiple victories in 2023

Correct!

Eli Tomac pulled off an impressive comeback ride in the Anaheim season opener after he fell but overcame an eight-second deficit to win the season opener. After four consecutive seasons where the Supercross season opener winner did not win again, Tomac put this prediction to bed in the second round, winning in San Diego, fulfilling this prediction as quickly as possible. 

For good measure, Tomac won seven races this season.

12. The SuperMotocross champion will have an average championship finish greater than 2.5 between Supercross and Motocross

Wrong!

What I didn't see coming was the 450cc SuperMotocross champion being the 250cc West Supercross champion. Jett Lawrence moved into the 450cc class for the 2023 Motocross season, where he went 24-for-24, winning every race and taking that championship. I wasn't considering that possible outcome, but I am not going to claim this on a technicality. 

Lawrence was first his Supercross championship and first in his Motocross championship. He won the SuperMotocross championship by winning two of the final three rounds

Ok... five-for-12. Not great. A few tough ones to swallow. It happens. Some years, the tough ones go in your favor. Some years, they do not. 

2023 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

After the third consecutive season with 22 Formula One races, we can finally put a bow on the 2023 season and wrap up with addressing the predictions made for this season nearly a year ago. Some things changed. Many things didn't. Broken records ended up being a common theme this year. There were not many surprises. You could argue there were none. If there were no surprises, how did the predictions turn out? Any incorrect prediction would have gone against expectations, no? Maybe there were some surprises after all.

1. Three teams will have multiple winners

Wrong!

This is what you get for being optimistic. Only two teams won all season. Only three drivers won. That math does not add up. Red Bull won 21 of 22 races. That's it. That's the only team with multiple victories this season. Carlos Sainz, Jr. won at Singapore, Ferrari's only victory. Mercedes went winless for the first time since 2011. McLaren had six runner-up finishes, tied for the most this season with Red Bull. Fernando Alonso was responsible for all eight of Aston Martin's podium finishes. Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon each stood on the podium once for Alpine, but that is the close we got to this prediction being correct. 

2. Red Bull will not win majority of the races where a Ferrari driver starts on pole position

Wrong!

If I got the first one wildly wrong, this one wasn't going to be close to correct either. 

Ferrari started on pole position seven times in 2023. Red Bull won six of them. At least Ferrari was not shut out but it was not favorable for the Scuderia either. Charles Leclerc is feeling the brunt of this prediction. Leclerc has won eight pole positions since his most recent victory and he has failed to win from pole position in 12 consecutive races where he has rolled off from first.  

3. Mercedes will have at least eight podium finishes in the first 11 races of the season

Wrong!

Mercedes had five podium finishes in the first 11 races. Aston Martin had more in the first 11 races than Mercedes. Mercedes did have four fourth-place finishes in those 11 races. Close but not good enough in this game.

4. Oscar Piastri will score at least 30% of McLaren's point total

Correct!

This one turned out to be close because after McLaren's slow start and significant turnaround, Lando Norris was earning points at a faster rate than Oscar Piastri, who still had a wonderful season. Out of McLaren's 302 points, Piastri was responsible for 97 points, or 32.119%. 

It should be pointed out that through nine races McLaren had 29 points. McLaren averaged 21 points per race over the final 13 events! A remarkable turnaround from where the season started. Through the first nine races, Piastri had five points. He scored 92 points in the final 13 races, an average of 7.0769 points per start. 

5. Alpine will have at least one classified car in the 17th race of the season

Correct!

Entering this season, the team operating as Alpine had failed to have a classified car in the 17th race of the season in three of the prior four years. This year, at Qatar, how did this team do? Both cars made it to the finish with Esteban Ocon picking up six points for a seventh-place finish while Pierre Gasly scored no points but saw the checkered flag in 12th. Progress.

6. Logan Sargeant will score less than 47% of Alexander Albon's point total

Correct!

This one might have never been in question, but Sargeant didn't really come close to giving Albon a run for his money in the Williams' stable this year. Sargeant scored one point, or 1/27th or 3.7037% of Albon's point total this season. The American driver's only point was fittingly for finishing tenth in the United States Grand Prix in Austin, and it really only came because Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were disqualified for illegal skid block wear. 

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. It wasn't a horrid season by any stretch for Sargeant, but he didn't impressive anyone either.

7. Nico Hülkenberg's first point scoring race finish of the season will not be a seventh-place finish

Wrong!

Entering 2023, Hülkenberg's first points scoring finish of the season had been seventh-place in five of the previous seven seasons. Where did Hülkenberg finish for his first points finish this season? 

That would be seventh in the third round of the season, the Australian Grand Prix. It nearly wasn't that case as Carlos Sainz, Jr. was fourth on the road but a five-second time penalty for causing a collision knocked Sainz, Jr. out of the points. There were also four cars that were taken out in the one restart on lap 57. Plenty of circumstances conspired together to see Hülkenberg finish seventh for his first points of the season again. 

8. Nyck de Vries will clinch the intra-team, head-to-head AlphaTauri battle by the Qatar Grand Prix

Wrong!

De Vries didn't even make it to the Qatar Grand Prix, replaced after the British Grand Prix with Daniel Ricciardo taking his seat. De Vries went 2-8 head-to-head with Yuki Tsunoda in their ten races together as teammates. De Vries was 12th at Monaco while Tsunoda was 15th. At Austria, de Vries was 17th with Tsunoda in 19th. 

That was it. Heck, this prediction was wrong before de Vries was even canned. Once Tsunoda beat him at Montreal this prediction was wrong and could not be flipped. It was not a great experience for de Vries at AlphaTauri, but he will always have the 2022 Italian Grand Prix.

9. Lance Stroll does not cause an accident on a straightaway

Correct!

No one can act like this was a spectacular season for Lance Stroll. In a year where his teammate beat him by 132 points in the championship and Aston Martin ended up finishing fifth despite being third and 97 points clear of fifth at the halfway point of the season, Stroll performed to the minimum level of this car. There must be at least a dozen drivers in the world who could have scored 23 points more than Stroll did in 2023 and at least kept Aston Martin in the top four. 

Points aside, this prediction was about Stroll's driving and after looking back to see if he had an accident on a straightaway, I cannot find one. He had a few incidents in corners, including one coming onto a straightaway, but none were Stroll running into another driver going in a straight line. Again, progress. 

10. There will be a driver who gets his first career fastest lap

Correct!

Not only was there a driver who got his first career fastest lap, there were two drivers that had their first career fastest laps. 

We had to wait for a while, but the first was Oscar Piastri was the Italian Grand Prix. The second was Yuki Tsunoda at the United States Grand Prix. Nine drivers had a fastest lap this season. 

No surprise, Max Verstappen led the way with nine. Lewis Hamilton had four. Sergio Pérez and Piastri each ended the season with two, Piastri's second was at Las Vegas. Guanyu Zhou had the fastest lap in the season opener. George Russell's only fastest lap was at Baku. Fernando Alonso's fastest lap at Zandvoort was his first fastest lap in over six years. There was the aforementioned Tsunoda. Lando Norris picked up fastest lap on his way to finishing runner-up at Interlagos. 

11. A safety car period will occur during at least two sprint races

Correct!

The first safety car period in a sprint race came in the first sprint race of the season at Baku after Yuki Tsunoda had an accident after only two laps. 

The second safety car period in a sprint race came at Spa-Francorchamps when Fernando Alonso spun off course and beached his car on lap three. 

12. Average American viewership per race decreases by at least 10%

Wrong!

But this one was fairly close. Thanks to the internet, we were able to track the ratings for each Formula One race shown in the United States and we know the average viewership this year was 1,093,273 viewers that is down from 1,210,000 average viewership in 2022, but that was only a 9.64% decrease. Close, but close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades.

I think we all can admit the Las Vegas race got a better television rating than expected and that likely saved it from the 10% decrease.

Six-for-12 or 50%. Kind of streaky, no? Three wrong then three correct. Two wrong then three correct. One wrong to cap it off. There have been worse sets of predictions, but there have also been far better ones as well. It was at least on par with last year.

2023 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

The sports car seasons have just ended, but they will begin soon as the 2023-24 Asian Le Mans Series begins in ten days from Sepang. With the next season so close to starting, we must review what happened in 2023 and all the seasons that have since closed. It was an exciting year as the LMDh class made its debut in WEC and IMSA. It was also a sad season as the GTE class bid adieu in the world championship. How did these predictions turn out? Well...

World Endurance Championship

1. Toyota will not finish on the podium at Le Mans

Wrong!

This was always an ambitious prediction, hoping the new wave of Hypercar and LMDh cars would bring an abundance of competition and Toyota would have some rough days, including at Le Mans. Well, Toyota never had that much adversity. It did have the #7 Toyota retire from Le Mans due to an accident, but the #8 Toyota finished second and on the lead lap. It was the second best car in the race. 

Cadillac was third and fourth, but didn't really have the pace to beat Toyota. The only hope was a mechanical issue. That didn't happen and Toyota remained on the Le Mans podium for another year.

2. At least three different manufacturers win overall

Wrong!

This one did not quite happen, and was not that close. Toyota won six of seven races. Ferrari's Le Mans triumph will be remember, but no other manufacturer was close. Cadillac had respectable pace, but not race winning pace. Porsche was slower than Cadillac. Peugeot is behind despite the program have more track time than the other three mentioned. 

Either way, Toyota was the best. If anything, Ferrari maybe should have had one or two more victories, but that is it. Perhaps 2024 sees a little more variety on the top step of the podium. 

3. At least eight drivers with Formula One experience score a class victory

Wrong!

This was close, and fell disappointingly short. 

We got one in the first race of the season at Sebring with Kamui Kobayashi. 

We got halfway there in the second race at Portimão when Sébastien Buemi and Brandon Hartley won overall and Giedo van der Garde won in LMP2. Van der Garde only won because he was a substitute at United Autosport because Tom Blomqvist had IMSA responsibilities at Long Beach.That is four in two races. Good pace.

We hit five when Robert Kubica won in LMP2 at the third round at Spa-Francorchamps. 

Antonio Giovinazzi made it six with his victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. In four races, we hit six and needed two more in the final three races.

Pietro Fittipaldi made it seven in five races when he won at Monza in LMP2. 

However, we didn't get one more Formula One-experienced driver to win in the final two races. This despite having the likes of André Lotterer, Paul di Resta, Jean-Éric Vergne, Will Stevens, Stoffel Vandoorne, Jacques Villeneuve, Gianmaria Bruni and Daniil Kvyat competing at some point.

4. An overall winner will have a double-digit odd-number

Correct!

Hey! We got one! It was the #51 Ferrari of Antonio Giovinazzi, Alessandro Pier Guidi and James Calado winning at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. We went 50 races between double-digit odd-number winning car numbers in WEC, from Shanghai 2015 to Le Mans 2023. 

IMSA

5. At least one manufacturer in GTP does not win a race

Wrong!

If it wasn't for one post-race technical infraction at Watkins Glen, this prediction would have been correct, because if the #6 Porsche was above board then the #25 BMW would not have inherited the Watkins Glen victory, meaning BMW would not have won a race in 2023. 

To be fair, BMW was much more competitive than we expected, especially after the first race of the season. BMW already had two runner-up finishes prior to that Watkins Glen victory. 

6. No team in any of the classes has more than three runner-up finishes

Wrong!

It felt like there was no way this one would happen again. No way! Then Vasser Sullivan had one of the most consistent seasons in IMSA history and the #14 Lexus of Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth finished runner-up not once, not twice, not three times but five times as the #14 Lexus had nine podium finishes in 11 races.

7. There will be a winning driver in the Indianapolis race that has won at Indianapolis before

Correct!

And you would never guess who fulfilled this prediction! It wasn't a past Indianapolis 500 winner or a past United States Grand Prix winner. There were none in this race. It wasn't a past Brickyard 400 winner. Again, none in this race. There were a few past winners from first time Grand-Am/IMSA raced on the IMS road course, but none of those won.

So who was it? 

Daniel Juncadella, who won the 2022 Indianapolis 8 Hour! In 2023, Juncadella won with Jules Gounon in the #79 WeatherTech Racing Mercedes-AMG. Who would have thought of all the drivers, Juncadella would have been the one?

8. Italian manufacturers combine for at least four class victories

Wrong!

I am not even going to get technical and count the Dallara-built Cadillac V-Series.R in GTP because that was not in the spirit of this prediction. I was talking about Ferrari and Lamborghini, and they won once, with a surprise winner nonetheless. 

Who had the only Lamborghini victory as being the #78 Forte Racing Powered by US RaceTronics of Misha Goikhberg, Patrick Liddy and Loris Spinelli in GTD at Petit Le Mans? 

Risi Competizione was second at Watkins Glen in GTD Pro with the #62 Ferrari. That was the closest a Ferrari got to a victory in 2023. Lamborghini was second at Indianapolis in GTD with the same #78 Forte Racing entry.

European Le Mans Series

9. The GTE Class will have a repeat winner before LMP2 and LMP3

Wrong!

Not including the LMP2 Pro-Am subclass, the first repeat winner was the #17 Cool Racing Ligier-Nissan of Adrien Chila, Alex García and Marcos Siebert in LMP3, which was victories in the season opener at Barcelona and the third round at Aragón. 

GTE had two repeat winners, the #77 Proton Competition Porsche won the second round at Circuit Paul Ricard and the penultimate round at Portimão. The #16 Proton Competition Porsche won the bookends to the season at Barcelona and Portimão. 

10. There will be an Iberian winner in one of the Iberian races

Wrong!

Not only was this wrong and there were no Iberian winners in any of the FOUR Iberian races, one more than originally scheduled after the Imola round was lost due to pit and paddock renovations and Portimão was made a doubleheader, but there wasn't even a Spaniard that competed in ELMS this year. 

There were a few Portuguese drivers. Miguel Cristóvão was runner-up at the season opener in Barcelona. That is as close as we got.

Miscellaneous

11. The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters champion will be a non-German from continental Europe

Correct!

It was Austria's Thomas Preining! The first non-German champion from continental Europe since Mattias Ekström in 2007. The good news is if Preining fell short, there were a few other drivers on the doorstep to fulfill this prediction. Italian Mirko Bortolotti was second and Swiss Ricardo Feller was third. The top German driver was René Rast in fifth.

12. No Belgian will in the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship

Correct!

Speaking of Feller, Ricardo Feller was the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup co-champion along with Sammarinese Mattia Drudi. The #40 Tresor Orange1 Audi won four of ten races and finished on the podium seven times. In second was the #88 AKKodis ASP Team Mercedes-AMG of Swiss-Italian Raffaele Marciello and Russian-bor Timur Boguslavskiy, 19 points behind Feller and Drudi. The all-Belgian duo and 2022 champions of Dries Vanthoor and Charles Weerts were third in the #32 Team WRT BMW, 23 points back. 

Not great. Four out of 12. If I was a baseball player, .333 is a great season, but this isn't baseball and one out of three is quite bad.

2023 NASCAR Predictions: Revisited

It was an anniversary season for NASCAR, as the 75th Cup season took place. It felt like many that came before it, but there were some differences. There was a street race in Chicago. North Wilkesboro returned and hosted the All-Star Race. Both those events occurred in wet conditions, one was just damp and the other was during historic rainfall. Add to it, we had a debutant winner for the first time in over 60 years! There was also a first-time champion and the fifth different champion in the last five seasons.

With the season behind us, let's review some predictions made about 2023 prior to the season and see how those turned out.

1. At least three winless drivers make the Cup playoffs

Correct!

Three winless drivers made the Cup playoffs, and even in a season where 15 drivers ended up winning a Cup race, those three winless drivers remained winless through the end of the season. Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick and Bubba Wallace all made the playoffs despite no victories. This happened one year after 15 drivers made the playoffs with a victory and a record-tying 19 different drivers won a race. 

2. At least two new teams make the Cup playoffs

Correct!

Welcome to the playoffs Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Front Row Motorsports and JTG Daugherty Racing! There were three new playoff teams this year compared to 2022. JTG Daugherty got this prediction halfway there in the first race of the season when Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the the Daytona 500.

RFK Racing had both its cars in a comfortable position on points to make the playoffs but Chris Buescher assured the team's participation with a victory at Richmond. Brad Keselowski made it anyway on points. For good measure, Front Row Motorsports made it when Michael McDowell won a beatdown on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

3. Kyle Busch wins at least two pole positions in the Cup Series

Wrong!

Busch did win a pole position, it came at Gateway in June and he won that race from pole position, but it was Busch's only pole position of 2023. He came close to a second pole position. He started second in both Richmond races. He did start first at Dover, but qualifying was washed out, so that doesn't count. He had eight top five starting positions this season, but this was his fifth consecutive season without winning multiple pole positions.

4. Every driver that makes the round of eight will have double-digit top ten finish totals entering that round

Correct!

The final eight drivers were William Byron, Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. Here were there top ten finish totals entering the semifinal round:

Byron - 18

Truex - 15

Hamlin - 16

Larson - 15

Buescher - 15

Bell - 16

Reddick - 14

Blaney - 14

There you have it. They were all on 14 or more top ten finishes entering the final four races. Bubba Wallace nearly spoiled this prediction, as he had only eight top ten finishes at the time the semifinal round began and he was knocking on the door of a final eight position.

5. Denny Hamlin will be in the top five on raw points for at least 15 races

Correct!

This did not get off on the right note. Hamlin's penalty for deliberate contact at Phoenix with Ross Chastain knocked him down to 15th in the championship. Hamlin would not progress into the top five in the championship until he won at Kansas in May. He remained in the top five after Dover, but he dropped out after Charlotte when Hamlin was taken out of the race from contact with Chase Elliott.

Hamlin would not get back into the top five on raw points until Loudon in July. On raw points, Hamlin remained in the top five from Loudon through the end of the season, 17 races. Add that to the two races in May and Hamlin was in the top five on raw points after 19 of 36 races.

6. A.J. Allmendinger makes it to at least the round of 12 in the Cup playoffs

Wrong!

Allmendinger did not make the playoffs in what was a rather underwhelming season for him and the Kaulig Racing operation. The season started well with a sixth-place finish in the Daytona 500, but Allmendinger did not have another top ten finish until sixth at Sonoma in June. That spark an early summer bump in results with a tenth at Nashville and a third at Atlanta, but his only other top ten finish in there regular season was fourth at Watkins Glen. 

He ended the regular season 21st in points but 96 points off making the playoffs. Of course, Allmendinger went on to win the Charlotte playoff race, meaning if he had made the round of 12 he would have advanced to the round of eight. Funny how these things play out.

7. Project 91 will start fewer than six races

Correct!

It is hard to deny Trackhouse's Project 91, an initiative to get drivers from other motorsports disciplines into a NASCAR Cup race has not been a success, considering it won a race, but the program has not lived up to what team owner Justin Marks sold us. Marks said the plan was to run the Project 91 car at "six to eight races."

We got three with two drivers. Kimi Räikkönen came back after running at Watkins Glen in 2022 and Räikkönen was 29th at Austin this year. 

The big one was Shane van Gisbergen, who showed up and won on debut in a sensational drive in the inaugural Chicago street race. Van Gisbergen returned for the IMS road course race and finished tenth, becoming the first driver to finish in the top ten of his first two Cup Series starts since Terry Labonte in 1978. 

However, Indianapolis was the final race for Project 91 in 2023, running only three events, half of the minimum that was initially hoped for. It has led to van Gisbergen signing a NASCAR contract with Trackhouse, so it has worked as a recruiting tool, but I believe I had this one.

8. At least one championship ineligible driver wins multiple times in NASCAR's second division

Correct!

Back in December, when I wrote these predictions, I listed six drivers as possible options to get this prediction correct. The driver that did it was none of those six drivers. If you made me list the drivers most likely to make this prediction a successful prediction back in December, the driver that did it likely would not have made my top ten and I don't think I would have had him in my top twenty. 

Who was it?

It was A.J. Allmendinger! 

Allmendinger won twice in Kaulig Racing's #10 entry. He won at Austin and then he won at Nashville. Allmendinger was the only championship ineligible driver to win multiple times in NASCAR's second division this season.

9. Sheldon Creed has at least five top five finishes in the first 17 races of the Grand National Series

Wrong!

Creed only had seven top five finishes this season, only two of which were in the first 17 races this season.  He was third at Phoenix in March and second at Talladega in May, meaning he was on pace for falling just short of five top five finishes in the first 17 races through the first nine events. Creed did end the season with five top five finishes in the final 11 races, four of which were runner-up results. Strange year.

10. Chase Elliott does not win the SRX season finale

Correct!

Not only did Elliott did not win the SRX finale this season, he didn't even run an SRX race after winning the finale in each of the first two seasons of the series. Of course, Elliott had his own off-track issues this year, which likely made a one-night extracurricular unlikely to be approved this year from Rick Hendrick. At least it is the offseason and Elliott has more time to get back on the slopes.

11. Layne Riggs averages 27 points or more per Truck start

Wrong!

The official record book will say Layne Riggs had no points in three Truck starts this season. However, Riggs changed championship eligibility midseason. Prior to sacrificing those points, Riggs had 62 points for an average of 20.667. It was a shame he didn't get more starts, but it was nice that Riggs ran three races in NASCAR's second division and he scored 71 points, an average of 23.667. 

12. Jimmie Johnson's average finish in the Cup Series will be worse than 18.588

Correct!

In Johnson's part-time return to Cup racing driving for Legacy Motor Club, he made three starts with finishes of 31st, 38th and 37th an average of 35.333. Most Cup races only have a starting grid of 36 cars, so it is quite impressive for Johnson to have such a poor average finish. He went to IndyCar and came back to NASCAR a worse driver. Such a shame. 

Please recognize sarcasm. 

Eight for 12 this year, slightly down from the year before, but still not a bad showing. Hitting on two-thirds is kind of the minimum standard. It is better than half, but not too low to be disappointing. It isn't high enough to flip for joy over. It is perfectly adequate.