For the final week of 2013 a list of predictions of what could happen in a few different motorsport series in 2014 will be posted and today we look at NASCAR.
1. This Is Going To Be Dale Earnhardt, Jr's Year
If he can start 2014 the way he ended 2013 and pick up victories, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will be contending for a championship. While being with the best team is an advantage for him being teamed with the two best drivers of the past twenty years could be the only obstacle keeping him from that elusive championship. Junior had a great 2013 season but couldn't break through and get a win. He had five runner-up finishes including three in the final ten races. This is the year where Junior finally gets races going his way. No more great runs to only finish second or being bit by a mechanical failure late in a race to cost him dearly. 2014 will be Dale Earnhardt, Jr's year.
2. Stewart-Haas Racing Will Be Average
Ten years ago if you had told me Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Danica Patrick would all be on the same team I would have probably told you put down the bottle but here it is. Despite their talent, I don't think Stewart-Haas will be lighting the world on fire. Tony Stewart is returning from a broken leg but at forty-two he is on the back nine of his career and you can only wonder if he can still contend for a championship. Jeff Gordon is also forty-two and had a really good season in 2013 but it took him until Martinsville in October to get a victory and he hasn't finished in the top five in points since 2009.
Harvick is coming off finishing third in the standings with four wins and was eligible for the championship until the final race. He has finished third in the standings three of the last four seasons but can he make a Matt Kenseth-esque transition from the team of his youth to a new team in 2014? Can the personalities work together? Stewart, Harvick and Busch have all had their run-ins with one another. If they can let cooler heads prevail and work together this could be a force to be reckon with but the competition is as tough as ever. From Hendrick to Gibbs to Roush to Penske, all these teams are just as capable as Stewart-Haas as being a dominant force.
Last year showed how difficult making the top twelve actually is. Stewart-Haas struggled to get going but ultimately was able to get Ryan Newman in the Chase. Brad Keselowski failed to make the Chase after winning the championship the year prior. Denny Hamlin couldn't recover after missing four races due to injuries. There are easily eighteen drivers you would think would be locks for making the Chase but someone is going to struggle and with all the changes I think that team will be Stewart-Haas in 2014.
3. Matt Kenseth Will Recover From Losing The Title
Despite coming so close to the championship in 2013, Matt Kenseth will come back and be a contender for the title again in 2014. Look for him to pick up another six or seven wins as the Wisconsinite has made himself the number one driver at Joe Gibbs Racing after only one season at the team.
4. There Will Be A First Time Winner But It Won't Be A Rookie
AJ Allmendinger will get a win in 2014. His best chances will be the road course races and of course anyone can win a restrictor plate race but Allmendinger had a respectable abbreviated 2013 season. JTG Daugherty Racing isn't going to make Allmendinger a threat for the championships but they should give him a good enough car that he could steal a win in 2014.
5. The Rookie Class Won't Disappoint
After years of less than stellar rookie classes, 2014 features six talented young drivers, each facing their own set of hurdles. Kyle Larson and defending NASCAR Nationwide Series champion Austin Dillon are the favorites for Rookie of the Year. Dillon moves to the Cup side of Richard Childress Racing where he will join Paul Menard and Ryan Newman. Menard is entering his fourth season at RCR while Newman moves to RCR after five at Stewart-Haas. While Dillon did win the Nationwide title, he failed to win a race in the 2013 championship and in his six Cup starts in 2013, his best finish was fourteenth at Michigan but was in the top five at Talladega before being spun to end the race.
Larson replaces Juan Pablo Montoya at Earnhardt Ganassi Racing where he will join Jamie McMurray. EGR has yet to break through as a top team in Cup having only made the Chase once since the two teams merged prior to the 2009 season. Larson won the 2013 Nationwide Series Rookie of the Year after finishing eighth in the points. Larson ended 2013 with his fourth runner-up finish of the season. The Californian ended 2013 with nine top-fives and seventeen top tens.
Jason Allgaier moves up to Cup with Phoenix Racing after five full-time season in the Nationwide Series. In those five seasons, Allgaier finished sixth or better in the standings each year and won three races. Michael Annett joins Tommy Baldwin Racing in 2014. Annett missed eight races in the 2013 Nationwide Series season after suffering a fractured sternum in the season opener at Daytona. Annett would finish fifteenth in the final standings. In the four previous season, Annett finished in the top ten of points three times, with fifth in the 2012 season being his career-best.
Swan Racing expands to two cars for Parker Kilgerman and Cole Whitt in 2014. Kilgerman finished ninth in the 2013 Nationwide Series standings while Whitt ran part-time and finished twenty-first. Whitt had finished seventh in the 2012 standings after driving for JR Motorsports.
While Dillon and Larson are the favorites for Rookie of the Year, the other four rookies will hold their own in less equipment.
6. NASCAR Will Not Limited Cup Drivers Participation In The Nationwide Series
Despite only four Nationwide Series races being won by championship eligible drivers and the champion himself going winless in 2013, NASCAR will not make any rule to limited Cup drivers from competing in the Nationwide Series. It's a shame because the Nationwide Series has talented drivers who would put on their own good races. Expect Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano to split two-thirds of the races in 2014 with the other third being split by other Cup drivers with a race or two maybe falling into the laps of Nationwide Series Championship eligible drivers.
7. Iowa Speedway Will Get A Cup Race In 2015
NASCAR bought the track in November and despite all reports saying otherwise, Iowa will get a Cup race come 2015. Despite the facility capacity being smaller than any other track on the Cup schedule, Iowa is a track deserving of a Cup race. It wouldn't surprise if Iowa gets a race at the expense of one from either Dover or Michigan.
8. Jimmie Johnson Will Be Knocking On The Door For A Seventh Title
When have you gone into a season and not been expecting Jimmie Johnson to win the title? The six titles in eight seasons aside, Johnson has finished outside the top five in points only once. ONCE! Only three times in his career has he won less than five races in a season and he has always had twenty or more top ten finishes in a season. The question isn't if he will win his seventh title but rather when and don't think for a second he can't do it in 2014.
With four predictions in the books, tomorrow comes the final list of predictions and that will be for the IndyCar Series.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
