For the final week of 2013 I have made predictions on many different forms of motorsport in 2014. With today being the final day of 2013 we wrap up our predictions by taking a look at the IndyCar series.
1. The Series Will Get A Title Sponsor
After a roller coaster ride with Izod, IndyCar finds themselves without a title sponsor but with the hiring of former NASCAR team owner Jay Frye the search is on by the folks at 16th and Georgetown and they will get the job done. I am not sure who the title sponsor will be, I am not sure if it's a current sponsor within the series taking on a larger role but by this time next year, the series will be sponsored.
2. Honda Will Nip Chevrolet in the Manufactures' Championship
After two years of using a single turbocharged engine, Honda is moving to a twin-turbo same as Chevrolet. Last year the American manufacture barely beat their Japanese rivals in the fight for the manufactures' title needing to win the final race at Fontana to win 10-9. Honda won six of seven races at one point and were by far the better of the two on road and street courses while Chevrolet had the upper hand on most ovals. Despite losing Ganassi Racing to Chevrolet, Honda picked up Andretti Autosport and will have Simon Pagenaud and Schmidt Peterson Racing coming off finishing third in the championship. Not to mention the likelihood Justin Wilson returns to Dale Coyne Racing after finishing sixth in the championship. Both are equally matched when it comes to talent but Honda appears to have the wave of momentum on their side after
3. Takuma Sato Will Not Make It To Fontana With AJ Foyt Racing
The Japanese driver gave Super Tex his first win in over a decade at Long Beach earlier this year but after Indianapolis Sato had only one top ten and eight finishes of twentieth or worse. Seeing that pattern weakens my confidence he will be given a full season to get results. While Foyt has given drivers a long leash and has a tendency to not fire drivers midseason, a string of retirements to begin the season for Sato leads you to think Foyt will be looking for a driver on the market quickly.
4. This Will Be The Only Season Ending By Labor Day
The series-implemented season finale by Labor Day weekend has tied IndyCar's hand behind their back when it comes to scheduling and I think when they start working on the 2015 schedule they will realize the corner they put themselves in. Even if an international series took place in January and February that doesn't solve the problems with the North American schedule. With place such as Road America, Austin, Michigan, Baltimore, Phoenix and Laguna Seca all still interested in hosting IndyCar in the future, the series is going to realize how difficult it will be to accommodate all these rounds even if they start at the beginning of March. If they get even half of the races listed above they will still need an extra month at the end of the season.
5. Scott Dixon Will Remain The Championship Favorite
He is the most talented driver, on one of the three top teams and is only thirty-three years old. Dixon may have lost Dario Franchitti as a teammate but he gains Tony Kanaan and Ryan Briscoe. Those additions both help and hurt Dixon's chances for a fourth career title. He has two experienced drivers to bounce car setups off of but also has two teammates capable of taking victories and fistful of points away from him. Not to forget mentioning Charlie Kimball who can beat Dixon straight up, head-to-head without help from a misfortunate mechanical failure or accident. Dixon's got great odds to repeat but at the same time his own teammates have the best shot of keeping him from another title.
6. Marco Andretti Will Be A Man On A Mission
After having the best season of his career so far, Marco Andretti ended the season looking for more. He finished fifth in points but was winless and Andretti Autosport failed to score a victory in the second half of 2013 after winning five in the first half. He was able to get the finishes necessary to defeat his teammates, champion Ryan Hunter-Reay and three-time race winner James Hinchcliffe and showed he had the car to beat on all the ovals and even a few road and street courses. With the move to Honda Andretti Autosport becomes arguably the their top team along with Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Racing as to move out of the shadow of Penske Racing at Chevrolet.
7. Will Power Will Be A Man On A Mission
In victory lane after his win in the season finale at Fontana Will Power was as fired up as he has ever been before. After winning three of the final five races in 2013, Power looks to get back in the championship hunt after finishing fourth in 2013, ending a three year streak of runner-up finishes. Power's 2013 season did not start well at all. Was run over at St. Petersburg, abysmal runs at São Paulo and Indianapolis, didn't score a podium until Milwaukee, Power turned his season around in the second half with two additional top fives to go along with his victories. He is arguably the most talented driver on the grid and knows he is now capable to win on each track discipline.
8. Juan Pablo Montoya Will Not Finish In The Top Ten of Points
If Tony Kanaan couldn't finish in the top ten of points last year, what makes you think Montoya will in his first season in an open-wheel car since 2006 and first in IndyCar since 2000? He will have good runs but with the depth of the field and learning curve Montoya faces a top ten finish after eighteen races will be an impressive performance for him, even with him driving for Penske Racing.
9. There Will Be An International Series
It may not be pretty but the folks at Hulman and Co. will get some type of international series announced for IndyCar. It probably won't begin until January 2015 but this time next year, there will be international events awaiting us early in the new year. Races will be predominantly in Asia and probably will be predominantly street courses instead of permanent facilities.
10. There Won't Be Enough Rides For Everyone
I touched on this before but I am going to reiterate it here. As of New Years' Eve, twenty teams appear to be set. If the grid stays at twenty-four for 2014, that leaves four seats to be filled with drivers Simona de Silvestro, Oriol Servià, Alex Tagliani, James Jakes, EJ Viso, Conor Daly, Tristan Vautier, Sebastián Saavedra, EJ Viso, Sam Bird, Pippa Mann, Stefan Wilson, Luiz Razia, Bruno Senna, Sage Karam and Jack Hawksworth all looking for rides.
The next question is which teams field those additional four cars? Panther Racing will probably have something but the National Guard sponsorship will play into who the team hires. KV Racing could field a second car alongside Sébastien Bourdais. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing can field a second car and if they land the National Guard sponsorship that would make it much easier to field a second car. Dale Coyne Racing always finds a way to field a second car and with all signs pointing to Justin Wilson returning to that team and that second car coming off a win in 2013, it may be a better seat than we all realize. Could Dreyer & Reinbold Racing return to full-time competition in 2014?
It's great that so many talented drivers are interested in IndyCar but it's always tough pill to swallow when talented drivers can't get a ride.
11. There Won't Be Ten Winners But It Will Be Close
Year three of the DW12 chassis will still allow for smaller teams to compete for victories but it won't be as wide open as 2013. As of now, sixteen drivers confirmed for 2014 have at least one career win with a few more still on the sidelines looking for rides. Let's say at least two different drivers win from Andretti, Ganassi and Penske, that's six with the likes of Pagenaud, Wilson, Rahal, Bourdais, Conway and Carpenter unaccounted for. Any less than six different winners from at least four different teams seems unimaginable for IndyCar, this coming only five seasons after Penske and Ganassi won all but one race in 2009.
12. Texas Is On Life Support
The track signed a one-year deal to bring IndyCar back for another year and 2014's race will be 600-kilometers but the race will not be on ABC. Attendance for IndyCar at Texas has dropped significantly in recent years but it still draws a respectable crowd in IndyCar terms. My feeling is Eddie Gossage will pull the plug unless the race sees a mass influx of people through the turnstiles. The knockout blow for this race maybe the fact the 2014 X Games at Circuit of the Americas in Austin take place the same weekend as the Texas IndyCar race. Let me not forget to mention that Robby Gordon's Stadium Super Truck Series will be at the X Games in 2014 and rally cross will probably also be on the X Games bill. It's not looking good for Eddie Gossage and Texas Motor Speedway which means it's not looking good for IndyCar either.
13. Allan Bestwick or Vince Welch Will Be Lead Announcer For ABC
With NASCAR leaving ESPN and ABC after 2014 and NBC having already announcing Rick Allen and Jeff Burton will be their commentary team, Bestwick's future calling NASCAR appears over for the near future. With that said, he still has a contract at ESPN/ABC, why not move him over to do IndyCar and the Indianapolis 500? In 2014, everything is at Indianapolis besides St. Petersburg and Belle Isle which is before the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series coverage begins on ESPN/ABC. Bestwick is an experienced announcer and would be a logical choice to join the likes of Sid Collins, Paul Page and Bob Jenkins as voice of the Indianapolis 500. However, Bestwick has mostly called NASCAR in his career and a switch to IndyCar may not what ABC has in mind. Besides, who is to say Bestwick won't find a job at Fox or NBC doing NASCAR for 2015? Vince Welch is the next logical selection. He has been covering the series for years and is knowledgeable. The one downside on Welch is he lacks lead commentator experience and it's hard to imagine the guy calling the Indianapolis 500 would have only two races under his belt.
14. The Future Will Remain Uncertain
Despite how great the racing has been, IndyCar struggles for sponsorship dollars and television ratings. It's difficult to see how the ABC broadcast schedule which is focused around the month of May will benefit the NBCSN races afterward but they are trying something different once again in hopes of a boost. As for other events on the schedule, the series has contracts will Pocono, Iowa, Fontana, Long Beach and St. Petersburg but after that most events are question marks. Texas is living off one-year deals as attendance continues to drop. Milwaukee lives year-by-year and hopes a move to August will increase attendance. Houston has moved from October to late-June and it appears that race will move again after 2014. Toronto's future is curious as the 2015 PanAmerican Games coincide the same weekend as the IndyCar event.
IndyCar's future will not become clear tomorrow or next May or next December or the December after that. It will take time for IndyCar to built a fan base, get more sponsors interested in the series and have stable footing. Until then everyone needs to remain patience and work together and not fall apart when the going gets tough.
I hope you have enjoyed these predictions as well as the ones for Formula One, sports cars, NASCAR and other forms of motorsports across the globe. I wish all of you a Happy New Year and don't worry, the racing season begins in just a few days as AMA Supercross and the Dakar Rally get underway and testing for the 24 Hours of Daytona begins as well.
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